SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
CapitolFax.com
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
Some polls either got it backwards or completely missed the margins

Wednesday, Mar 21, 2012

* Democrat Ilya Sheyman’s loss to Brad Schneider in the 10th Congressional District was yet another big surprise last night. Politico’s take

[Sheyman’s] loss is a crushing blow to the organized professional left, which poured substantial resources into the primary, making it a national priority for the movement.

A poll by Public Policy Polling last week showed Sheyman with a double-digit lead, so the margin is one of most stunning outcomes of the night.

Yes, it is. And you can bet that the DCC is breathing a little easier today. Sheyman would’ve probably been too far to the left to win the moderate, ticket-splitting 10th CD against freshman Republican Bob Dold. Some analysis from the NRCC…

Dold’s challenger Brad Schneider, comes off a bruising Democrat primary where he didn’t break 50% over a 25-year-old. Endorsed by Nancy Pelosi, Schneider’s support for her national energy tax won’t bode well for Illinois families who are already paying record-high gas prices. During his primary, Schneider said that he wouldn’t join the Blue Dog Coalition, signaling that he will be another partisan rubber-stamp in Congress. In addition, Schneider is going to have a lot of ground to make up against Bob Dold’s fundraising prowess and retail campaign skills. Dold has a cash advantage of over $1 million compared to Schneider, a significant gap in what is sure to be a costly race.

* The polls weren’t off everywhere, but as I told you yesterday, Republican Congressman Adam Kinzinger’s last tracker had him up by just three points over GOP Congressman Don Manzullo. The Kinzinger campaign was collectively biting its nails even after the AP had declared he’d won. But with 99 percent reporting, Kinzinger soundly defeated Manzullo 56-44.

KInzinger had a superior field operation and he’s a telegenic candidate. He also won the new part of the district

Both performed strongly in the parts of the district they’d previously represented, but Kinzinger won over the new part of the district by a solid margin.

* Tipping point?

TBut another key factor was the role played by the Campaign for Primary Accountability, which showered the district with $ 211,500 in TV and radio ads, robo-calls, and mailers in the last three weeks, slamming Mr. Manzullo for voting for spending proposals backed by Democrats.

The PAC is a small collection of about a dozen individuals, almost all of them conservative, Republican, Texan, or all three of the above. They helped unseat GOP incumbent Rep. Jean Schmidt of Ohio on super Tuesday, and since then, have made an impact in several other primaries in both parties.

* Nobody predicted this margin

Democratic U.S. Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr. coasted to a big win against long-time foe Debbie Halvorson, a former congresswoman.

In the 2nd Congressional District contest, Jackson had 71.2 percent of the vote to Debbie Halvorson’s 28.8 percent with 99 percent of the unofficial vote counted.

That’s just jaw-dropping, if you ask me. Halvorson could very well be finished in this business. She has, for far too long, engaged in a war with Jackson over the third regional airport location. She demanded to be appointed Illinois Secretary of Transportation, but she was refused and then she turned down other cabinet positions to run against Jackson in an almost surely no-win race.

Sometimes, I really don’t understand people.

* Breakdown

Halvorson pulled in 2,686 votes in Will County to Jackson’s 1,709, and in Kankakee County, Halvorson brought in 2,395 to Jackson’s 1,182. Will County and Kankakee-area officials have never taken kindly to Jackson’s advocacy for a south suburban airport.

In Cook County, Jackson pulled in 31,847 votes to Halvorson’s 11,049. In the city of Chicago, Jackson posted 19,700 to Halvorson’s 5,721.

* Nor this one

In the 8th, former Assistant Secretary of Veterans Affairs Tammy Duckworth handily beat Raja Krishnamoorthi 67 percent to 33 percent.

“I am so proud to be standing here in front of you, ready to bring back common sense and practical solutions to Washington because that’s what the residents of the 8th district need. That’s what they deserve,” Duckworth told supporters in Homewood.

Duckworth goes on to compete against Joe Walsh.

Most of us figured she’d win big, but 67 percent is pretty darned huge for such a hotly contested primary.

Have at it.

- Posted by Rich Miller        


13 Comments
  1. - Shore - Wednesday, Mar 21, 12 @ 11:30 am:

    My first thought from last night is that after a lot of political turmoil over the last 4 cycles driven in part by the iraq war failure and the troubled economy we’re starting to return to politics as normal. People just aren’t as pissed anymore and willing to go against the grain. Romney won, moveon was beaten back in the north suburbs, duckworth and jackson cruised, plummer won. Perhaps I am wrong, but that was my big takeaway.


  2. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Mar 21, 12 @ 11:33 am:

    ===* Nobody predicted this margin… ===

    I did! …lol

    I got MORE than a few wrong too, but I said 70-30 J-Trips …

    (keeping it light, Rich, j/k)


  3. - so.... - Wednesday, Mar 21, 12 @ 11:39 am:

    With regard to Halvorson, that crushing defeat couldn’t have happened to a more deserving person.


