SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
CapitolFax.com
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
*** UPDATED x1 *** Another poll shows tight race for second place

Wednesday, Jan 16, 2013

* Democratic 2nd Congressional District hopeful Robin Kelly shared her own poll today

Unlike state Sen. Toi Hutchinson’s poll, Kelly’s pollster only asked about the top seven candidates. Actually, they asked about eight candidates, but then David Miller dropped out and they used voters’ “second choice” responses to reallocate his support elsewhere.

The poll of 500 likely voters was conducted by GBA Strategies January 3-7 with a margin of error of +/- 4.4 percent.

Hutchinson’s poll had Halvorson at 16, Hutchinson at 12 and Kelly at 8. Kelly’s poll has the race for second place much closer. Hutchinson’s attempts to push Kelly out or dismiss her to contributors and influencers as an also-ran probably aren’t gonna work, at least for now.

* From the pollster

• Halvorson begins in the lead, but the race is wide open. Congresswoman Halvorson begins the campaign with 25 percent of the electorate in her corner, but her lead is soft. Senator Hutchinson (16 percent) and Kelly (15 percent) follow, with no other candidate getting more than 10 percent. Fifteen percent are purely undecided, but a full 65 percent of voters are either undecided or only softly supporting a candidate.

• Hutchinson and Halvorson share the same base. Both Debbie Halvorson and Toi Hutchinson start with their base of support coming from the same demographic and regional base, especially white voters and voters in the southern portion of the district.

• Kelly starts with a base of support in the suburbs. Robin Kelly currently leads all other candidates among several key groups, including African American women, African Americans in the suburbs and African Americans with a college degree. And Kelly’s support from these pivotal blocs grows during the survey.

• The NRA is extremely unpopular with this electorate. Just 17 percent of likely voters have a favorable impression of the NRA, with 63 percent saying they feel unfavorably towards the pro-gun organization. Kelly’s record of standing up to the NRA and her pledge to reduce gun violence resonates as one of the most powerful reasons to support her.

• Kelly has significant room to grow. Despite having lower name ID than Halvorson or Hutchinson, Kelly starts the race off statistically tied in second place. Once voters—especially voters in the city—hear more about Kelly and the leading candidates’ positions on preventing gun violence, the vote moves dramatically in her favor, pulling her ahead of both Halvorson and Hutchinson.

• Hutchinson/Halvorson’s growth limited by NRA ties. Both other leading candidates find their growth opportunities severely limited by their proud associations with the NRA and the ISRA. Nearly 7-in-10 voters (69 percent) oppose allowing concealed carry in this race. Voters have very serious concerns about Hutchinson’s and Halvorson’s positions on this critical issue.

There’s no doubt that Kelly believes the gun issue is her best path to victory here. She’s also raised more money than any other candidate so far (although not a huge amount more than Hutchinson is claiming).

Discuss.

*** UPDATE *** Speaking of guns…

Kelly Supports Obama Gun Control Initiatives, Calls Out Opponents
Only major candidate with a record of standing up to the NRA

RICHTON PARK, IL— Today, Robin Kelly, Democratic candidate for the Second Congressional District of Illinois, announced her support for the gun violence prevention proposals that President Obama and Vice-President Joe Biden announced this morning.

“I stand with President Obama’s plan to get the dangerous weapons that are killing our neighbors off of the streets,” Robin Kelly said. “The NRA has engaged in desperate smear campaign to stop him, including attacking President Obama’s daughters. We need more voices in Washington willing to stand up to NRA, instead of taking support from them.

“Unlike my opponents Debbie Halvorson and Toi Hutchinson, who both received support from the NRA, I got an F rating and frankly, I could not be more proud. I have the record and resolve to stand with President Obama, Mayor Emanuel, and Cook County Board President Toni Preckwinkle to get dangerous weapons out of our neighborhoods.”

Robin Kelly is the only candidate to have issued a five-point pledge to get assault weapons and high capacity magazines off the streets of Chicago and the Southland, as well as making sure that Illinois’ conceal and carry ban stays in effect. You can read her full pledge at RobinKellyPledge.com.

