* Paul Simon Public Policy Institute press release…
President Trump’s job approval was 36% positive and 62% negative. These totals included 54% who strongly disapproved, 8% who somewhat disapproved, 18% who strongly approved and 18% who somewhat approved of his performance in office. In shorthand terms he was 26% “underwater.”
Governor Rauner’s total positive rate was 31% who either somewhat approved (23%) or strongly approved (7%). His total negative rating was 63% with 39% who strongly disapproved and 24% who disapproved. This put him at 32% underwater.
“It is notable that Governor Rauner’s job approval in Illinois is somewhat more negative than President Trump’s. This is the opposite of the more usual finding of other polls in other states”, said John Jackson of the Paul Simon Institute, one of the directors of the poll.
Speaker Madigan fared somewhat worse than Governor Rauner at a 21% approval rate with 18% who somewhat approve and 3% who strongly approve. He is at 68% total disapprove with 49% strongly disapprove and 19% who somewhat disapprove.
This is the second poll in the past few weeks to show that Trump is less unpopular than Rauner.
And that Madigan issue is golden for the GOP and Democrats and will remain golden. The crosstabs show his job disapproval rating among Democrats is at 58 percent, among blacks it’s at 53 percent and among labor union members it’s at a whopping 66 percent. But be careful with those last two numbers because sample sizes were pretty low.
…Adding… DGA…
* Back to the poll…
The respondents were next asked, “Has President Donald Trump’s record in office made you more or less likely to vote this year for a Republican for Illinois executive offices including: Governor and Lt. Governor, Secretary of State, or Attorney General?”
Overall, 27% said more likely; 55% said less likely, and 11% said neither. There were 17% who said much more likely and 10% who said somewhat more likely while 13% said somewhat less likely and 43% who said much less likely.
This was followed by a similar question of whether President Trump’s record in office made you more or less likely to vote for a Republican for U. S. Congress from Illinois this year. A total of 30% chose more likely with 20% who said much more and 10% said somewhat more likely. 57% of the respondents chose less likely with 47% saying much less likely and 11% somewhat less likely. 9% said neither.
Another question asked if Trump’s record made them more or less likely to vote for a Republican for the Illinois General Assembly this year. 29% chose more likely; 56% chose less likely and 10% chose neither.
43% said much less likely and 13% said somewhat less likely. 10% said somewhat more likely and 18% selected much more likely.
If you’re one of those people who still questions why Democrats are attacking Trump in their advertising, now you know.
* And again, the methodology is questionable…
The margin of error of the entire sample of 1,001 voters is plus or minus 3.1 percentage points. This means that if we conducted the survey 100 times, in 95 of those instances, the population proportion would be within plus or minus the reported margin of error for each subsample. For subsamples, the margin of error increases as the sample size goes down. The margin of error was not adjusted for design effects. Among self-identified primary election voters, the margin is plus or minus 6 percentage points in the 259-voter sample of Republicans, and 4.5 percentage points in the sample of 472 Democrats.
Live telephone interviews were conducted by Customer Research International of San Marcos, Texas using the random digit dialing method. The telephone sample was provided to Customer Research International by Scientific Telephone Samples. Potential interviewees were screened based on whether they were registered voters and quotas based on area code and sex (<60% female). The sample obtained 51% male and 49% female respondents. Interviewers asked to speak to the youngest registered voter at home at the time of the call. Cell phone interviews accounted for 60 percent of the sample. A Spanish language version of the questionnaire and a Spanish-speaking interviewer were made available.
- anon2 - Friday, Mar 2, 18 @ 12:35 pm:
If Madigan is toxic, Rauner is poisonous. How many GOP candidates will try to distance themselves from someone with so little popular support on the statewide ballot. At least Madigan isn’t on the statewide ballot.
- Blue dog dem - Friday, Mar 2, 18 @ 12:40 pm:
We, the rank wnd file steelworkers, strongly support Trump. The heck with what the union bigshots say.
- Precinct Captain - Friday, Mar 2, 18 @ 12:40 pm:
Who are the 3%?