  4. - wordslinger - Wednesday, Mar 21, 12 @ 11:40 am:

    Judging by turnout, apathy was running rampant. That’ll mess up your polls.


  5. - Cheryl44 - Wednesday, Mar 21, 12 @ 11:41 am:

    I’m not at all surprised about the Halvorson margin. I am surprised at the Duckworth/Krishnamoorthi margin–I would have had a problem choosing between the two of them if I lived in that district.


  6. - Bill - Wednesday, Mar 21, 12 @ 11:43 am:

    The polls were pretty accurate early in the Duckworth race. They had her up by 35-40. This race was hotly contested only in Raja’s mind. My advice to him stays the same. Start out trying for state rep or county board. Leave statewide and federal to the pros for now. Work your way up. Learn as you go.


  7. - clark st. - Wednesday, Mar 21, 12 @ 11:53 am:

    ” My advice to him stays the same. Start out trying for state rep or county board. Leave statewide and federal to the pros for now. Work your way up. Learn as you go.”

    Agreed. I’ll never understand why he insisted on staying in this primary after Tammy got in. Sometimes working hard against all odds crosses the line into stubbornness. I think that’s what happened here.


  8. - Glory Days - Wednesday, Mar 21, 12 @ 12:28 pm:

    I’d want my money back if I were the PCCC and MoveOn; I’d be even more upset if I contributed to Ilya based on that poll. Heck, even the campaign put out a press release yesterday that had Sheyman looking past Schneider and onto Dold.

    If you apply the 45-27% Sheyman/Schneider poll to the election, the erroneous poll overestimated Sheyman’s tally by 2100 votes and underestimated Schneider’s by over 6500 votes. Wow. Just ridiculous.


  9. - Ace Matson - Wednesday, Mar 21, 12 @ 12:40 pm:

    Sheyman is to the Dems what Santorum is to the GOP: a fanatical true believer who is unelectable in the fall before a centrist electorate.


  10. - Anonymous - Wednesday, Mar 21, 12 @ 1:21 pm:

    Duckworth won big and all the best to her, but that’s a paltry number of votes (25-26,000 total) for a high-profile primary. Looks like she’ll need a lot of help and Obama’s coattails to be competitive against Walsh.


  11. - Scott Cisek - Wednesday, Mar 21, 12 @ 3:20 pm:

    If Ilya Sheyman’s “progressive” supporters in the city of Chicago had not wasted so much time, effort, and treasure trying to take out Toni Berrios, a pro-choice, pro LGBT progressive Latina, with one of their rich white college buddies from out of town, Sheyman might have been able to pull it off. As a big progressive myself, watching the “organized professional left” makes me think of Voltaire’s comment on the Holy Roman Empire. They are neither organized, nor professional, nor supportive of leftys outside of their clique. Sad.


  12. - Retired Non-Union Guy - Wednesday, Mar 21, 12 @ 3:28 pm:

    Some of us are just refusing to talk to the pollsters and robo-callers … or if we do, we lie outrageously …


  13. - mark walker - Wednesday, Mar 21, 12 @ 3:45 pm:

    Even in the 8th and 10th, turnout was very light. Apathy was the clear winner in this primary, for both sides. Hard to say what that means.


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


* Reader comments closed until Memorial Day
* Gaming bill could grow
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - OT update
* Question of the day
* He gone
* Harmon: Rauner is "bullying" and "holding the entire state hostage"
* Today's quotable
* Madigan tax hike defeated
* Another welcomed change
* Business as usual is right
* Rauner to unveil actual bills today, with no "right to work" in sight
* Serving Consumers, Honoring Veterans – Credit Union Cooperative Values in Action
* Your daily "right to work" roundup
* *** LIVE *** Session coverage
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Supplement to today’s edition
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today's edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)
* Good morning!
* Yesterday's blog posts

Support CapitolFax.com
Visit our advertisers...

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............


Search This Blog...

Search the 98th General Assembly By Bill Number
(example: HB0001)

Search the 98th General Assembly By Keyword

          
        * Our 5 favourite new Windows Phone apps of the week
        * Huawei bringing fingerprint scanner to budget smartphone
        * Job cuts in the works for BlackBerry
        * NVIDIA Shield Tablet getting Android 5.1 update
        * Count finance manager app brings new features in update
        * Switcheroo wants you to take control things using Bluetooth LE
        * Atlantic Fleet lets you experience being a Royal Navy sailor

        * EaseUS Partition Master Pro – Review and Giveaway
        * BlackBerry Laying Off Workers in Handset Unit
        * This Week's Top Downloads
        * Turn a Jar of Mayo Into the Perfect Hiding Place for Your Valuables
        * Noisli for Chrome Generates Background Sound to Keep You Productive
        * ‘Tomorrowland’ (The Movie) And the Future of the Past
        * Why You Should Protect Even Your Most Unimportant Data

        * Sale runs into early trouble with fastball
        * Konerko, family honored by speed of number retirement
        * In a flash, Sale burned by early home runs
        * Konerko's No. 14 retired on South Side
        * Quintana looks to come out on top with a little run support
        * Bond between Ozzie, Konerko one of respect
        * Twins 4, White Sox 3: Sold-out crowd can't fire up offense

        ...............


