SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
CapitolFax.com
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
*** UPDATED x1 *** Don’t be too quick to judge

Friday, Feb 22, 2013

* Be really careful when reading these poll results, which are not being read at all carefully elsewhere

Burdened by a wave of murders, dissension over proposed school closings and perhaps his own hard-ball image, Mayor Rahm Emanuel’s job-approval rating has taken a big hit in recent months, according to a new Crain’s/Ipsos Illinois Poll.

Negative attitudes toward the mayor are significantly higher in suburban and downstate areas than in Chicago proper. That may not be surprising, given Mr. Emanuel’s fierce focus on his extensive agenda for Chicago. But there is slippage among city voters, too.

Overall, according to the survey of 600 voting-age Illinois residents, 50 percent say they at least lean toward disapproval of his performance as mayor, versus only 19 percent who somewhat or strongly approve, or lean toward approval. That’s a margin of 31 percentage points. […]

Specifically, just 2 percent of Chicagoans surveyed said they strongly approve of the mayor’s job performance, with 12 percent somewhat approving and 5 percent leaning that way. At the opposite end, 13 percent strongly disapprove, 9 percent somewhat disapprove and 13 percent lean toward disapproval.

* OK, first, this is a poll of residents, not even registered voters.

* Second, while the statewide results may actually be valid, the Chicago subset is just way too small to make any sort of claim about the mayor’s poll ratings.

Chicago’s population is 21 percent of the state’s. So, if the poll was properly balanced, that would mean only about 126 people were polled. That’s a margin of error of about 9 percent.

There’s just no way to make a realistic judgment about a situation based on that small of a polling universe. Period.

* From Crain’s…

The Crain’s/Ipsos poll is a representative survey of voting-age Illinois residents conducted over the Internet. Ipsos validates the sample against offline data sources such as telephone surveys to ensure the accuracy of its weighting. The survey has an accuracy margin of plus or minus 4.7 percentage points statewide, with higher margins in sub-regions, such as Chicago or its suburbs.

Internet polling gets a bad rap, but it is picking up some admirers. Even so, a purely Internet poll is kinda radical.

* A coverage sample…

* Rahm Emanuel: Liked by Few, Loved by Fewer: Labor insiders call the drop in Emanuel’s numbers “horrendous.”

* Poll: Mayor Rahm Emanuel’s approval rating slipping

* Emanuel Struggling With Approval Ratings In IL & City Proper

* Rahm Emanuel Not so Popular Anymore?

* Rahm Emanuel’s allies dismiss negative Internet poll on mayor: John Anzalone, a political pollster who has done work for state Senate Democrats and President Barack Obama, said when Crain’s internet poll last fall showed Emanuel with an approval rating of 37 percent in Chicago, Anzalone’s firm had the mayor at over 52 percent.

*** UPDATE *** I should’ve known to check Drudge. So, with a hat tip to a commenter…

Cue Kass in 3… 2… 1…

- Posted by Rich Miller        


28 Comments
  1. - Steve Bartin - Friday, Feb 22, 13 @ 11:51 am:

    Everyone please re-read what Rich Miller wrote about the poll. Just a reminder, it’s not 600 Chicago residents.


  2. - 47th Ward - Friday, Feb 22, 13 @ 11:52 am:

    Don’t be too quick to Drudge. He’s having a field day with this poll, not because it is necessarily accurate as Rich points out, but because it gives Drudge a chance to zing Emanuel.


  3. - Fair Share - Friday, Feb 22, 13 @ 11:57 am:

    Unlike at the White House, city hall needs to live within its means. He can’t just run the city on a credit card. He needs a more pragmatic approach which he has not found yet. He needs to get rid of the New York police chief and reestablisj the cod special operations division staffed with cops willing to run towards the sounds of gun fire.


  4. - wordslinger - Friday, Feb 22, 13 @ 11:58 am:

    Why such small sample sizes? Just a matter of cost?


  5. - City Worker Anon - Friday, Feb 22, 13 @ 12:08 pm:

    Maybe a dumb question, but even if the poll were more accurate, does it matter? Is there any chance of him getting a real opponent in 2015? The bench in this town is thin, and I can’t think of a single person who’d be able to approach even a fraction of the Mayor’s fundraising abilities.


