image
SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
CapitolFax.com
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
*** UPDATED x1 *** Another poll shows tight race for second place

Wednesday, Jan 16, 2013

* Democratic 2nd Congressional District hopeful Robin Kelly shared her own poll today

Unlike state Sen. Toi Hutchinson’s poll, Kelly’s pollster only asked about the top seven candidates. Actually, they asked about eight candidates, but then David Miller dropped out and they used voters’ “second choice” responses to reallocate his support elsewhere.

The poll of 500 likely voters was conducted by GBA Strategies January 3-7 with a margin of error of +/- 4.4 percent.

Hutchinson’s poll had Halvorson at 16, Hutchinson at 12 and Kelly at 8. Kelly’s poll has the race for second place much closer. Hutchinson’s attempts to push Kelly out or dismiss her to contributors and influencers as an also-ran probably aren’t gonna work, at least for now.

* From the pollster

• Halvorson begins in the lead, but the race is wide open. Congresswoman Halvorson begins the campaign with 25 percent of the electorate in her corner, but her lead is soft. Senator Hutchinson (16 percent) and Kelly (15 percent) follow, with no other candidate getting more than 10 percent. Fifteen percent are purely undecided, but a full 65 percent of voters are either undecided or only softly supporting a candidate.

• Hutchinson and Halvorson share the same base. Both Debbie Halvorson and Toi Hutchinson start with their base of support coming from the same demographic and regional base, especially white voters and voters in the southern portion of the district.

• Kelly starts with a base of support in the suburbs. Robin Kelly currently leads all other candidates among several key groups, including African American women, African Americans in the suburbs and African Americans with a college degree. And Kelly’s support from these pivotal blocs grows during the survey.

• The NRA is extremely unpopular with this electorate. Just 17 percent of likely voters have a favorable impression of the NRA, with 63 percent saying they feel unfavorably towards the pro-gun organization. Kelly’s record of standing up to the NRA and her pledge to reduce gun violence resonates as one of the most powerful reasons to support her.

• Kelly has significant room to grow. Despite having lower name ID than Halvorson or Hutchinson, Kelly starts the race off statistically tied in second place. Once voters—especially voters in the city—hear more about Kelly and the leading candidates’ positions on preventing gun violence, the vote moves dramatically in her favor, pulling her ahead of both Halvorson and Hutchinson.

• Hutchinson/Halvorson’s growth limited by NRA ties. Both other leading candidates find their growth opportunities severely limited by their proud associations with the NRA and the ISRA. Nearly 7-in-10 voters (69 percent) oppose allowing concealed carry in this race. Voters have very serious concerns about Hutchinson’s and Halvorson’s positions on this critical issue.

There’s no doubt that Kelly believes the gun issue is her best path to victory here. She’s also raised more money than any other candidate so far (although not a huge amount more than Hutchinson is claiming).

Discuss.

*** UPDATE *** Speaking of guns…

Kelly Supports Obama Gun Control Initiatives, Calls Out Opponents
Only major candidate with a record of standing up to the NRA

RICHTON PARK, IL— Today, Robin Kelly, Democratic candidate for the Second Congressional District of Illinois, announced her support for the gun violence prevention proposals that President Obama and Vice-President Joe Biden announced this morning.

“I stand with President Obama’s plan to get the dangerous weapons that are killing our neighbors off of the streets,” Robin Kelly said. “The NRA has engaged in desperate smear campaign to stop him, including attacking President Obama’s daughters. We need more voices in Washington willing to stand up to NRA, instead of taking support from them.

“Unlike my opponents Debbie Halvorson and Toi Hutchinson, who both received support from the NRA, I got an F rating and frankly, I could not be more proud. I have the record and resolve to stand with President Obama, Mayor Emanuel, and Cook County Board President Toni Preckwinkle to get dangerous weapons out of our neighborhoods.”

Robin Kelly is the only candidate to have issued a five-point pledge to get assault weapons and high capacity magazines off the streets of Chicago and the Southland, as well as making sure that Illinois’ conceal and carry ban stays in effect. You can read her full pledge at RobinKellyPledge.com.

