New Proft PAC ad features Joe Rogan clip
Monday, Oct 17, 2022 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Press release…
People Who Play By The Rules PAC has launched a new ad, “UN**** ILLINOIS” featuring an exchange from a segment on the #1 Podcast in America, The Joe Rogan Experience between Rogan and Illinois native Will Harris.
:30 YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_n1bnzloS4s&feature=youtu.be
TV Script:
America’s #1 Podcaster and Bernie Sanders Supporter
Joe Rogan Discusses THE PRITZKER PURGE LAW
HARRIS: Didn’t Illinois just pass some new law?
ROGAN: They’re essentially eliminating cash bail for almost everything dangerous. Second degree murder. Arson! So you light a guy’s house on fire? Get right out of jail. Drug induced homicide. Robbery. Kidnapping. Aggravated battery. Burglary. Intimidation. Aggravated driving under the influence. Fleeing and eluding drug offenses, and threatening a public official. NO BAIL.
HARRIS: What??
ROGAN: Yeah they’re ****ed.
UN**** ILLINOIS.
Vote NO on Pritzker.
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* NBC 5…
In the governor’s race, Pritzker holds a commanding lead in the poll, picking up 49.7% of the vote. State Sen. Darren Bailey, the Republican nominee in the race, trails by 22 points at 27.7%, while Libertarian candidate Scott Schluter is at 6.3%. […]
The story was similar in two other statewide races, according to the poll. Incumbent Attorney General Kwame Raoul holds a 42.6-to-25.2% lead over Republican contender Thomas DeVore, while Libertarian candidate Dan Robin is polling at 5.7%.
A large chunk of voters, 22.3%, are undecided in the race, while 4.2% say they won’t vote for any of the candidates on the board.
In the race for Illinois’ Senate seat, incumbent Sen. Tammy Duckworth holds a 48.2-to-28.5% lead over Republican challenger Kathy Salvi. Libertarian Bill Redpath received 5.5% of the vote, while 14.2% of voters are undecided in the race.
According to the story, this Research America, Inc. poll of 1,000 registered voters has a 3.1 percent margin of error. No dates were mentioned in the piece.
*** UPDATE *** Toplines are here. (Hat tip to MrJM)
…Adding… Some more questions…
Q9. Do you feel the issue of crime will have a positive or negative impact for…?
J.B. Pritzker
Positive impact 12.7%
Negative impact 20.3%
No Opinion / No answer 6.1%
Crime not a top issue 60.9%
Darren Bailey
Positive impact 15.8%
Negative impact 10.4%
No Opinion / No answer 12.9%
Crime not a top issue 60.9%
It’s just not moving the needle, even though 39 percent rated crime as one of their top three issues.
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A deeper dive into the Sun-Times poll
Monday, Oct 17, 2022 - Posted by Rich Miller
* I just now saw this on Twitter, but a few days ago Dave McKinney at WBEZ took a deeper look at that new PPP poll conducted with the Sun-Times. Check it out…
As reported, Pritzker is doing well in Chicago and suburban Cook, is narrowly ahead in the collars and playing Bailey to a draw downstate. It’s Chicago: 78-12% Pritzker; suburban Cook: 47-36% Pritzker; collars: 43-40% Pritzker; and downstate: a 40-40% tie.
Given how red Illinois’ political map is south of I-80, there was a broad feeling Bailey would do well downstate - like ahead by double-digits there. But this snapshot of where things stand is bad news for Bailey. One GOP source said: “He’s basically a south of I-64 candidate.”
On the other hand, Pritzker’s collar county numbers — 43% — are under his 2018 performance, when he got 48% of the votes cast in DuPage, Kane, Lake, McHenry and Will counties to help beat Republican Bruce Rauner. In that election, Pritzker won those counties except for McHenry.
There’s also a longstanding rule of thumb when it comes to Chicago for statewide GOP hopefuls. At least 20% of the vote is needed to win. Bailey’s 12% won’t cut it. In the last 20 years, the only Republican to win the governorship was Rauner. In 2014, he got 21% of the city vote.
For reference, here’s the Chicago vote percentage that the losing GOP gubernatorial candidates got in the other four cycles since 2002. Rauner in 2018: 15%; Bill Brady in 2010: 17%; Judy Baar Topinka in 2006: 16%; and Jim Ryan in 2002: 19%. Bailey is underperforming all of them.
Bailey’s city numbers per the poll make one wonder whether there’s fallout from his frequent “hellhole” references for Chicago and whether his tough-on-crime talk is truly moving any voters here despite the surges in car-jackings and armed robberies.
By race, Pritzker is up in all categories: Hispanic/Latino 49-43% Pritzker, white 41-40% Pritzker, African-American 85-4% Pritzker and other 59-18% Pritzker.
Same is true with gender. Pritzker is ahead of Bailey with women 55-30%, which is one of the largest gaps I remember seeing in Illinois and no doubt attributable in large part to where both candidates are on the issue of abortion. Among men, Pritzker is ahead of Bailey 44-38%.
By party, the numbers are interesting and perhaps reflective of Bailey’s struggles to get the GOP to unify around him after the primary. Among Republican voters, 73% support Bailey, compared to 12% for Pritzker. By contrast, Pritzker is ahead of Bailey with Dem voters 91-3%.
Something a bit hard to interpret involves where 2020 Trump and Biden voters land in the 2022 governor’s race. Pritzker has 86% of Biden voters, but Bailey has 77% of Trump voters. Why that Trump support isn’t higher, given how Bailey has courted Trump, is a bit of a curveball.