  6. - Chi - Friday, Feb 22, 13 @ 12:11 pm:

    There was talk in the papers that Preckwinkle may run, FWIW. Back in December when she criticized the Mayor and Chief of Police.


  7. - Plutocrat03 - Friday, Feb 22, 13 @ 12:18 pm:

    So why does anyone care if a non-Chicago resident has an opinion of the Mayor?


  8. - dupage dan - Friday, Feb 22, 13 @ 12:21 pm:

    meh


  9. - Chi - Friday, Feb 22, 13 @ 12:27 pm:

    “So why does anyone care if a non-Chicago resident has an opinion of the Mayor?”

    As eveeryone knows, there’s been speculation the Mayor has aspirations to other offices- Senator and President. I think a scientific poll of non-Chicago Illinois residents would be relevant for the former, but not so much for the latter.

    Chicago Mayors are never popular downstate, are they? But they are usually popular with Democrats nationally, so for Presidential and Mayoral purposes, this unscientific poll of mostly non-residents is fairly worthless.


  10. - Rich Miller - Friday, Feb 22, 13 @ 12:28 pm:

    Chi, they did some other statewide issues polling, so that’s why there was a statewide sample here. Nothing more, nothing less.


  11. - Thomas - Friday, Feb 22, 13 @ 12:34 pm:

    Agreed that this poll is flawed and has little meaning. But I would like to see a real poll on Rahm. My sense is the bloom is off the rose a bit.

    He has a reputation as a get-things-done kinda guy…but he “lost” on the teachers strike, and the school closing battle will be tough to win as well, and the murder-rate hype ain’t going away. He appears to be stumped a bit on the two hottest issues facing Chicagoans right now — schools and crime.

    He’s not a very likable figure, so if he’s not “getting things done,” his approval rating could fall pretty fast.

    If he shakes up his staff soon (like firing McCarthy and bringing in some much needed veterans to the 5th floor,) we’ll know Rahm’s own polling is starting to go south.


  12. - Anonymous - Friday, Feb 22, 13 @ 12:35 pm:

    Mary Ann Ahern got the scoop of the year. Both Tom Blanoff AND Karen Lewis had bad things to say about Rahm? I don’t believe it.


  13. - Crazy Like A Fox - Friday, Feb 22, 13 @ 12:40 pm:

    City worker has it right - this is a non-story because it doesn’t matter.

    If the mayor runs for anything else ever again, it will be President or VP (imagine how much money a Clinton/Emanuel ticket could raise…a guy can dream…).

    Preckwinkle would be committing political suicide if she ran against the Mayor. With all due respect to her, the Mayor has $1.6m on hand as of the last filing compared to Preckwinkle’s $564k.

    No one will be able to take Rahm on any time in the near future and my guess is the powers that be like it that way.


  14. - Thomas - Friday, Feb 22, 13 @ 12:51 pm:

    I wouldn’t be too quick to dismiss Preckwinkle.

    She’s had a pretty good run governmentally — sure, she has a low bar to clear after Todd Stroger. But nonetheless, she has a lot of victories to point to…certainly more than Rahm. Her williness to get involved in every election outside of dog-catcher is a little puzzling to me, but as I said, it’s hard to knock the way she’s run the government.

    Don’t forget that Rahm did stunningly well with African-American voters in 2011. If she ran, Toni takes that away from him. If she puts blacks and labor together, she could give him a real battle, regardless of the fundraising disadvantage she would face.


  15. - Rich Miller - Friday, Feb 22, 13 @ 12:56 pm:

    ===I wouldn’t be too quick to dismiss Preckwinkle. ==

    She sure didn’t do much for Toi.

    Just sayin…


  16. - Will Caskey - Friday, Feb 22, 13 @ 12:59 pm:

    Very bizarre methodology. I don’t remember ever seeing an approval question with very/somewhat/lean distinctions before, only very/somewhat. I’m not sure how relevant the additional layer is.


  17. - qaz - Friday, Feb 22, 13 @ 1:01 pm:

    Not so sure labor is keen on Preckwinkle. She rolled back that quarter cent tax (I’m sure it was crippling the economy to pay a penny more for a Starbucks coffee) and imposed furloughs and staff cuts. And she is making noises about pension cuts. Of course, that’s not to say that she might not be preferable to Rahm.