Robin Kelly is a former state representative, Chief of Staff to the Illinois State Treasurer and Chief Administrative Officer for Cook County under Toni Preckwinkle. But, most importantly, she’s a mother and a community activist who has dedicated her career to fighting for economic opportunity, domestic violence prevention and reasonable common sense gun control laws.

- Posted by Rich Miller        


13 Comments
  1. - VanillaMan - Wednesday, Jan 16, 13 @ 9:56 am:

    Remarkable!
    So Toi’s poll shows her as a winning candidate, and today Kelly’s shows her as a winner!

    Wow!

    But both agree that Former Congresswoman Halvorson in the lead.

    And that is the takeaway…


  2. - The Captain - Wednesday, Jan 16, 13 @ 10:05 am:

    A month ago I would have rather been Harris than anyone else in this race but he gave away his natural advantage, now I’d rather be Robin Kelly. She’s a PhD, has the top ballot spot, raised the most money, has the best record on the gun issue at the forefront of voters minds (other than the economy where there isn’t much difference to separate the candidates) and the opponents ahead of her appear to be bumping up against a ceiling. She’s in the catbird seat.

    The only downside for her is that normally you would expect Halvorson and Hutchinson to beat each other up since they’re competing for the same voters but since they both have the same record on guns they’re not going to do the dirty work for Kelly on that issue, she’ll have to spend the money to do that herself. But she has the money and you can do that with a comparative ad (as opposed to straight negative) and get the job done.

    Things are setting up well for her.


  3. - Six Degrees of Separation - Wednesday, Jan 16, 13 @ 10:09 am:

    Those 17% of NRA favorables (especially if they are strongly opinionated) could cut the other way in a race with this many candidates, too - just sayin’.


  4. - The Captain - Wednesday, Jan 16, 13 @ 10:14 am:

    Except that the two candidates with the best (almost identical) NRA record (Halvorson and Hutchinson) are both viable so no one candidate is going to take the 17% of the NRA vote as a monolithic bloc.


  5. - GA Watcher - Wednesday, Jan 16, 13 @ 10:47 am:

    It’s somewhat refreshing that the three top contenders in this race are women.


  6. - Carl Nyberg - Wednesday, Jan 16, 13 @ 10:49 am:

    I’m kinda surprised to see Halvorson poll so well.

    I voted for Halvorson in the primary based on listening to JJJ at IVI-IPO and talking to a member of Jackson’s staff.

    The stuff Jackson said was obviously untrue to anyone who has ridden Metra Electric. And Jackson’s staff member’s defense of Jackson made me more confident something was not right.

    But I’m not a lock for Halvorson in this race.

    I assume that many of the votes for Halvorson are like me: people who thought the bloom was off the rose with JJJ, but only had weak (or no) loyalties to Halvorson.

    This poll suggests Halvorson brings almost all her primary voters to this election as her base or that JJJ voters have flipped to Halvorson.

    Any JJJ voters that flipped to Halvorson seem likely to be soft enough that when they get more information they might flip again.

    Also, I have a hard time believing that only 15% are undecided. The poll that said 40% undecided feels closer to the truth.


  7. - Knifefighter - Wednesday, Jan 16, 13 @ 10:53 am:

    VanillaMan–

    You’re right that obviously Halvorson is running away with this thing, but I wouldn’t say the Kelly poll shows her as the winning candidate. Like the other poll, it shows her in third. Unlike the other poll story, it doesn’t actually provide numbers about where opinion goes. Smells like a rat to me.


  8. - Carl Nyberg - Wednesday, Jan 16, 13 @ 11:10 am:

    Age at time of election:

    Joyce Washington–60-64
    Mel Reynolds–61
    Robin Kelly–almost 57
    Debbie Halvorson–55
    Anthony Beale–45
    Toi Hutchinson–almost 40
    Napoleon Harris–34

    Remember, it takes six to ten years to build the relations and seniority to get stuff done, although Halvorson would start with an advantage.


  9. - HawkWatcher - Wednesday, Jan 16, 13 @ 11:19 am:

    What kind of bs methodology is this? they poll david miller, but don’t show what the vote is with him in the field? How did they “re-allocate” his vote total? The other two polls conducted show Robin in single digits. And if Robin was ever not in third place during the course of the poll, wouldn’t they have shared that information? Conclusion: robin has no path to victory.


