[The timestamp of this post has been altered for Thursday visibility purposes.]
* Press release…
Building on measures to address the unprecedented economic challenges facing Illinois as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, Governor JB Pritzker provided an update on the state’s revenue forecast outlook and efforts to provide fiscal stability during these unprecedented times.
COVID-19 has had a profound impact on the U.S. economy, leading to an unexpected loss of revenues across all 50 states, with early projections showing combined state budget deficits of $500 billion over the next two years. In Illinois, general revenue funds are being revised down $2.7 billion in fiscal year 2020 and $4.6 billion in fiscal year 2021. With short term borrowing to bridge through this crisis, the total shortfall for fiscal year 2021 is $6.2 billion when compared to the spending plan put forth by the Governor in February. That shortfall expands to $7.4 billion if the constitutional amendment to move to a graduated income tax does not pass.
While states are slated to receive federal funding to address costs associated with the pandemic, this funding can not be used for the broader impact on COVID-19 on state revenue. Gov. Pritzker is working with our federal partners and calling on Congress to pass an additional aid package that will provide funding to states to make up for unprecedented nationwide revenue shortfalls.
“This is a public health crisis – but it is accompanied by massive economic disruption that’s unprecedented in modern history. Illinoisans are all too familiar with the pain the lack of a state budget can cause, so let me just say up front: we will not go without a state budget,” said Governor JB Pritzker. “We will need to make extraordinarily difficult decisions on top of the difficult decisions we’ve already made, but together with the state legislature we will make them and we will do so with an unswerving dedication to fairness. In the midst of a pandemic, I am more resolute than ever to protect those who are suffering physical and financial hardship from it.”
As the governor works to protect the health and safety of all Illinoisans he is taking several steps to shore up the state’s immediate fiscal health:
Earlier this month, the Governor’s Office of Management and Budget directed agencies to take all possible steps to manage existing resources for the remainder of fiscal year 2020 by putting on hold all non-essential purchases and operational expenditures, freezing all travel that is not mission essential, and limiting all non-essential hiring. These actions are expected to save at least $25 million for the general funds in fiscal year 2020. This is in addition to earlier efforts to identify efficiencies for the fiscal year 2021 budget, slated to save the state $750 million over the next three years.
Working with our partners, the Comptroller and Treasurer have extended $400 million in investment borrowing agreements that were due to be repaid from the General Revenue Fund in March and April to July 2020. In coordination with the Governor’s Office of Management and Budget, the Comptroller has utilized interfund borrowing authority to transfer an additional $323 million in March and April to the general funds.
Additionally, the Governor, Comptroller and Treasurer will be moving forward with the issuance of up to $1.2 billion in short-term borrowing in May under Article 9, Section 9(d) of the Constitution and Section 1.1 of the Short-Term Borrowing Act (30 ILCS 340) for situations where revenue forecasts do not meet projections. About $1 billion of the decline in revenue for fiscal year 2020 is attributable to the extension of the April 15 deadline for filing 2019 income tax returns to July 15. This action will cover funds lost due to that extension.
As the costs of fighting COVID-19 continue to grow, the Governor has directed nearly $500 million in additional spending authority to IEMA through the emergency powers granted under the gubernatorial disaster proclamation. Much of this spending is concentrated on obtaining personal protective equipment for our frontline workers and ventilators to treat patients suffering from the most severe cases of COVID-19. An estimated $170 million has been expended to date. Federal funding is expected to cover most of the costs the state is incurring in response to the COVID-19 pandemic.
The federal Coronavirus Aid, Relief and Economic Security (CARES) Act is a $2 trillion disaster aid stimulus package that is estimated to provide more than $9 billion to Illinois governments for a variety of programs from education, to aid for seniors and child nutrition to transit systems. It provides $150 billion in direct aid for COVID-19 related expenditures to the states, of which Illinois is expected to receive $4.9 billion – at least $2.7 billion to the state of Illinois directly and up to $2.2 billion to larger local governments.
The GOMB document is here.
This post will be updated with remarks from the governor and others. As always, please pardon all transcription errors.
…Adding… Press release…
In response to Gov. JB Pritzker’s revised state budget numbers, Illinois Senate President Don Harmon today issued a statement calling for continued cooperation among lawmakers and leaders as the state faces the daunting task of digging out from the social and economic effects of the ongoing global pandemic.
“We’ve proven in recent years that we can come together in times both good and bad to solve problems. We will need that spirit of cooperation more than ever before as we continue to face this outbreak and its economic fallout.
“What I told the governor is the Senate Democrats will do our part to help solve problems and stabilize our state.”
* The governor made an important point about the federal aid in the CARES Act…
But I want to be clear, these dollars can be used to cover only new expenditures related to coronavirus. Currently this funding cannot be used to make up for state government revenue shortfalls that have been a result of coronavirus. That leaves states to face this unprecedented financial hole on their own.
* On to questions for the governor. With those numbers, which sounds pretty scary, is it time to rethink the graduated income tax?…
It’s on the ballot for November. I think people will be making their own decision about it. I would argue, in a way that we may need it now more than ever. And of course this isn’t just about one year. It’s about fixing the structural deficit that exists for the state. We’re in a pandemic, we’re in an emergency, this crisis is causing a significant disruption to our fiscal year coming up. But we we have many years ahead and I think a fairer tax makes sense to me.
* There was a report today about a secret flight for PPE. Can you give us more information, and do you really have to make it secret because otherwise the feds might take the mass and gowns, that you’re trying to bring here to Illinois?…
Well, look, I’m responsible for making sure that we have the PPE and the ventilators that we need for the state. The federal government as we’ve talked about many times has not been a great partner in that. They’ve helped. They’ve helped, and I want to give credit for what we’ve gotten from the federal government, but it’s only really, in the end, a few days worth of items. And so we’ve had to search the entire globe to find what we need. Shipping is very difficult and so we’re doing what we need to do to make sure that we get, you know, the kind of PPE that we need. It is true that the federal government seems to be interrupting supplies that are being sent elsewhere in the nation and so I wanted to make sure that we receive what we ordered.
* Iowa released the names of the senior health care facilities and the nursing homes with Coronavirus infections, why not Illinois?…
Dr. Ezike: Releasing information regarding outbreaks that happen in facilities is not something that’s new to us. IDPH regularly does put that information out. I will take that back to the team if we haven’t been updating our lists.
* Also right now family members with loved ones in nursing homes can only find out if a positive case or death. If the nursing home voluntarily releases this info. What would you say to those families who are worried and they’re wondering if their loved one is at risk?…
Dr. Ezike: Again, remember that this is an unprecedented time. And traditionally we know that we’ve had, potentially some shortages in staff in the nursing homes particularly among the staff who are sick themselves. So I think in the midst of trying to check every member of everybody living in the nursing home to make sure that they’re not sick, to make sure that they’re separating people who’ve been exposed from people who are sick from people who haven’t been exposed to doing the pre shift assessments for all of the employees. I think everyone has been tasked with additional duties.
So I think it’s absolutely the intention in every nursing home to contact families when they have a loved one that’s sick and to give updates. I’m going to speak for the nursing homes when I say I probably think it’s just backlog and not that they don’t want to, but trying to manage all the tasks in addition to caring for the loved ones that they’ve been tasked with might you remind them that, that’s it, this is information that folks are just surely, surely.
* Several state senators are urging the lifting of the stringent social distancing when the Illinois Hospital Association says that the ICU bed capacity is sufficient. Is that a factor, will you consider that?…
Again, I’ve said day in and day out that we’re going to rely upon the epidemiologists and the scientists to tell us what social distancing measures, what stay at home measures we need to keep in place in order to keep the population from having a spike of COVID-19 infections that might number one consideration, my number one consideration is the life, safety and health of the people of our state. And of course I am just as eager as all of those states senators and with the President of the United States and everybody else to get everybody back to work. But we’ve got to do it in a fashion that really works for everybody so that we keep customers safe that we keep workers safe.
And so I’m going to repeat something I’ve said almost every day. We need widespread testing, and we’re all working on that no state has widespread testing yet, but we are all working on expanding testing. We need a comprehensive contact tracing effort, which Massachusetts has begun to stand up and that’s something that I’ve been in direct contact with not only the governor of Massachusetts about but also with the people who are actually putting that program together I happen to know for many years, an organization called Partners in Health. And so we’re looking at putting that together for the state of Illinois so we’ll have both of those in the works. We’ve already talked a lot about testing. So you’ve seen that we’re in the works buying machines and the VTM and everything it’s necessary to make sure that our testing increases, the contact tracing and then something that is really dependent upon the researchers and the doctors and we’re cheering them on in every way that we can, but it’s really up to them and that’s the testing that’s going on right now over certain kinds of treatments that can be given effectively they have these what they call them double blind experiments. And they’re some of which is going on in Chicago hospitals I might add, but it’s going on all over the world on things like grim death severe and hydrochloric wind and everything else. Once we have something established that will keep fewer people from going to the hospital, and therefore fewer people going into ICU beds and fewer people getting ventilators, then I think those three things working together, testing tracing and treatment, those together with widely available PPE will help us to begin to reopen commerce across the state.
Lots of words.