  18. - Shore - Friday, Feb 22, 13 @ 1:05 pm:

    He’s running around the country blaming the nra for the fact he can’t run his own city. Sometimes there’s way too much protection of the political establishment. Last night’s chicago tonight led with question of “do you think the sentencing of jesse jackson will be too harsh”?

    give us a break.


  19. - Loop Lady - Friday, Feb 22, 13 @ 1:15 pm:

    Rahm is an excellent strategist, pit bull when needed, and fundraiser. These qualities do not necessarily make you a good public servant. His my way or the highway tactics have gone over like a lead balloon. Witness the smackdown given to him by Karen Lewis after he goaded her and her minions into a teacher’s strike.

    The violence issue is not Rahm’s making, but he sure is getting exceedingly bad press around the country because of it.

    When Daley left Da Mare’s office he left his successor one hell of a mess and no cash to work with.


  20. - Skeeter - Friday, Feb 22, 13 @ 1:15 pm:

    Regarding alternatives –

    It sure seems that Waguesapack wants to get into the race. He’s acting like a candidate.

    Other people are rumbling about it too. I don’t see Toni getting in. Her performance is good but not great. She doesn’t appear to be a new face or to promise real change. Plus, she’s backed a bunch of losers so she doesn’t seem particularly strong.

    Another alternative is Brendan Reilly, but he just doesn’t seem like he’s doing much on a city wide scale to raise his profile to take on the mayor.

    While Rahm has a lot of money, that won’t be enough if he continues on the current path. He’s just not producing result. The economy in Chicago still lags the county and the murder rate is high. That’s not exactly a record to run on.

    He needs to shake things up. His top cop needs to go at the very least.

    Expect more alternative to emerge in the next year. Will Burns may be one, but it may be four years early for him.


  21. - Skeeter - Friday, Feb 22, 13 @ 1:18 pm:

    By the way, on very little snow roads were a mess this morning. That’s never a good sign.


  22. - the Patriot - Friday, Feb 22, 13 @ 1:48 pm:

    These polls are useless. So what if the approval is in the tank, you have to find someone to run against him with a better rating.

    Quinn’s is like 32 and if Lisa Madigan does not run, he will be re-elected. Polls only matter when the voters are intelligent enough to translate failed administrations into voting for the other party. In IL, we have drank the cool aid that regardless of how incompetent the leader is, the republican will be worse.

    Under democratic leadership for 10 years we have created the worst state in the nation and what do we do, double down on dems. Polls are irrelevant in IL


  23. - Just The Way It Is One - Friday, Feb 22, 13 @ 2:06 pm:

    It looks like, at least in Chicago, with the substantial number of those who DISapprove of his job FAR outnumbering the opposite that, Rahm may be in trouble–serious trouble with the electorate there (obviously, ala, Re-election bids). People I shoot the breeze with are starting to mutter that he’s really been acting like WAY too much of a Big Shot on the National stage while things keep crumbling around here in his own back yard, where the weeds are growing higher and the grass is NOT being cut often enough to keep the neighbors PLEASED!

    But rest assured that Rahm is so full of himself that he’ll likely brush it off and pay no heed…


  24. - paddyrollingstone - Friday, Feb 22, 13 @ 2:09 pm:

    City Worker Anon -
    Maybe a dumb question, but even if the poll were more accurate, does it matter? Is there any chance of him getting a real opponent in 2015?

    Not dumb questions at all - right on the money. There is no one - no one - to challenge him. He will coast to re-election.


  25. - Anonymous - Friday, Feb 22, 13 @ 2:22 pm:

    If you take a look at the contract resulting from the strike that Karen Lewis “won” Rahm got pretty much everything he was after…longer day, less job security, etc..He might take a little heat for closing schools but being mayor is his as long as he wants it. The murder thing could hurt him a little bit but there’s not much anybody can do about that.


  26. - wordslinger - Friday, Feb 22, 13 @ 2:28 pm:

    –The murder thing could hurt him a little bit but there’s not much anybody can do about that.–

    They seem to be doing something right about the “murder thing” in New York and Los Angeles.


