SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
CapitolFax.com
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
Fun with numbers

Wednesday, Aug 27, 2014

* Paul Vallas released a report today on what could happen to individual school district funding if the income tax hike is rolled back all at once

He says if Rauner rolled back the income-tax increase, public schools would see a $4 billion-a-year loss in state revenue. That’s because the income tax increase brings in $8 billion a year and education makes up half of the discretionary part of the budget. […]

Rauner campaign spokesman Mike Schrimpf says the numbers Vallas uses “are just made up.”

He says even though Quinn raised the tax 67 percent in 2011, he cut school spending by $500 million. He says Rauner will “fully fund our schools.”

OK, they’re both wrong. Rauner has recently said he’d gradually roll back the tax hike, not do it all at once. [ADDiNG: The release, which I didn’t get, acknowledged the roll back, but there likely will be some revenue gains over the years and other budget priorities could come into play, so to state categorically that it’s a $4 billion cut isn’t quite Kosher] And Schrimpf is obviously making up numbers because there’s no way Rauner can avoid cutting school funding if that tax hike is rolled back over four years. Unless, of course, he wants to start skipping pension payments again.

By the way, back in the day, George Ryan removed state pension payments from the definition of state school funding. That, in retrospect, was a big mistake. You can’t have schools without teachers, and you can’t have teachers without pensions. If you include pension funding, spending on education has, indeed, increased.

…Adding… From the IFT…

In response to an analysis of Bruce Rauner’s funding plan for education released by Governor Pat Quinn today, Illinois Federation of Teachers (IFT) President Dan Montgomery noted that Rauner’s approach completely ignores the most critical issue of school underfunding.

“Bruce Rauner’s so-called budget was not designed with students in mind,” said Dan Montgomery, President of the IFT and a high school English teacher for eighteen years. “Unsurprisingly, he claims to support working families, but his plan fails to address the fact that Illinois schools are some of the worst funded in the nation. Aside from his empty, feel-good TV commercials, he has no explanation or problem with blowing an $8-billion dollar hole in the state budget and forcing layoffs, larger class sizes, and devastating cuts to our public schools. Strong schools begin with strong investment, and Rauner’s proposals would decimate public education as we know it and force communities to raise property taxes just to keep the doors open.

“As educators, we know best what students need and parents want – high-quality neighborhood schools with libraries, support services, and experienced teachers who are fixtures in the communities they serve. The only candidate committed to these families is Governor Quinn.”

- Posted by Rich Miller        


23 Comments
  1. - How Ironic - Wednesday, Aug 27, 14 @ 1:20 pm:

    I call BS on Schrimpf. Per the Rauner email yesterday begging for money it took Bruce “all day” to crunch the numbers for the $422,000 ad buy request. How’d he recrunch all the Quinn numbers so fast?


  2. - Demoralized - Wednesday, Aug 27, 14 @ 1:21 pm:

    The numbers are sort of made up because we wouldn’t know exactly what the reduction in ISBE’s approp would be, but you can imagine it would be substantial. Schools are going to lose a boatload of money. There is no denying that. To do so is being completely ignorant.


  3. - JS Mill - Wednesday, Aug 27, 14 @ 1:22 pm:

    Vallas is likely closer to the truth on this issue than the Rauner camp.State aid payments have been reduced by 5%, 11%, 11%, and 10% over the past four years. A decrease of $4.5 billion in funding will have a major impact. We also continue to see a reduction in mandated categorical like transportation costs. These are real numbers not magic beans. Unless Rauner buys the mint funding will be reduced dramatically.

    With regard to pension payments, recently I sat in on a presentation by Eric Madair, Cullerton’s cheif legal council and the Illinois Senate Parliamentarian. Based on a study he did his claim is that the pensions system (TRS) is better funded today, as a percentage of obligations, than it was in 1970 when the constitution was written. I thought that information was surprising.


  4. - Formerly Known As... - Wednesday, Aug 27, 14 @ 1:26 pm:

    Is this anything like the warnings of what would happen to education funding without a 1% “education surcharge”? It feels like we’ve seen this movie before, roughly 4 years ago.

    And does anyone have much confidence either of these gentlemen are going to do anything other than try to scare you about the other guy while failing to offer innovative plans of their own?


  5. - Demoralized - Wednesday, Aug 27, 14 @ 1:28 pm:

    @FKA:

    Come on. Even you know that a multi-billion dollar reduction in revenue is going to come with severe budgetary consequences. It’s scary because it’s true.