* In New York, the death toll sharply increased when they decided to count the victims who never tested positive likely died from it. Are you considering doing the same thing here? And is it possible the state’s death toll is considerably higher?…
Dr. Ezike: As the governor correctly stated, the denominator in terms of the total number of people who have cases is grossly underestimated. We know that because we had limited supply of the testing materials and so then we’re trying to find our highest risk people in terms of in terms of doing the testing in the first place. But on the death number. I think that one is probably closer to accurate because once you’re in the hospital that’s definitely a population that would get tested like that was one of our prioritized groups, people who are very sick who are in the hospital who are ICU who have pneumonia, so more likely the death numbers are close to actual. Of course it could have been missed if there was no suspicion of at all. But in terms of the numbers that are grossly underestimated it would be the total number of cases for the state.
So, the CDC did recently put out the new guidance that we should have a separate column for laboratory confirmed cases and then this second column for probable cases. And so, again, most of those probable cases are the people that physicians and public health departments said yes we’re the household contact of so and so and this person was laboratory confirmed. Yeah, you probably have it so we know that those people exist and so it’s just a matter of. Do we want to increase those numbers but even that will probably be a gross underestimation if we just put those probables we’ve had a couple doctors
* Okay folks who say they have been tested, they’re essential workers, this especially at Roseland hospital, and they’re still waiting for the results. They did self imposed a quarantine but now they have to get back to work their employer saying get back to work. What should they do?…
Dr. Ezike: So I actually have been in contact I think with the VP of Roseland as recently as today. And so, I am working with my team to make sure that all specimens are sent directly to IDPH lab because again the rapid turnover of the results is essential. And so when people send it out to some of these other locations where there’s an exorbitant amount of time decisions can’t be made so we’re working on that, as we speak to make sure that we get timely results.
Gov. Pritzker: I think this is an important part of the answer as well. There was an article actually this morning about how the commercial labs, actually are reporting 30% fewer results than they were before they’ve had their own issues with processing. And I’ve talked about this before how it takes seven to 12 days to get a result from one of the commercial labs. It’s the reason, partly that we’ve started to build up, not just started we’ve been doing it for some time now building up our resources within the state.
* Freelancers are wondering, are they covered by unemployment if you’re a freelancer?…
If you’re an independent contractor 1099 if you qualify as that which is often what a freelancer is, then you would qualify for this new program that the federal government, set up to provide unemployment insurance.
* Parents of course still are wondering about school, and then now they’re looking ahead to the summer, summer camp, do you envision children going to summer camp programs this summer?…
Again, we’re going to make some decisions coming up about what to do about our stay at home order, you know how we will you know make adjustments, or what needs to remain in place we still haven’t decided about whether you know about what to do about schools you know we have an April 30 date. Now, and typically schools, you know, might end in the first or second week of June. And so decisions, you know, need to be made, soon to make you know parents aware and kids aware of what that next month or month and a half might look like. And I think that will begin to give us some indication about the summer. But again, I’m, you know we’re speculating remember everything about this is new. And so it’s very difficult to make projections months in advance of something. But, you know, as a parent as of children who have it, who have in the past gone to camp. I know all the planning is occurring now. And so we’ll try to give some indication if we can, but it’s hard to do I must say is this far in advance.
* Do you think in the next two weeks, the next 10 days?
I’m not, certainly in the next two weeks we’ll be, you know, deciding what to do about the April 30, stay at home. The end of the stay at home order that’s currently in place, but I’m not sure that in the next 10 days or two weeks that we’ll be able to give an answer about summer camp.
* I’m sure you saw and heard the group of protesters circling the block down stairs honking and saying, lift the ban that’s going to be a sign of how rambunctious people are going to get the longer this drags on. [The protesters were actually demanding that Pritzker lift the ban on rent control ordinances.]…
The moratorium on rent control in the state is a state law. It can only be lifted by the state legislature in a vote by the state legislature. [He went on, but you get the gist.]
* Your counterpart in New York is now looking at having people wear masks. We’ve seen a couple of local municipalities, Mayor Lightfoot said she didn’t think today that that was needed. Are you giving any consideration to requiring people to wear masks in public and if so, where would that apply?…
I am. First of all I have given a lot of consideration and I have spoken about that here and indeed recommended to people that they wear masks when they’re out in public or them, especially when they go to anywhere where they’re going to be with you know any other group of people, you know, a grocery store pharmacy gas station or anywhere else, where they know they’re going to be with others.
So, and that doesn’t by the way that doesn’t mitigate the idea that you seem to maintain your social distance you know to having the mask on, is an additional protection. And let me be clear wearing a mask is protecting everybody else. So you’re doing everybody else, a favor or you know you’re doing the right thing for everybody else in your presence by wearing one.
So should we require it is really the question, you’re suggesting and I’ve had this conversation with one of the state reps on the other side of the aisle has been very collaborative and had good ideas. And I think it’s something that, when I look at the mitigation measures that we should be contemplating and making adjustments to, that is one that I think might be seriously important for us to consider in the period going forward.
…Adding… Rep. Mark Batinick (R-Plainfield) confirmed that the unnamed GOP legislator was himself. Batinick advocated for an executive order requiring masks in public in a post on this website yesterday.
* Asked about dairy farmers dumping milk…
I hope that the federal government is able to step in with either price supports or some kind of farm bill to support farmers in this endeavor.
And I would love to get some of those goods to support the, particularly the kids who are on free or reduced lunch who are would otherwise be in school, getting it but it can’t and so the school districts are distributing it. So I would say to any farmer that has the ability to deliver some of that for us I’ve talked to many of the food manufacturers across the country about donating and many of them have donated goods for us by the school districts in Illinois for low income families and so I would encourage them to contact us we’d be happy to put them in touch with school districts.
* Last night President Trump discussed at length the idea of state border checks. Has this been a part of your discussions with Midwest governors and how practical is it? How would it be conducted?…
No.
* What must the state do to ramp up broad contact tracing? Will this require hiring people? How will they be trained? How much will this cost? Is this underway?…
You can take a look at the articles that have been written about the Massachusetts collaborative, that’ll give you a sense of what this looks like. But yes, it involves hiring people that involves good old fashioned shoe leather. That is to say that people are not going to be knocking on doors, but they’ll be using an app, which will populate with someone’s spoken contacts it’s not this is not an Apple, Google app. This is one in which someone who has COVID-19 reveals who their contacts are to someone over the phone. And then that is all populated an app. And through that app, individuals who are part of the collaborative would have the ability to call the contacts that have been registered to let them know that this person has been diagnosed with COVID-19 and that they should self isolate.
* The upward curve of new cases has slowed, but it hasn’t yet gone down. What are the scientists telling you about finally putting the state on a downward trend?…
It’s an excellent question and we’re we’re looking at a variety of models you know we’re going to talk a little more about this in the next few days but you know the answer is that it’s, as you pointed out, it’s climbing it’s climbing at a lower rate than it had been before. And that’s a very good thing.
What the other side of the curve looks like I think looks very different than what the IHME curve looks like. If you have gone online to look at that curve, not just for Illinois but for all the rest, it seems like their curve sort of peaks and then precipitously drops.
And I personally, and others that I talked to, don’t think that’s how it’s gonna work. You’re working your way up to a peak unfortunately and then as you come to the other side it’s going to be a gradual downward slope, not an immediate drop. And so that is another reason why this testing, tracing treatment is so important and why we can’t do what I think President Trump has described which is sort of a massive opening of a variety of states.
* A leader of a local incident management team in Springfield has said the return to normal would probably be done by on a county by county process rather than statewide. What’s the veracity of that?…
We left in the hands of counties and cities, a lot of decisions. The decisions for example about their own city parks or county parks, whether to open those we’ve closed state parks. You heard that the mayor of Chicago close the lake front. There are a variety of places that have made other decisions about things that are not in the executive orders, but things that are in the executive orders are state law or, or I should say they’re mandated by executive order they’re not state law. And so they really can only be removed by the states.
* A local pastor recently complained that he’d been told he couldn’t have a drive through Easter service. He pointed out that marijuana dispensaries are still open, recreational pot isn’t legal in most states. With that in mind, why are recreational pot sales allowed? What do you say to the pastor and business owners who have been forced to close?…
I’m not sure how those are related, but I would say that the advice around drive up and pick up, and that’s what’s happening in dispensaries, has been that it’s very brief contact. And it’s somewhat socially distanced. And so the handoff of, you know, just as it is with a drive up and pick up food is relatively brief.
The problem with a religious service, and I am sympathetic with this because I too would like to worship in the way that we normally do, or even in a drive up circumstance, has been that that’s not a quick endeavor. And the result is that people end up parking very close to each other, opening their windows, sitting in pews very near to each other. And so it turns out that that is one way to spread COVID-19 and we want to avoid that.
* Sen. Shrimpf and others wrote a letter to you requesting a uniform policy that empowers local health departments to make decisions concerning business closures and openings in their respective counties. What is your response to that proposal?…
We will from the state Executive Order perspective, we’re looking at all of our state executive orders and thinking of the health and safety of everybody in the state, no matter where they live. And I of course understand the difference between living in a rural community and living in an urban community, and no I really do understand that, you know, that there are differences.
The problem is that a restaurant in a rural community has the same ability to spread COVID-19 as a restaurant in an urban community. So, it’s really you know it’s a challenge to identify the things that are that much different.
