SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
CapitolFax.com
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
*** UPDATED x1 *** Another poll shows tight race for second place

Wednesday, Jan 16, 2013

* Democratic 2nd Congressional District hopeful Robin Kelly shared her own poll today

Unlike state Sen. Toi Hutchinson’s poll, Kelly’s pollster only asked about the top seven candidates. Actually, they asked about eight candidates, but then David Miller dropped out and they used voters’ “second choice” responses to reallocate his support elsewhere.

The poll of 500 likely voters was conducted by GBA Strategies January 3-7 with a margin of error of +/- 4.4 percent.

Hutchinson’s poll had Halvorson at 16, Hutchinson at 12 and Kelly at 8. Kelly’s poll has the race for second place much closer. Hutchinson’s attempts to push Kelly out or dismiss her to contributors and influencers as an also-ran probably aren’t gonna work, at least for now.

* From the pollster

• Halvorson begins in the lead, but the race is wide open. Congresswoman Halvorson begins the campaign with 25 percent of the electorate in her corner, but her lead is soft. Senator Hutchinson (16 percent) and Kelly (15 percent) follow, with no other candidate getting more than 10 percent. Fifteen percent are purely undecided, but a full 65 percent of voters are either undecided or only softly supporting a candidate.

• Hutchinson and Halvorson share the same base. Both Debbie Halvorson and Toi Hutchinson start with their base of support coming from the same demographic and regional base, especially white voters and voters in the southern portion of the district.

• Kelly starts with a base of support in the suburbs. Robin Kelly currently leads all other candidates among several key groups, including African American women, African Americans in the suburbs and African Americans with a college degree. And Kelly’s support from these pivotal blocs grows during the survey.

• The NRA is extremely unpopular with this electorate. Just 17 percent of likely voters have a favorable impression of the NRA, with 63 percent saying they feel unfavorably towards the pro-gun organization. Kelly’s record of standing up to the NRA and her pledge to reduce gun violence resonates as one of the most powerful reasons to support her.

• Kelly has significant room to grow. Despite having lower name ID than Halvorson or Hutchinson, Kelly starts the race off statistically tied in second place. Once voters—especially voters in the city—hear more about Kelly and the leading candidates’ positions on preventing gun violence, the vote moves dramatically in her favor, pulling her ahead of both Halvorson and Hutchinson.

• Hutchinson/Halvorson’s growth limited by NRA ties. Both other leading candidates find their growth opportunities severely limited by their proud associations with the NRA and the ISRA. Nearly 7-in-10 voters (69 percent) oppose allowing concealed carry in this race. Voters have very serious concerns about Hutchinson’s and Halvorson’s positions on this critical issue.

There’s no doubt that Kelly believes the gun issue is her best path to victory here. She’s also raised more money than any other candidate so far (although not a huge amount more than Hutchinson is claiming).

Discuss.

*** UPDATE *** Speaking of guns…

Kelly Supports Obama Gun Control Initiatives, Calls Out Opponents
Only major candidate with a record of standing up to the NRA

RICHTON PARK, IL— Today, Robin Kelly, Democratic candidate for the Second Congressional District of Illinois, announced her support for the gun violence prevention proposals that President Obama and Vice-President Joe Biden announced this morning.

“I stand with President Obama’s plan to get the dangerous weapons that are killing our neighbors off of the streets,” Robin Kelly said. “The NRA has engaged in desperate smear campaign to stop him, including attacking President Obama’s daughters. We need more voices in Washington willing to stand up to NRA, instead of taking support from them.

“Unlike my opponents Debbie Halvorson and Toi Hutchinson, who both received support from the NRA, I got an F rating and frankly, I could not be more proud. I have the record and resolve to stand with President Obama, Mayor Emanuel, and Cook County Board President Toni Preckwinkle to get dangerous weapons out of our neighborhoods.”

Robin Kelly is the only candidate to have issued a five-point pledge to get assault weapons and high capacity magazines off the streets of Chicago and the Southland, as well as making sure that Illinois’ conceal and carry ban stays in effect. You can read her full pledge at RobinKellyPledge.com.

