SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
CapitolFax.com
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
Red ink as far as the eye can see

Wednesday, Jan 8, 2014

* The governor’s budget office has posted its new three-year projection as required by law. Here’s the projection for revenue losses due to the expiration of the temporary income tax hike. These are fiscal years and the first line is for personal income tax receipts and the second line is for corporate receipts…

* Without changing any state laws or programs, GOMB is projecting a $1.9 billion deficit in FY 2015, $4.1 billion by 2016 and $4.6 billion by 2017. And the state’s bill backlog is projected to grow to $16.2 billion by the end of FY 2017.

The budget office’s spending projections (which you can see here) use existing law with existing programs, and calculate savings from the pension reform bill in FY 16 and 17. So, they’re projecting increases all around. But those increases won’t exist without those income tax revenues.

* From Voices for Illinois Children…

According to GOMB projections, revenue losses due to the scheduled decrease in income tax rates will lead to budget shortfalls of $1.9 billion in fiscal year 2015 (which begins in July 2014), $4.1 billion in FY 2016, and $4.6 billion in FY 2017. Closing gaps of this magnitude would require draconian cuts to programs and services that are essential for the well-being of children, families, and communities across Illinois.

The state’s investments in early childhood education, K-12 education, and higher education — which have eroded over the past five years — would be significantly undermined. Programs such as child care assistance, afterschool programs, child protection services, and a wide range of community-based services for families, people with disabilities, and seniors would be in serious jeopardy.

* From the Senate Republicans

Because the major portion of the 2011 tax hike is set to expire automatically, the budget office was required to assume that the state will lose those dollars. The drop in that revenue coupled with the anticipated spending growth has the potential to create the largest deficits the state has ever seen.

The figures released by the Governor’s office clearly reveal that without a decrease in spending, the state will be forced to choose between higher taxes and massive deficits. Ever since the tax hike was imposed during a lame-duck legislative session in 2011, Senate Republicans have warned that significant spending reductions were needed to allow for the tax increase to expire as promised.

The projections from Quinn’s budget office reveal the Governor plans to continue to increase state spending regardless of whether or not the state has any money.

Not quite. The projections, as explained above, were put together using existing laws and programs.

- Posted by Rich Miller        


40 Comments
  1. - wordslinger - Wednesday, Jan 8, 14 @ 2:38 pm:

    Any time the Senate GOP wants to put together a one-page budget summary of spending and revenues based on the tax increases expiring, by all means, go for it.


  2. - RNUG - Wednesday, Jan 8, 14 @ 2:39 pm:

    No surprise to the people here. The only question is whether a tax continuation or increase will be an issue in the general election or will be left for the next governor to deal with.


  3. - Demoralized - Wednesday, Jan 8, 14 @ 2:40 pm:

    Looking forward to the Senate Republican plan on how to cut $4 billion from the budget. Of course I’m assuming they will go with the refrain that Republicans usually go with which is that it’s not our problem and the Democrats need to solve it. Either offer a solution or shut up.


  4. - Formerly Known As... - Wednesday, Jan 8, 14 @ 2:47 pm:

    Nothing to worry about, since we so judiciously used the increase in funds during the “temporary” tax hike to help get our ship in order.

    We knew these extra funds were exactly that - “extra” - and wouldn’t last forever, since we designed it as such. Thus, we used those funds well to help get things back on stable footing, exactly as was planned and promised from the beginning.

    Right… right? #gulp


  5. - Walter Mitty - Wednesday, Jan 8, 14 @ 2:47 pm:

    I am curious to see if the Farmer capitalizes on this. Meaning, more than saying ” See the insiders did this.” If he can lay out ideas that close the deficit, he stands to continue the referendum rhetoric. My hope is someone will. My guess nobody will.


  6. - Anon - Wednesday, Jan 8, 14 @ 2:57 pm:

    Speaker Madigan created this problem by putting in the sunset clause, instead of making the 2010 hike a permanent increase in revenues that the state clearly needed. No one seriously expected the state to grow or to cut its way to a balanced budget, not even Leader Radogno.