By education, Pritzker leads Bailey in most categories. High school diploma or less: 41-38% Pritzker; some college but didn’t finish: 50-35% Pritzker; 2-yr college degree: 44-37% Bailey; 4-yr college degree: 58-27% Pritzker; post-graduate degree: Pritzker 63-23%. […]
One closing thought before shutting down tonight. The down-ballot statewide races are regarded as generic ballot barometers. So let’s look at the attorney general’s race. Incumbent Democrat, Kwame Raoul, is up over Republican 44-35% statewide. But Devore is leading Raoul in the collar counties 43-41%, essentially a dead heat. Why does that matter? Because the collar counties are ground zero for the two contested state Supreme Court seats. Republicans need to take both seats to gain control of the court for the first time since 1969.
The data in this poll is one snapshot, and it could be off. But if the Raoul-DeVore collar county numbers are reflective of reality, it’s even more reason to keep an eye on those Supreme Court races. They could be competitive.
Just a note of caution that small data subsets have very high margins of error. Still, it obviously ain’t all unicorns and rainbows for the Democrats here.
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Campaign notebook
Monday, Oct 17, 2022 - Posted by Rich Miller
* I asked both the Democratic Party of Illinois and the Illinois Republican Party this morning whether they’d been contacted by the FBI about this and never heard back…
Chinese government hackers are scanning U.S. political party domains ahead of next month’s midterm elections, looking for vulnerable systems as a potential precursor to hacking operations, and the FBI is making a big push to alert potential victims to batten down the hatches.
Over the past week, FBI agents in field offices across the country have notified some Republican and Democratic state party headquarters they might be targets of the Chinese hackers, according to party and U.S. officials, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the matter’s sensitivity.
None of the potential targets were hacked or breached, the officials said.
* This means next to nothing. Most of Pritzker’s money is sheltered off-shore, so we don’t really know how much he’s making…
Gov. J.B. Pritzker and Illinois first lady M.K. Pritzker reported earning more than $18.5 million in adjusted gross income last year - a hefty bump from the $5.1 million the billionaire couple reported in 2020.
Pritzker’s campaign on Friday released partial 2021 state and federal tax returns, which also show the Pritzkers paid $4,733,028 in federal taxes and $883,780 in state taxes. […]
The campaign also said trusts benefitting Pritzker paid $14.6 million in Illinois taxes and $68.6 million in federal taxes in 2021. The Pritzkers also made $1.07 million in personal charitable donations last year.
The Daily Mail’s take…
Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker TRIPLED his income to $18.5m in 2021: Democrat billionaire heir to Hyatt hotels with plush property portfolio doesn’t take salary from his gubernatorial role - and already pumped $145m into his midterms campaign
* AG Raoul makes a good point in Politico…
Republican nominee for Attorney General Tom DeVore has called on Democratic AG Kwame Raoul to return the $1 million campaign donation he received in 2018 from the Friends of Michael J. Madigan committee. DeVore describes Madigan as “the poster child for political corruption in Illinois,” according to a statement.
Raoul responded: “That money was donated by the former head of the Democratic Party of Illinois four years ago, and it was spent four years ago. Since then, I’ve accepted donations from the new chairwoman of the party and other supporters, and I’m certainly not going to hand over those donations to someone who is under federal indictment,” Raoul said in a statement.
* ABC 7 on Friday…
There was a scuffle Thursday night on State Street and two CTA patrol volunteers were arrested.
Police say the group had parked illegally up and down the center of the street, right outside the ABC7 studios. […]
After being asked to move their vehicles, police say one of the volunteers hit a patrol car.
A second person was taken into custody for trying to stop the arrest.
If you watch the video, the “volunteers” appear to be from Ex-Cons for Community and Social Change (ECCSC). If you walked between the Statehouse and the Stratton Building in April, you likely caught sight of at least one of those cars. Also, click here to watch ECCSC leader Tyrone Muhammad smash the windows of a business he accused of being racist. And, of course, Muhammad disrupted a trans rights event in Chicago. And this is from July…
Just sayin, but sometimes folks get into “violence prevention” in order to project their own power onto others.
Anyway, Tom DeVore announced a couple days after the State Street police scuffle that he’d be hanging out with ECCSC…
Watch for us tomorrow night. These men have offered to allow me to tag along and witness their efforts to try and keep…
Posted by Thomas DeVore on Friday, October 14, 2022
The night came to an end. A lot to process from tne last several hours. Thank you Tyrone Muhammad
Posted by Thomas DeVore on Sunday, October 16, 2022
…Adding… Sherman is also with ECCSC…
A nine-time convicted felon who was on felony bail for allegedly battering an Illinois State trooper during a protest that featured Chicago’s “Dreadhead Cowboy,” accidentally shot himself in the butt at a Bucktown gas station, and then lied about what happened, prosecutors said Thursday.
Gregory Sherman, 43, works full-time as an anti-violence worker, “out there on the street, trying to lower the criminal and dangerous issues that are going on in our community,” his private defense attorney said. […]
But Sherman won’t be able to go home right away. Beach also ordered him held without bail for violating the bond conditions in the pending aggravated battery of a peace officer case, which is a story in itself.
In May 2021, Sherman, Adam “Dreadhead Cowboy” Hollingsworth, and three others were arrested after allegedly obstructing traffic on the Dan Ryan Expressway to raise awareness of violence against children.