Having said that, we have tried to make adjustments. You’ve seen for example that essential businesses includes virtually everything that’s agriculture related, which is entirely almost entirely in rural communities. So we are thinking about how to make differences between urban and rural communities, recognize those differences and let as many people work as possible without endangering people’s lives
* Do you have any thoughts on the municipal requests to the Attorney General Raoul to issue an advisory opinion allowing local governments to delay the fulfillment of FOIA requests, until the stay at home order’s lifted?…
I don’t really have an opinion about that. We are working hard to try to fulfill FOIA requests, it is hard, I have to admit, with limited staff with our legal staff, you know, constantly working on. I mean I can’t tell you how hard those folks are working. And those are the folks who review all the FOIA requests and try to fulfill them so as I said a few weeks ago I hope that people will continue to have some patience with us about our delivery of FOIA responses to FOIA requests. But I don’t have an opinion about their request to the Attorney General.
* That was the last question, but then the governor had one more thing to say…
Can I just say one thing before I conclude? Standing behind me is General Rich Neely of our National Guard. You’ve seen him occasionally with me here.
And he’s with us today in part because the National Guard has done such a tremendous job of standing up and taking over in some cases for federal government drive thru facilities. But it is the National Guard that has done not only that, but also when we needed to put in additional capability at one of our prisons. It was the National Guard that came in with medical personnel, tents so that we could treat and separate people within the prison. And the National Guardsmen have just been outstanding. And you should be so proud. It’s the best National Guard in the entire nation, Illinois National Guard. We have the best Adjutant General in the entire nation, and I just, I want to recognize the amazing work that they do. Thank you.
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Dueling graduated income tax press releases
Wednesday, Apr 15, 2020 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Posted in the order they were received. ILGOP…
Today, Governor Pritzker used his time during his daily Coronavirus briefing to publicly campaign and advocate for the progressive income tax ballot question in November. ILGOP Chairman Tim Schneider released the following statement in response:
“It seems Governor Pritzker has taken Rahm Emannuel’s “never let a crisis go to waste” adage to heart. With a global pandemic that has plunged the state’s economy to depths not seen since the Great Depression, this is the worst possible time to push through a tax hike that will crush small businesses who provide so many of our jobs. Pritzker using a Coronavirus briefing to campaign for the progressive income tax is inappropriate and unfortunate.”
* And Vote Yes for Fairness…
Vote Yes For Fairness Chairman Quentin Fulks released the following statement on the revised budget projections Governor Pritzker announced this afternoon, showing a $6.2 billion budget shortfall in FY2021, which would increase to $7.4 billion if the Fair Tax does not pass:
“While there is still so much uncertainty surrounding the Coronavirus and its impact on our state, Governor Pritzker’s announcement today makes clear that there are serious financial challenges that need to be addressed. That’s why passing the Fair Tax in November is needed now more than ever. Without the Fair Tax, the budget shortfall in fiscal year 2021 would be even greater, making it more difficult to get our state back on track.”
“Coronavirus has impacted nearly every facet of our state, but one thing that hasn’t changed is the need for a tax system that works for everyone, not just the wealthiest Illinoisans. Our current tax system is outdated and fundamentally unfair, burdening the middle and lower-income families who are suffering most from this crisis. The Fair Tax will set this right, while ensuring 97% of Illinoisans see no tax increase or receive a tax cut.
“Vote Yes For Fairness remains committed to fighting with our working families, our small businesses, and our communities across the state to pass the Fair Tax in November.”
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* From an open letter to Gov. JB Pritzker from Republican state Senators Paul Schimpf, Donald DeWitte, Jim Oberweis, Craig Wilcox, Jason Plummer, Chuck Weaver, Sue Rezin and Dan McConchie…
Illinois should start to ease back on some of the more aggressive social distancing measures as soon as the Illinois Hospital Association projects that ICU bed capacity is sufficient to respond to the projected levels of COVID-19 admissions. We are not advocating for an immediate return to normalcy — far from it. But where non-essential businesses or facilities can practice social distancing norms, they should be allowed to operate.
A subscriber read that and texted me this…
How do you advocate for a policy knowing it will put people in intensive care?
He wrote some other stuff, but I’ll just leave it at that.
…Adding… Just to be clear here, we’ve been going over this topic for days and days. But let’s just focus on stuff I’ve posted today.
1) The downward curve doesn’t look like the upward curve. Instead, it looks more like a plateau: The decline may not be as fast as the rise
2) Because of (1) we are still essentially at the peak. Forcing the curve downward could take more measures than we currently have in place, like a mask requirement, for instance: Slowing the upward curve is just not enough
3) Calling for even a partial reopening of the economy while new cases are still rising as fast or faster every day with no end in sight is simply irresponsible: SGOP plan is a bit on the ghoulish side
4) Here’s the graph that matters most….
Those new case numbers need to start going down and stay going down for a period of time before anything can and should be done about lifting the stay at home order.
…Adding… 5) Businesses may want to reopen, but, as we discussed yesterday, economies shut down because of the virus. People essentially voted with their feet: “The fundamental problem with the economy right now is the pandemic” not the stay at home orders
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1,346 new cases, 80 additional deaths
Wednesday, Apr 15, 2020 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Press release…
The Illinois Department of Public Health (IDPH) today announced 1,346 new cases of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Illinois, including 80 additional deaths.
Cook County: 1 female teens, 1 male 30s, 2 males 50s, 11 females 60s, 5 males 60s, 5 females 70s, 11 males 70s, 5 females 80s, 4 males 80s, 1 female 90s, 5 males 90s, 1 female 100+, 1 male 100+
DuPage County: 1 male 70s, 1 female 80s, 2 males 80s, 1 male 90s
Jackson County: 1 male 80s
Lake County: 1 male 70s, 1 female 80s, 1 male 80s, 1 male 100+
Macon County: 1 female 70s, 2 females 80s, 1 male 80s
McHenry County: 3 males 70s
Monroe County: 1 female 90s
Ogle County: 1 female 80s
Rock Island County: 1 male 50s
St. Clair County: 1 male 80s, 1 female 90s
Whiteside County: 1 male 70s
Will County: 1 female 50s, 1 male 50s, 1 male 60s, 1 female 70s
Union County is now reporting a case. Currently, IDPH is reporting a total of 24,593 cases, including 948 deaths, in 89 counties in Illinois. The age of cases ranges from younger than one to older than 100 years.
…Adding… Graph of new cases…
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Slowing the upward curve is just not enough
Wednesday, Apr 15, 2020 - Posted by Rich Miller
* We talked yesterday about how the state’s new infection doubling rate had dropped. It’s basic math to figure out what could have happened if that doubling rate hadn’t been curtailed. Here’s Heather Cherone at her new WTTW gig…
By the time Gov. J.B. Pritzker ordered Chicagoans to stay home in an effort to stop the spread of the new coronavirus starting March 21, the number of confirmed cases was more than doubling every three days in Chicago, setting the city on a catastrophic course.
Had that pace of infections remained steady, 2,000 Chicagoans would have died and approximately 64,500 people would have been sickened by COVID-19, the illness caused by the virus, according to new data released by Mayor Lori Lightfoot.
Instead, the governor’s order and the mayor’s campaign to get Chicagoans to stay home through a series of humorous memes and videos mixed with stern warnings has saved at least 1,700 lives, according to newly released city data. […]
The number of cases of the virus is now doubling every 12 days [in Chicago], according to the data.
* But it wasn’t just the orders…
“In many places, many people started staying at home before the orders came out,” [Ali Mokdad at the University of Washington] told me. “Many companies moved to working from home,” he said, including Seattle giant Microsoft, which switched to work-from-home several weeks before formal stay-at-home orders were put in place in the city.
* And the future is unclear…
Most schemes to reopen the country rely on this: They require that case numbers fall for 14 days before the US starts loosening restrictions. The idea is that two weeks of falling cases is enough that it can’t just be a coincidence, and enough to lower the overall case count so regions can trace contacts and use more intensive monitoring approaches in a targeted way.
But even in the parts of the country that have now been living under extensive restrictions for several weeks, case numbers aren’t falling across the board — though in some areas (most crucially New York) they do seem to be. Other, more reliable measures like hospitalizations and deaths, aren’t falling either. That’s why the CMMID estimates the RO in the US at about 1 — each sick person is infecting about one more person. […]
In other words, social distancing is definitely working — but the question of whether it is working well enough remains to be seen, and the fact that numbers are plateauing rather than falling isn’t a great sign.
“It seems that the press has been eager to push the narrative of ‘we are near the peak!’ and ‘the end is in sight,’ but given the strong uncertainty about the future and lack of clear consensus among modelers, I think these messages are premature,” UMass infectious disease researcher Nicholas Reich argued.
This is exactly what we talked about earlier today. Reporters should take note.
* And Gov. Pritzker may well need to do something more like perhaps require masks in public to finally start pushing these new case numbers down. [Changed the link and deleted a graph.]
We’re not getting out of this mess until those new case numbers consistently fall for a period of time.
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COVID-19 roundup
Wednesday, Apr 15, 2020 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Kane County Board Chairman Chris Lauzen…
“I cannot criticize other (levels of) government,” Lauzen said at the public health committee meeting. “If I criticize the state, it won’t be the governor who turns around and punishes us. It will be the staff members. I know the quality, or the lack of quality, of the people who make decisions about the resources that come here. They are little people. Terrible. Terrible. You won’t find me at any time criticizing the state.”
