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The best story of the day on Rauner’s property tax “plan”

Wednesday, Sep 3, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Rick Pearson is a state treasure

Local property taxes have long been among the most unpopular forms of taxation. In 1978, then-Gov. Jim Thompson engineered a nonbinding ballot proposal called the “Thompson proposition” that proposed limits on state and local taxes. It also served as a driver for voter turnout in Thompson’s first re-election campaign, though no action was taken.

Charles Wheeler, a longtime statehouse reporter and professor of public affairs reporting at the University of Illinois at Springfield, questioned whether the lack of details from the Rauner camp on the property tax [freeze] and other issues were part of a “cynical” election strategy.

“I can’t believe they’re as uninformed as these things make them sound. It has to be they’re counting on the rest of us being uninformed and taking this nonsense at face value,” Wheeler said.

“Do they want to freeze the levy, freeze the rate, freeze assessments?” Wheeler asked. “How much money does the state get from property taxes? How much goes to the state? Nothing — not a penny.”

Go read the whole thing. Good, solid stuff.

  29 Comments      


Frerichs reserves $1.1 million of TV time

Wednesday, Sep 3, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller

* A million dollars doesn’t buy a huge amount of TV time (Rauner is spending over half a mil this week in Chicago alone), but it’s more than Tom Cross has to spend, for sure

State Sen. Mike Frerichs, D-Champaign, has reserved $1.1 million worth of TV air time in his bid to become Illinois Treasurer, the campaign has confirmed to Early & Often. […]

In June, he closed out the second three months of the year with $1.3 million in his campaign account. By comparison, Cross had about a $500,000 balance for the same period.

“This commanding financial advantage allowed the Frerichs campaign to reserve fall TV time at a significant discount,” a campaign statement reads.

  31 Comments      


*** UPDATED x1 *** You gotta be kidding me

Wednesday, Sep 3, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller

* This is the sort of stupid crud that too often passes for “reform” in DC. Roll Call reports that Congressman Brad Schneider’s new TV ad might be in technical violation of federal election law

Twenty-one seconds into “Together,” the congressman begins his disclaimer: “I’m Brad Schneider and I approve this message because we’re all in this together, accountable to each other.” But the voiceover is coupled with two shots: one of part of the side of Schneider’s face in a shadow as he drives a car and a second shot of him quickly entering a building through a revolving door and barely showing his face.

According to the Federal Election Commission, disclaimers can be conveyed one of two ways:

    A full-screen view of the candidate making the statement (11 CFR 110.11(c)(3)(ii)(A)); or
    A “clearly identifiable photographic or similar image of the candidate” that appears during the candidate’s voice-over statement. (11 CFR 110.11(c)(3)(ii)(B)).

This particular ad doesn’t fulfill the first requirement and may not fulfill the second requirement.

The Schneider campaign claims the law was followed. The ad in question is here.

I suppose there are reasons for this particular law, and we have our own weird laws and rules here (particularly regarding petition signatures). But, geez.

* Also, please raise your hand if you believe that the fine folks at Roll Call found this on their own by scrupulously timing this one particular advertisement out of the many hundreds currently running all over the nation?

Anybody?

I’ve become a firm believer in labeling opposition research for what it is. Just about everybody passes it off as “journalism” and I’ve come to believe that’s just flat-out deceptive.

*** UPDATE *** We may now know where that oppo came from…

Brad Schneider has landed himself in hot water for potentially breaking Federal Election Commission rules. Nathan Gonzales with Rothenberg Political Report/Roll Call unpacks the possible violations below.

The issue is with Brad Schneider’s shadowed face during the disclaimer – an ironic blunder given Schneider’s ongoing attempts to hide information about his tax returns and so-called small business experience.

It looks like Brad Schneider has a lot more work to do to introduce himself to the 44% of constituents who haven’t seen him do enough to form an opinion about him.

Emily Davis
Deputy Communications Director
Congressional Leadership Fund

…Adding… Apparently, the reporter did find it on his own. My apologies. I get pitched silly little dingy stuff like this every day.

  11 Comments      


Republicans continue fight to keep Libertarians off ballot

Wednesday, Sep 3, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller

* The Libertarian Party’s battle to stay on the ballot isn’t over yet. An attorney affiliated with the Illinois Republican Party has filed a motion for judicial review of the State Board of Elections’ ruling allowing the Libertarians ballot access. You can read the motion by clicking here.

Rauner foe Doug Ibendahl is not amused

The appeal was filed the day before Rauner told reporters he was “outraged” and “appalled” over multiple reports that Rauner supporters employed openly armed men in an effort to get Libertarian Party petition signers and circulators to recant their previously sworn representations.
.
The Libertarian Party last week filed criminal complaints with the Office of the Cook County State’s Attorney and the Office of the Illinois Attorney General. Governor Pat Quinn has also called for a full investigation.
.
Meanwhile, Mr. Rauner apparently hasn’t lifted a finger to clean up his own house. At his August 28 press conference, Rauner claimed ignorance and pointed all fingers at the Illinois Republican Party – despite the fact that at least one of Rauner’s salaried campaign staffers was working closely with the armed muscle.
.
Now that Rauner’s camp has moved the ballot access fight to Springfield, it will be interesting to see what kind of “ammunition” his muscle employs next.

* The Libertarians don’t have much time left to file a response. We’ll see what happens.

But, as they say, never bring a knife to a gun-fight. And this obviously is one.

  30 Comments      


Question of the day

Wednesday, Sep 3, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Michael Madigan is to ____ as Bruce Rauner is to ___?

  81 Comments      


New ads target Democratic incumbents

Wednesday, Sep 3, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller

* The New Prosperity Foundation, run by Ron Gidwitz and IMA honcho Greg Baise, is out with a couple new attack ads. The first we’ll listen to is a radio spot which mocks freshman Democrat Cheri Bustos for breaking a promise to give up ten percent of her congressional salary

* The next radio ad claims that Brad Schneider is “one of the richest members of Congress” and blasts him for playing hide the ball with his tax returns

  16 Comments      


Quinn, Rahm tout minimum wage issue

Wednesday, Sep 3, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller

* The minimum wage publicity push is just beginning, so get used to it. Expect to hear lots more about it as the weeks click by. Raising the minimum polls sky high and, of course, there’s that non-binding referendum this November which is designed to bolster turnout.

The general rule of thumb I use is that when my commenters start getting sick of discussing an issue, then it’s just barely starting to penetrate into the rest of the state. So, yeah, you’re sick of hearing that Rauner is rich. Well, most people don’t really know that yet. So, they have to keep pounding and pounding until the message finally burns in. Same with the Democrats’ support for the minimum wage. Like I said above, get used to it.

From a press release…

Governor Pat Quinn today will visit with local residents in communities across Illinois to talk about the importance of raising the minimum wage. The Governor will visit local cafes and fast food restaurants in Kankakee, Champaign, Decatur, Peoria, Galesburg and Rock Falls, to visit with workers and talk about their experiences.

The Governor is taking the minimum wage challenge this week, living off $79, the average amount someone working full time on the minimum wage in Illinois earns per week after housing costs, transportation and taxes. This budget will cover Governor Quinn’s food and living expenses from Sunday, Aug. 31 through Saturday, Sept. 6.

“Those who think that this challenge is a gimmick should spend one day in a minimum wage workers’ shoes,” Governor Quinn said. “Over the past few days I’ve only experienced a small taste of what it’s like to live on minimum wage. Our workers are making painful choices every day. I couldn’t even buy my niece a birthday card - can you imagine what it’s like for a family getting by on minimum wage come Christmas time?”

Raising the minimum wage in Illinois is part of the Governor’s commitment to drive economic growth, alleviate poverty and ensure all workers are treated fairly. Governor Quinn has a plan to raise the minimum wage in Illinois to at least $10 an hour. By increasing the Illinois minimum wage to $10 an hour, a half-million Illinois consumers will make an extra $4,800 a year and much of that extra income will be spent at local businesses on food, clothing and furniture, providing a strong boost to the local economy.

Nearly two-thirds of small-business owners support raising the federal minimum wage because they believe it will help the economy and, in turn, enable them to hire more workers, according to a poll conducted by the Small Business Majority. Leaders from large companies such as Costco, Starbucks and Stride Rite also have supported increasing the minimum wage as a way to reduce employee turnover and improve workers’ productivity.

* From the mayor’s office…

Mayor Rahm Emanuel today signed an Executive Order requiring City contractors and subcontractors to pay employees a minimum wage of $13 per hour for contracts advertised after October 1, 2014. The hourly wage will be indexed to inflation and increase proportionally on a yearly basis thereafter.