* Illinois early vote totals…
* Chicago early vote totals…
The Early Vote total stands at 2,037 ballots cast.
Additionally, 11,817 Vote By Mail ballots have been returned to the Board – total VBM applications stands at 181,234.
The grand total is 13,854 ballots cast so far in Chicago for the November 8th General Election.
* IL FOP…
The Illinois Fraternal Order of Police (FOP) State Lodge, representing more than 34,000 active duty and retired law enforcement officers, has asked Third District Supreme Court Justice candidate Mary Kay O’Brien to stop using campaign literature that claims she has the FOP’s endorsement. The FOP has, in fact, officially endorsed the incumbent in the race, Justice Michael Burke.
“Whether O’Brien’s FOP endorsement claim is a mistake or is deliberate, the simple fact is that it’s not true and is misleading to Third District voters,” said Illinois FOP State Lodge President Chris Southwood. “We hereby call on the O’Brien campaign to cease and desist the use of any FOP logos or endorsement claims in its printed material, on-line postings and in-person events.”
A recent mailer sent by the O’Brien campaign to the residents of the new Third Supreme Court District displays an FOP logo among other logos under the heading “Proudly Endorsed by.” The Illinois FOP State Lodge unanimously endorsed her opponent, Justice Michael Burke, and only Burke is authorized to use an FOP logo for his campaign.
“As an officer of the court, O’Brien certainly knows that it is wrong to misrepresent the facts,” Southwood said. “We hope it was an honest mistake, but either way she needs to let voters know the truth.”
MKO campaign’s response…
Justice Mary Kay O’Brien received the endorsement of the Joliet Fraternal Order of Police Labor Council. The mail piece includes the logo used by the Joliet FOP on their own public pages.
Letter of endorsement is attached.
Justice O’Brien is also proudly endorsed by the Coalition of Frontline Police Officers made up of the Illinois Police Benevolent & Protective Association (“PBPA”), Metropolitan Alliance of Police (“MAP”), Illinois Council of Police and Sheriffs (“ICOPS”), and Association of Professional Police Officers (“APPO”) which represents over 20,000 active and retired law enforcement professionals across the state of Illinois.
Yeah, I dunno. The logo doesn’t say “Joliet” FOP.
…Adding… Press release…
Today, Representative Morgan, Chair of the Illinois House Jewish Caucus reacted to former President Donald Trump’s recent statements. Trump, who has a history of proliferating harmful, anti-Semitic tropes, told American Jews to “get their act together” and accused Jews of having dual loyalty to America and Israel. Unsurprisingly, Republicans met these dangerous comments with silence, and yet again failed to call out anti-Semititsm within their own ranks. Darren Bailey, who has his own history of making problematic comments about the Jewish community, was among those who remained silent.
Rep. Morgan reacted to the former president’s comments and GOP Gubernatorial candidate Darren Bailey’s silence:
“Telling American Jews to “get their act together…before it is too late” is nothing short of a bigoted, antisemitic threat. Donald Trump is taking a page right out of the authoritarian playbook, and Darren Bailey’s silence on his comments speak volumes. These remarks, as well as Bailey’s continued comparison of abortion to the Holocaust, lend credence to existing harmful tropes about Jewish people and add fuel to lies espoused by extremist hate groups. Any elected official who doesn’t understand this, can’t be trusted to lead our state”, said Rep. Bob Morgan.
* Roundup from Isabel…
* Final gubernatorial debate: What do Pritzker, Bailey need to say to gain support: A dominant theme in the first debate, held at Illinois State University, were claims that each candidate’s respective opponents were lying or spreading mistruths. The frequency of these claims were so high that Pritzker, when asked during a post-debate presser, said a fact check was likely in order regarding statements from Bailey.
* New Madigan charge casts a shadow on the upcoming election: Illinois Republicans are trying. The charges “will absolutely be used in House races to highlight how the web of Democratic corruption continues to grow,” said Eleni Demertzis, spokeswoman for House GOP Leader Jim Durkin. Illinois Democrats have done little to clean up their mess, even as other Democratic lawmakers continue to be charged with corruption, Demertzis said. “Nothing has actually changed in the Democratic Party of Illinois and you will certainly be seeing that narrative in the next few weeks.”
* Campaign rhetoric in Illinois Supreme Court races belies vows of impartiality: Allies attack the Republicans for being supported by anti-abortion rights groups and warn they are aggressively anti-abortion rights. A recent TV ad features a doctor who claims Curran and Burke “are too extreme” for the Illinois Supreme Court. “Pregnancies are complicated, and every situation is different,” the doctor asserts. “My job is to do what’s best for my patients.”
* Abortion rights at the forefront of Supreme Court race: It’s a race that’s become more visible on the airwaves in recent days, with Gov. J.B. Pritzker chipping $500,000 into the Rochford campaign war chest. Her backers have aired ads that highlight Curran’s long history of anti-abortion rhetoric. Rochford, meanwhile, has support from abortion rights advocacy groups and her campaign website bills her as a champion of women’s rights.
* Voters to decide on Carbondale’s ‘home rule’ status: A confusingly-worded referendum on the Nov. 8 ballot will ask Carbondale residents if they want to the retain status as a home rule community, and voters are hearing from advocates on both sides. […] “Home rule gives a city council and local administration the ability to do things much more independently of the state government,” explained longtime Southern Illinois University Carbondale political scientist John Jackson. “In essence, if the state government doesn’t prohibit something, the city can do it in home rule cities, whereas there are more constraints in non-home rule cities.”
