SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
CapitolFax.com
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
Some polls either got it backwards or completely missed the margins

Wednesday, Mar 21, 2012

* Democrat Ilya Sheyman’s loss to Brad Schneider in the 10th Congressional District was yet another big surprise last night. Politico’s take

[Sheyman’s] loss is a crushing blow to the organized professional left, which poured substantial resources into the primary, making it a national priority for the movement.

A poll by Public Policy Polling last week showed Sheyman with a double-digit lead, so the margin is one of most stunning outcomes of the night.

Yes, it is. And you can bet that the DCC is breathing a little easier today. Sheyman would’ve probably been too far to the left to win the moderate, ticket-splitting 10th CD against freshman Republican Bob Dold. Some analysis from the NRCC…

Dold’s challenger Brad Schneider, comes off a bruising Democrat primary where he didn’t break 50% over a 25-year-old. Endorsed by Nancy Pelosi, Schneider’s support for her national energy tax won’t bode well for Illinois families who are already paying record-high gas prices. During his primary, Schneider said that he wouldn’t join the Blue Dog Coalition, signaling that he will be another partisan rubber-stamp in Congress. In addition, Schneider is going to have a lot of ground to make up against Bob Dold’s fundraising prowess and retail campaign skills. Dold has a cash advantage of over $1 million compared to Schneider, a significant gap in what is sure to be a costly race.

* The polls weren’t off everywhere, but as I told you yesterday, Republican Congressman Adam Kinzinger’s last tracker had him up by just three points over GOP Congressman Don Manzullo. The Kinzinger campaign was collectively biting its nails even after the AP had declared he’d won. But with 99 percent reporting, Kinzinger soundly defeated Manzullo 56-44.

KInzinger had a superior field operation and he’s a telegenic candidate. He also won the new part of the district

Both performed strongly in the parts of the district they’d previously represented, but Kinzinger won over the new part of the district by a solid margin.

* Tipping point?

TBut another key factor was the role played by the Campaign for Primary Accountability, which showered the district with $ 211,500 in TV and radio ads, robo-calls, and mailers in the last three weeks, slamming Mr. Manzullo for voting for spending proposals backed by Democrats.

The PAC is a small collection of about a dozen individuals, almost all of them conservative, Republican, Texan, or all three of the above. They helped unseat GOP incumbent Rep. Jean Schmidt of Ohio on super Tuesday, and since then, have made an impact in several other primaries in both parties.

* Nobody predicted this margin

Democratic U.S. Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr. coasted to a big win against long-time foe Debbie Halvorson, a former congresswoman.

In the 2nd Congressional District contest, Jackson had 71.2 percent of the vote to Debbie Halvorson’s 28.8 percent with 99 percent of the unofficial vote counted.

That’s just jaw-dropping, if you ask me. Halvorson could very well be finished in this business. She has, for far too long, engaged in a war with Jackson over the third regional airport location. She demanded to be appointed Illinois Secretary of Transportation, but she was refused and then she turned down other cabinet positions to run against Jackson in an almost surely no-win race.

Sometimes, I really don’t understand people.

* Breakdown

Halvorson pulled in 2,686 votes in Will County to Jackson’s 1,709, and in Kankakee County, Halvorson brought in 2,395 to Jackson’s 1,182. Will County and Kankakee-area officials have never taken kindly to Jackson’s advocacy for a south suburban airport.

In Cook County, Jackson pulled in 31,847 votes to Halvorson’s 11,049. In the city of Chicago, Jackson posted 19,700 to Halvorson’s 5,721.

* Nor this one

In the 8th, former Assistant Secretary of Veterans Affairs Tammy Duckworth handily beat Raja Krishnamoorthi 67 percent to 33 percent.

“I am so proud to be standing here in front of you, ready to bring back common sense and practical solutions to Washington because that’s what the residents of the 8th district need. That’s what they deserve,” Duckworth told supporters in Homewood.

Duckworth goes on to compete against Joe Walsh.

Most of us figured she’d win big, but 67 percent is pretty darned huge for such a hotly contested primary.

Have at it.

- Posted by Rich Miller        


13 Comments
  1. - Shore - Wednesday, Mar 21, 12 @ 11:30 am:

    My first thought from last night is that after a lot of political turmoil over the last 4 cycles driven in part by the iraq war failure and the troubled economy we’re starting to return to politics as normal. People just aren’t as pissed anymore and willing to go against the grain. Romney won, moveon was beaten back in the north suburbs, duckworth and jackson cruised, plummer won. Perhaps I am wrong, but that was my big takeaway.