“A higher minimum wage is essential to putting a financial floor beneath our hard-working families,” Mayor Emanuel said. “With this Executive action, we’ll help ensure that nobody who is contracted to do work with the City of Chicago will ever have to raise their children in poverty.”

The Executive Order is the first step taken by the City to ensure that all employees contracted with the City of Chicago are provided with sufficient wages for a shot at the middle class. It applies to all service contracts, including construction contracts, advertised after October 1, 2014.

“We made the decision long ago to pay our employees a decent wage that enables them to support their families,” said Deborah Sawyer, President and CEO, Environmental Design International. “Raising the minimum wage is not only good for my employees, but helps reduce worker turnover and improves workplace morale – which helps my bottom line as a small business owner.”

Approximately 1,000 contracted employees will benefit from this Executive Order. These workers are typically employed as landscapers, maintenance workers, security officers, concessionaires, and in custodial services.

  29 Comments      


Quinn slammed for criticizing “job creators”

Wednesday, Sep 3, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller

* This is a $100,000 “targeted online buy” from Americans for Prosperity Illinois. Rate it

…Adding… Script…

The American dream.

Success.

Security.

That’s what Illinois’s governor should want for all of us.

Does Pat Quinn?

He criticizes job creators and business owners for their hard-earned success

He’s raised taxes, increased spending, and hasn’t solved the pension crisis

And while Illinois loses jobs – and paychecks – Pat Quinn’s taken millions in taxpayer dollars as an Illinois elected official

Call Pat Quinn and tell him to focus on helping people get ahead, instead of demonizing those who do.

  32 Comments      


Protected: SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - New outside cable TV buys in legislative races

Wednesday, Sep 3, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller

This post is password protected. To view it please enter your password below:

  Comments Off      


Today’s quotable

Wednesday, Sep 3, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Erickson

Two years after drawing the ire of downstate voters with his plan to shutter prisons and other state facilities, Illinois Gov. Pat Quinn is now highlighting those closures in a new television ad. […]

State Sen. Gary Forby, D-Benton, said the ad shows Quinn is more worried about garnering support in Chicago than in areas south of Interstate 80 where most of the facility closures took place in 2012 and 2013.

He predicted the governor could see a repeat of his 2010 performance when he won just three downstate counties — Jackson, Alexander and St. Clair.

“I’m glad I’m not running this year,” said Forby, who is not up for re-election until 2016.

  30 Comments      


Non-denial denial

Wednesday, Sep 3, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Tom Kacich took note of the Politico story claiming that the DCCC was pulling out of the race against Congressman Rodney Davis

But the DCCC still lists Callis’ campaign in its top-tier “red-to-blue” category and hasn’t canceled any of the TV time it has reserved for Callis, starting later this month.

Asked for a comment on whether the DCCC was yanking its support for Callis, spokesman Brandon Lorenz wrote, “Judge Callis is running a strong campaign talking about her record of reform and holding Congressman Davis accountable for keeping perks like his taxpayer-funded gym during his government shutdown.”

Not really a vote of confidence for Callis.

That’s an understatement.

* Meanwhile, Davis is running his second intro ad, and it’s pretty good

* Script…

I’m Toryn Davis.

Next year I’ll be a freshman in college.

I’m a little nervous but excited to get away from my brothers.

It’s also a little scary to think about how much college costs.

That’s why I’m so proud of my dad, Rodney Davis.

In Congress, he’s fighting to make college more affordable and working just as hard to create jobs, so we all have a better future.

Even them. (points to her brothers, Clark and Griffin).

  32 Comments      


Bo-ring

Wednesday, Sep 3, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Give his campaign credit for a quick turnaround, I suppose, but Gov. Quinn’s new Web ad doesn’t live up to the hype of this press release…

A new Web ad from the Quinn for Illinois campaign features a recent headline from The Washington Post that, “Bruce Rauner spends more on wine than average Illinois households spend on everything.”

The Post piece follows Rauner’s admission that he had paid the more than $140,000 fee to join an exclusive Napa Valley wine club, where he helped to found the winery. The Post notes that the average Illinois household income is about $55,000.

Watch the new Web ad here.

Rauner has outraged Republicans and Democrats with his disingenuous attempt to misrepresent himself, dressing up in Carhartt jackets and touting an $18 watch.

In fact, the billionaire owns nine homes, paid $100,000 for an extra parking spot at one of his extra homes, and owns 23,000 acres (the size of Naperville) in Wyoming and Montana. He took in $53 million in 2012 alone.

Between bottles, Rauner has proposed cutting the minimum wage.

*No fancy wine was harmed during the filming.

* Man, is this thing ever boring

I can’t stop yawning.

* National political writers and bloggers jumped all over this story. Bloomberg, WaPo, TPM, USA Today, Politix, MSNBC, Wonkette, etc. all got in on the gag. Yet all we get is a bottle of wine poured into a glass?

C’mon. Y’all can’t do better than this? It’s a Web ad. People won’t watch Web ads unless they’re somehow interesting. This ain’t.

Maybe they should have a glass of wine or two before brainstorming the next one.

  44 Comments      


Quinn still has base problems

Wednesday, Sep 3, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller

* A new Reboot Illinois/We Ask America poll has Bruce Rauner leading Gov. Pat Quinn by eight and a half points, 45.5-37 with 7 percent going to Libertarian Chad Grimm. That’s down from Rauner’s 14-point lead in late July’s poll. Grimm may be having an impact here.

For the first time in a very long time (if ever) in a We Ask America poll, Quinn is actually leading Rauner in suburban Cook County, albeit by just a half a point, with Grimm taking 5 points. But Quinn is still getting slaughtered among self-identified independents 47-29. Rauner is stomping Quinn 57-32-6 in the collars and 52-24-9 Downstate.

* But the immediate problem for the governor is Democrats

Compare that to Rauner’s showing with Republicans…

* Another problem he absolutely has to deal with is women

Men tend to vote Republican, even in this state. If you’re a Democrat, you have to win the female vote. Period.

* From the pollster

“As I’ve seen in other polls recently, the race for governor is tightening up,” said We Ask America Chief Operating Officer Gregg Durham. “Undoubtedly, the presence of a Libertarian candidate gives voters who aren’t happy with their choices an outlet for their frustration, and it appears to be hurting Rauner more than Quinn. Nearly 12 percent of the self-described independents chose Grimm; a situation that probably won’t last…but where will they end up?”

* Methodology

This Reboot Illinois copyrighted poll asked respondents, “If the election for governor were held today, would you vote for Democrat Pat Quinn, Republican Bruce Rauner, or Libertarian Chad Grimm?” The poll is based on automated phone calls with a random sample of 1,064 likely Illinois voters statewide. The poll, conducted by We Ask America on Sept 2., 2014, has a margin of error of +/-3 percentage points. 29% of responses are from cell phone contacts.Party split of respondents: 35% Democrats, 27% Republicans, 38% Independents

  30 Comments      


JBT maintains strong lead

Wednesday, Sep 3, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller

* A new poll from We Ask America has Comptroller Judy Baar Topinka leading Lt. Gov. Sheila Simon by 20 points, 51.4 to 31.5, with the Libertarian Party candidate receiving 8 percent. A July 31st poll had JBT’s lead at 19 points, without including the Libertarian Party candidate.

From Reboot

The best news for Topinka came in one of the few categories where she trailed Simon, the daughter of Illinois Democratic icon Paul Simon. While Simon led Topinka by nearly 9 points among Chicago voters, Topinka was the choice for 34 percent of respondents in Chicago. A Republican candidate who can win 20 percent of the vote in Chicago has a strong chance of winning statewide.

“Despite the Libertarian candidate’s relatively strong performance, incumbent Republican Comptroller Judy Baar Topinka continues to distance herself from Democrat Sheila Simon,” said Gregg Durham, chief operating officer of We Ask America. “If Topinka’s extraordinary strength in Chicago holds, it will be tough for Simon to close the gap.” […]

The Sept. 2 poll included 29 percent of responses from cell phone contacts and had a margin of error of +/- 3 percent. Among respondents to the poll, 35 percent identified themselves as Democrats, 27 percent said they were Republicans and 38 percent said they were independents.

  29 Comments      


*** UPDATED x1 - Quinn response *** Rauner’s new TV ad touts “property tax freeze”

Wednesday, Sep 3, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller

* More magic ponies

* Illinois Observer

Local government finance experts have, however, panned Rauner’s proposal as unworkable and unrealistic because it would hamstring municipalities and school districts alike in their efforts to manage budgets in which routine inflation, for example, drives up costs.