* Editorial: Toni Preckwinkle for Cook County Board president: Fioretti, 69, who ran for mayor in 2015 and 2019 is a perennially unsuccessful candidate who also finished dead last in the 2020 primary race for state’s attorney, a race won by Foxx. We also don’t see Libertarian candidate Thea Tsatsos as offering a viable alternative. Preckwinkle isn’t likely to change much at the age of 75. But we think she has done the work to deserve voters’ support for an additional term.
* Stava-Murray, Leong both favor gun control, but issue remains contentious in 81st House race: Leong also questioned the dedication of Democratic state legislators such as Stava-Murray. “They have failed to pass legislation even though they are in the supermajority,” Leong said. “So if that’s really your passion and if it’s really your sincere desire, I think you could have done it by now.” Stava-Murray detailed her support for strengthening “red flag” laws, universal background checks, a modernization of the Firearm Owner’s Identification card system and increasing focus on mental health.
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BIPA-related payouts piling up
Monday, Oct 17, 2022 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Coming a bit late to this, but a conversation in today’s open thread reminded me. Here’s CBS…
Railroad giant BNSF has been found guilty of violating the privacy of 45,000 drivers.
In U.S. District Court in Chicago Wednesday, a jury awarded a $228 million verdict to the truck drivers who filed a class-action suit. BNSF was found guilty of violating Illinois the Biometric Privacy Act (BIPA).
The state law basically says you can collect iris scans, fingerprints, voiceprints, facial geometry scans, but you have to get [informed] written consent to do so.
The Rogers v. BNSF Railway Company lawsuit accused BNSF of using a fingerprint system that allowed drivers to access railyards for pickups and drop-offs, but did not obtain written consent from drivers that complied with BIPA requirements, according to a news release from the law firm Honigman LLP.
The jury determined BNSF violated BIPA 45,600 times and entered a verdict of $228 million – awarding the maximum of a $5,000 penalty per occurrence, according to the law firm.
This is the first jury award in Illinois’ BIPA history. Everything else has been settled.
* Reuters…
The law, passed in 2008, is one of the toughest biometric privacy laws in the country, requiring companies to obtain written consent before collecting any biometric data.
Many companies have been sued under the law, including Amazon.com, Microsoft Inc and Facebook, which in 2020 agreed to pay $650 million to settle a class action accusing it of violating the law by storing users’ facial geometry for a feature that automatically recognized people in photographs.
Fort Worth, Texas-based BNSF is owned by Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc. It operates one of the largest freight rail networks in the United States.
The case is Rogers v. BNSF Railway Company, U.S. District Court, Northern District of Illinois, No. 1:19-cv-03083.
* More…
* Samsung push for arbitration over alleged unlawful collection of biometric data: Last month, in a separate biometric privacy case, Kronos agreed to pay more than $15 million in order to resolve claims the company violated Illinois biometric privacy law with the fingerprint time clocks it manufactures.
* RelaDyne employee finger scan $121K class action settlement: RelaDyne allegedly fails to provide the required BIPA disclosures and fails to get written consent before collecting employee fingerprints. The plaintiff in the case argues that he and other RelaDyne employees were entitled to BIPA damages of thousands of dollars for every time their information was collected without proper consent and disclosures. RelaDyne hasn’t admitted any wrongdoing but agreed to resolve these allegations with a $120,900 class action settlement.
* Envoy Air to Pay $300K to Settle Biometric Privacy Lawsuit: Plaintiffs Maysoun Abudayyeh and Chelsea Burrow alleged in the lawsuit that Envoy, an American Airlines Group subsidiary, violated the BIPA by collecting their biometric information for its timekeeping system without obtaining written consent.
* Papa John’s class action lawsuit accuses company of biometric privacy violations: Pope — who argues consumers can suffer privacy violations if their biometric data falls into the wrong hands — claims Papa John’s also fails to provide any “data retention or destruction policies to Plaintiff and other customers whose biometric data Defendants possessed.” “Voiceprints and related biometric information may be used to glean copious amounts of sensitive information about those who are subject to their collection,” the Papa John’s class action says.
* Another big court decision in US litigation. Jury finds for biometric privacy rights: The line of BIPA cases continues Preliminary approval was granted this month for the $3.5 million settlement of a class action that accuses vendor Ceridian of violating BIPA with its time and attendance tracking products, according to the Record. And old cases continue to rattle around. Like White Castle, a case involving the statute of limitations for BIPA violations (Tims vs. Black Horse Carriers case 127801) could greatly affect payouts. Is the statute of limitations one or five years?
* Illinois Residents Have Less Than a Month Left to Submit a Claim in the Class-Action Snapchat Settlement: At the center of the allegations is Snapchat’s Lenses features, which allows users to take a “Snap,” and then select a particular lens and modify their facial features with special effects, according to court documents. The lawsuit claims Lenses involves the use of technology to create a face scan and “creating, obtaining and storing” a user’s unique biometric identifiers. The feature obtained the plaintiffs’ biometric information without obtaining informed written consent each time it scanned their faces, the suit alleges.
