SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
CapitolFax.com
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
National Journal ranks Illinois races

Wednesday, Jul 18, 2012

* From the National Journal

Three wave elections in a row have done plenty to scramble the House landscape. This year, it’s unlikely another wave will develop–at least any wave that could overwhelmingly benefit one party. Instead, we’re likely to see an anti-Washington backlash, one that could cost a number of members their jobs, even if neither side sees a big net increase.

* The National Journal looked at 75 US House districts that it deems the most likely to change hands. Here are the Illinois rankings

3. IL-08 (R, Rep. Joe Walsh): Walsh complained recently that Democratic nominee Tammy Duckworth, an Iraq war veteran and former Veterans Affairs official, uses her service as a way to duck political issues. She would have to address issues more if Walsh didn’t keep sticking his foot in his mouth. The seat gave President Obama more than 61 percent of the vote in 2008, and 45 percent of its residents are nonwhite. As one of Walsh’s colleagues might say, the cake is baked.

8. IL-10 (R, Rep. Robert Dold): Of all the Republican-held House seats, this one gave the greatest share of its 2008 presidential vote to Obama. But Democrats failed to capture it from Mark Kirk in several attempts last decade, and they couldn’t keep Dold from holding it for the GOP in 2010. Dold’s legitimate moderate streak (and a formidable war chest) gives him a glimmer of hope, but Democrats have a strong, moderate nominee in Brad Schneider. Schneider will hammer Dold all autumn for his two votes for the Ryan budget plan. Obama could win the district with 60 percent again, and it would be difficult for Dold to peel off a full sixth of Obama supporters from Schneider.

16. IL-17 (R, Rep. Bobby Schilling): Democrat Cheri Bustos is quickly raising cash in a district that, like nearly every other GOP-held seat in Illinois, got more Democratic after redistricting. The swing districts outside Chicago’s orbit aren’t quite as fertile ground for Democrats as the ones closer to the city, but Schilling is competing at a structural disadvantage.

17. IL-11 (R, Rep. Judy Biggert): Biggert is a moderate on social issues, and that helped her appeal across party lines against tough opposition in 2008. But Obama won 54 percent in that seat; he took 61 percent of the vote in the new seat. Obama probably won’t do as well this year, but that still makes it tough to figure out the math necessary for Biggert to beat well-funded ex-Rep. Bill Foster.

23. IL-12 (Open D, Rep. Jerry Costello retiring): Though the district voted for both John Kerry and Barack Obama for president, Southern Illinois is exactly the type of predominantly white, working-class place where Democrats have had serious trouble recently. Republicans think businessman Jason Plummer can wrestle the seat away for them. Democratic nominee Bill Enyart, who commanded the Illinois National Guard, joined the race just weeks ago after the Democratic primary winner dropped out for health reasons. Enyart seems like a great recruit so far, but he has a lot of money and name identification to make up in a hurry.

53. IL-13 (R, Rep. Tim Johnson): Republican nominee Rodney Davis has never appeared on the district’s ballot; GOP county chairs chose him to replace Johnson after the incumbent declined to run in the general after winning the primary. But Democratic nominee David Gill might have appeared before voters too many times. He lost to Johnson three times in the last decade, and a more Democratic district might not be enough to boost him over Davis this year.

Thoughts?

* A fundraising chart from Crain’s

* More

The only candidate to have a clear fundraising advantage is freshman Rep. Robert Dold.

The North Shore Republican had more than $2.1 million in the bank after hauling in $711,084 in the three months ended June 30, according to the latest campaign finance reports.

His Democratic opponent from Deerfield, management consultant Brad Schneider, raised almost as much in the quarter — $582,342 — but had only $567,623 in cash on hand after spending most of the $1.5 million he’s raised so far on a tough primary. […]

In the open downstate seat of retiring Rep. Tim Johnson, R-Urbana, Republican candidate Rodney Davis has outraised Democrat David Gill by almost 2-to-1, making it less likely to become one of the state’s hottest races.

