Capitol Fax.com - Your Illinois News Radar » Fun with numbers
SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
CapitolFax.com
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
Fun with numbers

Wednesday, Aug 27, 2014

* Paul Vallas released a report today on what could happen to individual school district funding if the income tax hike is rolled back all at once

He says if Rauner rolled back the income-tax increase, public schools would see a $4 billion-a-year loss in state revenue. That’s because the income tax increase brings in $8 billion a year and education makes up half of the discretionary part of the budget. […]

Rauner campaign spokesman Mike Schrimpf says the numbers Vallas uses “are just made up.”

He says even though Quinn raised the tax 67 percent in 2011, he cut school spending by $500 million. He says Rauner will “fully fund our schools.”

OK, they’re both wrong. Rauner has recently said he’d gradually roll back the tax hike, not do it all at once. [ADDiNG: The release, which I didn’t get, acknowledged the roll back, but there likely will be some revenue gains over the years and other budget priorities could come into play, so to state categorically that it’s a $4 billion cut isn’t quite Kosher] And Schrimpf is obviously making up numbers because there’s no way Rauner can avoid cutting school funding if that tax hike is rolled back over four years. Unless, of course, he wants to start skipping pension payments again.

By the way, back in the day, George Ryan removed state pension payments from the definition of state school funding. That, in retrospect, was a big mistake. You can’t have schools without teachers, and you can’t have teachers without pensions. If you include pension funding, spending on education has, indeed, increased.

…Adding… From the IFT…

In response to an analysis of Bruce Rauner’s funding plan for education released by Governor Pat Quinn today, Illinois Federation of Teachers (IFT) President Dan Montgomery noted that Rauner’s approach completely ignores the most critical issue of school underfunding.

“Bruce Rauner’s so-called budget was not designed with students in mind,” said Dan Montgomery, President of the IFT and a high school English teacher for eighteen years. “Unsurprisingly, he claims to support working families, but his plan fails to address the fact that Illinois schools are some of the worst funded in the nation. Aside from his empty, feel-good TV commercials, he has no explanation or problem with blowing an $8-billion dollar hole in the state budget and forcing layoffs, larger class sizes, and devastating cuts to our public schools. Strong schools begin with strong investment, and Rauner’s proposals would decimate public education as we know it and force communities to raise property taxes just to keep the doors open.

“As educators, we know best what students need and parents want – high-quality neighborhood schools with libraries, support services, and experienced teachers who are fixtures in the communities they serve. The only candidate committed to these families is Governor Quinn.”

- Posted by Rich Miller        

23 Comments
  1. - How Ironic - Wednesday, Aug 27, 14 @ 1:20 pm:

    I call BS on Schrimpf. Per the Rauner email yesterday begging for money it took Bruce “all day” to crunch the numbers for the $422,000 ad buy request. How’d he recrunch all the Quinn numbers so fast?


  2. - Demoralized - Wednesday, Aug 27, 14 @ 1:21 pm:

    The numbers are sort of made up because we wouldn’t know exactly what the reduction in ISBE’s approp would be, but you can imagine it would be substantial. Schools are going to lose a boatload of money. There is no denying that. To do so is being completely ignorant.


  3. - JS Mill - Wednesday, Aug 27, 14 @ 1:22 pm:

    Vallas is likely closer to the truth on this issue than the Rauner camp.State aid payments have been reduced by 5%, 11%, 11%, and 10% over the past four years. A decrease of $4.5 billion in funding will have a major impact. We also continue to see a reduction in mandated categorical like transportation costs. These are real numbers not magic beans. Unless Rauner buys the mint funding will be reduced dramatically.

    With regard to pension payments, recently I sat in on a presentation by Eric Madair, Cullerton’s cheif legal council and the Illinois Senate Parliamentarian. Based on a study he did his claim is that the pensions system (TRS) is better funded today, as a percentage of obligations, than it was in 1970 when the constitution was written. I thought that information was surprising.


  4. - Formerly Known As... - Wednesday, Aug 27, 14 @ 1:26 pm:

    Is this anything like the warnings of what would happen to education funding without a 1% “education surcharge”? It feels like we’ve seen this movie before, roughly 4 years ago.

    And does anyone have much confidence either of these gentlemen are going to do anything other than try to scare you about the other guy while failing to offer innovative plans of their own?


  5. - Demoralized - Wednesday, Aug 27, 14 @ 1:28 pm:

    @FKA:

    Come on. Even you know that a multi-billion dollar reduction in revenue is going to come with severe budgetary consequences. It’s scary because it’s true.