* Biometric data privacy settlement to set high bar for payouts even as lawyers claim a third: Tinder and parent company Match Group Inc. are facing a potential class action under BIPA for the use of face biometrics in identity verification, the Cook County Record separately reports. Tinder began trialing selfie biometrics and liveness checks from FaceTec earlier this year. Turing Video has had a motion to dismiss a BIPA suit against it rejected by a federal judge, according to another article in the Record. The ruling states that the company has sufficient ties to Illinois to be liable, with dozens of customers for its contactless temperature screening scanners used to detect COVID-19, and labor laws do not pre-empt the allegation, as they could only protect the plaintiff’s employer. Training software provider Brainshark Inc. will likewise face a complaint under BIPA, after a federal judge rejected arguments that the events at issue were not sufficiently shown to have occurred in Illinois, and that BIPA violates the First Amendment of the Constitution, Law360 writes. BIPA lawsuits have also been filed against summer camp photo platform Bunk1.com, according to ClassAction.org.
* Lawsuit Investigation into Walgreens Passport Photos: Were Your Privacy Rights Violated?: Dozens of other companies, from the likes of Microsoft and YouTube to Estée Lauder and Giorgio Armani, have been hit with BIPA lawsuits over claims that they violated consumers’ privacy by collecting scans of their faces from photos without providing the required disclosures and obtaining consent.
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Chicago named second-best city… for vampires
Monday, Oct 17, 2022 - Posted by Isabel Miller
* From a lawn maintenance company called Lawn Love, which usually blogs about things like the cost of fire pits, stump removal, etc.…
Do you feel most alive at night, detest garlic, and have a habit of lurking in the shadows?
Whether you wear a cape daily or just once a year for Halloween, you can fang Lawn Love for ranking 2022’s Best Cities for Vampires.
We looked for cities with plenty of warm bodies, blood centers, and vampire-friendly dwellings — aka casket suppliers and homes with basements. We also considered deterrents like garlic festivals and sunshine, as well as community and entertainment factors, such as vampire groups, nightlife options, and vampire tours. […]
Sunless Northern cities crept to the top, with New York leading the way as our vampire empire.
NYC is the ideal city for vampires, thanks to having the most potential victims. It also has the most slaughterhouses and vampire groups out of all the cities in our ranking. It doesn’t hurt that the MTA runs 24/7, and eccentric styles are so common that vampires can easily blend right in.
Big cities like New York, Chicago (No. 2), and Seattle (No. 13) have plenty of fresh blood, nightlife options, and casket suppliers.
It’s no surprise that Surprise, Arizona, came in dead last and other sunny Southern cities fell in our ranking, with other Arizona cities plus Nevada and California taking up the bottom 10. While fewer layers of clothing might make it easier to sneak a drink through all four seasons, it’s hard to avoid the sun’s rays with maximum sunshine, minimal cloud cover, few homes with basements, and scarce casket suppliers (especially in California).
* If you want to delve into their rankings, here you go…
Best Cities for Vampires:
1 New York, NY
2 Chicago, IL
3 Philadelphia, PA
4 Los Angeles, CA
5 San Francisco, CA
6 Pittsburgh, PA
7 Omaha, NE
8 Portland, OR
9 Madison, WI
10 Baltimore, MD
Worst Cities for Vampires:
1 Surprise, AZ
2 Peoria, AZ
3 North Las Vegas, NV
4 Glendale, AZ
5 Chandler, AZ
6 Henderson, NV
7 Mesa, AZ
8 Tempe, AZ
9 Lancaster, CA
10 Huntington Beach, CA
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* I don’t know whether it’s because the polling is so bad for Darren Bailey or what, but this astonishing position by a gubernatorial nominee has received zero MSM notice outside one buried paragraph in a Crain’s Chicago Business article…
Bailey did offer one surprise: He said the state needs to cut spending on grade and high school education, suggesting at one point that many children in regions of the state, such as his area, head for the military or factory jobs and do not need the broader curriculum mandated by state law.
From the interview…
The state should be paying less money. The state should be pulling back, letting the local school boards determine how they want to educate their children, offering school choice. […]
What is good for New Trier is not good for Clay County, Illinois. Most, many of our children are, some of our children are going to go to the military. They’re going to go right into the workforce. There’s welders, pipe fitters, linemen. So that’s what public education needs to be.
* I asked the Pritzker campaign for a response…
Darren Bailey would spell disaster for public education in Illinois. His stunning admission that we should cut funding from downstate schools is further proof that he is incapable of being a governor for all. If Bailey had his way, billions of dollars would be drained from public education and pumped into private institutions, including his own Christian academy where they teach students that women are inferior to men. Governor Pritzker knows every student deserves equal access to a quality education––regardless of their zip code. That’s why he has spent his time in office investing in public education and increasing opportunities for students everywhere.
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* Wall Street Journal…
Sections of the Mississippi River are approaching low water levels not seen in more than three decades, disrupting a vital supply lane for agriculture, oil and building materials and threatening businesses including barge and towboat operators, farmers and factories.
The low water, caused by a lack of rain in the Ohio River Valley and the Upper Mississippi, has halted commercial traffic and river boat cruises at numerous spots below Illinois. Prices to ship goods have more than doubled in a matter of weeks. Barges are grounding on sandbars in unprecedented numbers and many ports and docks no longer have water deep enough for commercial boats to safely reach them. […]
Historically, shipping along the Mississippi River and its tributaries has been less expensive than other forms of transportation, but with fewer boats and barges able to transport goods, prices have skyrocketed. The cost of sending a ton of corn, soybeans or other grains southbound from St. Louis to southern Louisiana reached $105.85 on Oct. 11, according to data compiled by the U.S. Department of Agriculture. On Sept. 27, the cost was $49.88. On Oct. 5, 2021, it was $28.45.