  27. - Thomas - Friday, Feb 22, 13 @ 3:11 pm:

    Rich, I agree Preckwinkle looks bad in the wake of Toi’s collapse — that’s why I questioned her involvement in various political races in my post above. Don’t know what the hell she gets out of that.

    Just trying to make the point that if you peel black voters away from Rahm he’s got problems in ‘15. Can’t beat him with black voters alone, though. Preckwinkle could probably fight him to a draw on the Lakefront…but can she win cops, fireman and other city workers — a decent size chunk of voters who want to vote against Rahm? I’d say no.


  28. - Anonimo - Friday, Feb 22, 13 @ 3:20 pm:

    Michelle Obama 2015!


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


* Tomorrow's news today
* Oddities and ends
* Durbin launches second positive ad
* *** UPDATED x3 - Full Rauner response - Rauner issues statement - Quinn responds *** Question of the day
* Black radio ad slams Rauner for failure to hire a single African-American at company
* Today's chart
* *** UPDATED x1 - Quinn responds *** Rauner unveils ethics reform plan
* Today's number: 30 percent less likely
* Bigfooted by the Trib
* *** UPDATED x1 - Bustos responds *** Schilling ad attacks Bustos over budget cuts
* *** UPDATED x1 *** SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Supplement to today’s edition: Crosstabs, TV ads, cable TV buys and an events list
* Quinn moves to second negative track
* Rate Bruce Rauner's new TV ad: "100 years of failure"
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today's edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)
* Yesterday's blog posts

Support CapitolFax.com
Visit our advertisers...

...............

...............


Search This Blog...

Search the 98th General Assembly By Bill Number
(example: HB0001)

Search the 98th General Assembly By Keyword

          
        * Sony forecasts quadruple losses due to smartphone business
        * Samsung Galaxy Note 4 sales to begin a little early
        * HTC delivers new imaging features in latest Gallery update
        * Beach Buggy Racing has 12 tracks and multiple karts to choose
        * OnePlus scraps further plans for One StyleSwap covers
        * Memoir Debuts A “Predictive” Photo-Sharing App For iOS 8
        * Spacecom review: A rousing game of strategy between a bunch of triangles

        * Office Gadgets to Make Workdays Fun Again
        * Journalism school shuts down its print newspaper, will publish everything on Medium
        * New iOS 8 Keyboard Translates Your Text Into Emojis
        * Bug Delays Launch of Apps Using Apple’s HealthKit in iOS 8
        * “It’s Like an iPad!” Real People — Not Tech Reviewers — Hold iPhone 6 and 6 Plus.
        * Sudden Management Shift as Hampton Creek Seeks to Raise $50M on a $300M to $400M Valuation From Vy Capital, Others
        * SwiftKey Brings Swipe-to-Type and Predictive Text to iOS 8

        * Following up: Adam Eaton's second half, Chris Sale's schedule
        * Gillaspie, White Sox solve Royals' bullpen
        * White Sox 7, Royals 5: Kansas City bullpen titans falter
        * Sale seeks another stellar start in KC, series win
        * Gillaspie, White Sox solve Royals' bullpen
        * Out call on Viciedo confirmed on replay
        * High hopes, no set plan for Konerko's remaining ABs


        Main Menu
        Home
        Illinois
        YouTube
        Pundit rankings
        Obama
        Subscriber Content
        Durbin
        Burris
        Blagojevich Trial
        Advertising
        Updated Posts
        Polls