  7. - drew - Wednesday, Jan 8, 14 @ 3:13 pm:

    I’m reading that post from the Senate Republicans, but I’m having trouble finding the part where they spell out an itemized list of the $4 bn of excess spending that should be cut.


  8. - Bogart - Wednesday, Jan 8, 14 @ 3:14 pm:

    It’s the Illinois “Sequester”. The GA’s mistake was not putting in automatic across the board program cuts tied to the roll back of the tax increase. The good news, however, is that this should make it obvious to the Supremes that they must uphold the pension reforms.


  9. - dupage dan - Wednesday, Jan 8, 14 @ 3:14 pm:

    I could see Rauner railing against this problem and promising to cut the “waste, fraud and abuse” to balance the budget. If he wins, I can see him coming to the electorate and telling us that now that he is in office, he sees what is really happening and supporting making the tax permanent.

    Unless, that is, he decides to act differently than so many other candidates who get schooled upon taking office.

    There is nothing new here. Only those in total denial would see this differently. Other candidates who promise to allow the temp tax to expire may have different solutions but will likely come to the same conclusion if elected. Same old same old.


  10. - Bogart - Wednesday, Jan 8, 14 @ 3:16 pm:

    Further, it’s the Party in Power that should propose the cuts.


  11. - Rich Miller - Wednesday, Jan 8, 14 @ 3:17 pm:

    ===it’s the Party in Power that should propose the cuts. ===

    Actually, the SGOPs did propose a menu of cuts in 2012 and the Dems used that list to whack the living tar outta their candidates.


  12. - RNUG - Wednesday, Jan 8, 14 @ 3:25 pm:

    Bogart - Wednesday, Jan 8, 14 @ 3:16 pm:

    Actually, it doesn’t.

    As the IL SC made clear in Jorgenson v Blagojevich (2004):

    “No principle of law permits us to suspend constitutional requirements for economic reasons, no matter how compelling those reasons may seem.”


  13. - PublicServant - Wednesday, Jan 8, 14 @ 3:28 pm:

    The reality is and always was that there is a structural revenue shortfall causing the fiscal problems here in Illinois. Why not look at the CTBA plan that will lower current income taxes for 94% of Illinois taxpayers?


  14. - Bogart - Wednesday, Jan 8, 14 @ 3:35 pm:

    When the “compelling reasons become reality”, I trust the court will act to save the State.


  15. - RNUG - Wednesday, Jan 8, 14 @ 3:42 pm:

    PublicServant - Wednesday, Jan 8, 14 @ 3:28 pm:

    I agree. It makes a lot of sense.

    The problem with the CTBA progressive income tax plan is it requires a Constitutional Amendment that must be approved by the GA, and then approved by the voters. To get the approval of the voters it will have to be sold … and I don’t see anyone who could sell it. Where is the Adlai Stevenson or Richard Ogilvie or Jim Thompson that could take it and run with it?

    The solution I joked about last year could be implemented just by the GA: raise the flat income tax rate really high and exempt the first $100K or $150K on income. At that level, you could even do a “fairness reform” and tax pension / Social Security income. The down side to such a proposal is it would also increase the corporate tax rate, so there may need to be a new exemption there also.


  16. - PublicServant - Wednesday, Jan 8, 14 @ 3:44 pm:

    And wait, wasn’t the line “Cut pensions or you’ll have to cut education and welfare.”? So, since the pension gut has occurred, then there’s no problem right? Oops, reality rears its ugly head again.


  17. - PublicServant - Wednesday, Jan 8, 14 @ 3:48 pm:

    @RNUG - If your plan would accomplish the elimination of the structural revenue deficit by taxing marginal income over a certain amount, then I could support that. Oh, and when will the pension lawsuits begin to be heard? Any news on that RNUG?


