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What’s the pattern?
Friday, Dec 14, 2007 - Posted by Rich Miller Frontrunner billionaire Democrat plummets in the polls after press reports that he hit his ex-wife’s shin during a drunken, late-night argument. Attractive Republican millionaire forced out of race after press reports that he dragged his TV star ex-wife to a swingers club. High-flying, millionaire out-of-state African-American former presidential candidate and ambassador anti-gay rights ultra-conservative embarassed to no end when blogs report that his daughter is an anarchist lesbian activist. Universally known, widely acknowledged prohibitive rontrunner ex first lady loses frontrunner status after she and staff go on the attack. Discuss. Snark heavily encouraged.
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- so-called "Austin Mayor" - Friday, Dec 14, 07 @ 2:10 pm:
Rich,
Luke 4:10-11
“[F]or it is written, “He will command His angels concerning you to guard you, and on their hands they will bear you up, so that you will not strike your foot against a stone.”
– SCAM
- Pot calling kettle. - Friday, Dec 14, 07 @ 2:11 pm:
The next thing they will do is spread the word that Obama is really an Irish Papist, and then they will have someone lead a group of Cubans in a break-in of Obama headquarters.
- GoBearsss - Friday, Dec 14, 07 @ 2:12 pm:
I think Hillary should just be happy that she doesn’t have any divorce files at this point.
- OneMan - Friday, Dec 14, 07 @ 2:13 pm:
None of them have ever been in my Kitchen?
Besides the first lady oneman has been in at least one parade with each of them
All have gotten the same number of votes as OneMan for best CapFax commenter
- Rich Miller - Friday, Dec 14, 07 @ 2:14 pm:
Darn. I forgot “clean and articulate.” lol
- GoBearsss - Friday, Dec 14, 07 @ 2:14 pm:
But maybe I will just leave it at this:
“Barack Obama has the ability to bring out the best in others.”
- Eric Ghint - Friday, Dec 14, 07 @ 2:16 pm:
its people who have reached a high station in life, forgot how they got there, act like they were born their, and then pay for being like everyone else.
This of course with the possible exception of Jack…who basically just lied.
- irishpirate - Friday, Dec 14, 07 @ 2:18 pm:
The Obamanator takes Hillary down
Watch the YouTube video. Hillary seems to be really annoyed that her “coronation” isn’t going according to plan.
By the way the reason she has been getting nasty, besides the fact that her campaign is being run by eejits, is that Obama has been gaining. He gains, she attacks, he gains some more.
Obama should be paying her campaign staff because it appears they are working for him.
- nobody sent - Friday, Dec 14, 07 @ 2:29 pm:
so hillary has been officially downgraded from frontrunner to rontrunner? That actually sounds like a better description. Nice ref OneMan.
- OneManBlog - Friday, Dec 14, 07 @ 2:31 pm:
The Obama train brings the pain….
- Rich Miller - Friday, Dec 14, 07 @ 2:32 pm:
I found this to be quite funny.
- Skeeter - Friday, Dec 14, 07 @ 2:33 pm:
I have to disagree with the premise.
Sen. Clinton was starting to fade before the attacks. Those attacks have been counter-productive, but did not cause the slide.
I felt from the start that when it comes time to cast votes, people are just not going to cast votes for Sen. Clinton. A lot of people think they owe it to Bill to publicly support her, but many of those same people don’t really want her on the ballot in November. That is just starting to show up in the polling.
It will be interesting to see how Sen. Obama responds now that the lights will be turned even brighter. I suspect that he will do very well. Unlike certain GOP candidates, he is not going to do something stupid like admitting that doesn’t know anything about the NIE and although he has Chicago politics in his background, he’s never done anything like setting a rapist free only to kill again, claiming that he spent more time at Ground Zero than the first responders even though the actually spent more time at Yankee games than at ground zero, or change his mind on just about every moral issue out there. As such, he’s got the Republicans beat already.
- irishpirate - Friday, Dec 14, 07 @ 2:33 pm:
The slogan for the Clinton campaign should be:
Why tell the truth when a lie will work. Why tell one lie when two will do. Hillary Clinton: Experience Matters!
