* Public Policy Polling has quantified the “enthusiasm gap” in several states based on likely voter polling results from the past month…
From the pollster…
The states where the Democratic dropoff is 10 points or more- Illinois, Pennsylvania, Maine, and North Carolina- all have incredibly unpopular Democratic Governors who aren’t that strong even within their own parties. Obama’s still pretty solid in those states at least within his own party, but a sense that their party’s current leaders at the state level have not gotten the job done could be making Democrats less inclined to get out to the polls.
* Meanwhile, Rasmussen has a new poll out and the pollster finally added the Green Party nominee to the mix. That may have jumbled the results a bit. Ras still hasn’t added the Libertarian Party candidate, however, so we don’t yet have an accurate picture of the race. Numbers in brackets are from previous Rasmussen polls…
Kirk: 37% [40%, 40%, 41%, 39%, 42% 46%, 41%, 41%, 46%]
Giannoulias: 34% [42%, 40%, 43%, 40%, 39% 38%, 37%, 44%, 40%]
Jones: 12% [N/A]
Other: 3% [6%, 8%, 6%, 9%, 7% 5%, 8%, 5%, 4%]
Unsure: 14% [12%,12%, 10%, 12%, 12% 12%. 13%, 10%, 10%]
With leaners…
Kirk: 41% [45%]
Giannouolias: 37% [45%]
Jones: 9% [N/A]
Other: 5% [3%]
Unsure: 9% [8%]
The Giannoulias campaign points out that the Republican Rasmussen may be “agenda setting” again. Their polls in recent days haven’t matched up well with others, including Barbara Boxer (where Rasmussen had the Republican up and the Democrat down, contradicting the CNN/TIME poll) and Jack Conway (where Rasmussen had the Republican way up and CNN/TIME had it tied).
* From the pollster…
If leaners are not included, Kirk has 37% support to Giannoulias’ 34% and Jones’ 12%, suggesting as is often the case that support moves away from third party candidates to one of the major party nominees as Election Day approaches. In the previous survey, Giannoulias captured 42% of the vote to Kirk’s 40% when voters were asked their initial preference.
Fifty-eight percent (58%) of Kirk voters say they are already certain how they will vote in November, as do 53% of Giannoulias’ supporters and 40% of those who are backing Jones. […]
Eighty-two percent (82%) of GOP voters favor Kirk, a fifth-term U.S. congressman, while just 69% of Democrats support Giannoulias, currently the state’s elected treasurer. Green draws single-digit support from voters in both major parties and 13% of those who are not affiliated with either the Democrats or the Republicans. Kirk leads Giannoulias by more than two-to-one among these unaffiliated voters.
Giannoulias is viewed favorably by 42% of Illinois voters and unfavorably by 44%.
For Kirk, favorables are 45%, and unfavorables are 39%.
Twenty-six percent (26%) have a favorable opinion of Jones, an African-American journalist, while 30% regard him unfavorably. But 44% don’t know enough about the Green Party candidate to venture any opinion of him.
Only eight percent (8%) of Illinois voters rate the U.S. economy as good, while 56% of voters in President Obama’s home state describe the economy as poor. Twenty-six percent (26%) say the economy is getting better, but 46% believe it is getting worse.
Fifty-three percent (53%) approve of the president’s job performance, while 45% disapprove. Obama’s job approval ratings in Illinois havenot unchanged for months and are higher than the numbers he earns nationally in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.
* Methodology…
The survey of 750 Likely Voters in Illinois was conducted on September 7, 2010 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/-4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC.
* TPM PollTracker.
- Reformer - Thursday, Sep 9, 10 @ 10:19 am:
The PPP enthusiasm gap still shows IL Dems with a 9 point advantage. Not nearly as good as in 2008, but an advantage nonetheless. I’m sure IL Republicans would prefer they had the 9 point advantage.
- The Captain - Thursday, Sep 9, 10 @ 10:22 am:
Put Labno in the poll, like he is on the ballot, and Kirk’s numbers fall back down. Kirk’s only chance at leading is in this alternate reality universe.
- well - Thursday, Sep 9, 10 @ 10:26 am:
=Put Labno in the poll, like he is on the ballot, and Kirk’s numbers fall back down. Kirk’s only chance at leading is in this alternate reality universe=
I imagine the 5% “some other candidate” response captures a fair number of Labno supporters.