- lake county democrat - Friday, Mar 2, 18 @ 12:42 pm:
Trump’s very unpopular, but there were “Reverse Bradley Effects” in the 2016 polls about Trump and the same thing is probably going on now. If you were a Trump supporter, why would you admit that to some stranger? Or even a robopoll given the way data is kept on everybody these days?
- Retired Educator - Friday, Mar 2, 18 @ 12:43 pm:
It is a blue state so I think the Trump numbers reflect that. Rauner’s numbers are no surprise, even long term Republicans like me, are discussed by his inability to do the job. Madigan’s numbers are bad, but he only has to run in his own district, where he is very popular. No real surprises. I do think whoever is the Democratic nominee, is our next Governor.
- Juice - Friday, Mar 2, 18 @ 12:52 pm:
lcd, the polling averages at the end of the 2016 campaign had Clinton winning the popular vote by around 3 points. She ended up winning the popular vote by 2 points. Not much evidence of a reverse Bradley effect there.
- sloman - Friday, Mar 2, 18 @ 12:53 pm:
Remember about these polls, people are so criticized and ridiculed for supporting Trump, they do not answer these polls honestly. The liberals and media vilify anyone that supports Trump. I suspect Trump has more support than these polls would indicate. But I will also say I am shocked that Rauner has any support, he is a zero IMO. But I guess that would make Madigan a -1 for me.
- Actual Red - Friday, Mar 2, 18 @ 1:00 pm:
@Sloman
Would you respond dishonestly on a poll like this (assuming you support Trump)? I only ask because, as Juice pointed out, there isn’t a ton of evidence for “shy Trump voters” existing in any significant amount.
- King Louis XVI - Friday, Mar 2, 18 @ 1:02 pm:
–Remember about these polls, people are so criticized and ridiculed for supporting Trump, they do not answer these polls honestly.–
“Gallup’s most recent weekly survey, conducted from Feb. 5 to 11, showed President Trump’s job approval rating among self-identified Republicans at 86 percent.”
Are these Republicans failing to answer honestly?
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/republicans-are-coming-home-to-trump/
- ArchPundit - Friday, Mar 2, 18 @ 1:13 pm:
====Trump’s very unpopular, but there were “Reverse Bradley Effects” in the 2016 polls about Trump and the same thing is probably going on now.
No, this is not what happened. What happened was the likely vote models were off, but even then 538 gave Trump a 29 percent chance of winning. The polls weren’t that far off.
- Colin O'Scopy - Friday, Mar 2, 18 @ 1:14 pm:
What are Speaker Madigan’s poll numbers among the 59 State Representatives he’ll need in order to be re-elected Speaker in January 2019?
That is the only poll that really matters.
- TRN - Friday, Mar 2, 18 @ 1:14 pm:
If Mike Madigan announced his retirement tomorrow, the Democratic Party would have its best year ever in Illinois.
- walker - Friday, Mar 2, 18 @ 1:19 pm:
Blue Dog, best wishes to you and your fellow steelworkers. Hope this tariff thing works in your favor.
- Norseman - Friday, Mar 2, 18 @ 1:20 pm:
Madigan has horrible numbers, but he’s only on the ballot in one legislative district. Rauner is on the ballot throughout the state and Trump transcends all.
Those that care more about Madigan’s numbers than Rauner’s are not going to vote Dem anyway. Whereas, pushback over the poor leadership of Trump and Rauner will be palpable.
Too bad they didn’t question the impact of Madigan on voting preference as a test for my belief.
- Sue - Friday, Mar 2, 18 @ 1:31 pm:
I for one am sick of all these fools running on an anti Trump or resistance platform. Please tell me what you are going to do for Illinois and our declining fiscal condition, failing infrastructure, rising crime and population loss. Please focus on that. Trump will be gone in 3 years but our situation needs immediate action
- Oswego Willy - Friday, Mar 2, 18 @ 1:31 pm:
===“It is notable that Governor Rauner’s job approval in Illinois is somewhat more negative than President Trump’s. This is the opposite of the more usual finding of other polls in other states”, said John Jackson of the Paul Simon Institute, one of the directors of the poll.===
I keep asking this, so I ask again…
“Who is Rauner’s constituency?”