Except he just did.
* Hannah Meisel…
Despite Pritzker’s public goal-setting more than two weeks ago for Illinois to conduct 10,000 tests per day by the middle of last week, the state has not come close to reaching that goal in the days since.
The 4,848 new test results reported by IDPH on Tuesday is fewer than half of the 10,000-test benchmark Pritzker and Ezike say will help the state predict the virus’ trajectory and spread more accurately.
So far, 110,616 Illinoisans have been tested for Covid-19, but the state is consistently falling behind testing levels recorded in other states despite starting out as a leader in testing last month.
Pritzker last week said efforts that promised increased testing abilities, including the acquisition of five high-volume RNA extractors and Chicago-based Abbott Laboratories’ much-touted “rapid tests” each came with disappointing caveats.
Chart…
* Manny Ramos at the Sun-Times…
Two nursing home workers accused two Chicago-area facilities Tuesday afternoon for wrongfully firing or suspending them after they raised safety issues.
Greg Kelley, president of SEIU Healthcare Illinois, said these were just just an example of many instances during the COVID-19 pandemic where union members’ concerns were being disregarded by nursing home owners.
Kelley said workers at Bridgeview Health Care Center and Alden Lakeland brought their concerns to management but were “disrespected, insulted and have in fact been fired” for raising issues with their employers.
“These employers seem to care more about maintaining their profits than the safety of those who live and work in their facility,” Kelley said.
* Joe Mahr at the Tribune…
A prior Tribune investigation had found that the nursing home industry — particularly in Illinois — entered the pandemic with a poor track record at preventing the spread of infections. Patient advocates and workers have long complained the industry is built on a business model of overworking and underpaying its employees, such as certified nursing assistants, and that government penalties are insufficient to force change.
Health experts have also expressed fear that a pandemic could sweep through nursing homes, and clusters of COVID-19 cases have already emerged. One, at a Willowbrook home, had killed 10 residents and sickened 25 others, as well as 19 employees, as of Tuesday, health officials said. According to Lake County officials, 24 of 50 coronavirus deaths in that county involved nursing home residents, as of Tuesday morning. […]
In an email, the facility’s administrator, Martha Peck, declined to directly address Somerville’s allegations but said the home hasn’t disciplined or fired anyone regarding use of personal protective equipment or COVID-19 concerns. “Bridgeview is committed to the safety of our staff and residents,” she said.
She said the facility emphasizes to employees the “importance of a safe environment for all and the importance of using PPE to minimize risk.” When the home has temporarily run out of supplies, it has used substitutes approved by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Peck said.
…Adding… Sigh…
* On to selected headlines from the Tribune’s live blog…
Bleak IMF forecast: 2020 will be economy’s worst year since Great Depression. ‘This is a crisis like no other.’
Blackhawks convention — originally scheduled for July 26-28 at the Hilton Chicago — is canceled
Best Buy to furlough 51,000 store employees amid coronavirus sales slump
How to get a refund for coronavirus-canceled travel, from hotline help to ‘the nuclear option’
FDA approves first saliva test for coronavirus
Unprecedented’ number of people turning to GoFundMe as a last resort during pandemic. ‘It’s like you’re putting your heart out there’
Chicago police setting up checkpoints to remind people of stay-at-home order and provide a presence in areas of violence
Getting an economic stimulus check? Trump’s signature will be on it, a break in protocol
37 immigrant children in three Chicago-area shelters test positive for COVID-19
* Sun-Times live blog…
A CTA bus driver with COVID-19 has died, the transit agency announced Tuesday, becoming the second CTA employee to die of the coronavirus.
Two more employees at the Cook County Circuit Court clerk’s office have tested positive for COVID-19, bringing the overall total to 18.
WavePads Water Rafts in Plainfield pivots to manufacturing face shields
* Roundup…
* Peoria faces possible $50 million budget deficit because of coronavirus: The city’s budget was $218 million this year. Without any assistance and if the city’s closed until July 1, it would only take in about $163 million in revenue.
* The story behind Chicago’s deep stock of COVID-fighting equipment: Chicago spent years quietly amassing more than 3.9 million N95 masks and other protective gear before the pandemic hit, and has been busy sharing its stash around.
* Officials announce two more deaths at Fair Havens Senior Living Facility
* Republicans send Illinois Governor J.B. Pritzker this open letter about coronavirus
* With few powers during emergency, some Republican Illinois state lawmakers still want collaboration
* US farmers estimated to lose $20 billion in 2020 due to coronavirus crisis
* Meat prices impacted by plant closures due to coronavirus
* COVID-19 leaves livestock producers ‘in limbo’
* IDHS to close remaining local offices
* DuPage provides $85,000 to help pay for hotel rooms for the homeless
* UI dorms ready to receive health care workers if necessary
* College’s program prepares respiratory care therapists for pandemic
* What community colleges are doing with millions in federal COVID-19 relief funds
* Suburban forest preserves keep monitoring, will stay open ‘as long as people behave’
* Christian County reports fourth COVID-19 death
* Housing market is still moving, but it’s a tougher sell
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* US Department of Commerce…
Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for March 2020, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $483.1 billion, a decrease of 8.7 percent (±0.4 percent) from the previous month, and 6.2 percent (±0.7 percent) below March 2019.
* The NY Times reports that this is by far the biggest decline in three decades of government record-keeping…
And that’s just March. April is likely gonna be worse.
* From Mark Robyn, senior officer for state fiscal health at The Pew Charitable Trusts…
The sharp drop in retail spending we saw this morning poses significant challenges for state budgets. General sales taxes raise nearly a third of all state tax revenues nationally, and are the largest tax revenue source in 15 of the 45 states that collect them. They are particularly crucial for six states where they accounted for more than half of all tax collections (as of fiscal 2018): Florida, Nevada, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, and Washington.
Furthermore, this morning’s retail sales data illustrates how different this economic downturn is from past recessions. Historically, sales taxes have provided a relatively stable source of tax revenue for states, helping to smooth out the ups and downs from taxing more volatile economic activity such as capital gains, corporate income, or oil extraction. For the last two decades, they have been a more stable source of revenue than personal or corporate income, severance, and property taxes in all but four states where they are levied. Today’s drop in retail spending illustrates one more way the pandemic poses a new challenge for state leaders attempting to stabilize their budgets.
About 34 percent of the money collected by the Illinois Department of Revenue comes from sales taxes.
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About those Tillman op-eds
Wednesday, Apr 15, 2020 - Posted by Rich Miller
* John Tillman writing in the Chicago Tribune…
In July 2007, I took the reins at the Illinois Policy Institute. A year later, Lehman Brothers folded and a slowing economy turned into the Great Recession. We raised no material revenue until late January 2009. To survive, I cut every dollar of spending I could. I went without pay. I reached into my savings account and covered payroll, week after week and month after month.
* A Golden Horseshoe winner points out that Tillman did receive a significant salary in 2008 and 2009…
* I asked Tillman for a response…
People grasp for ridiculous things sometimes. I made my regular pay up until Sept. 15 that year. We had raised about $640,000 as of that date. We raised about $5,000 the rest of the year. Sometime that fall I began skipping paychecks for an extended period of time. I would skip paychecks and then other times I wouldn’t; it was a close thing week by week to make payroll.
As the 990s show, I loaned $23,000 to the organization as well. In addition, I fronted over $38,000 in expenses on my personal credit cards that I was eventually repaid in 2009. I also put in other money and never asked for it back. I lived it. What I remember most is wondering if we were going to make it, and we almost didn’t. This is what millions of people are going through right now and it breaks my heart thinking about the pressure they are under. Questioning what I went through in 2008, when so many people are going through the same thing I experienced, is incredibly petty and misses the entire point of my article.
* Back to the op-ed…
In the long term, fostering a strong economic recovery means eliminating avoidable uncertainty, particularly as it relates to tax burdens. That means abandoning plans to place a progressive tax hike on recovering businesses and canceling scheduled gas tax increases. It also means pausing all new capital spending and re-prioritizing projects from last year’s $45 billion capital bill, given now-lower revenue expectations.
* I asked Operating Engineers Local 150 for a response to Tillman’s call to pause all new capital spending…
People who are familiar with research on state economic development policy know that the most effective stimulus tool available to state governments is infrastructure investment. So if you want to foster an economic recovery, literally the last thing in the world you would do you would do is pause capital projects.
* Tillman also penned an op-ed for the Sun-Times…
My organization, the Illinois Policy Institute, is the strongest taxpayer advocate network in Illinois. I am proud that we have been able to use our megaphone to make sure the people of Illinois are seen and heard by state and local lawmakers, and we’ve fostered conversations within our community as to what should happen next.
Those conversations are open-minded and productive. The same is not true in Springfield, where so far the only specifics residents have heard in the way of economic problem-solving is pointing the finger at the federal government. In a crisis, strong leaders prove themselves by stepping up and taking action. My organization has commended Pritzker on his efforts to contain the spread of the virus when it was warranted — we understand that public health and people’s lives must always come first.
But we hear almost every day from people struggling to make ends meet, with no money coming in this month or last, and no idea when they’ll be able to work again. So we decided to open up a conversation, asking people what they think and what they’d like their leaders to do.
Instead of offering help to the Illinoisans we highlighted, a spokesperson for the governor proceeded to attack us for providing them a forum.