…Adding… Oops. I forgot to make mention of the Tribune’s scathing editorial about Joe Walsh

Our “true heroes”? As opposed to what, exactly?

Walsh’s opponent is Democrat Tammy Duckworth, who flew combat missions in Iraq as a member of the Illinois Army National Guard. In 2004, Duckworth was piloting a Black Hawk helicopter when it was hit by a rocket-propelled grenade fired by insurgents. She guided the aircraft safely to the ground, then passed out from loss of blood. Her comrades dragged her from the wreckage, wrapped her in bandages and whisked her to safety. Duckworth, who lost both of her legs in the attack, was awarded the Purple Heart.

Those are facts.

A military website interviewed her a few weeks after the attack.

“I hope this is the worst thing that happens to anyone in the 106th during this deployment,” she said. “This is not so bad. There is always somebody worse off than you are. I’m just glad it was me and not one of my guys out there.”

Now what was that, Rep. Walsh, about true heroes?

- Posted by Rich Miller        


24 Comments
  1. - so.... - Wednesday, Jul 18, 12 @ 11:47 am:

    I wouldn’t write off Dold. He managed to beat a candidate with near universal name recognition in a district that should have gone Democratic years ago.

    With regard to IL-13, there is no way that seat is flipping. Davis is already out-raising Gill to a significant degree, and Gill is just way too liberal for that district.


  2. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Jul 18, 12 @ 11:50 am:

    Feeling better about Rodney Davis every day. The money just reinforces those feelings. Gill will have more hurdles than Davis, and in that district, the hurdles will be the difference.

    Walsh might be “done”, or as it was said above, “the cake is baked”. Very very tough road for Walsh, and he doesn’t seem to like to help himself, rather, Walsh likes to make it more difficult, and then blame everyone else for his difficulties. Time is also against Walsh, especially when you have to waste so much of his time cleaning up self-inflicted messes.

    Plummer should be OK. If Plummer comes off arrogant, and is still standoff-ish on the taxes, that elitism could come back to haunt him. Also, the perception that Plummer is a negative candidate, and always seems to go negative, that might turn off more people this time around. Plummer must have something positive out there to hang his hat on, or continuing the negative all the time, with all the negatives about himself, will bring more into focus Plummer’s negatives as Plummer tries to tighten the screws.

    Interesting read, Thanks, Rich.


  3. - ZC - Wednesday, Jul 18, 12 @ 11:51 am:

    We were discussing the possibility of a Tribune endorsement for Walsh the other day. I think the odds of that are sinking fast. Duckworth may well be the highest profile Democratic Tribune endorsement of the cycle.


  4. - Wensicia - Wednesday, Jul 18, 12 @ 12:10 pm:

    Dold is pushing hard on protecting women’s rights and access to health care. He’s also supporting public education. He knows he has to reach out to non-Republicans. His last flyer stated the following:

    “Based on his voting record and commitment to put people before politics and progress before partisanship, the “National Journal” recognizes Congressman Dold as one of the most ‘independent’ representatives in Congress.”

    Quite a different message from the last election.


  5. - CircularFiringSquad - Wednesday, Jul 18, 12 @ 12:11 pm:

    NJ forgot to factor in the impact of the Woodie Romney-Plummer’s tax return strategy. He will be sinking like a rock as that drags on.
    Daddy will drop another million and Woodie will back on the allowance again.
    Fire, Aim, Ready


  6. - just sayin' - Wednesday, Jul 18, 12 @ 12:21 pm:

    How sad would it be if the only Republican from that group to come out on top turns out to be Rodney Davis, the Pat Brady employee from the state gop who is easisly the least impressive of the 6 profiled.


  7. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Jul 18, 12 @ 12:23 pm:

    ===…who is easisly the least impressive of the 6 profiled.===

    You really want to go with “easily the least impressive” with ALL those …dunno about that.