Robin Kelly is a former state representative, Chief of Staff to the Illinois State Treasurer and Chief Administrative Officer for Cook County under Toni Preckwinkle. But, most importantly, she’s a mother and a community activist who has dedicated her career to fighting for economic opportunity, domestic violence prevention and reasonable common sense gun control laws.

- Posted by Rich Miller        


13 Comments
  1. - VanillaMan - Wednesday, Jan 16, 13 @ 9:56 am:

    Remarkable!
    So Toi’s poll shows her as a winning candidate, and today Kelly’s shows her as a winner!

    Wow!

    But both agree that Former Congresswoman Halvorson in the lead.

    And that is the takeaway…


  2. - The Captain - Wednesday, Jan 16, 13 @ 10:05 am:

    A month ago I would have rather been Harris than anyone else in this race but he gave away his natural advantage, now I’d rather be Robin Kelly. She’s a PhD, has the top ballot spot, raised the most money, has the best record on the gun issue at the forefront of voters minds (other than the economy where there isn’t much difference to separate the candidates) and the opponents ahead of her appear to be bumping up against a ceiling. She’s in the catbird seat.

    The only downside for her is that normally you would expect Halvorson and Hutchinson to beat each other up since they’re competing for the same voters but since they both have the same record on guns they’re not going to do the dirty work for Kelly on that issue, she’ll have to spend the money to do that herself. But she has the money and you can do that with a comparative ad (as opposed to straight negative) and get the job done.

    Things are setting up well for her.


  3. - Six Degrees of Separation - Wednesday, Jan 16, 13 @ 10:09 am:

    Those 17% of NRA favorables (especially if they are strongly opinionated) could cut the other way in a race with this many candidates, too - just sayin’.


  4. - The Captain - Wednesday, Jan 16, 13 @ 10:14 am:

    Except that the two candidates with the best (almost identical) NRA record (Halvorson and Hutchinson) are both viable so no one candidate is going to take the 17% of the NRA vote as a monolithic bloc.


  5. - GA Watcher - Wednesday, Jan 16, 13 @ 10:47 am:

    It’s somewhat refreshing that the three top contenders in this race are women.


  6. - Carl Nyberg - Wednesday, Jan 16, 13 @ 10:49 am:

    I’m kinda surprised to see Halvorson poll so well.

    I voted for Halvorson in the primary based on listening to JJJ at IVI-IPO and talking to a member of Jackson’s staff.

    The stuff Jackson said was obviously untrue to anyone who has ridden Metra Electric. And Jackson’s staff member’s defense of Jackson made me more confident something was not right.

    But I’m not a lock for Halvorson in this race.

    I assume that many of the votes for Halvorson are like me: people who thought the bloom was off the rose with JJJ, but only had weak (or no) loyalties to Halvorson.

    This poll suggests Halvorson brings almost all her primary voters to this election as her base or that JJJ voters have flipped to Halvorson.

    Any JJJ voters that flipped to Halvorson seem likely to be soft enough that when they get more information they might flip again.

    Also, I have a hard time believing that only 15% are undecided. The poll that said 40% undecided feels closer to the truth.


  7. - Knifefighter - Wednesday, Jan 16, 13 @ 10:53 am:

    VanillaMan–

    You’re right that obviously Halvorson is running away with this thing, but I wouldn’t say the Kelly poll shows her as the winning candidate. Like the other poll, it shows her in third. Unlike the other poll story, it doesn’t actually provide numbers about where opinion goes. Smells like a rat to me.


  8. - Carl Nyberg - Wednesday, Jan 16, 13 @ 11:10 am:

    Age at time of election:

    Joyce Washington–60-64
    Mel Reynolds–61
    Robin Kelly–almost 57
    Debbie Halvorson–55
    Anthony Beale–45
    Toi Hutchinson–almost 40
    Napoleon Harris–34

    Remember, it takes six to ten years to build the relations and seniority to get stuff done, although Halvorson would start with an advantage.


  9. - HawkWatcher - Wednesday, Jan 16, 13 @ 11:19 am:

    What kind of bs methodology is this? they poll david miller, but don’t show what the vote is with him in the field? How did they “re-allocate” his vote total? The other two polls conducted show Robin in single digits. And if Robin was ever not in third place during the course of the poll, wouldn’t they have shared that information? Conclusion: robin has no path to victory.