  18. - RNUG - Wednesday, Jan 8, 14 @ 4:01 pm:

    I don’t expect the pension lawsuits to be fast tracked any time soon. Right now there is a holding pattern of sorts while everyone waits to see how many suits get filed. Then you will probably see them all get consolidated into one action but it’s possible, given the different classes, several could move forward. How it moves from there will depends on the arguments made. Remember, we are still waiting for a ruling on the “Maag” that was fast tracked.

    I was a bit disappointed reading the TRS suit filed in Cook County because it pretty much ignored the underlying contract law issues and concentrated on making the “pension clause” claim. I really want to read the RSEA suit filed here in Sangamon County but haven’t found an online copy. I’ve been sick and haven’t gotten out to get a copy of the paperwork from the courthouse.


  19. - Rich Miller - Wednesday, Jan 8, 14 @ 4:05 pm:

    RNUG, I emailed you a copy of the RSEA suit.


  20. - Charlie Wheeler - Wednesday, Jan 8, 14 @ 4:08 pm:

    Point of Information:

    Section 3(a) of Article IX of the Illinois Constitution says in relevant part: “In any such (income) tax imposed upon corporations the rate shall not exceed the rate imposed on individuals by more than a ratio of 8 to 5.”

    That would suggest that the General Assembly and the governor could increase the individual income tax rate to whatever level they chose, with no legal requirement to enact a similar increase in the corporate income tax rate.


  21. - walker - Wednesday, Jan 8, 14 @ 4:14 pm:

    Charlie: yes, and that was one of the options initially evaluated. mark


  22. - Formerly Known As... - Wednesday, Jan 8, 14 @ 4:24 pm:

    Besides, Gov. Quinn told me this was supposed to simply be a 1% “education surcharge”. And we gave him double!

    Our schools are now flush with cash. Just wait until you see their balance sheets!

    Right… right? #gulp


  23. - Norseman - Wednesday, Jan 8, 14 @ 4:36 pm:

    Snark alert

    Perhaps if we someone who can craft a really really compelling preamble, maybe the GA can pass a graduated tax that will convince the Supreme Court to disregard another portion of the Illinois Constitution.


  24. - Rich Miller - Wednesday, Jan 8, 14 @ 4:39 pm:

    Good snark, Norseman.


  25. - PublicServant - Wednesday, Jan 8, 14 @ 4:51 pm:

    Maybe even a preamble to a preamble, or is that preramble?


  26. - a drop in - Wednesday, Jan 8, 14 @ 4:51 pm:

    Everybody will be campaigning on the income tax sunset depending on whatever party they represent. In 2015 whomever wins will look at the tax revenue Colorado generates on pot and start drooling.


  27. - Liberty First - Wednesday, Jan 8, 14 @ 5:03 pm:

    RNUG - the teachers suit your referring too didn’t include contracts (I would imagine) because they are not a union organization but a professional organization. I understand the various groups have been in touch with each other. The various teachers unions suits will follow.


  28. - Soccermom - Wednesday, Jan 8, 14 @ 5:11 pm:

    Wait. i thought that reducing taxes increases revenues. It’s magic!


  29. - RNUG - Wednesday, Jan 8, 14 @ 5:23 pm:

    Rich,

    Thanks. Saves me making some county clerk sick.


  30. - RNUG - Wednesday, Jan 8, 14 @ 5:27 pm:

    Liberty First - Wednesday, Jan 8, 14 @ 5:03 pm:

    Unions have nothing to do with whether or not it was a contract.

    It has to do with the offer of employment with certain terms (which may have varied in some things like salary and job protection from person to person) and the individual acceptance of those terms.


  31. - Anon - Wednesday, Jan 8, 14 @ 5:37 pm:

    Does any informed person doubt the State is chronically short of revenue to pay its bills, even though it´s a low-spending state?


  32. - Fed up - Wednesday, Jan 8, 14 @ 6:20 pm:

    Well the cracking money needs to start rolling in. Maybe someone will pull “soy boy” aside amd explain a Chicago casino with some video poker machines at midway and Ohare( think of the revenue from stranded flyers this week ) would enrich the state tresurary. Legalize and tax pot, and write a legal Internet sales tax bill. New York was able too. After all that a bake sale( after pot Is legal) at Gov mansion it’s not being used for anything.