Farmers and factories in the central U.S. are rushing to secure the shrinking number of spots or find alternate supply routes. Rail, the other main option for crops and dry goods, is usually costlier and difficult to secure as railroads haven’t been able to hire enough workers to meet demand.
* The Guardian…
The water in the Mississippi River has dropped so low that barges are getting stuck, leading to expensive dredging and at least one recent traffic jam of more than 2,000 vessels backed up.
The Mississippi River Basin produces nearly all – 92% – of US agricultural exports, and 78% of the global exports of feed grains and soybeans. The recent drought has dropped water levels to alarmingly low levels that are causing shipping delays, and seeing the costs of alternative transport, such as rail, rise. […]
Last Friday, the US Coast Guard said that there was a backup of more than 2,000 barges at various points, Bloomberg reported. The halted barges were carrying recently harvested corn and soybeans.
“When the water gets low enough, commerce starts to slow – commerce is restricted, and it turns into an extremely difficult environment to operate,” Austin Golding, president of Golding Barge Line, told WAPT-TV.
* AP…
Plummeting water levels in the lower Mississippi River are projected to drop even further in the weeks ahead, a projection shows, dampening the region’s economic activity and potentially threatening jobs in one of the country’s poorest states.
In Vicksburg, on the Mississippi river’s east bank near the Louisiana line, the water is approaching its lowest level since 2012. The river’s level near that Mississippi city on Thursday was 4.3 feet (1.3 meters), and it is projected to drop to 3 feet (0.9 meters) by Tuesday, according to the National Weather Service.
A dearth of rainfall in recent weeks has left the Mississippi River approaching record low levels in some areas across several states. Nearly all of the Mississippi River basin, from Minnesota through Louisiana, has seen below-normal rainfall since late August. The low levels have caused barges to get stuck in mud and sand, disrupting river travel for shippers, recreational boaters and passengers on a cruise line.
The lower portion of a Vicksburg bridge, normally submerged in the river, has been exposed to sunlight in recent days. The American Heritage, a paddlewheeler cruise ship, navigated the river with caution.
* The Washington Post…
The transportation industry says the intervention is needed to maintain a flow of exports that is central to the country’s agriculture industry. About 60 percent of U.S. corn and soybean exports move down the Mississippi, the Gulf Intracoastal Waterway and the Arkansas, Illinois, Ohio and Tennessee rivers, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
“Commerce is moving, albeit very slowly,” said Deb Calhoun, a senior vice president for the Waterways Council, a transportation industry group. “Ultimately, we need rain, and lots of it.”
[…]
The Mississippi has changed so much from its natural state, it has become “a volatile system,” said Robert Criss, a professor emeritus of earth and planetary sciences at Washington University in St. Louis. Though that volatility is often most evident during floods, Criss said his research shows it can affect the river on a day-to-day basis.
“You don’t want things being unpredictable, and that’s what we have,” he said. “We have an unpredictable river.”
* CNN…
Tower Rock – a massive island in the middle of the Mississippi River south of St. Louis – is typically surrounded by water and only accessible by boat. But as severe drought spreads across the Midwest and pushes river levels to record lows, people can now reach the rock formation on foot.
“The river has dropped low enough that you can walk over to Tower Rock and not get your feet wet or muddy,” Missouri resident Jeff Miget told CNN. “I only remember being able to do this one other time in my life.”
Lake Mead water crisis is exposing volcanic rock from eruptions 12 million years ago
Photos taken by Miget show people hiking across the rocky river bed to the island tower, a trek posing little risk in the near-term as water levels are expected to continue to drop for at least the next two weeks.
Tower Rock can be reached on foot when the water level is below 1.5 feet at the Chester, Illinois, river gauge, according to the Missouri Department of Conservation. The gauge dropped to around zero on Thursday and shows no sign of significant recovery in the forecast.
Tower Rock before…
Tower Rock now…
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* Background is here if you need it. Federal District Court for the Northeastern District, Judge John J. Tharp, Jr. presiding…
The plaintiffs challenge two recently enacted provisions of the Illinois Election Code as violative of their First Amendment rights to free speech. Both provisions regulate campaign financing during state judicial elections. The first prohibits judicial candidate committees from receiving any contributions from an out-of-state person. The second caps the amount that any independent expenditure committee established to support or oppose a judicial candidate can receive from any single source during an election cycle at $500,000. The plaintiffs seek to preliminarily enjoin the defendants from enforcing these two provisions during the upcoming November 8, 2022, election, a permanent injunction to the same effect for future election cycles, and a declaratory judgment that these two provisions are unconstitutional. Defendant Illinois Attorney General Kwame Raoul has moved to dismiss the plaintiffs’ complaint for failure to state a claim and opposed the plaintiffs’ motion for preliminary injunction. For the reasons set forth below, the plaintiffs’ motion for a preliminary injunction is granted, and the motion to dismiss is denied because the plaintiffs, having shown they have some likelihood of success on the merits, necessarily have also demonstrated that they have stated a plausible claim for relief. […]
To succeed on the merits, the plaintiffs first need to show that Illinois has burdened their speech. They have made such a showing, and the defendants do not dispute it. […]
Whatever its intent, the ban on out-of-state contributions will likely be more effective in preserving the status quo of the state’s judiciary than in enhancing its appearance of integrity. Accordingly, the Court concludes that plaintiff Chancey has shown “some likelihood” that he will prevail on the merits of his constitutional claim. […]
In sum, the State has not sufficiently explained how the $500,000 limit on [Independent Expenditure Committee] contributions accomplishes anything other than imposing some burden on plaintiffs’ exercise of their speech and associational rights. Admittedly, given the myriad ways a well-heeled donor can work around the IEC restrictions, the burden is not great. But even if that burden is minimal, “something … outweighs nothing every time.” […]
Accordingly, it is hereby ordered that Illinois is, pending further order of this Court, enjoined from enforcing subsections 10 ILCS 5/9- 8.5(b-5)(1)(B) and 10 ILCS 5/9-8.5(b-5)(1.2).