“Mr. Rauner may be financial wizard in private business, but the property tax freeze idea betrays a total lack of awareness of municipal finance,” a suburban Cook County mayor told The Illinois Observer. “It belongs in the category of bizarre pipe dreams.”

Ah, but bizarre pipe dreams sell.

Policy aside, tapping perennial voter frustration over high property taxes and their routine increase is good politics – and a potential windfall for political consultants who would need to persuade voters either way.

*** UPDATE *** Quinn campaign response…

In response to a deceptive new television ad by Republican billionaire Bruce Rauner, who improperly filed for three property tax exemptions, former Cook County Assessor Jim Houlihan issued the below statement:

“In his deceptive new television ad, Bruce Rauner fails to mention that the Rauner Tax Plan would blow an $8 billion hole in the state budget and cause localities to enact the biggest property tax hike in Illinois history.

“The cuts in state funding for education made necessary by the Rauner Tax Plan would shift the financial burden for school districts to local property taxes. This would leave no choice but to send property taxes sky high.

“Mr. Rauner should stop deceiving voters.”

In reality, Governor Quinn, who opposes property tax increases, has made the tough decisions to restore fiscal stability to Illinois, putting the state in a position to provide more funding for schools and reduce reliance on property taxes.

Houlihan served as Cook County Assessor from 1997 to 2011 and before that served in the Illinois House of Representatives and as an aide to Chicago Mayor Harold Washington.

While Assessor, Houlihan fought to lower unfair property taxes that hurt families and businesses, instituting a 7% homeowner exemption. These efforts sought to decrease reliance on the property tax to fund education and other important services, a key priority for Governor Quinn as outlined in his 2014 State of the State address.

  67 Comments      


AFSCME rolls out new video comparing Bruce Rauner to Scott Walker

Wednesday, Sep 3, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller

* From AFSCME Council 31…

Four years ago, Scott Walker became governor of Wisconsin and launched an all-out assault on public employees. He pushed through legislation stripping state, university and city/county workers of their right to bargain collectively. The impact was immediate and devastating.

Now, billionaire CEO Bruce Rauner is running for Illinois governor and vowing to copy Walker’s extreme agenda. Our neighbors to the north have a personal message about what this would mean for AFSCME members here. Watch this brand-new video to hear directly from public-service workers in Wisconsin

After you’ve watched, here are three steps you can take to help spread the word and make a difference:

In unity,

Roberta Lynch
Executive director
AFSCME Council 31

* The video

Discuss.

  82 Comments      


Where do these people learn to talk like that???

Tuesday, Sep 2, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller

* From a Southern Illinoisan article about a dispute over debates between Bill Enyart and Mike Bost

“Springfield insider Mike Bost has no answer as to why he thinks we should lower the minimum wage and make thousands of Southern Illinoisans suffer, while at the same time he takes a pay raise from taxpayers for $3,100. It is not surprising he is now backing out of every debate possible,” said Enyart campaign advisor Jason Bresler. […]

This is just another example of Beltway Bill trying to distract from his votes in favor of Obamacare, Nancy Pelosi and and Washington DC. Mike has fought Springfield politicians at every turn, anyone who says differently, hasn’t seen YouTube,” [Bost campaign spokesman Jim Forbes] challenged back.

Ugh.

For crying out loud, learn to talk like human beings. Nobody’s gonna tune into those quotes except people who are already insanely hyperpartisan.

  10 Comments      


Suarez stands by her ad, produces evidence

Tuesday, Sep 2, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Well, didn’t this story just get interesting?…

Rich,

I was just alerted to your post saying that someone else wrote the piece about women in the military. As I told you, I stand by my ad. Here is the original letter to the editor that was published in the St. Louis Post Dispatch on October 14, 1998. There is only one Kurt Prenzler (that we can find) living in the United States and he was living in Brentwood, MO at the time.

I think what you found was a post on Facebook by a gentleman trying to confront Prenzler with the words and Prenzler deleted it.

Please call me if you have any questions.


Marleen Suarez
Democratic Candidate - Madison County Treasurer

* The letter to the editor…

Oh, that’s gonna sting.

…Adding… If Suarez wants to raise any money to get that ad on the air, then she probably ought to update her fundraising link, which no longer functions.

  12 Comments      


Question of the day

Tuesday, Sep 2, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller

* From an NBC Chicago report on Bruce Rauner’s Labor Day parade attendance

* The Question: Caption?

  44 Comments      


*** UPDATED x1 *** Lifestyles of the rich and famous

Tuesday, Sep 2, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller

* The Tribune had a story the other day about Rahm Emanuel’s ties to Bruce Rauner. It skipped some important bones of contention, particularly those Rauner robocalls slamming Rahm’s pension reform plan. But, anyway, from the story

Just a few months before announcing plans to become Chicago’s next Democratic mayor, Rahm Emanuel strolled down the gravel path to a Montana resort restaurant with Republican businessman Bruce Rauner, both men smiling as they carried bottles of wine.

In his hand, Emanuel carried a bottle of Napa Valley Reserve. The wine — which a spokeswoman says was not Emanuel’s — is so exclusive it is available only through a private vineyard whose members pay six figures to join the club. […]

[Emanuel’s spokeswoman] said the bottle did not belong to Emanuel. Officials from Rauner’s campaign declined to comment.

* The Sun-Times followed up

Q: Do you belong to a wine club that costs $100,000 to be a member of?

RAUNER: (Laughs) I have many investments and I am a member of many clubs.

REPORTER: So that is a yes?

RAUNER: Yes.

* And the Quinn campaign pounced…

Quinn for Illinois spokesman Izabela Miltko issued the below statement regarding Republican billionaire Bruce Rauner’s comments today confirming that he belongs to an invitation-only wine club that requires a more than $140,000 initiation fee, a fact he hid from the Chicago Tribune over the weekend.

According to the wine club, the membership structure is similar to most fine private clubs. Membership is non-equity and by invitation only. There is a membership deposit with two levels of membership: Estate Vineyard Program and Designated Vineyard Program, both requiring an initiation fee of more than $140,000.

“You just can’t get more out-of-touch than Republican billionaire Bruce Rauner.

“While enjoying a luxury $140,000 wine club membership, Republican Bruce Rauner actually proposed to cut the minimum wage, taking $2,000 a year out of the pockets of hard-working Illinois families.

“Mr. Rauner’s proposal to cut the minimum wage was heartless on its own merits. The fact that when he made it, he was wining and dining himself on the best wine money can buy is even more callous.

“Bruce Rauner may not like the minimum wage, but he sure loves his vino.”

*** UPDATE *** From what I know of Rauner (spend big bucks on things that appreciate, like land and mansions, don’t spend money on stuff like watches and cars, which often lose value), I wouldn’t have guessed he would get suckered into spending that much money to join a wine club. WaPo has another possible explanation that makes more sense to me

While Rauner said he belongs to the club, it’s not clear if it’s NVR — or what he might have paid for that membership. As Worth dot com notes, Rauner was also a silent partner in Harlan’s first investment in vineyard property in Napa Valley. Perhaps his investment in land that Worth (the site) says could have been worth (the noun) somewhere in the neighborhood of nine figures meant he was grandfathered in.

  73 Comments      


A very good point

Tuesday, Sep 2, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Illinois has a veterans hiring preference law. So, handing out a few hundred state government jobs to the politically connected when those positions should’ve been handled by the civil service system (which would mean veterans would have a preference) does, indeed, harm some vets


  36 Comments      


Rauner outspent 2-1 on Chicago TV last month

Tuesday, Sep 2, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Keep in mind that these Quinn-Rauner ad spending totals don’t include spending by that union-backed PAC which has run ads attacking Bruce Rauner

During the last month, the two campaigns spent nearly $3 million on TV ads in the expensive Chicago broadcast market, records show. And experts say the pace of ads and the amount spent will only grow in the weeks leading up to the Nov. 4 election.

From late July through Friday, Quinn aired 1,133 ads at a cost of nearly $1.97 million. That includes 159 airings of an unusual one-minute spot to introduce his campaign at a cost of almost half a million dollars. Rauner aired 1,382 half-minute commercials that cost just more than $1 million, records show.

People in the area tell me that both candidates have been running ads on St. Louis TV, which is almost unheard of at this point in the game.

Quinn is on a pace that pretty much everybody predicted. Rauner’s ad buys, however, are a whole lot lighter than I figured they’d be. Only a million for the entire month?

* But Rauner is picking up the pace this week

Rauner bought 466 spots for more than $536,000 in Chicago, including $90,000 for a pair of 30-second ads on Sunday’s Bears home game. That number could be even higher, as TV station records were incomplete late Friday. Quinn had bought 269 ads for the week at a cost of more than $420,000.