  10. - walkinfool - Wednesday, Jan 16, 13 @ 11:20 am:

    Kelly has demonstrated that she’s in position to take second place. Being highly-connected, and touting a PhD, can lose as many votes as it gains.

    I think Toi has a good chance. Debbie has already hit her high point — it just depends on how much time is left for Toi to catch up.


  11. - Boone Logan Square - Wednesday, Jan 16, 13 @ 2:58 pm:

    Interesting that Kelly’s name recognition is lower even though she won the Democratic primary for treasurer in 2010.

    I still think that ground game could swing this race and won’t be surprised by the winner. (Unless the winner is Mel Reynolds.)


  12. - Lincoln Lad - Wednesday, Jan 16, 13 @ 8:01 pm:

    Nonviable candidates should drop out. Halvorsen slips to 3rd in a 3 candidate race…


  13. - One to the Dome - Thursday, Jan 17, 13 @ 12:33 pm:

    What’s the lead in all demographics? Also, is the district made up of that same demographics? I sort of doubt it.


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


* Unions file suit in St. Clair County
* Reader comments closed for the holiday weekend
* AG Madigan files TRO
* In re James Dimas
* Question of the day
* Weirdest. Oppo Dump. Ever.
* Big bucks reported by Zopp, Raja
* LIVE Comptroller Munger press conference coverage
* Yet another clock starts ticking down
* Hey, Cardinal fans...
* Rauner makes cheery visit to Illinois State Museum
* The Tier 2 difference
* *** UPDATED x4 *** Attorney General goes to court
* Credit Unions – Protecting Financial Futures
* GOP legislator wants "temporary, balanced budget"
* Food for thought
* The blame game
* Meanwhile, in the real world...
* When Indiana invaded Illinois
* Yesterday's blog posts

Support CapitolFax.com
Visit our advertisers...

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............


Search This Blog...

Search the 98th General Assembly By Bill Number
(example: HB0001)

Search the 98th General Assembly By Keyword

          
        * Galaxy Note 5 case, iPhone 6s camera, Apple Watch 2 & more – Pocketnow Daily
        * Swappa launches Play Store app to check the price of your devices
        * Sprint CEO is tired of John Legere’s tweets, and calls Uncarrier BS
        * Bethesda’s Fallout Shelter coming to Android next month
        * Samsung Galaxy S6 Edge+ dummy vs. Galaxy S6 in photos
        * Dolphin Emulator for Android to take advantage of 64-bit ARM technology
        * Is this Blackberry’s first Android smartphone?

        * LG Bluetooth Headset Hits 10 Million Mark…And Counting
        * Transcend Hits Back With A New Line Of USB 3.0 External Hard Drives
        * Play Dragon Quest X On Dospara’s New 15.6-Inch Full HD Gaming Notebook
        * Americans Stream 135 Billion Songs in First Half of Year
        * Drone Used To Help Rescue Trapped Rafters
        * Dubai Office Building & Its Furniture Will Be Completely 3D Printed
        * Apple Music Is Reportedly A Huge Battery Drain

        * Tatis Jr. among White Sox finds on int'l market
        * Sale grabs AL's top pitcher honor for June
        * Tatis Jr. among White Sox finds on int'l market
        * White Sox July 2 signings
        * Tatis Jr. among White Sox finds on int'l market
        * Who will finish second in homers for the 2015 White Sox?
        * White Sox not deterred by delays, top Cards

        ...............


        Main Menu
        Home
        Illinois
        YouTube
        Pundit rankings
        Obama
        Subscriber Content
        Durbin
        Burris
        Blagojevich Trial
        Advertising
        Updated Posts
        Polls