  10. - walkinfool - Wednesday, Jan 16, 13 @ 11:20 am:

    Kelly has demonstrated that she’s in position to take second place. Being highly-connected, and touting a PhD, can lose as many votes as it gains.

    I think Toi has a good chance. Debbie has already hit her high point — it just depends on how much time is left for Toi to catch up.


  11. - Boone Logan Square - Wednesday, Jan 16, 13 @ 2:58 pm:

    Interesting that Kelly’s name recognition is lower even though she won the Democratic primary for treasurer in 2010.

    I still think that ground game could swing this race and won’t be surprised by the winner. (Unless the winner is Mel Reynolds.)


  12. - Lincoln Lad - Wednesday, Jan 16, 13 @ 8:01 pm:

    Nonviable candidates should drop out. Halvorsen slips to 3rd in a 3 candidate race…


  13. - One to the Dome - Thursday, Jan 17, 13 @ 12:33 pm:

    What’s the lead in all demographics? Also, is the district made up of that same demographics? I sort of doubt it.


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


* *** UPDATED x1 *** Kirk blasts Indiana law as "un-American"
* Gay marriage, concealed carry and "right to work"?
* Poll: Illinoisans not wild about fracking
* Only Exelon will Benefit
* Question of the day
* Finally, some coverage
* Is Durbin about to lose his leadership gig?
* Poll shows ten-point lead for Hopkins
* Shenanigans?
* Chicago area powering job growth
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today's edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)
* Governor sets special election dates, but they are expected to change
* Yesterday's blog posts

Support CapitolFax.com
Visit our advertisers...

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............


Search This Blog...

Search the 98th General Assembly By Bill Number
(example: HB0001)

Search the 98th General Assembly By Keyword

          
        * Boulder Dash now has premium version of 30th Anniversary edition
        * Create and control levels in Doodle Adventures
        * File transfer app allows you to send big files, maintain quality
        * Remote Play port to Android updated, Dualshock, NVIDIA SHIELD supported
        * Copy controls what file counts against your storage limit
        * HTC Calendar, Print Studio apps now on the Play Store
        * The Sony Cosmos could actually be the Xperia C4

        * Check Out The Latest Octa-Core Android 4.4 Smartphone From Intex
        * Inside the Cadillac CT6, a Luxury Sedan Game Changer
        * Apple Reportedly Asking Content Producers To Supply Their Own Streams
        * Stolen iPhone Leads A Reporter To Fame And Adventure In China
        * 12-inch MacBook Benchmarks On Par With 2011 MacBook Air
        * The most beautiful, eye-catching cars of New York Auto Show
        * Now This Is How You Build Your Own Computer

        * 'Athletic' Sale makes progress during simulated game
        * 'Athletic' Sale makes progress during simulated game
        * Working on his stuff, Shark not bothered by spring HRs
        * Sox split squad racks up 22 hits, routs Mariners
        * Shark roughed up early in final Cactus start
        * Shark roughed up early by Padres in final Cactus start
        * Sale remains on track for April 12 season debut

        ...............


        Main Menu
        Home
        Illinois
        YouTube
        Pundit rankings
        Obama
        Subscriber Content
        Durbin
        Burris
        Blagojevich Trial
        Advertising
        Updated Posts
        Polls