  2. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Mar 21, 12 @ 11:33 am:

    ===* Nobody predicted this margin… ===

    I did! …lol

    I got MORE than a few wrong too, but I said 70-30 J-Trips …

    (keeping it light, Rich, j/k)


  3. - so.... - Wednesday, Mar 21, 12 @ 11:39 am:

    With regard to Halvorson, that crushing defeat couldn’t have happened to a more deserving person.


  4. - wordslinger - Wednesday, Mar 21, 12 @ 11:40 am:

    Judging by turnout, apathy was running rampant. That’ll mess up your polls.


  5. - Cheryl44 - Wednesday, Mar 21, 12 @ 11:41 am:

    I’m not at all surprised about the Halvorson margin. I am surprised at the Duckworth/Krishnamoorthi margin–I would have had a problem choosing between the two of them if I lived in that district.


  6. - Bill - Wednesday, Mar 21, 12 @ 11:43 am:

    The polls were pretty accurate early in the Duckworth race. They had her up by 35-40. This race was hotly contested only in Raja’s mind. My advice to him stays the same. Start out trying for state rep or county board. Leave statewide and federal to the pros for now. Work your way up. Learn as you go.


  7. - clark st. - Wednesday, Mar 21, 12 @ 11:53 am:

    ” My advice to him stays the same. Start out trying for state rep or county board. Leave statewide and federal to the pros for now. Work your way up. Learn as you go.”

    Agreed. I’ll never understand why he insisted on staying in this primary after Tammy got in. Sometimes working hard against all odds crosses the line into stubbornness. I think that’s what happened here.


  8. - Glory Days - Wednesday, Mar 21, 12 @ 12:28 pm:

    I’d want my money back if I were the PCCC and MoveOn; I’d be even more upset if I contributed to Ilya based on that poll. Heck, even the campaign put out a press release yesterday that had Sheyman looking past Schneider and onto Dold.

    If you apply the 45-27% Sheyman/Schneider poll to the election, the erroneous poll overestimated Sheyman’s tally by 2100 votes and underestimated Schneider’s by over 6500 votes. Wow. Just ridiculous.


  9. - Ace Matson - Wednesday, Mar 21, 12 @ 12:40 pm:

    Sheyman is to the Dems what Santorum is to the GOP: a fanatical true believer who is unelectable in the fall before a centrist electorate.


  10. - Anonymous - Wednesday, Mar 21, 12 @ 1:21 pm:

    Duckworth won big and all the best to her, but that’s a paltry number of votes (25-26,000 total) for a high-profile primary. Looks like she’ll need a lot of help and Obama’s coattails to be competitive against Walsh.


  11. - Scott Cisek - Wednesday, Mar 21, 12 @ 3:20 pm:

    If Ilya Sheyman’s “progressive” supporters in the city of Chicago had not wasted so much time, effort, and treasure trying to take out Toni Berrios, a pro-choice, pro LGBT progressive Latina, with one of their rich white college buddies from out of town, Sheyman might have been able to pull it off. As a big progressive myself, watching the “organized professional left” makes me think of Voltaire’s comment on the Holy Roman Empire. They are neither organized, nor professional, nor supportive of leftys outside of their clique. Sad.


  12. - Retired Non-Union Guy - Wednesday, Mar 21, 12 @ 3:28 pm:

    Some of us are just refusing to talk to the pollsters and robo-callers … or if we do, we lie outrageously …


  13. - mark walker - Wednesday, Mar 21, 12 @ 3:45 pm:

    Even in the 8th and 10th, turnout was very light. Apathy was the clear winner in this primary, for both sides. Hard to say what that means.


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


* Adding insult to injury in higher ed
* Question of the day
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Fundraiser list
* Congresscritters who draw state pensions
* *** UPDATED x1 - ISP responds *** The Mendoza car saga continues, including a Rauner twist
* It's just a bill
* *** UPDATED x3 - Rauner response - 81 percent vote to authorize strike *** AFSCME strike vote authorization result announcement
* *** UPDATED x1 - Purvis responds *** Madigan forms another education funding task force
* Can Rauner's 25 percent prisoner reduction goal be met?
* Fisking Rauner
* *** UPDATED x1 - Backpedal begins *** Pritzker urges unusual "protest"
* Rauner dodges reporters
* *** LIVE *** House session coverage
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today's edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)
* Yesterday's stories

Support CapitolFax.com
Visit our advertisers...

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............
<


Loading


* Madigan forms Illinois House panel to address s.....
* Madigan forms Illinois House panel to address s.....