The spokesperson didn’t attack IPI for providing anyone a forum. The spokesperson went off on them for telling business owners that they wanted to use the stories to pressure the governor to reopen the economy.
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Today’s heroes: Advocate’s hospital workers
Wednesday, Apr 15, 2020 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Lizzie Schiffman Tufano at the Sun-Times…
Advocate Aurora Health discharged its 1,000th COVID-19 patient this week, a landmark that health care workers at the hospital system are celebrating by spotlighting the many individual victories behind that figure.
At Advocate Illinois Masonic Medical Center in Lake View, Carmen Benabe, 86, was released to quarantine at home four days after being admitted to the emergency room with a COVID-19 diagnosis, according to a release from the hospital system. Benabe’s daughter, Dalia Colon, said the family is thankful in a statement, and that her mom is looking forward to enjoying home-cooked Puerto Rican meals again soon.
At Advocate Trinity Hospital on the South Side, Paul Richards, 69, a retired Chicago firefighter and a Vietnam veteran, headed home amid a standing ovation, passing handmade posters that read “#GOINGHOME” after he spent two weeks on a ventilator for COVID-19 symptoms.
“It was like being in Vietnam,” Richards said in a release from the hospital. “Everyone responded with no hesitation. Everyone stepped up to do what they had to do and put their lives on the line to care for me.”
* Caption: Hospital workers at Advocate Illinois Masonic Medical Center in Chicago, Illinois cheer for Carmen Benabe, 86, as she’s released after four days of treatment for COVID-19…
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* I asked a spokesperson for the Illinois Retail Merchants Association why they believe the Illinois Workers’ Compensation Commission’s emergency rules this week violate state law. The new rules, you will recall, decree that it will be presumed that certain workers contracted COVID-19 on the job, allowing them to start receiving workers’ comp payments. That presumption can be challenged by employers, but it puts the onus on business. Employer groups were furious this week after the IWCC issued its rules. Here’s the response…
The business community believes the IWCC’s “emergency rule” violates state statute since an agency cannot make substantive policy changes in the rulemaking process. Rules are adopted to help implement laws passed by the General Assembly and signed by the Governor. While we are in an emergency situation, the scope of the ruling is outside what the statute allows them to do. That can only be done by the legislature.
Two points to consider here:
The firefighters have been pushing HB 2480 (or similar legislation) for years, which would add MRSA (Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus) to the list of ailments giving rise to a rebuttable presumption rule (i.e. employers must prove employees didn’t get it on the job.) Why are they pushing this legislatively; because under law they cannot simply have the IWCC change the law through rulemaking. This is exactly what happened yesterday though – ironically with the firefighters in attendance.
It’s important to note that courts have ruled on this issue repeatedly. In 2009, Governor Rod Blagojevich was sued by Ron Gidwitz and Greg Baise over the expansion of Kid Care. Blagojevich lost at every level and the case was finally settled in 2009 when Pat Quinn became Governor. That case cost Illinois nearly $2 million in legal fees. Keep in mind that Illinois statute (5 ILCS 100/10-55) provides that Illinois must pay the legal fees and reasonable expenses when an administrative rule is invalidated by a court for any reason, but not limited to the agency’s exceeding its statutory authority or the agency’s failure to follow statutory procedures in the adoption of the rule.
I reached out to the governor’s office late yesterday and haven’t yet heard back. I’ll let you know.
* Meanwhile, here’s Hannah Meisel’s story today on another topic…
New summons for wage garnishment and deductions, as well as citations to discover assets for debt collection, will be temporarily suspended for the duration of Illinois’ disaster proclamation prompted by the coronavirus just as Americans are set to begin receiving federal stimulus checks, per a new executive order signed by Gov. JB Pritzker Tuesday.
In the order, which was not publicized by Pritzker’s office, the governor described the measure as having been drafted “to ensure that residents have funds for essential items such as food, medicine, housing, and transportation.”
“Involuntary debt collection causes debtors to travel, including to courthouses and financial institutions, to seek relief from debt collection activity and, as a result, undermines critical efforts to maximize social distancing and prevent the spread of COVID-19,” the order said.
The Illinois Department of Financial and Professional Regulation announced the “protections” for stimulus money on Tuesday afternoon, though the agency did not mention the underlying executive order issued the same day.
The EO is here.
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West Side United Supports Illinois Kidney Care Alliance
Wednesday, Apr 15, 2020 - Posted by Advertising Department
[The following is a paid advertisement.]
In Illinois, more than 30,000 people suffer from kidney disease. To highlight their needs, organizations from across the state formed the Illinois Kidney Care Alliance (IKCA). This coalition – made up of health advocates and professionals, community and patient groups, health providers and businesses – is focused on raising awareness about those who suffer from kidney disease, who are among our society’s most vulnerable.
IKCA is proud to announce West Side United (WSU) as a new member of the coalition. WSU is a nonprofit that works with local residents to improve neighborhood health by addressing inequality in healthcare, education, economic vitality and the physical environment. By partnering with healthcare providers, education providers, the faith community, business, and government, WSU helps coordinate local investments and improve the quality of life for those on Chicago’s West Side.
IKCA’s goal is to protect these vulnerable populations, including those on life-sustaining dialysis and those waiting for a kidney transplant.
For more information, follow us on Twitter, like us on Facebook, and visit our website.
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Who Should Control The Remap Process?
Wednesday, Apr 15, 2020 - Posted by Advertising Department
[The following is a paid advertisement.]
In Illinois, the five people who have the ultimate say in shaping our state legislative districts include House Speaker Michael Madigan, Senate President Don Harmon, House Minority Leader Jim Durkin, Senate Minority Leader Bill Brady, and Governor J.B. Pritzker. If state lawmakers don’t follow the lead of other states and pass the Fair Maps Amendment, our representation will be determined by career politicians and attorneys.
Or, we could follow a path that would lead to a more diverse group representing the people of Illinois. If we follow California’s lead and establish an independent commission, we could have our next remap led by people who have spent their lives educating high schoolers, running small businesses and doing community foundation work and urban planning. That was the result of California’s first independent, citizen-led commission. Which group would you trust to represent your community’s interests?
State lawmakers must take votes on HJRCA41/SJRCA18, the Fair Maps Amendment, by May 3rd or we will be left with the status quo.
Learn more about the effort to end gerrymandering in Illinois by visiting: https://www.changeil.org/policy-priorities/redistricting-reform/
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* Frank Main with the scoop…
Gov. J.B. Pritzker is planning to obtain millions of masks and gloves from China and bring those supplies back to Illinois on charter jets — but he’s keeping the details secret out of fear the Trump administration might seize the cargo for the federal stockpile, sources said Tuesday.
Illinois Comptroller Susana Mendoza announced Tuesday that the state has spent more than $174 million on purchases related to COVID-19, including supplies such as ventilators, masks, gloves, gowns, protective eyewear and hand sanitizer.
But one of the items on the list of expenditures was unusual: two invoices, each for $888,275, to FedEx Trade Networks Transport for “aircraft charter flight to Shanghai, China for COVID-19 response. … Prepayment required.”
Jordan Abudayyeh, the press secretary for Pritzker, wouldn’t provide details about the flights, including when they will happen, how many there will be and what the routes are.
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Posted by Barton Lorimor
* Full economic recovery from a COVID-19 recession is not expected until the first quarter of 2023, say analysts for a major electric grid operator in 15 states and parts of Canada.
In an open meeting of its Planning Committee yesterday, PJM Interconnection repeated Moody’s Analytics’ belief the 2020 recession would cut the country’s GDP by 2.3 percent this year. The projections are important information for utilities as they try to grapple with a sudden departure from economic forecasts set earlier this year before COVID-19 contingency plans were thought to be required. It also comes at a time when electric load data is filling a void left by many traditional indicators many economists believe are faltering because of the sudden shift.
Andrew Gledhill, who presented the findings on behalf of PJM, said the recovery timeline is based on the presumption a vaccine is available by mid-2021, which may or may not happen, of course.
* PJM analysts say electric peaks have missed their projections by as much as 10 percent in some instances throughout the organization’s territory, which includes metropolitan Chicago. The most dramatic departures are on weekdays when residential and commercial loads resemble what is normally observed during a recession, Gledhill said.
A copy of the presentation is available here.
From the presentation materials…
On weekdays last week, peak came in on average 8-9% lower (~7,500 MW) than what we would have anticipated. The largest impacts thus far were around 10-11% on March 26th and 27th(~9,500 MW)
The drop off is observable on March 16. For context, that was the Monday before Gov. JB Pritzker and his counterparts in other states began issuing stay-in-place orders. Slowdowns are even more evident the following week…
This is preliminary data, so it is possible factors such as weather or solar energy could be altering the figures a bit. Gledhill said weather in March was “pretty atypical.”
* Our own analysis of PJM’s preliminary data for northern Illinois shows usage also appears to be slipping compared to loads in 2019, and at the same time highlighted by Gledhill…
Again, this is the preliminary data, which does not factor in the weather. That said, it would take a pretty significant weather event to make up for some of these readings.
