SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
*** UPDATED x1 *** Another poll shows tight race for second place

Wednesday, Jan 16, 2013

* Democratic 2nd Congressional District hopeful Robin Kelly shared her own poll today

Unlike state Sen. Toi Hutchinson’s poll, Kelly’s pollster only asked about the top seven candidates. Actually, they asked about eight candidates, but then David Miller dropped out and they used voters’ “second choice” responses to reallocate his support elsewhere.

The poll of 500 likely voters was conducted by GBA Strategies January 3-7 with a margin of error of +/- 4.4 percent.

Hutchinson’s poll had Halvorson at 16, Hutchinson at 12 and Kelly at 8. Kelly’s poll has the race for second place much closer. Hutchinson’s attempts to push Kelly out or dismiss her to contributors and influencers as an also-ran probably aren’t gonna work, at least for now.

* From the pollster

• Halvorson begins in the lead, but the race is wide open. Congresswoman Halvorson begins the campaign with 25 percent of the electorate in her corner, but her lead is soft. Senator Hutchinson (16 percent) and Kelly (15 percent) follow, with no other candidate getting more than 10 percent. Fifteen percent are purely undecided, but a full 65 percent of voters are either undecided or only softly supporting a candidate.

• Hutchinson and Halvorson share the same base. Both Debbie Halvorson and Toi Hutchinson start with their base of support coming from the same demographic and regional base, especially white voters and voters in the southern portion of the district.

• Kelly starts with a base of support in the suburbs. Robin Kelly currently leads all other candidates among several key groups, including African American women, African Americans in the suburbs and African Americans with a college degree. And Kelly’s support from these pivotal blocs grows during the survey.

• The NRA is extremely unpopular with this electorate. Just 17 percent of likely voters have a favorable impression of the NRA, with 63 percent saying they feel unfavorably towards the pro-gun organization. Kelly’s record of standing up to the NRA and her pledge to reduce gun violence resonates as one of the most powerful reasons to support her.

• Kelly has significant room to grow. Despite having lower name ID than Halvorson or Hutchinson, Kelly starts the race off statistically tied in second place. Once voters—especially voters in the city—hear more about Kelly and the leading candidates’ positions on preventing gun violence, the vote moves dramatically in her favor, pulling her ahead of both Halvorson and Hutchinson.

• Hutchinson/Halvorson’s growth limited by NRA ties. Both other leading candidates find their growth opportunities severely limited by their proud associations with the NRA and the ISRA. Nearly 7-in-10 voters (69 percent) oppose allowing concealed carry in this race. Voters have very serious concerns about Hutchinson’s and Halvorson’s positions on this critical issue.

There’s no doubt that Kelly believes the gun issue is her best path to victory here. She’s also raised more money than any other candidate so far (although not a huge amount more than Hutchinson is claiming).


*** UPDATE *** Speaking of guns…

Kelly Supports Obama Gun Control Initiatives, Calls Out Opponents
Only major candidate with a record of standing up to the NRA

RICHTON PARK, IL— Today, Robin Kelly, Democratic candidate for the Second Congressional District of Illinois, announced her support for the gun violence prevention proposals that President Obama and Vice-President Joe Biden announced this morning.

“I stand with President Obama’s plan to get the dangerous weapons that are killing our neighbors off of the streets,” Robin Kelly said. “The NRA has engaged in desperate smear campaign to stop him, including attacking President Obama’s daughters. We need more voices in Washington willing to stand up to NRA, instead of taking support from them.

“Unlike my opponents Debbie Halvorson and Toi Hutchinson, who both received support from the NRA, I got an F rating and frankly, I could not be more proud. I have the record and resolve to stand with President Obama, Mayor Emanuel, and Cook County Board President Toni Preckwinkle to get dangerous weapons out of our neighborhoods.”