  8. - just sayin' - Wednesday, Jul 18, 12 @ 12:30 pm:

    Yes.


  9. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Jul 18, 12 @ 12:34 pm:

    - just sayin’ -

    Plummer is more impressive than Davis?

    I know Jason would “gladly match (his) leadership and (his) executive experience up to most anybody’s.” but you would too?


  10. - Skeeter - Wednesday, Jul 18, 12 @ 12:48 pm:

    Plummer is ranked way too low. The Dems are going to have a heck of time holding that one. Other than Duckworth win, that’s the closest thing we have to a sure thing. It sure is depressing though.


  11. - Skeeter - Wednesday, Jul 18, 12 @ 12:51 pm:

    Biggert is ranked way too high. I like Foster, but Judy has been around for a long time and she’s generally liked. She’s not an extremist. I don’t see her losing.


  12. - Paul - Wednesday, Jul 18, 12 @ 1:38 pm:

    Do not count the amount of money that will be spent yet. There could be a lot of Super Pac and 504(c) money entering the fray late in the election season. When it is too late for the candidate to raise more money and respond.


  13. - VanillaMan - Wednesday, Jul 18, 12 @ 1:55 pm:

    NJ should have just reported, “no surprises”. I don’t see much change, except Walsh and Plummer passing one another on the road - one going and one coming. More 2010 than 2008.


  14. - Shore - Wednesday, Jul 18, 12 @ 2:32 pm:

    further proof of why brady is finished in republican politics.

    you left out the dccc and superpac spending that has been announced.


  15. - Oz - Wednesday, Jul 18, 12 @ 2:35 pm:

    It’s time we make all these political positions “at-will” employees. The election cycle is way to long. Like four years for the president and then they waste the first year doing nothing and the last year is all about “fun (sic)raising”!

    Better yet let’s just go to a straight democracy instead of representative democracy. We have the technology today to handle it..


  16. - Professor - Wednesday, Jul 18, 12 @ 2:44 pm:

    Tammy Duckworth came to my class when she was Illinois Director of Veterans Affairs, A male student who seemed annoyed with her position on the War asked if she was advocating the US just “cut and run”. She looked at him and answered, “I landed my plane with both legs gone. I don’t ever cut and run.” The student crawled under his chair. This is a lady of substance, quite a lady.


  17. - Kilroy - Wednesday, Jul 18, 12 @ 2:45 pm:

    The media and the professional election industry must be licking their chops at all that money….mmmmmmm…..


  18. - Yellow Dog Democrat - Wednesday, Jul 18, 12 @ 2:46 pm:

    @ZC -

    That quote from Duckworth is not uncommon (she herself has downplayed the mantle of hero consistently), although I’m glad it was included because its dated to long before she entered politics. It speaks tremendously to her character.


  19. - Yellow Dog Democrat - Wednesday, Jul 18, 12 @ 2:48 pm:

    BTW, I had to laugh at the reference to Plummer as a “businessman.”


  20. - Louis G. Atsaves - Wednesday, Jul 18, 12 @ 2:49 pm:

    If memory serves, Dan Seals was formally endorsed by Obama who then carpet bombed the 10th with radio ads with Obama speaking about Seals. Dold still won.

    Two of the best campaigners in recent history that I have run across are Dold and Walsh. Don’t write either one of them off just yet. Walsh running his mouth in a stream of consciousness type of way proved extremely popular among his followers. Too bad his new district is so heavily gerrymandered against him.


  21. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Jul 18, 12 @ 2:53 pm:

    ===BTW, I had to laugh at the reference to Plummer as a “businessman.”===

    Or whatever his Dad wants him to be that week …

    BTW, YDD, did you read the above about the Gill/Davis race … just asking …


  22. - Team Sleep - Wednesday, Jul 18, 12 @ 3:06 pm:

    Schock’s totals are simply eye-popping. If he isn’t trying to build up for a possible statewide run or pushing for a committee chairmanship, I would be, ahem, shocked. Sorry - had to go there.