        Main Menu
        Home
        Illinois
        YouTube
        Pundit rankings
        Obama
        Subscriber Content
        Durbin
        Burris
        Blagojevich Trial
        Advertising
        Updated Posts
        Polls

        Archives
        May 2015
        April 2015
        March 2015
        February 2015
        January 2015
        December 2014
        November 2014
        October 2014
        September 2014
        August 2014
        July 2014
        June 2014
        May 2014
        April 2014
        March 2014
        February 2014
        January 2014
        December 2013
        November 2013
        October 2013
        September 2013
        August 2013
        July 2013
        June 2013
        May 2013
        April 2013
        March 2013
        February 2013
        January 2013
        December 2012
        November 2012
        October 2012
        September 2012
        August 2012
        July 2012
        June 2012
        May 2012
        April 2012
        March 2012
        February 2012
        January 2012
        December 2011
        November 2011
        October 2011
        September 2011
        August 2011
        July 2011
        June 2011
        May 2011
        April 2011
        March 2011
        February 2011
        January 2011
        December 2010
        November 2010
        October 2010
        September 2010
        August 2010
        July 2010
        June 2010
        May 2010
        April 2010
        March 2010
        February 2010
        January 2010
        December 2009
        November 2009
        October 2009
        September 2009
        August 2009
        July 2009
        June 2009
        May 2009
        April 2009
        March 2009
        February 2009
        January 2009
        December 2008
        November 2008
        October 2008
        September 2008
        August 2008
        July 2008
        June 2008
        May 2008
        April 2008
        March 2008
        February 2008
        January 2008
        December 2007
        November 2007
        October 2007
        September 2007
        August 2007
        July 2007
        June 2007
        May 2007
        April 2007
        March 2007
        February 2007
        January 2007
        December 2006
        November 2006
        October 2006
        September 2006
        August 2006
        July 2006
        June 2006
        May 2006
        April 2006
        March 2006
        February 2006
        January 2006
        December 2005
        April 2005
        March 2005
        February 2005
        January 2005
        December 2004
        November 2004
        October 2004

        Blog*Spot Archives
        November 2005
        October 2005
        September 2005
        August 2005
        July 2005
        June 2005
        May 2005

        Syndication

        RSS Feed 2.0
        Comments RSS 2.0
        WordPress

        Loading


        * Erickson: Legislators do agree on some things: .....
        * Illinois electronics recycling bill headed to g.....
        * Tom Kacich: Bill killing 50 percent tuition wai.....
        * Madigan request met by Killeen..
        * Protect bottom line and think outside the deficit..
        * Legislators do agree on some things: the state .....
        * No end in sight for Rauner, Illinois lawmakers..
        * Speaker's control hasn't helped state..
        * Junk-rated Chicago to test bond market..
        * Ideology, not money, holding up state budget deal..


        * Cahokia, Lincoln-Way and Illini West win state championships
        * Jeni's scoop shops reopen after listeria-related shutdown
        * Man set for deportation granted reprieve to donate kidney
        * 2 children thrown from SUV in Illinois crash; 1 killed
        * Law fails to stop Illinois schools from fattening pensions
        * Video captures Chicago officer apparently asleep
        * Chlorine leak sickens 9 at Naperville swimming school
        * Medical pot businesses to battle black market for customers
        * 4-year-old girl shot in head outside Chicago prom party
        * Democrats giving no hint of compromise with Rauner on budget

        * Illinois crib bumper bills stall in Senate
        * Statehouse Insider: Relax, there's a whole week left get it all done
        * Special funds inviting bailout target for Illinois
        * Illinois road construction funds get swept
        * Law fails to stop Illinois schools from fattening pensions
        * Rauner agenda surfaces at Capitol
        * Illinois prisons director resigns 2 months after taking job
        * House Democrats vote down workers comp bill
        * Langfelder talks DNR lake partnership
        * U of I bracing for 'very damaging' cuts, new president says

        * Boeing takes top spot in 2015 largest publicly traded companies list
        * Terminal spending
        * Plenty of rivals are following WeWork into co-working competition
        * How Wal-Mart is hurting Mondelez
        * Why this proposed emergency room annoys the hospital industry