        Archives
        July 2015
        June 2015
        May 2015
        April 2015
        March 2015
        February 2015
        January 2015
        December 2014
        November 2014
        October 2014
        September 2014
        August 2014
        July 2014
        June 2014
        May 2014
        April 2014
        March 2014
        February 2014
        January 2014
        December 2013
        November 2013
        October 2013
        September 2013
        August 2013
        July 2013
        June 2013
        May 2013
        April 2013
        March 2013
        February 2013
        January 2013
        December 2012
        November 2012
        October 2012
        September 2012
        August 2012
        July 2012
        June 2012
        May 2012
        April 2012
        March 2012
        February 2012
        January 2012
        December 2011
        November 2011
        October 2011
        September 2011
        August 2011
        July 2011
        June 2011
        May 2011
        April 2011
        March 2011
        February 2011
        January 2011
        December 2010
        November 2010
        October 2010
        September 2010
        August 2010
        July 2010
        June 2010
        May 2010
        April 2010
        March 2010
        February 2010
        January 2010
        December 2009
        November 2009
        October 2009
        September 2009
        August 2009
        July 2009
        June 2009
        May 2009
        April 2009
        March 2009
        February 2009
        January 2009
        December 2008
        November 2008
        October 2008
        September 2008
        August 2008
        July 2008
        June 2008
        May 2008
        April 2008
        March 2008
        February 2008
        January 2008
        December 2007
        November 2007
        October 2007
        September 2007
        August 2007
        July 2007
        June 2007
        May 2007
        April 2007
        March 2007
        February 2007
        January 2007
        December 2006
        November 2006
        October 2006
        September 2006
        August 2006
        July 2006
        June 2006
        May 2006
        April 2006
        March 2006
        February 2006
        January 2006
        December 2005
        April 2005
        March 2005
        February 2005
        January 2005
        December 2004
        November 2004
        October 2004

        Blog*Spot Archives
        November 2005
        October 2005
        September 2005
        August 2005
        July 2005
        June 2005
        May 2005

        Syndication

        RSS Feed 2.0
        Comments RSS 2.0
        WordPress

        Loading


        * Paying for state's payroll, bills still up in t.....
        * Union lawsuit seeks full pay despite no Illinoi.....
        * Rauner OKs 5 clemency requests, rejects 153 - D.....
        * Tornado victims granted extension to file tax r.....
        * Budget Stalemate Moves To Court As Political Rh.....


        * Could insulin pills prevent diabetes? Big study seeks answer
        * Without a budget, providers prepare, officials go to court
        * Union lawsuit seek full pay despite no Illinois budget
        * Parents of Illinois players don't believe coach allegations
        * Troy man not guilty by reason of insanity in church shooting
        * Indiana law spurs 'fireworks tourism' from Illinoisans
        * U of Illinois freezes administration hiring over budget
        * Chicago teachers protest planned cuts after pension payment
        * Salaita hired in Lebanon after losing U of Illinois offer
        * Illinois River hits record flood stage at Beardstown

        * State employee lawsuit seeks assurance of full pay despite no budget
        * U of I freezes administration hiring over budget
        * Attorney General Lisa Madigan seeks court ruling on state payments during budget impasse
        * Illinois EPA: State has landfill capacity for 21 more years
        * State lawmakers point fingers over budget impasse; temporary budget in limbo
        * Former Illinois treasurer employees under Dan Rutherford sue over firings
        * Lawmakers point fingers over budget impasse; temporary budget in limbo
        * Illinois medical marijuana patients now number 2,600
        * Budget impasse shuts down Lincoln's Challenge program for troubled youths
        * Illinois House defeats 1-month budget; same bill coming from Senate

        * Illinois weathers second day without state budget
        * Yelp calls off sale talks—for now
        * How a Reddit rally generated huge turnout for Sanders in Madison
        * Scott Walker to reveal presidential campaign intentions July 13
        * Sun Trading CEO Bernard Dan steps down


          * Woman with dementia missing from Jefferson Park
          * Police investigate shooting on I-55
          * Body found in garage fire on NW Side
          * Wisconsin Republicans propose limiting public access to records
          * 7 injured in shootings on South, Far South and West sides
          * Hedge fund manager's swank offices concealed a Ponzi scheme
          * Chicago police officers sue over tattoo cover-up rule
          * 6 years in prison for hedge fund trader in Ponzi scheme
          * Podiatrist convicted in Sacred Heart Hospital kickback scheme
          * Scholarships give college-bound homeless students a boost