  6. - DuPage - Wednesday, Aug 27, 14 @ 1:29 pm:

    Rauner has little control over the tax without the legislature approving it. It will be interesting to see what happens if the tax is not extended.


  7. - AlabamaShake - Wednesday, Aug 27, 14 @ 1:54 pm:

    Look - if Rauner wants to claim that the numbers are made up, and that he can actually increase funding to education while decreasing revenue, he should actually release a budget that would do this.

    I’d love to see the magic math he has to use to make it work.


  8. - How Ironic - Wednesday, Aug 27, 14 @ 1:55 pm:

    @Dupage,

    If Rauner wins, rest assured the tax will NOT be extended. No way Quinn would even dream of helping Rauner during lame duck session. The legislature will want plenty (read all) GOP participation. That’ll give the Norquist wanna be’s a serious migrane.


  9. - wordslinger - Wednesday, Aug 27, 14 @ 2:18 pm:

    –He says Rauner will “fully fund our schools.”–

    Whoa, that sounds big, a real game-changer in how Illinois does business.

    Can Shrimp explain what Rauner means by that: “fully fund our schools?”

    How much will that cost? A ballpark figure will do.

    Where will that money come from? I’m guessing it will cost a lot to “fully fund our schools.”

    If you put that out there, surely you must have a plan to “fully fund our schools.”

    Or maybe Shrimp is just a cheap hack phoning it in, not even understanding what he’s saying.


  10. - the Patriot - Wednesday, Aug 27, 14 @ 2:21 pm:

    I like Vallas, but he assumes Rauner will have the same stagnant economic growth as Quinn. The entire point of Rauner is that he knows how to create business and make money. The guy has always made money. So Vallas assumes that for the first time in his life, Rauner will fail the economics as bad or worse than Quinn. I don’t see that happening.

    The crush on Rauner is he will be terrible for social issues, and hard on public sector unions. But assume he can’t do better with the economy than Quinn. Really?


  11. - Anon - Wednesday, Aug 27, 14 @ 2:27 pm:

    WORD When Shrimp promised “full funding,” I doubt he was talking about the official level set by EFAB as adequate funding. I predict he won’t define what he means.

    HOW It wouldn’t be the first time that IL legislators who took the Norquist pledge to never vote for any tax or fee hike broke their word. Most Republicans, for example, voted to fund the capital plan in 2009 and that required raising several small taxes and fees.


  12. - Demoralized - Wednesday, Aug 27, 14 @ 2:36 pm:

    @the Patriot:

    A phase out or elimination of the current tax rates is going to have a huge impact on the budget. Even if what you believe is true the revenue from “growth” isn’t going to make up for that loss anytime soon.


  13. - JS Mill - Wednesday, Aug 27, 14 @ 2:40 pm:

    @Patriot- making money for youyrself and a small group of investors is very different than growing jobs at the state level. There is also that pesky legislative process, (MJM aside) the state is not ruled by decree. It is a different ballgame when you want to make a change that is not supported by any one of the powerful special interest groups. Those waters are more difficult to navigate.


  14. - AlabamaShake - Wednesday, Aug 27, 14 @ 2:42 pm:

    ** he assumes Rauner will have the same stagnant economic growth as Quinn.**

    Have you even looked at Rauner’s growth assumptions? They are insane, and totally unreachable.

    **The entire point of Rauner is that he knows how to create business and make money. The guy has always made money.**

    There is a huge difference between making money as a hedge fund guy - essentially buying up assets, starving them for profit, then throwing the assets away - and growing a state’s economy.

    And Rauner’s budget proposals are a complete joke. They:
    a) don’t actually have workable or real numbers, and
    b) will require significant reductions in the state budget (harming the state economy), and
    c) claim to be able to increase funding in significant ways (increasing education funding, keeping SODCs open, etc) while cutting revenue.

    The economic growth simply cannot be big enough to make Rauner’s plan work.


  15. - Formerly Known As... - Wednesday, Aug 27, 14 @ 2:43 pm:

    @Demoralized - it is scary and it is true. Neither “plan” is worth the paper it is printed on.


  16. - walker - Wednesday, Aug 27, 14 @ 2:43 pm:

    The Rauner team will “fully fund our schools,” right about the time they “freeze your property taxes.”

    What is amazing to me is how all the local Republican mayors and park and school district officials around the state haven’t criticized Rauner over this.

    They must assume neither will ever happen.


  17. - How Ironic - Wednesday, Aug 27, 14 @ 2:52 pm:

    Well, technically if Rauner cuts school funding by 50% then ‘fully funds’ the remaining appropriation I guess he’s fufilling his promise of ‘fully funding’ schools.