        Archives
        September 2014
        August 2014
        July 2014
        June 2014
        May 2014
        April 2014
        March 2014
        February 2014
        January 2014
        December 2013
        November 2013
        October 2013
        September 2013
        August 2013
        July 2013
        June 2013
        May 2013
        April 2013
        March 2013
        February 2013
        January 2013
        December 2012
        November 2012
        October 2012
        September 2012
        August 2012
        July 2012
        June 2012
        May 2012
        April 2012
        March 2012
        February 2012
        January 2012
        December 2011
        November 2011
        October 2011
        September 2011
        August 2011
        July 2011
        June 2011
        May 2011
        April 2011
        March 2011
        February 2011
        January 2011
        December 2010
        November 2010
        October 2010
        September 2010
        August 2010
        July 2010
        June 2010
        May 2010
        April 2010
        March 2010
        February 2010
        January 2010
        December 2009
        November 2009
        October 2009
        September 2009
        August 2009
        July 2009
        June 2009
        May 2009
        April 2009
        March 2009
        February 2009
        January 2009
        December 2008
        November 2008
        October 2008
        September 2008
        August 2008
        July 2008
        June 2008
        May 2008
        April 2008
        March 2008
        February 2008
        January 2008
        December 2007
        November 2007
        October 2007
        September 2007
        August 2007
        July 2007
        June 2007
        May 2007
        April 2007
        March 2007
        February 2007
        January 2007
        December 2006
        November 2006
        October 2006
        September 2006
        August 2006
        July 2006
        June 2006
        May 2006
        April 2006
        March 2006
        February 2006
        January 2006
        December 2005
        April 2005
        March 2005
        February 2005
        January 2005
        December 2004
        November 2004
        October 2004

        Blog*Spot Archives
        November 2005
        October 2005
        September 2005
        August 2005
        July 2005
        June 2005
        May 2005

        Syndication

        RSS Feed 2.0
        Comments RSS 2.0
        WordPress

        Loading


        * Gov. Quinn announces aluminum company locating .....
        * Quinn, Rauner ads focus on corruption..
        * Quinn blasts NFL owners with dig at GOP opponent..
        * Rauner Would've Vetoed Medical Marijuana Bill..
        * GOP appeal seeks to knock Libertarian off ballot..
        * Local party leaders ‘confident’ about November .....


        * Warrant: SC dad feared 5 slain kids would kill him
        * Peoria forgoes search, promotes interim cop chief
        * Woman gets prison sentence in 5-year-old's death
        * Emanuel wants no more signs as large as Trump's
        * Herbicides indirectly kill fish in Manteno lake
        * GOP appeal seeks to knock Libertarian off ballot
        * Rauner ethics plan targets lobbyists, lawmakers
        * Ex-deputy gets 50 years prison in child sex case
        * Hundreds apply for jobs at Illinois Thomson prison
        * Beanie Babies creator's sentence debated in court

        * White to focus on technology, highway safety in fifth term
        * Quinn blasts NFL owners with dig at Rauner
        * GOP appeal seeks to knock Libertarian gubernatorial candidate off ballot
        * Rauner’s ethics reform plan targets lobbyists, lawmakers
        * Hundreds apply for jobs at northern Illinois federal prison
        * Rauner questions medical marijuana program secrecy
        * New subpoena issued for Quinn’s anti-violence program
        * Evans: Eliminate conflicts of interest in legislature
        * State legislative panel delays decision on fracking rules
        * Quinn: Monitor not needed to oversee state hiring

        * Old Second CEO retires after 42-year bank career
        * Leo Burnett, WPP lose Miller Lite ad account to TBWA
        * Pizza Hut testing 'skinny slice'
        * Photos: Pizza Hut testing 'skinny slice'
        * New U of I med school gets faculty green light


        * Trump happy over Emanuel crackdown on signs
        * Zimbabwean president wants to testify for Chicago businessman, lawyer says
        * HITTING A CHILD IS ALWAYS WRONG
        * 16-year-old is second person charged in fatal home invasion
        * Appeals court to decide if Beanie Baby billionaire got off easy
        * River ordinance is sign of good taste
        * Highland Park woman sentenced to five years for running over, killing 5-year-old girl
        * Emanuel wants last word in sign war with Trump
        * Highland Park teen to be sentenced for running over, killing 5-year-old girl


        * TSA chief: Nearly half of U.S. air travelers going through expedited security
        * 3 wounded in city shootings
        * Chicago Public Schools' personnel chief steps down
        * Third person arrested in fatal shooting of retired police sergeant
        * 5 years in 'huffing' crash that killed girl, 5
        * Rauner, Quinn ramp up ethics barbs in Illinois governor race
        * Prosecutors: Woman smothered over shoes, money
        * After 'awful' Trump Tower sign, mayor proposes restrictions along Chicago River
        * Chicago officer's widow sues over fatal Calumet Park police chase
        * Ex-sheriff's deputy gets 50 years in child sex abuse case