- A Citizen - Friday, Dec 14, 07 @ 2:34 pm:
-Rich-
You should print up some Obamabills and sell them for your chosen charity!
- GoBearsss - Friday, Dec 14, 07 @ 2:34 pm:
Rich - That’s a nice looking beard!
- ZC - Friday, Dec 14, 07 @ 2:47 pm:
Oh man, and wait if / until he gets to the general, and his opponent is Rudy or Huckabee. One Ring to Rule Them All, One Ring to Find Them.
- Truthful James - Friday, Dec 14, 07 @ 3:00 pm:
“…Let him who is not stoned commit the first sin…”
With respect to the Jack and Jheri story, you will note that she never repeated in public what she had said in the filings about the swinger thing. The Republican leadership just wanted to eat their own.
The race is not always to the swift. As the Presidential intern said, the last lap is the best one.
- Rich Miller - Friday, Dec 14, 07 @ 3:01 pm:
That’s good. Stick with that. Whatever helps you get thru the night.
- irishpirate - Friday, Dec 14, 07 @ 3:07 pm:
To paraphrase Star Wars(1977)
Well, the Hilpire doesn’t consider a small one-man campaign to be any threat, or they’d have a tighter defense. An analysis of the plans provided by Princess Axlerod has demonstrated a weakness in the battle station. But the approach will not be easy.
General Obama: Then man your ships. And may the Force be with you.
- Mark Johnson - Friday, Dec 14, 07 @ 3:17 pm:
The media giveth the media taketh away.
- Sacks Romana - Friday, Dec 14, 07 @ 3:21 pm:
15-year Congressman smiles quietly to himself. Keeps his Kryptobamanite in a safe, safe place deep inside his secret lair, The Incumbency Dome.
- OneManBlog - Friday, Dec 14, 07 @ 3:25 pm:
irishpirate…
Thanks for the image of Obama attacking the ’small thermal exhaust port’…
- ZC - Friday, Dec 14, 07 @ 3:30 pm:
Obama-backers, you might not want to get too effusive yet, at least not in public.
Hillary’s people, despite some startling goofs of late, know what they are doing. Right now the way expectations are building, Obama is increasingly supposed to crush Hillary in Iowa. If it turns into a photo-finish on caucus night (which is still what polls show), there is risk of a media blowback - Hillary’s “surprising second-place showing” - the “Comeback Gal.” Candidates have gotten all kinds of weird credit for coming in #2 in Iowa. The key is to beat the media spread. Right now this Obama-mania may be building up the margins he’s expected to produce.
I don’t think all this anxiety suddenly leaking out of Hillary-land is genuine. They want people to see them as doomed in Iowa, and Barack triumphant. It’s called sandbagging. This ain’t over yet.
- Tom B. - Friday, Dec 14, 07 @ 3:36 pm:
Luck of the Irish.
- archpundit - Friday, Dec 14, 07 @ 3:39 pm:
===I don’t think all this anxiety suddenly leaking out of Hillary-land is genuine. They want people to see them as doomed in Iowa, and Barack triumphant. It’s called sandbagging. This ain’t over yet.
You know, if Karl Rove or the Clintons were nearly as talented as people think they are, I’m not sure why the rest of the world wouldn’t just give up.
- Rich Miller - Friday, Dec 14, 07 @ 3:40 pm:
===I don’t think all this anxiety suddenly leaking out of Hillary-land is genuine. They want people to see them as doomed in Iowa, and Barack triumphant. It’s called sandbagging. ===
If that is the plan, then it’s the dumbest plan I’ve ever seen.
- Bill - Friday, Dec 14, 07 @ 3:43 pm:
Wait until the voters find out about how bad Hill beat up Bill after the Monica thing. He couldn’t stand up straight for a week.
- wordslinger - Friday, Dec 14, 07 @ 3:43 pm:
I’m not a fan of Hillary or Obama, but I don’t really see a Hillary connection with Hull, Ryan and Keyes.
For one, she’s been elected Senator twice from New York — hardly an unvetted neophyte.