  18. - A guy... - Wednesday, Aug 27, 14 @ 3:17 pm:

    ===“As educators, we know best what students need and parents want – high-quality neighborhood schools with libraries, support services, and experienced teachers who are fixtures in the communities they serve. The only candidate committed to these families is Governor Quinn.”===

    Here, Montgomery goes a paragraph too far. Everything in this paragraph is wrong. When he says “we know…”, it highlights the arrogance that school parents are sick of. If the IFT would propose some real ’student=centric’ solutions instead of their constant drumbeat of false platitudes about their commitment- which isn’t evident to many school parents- they might arrive somewhere. If you’re not part of a solution, a solution will be handed down to you. They don’t get it. They’ve never gotten it. And whatever sympathy they’ve engendered has run out or at the very least is close to empty.


  19. - Jimmy - Wednesday, Aug 27, 14 @ 3:17 pm:

    Rauner can’t roll back the tax gradually. He will need to ask the legislature for a tax increase once the temporary tax expires as the legislature has intended. Anything over the 3% will be a Rauner/Republican tax hike.


  20. - Chris - Wednesday, Aug 27, 14 @ 3:22 pm:

    “Even you know that a multi-billion dollar reduction in revenue is going to come with severe budgetary consequences”

    A multi-billion dollar INCREASE in revenue came with severe budgetary consequences for education under Quinn.

    And Quinn’s approved policy (he signed the GD budget) *right now* for a multi-billion dollar reduction in revenue. So will he zero out education?

    Every day, PQ’s campaign rhetoric takes me closer to hold my nose (really, really hard) and pulling the lever for Rauner.


  21. - Demoralized - Wednesday, Aug 27, 14 @ 4:23 pm:

    @Chris:

    Yeah, it did, because the increase was needed just for us to keep our heads above water and not to increase spending on education. We aren’t talking about zeroing out education, but we are talking about significant cuts. This isn’t campaign rhetoric. It’s reality. And those that can’t see it’s reality have no clue about math or the budget.


  22. - steve schnorf - Wednesday, Aug 27, 14 @ 11:22 pm:

    Chris, the budget Quinn signed didn’t reduce our state revenues, it reflected the decreased revenues that result from the GA’s refusal to extend the current tax rate, which Quinn didn’t sign (there was nothing to sign) and he opposed letting the current rate expire


  23. - Yellow Dog Democrat - Thursday, Aug 28, 14 @ 7:28 am:

    Paul Vallas is a smart guy.

    Who wrote his presentation?

    The public can usually only remember one number. Three tops.

    In my opinion, they buried the most important numbers.


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


* Reader comments closed for the weekend
* Rauner vetoes DHFS managed care performance audit bill as part of another big Friday dump
* Rauner vetoes Geolocation Privacy Protection Act
* Rauner plans three bond sales
* Caption contest!
* *** UPDATED x1 *** SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - HB40 update
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - More candidate announcements
* Logrolling?
* Ricketts' Wrigleyville rooftops benefit from "mom and pop" tax break
* It would've been a very tough campaign for Lisa Madigan
* Question of the day
* Legislative move shines light on antiquated law
* Chicago FOP wants halt to new use of force policy
* GOP turkey shoot event image with Madigan's visage pulled down
* Drury could benefit from contribution cap loophole
* *** UPDATED x1 - ILGOP responds *** Report: Madigan pushing back against pop tax
* Poshard backs Pritzker
* Yesterday's stories

Support CapitolFax.com
Visit our advertisers...

...............

...............

...............
<


Loading


* SNEED: Lisa Madigan's bailing out may have had .....
* Candidates scramble in unexpected open attorney.....
* Editorial: Pension problems persist for city..
* Bruce Rauner Stops In Lexington During Route 66.....
* Pritchard bill helps adults earn high school di.....


* EXCHANGE: Woman creates balms, teas with plants from garden
* EXCHANGE: Creator of makeup line had paper route at 1 time
* Candidates scramble in unexpected open attorney general race
* Candidates scramble in unexpected open attorney general race
* Report: Payments for mental health treatment often denied
* Researchers to study pulmonary disorders in Sangamon County
* Shedd Aquarium highlights growing problem of marine debris
* Chicago man charged with pointing gun at city boot worker
* Gary shooting leaves 1 dead, 2 hurt, car falling 23 feet
* Authorities: Skeletal remains belong to missing boy, 13