Throw in that 55/39 approval-disapproval with Republicans… as Rauner has worse numbers that Trump AND… is himself 32 points under water…
Where are these Rauner voters that make a constituency that find the way for Rauner’s victory?
Who are these voters?
- Arthur Andersen - Friday, Mar 2, 18 @ 1:32 pm:
MJM 50 points underwater? Brownie, man the lifeboats.
Rich, I promise I’ll never again ask why Trump is in those commercials lol.
- Ron - Friday, Mar 2, 18 @ 1:33 pm:
There is actually no evidence that Trump supporters are lying to pollsters. The polls were very accurate at predicting the vote in 2016. Trump is highly likely to be the most unpopular President in the nations history 1 year in office. The man is a menace.
- Ron - Friday, Mar 2, 18 @ 1:34 pm:
OW, not saying Rauner will win. But I voted for him, twice now.
- Ron - Friday, Mar 2, 18 @ 1:35 pm:
Sorry, I will vote for him twice now. Voted for him once. None of the Dems running will do anything to correct the state.
- Ron - Friday, Mar 2, 18 @ 1:36 pm:
- walker - Friday, Mar 2, 18 @ 1:19 pm:
Blue Dog, best wishes to you and your fellow steelworkers. Hope this tariff thing works in your favor.
It will certainly be terrible for most americans.
- Anonymous - Friday, Mar 2, 18 @ 1:37 pm:
Mike Madigan is by far the most unpopular politician in the state and he bears the most blame for Illinois political dysfunction for two decades.
He is only concerned about political power and only pays lip service to working “cooperatively and professionally “ on fixing Illinois problems.
Every rep in a competitive race will be asked
- Rich Miller - Friday, Mar 2, 18 @ 1:37 pm:
===I for one am sick of===
1) You’re not in the target market or even close.
2) Get used to it.
- Oswego Willy - Friday, Mar 2, 18 @ 1:38 pm:
===I voted for him, twice now.===
Twice? I hope you wore disguises.
Look, some free advice. Don’t vote for him a third time. Voter fraud is serious. Admitting you voted for him twice is incriminating enough.
- Ron - Friday, Mar 2, 18 @ 1:45 pm:
I think I’ve convinced my wife to vote for Rauner this time. She abstained last time.
- City Zen - Friday, Mar 2, 18 @ 1:46 pm:
==Twice? I hope you wore disguises.==
Ron got his hands on a Chicago CityKey prototype.
- Oswego Willy - Friday, Mar 2, 18 @ 1:48 pm:
===Mike Madigan is by far the most unpopular politician in the state and he bears the most blame for Illinois political dysfunction for two decades.===
Rauner’s 32 point under water numbers point to a governor who is the Worst Republican governor in America, and voters are holding Rauner accountable.
Jeanne Ives possibly having a better than 1 in 3 Republican Primary votes… that’s not Rauner having much of a base come November(?)
- Practical Politics - Friday, Mar 2, 18 @ 1:55 pm:
@Norseman:
Which may be the reason that Lisa Madigan opted to retire rather than seek reelection. Outside of his district, Illinois voters cannot express their displeasure at the ballot box at MJM, but they could use the AG as a proxy for demonstrating their anger.
Lisa has not really faced a strong challenge since 2002. This year may have been different.
- ArchPundit - Friday, Mar 2, 18 @ 2:05 pm:
===Every rep in a competitive race will be asked
Sure, but every indication is that the guy not on the ballot at all in Trump and the other guy on the ballot statewide in Rauner are going to drive turnout. The turnout in all of the off year elections have shown strong anti-Trump votes even in state races so I don’t see Madigan being that much of a drag. Democrats may not do quite as well this cycle because of him, but he’s not going to tank the party in this environment.
- Arthur Andersen - Friday, Mar 2, 18 @ 2:09 pm:
“I voted for him, twice now.”
Okay. Yesterday, you told us you voted for someone who isn’t on the ballot this year.