Robin Kelly is the only candidate to have issued a five-point pledge to get assault weapons and high capacity magazines off the streets of Chicago and the Southland, as well as making sure that Illinois’ conceal and carry ban stays in effect. You can read her full pledge at

Robin Kelly is a former state representative, Chief of Staff to the Illinois State Treasurer and Chief Administrative Officer for Cook County under Toni Preckwinkle. But, most importantly, she’s a mother and a community activist who has dedicated her career to fighting for economic opportunity, domestic violence prevention and reasonable common sense gun control laws.

- Posted by Rich Miller        

  1. - VanillaMan - Wednesday, Jan 16, 13 @ 9:56 am:

    So Toi’s poll shows her as a winning candidate, and today Kelly’s shows her as a winner!


    But both agree that Former Congresswoman Halvorson in the lead.

    And that is the takeaway…

  2. - The Captain - Wednesday, Jan 16, 13 @ 10:05 am:

    A month ago I would have rather been Harris than anyone else in this race but he gave away his natural advantage, now I’d rather be Robin Kelly. She’s a PhD, has the top ballot spot, raised the most money, has the best record on the gun issue at the forefront of voters minds (other than the economy where there isn’t much difference to separate the candidates) and the opponents ahead of her appear to be bumping up against a ceiling. She’s in the catbird seat.

    The only downside for her is that normally you would expect Halvorson and Hutchinson to beat each other up since they’re competing for the same voters but since they both have the same record on guns they’re not going to do the dirty work for Kelly on that issue, she’ll have to spend the money to do that herself. But she has the money and you can do that with a comparative ad (as opposed to straight negative) and get the job done.

    Things are setting up well for her.

  3. - Six Degrees of Separation - Wednesday, Jan 16, 13 @ 10:09 am:

    Those 17% of NRA favorables (especially if they are strongly opinionated) could cut the other way in a race with this many candidates, too - just sayin’.

  4. - The Captain - Wednesday, Jan 16, 13 @ 10:14 am:

    Except that the two candidates with the best (almost identical) NRA record (Halvorson and Hutchinson) are both viable so no one candidate is going to take the 17% of the NRA vote as a monolithic bloc.

  5. - GA Watcher - Wednesday, Jan 16, 13 @ 10:47 am:

    It’s somewhat refreshing that the three top contenders in this race are women.

  6. - Carl Nyberg - Wednesday, Jan 16, 13 @ 10:49 am:

    I’m kinda surprised to see Halvorson poll so well.

    I voted for Halvorson in the primary based on listening to JJJ at IVI-IPO and talking to a member of Jackson’s staff.

    The stuff Jackson said was obviously untrue to anyone who has ridden Metra Electric. And Jackson’s staff member’s defense of Jackson made me more confident something was not right.

    But I’m not a lock for Halvorson in this race.

    I assume that many of the votes for Halvorson are like me: people who thought the bloom was off the rose with JJJ, but only had weak (or no) loyalties to Halvorson.

    This poll suggests Halvorson brings almost all her primary voters to this election as her base or that JJJ voters have flipped to Halvorson.

    Any JJJ voters that flipped to Halvorson seem likely to be soft enough that when they get more information they might flip again.

    Also, I have a hard time believing that only 15% are undecided. The poll that said 40% undecided feels closer to the truth.

  7. - Knifefighter - Wednesday, Jan 16, 13 @ 10:53 am:


    You’re right that obviously Halvorson is running away with this thing, but I wouldn’t say the Kelly poll shows her as the winning candidate. Like the other poll, it shows her in third. Unlike the other poll story, it doesn’t actually provide numbers about where opinion goes. Smells like a rat to me.

  8. - Carl Nyberg - Wednesday, Jan 16, 13 @ 11:10 am:

    Age at time of election:

    Joyce Washington–60-64
    Mel Reynolds–61
    Robin Kelly–almost 57
    Debbie Halvorson–55
    Anthony Beale–45
    Toi Hutchinson–almost 40
    Napoleon Harris–34

    Remember, it takes six to ten years to build the relations and seniority to get stuff done, although Halvorson would start with an advantage.