* Ironically enough, the lawsuit was filed by the Liberty Justice Center, which has close ties to the Illinois Policy Institute.
Except, the reality is the Republicans had an advantage because Ken Griffin contributed $6.25 million to Citizens for Judicial Fairness, an independent expenditure committee, before the bill was signed into law.
But, for now at least, contributions to IE committees are no longer capped. And that means Gov. Pritzker and others can go all-in if they choose.
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* From that Sun-Times/WBEZ PPP poll…
Two-thirds said Pritzker shouldn’t get involved in presidential campaigning two years from now, with another 21% saying they weren’t sure. Only 13% embraced the idea of Pritzker trying to become the second Illinoisan in the past four presidential elections to sit in the Oval Office. […]
In the Sun-Times/WBEZ Poll, 63% of Illinois voters said they didn’t think Biden should run for re-election two years from now, while another 18% were unsure. Only 19% said they favored Biden for a second term. […]
The Sun-Times/WBEZ Poll found 46% of respondents viewed [Biden] favorably, while 47% viewed him unfavorably, with 7% unsure. It’s an improvement from the national numbers but hardly a ringing endorsement. […]
Biden was leading Trump among Illinois voters, 51% to 42%, with 7% undecided.
Those numbers are identical if Pritzker secured the Democratic nomination. In a potential matchup with Trump, 51% of Illinois voters would favor the incumbent Illinois governor compared to 42% for Trump with 7% undecided.
Still no crosstabs posted online. Biden defeated Trump 57.5-40.55 two years ago. Trump is up a tiny notch (although that could just be noise) and Biden is clearly down, but still far ahead.
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Short-term gain vs. long-term pain
Monday, Oct 17, 2022 - Posted by Rich Miller
* My weekly syndicated newspaper column…
The political action committee affiliated with the Illinois Network of Charter Schools is always well-funded, well-organized, well-run and often quite successful at electing legislative candidates who support their cause.
But unlike, say, Personal PAC, which focuses almost solely on the issue of abortion in its ubiquitous direct mailers, you don’t often see charter schools even mentioned in the cash-rich INCS Action’s mailers. And “INCS” is the only identifier on its mailers. They don’t mention the full name of the group itself.
There’s nothing illegal or even particularly wrong about that. The group wants more allies at the Statehouse, so they use polling to shape their campaign messaging, instead of using their own core issues, which may not move enough voters. And because they’re an independent expenditure committee, campaign contribution caps do not apply. So they can spend big. And they do.
This year, though, INCS broached an issue that caused them some Statehouse trouble.
“Repeal the dangerous SAFE-T Act,” blares one dot-point in a mailer on behalf of Rep. Chris Bos (R-Lake Zurich). “Violent Criminals shouldn’t be allowed out on the streets with no cash bail.” It’s the top item in what INCS claims is “Chris Bos’ plan to reduce crime and make our communities safer.”
There’s probably not a huge overlap between staunch charter school proponents and enthusiastic criminal justice reform advocates, but the latter group does have quite a bit of influence in both legislative chambers, which is how the SAFE-T Act was passed in the first place.
Sen. Robert Peters, D-Chicago, who has been one of the SAFE-T Act’s most vocal proponents since the massive pushback against the criminal justice reform law began, issued a statement last week about the INCS mailer.
“It’s disappointing to see this from the charter school industry especially since their own website says they serve 92% of students of color,” Peters’ statement read. “They should support the elimination of cash bail given 87% students are on free and reduced price lunch and are profoundly impacted by the issue. I hope they reconsider their position especially for the families their schools serve.”
Peters was described by the Chicago Teachers Union earlier this year as being a “staunch CTU supporter,” and that union is perhaps the most vocal opponent of the charter school system.
I’ve since been told INCS Action will no longer use the issue in future mailers. Somebody over there just wasn’t thinking things through. It’s one thing to help a super-minority party candidate win, it’s quite another if how you aid that person winds up damaging your core issue with the super-majority party. I figure they’ll find a way to patch things up. They’re usually pretty good at this stuff.
According to disclosures filed with the Illinois State Board of Elections, INCS has, as of this writing, sent three mailers on Bos’ behalf, at $11,400 a pop. It reported having $1.9 million cash on hand at the end of September.
Bos definitely needs the help. He ended June with just $10,000 in the bank and has since reported raising just $19,000. INCS has already reported spending more money on Bos than the incumbent has available.
Bos is up against Nabeela Syed, a hard-charging opponent who has reported raising about $372,000 between the beginning of July and Oct. 14. Bos isn’t yet a Tier One target, but Syed walks a lot of precincts and convincingly won a Democratic primary, which undoubtedly boosted her name recognition. So, unless the bottom drops out on the Democrats, she could make it a close race, particularly if the House Democrats put her cable ads on Chicago broadcast TV.
What money has been spent by the Republicans has focused mainly on the crime issue, which INCS evidently picked up on. The Republicans have been criticized, however, for using a photoshopped image of Syed that falsely makes her look like she’s holding a sign saying “Defund the police.” The Democrats have been known to do this sort of thing, too, of course.