* Scramble begins in Illinois attorney general race
* Abortion bill is hot potato for Gov. Rauner
* New Illinois law will let adults earn high school diplomas
* Raoul enters AG race, apologizes for 'Miss America' comment
* AG candidate Raoul apologizes for 'bad characterization' of opponent
* Report: Payments for treatment of addictions, mental illness often denied
* Republican McClure will run against McCann in 50th Senate district
* Republican McClure will run against McCann in the 50th Senate district
* Rep. Drury leaves governor's race to run for attorney general
* Rauner signs revamp of EDGE business tax-credit

* Like our roundup? Share it around.
* How Tock aims to get bigger piece of the restaurant reservations market
* Guess where manufacturing jobs are back?
* Downtown becoming one big candy shop
* Time for Preckwinkle & Co. to answer questions on soda tax


* At least 6 people injured in church shooting outside Nashville
* SNEED: Lisa Madigan’s bailing out may have had more to do with father
* Man critically wounded in South Shore shooting
* Superstar saint’s relics expected to draw thousands
* Record-breaking heat wave to end this week — with a bang
* Police: Man killed in Austin drive-by shooting
* United Center to host international tennis tournament next year
* Josh Sitton out; Kyle Long, Markus Wheaton among Bears debuting
* Steelers will stay in locker room for anthem; Bears release statement
* Burglars targeting food vendors along lakefront


* Week 3: Bears lead Steelers 17-7 at halftime
* Chicago to host tennis' Laver Cup, all-star team tournament, in 2018
* Joe Maddon clarifies remark on 'respecting' White House
* LINDA C. BLACK HOROSCOPES for 9/24/17
* NFL players protest during national anthem
* Aurora boy, 11, drowns in Fox River
* Pittsburgh Penguins announce they will attend White House Stanley Cup celebration
* Merkel seen winning 4th term, nationalists strong in Germany
* NFL owners speak out in support of players, against Trump
* Over dinner, Chicago residents connect with homeless


» State Week: IL Attorney General Candidates, The Soda Tax, and Courting Amazon
» State Week: IL Attorney General Candidates, The Soda Tax and Courting Amazon
» Governor Running Out Of Time On Location Tracking Regulation
» In Cook County, 3 Prosecutors Are Handling Hundreds Of Wrongful Conviction Claims
» An Accounting For Meteorological Violence Among Insurers
» Illinois Supreme Court Upholds Murder Conviction Of Drew Peterson
» State Sen Raoul To Run For Illinois Attorney General In 2018
» Suit: Pregnant Illinois Officer Forced To Take Unpaid Leave
» Palestinian Activist To Be Deported To Jordan From Chicago
» Looking For Analog: Old Button-Mashing Arcades Come Back For A New Generation


* Scramble begins in Illinois attorney general race
* Statehouse Insider: Illinois finances not the worst? Believe it or not.
* Angie Muhs: New content coming to Sunday SJ-R
* Our View: Path to health care reform is bipartisan compromise
* State employees, retirees have opportunity for giving
* Citizens weigh in on the community
* Abortion bill is hot potato for Gov. Rauner
* Bernard Schoenburg: Sen. McCann takes on Cellini in tiff with Bruner
* Guest Column: Let’s help Illinois get back on track with 'College Changes Everything' month
* Guest Column: Let’s help Illinois get Bback on track with 'College Changes Everything' month


* Our Past: Faulstich Building provided entertainment for men of Alton
* Modern Farmer September 2017
* Camp Jackson Fire rescues unconscious man from burning house
* Week in Review: Here are some stories you may have missed last week
* OUT & ABOUT: Open mic night at Cool Beanz in Rock Island
* Sept. 24 Asmussen Top 25
* OUTTAKES
* Mid-State team bands together
* Gallery: Photos from Outlook 2017
* Looking Beyond Tomorrow: Stories from Outlook 2017


* At first Wheaton College game since hazing charges, fans support players
* As opioid crisis worsens, demand for detox in suburban hospitals rises
* Fire breaks out at Fox Valley Ice Arena
* Steelers plan to stay in locker room for anthem
* AP Top 25: Georgia, TCU jump into top 10, 'Noles fall out

* Rep. Randy Hultgren announces 2017 Congres...
* Congressman Randy Hultgren Visits Raue Cen...
* Hultgren pushes for CHIP funding ahead of ...
* Indivisible billboard targets Hultgren, Ro...
* Hultgren Comments on CAT Closure, Hurrican...
* Montgomery mayor hosts health care forum a...
* Good government - The Daily Progress
* Hultgren pleads for continued funding of f...
* Naperville's Lauren Underwood to run for R...
* What suburban members of Congress say abou...

* Durbin to speak Oct. 10 at SIU - Randolph ......
* Durbin to speak Oct. 10 at SIU - Randolph ......
* Durbin to speak Oct. 10 at SIU - Daily Reg......