  6. - DuPage - Wednesday, Aug 27, 14 @ 1:29 pm:

    Rauner has little control over the tax without the legislature approving it. It will be interesting to see what happens if the tax is not extended.


  7. - AlabamaShake - Wednesday, Aug 27, 14 @ 1:54 pm:

    Look - if Rauner wants to claim that the numbers are made up, and that he can actually increase funding to education while decreasing revenue, he should actually release a budget that would do this.

    I’d love to see the magic math he has to use to make it work.


  8. - How Ironic - Wednesday, Aug 27, 14 @ 1:55 pm:

    @Dupage,

    If Rauner wins, rest assured the tax will NOT be extended. No way Quinn would even dream of helping Rauner during lame duck session. The legislature will want plenty (read all) GOP participation. That’ll give the Norquist wanna be’s a serious migrane.


  9. - wordslinger - Wednesday, Aug 27, 14 @ 2:18 pm:

    –He says Rauner will “fully fund our schools.”–

    Whoa, that sounds big, a real game-changer in how Illinois does business.

    Can Shrimp explain what Rauner means by that: “fully fund our schools?”

    How much will that cost? A ballpark figure will do.

    Where will that money come from? I’m guessing it will cost a lot to “fully fund our schools.”

    If you put that out there, surely you must have a plan to “fully fund our schools.”

    Or maybe Shrimp is just a cheap hack phoning it in, not even understanding what he’s saying.


  10. - the Patriot - Wednesday, Aug 27, 14 @ 2:21 pm:

    I like Vallas, but he assumes Rauner will have the same stagnant economic growth as Quinn. The entire point of Rauner is that he knows how to create business and make money. The guy has always made money. So Vallas assumes that for the first time in his life, Rauner will fail the economics as bad or worse than Quinn. I don’t see that happening.

    The crush on Rauner is he will be terrible for social issues, and hard on public sector unions. But assume he can’t do better with the economy than Quinn. Really?


  11. - Anon - Wednesday, Aug 27, 14 @ 2:27 pm:

    WORD When Shrimp promised “full funding,” I doubt he was talking about the official level set by EFAB as adequate funding. I predict he won’t define what he means.

    HOW It wouldn’t be the first time that IL legislators who took the Norquist pledge to never vote for any tax or fee hike broke their word. Most Republicans, for example, voted to fund the capital plan in 2009 and that required raising several small taxes and fees.


  12. - Demoralized - Wednesday, Aug 27, 14 @ 2:36 pm:

    @the Patriot:

    A phase out or elimination of the current tax rates is going to have a huge impact on the budget. Even if what you believe is true the revenue from “growth” isn’t going to make up for that loss anytime soon.


  13. - JS Mill - Wednesday, Aug 27, 14 @ 2:40 pm:

    @Patriot- making money for youyrself and a small group of investors is very different than growing jobs at the state level. There is also that pesky legislative process, (MJM aside) the state is not ruled by decree. It is a different ballgame when you want to make a change that is not supported by any one of the powerful special interest groups. Those waters are more difficult to navigate.


  14. - AlabamaShake - Wednesday, Aug 27, 14 @ 2:42 pm:

    ** he assumes Rauner will have the same stagnant economic growth as Quinn.**

    Have you even looked at Rauner’s growth assumptions? They are insane, and totally unreachable.

    **The entire point of Rauner is that he knows how to create business and make money. The guy has always made money.**

    There is a huge difference between making money as a hedge fund guy - essentially buying up assets, starving them for profit, then throwing the assets away - and growing a state’s economy.

    And Rauner’s budget proposals are a complete joke. They:
    a) don’t actually have workable or real numbers, and
    b) will require significant reductions in the state budget (harming the state economy), and
    c) claim to be able to increase funding in significant ways (increasing education funding, keeping SODCs open, etc) while cutting revenue.

    The economic growth simply cannot be big enough to make Rauner’s plan work.


  15. - Formerly Known As... - Wednesday, Aug 27, 14 @ 2:43 pm:

    @Demoralized - it is scary and it is true. Neither “plan” is worth the paper it is printed on.


  16. - walker - Wednesday, Aug 27, 14 @ 2:43 pm:

    The Rauner team will “fully fund our schools,” right about the time they “freeze your property taxes.”

    What is amazing to me is how all the local Republican mayors and park and school district officials around the state haven’t criticized Rauner over this.

    They must assume neither will ever happen.


  17. - How Ironic - Wednesday, Aug 27, 14 @ 2:52 pm:

    Well, technically if Rauner cuts school funding by 50% then ‘fully funds’ the remaining appropriation I guess he’s fufilling his promise of ‘fully funding’ schools.