Maybe it’s not such a good idea to provide computers and Internet access out at McFarland.
- Chicago Cynic - Friday, Mar 2, 18 @ 2:17 pm:
Just a reminder that we’re still talking about the same Simon poll with the same problems. 259 is simply not a big enough sample size to take anything very seriously among R voters. That said, 55/39 is pretty consistent with where I see the R primary ending on election day. 62/38.
- Louis G. Atsaves - Friday, Mar 2, 18 @ 2:26 pm:
“Madigan has horrible numbers, but he’s only on the ballot in one legislative district.”
And Donald Trump has horrible numbers, but is not on any ballot in any Illinois precinct this election.
But they will both have an impact on the election this year. Like it or not.
- JoanP - Friday, Mar 2, 18 @ 2:26 pm:
==I for one am sick of all these fools running on an anti Trump or resistance platform.
Sue, I don’t generally agree with you, but on this I do. And I am in the target audience.
“I will fight Trump” does not resonate with me when you are running for Cook County Commissioner.
- Oswego Willy - Friday, Mar 2, 18 @ 2:29 pm:
===And Donald Trump has horrible numbers, but is not on any ballot in any Illinois precinct this election.===
They call it Presidential midterms for a reason… and Trump polls better than Rauner… and Rauner is scared to say the word “Trump”
Who is Rauner’s constituency?
- Grandson of Man - Friday, Mar 2, 18 @ 2:34 pm:
Rauner is such a bad and unpopular governor that he has no choice but to run against Madigan. He should thank Madigan privately, to himself.
If there was no Madigan, Rauner’s results would have been the same. There are few or no imaginary Democrats who privately support Rauner but for Madigan.
Madigan at least has the “decency” to not be an impotent whiner—at least not to Rauner’s level.
- Practical Politics - Friday, Mar 2, 18 @ 2:36 pm:
You can love him or hate him, but Trump differs from Rauner in one essential. He has actually gotten a few things done while in office. “The Turn Around Agenda” executive has been office for more than three years and has little to show for it in terms of fulfilling any of his campaign promises.
- Sue - Friday, Mar 2, 18 @ 2:39 pm:
If it is Pritzker vs Rauner the race in November will tighten. Pritzker has failed to explain how he will tackle our fiscal problems while being in bed with the unions and the Dem machine. Raising taxes but not addressing chronic overspending fraud and waste won’t work for a majority of Illinois voters
- Louis G. Atsaves - Friday, Mar 2, 18 @ 2:42 pm:
“Who is Rauner’s constituency?”
Looking at those Madigan cross-tabs, “Who is Madigan’s constituency?” Considering his name will be (and is) welded to every Democrat running?
That’s what makes the race so interesting.
- Oswego Willy - Friday, Mar 2, 18 @ 2:50 pm:
===“Who is Madigan’s constituency?”===
Madigan isn’t a choice for Governor.
Think on this;
Even as Rauner is “fighting Madigan”, and blaming Madigan, and not in charge…
…
Rauner is still personally 32 points under water… with Madigan even more.
LOL
Voters are tired of Rauner, vote against him.
Voters are tired of Madigan, vote against Dem state reps.
The premise is climbing out of an 16 point swing of approval disapoval, and being saddled with Trump, Rauner can swing an 16 point swing as the Worst Republican in America?
Oh boy.
- Louis G. Atsaves - Friday, Mar 2, 18 @ 3:04 pm:
“Madigan isn’t a choice for Governor.”
I know he is your hero, but Madigan will be a choice in all elections this cycle. In spite of your chatter to the contrary.
- Anonymous - Friday, Mar 2, 18 @ 3:07 pm:
RICH do any of your merry band ever look at daily national tracking polls like Rassmeusan who just yesterday had Trump over 50% & higher than BO had in his first year at this point.
- Oswego Willy - Friday, Mar 2, 18 @ 3:08 pm:
===I know he is your hero, but Madigan…===
That’s the thing about Raunerites, even ones on the payroll…
It’s either Rauner or Madigan.