…Adding… Background info from a certain campaign…

Since the primary (3/18/14):
Rauner: $6.5M on broadcast, cable, & radio.
Quinn: $4.2M on broadcast, cable, & radio.

Since 6/11/2013:
Rauner: $15.8M on broadcast, cable, & radio.
Quinn: $4.2M on broadcast, cable, & radio.

  12 Comments      


So far, it’s still stuntish

Tuesday, Sep 2, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Gov. Quinn was asked today about how the minimum wage challenge was going for him

Gov. Pat Quinn says his experience trying to live on the minimum wage for a week has meant graham crackers for dinner. […]

Quinn told reporters Tuesday that he’s opted for water instead of iced tea while eating out. He made the comments after talking to Chicago students returning to school for the first day of classes. […]

Quinn says he’ll spend $79 this week on food and other expenses. His campaign says that’s the estimated amount left for minimum wage workers after transportation and housing costs.

* React

State Sen. Bill Brady, who ran against Quinn in 2010, calls it a publicity stunt.

“Frankly, it kind of mocks the struggles those who are living on minimum wage are dealing with,” Brady said. “It defers the attention that really needs to be focused on creating good paying, career-oriented jobs. That’s what we’re about.”

This is merely a simulated experience. Quinn won’t have to constantly fret this week about paying his rent, or making his car payment, or buying school clothes for his kids, or keeping his phone and electricity turned on, or paying for a dentist to deal with an other-worldly toothache, or the myriad other soul-crushing emergencies that the working poor deal with every single day.

If the governor talked more about those realities, I’d be more inclined to say this isn’t a stunt.

* Quinn did talk about the policy importance of the minimum wage today, but it was the same old lines he’s been using…

  41 Comments      


Politico report: Enyart slipping fast, Callis dumped

Tuesday, Sep 2, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Politico’s Alex Isenstadt says Bill Enyart could be dumped soon

Despite the GOP’s troubles, Democrats remain anxious that the political environment could deteriorate still further before Election Day. They say two of their vulnerable incumbents, New Hampshire Rep. Carol Shea-Porter and Illinois Rep. Bill Enyart, may soon be lost causes and are scrambling to prevent that list from growing.

We’ll see. That’s certainly a tough district for Enyart in an off year with Pat Quinn’s numbers in the tank. But only one occupation polls lower than a sitting congressman: Illinois state legislator. Mike Bost has taken lots and lots of votes over the years.

* By the way, Bost is airing his first TV ad

* Back to the Politico article. Most of the chatter I heard over the weekend was about Ann Callis

Democrats have gradually narrowed their focus to protecting jeopardized incumbents and are likely to seriously invest in only the dozen or so candidates seen as realistic contenders for Republican-held seats. At the start of the cycle, for instance, national Democrats had been talking up the candidacies of Ann Callis, a former county judge running for an Illinois seat, and Amanda Renteria, a former Capitol Hill aide seeking a California seat. Neither candidate is now seen as likely to win, and neither is receiving as much attention.

The DCCC’s only evidence that they haven’t yet jettisoned Callis is their media buy reservations haven’t been canceled. Kinda thin soup.

* Meanwhile

Katie Prill, a spokeswoman for the National Republican Congressional Committee, said the GOP’s Illinois strategy has changed from defense to offense. The NRCC has spent a half million dollars on television ads to support Dold against Schneider, and a total of $1.4 million to support Mike Bost, who is facing the Democrat Enyart, and Davis in their races.

Prill singled out the Dold-Schneider race as a “huge pickup opportunity” for Republicans. Dold lost to Schneider in the independent-leaning district by about one percentage point in 2012.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has spent $800,000 on ads so far in the Dold-Schneider race, and about $3.5 million in the other two districts. U.S. House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi recently appeared in Chicago to rally with Callis and Schneider, and push the Democratic campaign themes of equal pay for women and raising the minimum wage.

  24 Comments      


*** UPDATED x1 - Another poll shows single digits *** Poll: Durbin with a single digit lead and slightly below 50

Tuesday, Sep 2, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller

* During the Illinois State Fair, I was chatting with a friend of mine who’s also a Chicago TV reporter. The conversation turned to Jim Oberweis and Dick Durbin. My buddy said Durbin would win going away. I said I thought it would be closer than that, partly because Durbin’s been in DC so many years. So, we made a bet. I bet the final spread would be single digits, my friend said it would be double digits.

The last We Ask America poll of this race in late July had Durbin ahead 53-38. The poll was taken before the State Fair, so I could understand why my buddy was so confident.

But things can change in politics. And while I haven’t yet won that bet, I may be on my way to collecting some cash

In a year that’s expected to tilt toward Republicans across the nation, Durbin, the No. 2 Democrat in the U.S. Senate, is leading Oberweis, who is making his third run for the Senate, 47.8 percent to 40.5 percent, the [We Ask America] survey commissioned by the Sun-Times’ political portal shows.

And in the first major survey since an Illinois State Board of Elections ruling allowed the Libertarian Party onto the ballot, candidate Sharon Hansen had a showing of about 4 percent.

Now you see why the Republicans wanted the Libertarian Party off the ballot. She’s getting 8 percent of the independent vote, according to the poll. So far, anyway, she’s splitting the anti-Durbin vote with Oberweis. We’ll see what happens when party loyalty kicks in.

…Adding… Something happened to half this post. It didn’t publish. Hold on a bit. I’m reconstructing now.

* More

Of those surveyed, 60 percent responded they were less likely to vote for a U.S. Senate candidate who had served in Washington, in the Senate and Congress, for 31 years. […]

Still, when asked: “If a candidate for the U.S. Senate has run five unsuccessful campaigns for various public offices in the past, would that make you more likely or less likely to vote for him?” [54 percent less likely] 44 percent said they were either more likely to support that person or that it made no difference.

* From the pollster

“The tight numbers may be a reflection of a Republican year,” he said. “Still, Sen. Durbin is close to 50 percent in the poll. He has the advantage of a large campaign fund and an experienced campaign staff. That can’t be ignored.”

*** UPDATE *** Durbin, you’ll recall, refused to release his own polling results last month. But Oberweis has released the results of his poll

Incumbent Democratic Senator Dick Durbin leads Republican challenger Jim Oberweis by a mere 6% among likely voters in the upcoming November mid-term elections. Receiving 44% of the vote, the 32-year incumbent is well below the 50% threshold.

Durbin and Oberweis receive comparable support from voters of their respective parties. Durbin garners 76% of the Democratic vote and Oberweis receives 77% of the Republican vote. Oberweis has a slim lead over Durbin among independent voters at 38-37%.

Libertarian Sharon Hansen receives 8% of the vote, noting that third-party candidates traditionally poll higher than the vote received at the ballot box.

On the generic ballot for Senate, the Republican candidate holds a slight lead at 44-43% over the Democratic candidate. Independents prefer to vote for a Republican (43%) over a Democrat (27%) to represent them in the U.S. Senate.

More results here. Durbin’s approval rating is upside down. Not good.

[ *** End Of Update *** ]

* Meanwhile, Oberweis got a big boost from a prominent black minister

Bishop Larry Trotter, the senior pastor of Sweet Holy Spirit Church of Chicago, said Sunday he’s backing Republican state Sen. Jim Oberweis for U.S. Senate, changing allegiance from longtime incumbent U.S. Sen. Dick Durbin, D-Ill. […]

He said he’s switching his support from Durbin to Oberweis after seeing meager economic development in African-American neighborhoods; a lack of a south suburban trauma center and a perceived “lack of access” to Durbin.

“When you pastor 8,000 people, I think you ought to get a return phone call,” Trotter said at a news conference in his church office Sunday afternoon.

He said he has spoken with Durbin only once despite “many attempts” to express his concerns to the No. 2 Democrat in the U.S. Senate.

I’m betting the real reason is Trotter’s leadership of the anti gay marriage effort last year. Oberweis voted with Bishop Trotter. Durbin supports gay marriage. No mention of either fact in the article, however.

  39 Comments      


*** UPDATED x1 - Suarez produces evidence *** A big swing and an even bigger miss

Tuesday, Sep 2, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller

*** UPDATE *** As noted above, Marleen Suarez has now produced evidence which indicates that her ad is, indeed factual. Click here to read her response and see her evidence.

[ *** End Of Update *** ]

Remember that brutal campaign video I posted a month ago about the Madison County Treasurer’s race? The ad, by Democrat Marleen Suarez, alleged that all sorts of bad things were discovered at Republican incumbent Kurt Prenzler’s daycare center, including “rat droppings and roaches.”