        Archives
        April 2015
        March 2015
        February 2015
        January 2015
        December 2014
        November 2014
        October 2014
        September 2014
        August 2014
        July 2014
        June 2014
        May 2014
        April 2014
        March 2014
        February 2014
        January 2014
        December 2013
        November 2013
        October 2013
        September 2013
        August 2013
        July 2013
        June 2013
        May 2013
        April 2013
        March 2013
        February 2013
        January 2013
        December 2012
        November 2012
        October 2012
        September 2012
        August 2012
        July 2012
        June 2012
        May 2012
        April 2012
        March 2012
        February 2012
        January 2012
        December 2011
        November 2011
        October 2011
        September 2011
        August 2011
        July 2011
        June 2011
        May 2011
        April 2011
        March 2011
        February 2011
        January 2011
        December 2010
        November 2010
        October 2010
        September 2010
        August 2010
        July 2010
        June 2010
        May 2010
        April 2010
        March 2010
        February 2010
        January 2010
        December 2009
        November 2009
        October 2009
        September 2009
        August 2009
        July 2009
        June 2009
        May 2009
        April 2009
        March 2009
        February 2009
        January 2009
        December 2008
        November 2008
        October 2008
        September 2008
        August 2008
        July 2008
        June 2008
        May 2008
        April 2008
        March 2008
        February 2008
        January 2008
        December 2007
        November 2007
        October 2007
        September 2007
        August 2007
        July 2007
        June 2007
        May 2007
        April 2007
        March 2007
        February 2007
        January 2007
        December 2006
        November 2006
        October 2006
        September 2006
        August 2006
        July 2006
        June 2006
        May 2006
        April 2006
        March 2006
        February 2006
        January 2006
        December 2005
        April 2005
        March 2005
        February 2005
        January 2005
        December 2004
        November 2004
        October 2004

        Blog*Spot Archives
        November 2005
        October 2005
        September 2005
        August 2005
        July 2005
        June 2005
        May 2005

        Syndication

        RSS Feed 2.0
        Comments RSS 2.0
        WordPress

        Loading


        * Barickman hopeful education funding bill will a.....
        * Question of the day..
        * TALKING POINTS: Busy time for state lawmakers..
        * Gay marriage, concealed carry and “right to work”?..
        * Dart: Prison Population Will Jump Because Of Ra.....
        * U of Illinois pushes to finish budget-cuts plan..
        * My View: Radical ideas often become acceptable..
        * There's no debate: Phil Ponce blew it last night..


        * Inmate overpowers guard, escapes from eastern Illinois jail
        * Illinois governor, GOP US senator criticize Indiana law
        * Naked woman found dead in brush near Brooklyn strip clubs
        * US gives threatened status to northern long-eared bat
        * AG seeks to suspend license of Gary funeral home director
        * Lawyers: U of Illinois broke contract with professor
        * Escaped inmate's SUV discovered in Kankakee
        * Judge to rule on free-speech question in Chicago mayor race
        * Escaped Illinois inmate beat guard into unconsciousness
        * Illinois corn acreage projected to decline in 2015

        * Judge hears arguments on attorney fees in state retiree insurance case
        * More heating assistance funds available in Sangamon County
        * Struggle for Durbin's Senate leadership position may loom
        * Rauner, Kirk criticize Indiana religious objections law
        * Illinois gets just 1 bid in online sale of state planes
        * Illinois sees lack of bids in online auction of state planes
        * Rauner schedules special election to replace Schock
        * Duckworth says Clinton must testify on Benghazi, criticizes Kirk for Iran letter
        * Q&A: What happens now that Aaron Schock is out of office?
        * State's school districts adapt to new cyberbullying law

        * To labor activists, McD's minimum-wage play is a few fries short
        * Pricey Easter eggs? Blame old man winter
        * Nation's largest power-grid operator delays key auction
        * To labor activists, McDonald's minimum-wage play is a few fries short
        * Rauner, Kirk criticize Indiana law


          * Suit: Facebook facial recognition technology violates Illinois privacy laws
          * CPS employee charged with sexual abuse
          * Gary funeral director faces suspension over infant remains
          * Large brush fire in Lockport spreads to parking lot, draws other agencies
          * Valparaiso march draws 200 opposed to state's religious freedom law
          * Cops: Authorities still hunting for escaped murderer
          * Mom of biracial man killed by Madison officer trusts prosecutor
          * 1 dead 4 injured in separate shootings across Chicago
          * Money flows from eclectic list of donors in College of DuPage trustee races
          * 2 brothers charged with intimidating cops in case involving 3rd brother


          * Legal expert says Illinois 'got it right' regarding its religious freedom law
          * The legacy of Michael Jordan in Chicago
          * After spending scandals, Rep. Aaron Schock says goodbye
          * Ice stalls Great Lakes shipping season
          * Rauner signs into law compromise plan to fix budget hole
          * Indiana law: Sorting fact from fiction from politics
          * More people moved away from Illinois last year than any other state
          * Indiana pastor doesn’t want changes to 'religious freedom' law
          * Flamin' Hot Cheetos top some Chicago Public School vending machines
          * What to watch for in the final mayoral debate