Two, it’s a national campaign. She and Obama will probably be the only two Dems standing on February 5th when the big dogs bark.
Obama has had a good week, but don’t underestimate her staying power. She’ll be tough to beat in Iowa, where you have to get the diehards out for a couple of hours the night of Jan. 3 — when Obama’s college kids will probably be nursing hangovers back home in the Chicago suburbs.
Even if she loses Iowa, Presidents Dole and Gephardt (1988), can tell you winning there isn’t necessarily a steamroller to the nomination.
- GoBearsss - Friday, Dec 14, 07 @ 3:43 pm:
Riiight ZC, Hillary is the underdog.
I like their campaign strategy - “Hey, let’s get rid of this whole inevitability meme that has been our only asset and has carried us this far, and let’s pretend we are struggling just so we can look like we are coming back to finish a strong 2nd!”
The inevitability meme was her only strength. You don’t abandon, or even purposefully undermine, your best weapon.
What this means is: When Hillary starts playing the expectations game, it means she already lost.
- Rich Miller - Friday, Dec 14, 07 @ 3:45 pm:
===The inevitability meme was her only strength. ===
Actually, it was almost her entire campaign and her raison d’être.
- VanillaMan - Friday, Dec 14, 07 @ 3:49 pm:
The connection is how the Chicago Tribune dug up the dirt and pitched the stories on their pages until Obama ended up as Senator.
Hull and Ryan were both outed just in time for Obama to win the nomination and the General. Who outed them? The Chicago Tribune staffers.
Put that in your stocking!
- A Citizen - Friday, Dec 14, 07 @ 3:50 pm:
Don’t ever forget - Political posts from Sanitary District through County President through Chicago Mayor to POTUS are all hereditary and held by a handful of families!
- GoBearsss - Friday, Dec 14, 07 @ 3:50 pm:
HRC - “Hey Mike, looks like we’re headed for an easy landing”
Mike the campaign staffer - “Yes ma’am, heading straight in. Perfect landing.”
HRC - “why don’t we waggle this thing around a little bit, maybe knock off one of our wings, and use only our rear wheels”
Mike - “Umm… why would we do that ma’am?”
HRC - “Isn’t it obvious? Because then when we do land successfully, everyone will be SO IMPRESSED with what great pilots we are.”
Mike - “Great idea - let me just adjust the rudder here a little, maybe a little throttle, and…”
- Skeeter - Friday, Dec 14, 07 @ 3:53 pm:
I respectfully disagree with Miller’s 3:45 post.
In fact, her entire campaign is “Do it for Bill.” For a lot of us, Bill was the only Democrat in the Oval Office in our adult life. For those of us with any ties at all to 1992, there is a sense of obligation.
However, the question has become “Do we owe so much to Bill that we risk a Huckabee or Guiliani, or, heaven help us, a Romney in the oval office?”
Of course, a lot of people are secretly asking “What would Bill do? Who is he personally going to vote for?”
- irishpirate - Friday, Dec 14, 07 @ 3:55 pm:
ONEmanBlog,
I purposefully kept the “small thermal exhaust port” outta my silly response. It was too easy. Although given her snide grin after Obama got in his ‘adviser’ comment, I think he scored a direct hit.
- Rich Miller - Friday, Dec 14, 07 @ 3:56 pm:
Skeeter makes a good point. Thanks for posting.
- wordslinger - Friday, Dec 14, 07 @ 4:07 pm:
By the way, Hillary is the lead right now on the CNN political ticker explaining — again — how she won’t make Obama’s past drug use a campaign issue.
Very Nixonian…
- OneManBlog - Friday, Dec 14, 07 @ 4:10 pm:
Skeeter,
You really think there is that level of Bill loyalty out there? If so how/can Obama counter that?
- Rob_N - Friday, Dec 14, 07 @ 4:11 pm:
Truthful James (and Mark Johnson),
It was General Borling’s soon-to-be-fired campaign manager who dredged up a pre-sealed copy of the divorce papers and was peddling them to any and all who would listen before the primary. (That was why Borling fired him.)
The Republican leadership (and certainly the Obama campaign or media) had nothing to do with that fact.