Well, Suarez’s campaign is at it again, but this time they’ve missed the mark, to say the least. Watch

Oof.

* But the allegations don’t appear to be true.

A Google search for the phrase “Meanwhile, there is sex in the barracks and the U.S. Navy has transformed itself into a floating brothel” turned up a cached result of a deleted comment on the Madison County Treasurer’s Facebook page.

That comment appears to have been written by somebody named Edward Hartmann, not Prenzler. Here’s a screen capture

Oops.

Amazingly enough, Prenzler doesn’t appear to have responded. Also, keep in mind that we’re talking Madison County here, perhaps best known nationally for its lawsuits. Stay tuned.

  14 Comments      


*** UPDATED x1 - Dold response *** Schneider up with first TV ad

Tuesday, Sep 2, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller

* As we’ve already discussed, outside groups have bought over a million dollars worth of TV ads attacking freshman Democratic Congressman Brad Schneider. Today, Schneider launches his own TV buy. From a press release…

U.S. Congressman Brad Schneider (IL-10) launched his first campaign television ad this election, highlighting his Democratic values and commitment to stand up to the Tea Party.

The ad features Schneider explaining what it means to be Democrat, including his support for marriage equality and protecting a woman’s right to choose. In contrast, former Republican Congressman Bob Dold makes no reference to his party affiliation in his most recent ad.

* The ad

* The script…

Here’s the thing.

To me, being a Democrat means we can’t let “We the People” turn into “We the Few”.

It means tea party obstruction has to stop.

Being a Democrat means we should lower the tax burden on the middle class.

It means we have to protect a woman’s right to choose and every person’s right to choose whom to marry.

I’m Brad Schneider and I approve this message because we’re all in this together, accountable to each other.

We can still accomplish great things.

Discuss.

*** UPDATE *** Dold campaign response…

At a time when voters have had it with do-nothing politicians and the bitter partisanship that has paralyzed Washington, Congressman Brad Schneider is demonstrating just how out of touch he is by doubling down on his record of serving his party leaders rather than the people of the 10th District.

No need to take our word for it, Congressman Schneider says it all himself in his new campaign ad while taking himself out for a coffee break.

After voting with Nancy Pelosi 90 percent of the time, Congressman Schneider’s own ad reminds everyone how enthusiastically he embraces blind partisanship and rejects the independent-minded leadership the 10th District enjoyed under Mark Kirk and Bob Dold. As if anyone needed a reminder.

But what Schneider deliberately leaves out in his first ad is 1) any record of accomplishment on anything at all from his time in office 2) the fact that he is the 10th District’s current sitting member of congress.

Why would the Congressman leave important details like these out?

“After amassing a record as a hyper-partisan politician who’s earned a toxic 28 percent approval rating and has been ranked as one of the least effective legislators in all of Washington, it’s no wonder that Congressman Schneider makes no mention of his abysmal record or even the fact that he’s a member of Congress,” said James Slepian, Dold for Congress campaign manager. “Congressman Schneider has demonstrated that he knows how to hide from his constituents, but the voters won’t let him hide from his record at the ballot box.”

  49 Comments      


This year’s best test of party strength

Tuesday, Sep 2, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller

* My Crain’s Chicago Business column

If you’re a committed, socially moderate Republican or a hard-core Democrat, then the Illinois state treasurer’s race is a whole lot more important than you might think.

Don’t yawn. Let me make my case.

Please, click here to read the rest before commenting. Thanks.

  44 Comments      


A boldfaced lie

Tuesday, Sep 2, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller

* My weekly syndicated newspaper column

“We should have billions of dollars every year as part of our budget process…(to) maintain and expand our infrastructure,” Bruce Rauner said last week, according to the Chicago Tribune.

Rauner has been doing his best to woo the road builders all year, and he was speaking to the Illinois Farm Bureau, which has lots of members who rely on roads and bridges to get their goods to market. So I understand the practical politics of his bold promise.

But this stuff costs money. Lots and lots and lots of money. And infrastructure is only his second priority. His top priority is education funding. He wants to spend even more money on schools.

Yet, Rauner says he wants to slash the state’s income tax rate. Can he really do all that with lower revenues?

There are three ways to pay for these pie in the sky plans: 1) Gin up the state’s economy to North Dakota levels; 2) Stop making the full state pension payments; or 3) Increase state total taxation far above current levels.

Let’s examine all three, shall we?

1) Rauner has been saying all along that economic expansion is key to generating the revenue needed to pay for everything he wants to do. Yes, Illinois’ jobless rate is down considerably over the last year. That’s good news. But unless oil and natural gas “fracking” turns our state into another Saudi Arabia, there’s just no way Illinois can hit Rauner’s fantasy projections.

Last week, the Congressional Budget Office issued a forecast that the nation’s economy will grow by a mere 1.5 percent in 2014. We’ll need state growth way beyond that just to start covering Rauner’s big promises. Does anybody out there really believe Illinois is capable of outperforming the national economy by that much, even with massive reforms to civil lawsuits, workers’ compensation and unemployment insurance?

2) Resuming the state’s sad history of skipping or skimping on pension payments would likely result in a major bond rating downgrade, perhaps even to junk status. That’s really not an option. The other move would be to force local school districts to take over the state’s role of funding the teachers pension system. But Rauner has also proposed another amazing magical fantasy of capping local property taxes.

He can’t shift pension costs and cap property taxes all at once without decimating the budgets of every school district in Illinois. Period. End of story. And if he doesn’t muscle this local fiscal nightmare through the General Assembly in a big hurry (fat chance), there won’t be nearly enough money available to pay for even a little of what he wants to spend.

Rauner has also said he wants to immediately put all state employees, teachers and university employees into a 401(K) type retirement system to ease pressure on the state budget. But considering the Illinois Supreme Court’s clear hostility to anything that even remotely pares back public pension benefits, that idea ain’t gonna pass constitutional muster. Not to mention the huge outstanding pension debt the state has accumulated over the years, which still has to be paid off.

3) After assuring Republican primary voters that he’d slash taxes, the candidate now says he wants to gradually roll back the 2 percentage point, 2011 income tax hike over four years. That’s somewhere around $8 billion in lost annual revenue by his target date - about a 40 percent cut in current income tax receipts, and the personal and corporate income taxes account for a little over half of all state revenues.

According to the General Assembly’s Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability, state revenues, including federal sources and the 2011 income tax hike, have grown an average of just 4.5 percent a year since Fiscal Year 1998.

Rauner’s proposed service tax would have to be ginormously biggerthan the $450 million or so he’s advertised to cover a nut like that. And never mind that taxes on services will tend to drive down consumption, which reduces demand, which hurts economic growth, particularly at the middle and lower ends (see fantasy #1).

Say what you want about Gov. Pat Quinn, and I’ve said more than my share of negative things over the years, but at least he tries to live somewhere in the neighborhood of budgetary reality. In contrast, the new government spending that Bruce Rauner is proposing on the campaign trail transcends the political posturing we’ve grown accustomed to as Illinoisans.

I don’t say this lightly, but it’s a boldfaced lie, cheerily spoon-fed to an angry, disgusted populace desperate for even a hint of good news. He needs to be called out for this.

…Adding… Greg Hinz

In an exchange of emails, the Rauner campaign appears to have removed any ambiguity about asking workers to accept less or to get their checks later rather than when due. “All benefits accrued to date will be paid fully and on time,” a campaign spokesman says. That means the money will have to come from somewhere else.

But where? Mr. Rauner has said he wants to repeal Mr. Quinn’s income tax hike over four years. He says boosting education aid will be his top priority and that much of the money will come from reviving the state’s still-lagging economy. But doing so will take time, sweat and the political skills of a Lyndon Johnson.

Even if Mr. Rauner somehow persuades Springfield Democrats to enact tort and workers’ compensation reform, switch out a tax on service for the income tax hike and take other controversial steps, will that provide enough revenue to make the schools happy and retire $100 billion in debt?

I doubt it.

  52 Comments      


Rate Gov. Quinn’s new TV ad

Tuesday, Sep 2, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller

* From a press release…

Featuring Governor Quinn’s 63-year-old push mower, Quinn for Illinois released a new ad today showing the Governor trimming his lawn and recounting the steps he has taken to rein in government spending and restore fiscal health to Illinois. The ad, which features the Governor mowing the lawn in front of his modest Georgian home in Chicago’s Galewood neighborhood, went up on the air this morning.

“I’m working to fix the mess and I’m not finished,” Governor Quinn concludes in the ad.

Governor Quinn inherited a mess, but he’s been making the tough decisions and getting the job done to move Illinois in the right direction.