Raunerism bought the ILGOP, but Bruce Rauner isn’t a Republican.
If Raunerites think avoiding Trump, ignoring the HB40 signature… that will be offset with Madigan..,
You go with that. lol
- Pundent - Friday, Mar 2, 18 @ 3:10 pm:
=“Who is Madigan’s constituency?=
My state and federal reps are and will likely continue to be all Republicans so Madigan is a non-factor for me.
So if the entire Rauner campaign will be built around yelling “Mike Madigan” constantly why would I possibly vote for him? As unpopular as
Madigan is Rauner is still 32 points underwater. Clearly “Madigan” doesn’t provide any lift to Rauner.
- Skeptic - Friday, Mar 2, 18 @ 3:10 pm:
““I will fight Trump” does not resonate with me when you are running for Cook County Commissioner.” But then you two go on to ask, “What are they going to do to improve Illinois?” The answer: Block Trump and his [redacted] ideas.
- Blue dog dem - Friday, Mar 2, 18 @ 3:29 pm:
Ron. Brother. I know you are a free market/ free trade guy. The world wide steel industry has been commandeered by China. They oprate under the not for profit socialist model. Currency manipulation and intellectual property thegt is not good for America. Now or in the future. By the way. The US govt is guilty of this in the ag industry
- Anonymous - Friday, Mar 2, 18 @ 3:32 pm:
I am a Rauner voter. A social liberal that is tired of decades of kleptocracy.
- Blue dog dem - Friday, Mar 2, 18 @ 3:34 pm:
.the tariffs should have been aimed solely at china. This should have been dealt with by the Obama administration. He failed.
- Oswego Willy - Friday, Mar 2, 18 @ 3:39 pm:
===I am a Rauner voter. A social liberal… ===
Yeah, here’s what you’re missing.
Rauner needs 90% of Republicans AND you…
Right now, 39% of Republicans disapprove of Rauner, and the more socially “liberal” he is, the closer Raunerism is to alienating Republicans seeing Rauner is a phony failed Republican goveror…
… who can count on a fuller assault by Labor too.
Tight window, like 31% tight.
That ain’t 50% + 1
- Ron - Friday, Mar 2, 18 @ 3:47 pm:
OW, never said Rauner would win. Just telling you why I support him. I voted for Kennedy in the primary because he seems to be the least bad and anti Madigan.
- Ron - Friday, Mar 2, 18 @ 3:48 pm:
I never vote for Republicans, Rauner is the first
- Oswego Willy - Friday, Mar 2, 18 @ 3:58 pm:
===I never vote for Republicans, Rauner is the first===
You still haven’t voted for a Republican. Rauner isn’t a Republican, Rauner is a Raunerite.
I fed you, I’m not continuing .
- Juice - Friday, Mar 2, 18 @ 4:07 pm:
Ron, you implied earlier you early voted for Rauner. Now you said you voted for Kennedy. Both of those things can’t (legally) be true.
- Norseman - Friday, Mar 2, 18 @ 4:25 pm:
=== But they will both have an impact on the election this year. Like it or not. ===
We’ll see in November which GA caucus loses the most seats.
- Grandson of Man - Friday, Mar 2, 18 @ 4:26 pm:
“I never vote for Republicans, Rauner is the first”
Diana?
- Oswego Willy - Friday, Mar 2, 18 @ 4:28 pm:
- Grandson of Man -
===“I never vote for Republicans, Rauner is the first”
Diana?===
You win.
The level of Raunerism, Republican, and the…
Good stuff.
- Ron -
You sure you voted for Rauner?
Or did you vote for Kennedy?
- Honeybadger - Friday, Mar 2, 18 @ 4:28 pm:
Even if all the Ives-conservatives go back to Rauner, I do not think the “independents” or the moderate Democrats will go for him this time around.
- Arthur Andersen - Friday, Mar 2, 18 @ 4:29 pm:
Juice, maybe they have a pretend voting booth at the funny farm.
- Pundent - Friday, Mar 2, 18 @ 4:34 pm:
=The world wide steel industry has been commandeered by China.=
Really? The U.S. imports 16% of its steel from Canada. China isn’t even in the top ten. We get less than 2% of our steel from China.