* Illinois receives $110M in emergency prepa......
* Durbin, Duckworth ask President Trump to c......

* Trump makes the threats. Democrats vote to back him up.
* Take a knee Sunday.
* Last Outdoor Movie In The Park At Buttercup Park On Saturday, September 30th
* Ora Oral Surgery Opens Its Uptown Branch On Monday
* Join Buena Park Neighbors Invites You to A Family Puppet Show and Clean & Green
* EXTRA: Rauner "gettin' his kicks" down Route 66; or at least a part of it
* Why Self-Esteem Is Self-Defeating
* Trump-supporting mayor's home vandalized with swastikas and resignation demands
* Higher cigarette taxes are fueling the illicit trade in non-brand cigarettes—and possibly terrorism
* Illinois Left panics over Graham-Cassidy; ignores state's shrinking insurer numbers


* Illinois Awarded Funds to Offer Advanced Training on Detecting Impaired Driving
* Illinois EPA Announces Upcoming Household Hazardous Waste Collection Events
* IEMA Highlights Emergency Preparedness for People with Access and Functional Needs in May - Ready Illinois website offers preparedness tips for people, caregivers
* First Lady Launches Illinois Family Connects
* Governor and Lt. Governor Unveil 2016 Journal of Local Government Shared Service Best Practices

  
* Pioneer Working to Resolve iOS 11 Compatibility Issue With Select Receivers
* How to Force Restart or Hard Reset the iPhone 8 and iPhone 8 Plus
* Chronicles of a Windows user gone iPhone (part 3)
* Folding Galaxy X (SM-G888) seen at Korean regulator
* Apple iPhone 8 and iPhone 8 Plus have arrived! (Video)
* Qualcomm loses two battles in patent war with Apple
* iPhone 8 Plus rated best camera, HTC U11 Plus rumors & more – Pocketnow Daily

* Shields thinks White Sox can contend in '18
* Giolito looking to slow Royals in rubber game
* Brad Ausmus worked out as well as Robin Ventura
* Abreu in exclusive company with 100th RBI
* White Sox slowed after fast start against KC
* Royals 8, White Sox 2: Jose Abreu reaches milestone
* Giolito looking to slow Royals in rubber game


Main Menu
Home
Illinois
YouTube
Pundit rankings
Obama
Subscriber Content
Durbin
Burris
Blagojevich Trial
Advertising
Updated Posts
Polls

Archives
September 2017
August 2017
July 2017
June 2017
May 2017
April 2017
March 2017
February 2017
January 2017
December 2016
November 2016
October 2016
September 2016
August 2016
July 2016
June 2016
May 2016
April 2016
March 2016
February 2016
January 2016
December 2015
November 2015
October 2015
September 2015
August 2015
July 2015
June 2015
May 2015
April 2015
March 2015
February 2015
January 2015
December 2014
November 2014
October 2014
September 2014
August 2014
July 2014
June 2014
May 2014
April 2014
March 2014
February 2014
January 2014
December 2013
November 2013
October 2013
September 2013
August 2013
July 2013
June 2013
May 2013
April 2013
March 2013
February 2013
January 2013
December 2012
November 2012
October 2012
September 2012
August 2012
July 2012
June 2012
May 2012
April 2012
March 2012
February 2012
January 2012
December 2011
November 2011
October 2011
September 2011
August 2011
July 2011
June 2011
May 2011
April 2011
March 2011
February 2011
January 2011
December 2010
November 2010
October 2010
September 2010
August 2010
July 2010
June 2010
May 2010
April 2010
March 2010
February 2010
January 2010
December 2009
November 2009
October 2009
September 2009
August 2009
July 2009
June 2009
May 2009
April 2009
March 2009
February 2009
January 2009
December 2008
November 2008
October 2008
September 2008
August 2008
July 2008
June 2008
May 2008
April 2008
March 2008
February 2008
January 2008
December 2007
November 2007
October 2007
September 2007
August 2007
July 2007
June 2007
May 2007
April 2007
March 2007
February 2007
January 2007
December 2006
November 2006
October 2006
September 2006
August 2006
July 2006
June 2006
May 2006
April 2006
March 2006
February 2006
January 2006
December 2005
April 2005
March 2005
February 2005
January 2005
December 2004
November 2004
October 2004

Blog*Spot Archives
November 2005
October 2005
September 2005
August 2005
July 2005
June 2005
May 2005

Syndication

RSS Feed 2.0
Comments RSS 2.0
WordPress




Hosted by MCS SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax Advertise Here Mobile Version Contact Rich Miller