SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
CapitolFax.com
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
Some polls either got it backwards or completely missed the margins

Wednesday, Mar 21, 2012

* Democrat Ilya Sheyman’s loss to Brad Schneider in the 10th Congressional District was yet another big surprise last night. Politico’s take

[Sheyman’s] loss is a crushing blow to the organized professional left, which poured substantial resources into the primary, making it a national priority for the movement.

A poll by Public Policy Polling last week showed Sheyman with a double-digit lead, so the margin is one of most stunning outcomes of the night.

Yes, it is. And you can bet that the DCC is breathing a little easier today. Sheyman would’ve probably been too far to the left to win the moderate, ticket-splitting 10th CD against freshman Republican Bob Dold. Some analysis from the NRCC…

Dold’s challenger Brad Schneider, comes off a bruising Democrat primary where he didn’t break 50% over a 25-year-old. Endorsed by Nancy Pelosi, Schneider’s support for her national energy tax won’t bode well for Illinois families who are already paying record-high gas prices. During his primary, Schneider said that he wouldn’t join the Blue Dog Coalition, signaling that he will be another partisan rubber-stamp in Congress. In addition, Schneider is going to have a lot of ground to make up against Bob Dold’s fundraising prowess and retail campaign skills. Dold has a cash advantage of over $1 million compared to Schneider, a significant gap in what is sure to be a costly race.

* The polls weren’t off everywhere, but as I told you yesterday, Republican Congressman Adam Kinzinger’s last tracker had him up by just three points over GOP Congressman Don Manzullo. The Kinzinger campaign was collectively biting its nails even after the AP had declared he’d won. But with 99 percent reporting, Kinzinger soundly defeated Manzullo 56-44.

KInzinger had a superior field operation and he’s a telegenic candidate. He also won the new part of the district

Both performed strongly in the parts of the district they’d previously represented, but Kinzinger won over the new part of the district by a solid margin.

* Tipping point?

TBut another key factor was the role played by the Campaign for Primary Accountability, which showered the district with $ 211,500 in TV and radio ads, robo-calls, and mailers in the last three weeks, slamming Mr. Manzullo for voting for spending proposals backed by Democrats.

The PAC is a small collection of about a dozen individuals, almost all of them conservative, Republican, Texan, or all three of the above. They helped unseat GOP incumbent Rep. Jean Schmidt of Ohio on super Tuesday, and since then, have made an impact in several other primaries in both parties.

* Nobody predicted this margin

Democratic U.S. Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr. coasted to a big win against long-time foe Debbie Halvorson, a former congresswoman.

In the 2nd Congressional District contest, Jackson had 71.2 percent of the vote to Debbie Halvorson’s 28.8 percent with 99 percent of the unofficial vote counted.

That’s just jaw-dropping, if you ask me. Halvorson could very well be finished in this business. She has, for far too long, engaged in a war with Jackson over the third regional airport location. She demanded to be appointed Illinois Secretary of Transportation, but she was refused and then she turned down other cabinet positions to run against Jackson in an almost surely no-win race.

Sometimes, I really don’t understand people.

* Breakdown

Halvorson pulled in 2,686 votes in Will County to Jackson’s 1,709, and in Kankakee County, Halvorson brought in 2,395 to Jackson’s 1,182. Will County and Kankakee-area officials have never taken kindly to Jackson’s advocacy for a south suburban airport.

In Cook County, Jackson pulled in 31,847 votes to Halvorson’s 11,049. In the city of Chicago, Jackson posted 19,700 to Halvorson’s 5,721.

* Nor this one

In the 8th, former Assistant Secretary of Veterans Affairs Tammy Duckworth handily beat Raja Krishnamoorthi 67 percent to 33 percent.

“I am so proud to be standing here in front of you, ready to bring back common sense and practical solutions to Washington because that’s what the residents of the 8th district need. That’s what they deserve,” Duckworth told supporters in Homewood.

Duckworth goes on to compete against Joe Walsh.