          * Bernard Schoenburg: Gaps in reporting create campaign spending questions
          * Elizabeth Robb: Eliminate automatic transfer of children to adult court in Illinois
          * Eugene Robinson: Don't make a bad situation worse
          * George Will: The rough math facing Ted Cruz
          * Our Opinion: Theilen, Donelan, Chiles for Springfield wards 8, 9, 10
          * Judge hears arguments on attorney fees in state retiree insurance case
          * More heating assistance funds available in Sangamon County
          * Struggle for Durbin's Senate leadership position may loom
          * Rauner, Kirk criticize Indiana religious objections law
          * Illinois gets just 1 bid in online sale of state planes


          * Fire burns mobile home, threatens woods near East St. Louis
          * Police seeking suspect in Marion purse theft
          * State help possible for US Steel workers in Granite City
          * Former Champaign County Clerk Bing passes away
          * McDonald's: Workers to get pay hikes at company-owned stores
          * Marijuana dispensary planned on US 51 near Anna
          * Eye on Illinois: fixing Illinois' roads
          * Sports Talk 4-1-15
          * Illinois has approved 2,000 medical marijuana patients
          * Speaker Madigan wants $6 million increase to speed up testing of rape kits


          * Carter-Williams leads Bucks to 95-91 victory over Bulls
          * Authorities: Revenge for being called ugly spurs Naperville man to stab two
          * McKissick leads Neuqua Valley to Silver
          * St. Charles East squeezes out win over Fremd
          * Images: Bucks beat Bulls, 95-91

          * US Rep. Randy Hultgren joins bipartisan gr...
          * Crystal Lake manufacturer shows value of f...
          * As Illinois' Common Core Testing Begins, H...
          * Letter: Smarter than fifth-grader? - North...
          * IL Sen. Mark Kirk First Republican to Slam...
          * Dem Rep. On Benghazi Committee: Clinton Em...
          * Congressman Davis Tours Clinton Nuclear Po...
          * SIU campus police announce "Coffee with a ...
          * Republicans propose to freeze Pell grant f...
          * Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest: An old...

          * Sen. Chuck Schumer's path to becoming mino......
          * Mavs beat Thunder 135-131 despite Westbroo......
          * Reid's exit sets off Senate leadership scr......
          * Harden's career-high 51 lead Rockets over ......
          * Serena Williams earns 700th win to reach M......

          * U.S. Sen. Robert Menendez of New Jersey In......
          * Sen. Menendez "Outraged" by Indictment on ......
          * Groups target Cochran and other GOP senato......
          * Illinois Governor, GOP U.S. Senator Critic......
          * GOP Senator Blasts Indiana Law: ‘It’s Not ......

          * “The Driver’s Side” – News From The Motorist’s Perspective
          * Rogers Park Road Rage Incident Caught On Video
          * Challenging the right to work for less in Oswego
          * Report: Chicago Aldermanic Campaigns See Few Donations From Small Donors
          * Report: Chicago Aldermanic Campaigns See Few Small Donations
          * The Future of Our Parties
          * Andrzejewski: Worse Than City Hall--Fighting An 'Instrumentality Of The State'
          * Fight For $15 Movement Calls For 'Fast' From Fast Food Restaurants Over Safety, Wages
          * Garcia Sounds Off On Crime Stats, 'Stop And Frisk' Practices & Housing Issues
          * Chicago Mayoral Runoff 'Too Close To Call', New Poll Shows


          * Don’t Forget Pets When Planning for Disasters - IEMA, local emergency management agencies to focus on pet preparedness throughout April
          * IDHS Prescription Monitoring program helps control prescription drugs abuse in Illinois - Program has more than 26,000 registered users
          * Gov. Rauner File Writs of Special Election
          * Governor Announces Appointments to Illinois Enterprise Zone
          * Illinois Mayors to Celebrate National Service - April 7, 2015 Designated as “Mayors Day of Recognition”




              Hosted by MCS SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax Advertise Here Mobile Version Contact Rich Miller