* The ad

* Transcript…

Governor Quinn: “When I became Governor, state government needed to be cut, just like my lawn. So I got to work. I cut state spending by $5 billion, cut over 2 million square feet of office space, closed 50 state properties, and we’re selling 9 state airplanes. I suspended legislators’ pay along with my own. We balanced the budget in a fiscally responsible way. I’m Pat Quinn, I’m working to fix the mess and I’m not finished.”

…Adding… As you’ll recall, Quinn got some bad publicity not long ago when one of his neighbors complained that his lawn was too long. That could be seen as a negative metaphor here. Yeah, he’s cutting his lawn now, but he should’ve been cutting it all along… or something.

* The Rauner campaign is out with a “fact check”…

Quinnocchio Alert: New Ad Misleads on Quinn’s Record of Higher Spending, Higher Taxes, Unbalanced Budget

“Taxes in Illinois are a lot like the weeds in Pat Quinn’s yard – out-of-control and hurting his neighbors. The only thing Pat Quinn knows how to cut is education funding to the tune of $500 million.” – Rauner Spokesperson Mike Schrimpf

Quinn Claim: “I Cut State Spending By $5 Billion”

Reality: The Budget Has Grown Under Pat Quinn, And He Raised Taxes By $25 Billion

Spending From Illinois’ General Funds Has Increased From $32.23 Billion In FY2010 To $35.76 Billion In FY2015. (State Of Illinois Budget Summary - Fiscal Year 2015, Commission on Government Forecasting & Accountability, p.26)

Quinn’s Tax Increase Has Taken $25.7 Billion From The Pockets Of Illinois Families. “From an aggregate perspective, it is estimated, then, that a cumulative total of approximately $25.7 billion has been generated from the increases in the personal and corporate tax rate so far thru FY 2014.” (State Of Illinois Budget Summary - Fiscal Year 2015, Commission on Government Forecasting & Accountability, p.17)

Reality: Quinn Cut Education By $500 Million

Pat Quinn Has Cut Education Funding By $500 Million. (”State of Illinois Budget Summary - Fiscal Year 2014, Illinois Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability, 8/19/13; “New Details Emerge on FY2015 Budget, Civic Federation, June 5, 2014)

Reality: Quinn Is Under Federal Investigation For His 2010 Slush Fund That Wasted $55 Million In Taxpayer Money

Pat Quinn’s Administration Is Under Federal Criminal Investigation For His 2010 Neighborhood Recovery Initiative. “Federal prosecutors and Illinois lawmakers are investigating a troubled state anti-violence program, creating a growing headache for Gov. Pat Quinn, who is locked in a tight re-election race. A legislative audit commission held a hearing Wednesday on the Neighborhood Recovery Initiative after subpoenaing members of Mr. Quinn’s administration. But the proceedings were hampered by federal prosecutors who recently confirmed that a criminal probe is under way into the program and warned lawmakers that public testimony could hurt their efforts.” (Mark Peters, “Illinois Gov. Pat Quinn’s Re-Election Hampered by Criminal Investigation,” The Wall Street Journal, 7/16/14)

The Neighborhood Recovery Initiative Wasted $55 Million In Taxpayer Funds. “The Neighborhood Recovery Initiative was launched in 2010 after Chicago community leaders called on Mr. Quinn to declare a state of emergency to address violence. The program, which had $55 million in funding in its first two years, focused on such areas as mentoring and assistance for those leaving prison. Earlier this year, the Illinois auditor general found ‘pervasive deficiencies’ in the program’s operations, including a lack of monitoring of expenses.” (Mark Peters, “Illinois Gov. Pat Quinn’s Re-Election Hampered by Criminal Investigation,” The Wall Street Journal, 7/16/14)

Quinn Claim: “We’re Selling 9 State Airplanes”

Reality: Much Like His Lawn, Quinn Only Did Something About Illinois’ Wasteful State Airplanes When People Started To Complain

Quinn Only Cut His Lawn After The Press Reported That His Neighbors Were Complaining. ” My own guilt made it hard not to cringe when the pictures showed up in my inbox. The snapshots of a forest of dandelions — those hated flowering weeds that choke front lawns and spread their seeds on puffy white pillows caught in the wind — showed every homeowner’s landscaping nightmare. Even though the photos were not of my front yard, I was hit with pangs of guilt because I should have weeded my own front lawn garden weeks ago. ‘Footlong dandelions all over,’ wrote the unhappy neighbor who sent the pictures. ‘Worst on the block. … I don’t know what’s worse, the front yard or the back.’ The dandelion tattletale said he sent the pictures because the dandelions and tall grass grow on the front lawn of a prominent Chicagoan who prides himself on regular-guy sensibilities — Gov. Pat Quinn.” (Mark Konkol, ” Gov. Quinn’s Front Yard Dandelion Forest Frustrates Neighbor,” DNAinfo Chicago, 5/22/14)

Bruce Rauner Proposed Selling Illinois’ Wasteful Air Fleet On June 12. “Republican gubernatorial hopeful Bruce Rauner on Thursday laid out the first specific cost-cutting proposals of his candidacy, saying Illinois could save hundreds of millions of dollars, including by selling most of its airplanes, merging the comptroller’s and treasurer’s offices, and reforming the agency that oversees state property and purchasing.” (Tammy Webber, Rauner Details Cost-Cutting Ideas For Illinois,” The Associated Press, 6/12/14)

Quinn Said He Would Seek To Sell Nine Of Illinois’ State Planes On June 30. ” Illinois Governor Pat Quinn made $250 million in budget cuts and put nine airplanes up for sale as the lowest-rated state in the country struggles to improve its finances.” (Elizabeth Campbell, ” Illinois Governor Quinn Cuts Budget, Sells State’s Planes,” Bloomberg, 6/30/14)

Quinn Claim: “I Suspended Legislators’ Pay, Along With My Own”

Reality: Quinn’s Stunt Was Unconstitutional, And Slapped Down By The Courts

Quinn’s Move Was Ruled Unconstitutional By A State Judge And Lawmakers Were Paid Their Salaries, With Interest. “A Cook County judge decided Thursday that Gov. Pat Quinn’s move to stop paying lawmakers was unconstitutional and ordered Illinois Comptroller Judy Baar Topinka to pay them immediately — plus interest. Cook County Judge Neil H. Cohen ruled that Quinn violated the section of the Illinois Constitution that holds that state lawmakers’ salaries must not be changed during the term in which they were elected.” (Dave McKinney, Jon Seidel and Mitch Dudek, “In Blow To Gov. Quinn, Judge Rules State Lawmakers Must Be Paid,” Chicago Sun-Times, 9/26/13)

Quinn Claim: “We Balanced The Budget In A Fiscally-Responsible Way”

Reality: Quinn’s FY2015 Budget Is “Grotesquely Out Of Balance”

The FY2015 Budget Signed By Pat Quinn Is “Grotesquely Out Of Balance.” FOX 32 POLITICAL REPORTER MIKE FLANNERY: “I can’t recall seeing as irresponsible budget as was just approved… You’d think that the whole General Assembly was on medical marijuana when they were passing this thing. It’s grotesquely out of balance. It doesn’t have nearly the revenue that they claim. They emptied their whole dirty bag of tricks to make it look balanced.” (Fox 32 Chicago, 6/15/14)

Illinois Is At Risk Of Having Its Credit Rating Downgraded Yet Again Due To Quinn’s Unbalanced Budget. ” A top Wall Street bond-rating agency Wednesday raised the prospect of a downgrade on state bonds because of concerns over the newly implemented state budget and a recent court ruling on retiree health benefits. Standard & Poor’s lowered its outlook on the state’s general obligation bonds to negative, though it retained its existing A- rating on state bonds. ‘The outlook revision follows the enactment of Illinois’ fiscal 2015 budget, which in our view is not structurally balanced and will contribute to growing deficits and payables that will likely pressure the state’s liquidity,’ Standard & Poor’s credit analyst Robin Prunty said in a prepared statement.” (Dave McKinney, “Bond-Rating Agency Shifts State Financial Outlook To Negative,” Chicago Sun-Times, 7/23/14)

  64 Comments      


Protected: SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Supplement to today’s edition

Tuesday, Sep 2, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller

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Protected: SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today’s edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)

Tuesday, Sep 2, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller

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Reader comments closed for the holiday weekend

Friday, Aug 29, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Well, I decided to wait to close comments until after my errands. But I’m heading out now, campers.