Most of us figured she’d win big, but 67 percent is pretty darned huge for such a hotly contested primary.

Have at it.

- Posted by Rich Miller        


13 Comments
  1. - Shore - Wednesday, Mar 21, 12 @ 11:30 am:

    My first thought from last night is that after a lot of political turmoil over the last 4 cycles driven in part by the iraq war failure and the troubled economy we’re starting to return to politics as normal. People just aren’t as pissed anymore and willing to go against the grain. Romney won, moveon was beaten back in the north suburbs, duckworth and jackson cruised, plummer won. Perhaps I am wrong, but that was my big takeaway.


  2. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Mar 21, 12 @ 11:33 am:

    ===* Nobody predicted this margin… ===

    I did! …lol

    I got MORE than a few wrong too, but I said 70-30 J-Trips …

    (keeping it light, Rich, j/k)


  3. - so.... - Wednesday, Mar 21, 12 @ 11:39 am:

    With regard to Halvorson, that crushing defeat couldn’t have happened to a more deserving person.


  4. - wordslinger - Wednesday, Mar 21, 12 @ 11:40 am:

    Judging by turnout, apathy was running rampant. That’ll mess up your polls.


  5. - Cheryl44 - Wednesday, Mar 21, 12 @ 11:41 am:

    I’m not at all surprised about the Halvorson margin. I am surprised at the Duckworth/Krishnamoorthi margin–I would have had a problem choosing between the two of them if I lived in that district.


  6. - Bill - Wednesday, Mar 21, 12 @ 11:43 am:

    The polls were pretty accurate early in the Duckworth race. They had her up by 35-40. This race was hotly contested only in Raja’s mind. My advice to him stays the same. Start out trying for state rep or county board. Leave statewide and federal to the pros for now. Work your way up. Learn as you go.


  7. - clark st. - Wednesday, Mar 21, 12 @ 11:53 am:

    ” My advice to him stays the same. Start out trying for state rep or county board. Leave statewide and federal to the pros for now. Work your way up. Learn as you go.”

    Agreed. I’ll never understand why he insisted on staying in this primary after Tammy got in. Sometimes working hard against all odds crosses the line into stubbornness. I think that’s what happened here.


  8. - Glory Days - Wednesday, Mar 21, 12 @ 12:28 pm:

    I’d want my money back if I were the PCCC and MoveOn; I’d be even more upset if I contributed to Ilya based on that poll. Heck, even the campaign put out a press release yesterday that had Sheyman looking past Schneider and onto Dold.

    If you apply the 45-27% Sheyman/Schneider poll to the election, the erroneous poll overestimated Sheyman’s tally by 2100 votes and underestimated Schneider’s by over 6500 votes. Wow. Just ridiculous.


  9. - Ace Matson - Wednesday, Mar 21, 12 @ 12:40 pm:

    Sheyman is to the Dems what Santorum is to the GOP: a fanatical true believer who is unelectable in the fall before a centrist electorate.


  10. - Anonymous - Wednesday, Mar 21, 12 @ 1:21 pm:

    Duckworth won big and all the best to her, but that’s a paltry number of votes (25-26,000 total) for a high-profile primary. Looks like she’ll need a lot of help and Obama’s coattails to be competitive against Walsh.


  11. - Scott Cisek - Wednesday, Mar 21, 12 @ 3:20 pm:

    If Ilya Sheyman’s “progressive” supporters in the city of Chicago had not wasted so much time, effort, and treasure trying to take out Toni Berrios, a pro-choice, pro LGBT progressive Latina, with one of their rich white college buddies from out of town, Sheyman might have been able to pull it off. As a big progressive myself, watching the “organized professional left” makes me think of Voltaire’s comment on the Holy Roman Empire. They are neither organized, nor professional, nor supportive of leftys outside of their clique. Sad.


  12. - Retired Non-Union Guy - Wednesday, Mar 21, 12 @ 3:28 pm:

    Some of us are just refusing to talk to the pollsters and robo-callers … or if we do, we lie outrageously …


  13. - mark walker - Wednesday, Mar 21, 12 @ 3:45 pm:

    Even in the 8th and 10th, turnout was very light. Apathy was the clear winner in this primary, for both sides. Hard to say what that means.