  33. - William Place - Thursday, Jan 9, 14 @ 12:44 am:

    I believe the States “investment in lower education’ has been producing a huge negative return for decades. What is it they say about insanity, doing the same thing over and over while expecting a different result?


  34. - PublicServant - Thursday, Jan 9, 14 @ 5:47 am:

    @William Place - Did you run out of room to tell us about your proposal to rectify the situation, or are you just driving by bud?


  35. - PublicServant - Thursday, Jan 9, 14 @ 5:50 am:

    @FedUp - Your suggestions for new revenue sources seem to hit the poor and middle class where none of the wealth has gone these last 30 years. Follow the money pal, and raise the new revenue from those whose income has been growing by leaps and bounds while the rest of up have been left to pick up the scraps. Your suggestions seem to go after the scraps too. Nice.


  36. - Pacman - Thursday, Jan 9, 14 @ 6:28 am:

    Thanks RNUG for pointing out the contractual issue as it relates to pensions. I’m not a legal beagle, but I would think the contract argument is as compelling an argument as the constitutional aspect. Both seem to go hand in hand as the constitution refers to pensions as an “enforceable contractual relationship.”


  37. - wordslinger - Thursday, Jan 9, 14 @ 6:46 am:

    –believe the States “investment in lower education’ has been producing a huge negative return for decades. What is it they say about insanity, doing the same thing over and over while expecting a different result?–

    What do you say about crazy people who think the world would be better off without schools?


  38. - wordslinger - Thursday, Jan 9, 14 @ 9:49 am:

    –This has nothing to do with no schools,–

    Quit showing off that “excellent public education.”


  39. - William Place - Thursday, Jan 9, 14 @ 9:59 am:

    Interesting how my response has been redacted. wordslinger, that was snotty, I used no invective to you.


  40. - William Place - Thursday, Jan 9, 14 @ 10:02 am:

    I must have stepped on some union toes!


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


* Reader comments closed for the weekend
* *** UPDATED x1 *** The dirty little secrets about Facebook video views
* Life on a ledge
* Question of the day
* Our totally inspiring and uplifting US Senate race
* Trump piles on Chicago, but he may want to ask his running mate about Indiana
* Don't hold your breath
* More ugliness
* Today's number: $105,733
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Supplement to today’s edition, fundraiser list and a campaign roundup
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today's edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)
* Yesterday's blog posts

Support CapitolFax.com
Visit our advertisers...

...............

...............

...............
<


Search This Blog...

Search the 98th General Assembly By Bill Number
(example: HB0001)

Search the 98th General Assembly By Keyword

  
* Try Allo yet? Over 1 million people already have
* LG U+ could team up with US, Chinese, Japanese carriers to build LTE networks globally
* Do not drill a headphone jack into your iPhone 7
* MediaTek launches Helio X30, P20, P25 chipsets
* Android-Chrome merger may be previewed at Pixel event
* Oculus faces developer backlash over founder’s politics
* The hopes and headaches of Snapchat’s glasses

* White Sox mourn loss of superstar Fernandez
* Frazier hits HR, Quintana solid in Sox win
* Amid struggles, Sox close in on milestones
* Frazier hits HR, Quintana solid in Sox win
* Rodon hopes to derail Indians in finale
* Eaton jolted after slamming into wall
* Pitching for Team USA in WBC intrigues Sale

...............


