* Public Opinion Strategies polled likely GOP voters in Congressman John Shimkus’ district. Shimkus is up against state Sen. Kyle McCarter. If the poll is accurate, McCarter has a very long way to go to even be competitive. From the pollster…
1. Kyle McCarter has wasted three months of the campaign. Neither his name ID nor his
favorables have moved.
Back in October, McCarter had 36% name ID, with a 15% favorable/3% unfavorable image with GOP primary voters. Now, in January, he has 34% name ID, with a 13% fav/4% unfav – which is a statistically insignificant movement.
2. Meanwhile, the work that Congressman John Shimkus and his team have done has paid off.
In October, the Congressman had a solid 56% favorable/13% unfavorable image. Now, it has improved to an even better 63% fav/9% unfav image. (His name ID is 90% or better in both polls).
3. This is a district that likes its Republican leaders – Governor Bruce Rauner has a strong image here.
Bruce Rauner has 97% name ID, with a strong 67% favorable/14% unfavorable image. The Governor’s support for Shimkus is a political plus for both.
4. Shimkus remains well ahead on the ballot test.
In October, Shimkus led McCarter 63%-15% on the ballot. There has not been any statistically significant movement since then, as the Shimkus lead is currently 65%-13%. That’s three months lost for McCarter.
Shimkus leads 64%-26% in the 22% of the district that is also the 54th Senate District – which McCarter currently represents. If McCarter is not competitive in his own geographic base, it is going to be difficult for him to make gains in the 78% of the district that is new to him.
Shimkus leads 59%-29% among the 34% of voters who have heard of both candidates, so this is not simply a matter of McCarter raising his name ID to make big gains.
Shimkus leads 69%-12% among Trump voters and 64%-16% among Cruz voters. Those two candidates earn a combined 54% of the presidential vote. So even the voters for the two strongest outsider candidates in the presidential primary are strongly supportive of the Congressman.
The Bottom Line
John Shimkus is well-positioned to win renomination in the 15th Congressional District primary. He is well-liked by all parts of the Republican electorate. Meanwhile, Kyle McCarter has squandered three months of opportunity to make gains. The election will tighten as undecided voters typically opt for a challenger, but Shimkus is well above 50% on the ballot and even leads in McCarter’s geographic base.
Public Opinion Strategies completed a survey of likely primary voters in the 15th Congressional District of Illinois. The survey was conducted January 7-10, 2016 among four hundred likely voters in the district, including 80 cell phone respondents. The survey has a margin of error of +4.9% in 95 out of 100 cases.
McCarter is getting thumped in his own Senate district? Whew.
Also, those are pretty rock solid numbers for the governor among Republicans, but that’s to be expected.