  18. - A guy... - Wednesday, Aug 27, 14 @ 3:17 pm:

    ===“As educators, we know best what students need and parents want – high-quality neighborhood schools with libraries, support services, and experienced teachers who are fixtures in the communities they serve. The only candidate committed to these families is Governor Quinn.”===

    Here, Montgomery goes a paragraph too far. Everything in this paragraph is wrong. When he says “we know…”, it highlights the arrogance that school parents are sick of. If the IFT would propose some real ’student=centric’ solutions instead of their constant drumbeat of false platitudes about their commitment- which isn’t evident to many school parents- they might arrive somewhere. If you’re not part of a solution, a solution will be handed down to you. They don’t get it. They’ve never gotten it. And whatever sympathy they’ve engendered has run out or at the very least is close to empty.


  19. - Jimmy - Wednesday, Aug 27, 14 @ 3:17 pm:

    Rauner can’t roll back the tax gradually. He will need to ask the legislature for a tax increase once the temporary tax expires as the legislature has intended. Anything over the 3% will be a Rauner/Republican tax hike.


  20. - Chris - Wednesday, Aug 27, 14 @ 3:22 pm:

    “Even you know that a multi-billion dollar reduction in revenue is going to come with severe budgetary consequences”

    A multi-billion dollar INCREASE in revenue came with severe budgetary consequences for education under Quinn.

    And Quinn’s approved policy (he signed the GD budget) *right now* for a multi-billion dollar reduction in revenue. So will he zero out education?

    Every day, PQ’s campaign rhetoric takes me closer to hold my nose (really, really hard) and pulling the lever for Rauner.


  21. - Demoralized - Wednesday, Aug 27, 14 @ 4:23 pm:

    @Chris:

    Yeah, it did, because the increase was needed just for us to keep our heads above water and not to increase spending on education. We aren’t talking about zeroing out education, but we are talking about significant cuts. This isn’t campaign rhetoric. It’s reality. And those that can’t see it’s reality have no clue about math or the budget.


  22. - steve schnorf - Wednesday, Aug 27, 14 @ 11:22 pm:

    Chris, the budget Quinn signed didn’t reduce our state revenues, it reflected the decreased revenues that result from the GA’s refusal to extend the current tax rate, which Quinn didn’t sign (there was nothing to sign) and he opposed letting the current rate expire


  23. - Yellow Dog Democrat - Thursday, Aug 28, 14 @ 7:28 am:

    Paul Vallas is a smart guy.

    Who wrote his presentation?

    The public can usually only remember one number. Three tops.

    In my opinion, they buried the most important numbers.


TrackBack URI

Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


* "RNUG" looks ahead
* Budgetary war-gaming leads to panic
* Wild tales flourishing
* Good morning!
* Yesterday's blog posts

Support CapitolFax.com
Visit our advertisers...

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............


Search This Blog...

Search the 98th General Assembly By Bill Number
(example: HB0001)

Search the 98th General Assembly By Keyword

          
        * Ebay Now Pulled From App Store As Company Rethinks Its Same-Day Delivery Plans
        * Motorola updates Camera and Gallery apps with Material Design
        * Samsung Ponders Executive Shakeup As Galaxy S5 Sales Fall 40% Short Of Expectations
        * T-Mobile hypes virtually pristine version of the Nexus 6
        * How to get rid of unwanted subscribed calendars
        * Apple’s iPhone 6 Sales Drive App Downloads Sky-High In October
        * World of Warcraft turns ten: 10 unforgettable moments from WoW's first decade

        * Make Your Chores Suck Less with the LEGO Principle
        * Get Extra Airline Miles by Buying Flowers, Satellite TV, and More
        * NUZii Smart Life Is A Self-learning Home Automation And Cloud Storage System (video)
        * T-Band Smart Strap Transforms Andy Watch Into Smart Watch (video)
        * Gawker Bill Cosby Is "America's Greatest Serial Rapist": Another Woman Speaks | Gizmodo The U.S.
        * Put Clutter in a Box with An Expiration Date
        * Pinc Turns Your iPhone 6 Into A VR Headset

        * Addition of Adam LaRoche could be a slow burner for hot stove season
        * Terrerobytes: Waiting for Adam LaRoche
        * With LaRoche on board, Abreu will benefit
        * Sources: White Sox land LaRoche with two-year deal
        * Sources: White Sox land LaRoche with two-year deal
        * Sources: White Sox land LaRoche with two-year deal
        * Abreu will benefit from LaRoche's presence

        ...............