        * I Like Illinois Website Debuts, In Time For The Election
        * Cullerton: I LIKE Illinois!
        * Trauma Care Decision Highlights Competition Between Springfield Hospitals
        * Springfield Art Co-Op Founder "Blossoms" On East Coast
        * Springfield Mayor Houston Points Out Sewer Improvements
        * Mayor: We Are Doing Sewer Work
        * N.J. Gov. Christie Stumps For Rauner In Springfield
        * Fracking Rules Action Delayed; Could Be A Sign Of Revision
        * Who Owns The Rights To Vivian Maier's Photos?
        * Legislature Approved A $100 Million Tax On Business & Didn't Know It


        * White to focus on technology, highway safety in fifth term
        * Quinn blasts NFL owners with dig at Rauner
        * GOP appeal seeks to knock Libertarian gubernatorial candidate off ballot
        * Rauner’s ethics reform plan targets lobbyists, lawmakers
        * Hundreds apply for jobs at northern Illinois federal prison
        * Our Opinion: Carbon monoxide alarms belong in schools
        * Rauner questions medical marijuana program secrecy
        * New subpoena issued for Quinn’s anti-violence program
        * Evans: Eliminate conflicts of interest in legislature
        * Michael Gerson: Leading from behind the curve


        * Herrin man gets six years for criminal damage
        * Heartland balances budget despite drop in enrollment hours
        * Group expressing interest in becoming medical marijuana sites
        * UI professor: MacArthur award 'completely blindsided me'
        * I-80 bridge at LeClaire closed in both directions
        * Updated: Driver's facility to reopen Tuesday, with limits; property management disputes state claim
        * Johnson County Junque Jamboree comes to Vienna Saturday
        * Coroner: Smoking and home oxygen machines led to deaths
        * SAR gives awards to paramedic, sheriff
        * 09-17-14 News-Gazette Prep Sports Podcast


        * FSU benches Winston for 1st half of Clemson game
        * Sugar Grove man gets 7 years for cemetery thefts
        * Injured Marlins star Stanton finished for season
        * Panthers remove DE Greg Hardy from active roster
        * Fed signals plan to keep key rate at record low

        * Patrick Cannon defense strategy rare but n...
        * Feds fine Jesse Jackson Jr.'s campaign com...
        * Jesse Jackson Jr. political fund fined nea...
        * Jackson Jr.'s political fund fined nearly ...
        * 'Celebrity Crime Files' Season Three, With...
        * Ex-Congressman Jesse Jackson Jr. faces sen...
        * Shimkus Discusses Presidential Policies - ...
        * Hultgren, Roskam to Host Service Academy D...
        * Shimkus not taking election for granted - ...
        * At a glance: How metro-east residents vote...

        * Senator Durbin Applauds Decision to Raise ......
        * Senator Durbin Applauds Decision to Raise ......
        * Senator Durbin Applauds Decision to Raise ......
        * Dems Give Business a Thorny Embrace...
        * Dems Give Business a Thorny Embrace...

        * Shangri La's Barr al Jissah ResortSpa to o......
        * ISIS fight: Congress to vote on arming Syr......

        * Neil Steinberg compares opposition to Israeli policies and campus rape.
        * Richard Skoda’s dreams.
        * S.O.R.E. field trip. Town Hall with Senators Biss and Manar on school funding, Special Needs.
        * Learning Disabilities Association (LDA) of Illinois opposes SB16.
        * Chicago’s Marshall High School and Zombie education reform.
        * California public pension funds to hedge fund managers: “Drop dead.”
        * Leadership.
        * Hooray for cartoonists.
        * Biss and Manar want schools to make do with less. SB16.
        * Susan Sadlowski-Garza.


        * Rauner Launches New TV Ad: 100 Years
        * 100 Years
        * Bruce Rauner Announces Ethics Blueprint
        * Across Illinois, They’re Talking About Pat Quinn’s Corruption
        * New subpoena in federal probe of Quinn anti-violence grant program




            Hosted by MCS SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax Advertise Here Mobile Version Contact Rich Miller