    Dodd’s and Duckworth’s fundraising totals are impressive.


  23. - ArchPundit - Wednesday, Jul 18, 12 @ 7:21 pm:

    The Duckworth race is a snoozer in terms of outcomes, but a lot of fun to watch Walsh thinking he has a shot and shooting his mouth off.

    In the races other than 12 & 13, the demographics are the biggest part of the story–and that’s primarily what the National Journal is looking at. Candidates matter, but demographics matter more. 13 is done and will go R.

    12 is hard to decide–give Willy material for years or have an adult win.


  24. - Paul - Wednesday, Jul 18, 12 @ 8:45 pm:

    Team Sleep, Schock has an extremely safe district. When the 17th Congressional District was made more favorable for Democrats, they mad Schock’s 18th District solid red. Schock does not really have to spend much money, it ends up in his bank account.


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


* Good morning!
* Ginning up the base
* Yesterday's blog posts

Support CapitolFax.com
Visit our advertisers...

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............


Search This Blog...

Search the 98th General Assembly By Bill Number
(example: HB0001)

Search the 98th General Assembly By Keyword

          
        * Samsung Gear S coming to American mobile carriers
        * Two coasts, 10 days: Macworld’s thorough field test of Apple Pay
        * World’s narrowest bezel arrives in LG’s new smartphone LCD panel
        * Andy Rubin leaving Google to help new hardware tech startups
        * New tones for Lumia
        * Motorola DROID Turbo vs Moto X 2014 (Video)
        * Microsoft Band unboxing and first impressions (Video)

        * Norbert Finds and Verifies People's Email Addresses
        * Sony Has Shipped 3.3 Million PlayStation 4 Units In The Past 3 Months
        * Google Inbox Updated With “Highlights” Feature
        * Hungary’s Prime Minister Ditches Internet Tax Law
        * Gresso Regal Smartphone Runs Andorid
        * $200 Microsoft Band Smartwatch Hands On (video)
        * All of the Halloween Freebies and Deals You Can Get Today

        * White Sox offseason plan roundup: Third base
        * Minnie Miñoso belongs in the Hall of Fame
        * Development of young core in '15 can define Chicago's future
        * Abreu leads White Sox GIBBY hopefuls with five noms
        * Allen, Wills among new faces on Hall's Golden Era ballot
        * The offseason begins with a new Chicago manager and old arguments
        * World Series Game 7: Notes and discussion


        Main Menu
        Home
        Illinois
        YouTube
        Pundit rankings
        Obama
        Subscriber Content
        Durbin
        Burris
        Blagojevich Trial
        Advertising
        Updated Posts
        Polls

        Archives
        October 2014
        September 2014
        August 2014
        July 2014
        June 2014
        May 2014
        April 2014
        March 2014
        February 2014
        January 2014
        December 2013
        November 2013
        October 2013
        September 2013
        August 2013
        July 2013
        June 2013
        May 2013
        April 2013
        March 2013
        February 2013
        January 2013
        December 2012
        November 2012
        October 2012
        September 2012
        August 2012
        July 2012
        June 2012
        May 2012
        April 2012
        March 2012
        February 2012
        January 2012
        December 2011
        November 2011
        October 2011
        September 2011
        August 2011
        July 2011
        June 2011
        May 2011
        April 2011
        March 2011
        February 2011
        January 2011
        December 2010
        November 2010
        October 2010
        September 2010
        August 2010
        July 2010
        June 2010
        May 2010
        April 2010
        March 2010
        February 2010
        January 2010
        December 2009
        November 2009
        October 2009
        September 2009
        August 2009
        July 2009
        June 2009
        May 2009
        April 2009
        March 2009
        February 2009
        January 2009
        December 2008
        November 2008
        October 2008
        September 2008
        August 2008
        July 2008
        June 2008
        May 2008
        April 2008
        March 2008
        February 2008
        January 2008
        December 2007
        November 2007
        October 2007
        September 2007
        August 2007
        July 2007
        June 2007
        May 2007
        April 2007
        March 2007
        February 2007
        January 2007
        December 2006
        November 2006
        October 2006
        September 2006
        August 2006
        July 2006
        June 2006
        May 2006
        April 2006
        March 2006
        February 2006
        January 2006
        December 2005
        April 2005
        March 2005
        February 2005
        January 2005
        December 2004
        November 2004
        October 2004