- Thomas Zane Stepp - Friday, Mar 2, 18 @ 4:41 pm:
I have a feeling this election will be overshadowed by both Trump and Madigan, as respective figureheads
- Thomas Zane Stepp - Friday, Mar 2, 18 @ 4:42 pm:
=== Or did you vote for Kennedy? ===
Kennedy donated to Quinn’s campaign in 2014.
You’re welcome.
- TKMH - Friday, Mar 2, 18 @ 4:44 pm:
==.the tariffs should have been aimed solely at china. This should have been dealt with by the Obama administration. He failed.==
When the retaliatory tariffs are imposed after the president’s reckless belief in “America First” trade policy goes full throttle, you and your union buddies downstate will be the first to get laid off. In the words of the president, “believe me.”
Bush tried to do the same thing in 2002, albeit with less bombast. It was an enormous failure, and hurt Midwestern automakers and manufacturers.
- Oswego Willy - Friday, Mar 2, 18 @ 4:45 pm:
=== === Or did you vote for Kennedy? ===
Kennedy donated to Quinn’s campaign in 2014.
You’re welcome.===
I dunno what you’re saying here, but you said it, so…
- Thomas Zane Stepp - Friday, Mar 2, 18 @ 4:53 pm:
=== I dunno what you’re saying here, but you said it, so… ===
I’m saying your constant comparisons with Kennedy and Rauner don’t make any sense here. Chris is a democrat through and through.
https://illinoissunshine.org/contributions/4462649/
- Oswego Willy - Friday, Mar 2, 18 @ 4:55 pm:
===I’m saying your constant comparisons with Kennedy and Rauner don’t make any sense here. Chris is a democrat through and through.===
Only TWO Democrats applaud Rauner…
Drury… and Kennedy.
Keep up.
- Thomas Zane Stepp - Friday, Mar 2, 18 @ 5:01 pm:
=== Only TWO Democrats applaud Rauner…
Drury… and Kennedy.
Keep up. ===
The money trail says otherwise. Kennedy applauded Rauner for calling out Madigan and Pritzker’s corruption, nowhere did he ever say the Rauner has done a good job as governor, or that he wouldn’t support the democratic nominee.
- Oswego Willy - Friday, Mar 2, 18 @ 5:04 pm:
===Kennedy applauded Rauner===
Yep.
Kennedy applauded Rauner.
No, you’re welcome.
- Thomas Zane Stepp - Friday, Mar 2, 18 @ 5:12 pm:
=== Yep.
Kennedy applauded Rauner.
No, you’re welcome. ===
Applauding Rauner for calling out Madigan and Pritzker doesn’t denote support for Rauner as governor. He’s just saying Rauner can dish it out, which he admittedly can. Saying that Kennedy supports Rauner for Governor is an illogical conclusion to derive from that statement alone.
- Oswego Willy - Friday, Mar 2, 18 @ 5:19 pm:
lol
If you have to applaud Rauner to go after Madigan, you’re doing it wrong.
Kennedy and Rauner… Kennedy applauds Rauner.
- Thomas Zane Stepp - Friday, Mar 2, 18 @ 5:37 pm:
=== Kennedy and Rauner… Kennedy applauds Rauner. ==
This wasn’t an endorsement like you make it out to be though. The comparisons don’t make any sense when derived from this comment being taken out of context. He merely pointed out that Rauner’s policies were “inhuman” but that his appeal to his base lied in his “outsider” image in criticizing pay to play politics.
- Oswego Willy - Friday, Mar 2, 18 @ 5:46 pm:
Nope…
If you have to applaud Rauner to go after Madigan, you’re doing it wrong.
Kennedy and Rauner… Kennedy applauds Rauner.
===This wasn’t an endorsement like you make it out to be though.===
Here’s how it works…
Kennedy said he applauds Rauner.
Attacking Madigan or not, Kennedy and Drury are the only Dems to applaud Rauner.
Kennedy. Applauds. Rauner.