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


* Run away! Run away!
* Rauner complains that Quinn "stole" his accomplishment
* Two colleagues, two different takes on a reporter's resignation
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Fundraising updates
* Rauner with 2-1 money lead over Quinn
* Waukegan school strike finally ends
* Today's must-read
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Supplement to today’s edition: Crosstabs, cable TV buys, mail, etc.
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today's edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)
* Good morning!
* Yesterday's blog posts

Support CapitolFax.com
Visit our advertisers...

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............


Search This Blog...

Search the 98th General Assembly By Bill Number
(example: HB0001)

Search the 98th General Assembly By Keyword

          
        * Can HERE Maps compete with the likes of Google?
        * Boulder Dash 30th Anniversary game for Android introduced
        * Nexus 6 Play Store stock shortages a consequence of carrier involvement?
        * Nexus 6 sells out in minutes, DROID Turbo goes ballistic, Microsoft Band sneaks out early | Pocketnow Weekly 120
        * Flipboard 3.0 aims for personalization with 30,000 topics
        * Apple CEO Tim Cook speaks out: ‘I’m proud to be gay’
        * Lenovo completes Motorola acquisition

        * T-Mobile has the least expensive monthly plan for Samsung’s 3G-equipped Gear S smartwatch
        * Google Play Books’ new reading mode lets you browse and skim nonfiction ebooks faster
        * This App Uses Your Neighbors’ Phones to Find Your Lost Pet
        * Five Fear Mongering Myths That Are True (But Overblown)
        * Task-master app Any.do goes premium with collaboration features
        * Identify and Avoid "Ah, Screw It" Moments to Form Better Habits
        * What’s wrong with automatically scanning Twitter for suicidal tweets?

        * The offseason begins with a new Chicago manager and old arguments
        * World Series Game 7: Notes and discussion
        * Guillen, White Sox look back on '05 championship
        * White Sox offseason plan roundup: Designated hitter
        * Fall Stars Game filled to brim with talent
        * World Series Game 6: Notes and discussion
        * Thomas proud with Big Hurt Brewhouse set to open


        Main Menu
        Home
        Illinois
        YouTube
        Pundit rankings
        Obama
        Subscriber Content
        Durbin
        Burris
        Blagojevich Trial
        Advertising
        Updated Posts
        Polls

        Archives
        October 2014
        September 2014
        August 2014
        July 2014
        June 2014
        May 2014
        April 2014
        March 2014
        February 2014
        January 2014
        December 2013
        November 2013
        October 2013
        September 2013
        August 2013
        July 2013
        June 2013
        May 2013
        April 2013
        March 2013
        February 2013
        January 2013
        December 2012
        November 2012
        October 2012
        September 2012
        August 2012
        July 2012
        June 2012
        May 2012
        April 2012
        March 2012
        February 2012
        January 2012
        December 2011
        November 2011
        October 2011
        September 2011
        August 2011
        July 2011
        June 2011
        May 2011
        April 2011
        March 2011
        February 2011
        January 2011
        December 2010
        November 2010
        October 2010
        September 2010
        August 2010
        July 2010
        June 2010
        May 2010
        April 2010
        March 2010
        February 2010
        January 2010
        December 2009
        November 2009
        October 2009
        September 2009
        August 2009
        July 2009
        June 2009
        May 2009
        April 2009
        March 2009
        February 2009
        January 2009
        December 2008
        November 2008
        October 2008
        September 2008
        August 2008
        July 2008
        June 2008
        May 2008
        April 2008
        March 2008
        February 2008
        January 2008
        December 2007
        November 2007
        October 2007
        September 2007
        August 2007
        July 2007
        June 2007
        May 2007
        April 2007
        March 2007
        February 2007
        January 2007
        December 2006
        November 2006
        October 2006
        September 2006
        August 2006
        July 2006
        June 2006
        May 2006
        April 2006
        March 2006
        February 2006
        January 2006
        December 2005
        April 2005
        March 2005
        February 2005
        January 2005
        December 2004
        November 2004
        October 2004