        Blog*Spot Archives
        November 2005
        October 2005
        September 2005
        August 2005
        July 2005
        June 2005
        May 2005

        Syndication

        RSS Feed 2.0
        Comments RSS 2.0
        WordPress

        Loading


        * In Obama's home state, a tough fight to keep go.....
        * Moran: Mailboxes can exhale with end of electio.....
        * Why I'm voting for Pat Quinn - Chicago Tribune..
        * Illinois Dems dig deep to keep governor's office..


        * Illinois Dems dig deep to keep governor's office
        * A look at Ebola guidelines in some states
        * 3 die when train strikes SUV in southern Illinois
        * Illinois schools report has host of new features
        * 3 killed when train strikes SUV
        * Waukegan teachers approve contract ending strike
        * 2 killed, 8 injured in construction zone wreck
        * Suburban judge attacked by inmate in courtroom
        * Man charged in death of Rockford attorney in crash
        * Inmate freed in landmark Illinois case

        * Attorney general seeks clarifications from Topinka’s former nonprofit
        * Inmate freed from Jacksonville prison in landmark Illinois case
        * Cross opposes income tax hike extension
        * Gay marriage, abortion issues take back seat in governor’s race
        * Madigan’s office seeks clarifications from former Topinka nonprofit
        * Cross says no to income tax hike extension, sales tax on services
        * Gay marriage, abortion issues take backseat in governor’s race
        * Illinois inmate freed in landmark capital punishment case
        * Rauner says women will decide governor's race
        * Judge denies ex-representative new bribery trial

        * Illinois Lottery manager scratches off $20 million investment
        * Lake Shore Drive ramps by McCormick Place set for early 2015 construction
        * Groupon forecast falls short of estimates
        * Groupon mulls overseas options as forecast falls short
        * Groupon hires advisers top find partners for Asia businesses


        * Garcia: I'm a serious mayoral candidate, not just a protest vote
        * A higher standard of criminal justice
        * Ex-Northwestern doctor to pay $475K to settle fraud claims
        * Sad day  when  Catholic  schools  close
        * Chicago bead merchant Ronnie Klein, whose Loop business drew stars, dead at 65
        * Chicago bead merchant Ronnie Klein, whose Loop business drew stars, dead at 65
        * Durbin, Oberweis square off for final time
        * State’s attorney investigating alderman’s prize offer to voters
        * Face it: Animator has found a great way to pass time on his commute
        * Refund those unfair yellow-light tickets


        * Off-duty police officer beaten and robbed in the Loop
        * Alleged lieutenant of drug kingpin 'El Chapo' seeks minimum prison term
        * Installation begins on Wallenda's tightrope over Chicago River
        * Teen wounded in Morgan Park shooting, at least 3 others injured across city
        * Waukegan district, teachers come to terms after monthlong strike
        * Judge again orders Crystal Lake South bleachers to come down
        * Naperville high school cancels activities after bomb threat
        * Officials: Defendant in Maywood court attacked judge
        * Rauner, Quinn squabble over who deserves credit for digital lab