Robin Kelly is a former state representative, Chief of Staff to the Illinois State Treasurer and Chief Administrative Officer for Cook County under Toni Preckwinkle. But, most importantly, she’s a mother and a community activist who has dedicated her career to fighting for economic opportunity, domestic violence prevention and reasonable common sense gun control laws.

- Posted by Rich Miller        


13 Comments
  1. - VanillaMan - Wednesday, Jan 16, 13 @ 9:56 am:

    Remarkable!
    So Toi’s poll shows her as a winning candidate, and today Kelly’s shows her as a winner!

    Wow!

    But both agree that Former Congresswoman Halvorson in the lead.

    And that is the takeaway…


  2. - The Captain - Wednesday, Jan 16, 13 @ 10:05 am:

    A month ago I would have rather been Harris than anyone else in this race but he gave away his natural advantage, now I’d rather be Robin Kelly. She’s a PhD, has the top ballot spot, raised the most money, has the best record on the gun issue at the forefront of voters minds (other than the economy where there isn’t much difference to separate the candidates) and the opponents ahead of her appear to be bumping up against a ceiling. She’s in the catbird seat.

    The only downside for her is that normally you would expect Halvorson and Hutchinson to beat each other up since they’re competing for the same voters but since they both have the same record on guns they’re not going to do the dirty work for Kelly on that issue, she’ll have to spend the money to do that herself. But she has the money and you can do that with a comparative ad (as opposed to straight negative) and get the job done.

    Things are setting up well for her.


  3. - Six Degrees of Separation - Wednesday, Jan 16, 13 @ 10:09 am:

    Those 17% of NRA favorables (especially if they are strongly opinionated) could cut the other way in a race with this many candidates, too - just sayin’.


  4. - The Captain - Wednesday, Jan 16, 13 @ 10:14 am:

    Except that the two candidates with the best (almost identical) NRA record (Halvorson and Hutchinson) are both viable so no one candidate is going to take the 17% of the NRA vote as a monolithic bloc.


  5. - GA Watcher - Wednesday, Jan 16, 13 @ 10:47 am:

    It’s somewhat refreshing that the three top contenders in this race are women.


  6. - Carl Nyberg - Wednesday, Jan 16, 13 @ 10:49 am:

    I’m kinda surprised to see Halvorson poll so well.

    I voted for Halvorson in the primary based on listening to JJJ at IVI-IPO and talking to a member of Jackson’s staff.

    The stuff Jackson said was obviously untrue to anyone who has ridden Metra Electric. And Jackson’s staff member’s defense of Jackson made me more confident something was not right.

    But I’m not a lock for Halvorson in this race.

    I assume that many of the votes for Halvorson are like me: people who thought the bloom was off the rose with JJJ, but only had weak (or no) loyalties to Halvorson.

    This poll suggests Halvorson brings almost all her primary voters to this election as her base or that JJJ voters have flipped to Halvorson.

    Any JJJ voters that flipped to Halvorson seem likely to be soft enough that when they get more information they might flip again.

    Also, I have a hard time believing that only 15% are undecided. The poll that said 40% undecided feels closer to the truth.


  7. - Knifefighter - Wednesday, Jan 16, 13 @ 10:53 am:

    VanillaMan–

    You’re right that obviously Halvorson is running away with this thing, but I wouldn’t say the Kelly poll shows her as the winning candidate. Like the other poll, it shows her in third. Unlike the other poll story, it doesn’t actually provide numbers about where opinion goes. Smells like a rat to me.


  8. - Carl Nyberg - Wednesday, Jan 16, 13 @ 11:10 am:

    Age at time of election:

    Joyce Washington–60-64
    Mel Reynolds–61
    Robin Kelly–almost 57
    Debbie Halvorson–55
    Anthony Beale–45
    Toi Hutchinson–almost 40
    Napoleon Harris–34

    Remember, it takes six to ten years to build the relations and seniority to get stuff done, although Halvorson would start with an advantage.


  9. - HawkWatcher - Wednesday, Jan 16, 13 @ 11:19 am:

    What kind of bs methodology is this? they poll david miller, but don’t show what the vote is with him in the field? How did they “re-allocate” his vote total? The other two polls conducted show Robin in single digits. And if Robin was ever not in third place during the course of the poll, wouldn’t they have shared that information? Conclusion: robin has no path to victory.