Here’s Merle Haggard

Well, I keep my nose on the grindstone
Work hard every day

  Comments Off      


Fracking rules finally unveiled

Friday, Aug 29, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller

* IDNR released its new fracking rules today. Lawrence Falbe took a quick look for us…

Rich,

My take on the revisions is that IDNR seems to worked very hard to digest an enormous body of public comment, and revise the regulations as it saw necessary and appropriate. I think that few people will be able to argue that IDNR rushed the process or otherwise did not fairly consider the staggering volume of comments it received, even if the end result is not considered perfect by either pro- or anti-fracking proponents.

Here is my “quick hit” list of what I saw that was important in my first very quick run-through.

    • Requirement to disclose specific fracking chemicals is strengthened and burden to prove protection as a trade secret is more stringent
    • Radioactivity is now addressed and a Radioactive Materials Management Plan is now required, among other things
    • The carve-out for adverse effects to water bodies that are “wholly contained” is much more stringent, with any hydrogeological connections to off-site groundwater sources now enough to exclude this caveat
    • The permit applicant must identify efforts to mitigate the impact of HVHHF on local roads
    • Burden is on the applicant to show if local first responders have adequate training and equipment to respond to emergencies
    • Changes to the permit application to address deficiencies identified by IDNR may trigger a new public comment/hearing period on those changes
    • Tightens up rules for when an objector can demand a public hearing by requiring specific facts and regulations at issue to be identified, but softens requirement to identify witnesses at time of request for public hearing
    • Public hearings must be held WITHIN THE COUNTY of the well site when possible but in no event more than 30 MILES OUTSIDE of county of well site
    • Applicants MUST appear at the public hearing (if there is one) except in a case of documented emergency, in which case the hearing can be rescheduled but applicant must pay costs
    • Clarifies that Hearing Officer does not render a “decision” but now makes only recommended findings, and the IDNR (presumably the Director but it’s not specified) makes the decision.
    • The permit decision still has to be made within 60 days of application completion unless waived by the applicant
    • The standard for granting a permit now specifically includes consideration of potential harm to property, wildlife, aquatic life and the environment
    • The IDNR has to make specific findings in its permit decision on key input from governmental agencies and objectors that was presented by public comment/hearing
    • The permit decision must consider the incremental impact and CUMULATIVE EFFECT of past, present and future fracking operations in the same vicinity or county
    • Significant deviations to the original permit application (including changes in well dimensions, boring locations, changes to proposed containment, etc.) requires another $13,500 fee
    • IDNR can impose ADDITIONAL SETBACKS as necessary to protect public health, public safety, property, wildlife, aquatic life, or the environment
    • Baseline groundwater monitoring requires GPS coordinates
    • Burden for claiming technical or economic infeasibility of complying with requirements to manage natural gas and hydrocarbon fluids produced during flowback periods is more stringent
    • Excess fluid in a reserve pit must be removed within 7 days after it is deposited
    • SITE Restoration is MANDATORY and cannot be contractually waived between site owner and permittee

Note that the new requirement that a well permit application decision must consider incremental impacts and “cumulative effects” (Section 245.300(c)(4)(vii)) is HUGE and could have a major impact on incentivizing companies to rush to get permitted, for fear that an overabundance of wells in a certain area may make additional permits harder to get as time goes on.

  17 Comments      


Question of the day

Friday, Aug 29, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller

* From the Oberweis campaign…

During his 32 years in Washington, Dick Durbin has jumped in front of every TV camera in production. So why is he shy about doing televised debates against Jim Oberweis?

Durbin has agreed to only one Chicago televised debate.

Here are some possible reasons he suddenly is allergic to TV cameras:

    1) He infamously lied about Obamacare.

    2) Then, he did it again.

    3) His policies have devastated Illinois families. Since he last ran re-election, a typical Illinois family is making $5,053 less money in annual income.

    4) He pays women staffers $11,000 less than men in his Senate office.

    5) He asked the Internal Revenue Service to scrutinize a conservative organization on the eve of the 2010 congressional election and in the midst of illegal targeting of conservatives by the IRS.

    6) He refuses to release any other correspondence he had with the IRS during the IRS scandal.

    7) He tried to intimidate conservative donors in what the Chicago Tribune editorial described as “Durbin’s enemies list.”

    8) He publicly repeated a false story about a Republican leader being rude to the President.

    9) He refuses to return $38,550 in campaign contributions linked to one of the most infamous sexual harassment firms in U.S. history.

    10) He has said nothing about $4-a-gallon gas prices after spending years haranguing about the issue when prices were lower under a Republican president.

Before we begin, I strongly encourage you to vote and comment quickly because I’m probably shutting down early today ahead of the Labor Day weekend.

* The Question: How many televised debates do you believe Sen. Durbin should agree to? Take the poll and then explain your answer in comments, please.


survey software

  47 Comments      


A big IDOT roundup

Friday, Aug 29, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller

* AP

Last week, an Office of the Executive Inspector General review concluded more than 250 IDOT “staff assistants” got jobs in the past decade based on clout, when the positions should have been publicly available to any candidate and filled based on qualifications. Quinn’s administration announced last week it was laying off 58 people who still held those jobs.

But they didn’t get rid of others who have moved into other positions still on the state payroll.

Those include two former employees of ex-U.S. Rep. Philip Hare, a Democrat. The workers were hired by IDOT as staff assistants in 2010. Rather than follow typical state hiring procedures, IDOT gave them jobs using an exemption that is supposed to be used only when the job involves policymaking or confidential information. Their jobs involved planting trees and implementing training classes, the review found.

Quinn said his administration “acted promptly” to address problems at the department, including putting in a new transportation secretary who is conducting a full analysis of all positions. He wouldn’t answer a question about why some of the improper hires still have state jobs.

* The easiest explanation for why those folks weren’t laid off with the others is that they’ve been successfully burrowed into the bureaucracy, like these folks might have been

The Illinois Department of Transportation hired four former staffers of ex-U.S. Rep. Phil Hare, D-Ill., after he lost his re-election bid in 2010, according to an inspector general’s report released late last week that said the state DOT improperly hired more than 250 people over the past decade.

The inspector general’s report focused mostly on the hiring of “staff assistants” to get around hiring rules.

Hare represented the Quad-Cities after being elected in 2006 and again in 2008. But after Hare lost in 2010, three of his former staffers were hired on at the DOT as staff assistants, while a fourth was brought on as an assistant to the regional engineer in District 2 of the Division of Highways, according to the report by Executive Inspector General Ricardo Meza.

The report doesn’t identify the employees by name, but it says one worked for Hare as a regional field organizer and two others as district schedulers.

A fourth person is referenced, too, though it doesn’t list the person’s position with Hare.

According to that story, nobody knows nothing about nothing and nobody. It’s just a series of coinkidinks. Nobody made a call, nobody reached out, nobody did anything to help out Hare’s people.

Yep.

Right.

* OK, remember this guy from yesterday?

Employee 140’s Duties Included Producing Spreadsheets And Planting Trees. “Employee 16 told the OEIG that as a Staff Assistant, Employee 140’s duties included producing spreadsheets and other computer-generated documents and assisting in the Services Development area. In that capacity, Employee 140 planted trees and performed other preventative maintenance tasks.” (“In re: Ann Schneider, Gary Hannig, Matthew Hughes and Michael Woods, Jr – OEIG Final Report, Office Of The Executive Inspector General, 8/22/14, p. 75)

IDOT Employee Andrew Waeyaert Was Employed By Phil Hare Until March 12, 2010, And Was The Only Hare Employee To Leave In March Of 2010. (Statement Of Disbursements Of The House – January 1, 2010 to March 31, 2010, U.S. House Of Representatives, p. 1266)

Waeyaert Does Not Appear On The List Of Illegal Hires Being Fired By IDOT As A Result Of The Inspector General Report. (IDOT Layoffs List, State Journal-Register, 8/27/14)
Andrew Waeyaert Is Still Listed As Being Employed By IDOT. (Employee Salary Database, Illinois Comptroller, Accessed 8/28/14)

* The Rauner campaign dug up this photo from a 2010 Illinois Statehouse News story

The newspaper’s caption

Standing in the back of the room Andy Waeyaert makes sure that Illinois Gov. Pat Quin can see his show of support for the Democratic incumbent during Gov. Quinn’s campaign stop at the Quad City International Airport in Moline on Monday afternoon, November 1. Mr. Waeyaert also held a sign supporting U.S. Rep. Phil Hare who is in a tight race a day before voters head to the polls.

* Meanwhile, is an unfortunate turn of events

Sean O’Shea, the deputy chief of staff to Gov. Pat Quinn who resigned just as his boss came under fire for patronage hiring, is going to be unemployed awhile longer.