        * Prisoner Freed After Recanting Testimony "Angry"
        * The Choice Of Choice: Gov. Candidates On Abortion
        * Group Has A Goal Of Improving Access To Preschool In Macon County
        * Turn out for what? Will young voters make it to the polls, or stay home as usual?
        * As Infrastructure Crumbles, Trillions Of Gallons Of Water Lost
        * Authorities: Springfield Woman's BAC Three Times The Legal Limit
        * 2014 Election Coverage: Citizens, here's your homework!
        * Aldermen skip chance to ask about city’s handling of police commander
        * Immigrant Rights Groups: Demand Oustrips Slots For Driver's Licenses
        * U-S Senate Candidates Differ On Ebola Response And More


        * Esther Cepeda: Elizabeth Pena: Trailblazer on the big screen
        * Andy Shaw: Voter turnout instrumental to reform
        * Ty Fahner: What if the Court rejects pension reform?
        * Attorney general seeks clarifications from Topinka’s former nonprofit
        * Quote of the Day: Friday, Oct. 31
        * Inmate freed from Jacksonville prison in landmark Illinois case
        * Cross opposes income tax hike extension
        * Gay marriage, abortion issues take back seat in governor’s race
        * Illinois inmate freed in landmark capital punishment case
        * Rauner says women will decide governor's race


        * Schools report has host of new features
        * Sprinkler head activates at Bottenfield
        * Area Calendar 10/31/14
        * It's time to trick-or-treat
        * Election interview: Prue Runkle
        * Election interview: Dan Ditchfield
        * Top of the Morning, Oct. 31, 2014
        * Election preview: Unit 4 referendum, part two
        * The top Illinois haunts
        * Substance abuse fight stories shine


        * Improving DuPage scores show 'teaching math finally makes sense'
        * Lake County to announce street gang arrests today
        * Dawn Patrol: Cold Halloween weather coming; Neuqua Valley to reopen
        * Riopell: Voters flood polls before Tuesday
        * State officials want to shoot up to 130 deer in Kane County forest preserves

        * Patrick Cannon defense strategy rare but n...
        * Feds fine Jesse Jackson Jr.'s campaign com...
        * Ex-Congressman Jesse Jackson Jr. faces sen...
        * Representative Jan Schakowsky Sends Letter...
        * Rep. candidate pushes to uphold marriage b...
        * Reps. Schakowsky and Waxman Introduce Bill...
        * Statement by Representative Jan Schakowsky...
        * U.S. House Passes Resolution Condemning An...
        * FAA Rejects Call For New O'Hare Noise Stud...
        * Representatives Quigley, Duckworth, Schako...

        * Final Senate Debate...
        * Final Senate Debate...
        * Final Senate Debate...
        * Education Dept. cracks down on for-profit ......
        * Education Dept. cracks down on for-profit ......

        * How first lady, Rauner factor into their p......
        * ISIS Has More Land, Money, and Fighters Th......

        * Anatomy Of A Tribune Editorial
        * Local Book Notes: Dirty Wars
        * The Weekend Desk Report
        * Beachwood Photo Booth: Francisco Frankenstein
        * Trick Or Treat Safety Tips For Drivers & Pedestrians
        * The Week In Chicago Rock
        * Op-Ed: Google Car Gives The Blind More Independence While Saving Illinois Millions
        * Will Chuy be the new Karen Lewis?
        * Op-Ed: Google Car Could Give The Blind More Independence While Saving Illinois Millions
        * Poll: Downstate Could Go Either Way In Guv's Race


        * Editorial: Rauner best choice as governor to begin to reverse Illinois’ fortunes
        * Quinn to celebrate Rauner’s UI Labs accomplishment
        * Another Democrat Runs Away From Pat Quinn
        * Governor Pat Quinn Statement on Tentative Agreement to End Waukegan Teacher Strike, Return Students to Classrooms - State Education Chief Worked Overnight to Reach Common Ground, Students Heading Back to School on Monday
        * Governor Quinn Joins UI LABS to Break Ground on New Digital Manufacturing Hub - Digital Manufacturing and Design Innovation Institute Set to Open in 2015, Create Jobs




            Hosted by MCS SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax Advertise Here Mobile Version Contact Rich Miller