The House Dems are running two cable TV ads for Syed. One mixes economic issues with abortion.
“Rising prices hurt everyone,” the 15-second ad begins. “I’m Nabeela Syed. I’m fighting to cut property taxes and prescription costs. Extreme politician Chris Bos opposes a woman’s right to choose, no exceptions. I’m Nabeela Syed. I’ll protect your pocketbook and your rights.”
The other 15-second spot focuses solely on Bos, claiming he will “outlaw a woman’s right to choose, even in cases of rape and incest.”
According to Illinois Right to Life Action, Bos is “fully pro-life.”
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Open thread
Monday, Oct 17, 2022 - Posted by Isabel Miller
* What’s on your Illinois-centric minds today?
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Morning campaign stuff
Monday, Oct 17, 2022 - Posted by Isabel Miller
* A quick roundup to start your day…
* Prodded by Pritzker to step down, Southland Sen. Michael Hastings faces first general election foe in a decade: The last time Hastings faced an opponent in a general election was in 2012, when he defeated Republican Edgar Montalvo. Hastings is involved in a divorce proceeding which has brought a lawsuit by him alleging authorities released personal information that he claims has been damaging to his campaign for reelection. … Sheehan’s campaign, at the end of the April-June quarter, showed donations of nearly $30,000 and just under $18,000 in cash on hand. In recent weeks, however, campaign disclosures show more than $100,000 in cash and in-kind contributions flowing to his campaign, much of it from Illinois GOP organizations.
* Battle between Attorney General Kwame Raoul and Thomas DeVore shifts from courtroom to polling booth: [Raoul’s] campaign said it plans to spend $2.8 million to run the ad online and on broadcast and cable television in the Chicago and Champaign-Springfield-Decatur markets, evidence of the wide funding gap between Raoul and DeVore, whose campaign has an active social media presence but hasn’t done any broadcast advertising.
* Illinois Supreme Court Race could impact abortion, gun rights: Republicans last held control of the state’s highest court in 1969. Any potential shift could impact major social issues like abortion and gun rights. Political Science Professor Constance Mixon is Director of the Urban Studies Program at Elmhurst University. “If the partisan make up of the court changes, we might get different interpretations of the law of the state constitution and different decisions,” said Mixon. “Beyond abortion and guns, a new partisan make up of the Illinois Supreme Court could have broad reaching impact on numerous issues like unions, public pensions, climate change, redistricting the list goes on.”
* Stuart, Korte vie for 112th House District seat: “As a student at SIUE, I volunteered with a local sexual assault victims advocacy center,” Korte said. “During this volunteer experience, I would meet with survivors of sexual assault in the Emergency Department to offer them advocacy, support, and resources. “I also have served as a volunteer at a local pregnancy care center, at my children’s schools and our church,” she added. “Most recently, I have worked as an advocate for parental rights and, in August 2021, I joined Speak for Students as a leader.”
* Sen. Tammy Duckworth holds giant fundraising lead over GOP challenger Kathy Salvi: Sen. Tammy Duckworth, D-Ill., seeking a second term, holds a giant fundraising lead over Republican challenger Kathy Salvi — about $18 million to some $1 million — according to the new Federal Election Commission reports posted Sunday. FEC campaign fundraising figures through Sept. 30 reveal that national Republicans have abandoned Salvi when it comes to sending substantial campaign cash her way, the result of brutal political triage whereby meaningful financial help only flows to candidates deemed to be within striking distance of winning.
* Crime, SAFE-T Act loom large in attorney general race: During the hourlong debate organized by the Illinois Associated Press Media Editors and Capitol News Illinois, DeVore stated his opposition to the Safety, Accountability, Fairness and Equity Today Act — better known as the SAFE-T Act — saying he believes it is unconstitutional. […] Raoul acknowledged that components of the law need clarification. Legislators are in touch with state’s attorneys, chiefs of police and others, he said, and “there could be some language changes to people who may be a threat to the public at large or to an individual.”
* IL District 76 candidates Yednock, Haskell sound off on abortion, union amendment, SAFE-T Act: Both candidates used the forum to share what’s motivating them to run for elected office. “Springfield, it’s a mess right now,” Haskell said. “We’ve been doing the same thing over and over and over again for decades, and it’s proven not to work. We haven’t had people in office that wanted to take on the elephant in the room, which is our pension crisis.” Yednock said he believes more bipartisanship could help move the state forward.
* Budzinski, Deering face off in Illinois’ 13th Congressional District: Though the party twice came exasperatingly close — 1,002 votes in 2012 and 2,058 votes in 2018 — to defeating Rep. Rodney Davis, R-Taylorville, in the neighboring Central Illinois-based 13th Congressional District, that effort proved futile amid a shifting political terrain. But after a decade of tough losses, false starts and unfulfilled hopes, Democrats believe 2022 is the year and Nikki Budzinski is the candidate to finally return a downstate Illinois congressional seat to the blue column.
* GOP state Rep. Tom Demmer questions Democratic tax, spending policies in race against Illinois Treasurer Mike Frerichs: Democratic incumbent Michael Frerichs and Republican Tom Demmer are competing for an office that deals primarily in dollars and cents, but issues from abortion to the failed graduated-rate income tax amendment have also found a way into the campaign for Illinois treasurer.
More later.
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Live coverage
Monday, Oct 17, 2022 - Posted by Isabel Miller
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