        Main Menu
        Home
        Illinois
        YouTube
        Pundit rankings
        Obama
        Subscriber Content
        Durbin
        Burris
        Blagojevich Trial
        Advertising
        Updated Posts
        Polls

        Archives
        November 2014
        October 2014
        September 2014
        August 2014
        July 2014
        June 2014
        May 2014
        April 2014
        March 2014
        February 2014
        January 2014
        December 2013
        November 2013
        October 2013
        September 2013
        August 2013
        July 2013
        June 2013
        May 2013
        April 2013
        March 2013
        February 2013
        January 2013
        December 2012
        November 2012
        October 2012
        September 2012
        August 2012
        July 2012
        June 2012
        May 2012
        April 2012
        March 2012
        February 2012
        January 2012
        December 2011
        November 2011
        October 2011
        September 2011
        August 2011
        July 2011
        June 2011
        May 2011
        April 2011
        March 2011
        February 2011
        January 2011
        December 2010
        November 2010
        October 2010
        September 2010
        August 2010
        July 2010
        June 2010
        May 2010
        April 2010
        March 2010
        February 2010
        January 2010
        December 2009
        November 2009
        October 2009
        September 2009
        August 2009
        July 2009
        June 2009
        May 2009
        April 2009
        March 2009
        February 2009
        January 2009
        December 2008
        November 2008
        October 2008
        September 2008
        August 2008
        July 2008
        June 2008
        May 2008
        April 2008
        March 2008
        February 2008
        January 2008
        December 2007
        November 2007
        October 2007
        September 2007
        August 2007
        July 2007
        June 2007
        May 2007
        April 2007
        March 2007
        February 2007
        January 2007
        December 2006
        November 2006
        October 2006
        September 2006
        August 2006
        July 2006
        June 2006
        May 2006
        April 2006
        March 2006
        February 2006
        January 2006
        December 2005
        April 2005
        March 2005
        February 2005
        January 2005
        December 2004
        November 2004
        October 2004

        Blog*Spot Archives
        November 2005
        October 2005
        September 2005
        August 2005
        July 2005
        June 2005
        May 2005

        Syndication

        RSS Feed 2.0
        Comments RSS 2.0
        WordPress

        Loading


        * Illinois universities warned of 'dire' budget cuts..
        * Republicans can make headway with blacks..
        * Gov. Quinn could collect healthy pension on way.....
        * Deadline to file for mayor's race Monday..


        * FAA probing plane's emergency Illinois landing
        * Illinois universities warned of 'dire' budget cuts
        * Monday last day to file to run for Chicago mayor
        * 8.3M vehicle on Illinois Tollway this Thanksgiving
        * Waukegan looking for Ray Bradbury statue ideas
        * US judge to sentence reputed drug-lord lieutenant
        * Church members each get $500 to do good for world
        * Some 30 horses die in stable fire outside Chicago
        * 2 hospitalized after Chicago building collapse
        * Judge denies bid to halt Illinois fracking rules

        * Rauner tackles transition agenda
        * Attorney general warns of immigration scams
        * State pension changes ruled unconstitutional; appeal to Illinois Supreme Court next
        * State to refund $60 million in retiree health care money
        * State pension changes ruled unconstitutional; appeal to Illinois Supreme Court likely
        * Illinois pension case likely headed to high court
        * Judge: Pension ruling to come Friday
        * Rauner mum on fixes for ‘dire’ state finances, wants Quinn to freeze hiring
        * Rauner mum on fixes for ‘dire’ state finances
        * Judge to hear pension law arguments today

        * Guess which day Illinois roads will be most packed this Thanksgiving
        * Here's how Chicago church members are spending their $500
        * Obama's Chicago visit tomorrow will focus on immigration order
        * Chicago's neon signs shine in new book
        * AndroGel giving AbbVie performance anxiety


        * Obama announcing at 10 am Chicago time Hagel resignation
        * Obama announcing at 10:10 am Chicago time Hagel resignation
        * Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel stepping down: sources
        * Obama guidance & press schedule Nov. 24, 2014. Medal of Freedom
        * Father Bob Botthof, teacher who became priest after losing wife, dies at 85
        * Simple GOP remedy: Enact immigration reform
        * Jarrett: Obama honored Boehner's request on immigration
        * Rauner, Brooks hand out turkeys and trimmings
        * Garcia says he has 60,000 signatures for mayoral run
        * After aid papers are forged, city colleges repay $4 million