  10. - walkinfool - Wednesday, Jan 16, 13 @ 11:20 am:

    Kelly has demonstrated that she’s in position to take second place. Being highly-connected, and touting a PhD, can lose as many votes as it gains.

    I think Toi has a good chance. Debbie has already hit her high point — it just depends on how much time is left for Toi to catch up.


  11. - Boone Logan Square - Wednesday, Jan 16, 13 @ 2:58 pm:

    Interesting that Kelly’s name recognition is lower even though she won the Democratic primary for treasurer in 2010.

    I still think that ground game could swing this race and won’t be surprised by the winner. (Unless the winner is Mel Reynolds.)


  12. - Lincoln Lad - Wednesday, Jan 16, 13 @ 8:01 pm:

    Nonviable candidates should drop out. Halvorsen slips to 3rd in a 3 candidate race…


  13. - One to the Dome - Thursday, Jan 17, 13 @ 12:33 pm:

    What’s the lead in all demographics? Also, is the district made up of that same demographics? I sort of doubt it.


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


* Reader comments closed for the weekend
* No pension bump for Stermer, MJM still not persuaded on special session
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - More comptroller stuff
* 1:30 comptroller announcement expected - Stermer appointed, says he will resign January 12th
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Comptroller stuff
* Golden Horseshoe Awards
* Bears open thread
* More adventures in misgovernance
* Question of the day - Golden Horseshoe Awards
* Petulance all around
* Yesterday's blog posts

Support CapitolFax.com
Visit our advertisers...

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............


Search This Blog...

Search the 98th General Assembly By Bill Number
(example: HB0001)

Search the 98th General Assembly By Keyword

          
        * Announcement timing is everything
        * Galaxy Note Edge Review
        * Oppo R5 vs HTC One M8: Thin vs. Powerful
        * Bring Back the Old School with the NES30 Bluetooth Controller [DEALS]
        * OnePlus One mini, BlackBerry Classic, Windows Phone ups & downs | Pocketnow Weekly 127
        * Get off the fence and go get a smartwatch
        * Apple Watch retail, Android Wear Lollipop, Nexus 6 comments & more – Pocketnow Daily Recap

        * You Will Get to See “The Interview,” Sony Lawyer Says
        * Amazon Web Services adds to its enterprise war chest
        * 9 Amazing Gifts for the Hearthstone Addict
        * Obama Says Sony Hack Is Not an Act of War
        * BackBeat Fit wireless headphones: Made for exercising to music
        * Five Best iPad Cases
        * Dr. Evil Invades SNL to Blast North Korea and Sony (Video)

        * The year in injuries: White Sox have been better, could've been worse
        * Williams: Make protesting voices heard through vote
        * Williams: Make protesting voices heard through vote
        * White Sox also had a December to remember 100 years ago
        * Terrerobytes: Future of Cuban baseball complicated on both sides
        * White Sox sign George Kottaras to a minor league deal
        * Kottaras to join White Sox with Minor League deal

        ...............


        Main Menu
        Home
        Illinois
        YouTube
        Pundit rankings
        Obama
        Subscriber Content
        Durbin
        Burris
        Blagojevich Trial
        Advertising
        Updated Posts
        Polls