- dave - Thursday, Sep 9, 10 @ 10:26 am:
I imagine the 5% “some other candidate” response captures a fair number of Labno supporters.
Perhaps… but the poll numbers would still likely change, and be more accurate, if they actually included all of the candidates.
- Logical Thinker - Thursday, Sep 9, 10 @ 10:29 am:
Wait, AG is accusing Rasmussen of being “agenda setting?”
What does that make the rest of the polls? If anything, his campaign has it completely wrong as Rasmussen has consistently been towards the top of any polling organization with regards to accuracy.
What a joke.
- dave - Thursday, Sep 9, 10 @ 10:44 am:
What does that make the rest of the polls? If anything, his campaign has it completely wrong as Rasmussen has consistently been towards the top of any polling organization with regards to accuracy.
Rasmussen actually has a pretty well known Republican bias in their polling.
- dave - Thursday, Sep 9, 10 @ 10:49 am:
Some links on Rasmussen’s bias:
http://www.tnr.com/blog/jonathan-chait/75161/the-rasmussen-problem
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/03/house-effects-render-poll-reading.html
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/04/use-of-likely-voter-model-does-not.html
- wordslinger - Thursday, Sep 9, 10 @ 10:52 am:
–Only eight percent (8%) of Illinois voters rate the U.S. economy as good….–
I didn’t realize that eight percent of Illinois voters worked for banks and insurance companies.
- eastsider - Thursday, Sep 9, 10 @ 10:57 am:
I can’t believe the Giannoulias campaign is using the Conway vs. Paul poll from CNN/Time as an example of Rasmussen being way off. CNN/Time is clearly way off calling that one a “tie”. Rasmussen has Paul up by 15 points. However, the latest SurveyUSA poll ALSO has Paul up by 15 points. Maybe if CNN/Time weren’t just polling registered voters and would actually poll likely voters (like Rasmussen and SurveyUSA and pretty much everyone else), they’d get more accurate results.
When turnout is expected to be at 45% or less, how can any pollster simply poll registered voters and expect any legitimacy? The only polls I’ll lend any credibility to are those who poll likely voters.
- Ghost - Thursday, Sep 9, 10 @ 11:22 am:
It would be nice to see a poll on the senate and gov races which included all the canidates on the ballot.
- fedup dem - Thursday, Sep 9, 10 @ 11:30 am:
I would take these “enthusiasm gap” poll results to wrap fish with. Far too many Illinois residents (myself included) would quickly tell a pollster conducting such a poll just where to shove it!
- Liandro - Thursday, Sep 9, 10 @ 11:43 am:
Rich, it helps to let us know when you (or Alexi, as it were?) are switching back and forth from LIKELY voter polls (which Rasmussen is now using so close to the election) and REGISTERED voter polls (the CNN/Time polling). I had to click through to figure out these polls were different.
“Likely” and “registered” are apples and oranges. The enthusiasm gap has been well-documented this cycle and adds up to, in some states, over 10% changes in polling.
In KY, for example, Conway and Paul are dead heat tied among registered voters, but multiple polls taken among likely voters shoot Paul into double digit leads. Kirk doesn’t gain nearly as much of a boost here in IL, but it does seem to jump him into a slight lead.
Anyway, considered this post was about the “enthusiasm gap” I felt the difference needed to be pointed out. Anyone following just registered voter polls this close to the election is running partially blind.
- Greg B. - Thursday, Sep 9, 10 @ 11:57 am:
Rassmussen has an interview with NRO this week when he explains where he is coming from. He does have a pretty good track record and as far as bias goes. If his polls says the D is going win by 5 then he wants the D to win by 5. In other words, he’s in this to make money — that’s his agenda. He makes money by being accurate not ideological.
- Logical Thinker - Thursday, Sep 9, 10 @ 1:33 pm:
Dave,
Out of curiosity, which of the major polling organizations do you think has a “democrat-leaning” bias?
All of them?
- Lewis Grad - Thursday, Sep 9, 10 @ 2:30 pm:
Rasmussen uses Likely Voters, while the CNN/Time poll is registred voters. The LV model is likely to produce better numbers for the Republicans this year because their voters are more energized to vote this year. The last 3 election cycles he has been pretty spot on.
- ben tej - Thursday, Sep 9, 10 @ 2:32 pm:
-I didn’t realize that eight percent of Illinois voters worked for banks and insurance companies.-
8% of Illinois voters work for the federal government.