Main Menu
Home
Illinois
YouTube
Pundit rankings
Obama
Subscriber Content
Durbin
Burris
Blagojevich Trial
Advertising
Updated Posts
Polls

Archives
September 2016
August 2016
July 2016
June 2016
May 2016
April 2016
March 2016
February 2016
January 2016
December 2015
November 2015
October 2015
September 2015
August 2015
July 2015
June 2015
May 2015
April 2015
March 2015
February 2015
January 2015
December 2014
November 2014
October 2014
September 2014
August 2014
July 2014
June 2014
May 2014
April 2014
March 2014
February 2014
January 2014
December 2013
November 2013
October 2013
September 2013
August 2013
July 2013
June 2013
May 2013
April 2013
March 2013
February 2013
January 2013
December 2012
November 2012
October 2012
September 2012
August 2012
July 2012
June 2012
May 2012
April 2012
March 2012
February 2012
January 2012
December 2011
November 2011
October 2011
September 2011
August 2011
July 2011
June 2011
May 2011
April 2011
March 2011
February 2011
January 2011
December 2010
November 2010
October 2010
September 2010
August 2010
July 2010
June 2010
May 2010
April 2010
March 2010
February 2010
January 2010
December 2009
November 2009
October 2009
September 2009
August 2009
July 2009
June 2009
May 2009
April 2009
March 2009
February 2009
January 2009
December 2008
November 2008
October 2008
September 2008
August 2008
July 2008
June 2008
May 2008
April 2008
March 2008
February 2008
January 2008
December 2007
November 2007
October 2007
September 2007
August 2007
July 2007
June 2007
May 2007
April 2007
March 2007
February 2007
January 2007
December 2006
November 2006
October 2006
September 2006
August 2006
July 2006
June 2006
May 2006
April 2006
March 2006
February 2006
January 2006
December 2005
April 2005
March 2005
February 2005
January 2005
December 2004
November 2004
October 2004

Blog*Spot Archives
November 2005
October 2005
September 2005
August 2005
July 2005
June 2005
May 2005

Syndication

RSS Feed 2.0
Comments RSS 2.0
WordPress

Loading


* Rock Valley College racks up $21K in legal fees.....
* The Sunday Spin: Politics with Rick Pearson Ful.....
* Education funding lawsuits may show what's ahea.....
* Chuck Sweeny: We need to standardize marijuana .....
* Study says video gaming has generated about $78.....


* Police: 5 shot, 1 dead, after fight at Illinois campus party
* Audits fail to mention $280,000 in credit card spending
* Doctors 'prescribe' fresh produce with help from food banks
* US agency says Exxon tries to dodge blame for Arkansas leak
* Parolee charged with killing 2 Chicago men earlier this year
* Police: 5 shot, 1 dead, after fight at Illinois campus party
* EXCHANGE: Deputies in right place to save life of woman
* EXCHANGE: Roselle family calls safe haven mothers 'angels'
* Iowa State president damaged school plane on personal trip
* Illinois man arrested in kidnapping of teenager and baby

* Planning underway locally for Illinois' 200th birthday
* Attack on state senator leads to arrest of murder suspects
* Illinois Supreme Court overturns law allowing 6-member juries
* Local unemployment of 4.6 percent still lowest in state
* Elderly frozen-treat seller gets $380,000 from GoFundMe page
* Creation of Amish history museum in central Illinois underway
* Privately funded Executive Mansion work will follow traditional wage, bidding rules
* 'Memorandum of agreement' outlines restoration rules for Executive Mansion work
* Gov. Rauner uses Facebook Live to announce bicentennial plans
* Environmental groups push for lead testing of water in schools

* How Presence Health cracked the code on telehealth
* Merz Apothecary at your door within hours
* Where did the bankruptcy wave hit hardest?
* Seven years after selling the Cubs to the Ricketts family, Tribune's tax battle is in extra innings
* Meet the Dems' chief weapon against remap reform: Michael Kasper


* Rodon’s eight scoreless innings carry White Sox past Indians
* Jane Pauley to succeed Charles Osgood as ‘Sunday Morning’ anchor
* Dwyane Wade’s honesty is welcomed with the start of Bulls camp
* In ‘City of Conversation,’ a key to our political polarization
* Notre Dame fires defensive coordinator after 1-3 start
* Man shot in Woodlawn shows up at hospital
* Man shot in leg in Englewood
* Washington mall shooting suspect ‘zombie-like’ at arrest: police
* 24-year-old woman killed in Wadsworth crash
* White Sox stunned, saddened by Jose Fernandez’s tragic death