  9. - HawkWatcher - Wednesday, Jan 16, 13 @ 11:19 am:

    What kind of bs methodology is this? they poll david miller, but don’t show what the vote is with him in the field? How did they “re-allocate” his vote total? The other two polls conducted show Robin in single digits. And if Robin was ever not in third place during the course of the poll, wouldn’t they have shared that information? Conclusion: robin has no path to victory.

  10. - walkinfool - Wednesday, Jan 16, 13 @ 11:20 am:

    Kelly has demonstrated that she’s in position to take second place. Being highly-connected, and touting a PhD, can lose as many votes as it gains.

    I think Toi has a good chance. Debbie has already hit her high point — it just depends on how much time is left for Toi to catch up.

  11. - Boone Logan Square - Wednesday, Jan 16, 13 @ 2:58 pm:

    Interesting that Kelly’s name recognition is lower even though she won the Democratic primary for treasurer in 2010.

    I still think that ground game could swing this race and won’t be surprised by the winner. (Unless the winner is Mel Reynolds.)

  12. - Lincoln Lad - Wednesday, Jan 16, 13 @ 8:01 pm:

    Nonviable candidates should drop out. Halvorsen slips to 3rd in a 3 candidate race…

  13. - One to the Dome - Thursday, Jan 17, 13 @ 12:33 pm:

    What’s the lead in all demographics? Also, is the district made up of that same demographics? I sort of doubt it.

Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.

* Tonight's must-read
* Tribune to put tower up for sale
* They say that like it's a bad thing
* Exelon Just Received A $1.7 Billion Rate Increase Through The Market-Based Capacity Auction
* Point taken. However...
* *** UPDATED x1 *** Byrd-Bennett indicted by the feds
* Yikes, man
* The Credit Union Difference
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Kotowski bash, event list
* Question of the day
* Dimas: "There's a chance we will have to introduce the FY17 budget before we have an FY16 budget"
* Unclear on the concept
* Rhetoric vs. reality
* Supremes snub Illinois Policy Institute appeal
* Aren't we forgetting something?
* True, but...
* Things are tense all over
* Unclear on the concept
* Rep. Leitch won't run again
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Supplement to today’s edition and a Golar replacement update from AlderTrack
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today's edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)
* Yesterday's blog posts

Visit our advertisers...







Search This Blog...

Search the 98th General Assembly By Bill Number
(example: HB0001)

Search the 98th General Assembly By Keyword

* Google Play Promo: EA and Chillingo games for very, very cheap (but for limited regions)
* SIM-free iPhone 6s, iPhone 6s Plus now available from Apple
* PSA: Skype is giving you 20 minutes of free calls to compensate for its recent outage
* AT&T’s 18.4-inch Samsung Galaxy View sighted on FCC
* Sony updates TrackID with new lyric search functionality
* Google Street View updated with support for Cardboard
* OnePlus Mini may come at India event next week

* Foot issue to sideline White Sox prospect Hawkins
* After second base, it was no-go White Sox
* Scouting, player development key for White Sox
* Arbitration-eligible White Sox won't put dent in payroll
* Hawk Harrelson's reduced schedule creates opportunity for White Sox...
* Holliday, Ventura connection goes way back
* 2015 in 3 words: Sale, Abreu, inconsistency