          * Anguished cries of mother punctuate Chicago weekend violence
          * 4 dead, at least 8 wounded in city shootings
          * Girl, 5, killed in hit-and-run crash
          * Man charged with murder in Bridgeport shooting
          * No bail for man accused of accidentally shooting bystander
          * $1 million bail for boy, 16, charged with armed robbery
          * Purdue adopts 'Chicago principles' to protect free speech
          * Prosecutors: Theft suspect used fake credit card for limo ride
          * Taft drummers march to beat of beginnings, an ending at Memorial Day Parade
          * Endangered butterfly now missing at Indiana Dunes


          * Illinois Supreme Court hears $10B Phillip Morris appeal
          * Sheriff calls on feds to investigate Puerto Rican agencies that send addicts to Chicago
          * Sheriff names clinical psychologist to run Cook County Jail
          * Illinois prisons director resigns 2 months after taking job
          * Obama library foundation raised $5.4 million in 2014
          * Illinois moves to downgrade pot possession to a fine
          * Emanuel calls on Chicagoans to prevent 'lost generation'
          * Grand Jury Indicts 6 Baltimore Officers In Freddie Gray's Death
          * Inauguration Day: New City Council faces serious financial problems
          * Avian flu outbreak takes poultry producers into uncharted territory


          * Bernard Schoenburg: Adam Lopez, Rob Mellon, vie to win Aaron Schock's former U.S. House seat for Democrats
          * Illinois crib bumper bills stall in Senate
          * Statehouse Insider: Relax, there's a whole week left get it all done
          * Statehouse Insider: Relax, there's a whole week left get it all done
          * Our Opinion: Will someone please lead Illinois?
          * Special funds inviting bailout target for Illinois
          * Andy Shaw: Campaign finance in a sorry state
          * Illinois road construction funds get swept
          * Law fails to stop Illinois schools from fattening pensions
          * Proud of WWII service, they opposed Vietnam War


          * Taking action: Plan outlines ways to fix mental health system
          * Letter from Birdland: Youngest member of flock returns
          * Look back: Highlights from Melissa Merli on the week that was
          * Boycott fair over beer tent outrage?
          * Library events, May 24-31, 2015
          * Building permits, May 24, 2015
          * 'Bleeding Kansas’ rallying cry at great political gathering
          * Unions are really about better wages
          * Lower tuition plan for 2-year colleges is smart, necessary
          * No end in sight for Rauner, Illinois lawmakers


          * Vermette's goal in second OT knots series
          * Saad helps deliver in must-win game for Hawks
          * APEC trade chiefs vow to speed up work in WTO
          * Images: An Hour in Geneva
          * Baseball fans take a swing at designated hitter debate

          * Durbin backs crackdown on NSA snooping
          * Dold hosts veterans in round table discussion
          * Kirk's first ad tells his stroke recovery ...
          * Memorial Day events in the Heartland 2015
          * Here are the Republicans who voted ‘no’ to...
          * Rep. Mike Bost: Saying ‘Goodbye’ to a Fami...
          * TV News shows
          * Roger That: Costello bill extends honors f...
          * Bustos Seeking Wounded Warrior Fellow for ...
          * Black candidates make history in McKeesport

          * Congress' familiar path: short-term solutions...
          * Congress' familiar path: Short-term fixes...
          * Congress takes familiar path: short-term f......
          * Congress' short-term fixes a habit...

          * Don’t delay new standards...

          * Every Jack Has His Cal
          * CPS scandal. Solomon, Byrd-Bennett, Swanson, Brizard, Vitale, Emanuel, Zopp, Vallas. Mums the word.
          * Didn’t the Chicago Tribune support Mussolini last time too?
          * The Popular Vote vs. the Electoral College
          * Rep. Ives and Assessor Dixon: The Numbers Behind Madigan's Property Tax Bill
          * The Wrath of CON | How Certificate-Of-Need Laws Affect Access to Health Care
          * Morrison: Why I voted no on HB217
          * Just a Common Soldier: A Moving Tribute for Memorial Day
          * Legal rights group applauds Rauner's reform proposals
          * Thorner: Leo Catholic High School students provide evidence favoring school choice


          * The Illinois Department of Public Health Urges Illinoisans to Take Precautions Against West Nile Virus - Illinois Department of Public Health offers tips for avoiding mosquito bites
          * IDOT Suspends Non-Emergency Road Work for Memorial Day Holiday Weekend - Lanes Opened to Improve Traffic Flow
          * Illinois State Fire Marshal Recognizes EMS Week
          * IDOT, ISP: Drive Safe, Drive Smart Over Memorial Day Weekend - Click It or Ticket Campaign Continues, New “Driving Dead” Episode Debuts
          * Breakfast Club Fans Can Take Home Movie Memorabilia with Special 30th Anniversary Auction - Theater Chairs from Set of Iconic Movie Up for Sale




              Hosted by MCS SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax Advertise Here Mobile Version Contact Rich Miller