* Windsor school 'tasting menu' a big hit with students
* Marlins ace Jose Fernandez killed in boating accident
* Chief: 2 firefighters suffered minor injuries in Barraco's fire
* LINDA C. BLACK HOROSCOPES for 9/25/16
* Corbyn victory leaves little resolved for U.K. Labour Party
* Authorities search for clues in Washington mall shooting
* Notre Dame coach Brian Kelly fires defensive coordinator Brian VanGorder
* Residents evacuate Cedar Rapids homes ahead of flooding
* Still no will, but work to settle Prince estate forges ahead
* Jann Wenner to sell 49% of Rolling Stone to Singapore's BandLab


The widget AQL4JYGHIY powered by Feed Informer does not exist.


* Bernard Schoenburg: Interesting twists in Troemper-Reid circuit judge race
* Statehouse Insider: Do you remember where you were during Rauner's Facebook Live session?
* Compass for Kids supports at-risk children
* Innovate Springfield gives boost to new businesses
* Eric Zarnikow: Aid changes mean students should act now
* Planning underway locally for Illinois' 200th birthday
* Attack on state senator leads to arrest of murder suspects
* Illinois Supreme Court overturns law allowing 6-member juries
* Local unemployment of 4.6 percent still lowest in state
* Bernard Schoenburg: Policy institute criticized for secrecy in Madigan project


* Cooler temperatures in forecast for final week of September
* UPDATE: Bystander killed in on-campus shooting
* U High names homecoming royals
* Divorces
* Campus Shooting
* Witness to shootings: 'No one knew what was going on'
* Your share of Illinois’ debt: Simply write a check for… how much?
* Education funding lawsuits may show what’s ahead for Illinois
* Getting Personal: Eric Snodgrass
* Bystander killed in on-campus shooting


* Former teacher: Mundelein man shot to death "stood out"
* Sky slows McCoughtry in 2nd half to advance to WNBA semis
* Miami Marlins ace Jose Fernandez dies in boating accident
* Q&A: A mortgage exec reflects on housing market's challenges
* Gas prices up 4 cents to $2.25 a gallon

* House lawmakers overcome hurdle on key tra...
* Rodney Davis talks funding with Bloomingto...
* The agency that fought Illiana gets a new ...
* Rep. Dold takes educational cruise down Ch...
* Lawmakers decry high turnover rate of VA h...
* CBD Oil, and politics
* Simon considering state Senate bid
* Killer Congressman Tom MacArthur trying to...
* Shutdown? State may not notice
* Rep. Bob Dold

* Illinois/Wisconsin briefs - Dubuque Telegr......

* Senators Introduce Legislation Aimed at Bo......

* Blues people (an art project).
* The passive voice.
* “If we have learned anything about dealing with politicians is that they will look for any crack to take what is ours.”
* John Dillon on re-districting reform.
* Stop-and-frisk.
* Sunday chowdah.
* Rumdum
* Putting A Fresh Face On The Uptown Theater
* Attempted Hold-Up Of American Metro Bank On Friday
* "A Taste Of Uptown" Is Coming In October


* IDOT Hiring in Preparation of Winter Weather - Temporary help needed to assist with snow-and-ice removal, public urged to apply
* Illinois Department of Insurance Reminds ‘Land of Lincoln Health’ Customers to Enroll In New Coverage - The deadline for ‘Land of Lincoln Health’ customers to enroll in a new plan is September 30, 2016; Consumers could experience a gap in health care cove
* Governor Rauner Celebrates Illinois’ Hunting Heritage on National Hunting and Fishing Day
* Governor Signs Executive Order Creating New Illinois Bicentennial Commission
* State of Illinois Announces Online Enrollment Platform for Group Insurance Programs - MyBenefits Marketplace continues Illinois’ digital transformation, improves state employee experience




      Hosted by MCS SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax Advertise Here Mobile Version Contact Rich Miller