* Trump puts moderate GOP governors in awkward spot
* Man convicted in 2013 slaying of mother outside church
* Officer won't face charges in fatal shooting during fight
* Wheaton's Cantigny Park, museums undergoing renovation
* The Latest: 46 protesters arrested while police clear camp
* Illinois union OKs strike over Rauner contract dispute
* University suspends fraternity after allegations of hazing
* Madigan forms Illinois House panel to address school funding
* Ex-US Rep. Jackson gets about $138,400 in annual benefits
* Storm system that hit California moving into the Midwest

* Economic stakes high for Springfield in labor showdown
* AFSCME authorizes strike, but still wants to bargain with Rauner
* AFSCME members authorize leaders to call strike
* Madigan forms Illinois House panel to address school funding
* Ex-U.S. Rep. Jackson gets about $138,400 in annual benefits
* AFSCME members authorize leaders to call state employee strike
* AFSCME will announce results of strike-authorization vote Thursday
* Hastert victim again argues for remainder of hush money
* Senate urged to leave state's PE requirements alone
* Luciano: State lawmakers fiddling while Illinois burns

* Why this Chicago hospital is doubling down on breastfeeding
* Sears cuts 130 corporate jobs


* Fire wreaks $150K in damage to Lake Forest home
* Picture this: White Sox photo day
* Man charged with messaging girl about sex, traveling to meet her
* New block of tickets for ‘Hamilton’ Chicago on sale Feb. 28
* Dear Abby: I’m falsely blamed for fiancee’s divorce
* Georgia Nicols horoscopes for Feb. 24, 2017
* 2 children among 4 injured in Marquette Park crash
* Strange, anxious winter ‘lit a fire’ in Cub bullpen hopeful
* White House adviser asked FBI to dispute Russia reports
* Patrick Kane’s hat trick leads Hawks to eighth win in nine games


* White House chief of staff Reince Priebus asked FBI to dispute Russia reports
* Dakota Access oil pipeline camp cleared of protesters; dozens arrested
* Alcohol-related death of Gurnee student at Miami University ruled an accident
* New block of 'Hamilton' tickets on sale Tuesday
* White Sox's Carson Fulmer recovers from being 'kicked around' in 2016
* Patrick Kane notches third career regular-season hat trick in win over Coyotes
* Blackhawks keep rolling with 6-3 victory over Coyotes
* Kim Jong Un's brother was killed by banned chemical nerve agent, police say
* Would be nice if 'quotable' Jerry Reinsdorf would talk about White Sox
* Bulls keep Jimmy Butler for now, trade Taj Gibson and Doug McDermott to Thunder


» Experts: Promotion Of Cop With 90 Misconduct Complaints Raises ‘Red Flags’
» AFSCME Members Authorize Potential Strike
» Palatine Reacts To Trump's Move To Rescind Transgender Student Guidance
» Illinois Union OKs Strike Over Rauner Contract Dispute
» Fear Heightened Among Immigrant Workers In Chicago Area
» Illinois Attorney General Convenes Summit On Trump Orders
» Chicago Schools Take A Stand On Immigration Enforcement
» After Budget Proposal, Governor Goes Quiet
» Illinois Issues: The Great Pension Chasm
» 16 Latino Leaders Resign From Chicago Public Schools Advisory Panel


* Economic stakes high for Springfield in labor showdown
* AFSCME authorizes strike, but still wants to bargain with Rauner
* Thumbs Down: To attempt to reinstate Legislative Scholarship program
* Ralph Martire: More ambiguity than Illinois can afford
* George Will: America’s predictable pension crisis
* Eugene Robinson: Obamacare has staying power
* AFSCME members authorize leaders to call strike
* Madigan forms Illinois House panel to address school funding
* Ex-U.S. Rep. Jackson gets about $138,400 in annual benefits
* AFSCME members authorize leaders to call state employee strike


* Police Beat
* Warm weather allows farmers to work fields
* March/caravan to let people express themselves about Decatur
* Madeline Rancilio
* Linda Hernandez
* Bernice Laferne Martin
* Patrick Conaughty
* Donald Byrley
* Charles 'Charley' Speck
* Wayne Brock


* Kane's hat trick leads Blackhawks past Coyotes 6-3
* Irving, James lead Cavaliers past Knicks, 119-104
* Rangers outlast Maple Leafs for 2-1 win in shootout
* A'ja Wilson helps No. 7 South Carolina beat Texas A&M 80-64
* Images: Benet Academy vs. Bolingbrook, girls basketball

* US Congressman tours new Aurora Specialty ...
* Hultgren guides STEM scholars through pres...
* Group upset with Trump wants Town Hall mee...
* Rep. Hultgren: Illinois Economy Just Keeps...
* US Representative Randy Hultgren visits ne...
* Illinois Congressmen Surprised At Speaker ...
* Rep. Hultgren stands up for ACA repeal - C...
* Hultgren criticizes immigration ban, Roska...
* Majority of IL Congressional Delegation Op...
* US Congressman tours new Aurora Specialty ...

