POLITICO has learned that the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee has placed a $400,000 ad buy for the second week in a row in Illinois to boost Democratic nominee Alexi Giannoulias’s bid against Republican Mark Kirk.
The two consecutive media buys, coupled with President Barack Obama’s announcement last week that he will make a second fundraising stop for Giannoulias in October, indicate the party’s continuing faith that it can keep hold of the seat that Obama vacated in his move to the White House. With almost a dozen Democrat-held seats in play this November, the party has to choose which races will get its financial assistance for the remainder of the campaign.
Nonetheless, national Democrats’ latest investment on Giannoulias’s behalf is less than some of the other ad buys for the Illinois Senate race so far – especially in the pricey Windy City media market. The DSCC has bought $250,000 worth of ad time in Chicago this week, compared to the Kirk campaign’s $470,000 ad buy in the same market last week. Giannoulias’ campaign put up about $450,000 worth of ads in the Chicago market last week.
A spokesman for American Crossroads, the cash-flush independent expenditure supportive of GOP candidates, confirmed it purchased a weeklong ad buy totaling $482,000 statewide last week.
You’d never know it from the avalanche of TV ads, direct-mail pieces and phone calls that voters will receive in October, but most campaigns have only another week or two to change the likely outcome of their contests.
Sure, the midterm elections are still five weeks away, but the combination of early voting in many states and the difficulty of cutting through the coming clutter means that the best opportunity for campaigns to change voter attitudes is quickly coming to an end. […]
Moreover, after weeks of advertising, voters already know the fundamental messages of the campaigns. A campaign trailing on Oct. 1 better have some killer new information in its October advertising if it is going to get attention from increasingly cynical voters. […]
A few elections will likely turn on late campaign developments, possibly an ad, a weak debate performance or an issue introduced at the last minute. And a big national news story can obviously have a significant effect on November’s results.
But for most races, the die will be cast around the beginning of October. Either the early ads changed opinion or they didn’t. And that is why the last month of most campaigns is actually less decisive than you may think it is.
My consulting firm participated in a study several years ago that showed that one door to door contact within 72 hours of Election Day increased the propensity to vote by 12.5%. A second one in the same period increased turnout almost as much.
* The Tribune has posted its US Senate candidate questionnaires online…
Is this sort of blast e-mail to reporters really all that helpful?
Good morning –
In reporting on failed mob banker Alexi Giannoulias’ fundraiser with Vice President Joe Biden in New York City today, please consider the following response from the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC):
“Help from Washington won’t save Alexi Giannoulias from his own record as a failed mob banker, and it won’t change the fact that his risky behavior led to the loss of millions of dollars in the state’s college savings program and the downfall of his own family’s business. Illinois voters deserve a U.S. Senator who will restore accountability, transparency, and respect to this office – not another Blagojevich crony who wants to raise taxes for families and small businesses, increase spending, and loaned millions of dollars to known criminals.” – Amber Marchand, NRSC Press Secretary
* Kirk and Giannoulias’ Moms Involved in Their Campaigns
This is the meat and potaoes side of Kirk he should have ben running with all along. The question is has he returned in time to get the lead. I also like how he leaves open the ability to increase taxes, but still pushes he is the more fiscal conservative canidate.
The ad is, at best, a B-. It tells you where he was born and went to college, but omits everything in between. By Kirk’s standards, every Chicago kid who attends SIU, Eastern, Western, etc., could claim downstate roots. Especially if mom gave birth somewhere like Springfield while the family was driving back from a Cubs-Cards game in St. Louis. On the other hand, the ad does look and sound nice.
Kirk’s ad for a collar, central Illinois, and downstate audience is good. The geographic epithet “Chicago politician” is heard often in conversation in those areas of the state and means something—so *being* that isn’t a great recommendation for any candidate regardless of their political affiliation. For this reason Kirk’s ad did not feel like pandering to me as someone else mentioned, nor do I think it will be viewed as such. I give it an A-.
Terrific ad that defines significant differentiators for the downstate voter between Kirk and AG. People are looking for positive differentiators because the negatives are so high on both candidates and this ad will reach that mark downstate. Solid A for this one.
This ad is right in the “sweet spot” for all voters, but especially for non-Chicagoans. It is also an example of a good attack piece that doesn’t come across as negative. I was going to give this ad a solid B+, but I no longer use this grade since Obama claimed it as his own. Let’s give it an A-.
Kirk was at Blackburn College for a year, before transferring to Cornell. His education in England was his masters degree from the London School of Economics and his J.D. was from Georgetown while he was working for Congressman Porter.
Production - A+. Good graphics music. The contrasting changes in music and graphics were well placed in this ad. Gotta love that boy scout pic. lol
Content: A. I didn’t even know the guy was born in Champaign. So I guess it’s informative about the guy but to be honest, he didn’t grow up here so hopefully people won’t be duped by that bit of information. I guess overall it does the job. On the basis of the content, good ad and worth the money.