        Archives
        December 2014
        November 2014
        October 2014
        September 2014
        August 2014
        July 2014
        June 2014
        May 2014
        April 2014
        March 2014
        February 2014
        January 2014
        December 2013
        November 2013
        October 2013
        September 2013
        August 2013
        July 2013
        June 2013
        May 2013
        April 2013
        March 2013
        February 2013
        January 2013
        December 2012
        November 2012
        October 2012
        September 2012
        August 2012
        July 2012
        June 2012
        May 2012
        April 2012
        March 2012
        February 2012
        January 2012
        December 2011
        November 2011
        October 2011
        September 2011
        August 2011
        July 2011
        June 2011
        May 2011
        April 2011
        March 2011
        February 2011
        January 2011
        December 2010
        November 2010
        October 2010
        September 2010
        August 2010
        July 2010
        June 2010
        May 2010
        April 2010
        March 2010
        February 2010
        January 2010
        December 2009
        November 2009
        October 2009
        September 2009
        August 2009
        July 2009
        June 2009
        May 2009
        April 2009
        March 2009
        February 2009
        January 2009
        December 2008
        November 2008
        October 2008
        September 2008
        August 2008
        July 2008
        June 2008
        May 2008
        April 2008
        March 2008
        February 2008
        January 2008
        December 2007
        November 2007
        October 2007
        September 2007
        August 2007
        July 2007
        June 2007
        May 2007
        April 2007
        March 2007
        February 2007
        January 2007
        December 2006
        November 2006
        October 2006
        September 2006
        August 2006
        July 2006
        June 2006
        May 2006
        April 2006
        March 2006
        February 2006
        January 2006
        December 2005
        April 2005
        March 2005
        February 2005
        January 2005
        December 2004
        November 2004
        October 2004

        Blog*Spot Archives
        November 2005
        October 2005
        September 2005
        August 2005
        July 2005
        June 2005
        May 2005

        Syndication

        RSS Feed 2.0
        Comments RSS 2.0
        WordPress

        Loading


        * Public Pensions Are America's Greece..
        * Republicans On Special Session..
        * Havenstein to New Hampshire Supporters: 'You In.....
        * Bernard Schoenburg: Rauner talks of dogs, housi.....
        * Mother speaks at slain Chicago teen's funeral..


        * Illinois to get $1.6M for Heart of Dallas Bowl
        * Report: Illinois treasurer OK'd raises for dozens
        * 1 dead, many injured in shooting at suburban party
        * Milestone in osprey program as birds migrate
        * Raising juror pay, reducing juries gets mixed reviews
        * Police looking for suspect in Effingham shooting
        * Firefighters battle grain bin fire for 9 hours
        * 1 dead, many injured in shooting at suburban party
        * Mother speaks at slain Chicago teen's funeral
        * Chicago mayor's teenage son mugged near home

        * State treasurer employees get raises, stipends as Rutherford’s term comes to end
        * Springfield-based U.S. attorney’s investigations nab 13; race questions raised
        * 2nd Illinois prison with possible chickenpox
        * Quinn signs bill increasing juror pay
        * Quinn names longtime aide Jerry Stermer comptroller until Jan. 12
        * Quinn signs law to nix deadline for asbestos lawsuits
        * Quinn to name comptroller replacement this afternoon
        * Madigan says T-Mobile settlement shields consumers
        * Quinn calls legislature back to Springfield to approve special election to replace Topinka
        * Audit: DCFS loses track of runaways

        * Can Garcia's run for mayor fire up independents?
        * Chicago's newest workout (and personal statement) options
        * A photo shop for photographers
        * The Life of Patrick Ryan: Act II, Scene 2
        * Office conversions kick small firms to the curb


        * Lakeview pot dispensary on hold; Tunney opposes Halsted location
        * Despite community pleas, CPS puts Dyett HS out for proposals
        * Quinn to appoint new Illinois Comptroller today
        * Gov. Quinn appoints longtime aide as Illinois comptroller
        * Watch: President Obama's year-end press conference
        * Rewriting the Sony cyberattack script
        * time for new course in Cuba
        * Are Rahm's numbers creeping up? New internals show him near 50
        * Obama guidance, press schedule, Dec. 19, 2014. Press conference
        * A whole lot of nothing from the City Council


        * Bronzeville man charged in Loop convenience store robbery
        * Boy, 17, wounded in Far South Side shooting
        * South Loop crash leaves two dead, one hospitalized
        * One killed, as many as 10 more shot at south suburban house party
        * At least 5 wounded in shootings since Saturday evening
        * FBI: 'Play-Along Bandit' hits 6th bank
        * Emanuel's son robbed near family's North Side home
        * Man dies day after Albany Park shooting
        * Demario Bailey funeral: 'The kids are the world. It starts with them'
        * DNA leads to murder charges in 1994 stabbing