* Some of what Gledhill said about PJM’s system-wide data struck a chord because they were trends we also noticed earlier this week while analyzing daily load data from MISO, which operates the grid used by Ameren Illinois customers. For instance, the March 23 dropoff is noticeable here, too…
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Open thread
Wednesday, Apr 15, 2020 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Baseball without fans. I dunno…
* Also…
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* From the governor’s press conference today…
On March, 22, the rate at which are COVID positive case count was doubling was just about two days. By April 1, that rate had increased to around 3.6 days. As of this Sunday, April 12, our case doubling rate had reached 8.2 days.
Similarly, our mortality, doubling rate has increased. At the beginning of April it was at 2.5 days, and it is now at 5.5 days.
To be clear, there is nothing good about twice as many people having this virus, or worse, dying from it. No matter how long the increase takes. But we won’t get to zero cases overnight. The fact that our doubling rate continues to increase in every metric is a clear demonstration that there is a deceleration of virus transmission. We are in fact, bending the curve.
* Hospitalization-related numbers…
Perhaps the most accurate leading indicator of our progress is our hospitalization data. Right now, if someone is sick enough with a respiratory illness to need hospital care, then it’s likely that that person has COVID-19, whether or not they have been tested.
On April 6, the number of known COVID patients and suspected COVID patients totaled 3680. On April 10, that number was 4020. On April 11, it was 4104. On April 12 4091. As of today, it was 4283.
As you can see these numbers are increasing. However, so too is our overall hospital capacity. Our hospitals are working every day to add beds. In August of 2019 just to give you a number, way before COVID-19 came to us, our state averaged about 25,500, total beds. As of this weekend, our total bed count is about 30,002.
Other important metrics are ICU beds and ventilators. A week ago, COVID patients as a percentage of ICU beds increased from 35% to 43%, an eight percentage point jump. COVID patients today occupy 40% of our total ICU beds, that’s down from the 43% a week ago.
In the same timeframe, COVID patients as a percentage of total ventilators grew from 24 to 29% of five point jump in a week. COVID patients today occupy 25% of our total ventilators both of those numbers are evidence of positive trends, a declining number percentage of ICU beds, occupied by COVID patients, and the declining number of ventilators occupied by COVID patients. Additionally, our total ventilator numbers are starting to reflect the additional ventilators that we’ve acquired now totaling more than 3000 across the state. Overall these numbers are indicators of our growing ability to manage capacity within the healthcare systems across Illinois.
Remember to pardon all transcription errors.
* More on hospitals…
No region is currently below 15% availability in any of these metrics, but there are individual hospitals that are operating at or near max capacity. Right now hospitals are by and large doing a great job of directing patients, amongst themselves, but if it becomes necessary I will not hesitate to step in to direct ICU patients to hospitals that are more available.
…Adding… From a press release…
* Lots of people coming in…
I am so deeply thankful for the now 3600 retired and out of state healthcare professionals who have applied to join the Illinois fight against COVID-19.
* Dr. Ezike then talked about recoveries…
We sent out these electronic surveys to people to catch their recovery rate at seven days, 14 days, 21 days and 28 days. As you can imagine people are getting better with time.
For people who don’t respond to this survey, we have a staff of 23 individuals who are calling to follow up. We’re making about 300 calls a day to people who didn’t respond, of which approximately half of those results in a successful interview.
So to share those results, I am happy to report that of the people who were surveyed at seven days, 44% have indicated recovery. At 14 days, the number increases to 50%. At 21 days after testing positive, we have 61% of people who responded, either to the initial electronic survey or the follow up telephone call, that they no longer have symptoms. And at 28 days, 69% of people reported no COVID-19 symptoms, and feeling much better. So again, people are getting better people recover from this disease.
It is important to note that not everyone responded to the survey so potentially the averages could be higher.
* On to questions for the governor. Asked about regional cooperation agreements with other governors…
I began this conversation really late last week with some of the East Coast governors. And then, over the last few days with my counterparts in Midwest states surrounding us.
Our goal of course for this is to start to think about what are the preconditions for beginning to allow certain kinds of businesses to open their doors again, to expand the definition of those who can work are those businesses they can have their doors open.
And again, as I’ve said the preconditions that I think are appropriate are a lot testing, tracing and treating. And then I would add to that the availability of PPE to the entire population, even those who might not be able to afford their own PPE so those things together I think are the preconditions and you know there are a lot of other things to discuss.
The governors that I’ve spoken with have been very frankly very positive about this idea. They’ve all been thinking about it individually for their states and understand that speaking with a common voice might be a positive move.
* Is this in part in response to the president saying that he’s going to be the one to dictate everything and he’s in control, if you will…
No. I in fact we’ve been all of us thinking about what’s next. We have our stay at home order in place that the closing of schools and so on. What comes next, what are the things that trigger a change. And you know how much you know how much can we do and how fast can we do it all of that I might add is going to be dependent upon what we hear from the epidemiologists and the doctors.
The governor was asked yet again why he didn’t shut down the primary election and he responded yet again that he had no constitutional authority to do so.
* Another part of that question was poll workers reporting that they had no sanitation supplies or related on primary day…
We were assured by the boards of elections that in fact they had the PPE or the sanitary devices that they needed. And we were willing to provide them. Indeed we were even willing to provide poll workers for them … At least in Chicago, that was rejected. And so, you know, that was their choice. They felt like they had a handle on it.
* Wondering if you can break it down by infection rate relative to the number of residents in Illinois…
I mean, it’s very hard to say because we aren’t testing everybody in the state of Illinois. What we know is that the percentage of people who are tested.
Let me back up just for everybody who hasn’t followed this. We’re testing people who show some symptoms of COVID-19. […]
It might be more useful to look at the broad global data that’s available and I’ll just share that with you as well. About 80% of people who get COVID-19, and by the way we believe everybody is susceptible to COVID-19. Period. End of sentence. You either have had it already, or you’re going to get it, unless we have a vaccine that prevents you from getting it which we don’t currently. So 80% of people who get COVID-19 recover just fine, don’t require hospitalization or anything of a significant medical intervention nature. About 19% require some further hospitalization or other intervention. And then about 1% unfortunately about point seven to 1% pass away, in, in many cases because they have either a comorbidity or they’re in an age bracket that is most susceptible.
* Another question about regional cooperation…
Look the conversations are very much, very similar that each of us might have, a slightly new idea to offer in the conversation. But when I talk about testing tracing and treating everybody understands exactly what that means. And that we in fact need to do that so widespread testing. So for example I talked to a governor, who’s talking about buying a commercial lab that exists in their state and converting it entirely to testing for COVID-19, and it would yield for that Governor 10s of thousands of tests on a daily basis. So that’s something they’re looking at to deal with the testing part. I am looking significantly at not only the increases in testing that we’ve begun to, to see at our seat labs and working with our hospitals, but on the tracing part, looking at models like what they are doing in Massachusetts, where they have a, you know, a case tracing collaborative that exists or at least that they’ve stood up but you know it’s just getting going where they’re just using good old fashioned shoe leather, to make sure and call every single person that may have come in contact with somebody who has COVID-19.
* Asked about Leader Brady’s request for a leaders meeting…
First of all I speak with the leaders all the time. I think every one of the leaders would tell you that I’ve had multiple conversations with them. And I’m always happy to have a, you know, we can convene a zoom conference or teleconference all of that. I’m happy to do any of that anytime with any of them. But I have been very communicative with each and every one of them. I’ve spoken with every leader probably, on average, once a week, maybe, maybe once every two weeks it’s hard to tell, but it’s usually we have an agenda of things that we’re discussing each of us, and we’re trying to make sure that we can keep things moving forward, those who might suggest that we haven’t been having those conversations or not paying attention to the fact that the leaders and I and the fact that I pick up the phone, virtually every day I call multiple legislators on both sides of the aisle to make sure that I’m communicating with them but even more importantly listening to them about concerns that their constituents may have and what we could do in the executive branch to make their their lives easier.
* Now on to a few questions from reporters trying to get him to whack the president. Do you worry that the criticism of the Trump administration could come with retribution that prevents Illinois from getting PPE and other help in the COVID battle?…
Well I compliment the administration when they do things right, when they deliver on their promises, and I’ve been critical when they don’t. And I think that is the proper way for me to operate I’m defending and working on behalf of the people of Illinois. And each time I have been critical we’ve actually received more from the federal government. And each time I’ve been complimentary it’s because they delivered on a promise to us and I was glad that I wanted people to know that.
* There’s a lot of talk about the president reopening the country. Are you going to be working with the white house as the president claims, or do you want to work mostly with state experts…
Well I’ll listen to anybody. But I what I won’t do anything that will jeopardize the safety and health of people here in Illinois.
* What is your administration heard about hydroxychloroquine? The President has said it should be used as a coronavirus cure. Do you think that’s good advice?…
Dr. Ezike: There are multiple different treatments that people are trying off label. Off label means that there’s a medicine that’s approved for a different cause but is now being tried for COVID-19 patients. So there are many, there’s antibiotics, there are antimalarials, which are anti parasitics, there are anti virus medicines. So, all different types of medicines are being employed. And then what we need to really figure out if it’s the right way forward and now it would go on to get FDA approval for a specific indication is to have these randomized controlled trials randomized controlled double blind trials, as the governor already described and so when you get these large scale trials and then you prove scientifically with sufficient power that there is one treatment is either better than placebo or better than an alternate treatment. Then that’s how it goes on to move for FDA approval.