Main Menu
Pundit rankings
Subscriber Content
Blagojevich Trial
Updated Posts

October 2015
September 2015
August 2015
July 2015
June 2015
May 2015
April 2015
March 2015
February 2015
January 2015
December 2014
November 2014
October 2014
September 2014
August 2014
July 2014
June 2014
May 2014
April 2014
March 2014
February 2014
January 2014
December 2013
November 2013
October 2013
September 2013
August 2013
July 2013
June 2013
May 2013
April 2013
March 2013
February 2013
January 2013
December 2012
November 2012
October 2012
September 2012
August 2012
July 2012
June 2012
May 2012
April 2012
March 2012
February 2012
January 2012
December 2011
November 2011
October 2011
September 2011
August 2011
July 2011
June 2011
May 2011
April 2011
March 2011
February 2011
January 2011
December 2010
November 2010
October 2010
September 2010
August 2010
July 2010
June 2010
May 2010
April 2010
March 2010
February 2010
January 2010
December 2009
November 2009
October 2009
September 2009
August 2009
July 2009
June 2009
May 2009
April 2009
March 2009
February 2009
January 2009
December 2008
November 2008
October 2008
September 2008
August 2008
July 2008
June 2008
May 2008
April 2008
March 2008
February 2008
January 2008
December 2007
November 2007
October 2007
September 2007
August 2007
July 2007
June 2007
May 2007
April 2007
March 2007
February 2007
January 2007
December 2006
November 2006
October 2006
September 2006
August 2006
July 2006
June 2006
May 2006
April 2006
March 2006
February 2006
January 2006
December 2005
April 2005
March 2005
February 2005
January 2005
December 2004
November 2004
October 2004

Blog*Spot Archives
November 2005
October 2005
September 2005
August 2005
July 2005
June 2005
May 2005


RSS Feed 2.0
Comments RSS 2.0


* Illinois Gov. Rauner ends quarter with $19M in .....
* Democrats warn Illinois could go broke without .....
* Dems warn state could go broke without budget -.....
* Democrats warn Illinois could go broke without .....
* Democrats warn Illinois could go broke without .....

* Democrats warn Illinois could go broke without state budget
* Tribune Media considering sale of landmarked headquarters
* EPA pushes for 'smart thermostats' as way to limit pollution
* Chicago cab driver group calls for 24-hour strike
* Indiana man chose as 1st national Pig Farmer of Year
* 2 Illinois congressmen heading to Cuba on Sunday for ag trip
* EXCHANGE: Sudzy Bath and Biscuits in Anna caters to canines
* Group says interest in Chicago Halloween parade growing
* Impact of Chicago Marathon felt from now to Sunday event
* Chicago Democrats to meet to fill seat of late Rep. Golar

* The Papers of Abraham Lincoln project still in jeopardy; memo paints discouraging picture
* Democrats say Rauner 'needs to get serious' on budget
* Democrats: Illinois could go broke without budget
* Gov. Rauner ends quarter with $19M in campaign fund
* Prosecutors say former Congressman Aaron Schock is 'grandstanding'
* State Rep. David Leitch won't seek re-election
* Rauner to Democrats: 'Time's up' in budget impasse
* Illinois panel OKs medical marijuana for 8 health conditions
* State Sen. McCarter to challenge Shimkus in Congressional primary
* Rauner increasing pressure on Democrats for budget deal

* O'Hare bonds avoid Chicago stain in city's biggest offering ever
* Tribune Media seeks to sell Trib Tower
* Trib Tower for sale
* A champion of women's issues who loves board games
* Cafe Spiaggia got a makeover. Did it need one?

* Charity raffling off Blackhawks Stanley Cup ring
* Sweet: Emanuel says House GOP needs to work through ‘some issues’
* Democrats warn Illinois could go broke without state budget
* Obama returns to Chicago on Oct. 27 for fundraising
* Aldermen complain about ‘menu’ price hikes
* Charges come at rocky time for CPS
* Patrick Kane feels ‘really good’ as he hits the road
* Viktor Svedberg to get his chance on blue line
* Aldermen vent frustrations about city’s losing battle against homelessness
* Blackhawks mailbag: Crawford, Teravainen, Dano and more