Mr. O’Shea was going to become chief of staff to venture capitalist J.B. Pritzker but walked away from the job after his departure was reported earlier this week by Greg Hinz and became fodder for Bruce Rauner’s campaign. […]

Mr. O’Shea withdrew from the job with Pritzker Group earlier this week when it became clear he was going to be part of the campaign narrative.

“I met Sean a few months ago through our search process and was impressed that he was universally praised by every reference I spoke with as a man of high integrity with exceptional professional accomplishments,” Mr. Pritzker said in a statement. “Unfortunately, the kind of political blood-sport that smears a guy like Sean O’Shea is exactly what drives good people away from public service. I wish Sean nothing but the greatest success.”

I get why JB might not want to have been dragged into this mess, and I get that O’Shea is in an unflattering spotlight right now, but his life is really going to suck from here on out and, personally, I don’t wish it on anybody.

  43 Comments      


Even Steven, for now

Friday, Aug 29, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Remember the other day when Bruce Rauner and his chief of staff were saying that Rauner’s campaign was being outspent 2-1 by Gov. Pat Quinn and his allies? No longer

Bruce Rauner’s campaign just doubled its near future TV ad buy, sources tell Early & Often.

The camp on Thursday doubled its new flight from the period of Aug. 28 through Sept. 8.

“I’ll apologize to everbody in this room. You’re going to see my face on television more in the next two months than you’ll ever want to see it,” the Republican gubernatorial candidate told the audience at the Metropolitan Planning Council event on Thursday.

I’m guessing that Rauner will do more than just catch up come September. We’ll see, though.

  19 Comments      


*** UPDATED x1 - Confirmed *** Report: Libertarians file charges

Friday, Aug 29, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller

*** UPDATE *** The Libertarian Party has sent out a press release saying they have provided documentation to the Attorney General and plan to soon file a complaint with the state’s attorney. The release is here.

[ *** End Of Update *** ]

* I had also heard this but have been so far unable to confirm

Republican News Watch has learned that the Libertarian Party of Illinois lodged complaints on Thursday with both the Office of Illinois Attorney General Lisa Madigan and the Office of Cook County State’s Attorney Anita Alvarez over intimidation tactics employed in an attempt to prevent the Libertarian’s slate of statewide candidates from appearing on the November ballot. […]

“The Illinois Republican Party’s actions, by hiring a private investigation firm such as Morrison Security Corporation to engage in deceptive and coercive tactics against the Libertarian Party’s petition gatherers and signers, are beyond outrageous,” said Ben Koyl, Libertarian Party candidate for Illinois Attorney General. “The actions by the Republicans are calculated to deprive registered voters of Illinois of their right to free and open elections. These coercive and deceptive tactics have a chilling effect in that they discourage people from signing petitions and are in violation not only of Illinois election law, but also of our First Amendment rights,” added Koyl.
.

The party did highlight the above story on its Facebook page, however.

* Meanwhile

Bruce Rauner for the first time personally responded to Early & Often reports that private investigators were armed with guns while working for the Republican effort to remove the Libertarians from the November ballot.

Rauner said in a news availability that he was “outraged” and “appalled” by the behavior, but said it had nothing to do with himself or his campaign. […]

When asked about ties between the program and Rauner’s campaign, Rauner said: “One person did but that person as far as I know was not involved in the specific issue that was raised. That person who we paid for a specific project that was done, it was a discreet project, it had nothing to do with this other work that the state party had to do. That was completely disconnected. Our campaign has had nothing to do with the issues.”

* Video

* The Quinn campaign offered up a “fact check”…

On the 51st anniversary of Martin Luther King’s “I Have a Dream” speech, Republican billionaire Bruce Rauner found himself explaining yesterday why his campaign bankrolled armed operatives to intimidate voters recently at their homes, as first reported by the Chicago Sun-Times.

In the video… Rauner refused to apologize for his campaign’s unacceptable voter intimidation with guns, let alone take an iota of responsibility. Rauner also refused to say whether anyone was fired over this dangerous dirty trick.

Rauner’s responses range from false to evasive. Check it out:

    Rauner Claim #1: “That program that was run - that was run by the state party.”

    Reality: Seriously? You mean your so-called “voter integrity” program by your lawyer, with your staffer?

    Rauner Claim #2: Only “one person” from my campaign was involved.

    Reality: Uh, no. Rauner lawyer John Fogarty is the same lawyer leading the petition attack for the Illinois Republican Party. Furthermore, Morgan Kreitner - a notary for the Rauner-backed effort to knock the Libertarians off the ballot, is a salaried employee of the Rauner campaign. In addition, Rauner personally has donated $6,500 to the man carrying out this voter integrity initiative. And Rauner has donated millions of dollars to the Illinois Republican Party.

    That’s three, at least, by our count, including the candidate himself.

    Rauner Claim #3: “That person who we paid for a specific project that was done – it was a discreet project –it had nothing to do with this other work…it was completely disconnected.”

    Reality: Wait, what? What’s this “discreet” project, exactly? Who did you pay to do what?

    Rauner Claim #4: “Our campaign has nothing to do with the issues that you describe.”

    Reality: Only you do. You bankrolled it. You’ve gone all over Illinois bragging about your so-called “voter integrity” efforts, your campaign has donated more than $2 million to the Illinois Republican Party to carry out these efforts and you personally donated $6,500 to the political organization of the man carrying out the gun intimidation effort. But now that your cronies have been caught red-handed, it’s hear-no-evil, see-no-evil, speak-no-evil. Is this the Rauner version of accountability?

* The Tribune editorial board also weighed in today

We know, we know: Politics ain’t beanbag. But politics doesn’t have to be rotten and nefarious either.

Yet oodles of people who run for office in this state will tell you of strong-arm tactics they endured, sometimes from their own party, to get their names on an Illinois ballot.

It’s shameful. Sincere candidates who believe in public service spend months walking door-to-door collecting signatures — one of the purest elements of democratic elections — only to get kicked off the ballot through dishonest means.

The latest allegation of skulduggery accuses Republican Party leaders of trying to remove Libertarian Party candidates from the Nov. 4 ballot, ostensibly to protect GOP candidate for governor Bruce Rauner. Rauner would compete more easily in a one-on-one race with Gov. Pat Quinn with no Libertarian candidate siphoning off votes. Rauner says he knew nothing of the alleged intimidation:

  50 Comments      


Big guys dinged a bit, but little guys helped a lot

Friday, Aug 29, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller

* For decades in this state, a small number of casinos had a complete, legal and state-protected monopoly on slot machine gaming. The public benefits of those monopolies have mainly been confined to a handful of communities, although the state has brought in money as well. Meanwhile, local bar owners have been hurt by the state’s smoking ban and by competition from the casinos in those areas, so legalized video poker has saved a whole lot of small business owners from ruin. Yeah, there’s some slippage at the former monopolies, but the little guys are benefiting, so I’m not sure I see a crisis or anything yet

Tony Mossuto, owner of the Double Play Saloon in the Chicago suburb of Blue Island, said bars have struggled to cope with higher liquor taxes and a 2008 smoking ban. His five slot machines have attracted a new, older clientele that is keeping his establishment open and 10 employees working.

“It’s saved our industry,” he said.

Casino revenue in Illinois fell 5.3 percent in 2013, the first full year with the new competition. Sales fell similarly in July, marking 11 straight months of decline, according to Bloomberg Intelligence data. The first casino opened in the state in 1991.

Las Vegas-based Boyd, which owns the Par-A-Dice Hotel Casino in East Peoria, cited the burgeoning competition as one reason for a shortfall in second-quarter profit. […]

Casino operators are now focused on keeping truck stops from having more than five machines and developing restrictions that limit the competition to places like bars and social clubs.

Your “position”?

  36 Comments      


Today’s photo

Friday, Aug 29, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller

* From a corn field in Tinley Park

Cool.

This is a Major League Baseball open thread.

  43 Comments      


Stark contrasts on taxes, minimum wage

Friday, Aug 29, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller

* On taxes

“It’s painful, I hate to put new taxes in place but it’s an important, pro-growth, investment policy,” Rauner said. “We shouldn’t tax investment and income, we should tax consumption.”

And

“A consumption tax hurts hard-working people raising families and living from paycheck to paycheck,” Gov. Pat Quinn said.

I’m not sure how taxes on consumption promote growth, but whatever.

* On the minimum wage and the upcoming referendum

“I wouldn’t support raising Illinois’ minimum wage without pro-business reforms. I would not support that,” Rauner said.

“There’s only one candidate for governor who supports raising the minimum wage without condition. It’s the right thing to do,” Quinn said.

Discuss.

  124 Comments      


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