So, again, anecdotally that’s where it starts where you get, as I hear stories that we tried this at work, we tried this work and the next step is to take it into trials. And so, again, people in terms of what recommendations are officially put out are usually based not on anecdotes, but more so on trials and the results of trials and so we’re looking forward to getting some of those results of some trials that might be going on so that we can spread on if some of these anecdotes actually proved to be factual and work great.
* With multiple projections showing billions of dollars in lost revenue due to COVID-19 and the Comptroller’s office showing nearly $200 million in cost What is your plan to close the gap in this year’s budget and when will you present a new FYI 21 plan?…
We’ll be talking about that later this week. It’s obviously been very much on our minds.
I spend an awful lot of time every day focused on trying to reduce the infections across the state and reduce the hospitalizations and the need for ventilators and of course reduce the death rate.
I have also had my budget and economy team working hard on exactly how big the hole will be from a revenue perspective as well as obviously the expanding that we’ve had to do to protect people in the state, and then try to project forward what does this mean for a budget in 2021.
And then ultimately we’re going to present our best ideas, and our best estimates to the legislature, who is finally responsible for passing a budget. But we’ll be presenting that going forward.
I think no one should mistake the fact that this is going to be a very, very difficult fiscal financial challenge for the state of Illinois. It’s one of the reasons why I think all of us should be communicating with our federal representatives here to work hard to get the government in Washington DC to help all of the states because we really have this problem in common with all the states you hear Governor’s say this all the time. We have big holes in our budgets as a result of what’s happened with COVID-19 it’s nobody’s fault it just is where it is and we’re going to have to deal with it.
* Given your concerns about summer events do you think the Illinois State Fair should proceed as scheduled?…
Well, we’re going to have to make decisions relatively soon because contracts have to be signed. And I think that was really the point I was making a few days ago when I talked about summer festivals was more or less just a lot of planning goes into these things and decisions have to be made.
So, yeah, I mean we’re gonna have to make some decisions. And I have as much fun as anybody does at the state fairs and I’m hopeful that we could have both our state fairs the one in DuQuoin and the one in Springfield. But I am also just going to listen to the experts and make sure that we do the right thing so that we don’t spread this COVID-19, and that we don’t have a spike in you know all the hospitalizations and ultimately and people passing away.
-30-
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* Press release…
he Illinois Department of Public Health (IDPH) today announced 1,222 new cases of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Illinois, including 74 additional deaths.
Cook County: 1 male 30s, 3 males 40s, 2 females 50s, 3 males 50s, 1 unknown 50s, 1 female 60s, 5 males 60s, 5 females 70s, 3 males 70s, 2 females 80s, 5 males 80s, 3 females 90s, 1 female 100+
DuPage County: 1 male 30s, 1 female 70s, 1 male 70s, 2 females 80s
Jackson County: 1 male 70s
Kankakee County: 1 male 80s
Lake County: 1 male 50s, 3 males 60s, 1 unknown 60s, 1 female 70s, 2 males 70s, 1 female 80s, 4 males 80s
McHenry County: 1 male 50s
Monroe County: 1 female 80s, 1 female 90s
Sangamon County: 1 female 70s
Tazewell County: 1 male 80s
Whiteside County: 1 female 90s
Will County; 1 male 40s, 1 female 60s, 1 male 60s, 1 female 70s, 2 males 70s, 4 males 80s, 2 females 90s, 1 female 100+
Clay County is now reporting a case. Currently, IDPH is reporting a total of 23,247 cases, including 868 deaths, in 88 counties in Illinois. The age of cases ranges from younger than one to older than 100 years.
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Question of the day
Tuesday, Apr 14, 2020 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Rep. Mike Zalewski (D-Riverside) gave himself a “co-hawk” (get it?) haircut to raise money to help local servers and waitstaff who lost their jobs. You can find out how to contribute by clicking here. This is a photo he sent me…
Um.
* The Question: Caption?
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* From Senate Republican Leader Bill Brady…
Today, I am calling on Governor Pritzker to convene the four legislative leaders to share what planning is underway as it relates to the reopening of our state. As no official notice has been made about extending the current stay-at-home order, I believe we need to begin discussions on an eventual, responsible opening of our state’s economy. And while I appreciate the governor’s willingness throughout this crisis to talk with me one-on-one, it is important for the leaders to meet.
Looks like member management to me. I’ve inquired as to whether he’s privately asked the governor for a leaders meeting before issuing this press release and am awaiting a response. I’ve also asked the same question of the governor’s office and asked the two Democratic leaders if he had talked to them about this. Madigan’s spokesperson said he wasn’t aware of any such request.
…Adding… From the SDems…
The Senate President talks with Leader Brady regularly and is always willing to talk with the governor and other leaders.
*** UPDATE *** The governor was asked about it today…
First of all I speak with the leaders all the time. I think every one of the leaders would tell you that I’ve had multiple conversations with them. And I’m always happy to have a, you know, we can convene a zoom conference or teleconference all of that. I’m happy to do any of that anytime with any of them. But I have been very communicative with each and every one of them. I’ve spoken with every leader probably, on average, once a week, maybe, maybe once every two weeks it’s hard to tell, but it’s usually we have an agenda of things that we’re discussing each of us, and we’re trying to make sure that we can keep things moving forward, those who might suggest that we haven’t been having those conversations or not paying attention to the fact that the leaders and I and the fact that I pick up the phone, virtually every day I call multiple legislators on both sides of the aisle to make sure that I’m communicating with them but even more importantly listening to them about concerns that their constituents may have and what we could do in the executive branch to make their their lives easier.
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* Center for Illinois Politics…
Ernie Tedeschi, a former economist for the U.S. Treasury, told The New York Times that it is the coronavirus itself – and not state orders to shut down businesses – that is the driving force behind the apparent recession now.
“States that haven’t yet closed businesses or put their populations on some sort of lockdown aren’t escaping enormous spikes in unemployment,” he said. “The pain is not just deep, it’s wide. This punctuates that the fundamental problem with the economy right now is the pandemic.”
That is my thinking as well. First fix or at least significantly mitigate the underlying problem and the economy will hopefully come back. It ain’t gonna come back if the problem is not fully addressed.
* WalletHub…
As the U.S. has embraced social distancing policies in order to minimize the spread of COVID-19, many businesses have shut their doors either voluntarily or by government order. […]
In order to find out the states whose unemployment percentages are most and least affected, WalletHub compared the 50 states and the District of Columbia across two key metrics. These metrics compare unemployment claim increases for the week of March 30 to both the same week in 2019 and the first week of 2020.
WalletHub also looked at this…
In order to find out where the pandemic has caused businesses to struggle most, WalletHub compared the 50 states and the District of Columbia across 12 key metrics. Our data set ranges from the share of small businesses operating in high-risk industries to small-business credit conditions and the state’s small-business friendliness.
* Here are a few states with their stay at home order dates, their rankings for unemployment insurance (UI) application increases and WalletHub’s small business rankings. In both instance, the higher the number, the better off the states are. Illinois stacks up well in both counts, even though it was one of the first states to adopt a stay at home order…
March 21: Illinois - Rankings: UI 42nd, Biz 45th;
March 30: North Carolina - Rankings: UI 7th, Biz 9th;
March 31: Arizona - Rankings: UI 12th, Biz 7th;
April 2: Georgia - Rankings: UI 4th, Biz 12th;
April 2: Maine - Rankings: UI 23rd, Biz 19th;
April 3: Florida - Rankings: UI 18th, Biz 16th;
April 3: Mississippi - Rankings: UI 5th, Biz 4th;
April 4: Alabama - Rankings: UI 24th, Biz 27th;
Still no order: Iowa - Rankings: UI 31st, Biz 31st
This isn’t a perfect metric by any means, but it does show you that economies shut down because of the virus. People essentially voted with their feet.
Until governments at all levels take a serious and effective approach to this virus, people are not going to feel safe.
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COVID-19 roundup
Tuesday, Apr 14, 2020 - Posted by Rich Miller
* I’m told that Pritzker and his staff started reaching out yesterday. Here’s Greg Hinz…
With an eye on what’s happening on the coasts, Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker has begun talking with his peers in other Midwestern states about adopting a joint policy on reopening the Midwest economy as the COVID-19 pandemic curve appears to be flattening.
Pritzker’s office is confirming that both he and key staff members have been on the phone as governors in the Northeast and Pacific Coast areas step up regional coordination in advance of an expected national move by President Donald Trump that may or may not fit local priorities.
“The governor is interested in exploring something like what’s happening on the East and West Coasts for the Midwest,” spokeswoman Jordan Abudayyeh told me in a phone call. “It would be some sort of regional cooperation.”
“The conversations are being had,” she said, while declining to confirm whether Pritzker has spoken directly with his counterparts in Indianapolis, Madison or elsewhere. “I think our goal is to work together on things such as what do you do about stay-at-home orders, legalities and so forth.”
* Meanwhile, business interests were completely surprised by the governor’s workers’ comp move yesterday. Here’s Hannah Meisel…
Illinois Manufacturers’ Association President and CEO Mark Denzler told The Daily Line on Monday that he last spoke to Workers’ Compensation Commission members on Friday afternoon, and was not warned of the emergency rule coming down the pipeline.
Instead, Denzler said he thought commission members were on the same page as him in believing the Illinois Workers’ Occupational Diseases Act would cover any situation that arose if an essential worker were infected with Covid-19.