- Rob_N - Friday, Dec 14, 07 @ 4:14 pm:
ZC, Caucuses are designed to, in part, prevent photo finishes.
–
Wordslinger,
Hillary is up in national polls. National polls are meaningless during primaries.
Check polling in Iowa, NH and S Carolina respectively…. And then check the trendlines for those polls. Much different picture.
- Rich Miller - Friday, Dec 14, 07 @ 4:18 pm:
Give ZC this point though: There is a danger for Obama in raising expectations too high. Look at Sen. Clinton.
- ZC - Friday, Dec 14, 07 @ 4:23 pm:
Of course you undermine your inevitability meme, if, in fact, losing is inevitable. In _Iowa_. Iowa is Round One. This isn’t like a normal campaign where there’s one election night, and that it, and so you’ve got to keep everybody feeling like victory is assured. A lot of it is about managing media expectations.
I agree the Clintons are not political svengalis. If they were, they’d have pulled out of Iowa like a year ago, and then nobody would care what Obama does there on Jan. 3. We’d all be watching New Hampshire. But the Clintons are nothing if not adaptable! We’ll see if I’m right, but watch their words from now on.
- Skeeter - Friday, Dec 14, 07 @ 4:32 pm:
OneMan,
Absolutely. I think you see it mostly in campaign finance and in endorsements. A lot of people will hold fundraisers for Sen. Clinton as a thank you to President Clinton. The same goes for endorsements by current office holders. I can say almost without doubt that Gen. Clark endored Sen. Obama for that reason.
How is Sen. Obama going to overcome it? He’s done a pretty good job of it so far. I think a lot of us look at Sen. Obama and see a lot of what caused us to spend evenings in the spring of 1992 campaigning for an obscure governor of a troubled southern state.
Following up on ZC’s comment about Sen. Clinton pulling out of Iowa — What we have not seen at all is the “neighboring state” stories that you see in NH with Romney or in SC with Edwards. Nobody has labeled Obama the “midwest guy” and in doing so, discounted any midwest (Iowa) success.
- GoBearsss - Friday, Dec 14, 07 @ 4:37 pm:
All I hear from them now is:
“We are sorry for talking about Obama’s cocaine use.”
“It isn’t right to bring Obama’s cocaine use into this campaign”
“We are totally cool with Obama’s cocaine use - his cocaine use is not an issue for us”
“We will not sit by and let one of our staffers say negative things about Obama’s constant cocaine use while in high school.”
“If a candidate consistently used and abused cocaine while in high school, how does that affect the elections? It doesn’t.”
“We will not allow this campaign to devolve into dirty tricks. Senator Obama’s frequent cocaine use and potential drug dealing is his business and his business only.”
“If another one of our staffers tries to score cheap political points off of Senator Co- I mean Senator Obama’s alleged cocaine smuggling operation, they will be immediately fired.”
- phocion - Friday, Dec 14, 07 @ 4:39 pm:
Skeeter really nailed it with the observation about “neighboring states.” Obama’s home court advantage is patently obvious. His campaign is smart to bus in volunteers from across the border. You’d think Clinton would have been smart enough to plant this fact in the media. Or is it possible tha the “neighboring state” advantage enjoyed by Obama will come out before the Iowa caucus to downplay Obama’s #1 or #2 finish there?
- Rich Miller - Friday, Dec 14, 07 @ 4:40 pm:
lol
- Rich Miller - Friday, Dec 14, 07 @ 4:43 pm:
phocion, it could, but here’s one thing to consider: Illinois is not exactly beloved by its neighboring states.
And I believe that Sen. Clinton has a bunch of Illinoisans volunteering for her as well.
- Levois - Friday, Dec 14, 07 @ 4:53 pm:
Sounds like a series of missteps and self-destruction. Hmmm billinaires and inevitiablity. Never did sound like a winner.
- phocion - Friday, Dec 14, 07 @ 4:55 pm:
Yeah, Rich, maybe. Could be I’m off my game. You see, I’m just a little depressed today because no one voted for me as their favorite CapFax Blog poster.