        * Chicago scientist's Nobel medal for DNA discovery could fetch $3.5M
        * Mayoral candidate petition deadline Monday
        * Cause of building collapse that injured 2 women under investigation
        * Most stop-for-pedestrian signs hit by drivers, city data show
        * Up to 3 inches of snow today as temperatures drop
        * Ferguson grand jury expected to resume deliberations Monday
        * Feds: 6 plotted to beat restaurant worker to collect $40,000 debt
        * Man, 70, dies after his car hits pole in Ashburn
        * 3 men, boy hurt in separate shootings
        * 2 injured in hit and run crash on Dan Ryan


        * WUIS/SJ-R Business Report: Transmission Line Meetings Planned; More Space For Senior Living
        * Part Timers & Manufacturing in Illinois Feeling a Slow Economic Recovery
        * Photographer Kari Bedford Puts "Girls In Focus"
        * Midwest Travel: Starved Rock In The Winter
        * Ears Turn To Supreme Court For Next Pensions Cue
        * Listen to State Week - November 21, 2014
        * State To Refund Retiree Health Care Money
        * Labor unions celebrate judge's ruling against Illinois pension law
        * Judge Finds Reductions In Pension Benefits Unconstitutional
        * Pension Ruling Imminent


        * Quote of the Day: Nov. 24, 2014
        * Our Opinion: Illiana project too risky for tapped-out Illinois
        * Bernard Schoenburg: Sen. Manar backs aide Watson over Cahnman, Proctor in Ward 5
        * Karen Cox: Shop for a cause
        * Andy Shaw: Protect Illinois’ FOIA law from unnecessary tinkering
        * Quote of the Day: Sunday, Nov. 23, 2014
        * Rauner tackles transition agenda
        * Attorney general warns of immigration scams
        * Deckle McLean: Plagiarism comes with a price
        * Charles Krauthammer: The climate pact swindle


        * This week In Illini History: Happy 32nd, Luther Head
        * SIU officials won't disclose statuses of arrested students
        * Daily business briefing: 3 phones give you more bang for your buck
        * Thanksgiving closings in Decatur
        * 8.3 million vehicle on Illinois Tollway this Thanksgiving
        * Communities to host Thanksgiving dinners
        * Illinois Treasurer-elect Mike Frerichs 11/24/2014
        * Snow coming down, but shouldn't be more than 1 inch
        * Fatal shootings at 2 St. Louis County bars
        * Snow in forecasts to begin holiday week


        * ‘Today' looks to rebound from tough week
        * IHOP owner's need for growth sets up quest for pizza
        * Arrest made in northern Indiana stabbing death
        * Wisconsin college student due in court on ricin possession
        * Two hospitalized after Chicago building collapse

        * Roskam, Deutch Introduce Stop SCAMS Act - ...
        * Joe Montana scores with empty Candlestick ...
        * Local members of Congress react to Preside...
        * Veteran guest speaker shares brain injury ...
        * Images: Tammy Duckworth's 2006 6th Congres...
        * Jon Stewart Slams “Politically Craven” Nan...
        * The future and impact of the Rock Island A...
        * Kirk the Jerk is scared of Tammy Duckworth...
        * Peter Roskam Defeats Michael Mason In Illi...
        * Local lawmakers weigh-in on president’s im...

        * Durbin Releases Statement On EPA Decision ......
        * Supreme Court Decision Could Impact Illinois...

        * Jackson: Menendez prods Obama over ISIS...
        * As deadline nears for Iran nuclear talks, ......

        * SportsMonday: Trestman Outruns Lovie In Ugly Bowl
        * Illinois congressional delegation reacts to Obama executive order
        * Five Guantanamo Bay prisoners released
        * Illinois Watchdog Radio - Live on IR
        * Rep. Schock receives 2014 Lewis-Houghton Leadership Award
        * Common Core: How We Got Here and Where We Are Headed [video]
        * Hughes: Choosing to Succeed
        * Indianapolis Star deems Gary Varvel's Thanksgiving cartoon "racist"
        * Fees Paid To Rahm Emanuel Donor Firm Increased After Emanuel Became Mayor
        * SNL's updated version of "Schoolhouse Rock" [video]


        * Illinois Residents Asked to Put the Tobacco Down - Support the Great American Smokeout – November 20
        * Governor Quinn Statement on President Obama’s Executive Action
        * Governor Quinn Statement on Selection of New University of Illinois President
        * Governor Quinn Statement on Senate Committee Passage of Minimum Wage Legislation
        * Governor Quinn Statement on the Installation of Archbishop Blase Cupich




            Hosted by MCS SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax Advertise Here Mobile Version Contact Rich Miller