        Blog*Spot Archives
        November 2005
        October 2005
        September 2005
        August 2005
        July 2005
        June 2005
        May 2005

        Syndication

        RSS Feed 2.0
        Comments RSS 2.0
        WordPress

        Loading


        * Halloween! Visit Logan Square's Dr. Frankenstein..
        * State retirees' coverage finally a local option.....
        * Wayne's Words: Campaign season can't end too soon..
        * DCCC Head, Rep. Steve Israel: ‘We’re In Trench .....
        * Waukegan schools, teachers reach tentative deal..
        * Does Former Tampa Bay Rays Manager Joe Maddon H.....
        * Cronus Fertilizers Plans To Build $1.4 Billion .....
        * Haven't voted yet? Here's all you need to know..
        * Cronus Fertilizers to build CSX-served plant in.....


        * Inmate ordered freed in landmark Illinois case
        * Dedication set at memorial of 1994 plane crash
        * Illinois' US Senate candidates spar in last debate
        * Candidates spar in final debate US Senate debate
        * Chicago mayoral candidate says he can raise $3M
        * Judge denies ex-representative new bribery trial
        * Chicago pol investigated in prizes-for-votes plan
        * Restructuring to close 9 Chicago Catholic schools
        * Grocery chain sues Clorox for price discrimination
        * Lawyer: Rap reference in complaint misleading

        * Judge denies ex-representative new bribery trial
        * Libertarian candidate for governor gets union cash
        * Illinois Supreme Court justice faces opposition
        * Quinn pledges $1.3M for 3-state intermodal port
        * Vallas: Rauner ‘doesn’t get it’ on minimum wage
        * Acquiring first seeds a dilemma for medical marijuana growers
        * Election 2014: Background on the big races, endorsements, videos
        * Medical pot dilemma: Where to get the first seeds?
        * Vallas: Rauner “doesn’t get it” on minimum wage
        * Ex-state lawmaker could change plea in child porn case

        * Apple CEO: 'I'm proud to be gay'
        * Is this the cheapest price yet for college textbooks?
        * 10 Things to Do
        * Classy in the classroom
        * Allstate profit more than doubles


        * Chicago bead merchant Ronnie Klein, whose Loop business drew stars, dead at 65
        * Chicago bead merchant Ronnie Klein, whose Loop business drew stars, dead at 65
        * Durbin, Oberweis square off for final time
        * Refund those unfair yellow-light tickets
        * Sad day  when  Catholic  schools  close
        * Let’s not oversell CTA terrorist screenings
        * Let’s not oveRsell CTA terrorist screenings
        * Tourism biz should be more transparent
        * Emanuel: ‘World is different now,’ defends CTA random bag checks
        * Schneider, Dold fighting for the Jewish vote in 10th District: Sweet


        * Lake County Jail guards indicted in inmate's death
        * Man charged in downtown convenience store robberies
        * Police shoot man in Back of the Yards
        * Waukegan school district, teachers announce tentative contract
        * Trauma center protesters target U. of C. capital campaign
        * U of C: No deal with nurses by Friday; union eyes strike vote
        * Teen shot in Marquette Park
        * Durbin touts record; Oberweis blasts 'political speak'
        * In video, mother tells how she wrapped newborn in plastic, put him in trash
        * Cops: Elgin man charged with murder in park stabbing


        * As Infrastructure Crumbles, Trillions Of Gallons Of Water Lost
        * Authorities: Springfield Woman's BAC Three Times The Legal Limit
        * 2014 Election Coverage: Citizens, here's your homework!
        * Aldermen skip chance to ask about city’s handling of police commander
        * Immigrant Rights Groups: Demand Oustrips Slots For Driver's Licenses
        * U-S Senate Candidates Differ On Ebola Response And More
        * Listen to State Week - October 24, 2014
        * A Look At Amazon's Move To Illinois
        * Bedrock 66: Charlie Parr Plays Springfield Friday
        * What's New With The Sangamon Valley Youth Symphony? Quite A Lot