* 1 arrested in fatal shooting of civilian worker for Chicago police
* Motorcyclist killed after hitting deer on I-94, being hit by truck
* Supporters of Woodlawn church gutted by fire start fundraising for restoration
* 1 dead, 4 wounded in separate city shootings
* Former Chicago Public Schools chief to plead guilty to bribery scheme
* NIU evacuated, classes canceled following 'bogus' bomb threats to colleges
* Police: Wrigleyville celebrations relatively calm; 9 misdemeanor arrests
* 1 treated following high CO levels at West Side apartment building
* Smart thermostat program could cut energy bills
* New judge to be assigned to second Soderquist case

* The Papers of Abraham Lincoln project still in jeopardy; memo paints discouraging picture
* Mike Lang: 'Racial Taboo' screening will advance local unity efforts
* Democrats say Rauner 'needs to get serious' on budget
* Bernard Schoenburg: Supreme Court refuses to hear Illinois Policy Institute appeal over press access at Statehouse
* Gov. Rauner ends quarter with $19M in campaign fund
* Prosecutors say former Congressman Aaron Schock is 'grandstanding'
* State Rep. David Leitch won't seek re-election
* George Will: Impeach the IRS director
* Eugene Robinson: Obama is right to be cautious on Syria
* Elizabeth Austin: 'Lawsuit climate' no obstacle to business success

* UPDATE: Heavy police presence at Paxton standoff
* UI Men's Basketball Media Day 2015
* Opposing viewpoint: Iowa QB C.J. Beathard
* Illini roundup: Soccer team secures tie
* Big Ten football update: Illini slip into bowl scene
* Thursday's highlights: Danville wins on, off pitch
* Richey's observations from women's hoops media day
* Volleyball team returns to Huff
* Tate: Two sides for hoops storylines
* Seymour man sentenced in connection with puppy's death

* Officials: NIU classes expected to resume Friday after bomb threat
* Officials: Bomb threat causes evacuation at NIU
* Vigil remembers slain man on 21st birthday in Elgin
* In St. Louis some fans worry; others say bring it on
* Suburban business leaders get taste of DuPage hospitality at expo

* House lawmakers overcome hurdle on key tra...
* Rodney Davis talks funding with Bloomingto...
* The agency that fought Illiana gets a new ...
* Rep. Dold takes educational cruise down Ch...
* Lawmakers decry high turnover rate of VA h...
* CBD Oil, and politics
* Simon considering state Senate bid
* Killer Congressman Tom MacArthur trying to...
* Shutdown? State may not notice
* Rep. Bob Dold

* US Sen. Dick Durbin introduces bill to mak......
* Durbin Proposes Legislation To Lower Textb......

* 2 US senators seek to declare a Fil-Am his......

* #TBT: 4400 Block Of Broadway
* Tribune Tower to join Wrigley Building as not being the same once sold off
* This Is The End...
* Rauner points to 70 Illinois Democrats supported collective bargaining changes
* Rauner points to 70 Illinois Democrats that supported collective bargaining changes
* Dixon police draw criticism over "Gotcha" crime prevention program
* Where's Weyermuller? At Wheeling Township GOP Women's 2015 Luncheon
* Police Chief McCarthy says "There's no magic solution" to ending Chicago violence
* REbarcamp gives Illinois REALTORS 10 ways to learn more from each other
* Peoria's Leitch Won't Seek Re-Election

* Board’s New Rules Will Reduce Risk of Tire Fires and Disease-Carrying Mosquitos
* Illinois Hosts Inaugural Interstate Medical Licensure Compact - Aims to increase health care access through multi-state physician licensure program
* IEMA Announces Elgin Community College Attains ‘Ready to Respond Campus’ Designation - Elgin one of five Illinois campuses to receive distinction
* New Mortgage Loan Interface Increases Efficiency, Compliance
* State Fire Marshal Ushers In Fire Prevention Week - “Hear the Beep Where You Sleep!”

    Hosted by MCS SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax Advertise Here Mobile Version Contact Rich Miller