        * Listen to State Week - December 19, 2014
        * Quinn Picks Budget Chief To Be Temporary Comptroller
        * 'Uber-gentrification' a force in Chicago's West Loop
        * Durbin leaving Congressional roommates behind
        * Worries rise in Russia as ruble falls
        * Improviser finds purpose in Chicago police mental health crisis trainings
        * Chicago 'petcoke' handler says it'll enclose piles
        * Waukegan woman seeks to trademark 'I can't breathe'
        * Obama re-establishing US relations with Cuba
        * Teaching hospitals hit hardest by medicare fines for patient safety


        * Quote of the day: Sunday, Dec. 21, 2014
        * Bernard Schoenburg: Rauner talks of dogs, housing and the work ahead as governor
        * State treasurer employees get raises, stipends as Rutherford’s term comes to end
        * Cathy Becker: Because it’s the right thing to do
        * T. Ray McJunkins: Justice, righteousness descend to fulfill dream
        * Springfield-based U.S. attorney’s investigations nab 13; race questions raised
        * 2nd Illinois prison with possible chickenpox
        * Sen. Dick Durbin: Clean water access bill honors Simon
        * Charles Krauthammer: How to fight the lone wolf
        * Quote of the day: Saturday, Dec. 20, 2014


        * Frietag 25th
        * Fishel 50th
        * I Can Read! of Southern Illinois celebrates student achievement
        * Off the beat: Two dead in head-on collision on I-55
        * Williamson County commissioners frustrated over lack of changes
        * Be smart: Keep your home safe during holidays
        * Neighborhood watch: Crimes of the week
        * Communities show support for family of Lux Brymer
        * Man killed in accident near Heyworth
        * Historic Route 66 goes electric; charging stations to be added between metro-east and Chicago


        * Bears' Long inactive for Lions game with hip injury
        * West side of A&M's Kyle Field imploded
        * Memphis, BYU meet in inaugural Miami Beach Bowl
        * Pakistan makes arrests in Taliban school carnage
        * Tunisians vote in historic presidential runoff

        * Danny Davis Defeats Robert Bumpers In Illi...
        * Rehab of Affordable Housing Building in Ol...
        * Rep. Danny Davis Hopes to Keep His Seat fo...
        * Illinois House Dems agonize over vote to f...
        * Congressman calls for removal of police co...
        * Congressmen Plan House Speech on Chicago's...
        * Davis To Obama: 'Do Everything In Your Pow...
        * Rahm Touts New Law to Clear Juvenile Polic...
        * Dem Rep. to Columnist: Stop Comparing Blac...
        * REP. DANNY K. DAVIS NOW SUPPORTS DR. WILLI...

        * U.S. Senator Calling For Better Prosthetic......

        * GOP Sen. Lisa Murkowski Supports Gay Marriage...
        * Second GOP Senator Backs Gay Marriage...

        * Rubio.
        * Sunday reads.
        * Mayor Emanuel continues getting cash from firms managing Chicago's pension money
        * Islamic State Mocks US With Photoshopped Santa Held Hostage
        * Islamic State Mocks U.S. With Photoshopped Santa Held Hostage
        * Politically Connected Profit From United Center Parking Scam
        * Ready Aim Fire
        * Havana memories.
        * Walter Esler: “My brother walked from an empty room into a room full of people.”
        * Illinois Policy staff threatened with arrest at union-lead trainings


        * Governor Quinn Appoints Jerry Stermer as Illinois Comptroller
        * Governor Quinn Calls Legislative Special Session - Governor Urges Legislature to Set Up 2016 Special Election for Comptroller
        * Governor Quinn Announces Illinois’ Unemployment Rate Hits New Low - Illinois’ Economic Comeback Continues; Unemployment Rate Falls to Lowest Level in More than Six Years
        * Illinois Ranks #1 in Volunteer Rate Among the Country’s 8 Largest States - 2.57 Million Illinoisans Give $7.2 Billion in Service
        * Law Enforcement, IDOT Make Final Push to Save Lives in 2014, Roadside Safety Checks Planned Over Holidays - New Episode of “The Driving Dead” Premieres Friday as Holiday Travelers are Reminded to Drive Sober and Buckle Up




            Hosted by MCS SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax Advertise Here Mobile Version Contact Rich Miller