        * Eugene Robinson: Ben Bradlee and the whole story
        * George Will: In Georgia, a capitalist struggles
        * Richard Dye and Richard Winkel Jr: Illinois’ fiscal situation is worse than you know or candidates will admit
        * Steve Herr: Benedictine in the administrative age
        * Quote of the Day: Thursday, Oct. 30
        * On Lincoln’s Side: A Just Pardon
        * Bernard Schoenburg: Bell accuses Scherer of ‘illegally’ taking tax break while he got same exemption
        * Judge denies ex-representative new bribery trial
        * Bill Edley: Will history repeat itself in the 17th?
        * Michael Gerson: A matter of ends


        * Daily Digest 10/30/14
        * Committee discusses the arts in downtown
        * Cross campaigns for balanced budget in B-N stop
        * "Ouija" Reveals Nothing New
        * Alumni: SIU is great; downtown is ho-hum
        * Take a break at Murphysboro's Smysor Plaza
        * Illini headed to Springfield?
        * Illini headed to Springfield
        * Daily business briefing: Stimulus ends, dollar strengthens
        * Part of Moline's 15th Street closed today


        * Apple CEO Tim Cook: ‘I'm proud to be gay'
        * Ebola: Danger in Sierra Leone, progress in Liberia
        * Viral video documents New York street harassment
        * Peshmerga troops start entering Syrian border town
        * Senate control could turn on 2 independents' moves

        * Patrick Cannon defense strategy rare but n...
        * Feds fine Jesse Jackson Jr.'s campaign com...
        * Ex-Congressman Jesse Jackson Jr. faces sen...
        * Representative Jan Schakowsky Sends Letter...
        * Rep. candidate pushes to uphold marriage b...
        * Reps. Schakowsky and Waxman Introduce Bill...
        * Statement by Representative Jan Schakowsky...
        * U.S. House Passes Resolution Condemning An...
        * FAA Rejects Call For New O'Hare Noise Stud...
        * Representatives Quigley, Duckworth, Schako...

        * Durbin, Oberweis discuss NFL, space travel......
        * Durbin, Oberweis discuss NFL, space travel......
        * DCCC Head, Rep. Steve Israel: ‘We’re In Tr......
        * DCCC Head, Rep. Steve Israel: ‘We’re In Tr......
        * Haven't voted yet? Here's all you need to ......

        * Senator Sharing Career Story At Triton...
        * Sen. Mark Kirk to talk with Triton College......
        * The “Democrats running from Obama” story i......
        * If Republicans Win the Senate, GOP Faction......

        * Liberal Congressmen to keynote NAACP banquet in Peoria
        * Chicago to host US-China agriculture and trade meeting
        * Kirkwood: A Lesbian Mayor’s Lavender Fatwa on Pastors
        * Where's Weyermuller? Oberweis vs Durbin Debate
        * Durbin and Oberweis close campaign on WTTW's Chicago Tonight
        * RNC says "Get Rid of Obamacare - Vote Republican" [video]
        * Durbin, Oberweis To Square Off At WTTW Candidate Forum Tonight
        * Tensions Flare At Waukegan School Board Meeting (UPDATED)
        * Chicago Housing Activists Call On Emanuel To Support 'Keep The Promise' Ordinance
        * Chicago Housing Initiative Protest


        * Quinn to celebrate Rauner’s UI Labs accomplishment
        * Another Democrat Runs Away From Pat Quinn
        * Quinn on buying votes with taxpayer money: “Is that a crime?”
        * Editorial: Ebola politics and health practices
        * Governor Pat Quinn Directs State Education Chief to Help Reach Resolution in Waukegan Local Teachers' Strike




            Hosted by MCS SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax Advertise Here Mobile Version Contact Rich Miller