- Arthur Andersen - Friday, Dec 14, 07 @ 5:34 pm:
Great posts, Go Bearsss.
Your 4:37 reminds me of one of Jim Thompson’s classic moments. Adlai III accused Him of calling III a “wimp.” Thompson is caught at Meigs (RIP) by all Chicago TV/press and asked; Did you call Sen. Stevenson a wimp? The reply:
-I categorically deny calling the Senator a wimp.
–No one associated with my campaign has called the Senator a wimp.
-I challenge any of you present here to prove that i called Sen. Stevenson a wimp..
-Yadda, Yadda, Yadda.
Made a 1 day story into 3.
- Scheduler - Friday, Dec 14, 07 @ 5:39 pm:
OK…I’ll vote for phocion. It is a creative and approprate name, given that his comments are somewhat in the spirit of the original Phocion from Ancient Greece.
Also, I agree with a lot of what he says, if that counts for anything.
- Tom B. - Friday, Dec 14, 07 @ 5:42 pm:
Respectfully disagree with all of you. Barack Obama is not supposed to win Iowa, period. He’s facing the most formidable campaign machine ever assembled and a guy who has basically lived in Iowa for 2 years after he nearly won it. He’s still in his first term in the Senate, has been slightly outraised all year by HRC and was down 20 points in the polls. If he continues on the trajectory from the JJ speech, and survives the knifing Hillary is about to try on him, it is nothing short of the biggest political story in the past 20 years.
- Rob_N - Friday, Dec 14, 07 @ 5:59 pm:
Phocion,
Hillary is pretty darn strong in Illinois, as Rich mentioned. She’s been raising plenty of funds here and recruiting batches of vols. (Whether or not she’s using those volunteers to good effect I cannot say.)
And that’s not just hearsay. In my still Republican neighborhood I ran across a few homes which had already signed petitions for Hillary while gathering signatures for various candidates earlier in the autumn.
- Snidely Whiplash - Friday, Dec 14, 07 @ 8:08 pm:
Rich,
I think that the pattern is that you are extremely biased in favor of Obama (in all fairness, as is most of the media).
I’d add another set of pattern components:
- Senator linked to suspicious land deal with indicted fundraiser
- Senator endorses universally acknowledged incompetent county board president
- Senator drags press (and a nationwide captive audience) on a messianistic “journey” across Afrcia for massive (and free) positive exposure in obvious contemplation of presidential run
As you indicated that snarks are encouraged, I would hope you have enough objectivity as a journalist to allow it from both sides …
- Anonymous - Friday, Dec 14, 07 @ 8:24 pm:
I give up, Rich. What’s the pattern? Keyes just doesn’t seem to fit in no matter which way you look at it.
- ArchPundit - Friday, Dec 14, 07 @ 9:21 pm:
===You’d think Clinton would have been smart enough to plant this fact in the media.
They did. And David Yepsen is running with it and angering me to no end. I went to school in Iowa and registered a heck of a lot of students at the urging of the Iowa Democratic Party and the local community who welcomed college students. Now Yepsen is trying to paint college students voting or taking part in the caucuses as some sort of nefarious scheme.
He clearly has let his importance go to his head. For the record, I voted absentee in McLean County while living there, but Iowa law and custom encourages college students to participate in the political community. It’s the polar opposite of Illinois.
Not nearly as interesting, but it really is goo goo land. Clinton’s initial comments got a lot of pushback from progressive and youth voting organization and she has backed off, but Yepsen continues his little crusade.
- ArchPundit - Friday, Dec 14, 07 @ 9:22 pm:
===It was General Borling’s soon-to-be-fired campaign manager who dredged up a pre-sealed copy of the divorce papers and was peddling them to any and all who would listen before the primary. (That was why Borling fired him.)
Thank you for not naming him. It’s kind of like saying Beetlejuice.
- ArchPundit - Friday, Dec 14, 07 @ 9:25 pm:
—#
. You see, I’m just a little depressed today because no one voted for me as their favorite CapFax Blog poster.
Don’t feel too bad. There was an effort to vote strategically to avoid what a few considered a particularly bad outcome. Otherwise, you would have gotten some love.