* The Tribune way back in August 2012, during the Quinn administration…
Standard & Poor’s downgraded the credit of the state of Illinois on Wednesday because of its weak funding levels for pensions, a move that could make it more expensive for the state to borrow money.
S&P lowered its rating on Illinois to A from A-plus and said its outlook is “negative.”
“The downgrade reflects the state’s weak pension funding levels and lack of action on reform measures intended to improve funding levels and diminish cost pressures associated with annual contributions,” said Standard & Poor’s credit analyst Robin Prunty in a statement. “The downgrade also reflects continued financial weakness despite significant measures in the past two years to improve structural budget performance.”
The negative outlook reflects the potential for further erosion of the state’s pension funds over the next two years, S&P; said, citing “uncertainty and risk to future budget performance due to the expiration of personal and corporate income tax rate increases on Jan. 1, 2015.”
* Fourteen years later, Illinois is finally back. Crain’s…
S&P Global Ratings upgraded its credit rating on the state of Illinois one notch to A. […]
S&P cited the state’s rainy day fund of about $2.5 billion and better-than-expected budget performance for the year ended June 30, despite negative impacts from federal tax law changes. Although the rainy day fund is smaller than many states, the fund balance was $3.8 million when Pritzker took office in 2019.
“The one-notch upgrade reflects our view of Illinois’ progress on several credit factors since our last upgrade in February 2023, including the state’s record of capable fiscal management evident in consecutive balanced budgets and intra-year actions to counter imbalances, and the ongoing build-up of operating reserves and liquidity sufficient to offer adequate protection against an economic downturn,” S&P said. […]
S&P cautioned, however, that federal changes to SNAP food assistance and Medicaid funding “will require a proactive stance from state leadership and management, but we believe the magnitude of the projected fiscal effects and the lagged implementation time frame should allow adequate time for state lawmakers to respond without sacrificing recent fiscal gains.”
Illinois still has S&P’s lowest state credit rating, but it’s now just one notch behind New Jersey, Kentucky and Pennsylvania, all rated A+.
Illinois hit rock bottom in 2017, when S&P knocked the state down to BBB-, just one notch above junk.
- H-W - Wednesday, Sep 2, 26 @ 2:00 pm:
As a former educator, I look at the grades within the A range as signifying excellence. That all states are in the A range could suggest grade inflation, I suppose. But it also suggests Illinois has reclaimed the respect of the people doing the grading, and is a safe investment.
Given the Quinn and Rauner administrations’ effects on our creditworthiness, Pritzker looks like a saint. Perhaps he only did what should have been done. Perhaps there is more to do. But Illinois is no longer a serious financial risk that the prior administration brought upon us (before moving to Florida).
- don the legend - Wednesday, Sep 2, 26 @ 2:01 pm:
Perhaps the state credit rating is on a similar trajectory as the White Sox:
2025: 60–102 (5th in AL Central)
2024: 41–121 (5th in AL Central)
2023: 61–101 (4th in AL Central)
Currently 73-65.
From junk to respectable.
- Rich Miller - Wednesday, Sep 2, 26 @ 2:07 pm:
===similar trajectory as the White Sox===
lol
The Sox went from the division’s worst to first in a year.
The state has a very long way to go to get to first.
- Paul Peterson - Wednesday, Sep 2, 26 @ 2:22 pm:
Talk about grading on a curve.
In what world is last place respectable?
Because of recently passed pension enhancements, the unfunded pension liability has actually increased since 2019 -by over 6.5 billon to 144 billion (over $11,000 per person), only trailing California at 264 billion.
Job creation and economic growth are also among the worst of any state
https://www.bls.gov/lau/
- City Zen - Wednesday, Sep 2, 26 @ 2:31 pm:
Thank you, CARES Act.
- Blazzzer - Wednesday, Sep 2, 26 @ 2:32 pm:
IL needs a dedicated revenue source and a lockbox to start paying off pension debt faster. Until it does, it will remain at the bottom.
- Ducky LaMoore - Wednesday, Sep 2, 26 @ 2:37 pm:
“Given the Quinn and Rauner administrations”
Lest we forget the dreaded FY2000 that everyone loves to compare current spending to, that was brought to you by the Ryan administration. Also the totally incompetent Blagojevich administration that basically languished without any clue to fiscal realities. It took almost 15 years to get to near junk status. It will probably take 15 years of somewhat astute governance to get us back to AA. Pritzker was a good start. I just worry about the next governor.
- Andrea Durbin - Wednesday, Sep 2, 26 @ 2:50 pm:
Thanks, @Ducky, for the context, although I am not one to let the disaster that was the Rauner administration off the hook, lol. Instructive for the current larger landscape we are in right now — years of neglect and inattention and then intentional destruction can take decades to rebuild. I wish the US was learning from Illinois’ mistakes but that does not appear to be the case.
- Anyone Remember - Wednesday, Sep 2, 26 @ 3:33 pm:
“Ironically” the August 2012 downgrade was in FY 2013, which had pension payments of $5 Billion, and increase of nearly $3 Billion from FY 2009 (FY 2014 was $6 Billion). Page 9 of link.
In the same timeframe, state employees decreased from 54.2 Thousand to 49.8 Thousand, a decrease of 8%. Page 7 of link.
https://budget.illinois.gov/content/dam/soi/en/web/budget/documents/budget-book/fy-2015-budget-book/fy-2015-2019-budget-presentation.pdf
- Give us Barabbas - Wednesday, Sep 2, 26 @ 3:37 pm:
Rauner inherited shaky finances but instead of trying to fix them he tried to weaponize it against labor unions, holding citizen services hostage. We will still be several more years, trying to fix all the stuff that Rauner broke or didn’t bother trying to fix.
- Excitable Boy - Wednesday, Sep 2, 26 @ 3:42 pm:
- Rauner inherited shaky finances -
They were in much better shape than what Quinn inherited.
- Jimmy H - Wednesday, Sep 2, 26 @ 4:05 pm:
Considering where IL was financially when JB took office, I’m impressed. The difference between stability and the chaos of Rauner.
- Proud Papa Bear - Wednesday, Sep 2, 26 @ 4:16 pm:
What makes it even more impressive is how it was done while fending off the current Federal administration.
Kudos to our responsible leadership at the state level.
- Candy Dogood - Wednesday, Sep 2, 26 @ 4:50 pm:
We’ve been talking about this so much that I feel like I’m exhausted from the topic, but there was never any increased risk for the State’s General Obligation Bonds. The fact that the state’s bond sales have repeatedly been oversubscribed is a clear indication that we’ve been paying significantly more to borrow than we needed to.
While it is great to get credit upgrades and I recognize that a lot of effort has gone into improving the perception of the State’s credit worthiness and making sure the bills are paid timely, more assertive leadership in this field would have set the rates for our bonds around the same price as other states. Just accepting that we needed to pay a higher rate due to imaginary risk has cost so much more in debt service than we needed to pay.