          * For same-sex marriage opponents, the fight is far from over
          * Emails show Emanuel, top officials aware of Clinton's private address
          * After pension payment, Chicago Public Schools to make $200M in cuts
          * CPS, Emanuel warn of deep cuts, layoffs to school district
          * After marriage equality, what's next for the LGBT movement?
          * The night Chicago politicians spent punching each other in the face
          * The legacy of Willie Dixon on his 100th birthday
          * Supreme Court rules all states must license and recognize same-sex marriages
          * Preckwinkle may reevaluate sales tax plan if Springfield acts on pensions
          * Democratic lawmaker 'mad as hell' over Rauner's veto of state budget


          * State employee lawsuit seeks assurance of full pay despite no budget
          * Our Opinion: Springfield's toilet paper caper exposes the worst and best in people
          * Esther Cepeda: Adding a woman to $10 bill an empty gesture
          * U of I freezes administration hiring over budget
          * Attorney General Lisa Madigan seeks court ruling on state payments during budget impasse
          * Illinois EPA: State has landfill capacity for 21 more years
          * Our Opinion: Winslow looks to heal divisions
          * Bernard Schoenburg: Gov. Rauner's tone has changed, Sen. Andy Manar says
          * George Will: Some GOP candidates becoming unhinged
          * Eugene Robinson: In Charleston, 'the power of God's grace'


          * Langley soars to first-round lead
          * Freshman, father struggle with allegations
          * UI grad Correa pays price
          * High school kickoff countdown: Centennial needs QB
          * 3 youths injured in rollover crash near Colfax
          * Court orders release in drug case
          * UPDATE: Man dies in motorcycle-SUV crash
          * Rantoul teen arrested for allegedly shooting a BB gun at a bicyclist
          * Rantoul man arrested for allegedly shooting a BB gun at a bicyclist
          * Sullivan jogger dies after being hit by a vehicle


          * Military recruits still not using American-made sneakers
          * AP Source: Blazers reach 5-year $120M-plus deal with Lillard
          * Kazmir helps A's blank Mariners 4-0
          * Cardinals lose 3rd in a row, 5-3 to Padres
          * Vice President Joe Biden to attend the World Cup final

          * House lawmakers overcome hurdle on key tra...
          * Rodney Davis talks funding with Bloomingto...
          * The agency that fought Illiana gets a new ...
          * Rep. Dold takes educational cruise down Ch...
          * Lawmakers decry high turnover rate of VA h...
          * CBD Oil, and politics
          * Simon considering state Senate bid
          * Killer Congressman Tom MacArthur trying to...
          * Shutdown? State may not notice
          * Rep. Bob Dold

          * Cuba Embassy - RiverBender.com...
          * Durbin and Kelly want to know petcoke heal......
          * Cuba Embassy - Alton Daily News...
          * Centralia Mayor Stresses Importance of Amt......

          * Families participate in Sen. Kirk's stair ......

          * What should we think if World Cup final gets better ratings than Miss USA?
          * EXTRA: Will ‘Dukes of Hazzard’ become the new ‘Song of the South?’
          * A Failure To Communicate
          * Using Technology to Improve Rural Health Access
          * Sen. Mark Kirk pokes at Eric Holder: Did NSA spy on Congress?
          * Democratic National Committee Executive Committee meeting in Chicago June 8
          * Emily's List hits Chicago June 27: Sebelius, Lisa Madigan, Neely, Finney to speak
          * Feinstein, Chambliss defend phone data snooping to "keep the homeland safe." Durbin has concerns. UPDATED
          * President Obama official schedule and guidance June 6, 2013. North Carolina, California
          * Verizon phone records secretly collected by the National Security Agency


          * State, Teamsters Reach Tentative Agreement - Workers at IDOT, DHS, IDES, and CMS in Cook County to Vote on New Contract
          * Governor Rauner Extends Tax Filing and Payment Deadlines for Businesses and Individuals Impacted by Recent Tornado - Deadlines Pushed to December 31, 2015
          * Illinois EPA Releases Annual Report on Landfill Capacity
          * IDNR Urges Public to Leave Fireworks Displays to Those Who Are Licensed and Trained - Fireworks Show Sponsors Reminded to Check Credentials of Fireworks Vendors
          * Governor Receives Initial Criminal Justice Commission Report




              Hosted by MCS SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax Advertise Here Mobile Version Contact Rich Miller