* Durbin on target about the location and ca......

* GW: Illinois Sen. Tammy Duckworth to Speak......

* “The Driver’s Side” – News From The Motorist’s Perspective
* Impeach Trump? It won’t be for any reason we, the people, approve of!
* Former Obama adviser David Plouffe fined for illegally lobbying Rahm on behalf of Uber, and other Chicago news
* Ruth Ratny, chronicler of Chicago's film industry, dies
* An Internet-free ‘bookbar’ in Lincoln Park has banned laptops in favor of books and conversation
* Right-wing Trumpnuts go bonkers over New Trier civil rights program.
* #LibertysPromise
* #TBT -- John Kinzie, Oldest Uptowner
* Kizuki Ramen & Izakaya is the dependably good bowl Wicker Park doesn’t need
* “Contracts, like hearts, are meant to be broken.” -Ray Kroc.


* Governor Bruce Rauner Honors Carnegie Hero From Buffalo Grove
* Governor Addresses State Board of Education to Emphasize Importance of Strong Accountability Standards
* Stars and Legends to Perform at 2017 Illinois State Fair - First Round of Grandstand Headliners Announced for Springfield Fair
* Earthquake Education Kiosk Unveiled at University Mall in Carbondale - IEMA, Central U.S. Earthquake Consortium project will help southern Illinois residents reduce damage, injuries from earthquakes
* Governor Takes Bill Action

  
* Apple reduces incidence of iPhone 6 and 6s shutdowns with iOS 10.2.1 stability improvements
* Sporty Huawei Watch 2 shows up in three colors, no rotating crown, and possibly, no NFC in tow
* Shine gives up on mobile network ad-block threats, wants to play nice
* Google Messenger now called Android Messages
* Specs for ‘standard’ Samsung Galaxy S8 revealed as extremely similar to S8+
* Apple Investigating iPhone 7 Plus Caught Melting on Video
* RCS, Google’s answer to iMessage, expands to 27 more carriers and OEMs

* Starter for Saturday's spring opener TBD
* White Sox Tilson hopes to return next week
* Improving Anderson a key piece to Sox rebuild
* White Sox to retire Buehrle's uniform No. 56
* Harris continues following Jackie's path
* White Sox to retire Buehrle's uniform No. 56
* Holland brings loose, fun personality to White Sox clubhouse


Main Menu
Home
Illinois
YouTube
Pundit rankings
Obama
Subscriber Content
Durbin
Burris
Blagojevich Trial
Advertising
Updated Posts
Polls

Archives
February 2017
January 2017
December 2016
November 2016
October 2016
September 2016
August 2016
July 2016
June 2016
May 2016
April 2016
March 2016
February 2016
January 2016
December 2015
November 2015
October 2015
September 2015
August 2015
July 2015
June 2015
May 2015
April 2015
March 2015
February 2015
January 2015
December 2014
November 2014
October 2014
September 2014
August 2014
July 2014
June 2014
May 2014
April 2014
March 2014
February 2014
January 2014
December 2013
November 2013
October 2013
September 2013
August 2013
July 2013
June 2013
May 2013
April 2013
March 2013
February 2013
January 2013
December 2012
November 2012
October 2012
September 2012
August 2012
July 2012
June 2012
May 2012
April 2012
March 2012
February 2012
January 2012
December 2011
November 2011
October 2011
September 2011
August 2011
July 2011
June 2011
May 2011
April 2011
March 2011
February 2011
January 2011
December 2010
November 2010
October 2010
September 2010
August 2010
July 2010
June 2010
May 2010
April 2010
March 2010
February 2010
January 2010
December 2009
November 2009
October 2009
September 2009
August 2009
July 2009
June 2009
May 2009
April 2009
March 2009
February 2009
January 2009
December 2008
November 2008
October 2008
September 2008
August 2008
July 2008
June 2008
May 2008
April 2008
March 2008
February 2008
January 2008
December 2007
November 2007
October 2007
September 2007
August 2007
July 2007
June 2007
May 2007
April 2007
March 2007
February 2007
January 2007
December 2006
November 2006
October 2006
September 2006
August 2006
July 2006
June 2006
May 2006
April 2006
March 2006
February 2006
January 2006
December 2005
April 2005
March 2005
February 2005
January 2005
December 2004
November 2004
October 2004

Blog*Spot Archives
November 2005
October 2005
September 2005
August 2005
July 2005
June 2005
May 2005

Syndication

RSS Feed 2.0
Comments RSS 2.0
WordPress




Hosted by MCS SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax Advertise Here Mobile Version Contact Rich Miller