According to the law, “a disease shall be deemed to arise out of the employment if there is apparent to the rational mind, upon consideration of all the circumstances, a causal connection between the conditions under which the work is performed and the occupational disease.”
Denzler said he understood the rationale of assuming a nurse, for example, would most likely be exposed to Covid-19 at work, but said employees in manufacturing, retail or hospitality could still be able to claim workers’ compensation if they came down with the virus even if they were not exposed at work.
“It’s going to make it very difficult for employers to defend against [workers’ compensation] claims,” Denzler said. “I’m disappointed that the commission did not reach out to the employer community to have a discussion about this and the governor’s office didn’t reach out to employer community to see if there could be a compromise…as opposed to a dictate coming down on a Monday morning.”
The governor initially said yesterday that the new rules would allow workers to receive workers’ comp if they got COVID-19 on the job. But that’s definitely not what the new rules actually say. It’s now automatically presumed workers got the virus on the job.
* On to selected headlines from the Tribune’s live blog…
Illinois National Guard opens drive-up COVID-19 testing site in Markham
South suburban first responders to get distribution of N95 protective masks
As Chicago, other cities report racial disparities in COVID-19 cases, Illinois Democrats call on Trump administration to collect nationwide data
More than 360 retired teachers offer free virtual tutoring to Illinois students as schools remain closed
The number of background check requests for gun transactions breaks records in March as coronavirus lockdown took effect
200 residents of Aurora homeless shelter bused to Schaumburg hotel to help prevent spread of coronavirus
* From the Sun-Times’ live blog…
At Chicago shelter for immigrant kids, more than half test positive for COVID-19
Infectious disease expert awaiting murder trial requests release to research COVID-19
Things to do with your kids while self-quarantining at home
Why Blacks are hit hardest by COVID-19 — and what that says about health care in America
The Cook County medical examiner’s office Monday confirmed 55 additional COVID-19 deaths, bringing the total in the county to 581.
A 16th employee at the Cook County Circuit Court clerk’s office has tested positive for COVID-19.
Chicago police Monday announced 30 more confirmed case of COVID-19, bringing the number of cases in the department to 200.
* Roundup…
* WHO officials say it’s unclear whether recovered coronavirus patients are immune to second infection
* Illinois business climate better than most states amid pandemic, study shows - Illinois has the 7th least affected small business marketplace
* States largely have authority over when to shut down, reopen during coronavirus pandemic
* ‘There is no downtime’: What it’s like for ER doctor dealing with COVID-19 during a 10-hour shift
* As demand grows, association says Illinois Secretary of State not helping license new truck drivers
* Five inmates that tested positive for COVID-19 in the state prison system have died: Rice had been in prison since the early 1980s on charges related to child molestation when he admitted he earlier had kidnapped, raped and killed an 11-year-old Oak Forest boy. Rice received an additional 80-year term for the murder.
* Chicago primary voters notified of possible virus exposure
* At least 2,300 nursing homes have coronavirus cases — and the reality is likely much worse: The new coronavirus is racing through America’s nursing homes, and the impact has been far greater than the federal government has said.
* Microsoft, UPS and health care companies create app so you can donate masks to hospitals
* John A. Logan, SIU classes to continue online only into summer semester
* Responding to Blaine Wilhour’s questioning of safety measures
* Shutdown could cost Quincy more than $2.3 million in lost tax revenue
* How Macon County’s local governments are operating in a socially distant world
* Little Village coal plant smokestack implosion sparks outrage, plans for class action lawsuit
* As Cook County grapples with climbing death count, pop-up morgue troubles neighbors
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Today’s quotable
Tuesday, Apr 14, 2020 - Posted by Rich Miller
* From the Atlantic…
During the Vietnam War, Vice Admiral James Stockdale spent seven years being tortured in a Hanoi prison. When asked about his experience, he noted that optimistic prison-mates eventually broke, as they passed one imagined deadline for release after another. Stockdale’s strategy, instead, was to meld hope with realism—“the need for absolute, unwavering faith that you can prevail,” as he put it, with “the discipline to begin by confronting the brutal facts, whatever they are.”
Do yourself a favor and read the rest of that article. Lots of sobering stuff in there about tests, drug shortages, the limitations and serious shortcomings of antibody tests and plenty more.
And, by the way, “brutal facts” does not mean twisted facts. It means real actual honest to goodness facts, which seem to be in short supply.
Also, it’s not been widely reported, but Abbott’s much acclaimed ID Now rapid test, which provides results in 5-13 minutes, can only process one sample at a time.
That means running the machine 24 hours without pauses or glitches, produces between 111 and 288 results. That’s fine for an individual hospital, but it’s not so great for widespread testing.
Stay frosty.
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* This looks quite useful…
The Office of Illinois Comptroller has established an online portal showing the state’s COVID-19 coronavirus-related purchases and amounts spent on necessary supplies for the ongoing fight against the deadly virus.
The portal can be found at https://illinoiscomptroller.gov/covid19-information/.
As of April 10, Illinois has spent more than $174 million on purchases related to COVID-19, including such supplies as ventilators, masks, gloves, gowns, protective eyewear, hand sanitizer, swabs and more.
The site will be updated daily.
This effort is part of Illinois State Comptroller Susana Mendoza’s transparency initiative to make state spending, revenues and other public data easily accessible to taxpayers, the media and elected officials.
“As long as this unprecedented public health crisis continues, my office will prioritize payments for the tools and supplies our frontline health care workers need to protect themselves, their patients and our communities,” Mendoza said.
“I hope our online portal showing Illinois’ investment in fighting this deadly virus will help drive home the message that none of this should be taken lightly and that people need to stay home and stay safe.”
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* Chicago Magazine is out with its list of 50 most powerful women in the city. Frankly, many if not most would be on my list of the city’s most powerful people, regardless of gender.
Anyway, Number 1 is Mayor Lightfoot, of course. Their Number 5 is the governor’s chief of staff Anne Caprara…
Before her 30th birthday, Caprara had served as chief of staff to two different members of Congress. She has since overseen Hillary Clinton’s $190 million PAC — the largest in presidential campaign history — and, without the benefit of membership in the Illinois old boys’ network, run the campaign that beat Republican governor Bruce Rauner by almost 16 points. Now Governor Pritzker’s chief of staff, she’s been his point person for the state’s massive coronavirus response. And she’s funny on Twitter, too.
Just about anyone who knows her will read that last sentence and likely think of this…
You mean, let me understand this ’cause, ya know maybe it’s me, I’m a little #@&%*$ up maybe, but I’m funny how? I mean, funny like, I’m a clown? I amuse you? I make you laugh? I’m here to #@&%*$ amuse you? What do you mean funny? Funny how? How am I funny?
She’s quite something. And she more than earned that place on the list.
Anyway, congrats to all!
Any additions you’d make to their list?
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* Multiple reporters ask the governor multiple questions every day about when and how he plans to ease or even lift his stay at home order, which is a little more than three weeks old. It’s like they don’t listen to what he said the day before or even five minutes before. And many of their stories don’t really inform readers/viewers about what the answers actually were, which then prompts more questions because the public is confused.
NBC 5 actually listened yesterday…
While the state of Illinois’ stay-at-home order currently runs through April 30, Governor J.B. Pritzker says there are at least three things that will need to happen before restrictions can be significantly eased.
During his press conference Monday, Pritzker said that there is a chance that the stay-at-home order could be modified after it expires on April 30, but cautioned that there is still a long way to go before all businesses can re-open and gatherings can once again be held.
Barring a vaccine, Pritzker says that the lack of herd immunity leaves a three-fold path toward a significant move toward normalcy.
To sum up the meat of the story…
1) Widespread testing (at least 10,000 test results each and every day);
2) A contact tracing system must be in place;
3) “We need a treatment to lessen the severity of the symptoms, so that fewer people go to the hospital, fewer move from a regular hospital bed to an ICU bed, and fewer go from an ICU bed to a ventilator.”
This answer isn’t new, by the way. He’s been saying the same thing for days and days.
* But Pritzker opened himself to more questions when he briefly mentioned possible changes. Here’s Doug Finke…
Pritzker again declined to speculate on whether K-12 schools will reopen this school year or whether they will remain closed as they are in some other states.
“I promise I will tell you as soon as I know the answer to that question,” he said.
However, when the governor was asked if he might lift his stay-at-home order by May 1, he indicated changes were coming.
“I think it’s likely that there will be adjustments to the orders that we have put in place,” he said without specifying what they may be or timing of an announcement.
“I promise I will tell you as soon as I know the answer to that question,” is a good response. I mean, it’s not like he’s gonna wait for a reporter to ask a question about schools before announcing his decision.
But then he went beyond that response and now we’d like to know what sort of changes might be in store.
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* Rep. Mark Batinick (R-Plainfield) has written an open letter to the governor. This is just one excerpt and, in context, he is also calling for limited openings of some retailers, which I’m not sure I agree with since the peak has not yet arrived. But, anyway, here you go…
New studies are showing that wearing a covering of any kind on the face can significantly slow the spread of the disease. Even today, I still see many store employees and customers in a busy grocery store without any protective equipment. Restaurants offering carry-out and delivery are also not requiring staff to wear PPE.
It should become a requirement for all employees and customers to wear face coverings inside stores and restaurants.
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