Capitol - Your Illinois News Radar » Kirk’s new TV ad plays up Downstate roots, SDems keep spending, but Rothenberg has a warning
SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
Kirk’s new TV ad plays up Downstate roots, SDems keep spending, but Rothenberg has a warning

Tuesday, Sep 28, 2010

* We have a new TV ad in the US Senate race. Rate it


Two candidates.

Mark Kirk: born in Champaign, attended college in Carlinville with mainstream Illinois values.

Kirk is a “deficit hawk” who’s voted to cut taxes 40 times.

Chicago politician Alexi Giannoulias pushes for more spending…bigger government…promises to raise taxes to pay for it.

I’m Mark Kirk and I approved this message because I will spend less, tax less, and borrow less to put Illinois back to work.

Sweet is right that Kirk is attempting to build his lead among Downstate voters with this ad, among other things.

* Alexi Giannoulias’ ad spending has caught some folks by surprise. He ended the last quarter with about a million dollars on hand, but he’s spending money like he has a lot of it. And the national Dems have jumped in big

POLITICO has learned that the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee has placed a $400,000 ad buy for the second week in a row in Illinois to boost Democratic nominee Alexi Giannoulias’s bid against Republican Mark Kirk.

The two consecutive media buys, coupled with President Barack Obama’s announcement last week that he will make a second fundraising stop for Giannoulias in October, indicate the party’s continuing faith that it can keep hold of the seat that Obama vacated in his move to the White House. With almost a dozen Democrat-held seats in play this November, the party has to choose which races will get its financial assistance for the remainder of the campaign.

Nonetheless, national Democrats’ latest investment on Giannoulias’s behalf is less than some of the other ad buys for the Illinois Senate race so far – especially in the pricey Windy City media market. The DSCC has bought $250,000 worth of ad time in Chicago this week, compared to the Kirk campaign’s $470,000 ad buy in the same market last week. Giannoulias’ campaign put up about $450,000 worth of ads in the Chicago market last week.

A spokesman for American Crossroads, the cash-flush independent expenditure supportive of GOP candidates, confirmed it purchased a weeklong ad buy totaling $482,000 statewide last week.

* But Stu Rothenberg makes some valuable points

You’d never know it from the avalanche of TV ads, direct-mail pieces and phone calls that voters will receive in October, but most campaigns have only another week or two to change the likely outcome of their contests.

Sure, the midterm elections are still five weeks away, but the combination of early voting in many states and the difficulty of cutting through the coming clutter means that the best opportunity for campaigns to change voter attitudes is quickly coming to an end. […]

Moreover, after weeks of advertising, voters already know the fundamental messages of the campaigns. A campaign trailing on Oct. 1 better have some killer new information in its October advertising if it is going to get attention from increasingly cynical voters. […]

A few elections will likely turn on late campaign developments, possibly an ad, a weak debate performance or an issue introduced at the last minute. And a big national news story can obviously have a significant effect on November’s results.

But for most races, the die will be cast around the beginning of October. Either the early ads changed opinion or they didn’t. And that is why the last month of most campaigns is actually less decisive than you may think it is.

Quite true.

* But Bob Creamer adds

My consulting firm participated in a study several years ago that showed that one door to door contact within 72 hours of Election Day increased the propensity to vote by 12.5%. A second one in the same period increased turnout almost as much.

* The Tribune has posted its US Senate candidate questionnaires online…

* Mark Kirk

* Alexi Giannoulias

* LeAlan Jones

* Mike Labno

* Dear NRSC,

Is this sort of blast e-mail to reporters really all that helpful?

Good morning –

In reporting on failed mob banker Alexi Giannoulias’ fundraiser with Vice President Joe Biden in New York City today, please consider the following response from the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC):

“Help from Washington won’t save Alexi Giannoulias from his own record as a failed mob banker, and it won’t change the fact that his risky behavior led to the loss of millions of dollars in the state’s college savings program and the downfall of his own family’s business. Illinois voters deserve a U.S. Senator who will restore accountability, transparency, and respect to this office – not another Blagojevich crony who wants to raise taxes for families and small businesses, increase spending, and loaned millions of dollars to known criminals.” – Amber Marchand, NRSC Press Secretary


* Related…

* Kirk and Giannoulias’ Moms Involved in Their Campaigns

* Appeals court rejects Roland Burris’ bid to run in special Senate election

* Lame Duck Senate Could be More GOP

* Tea Party Express reveals details of national bus tour

- Posted by Rich Miller        

  1. - wordslinger - Tuesday, Sep 28, 10 @ 9:32 am:

    Great ad. I like the Champaign and Carlinville references. When Kirk calms down and sticks to a believable script, he’s pretty good. When, he starts, um, expanding is when he gets into trouble.

    Question for the NRSC: Do you think most reporters are dazzled by the purple prose? Save it for Fox and the yabbos.

  2. - Niles Township - Tuesday, Sep 28, 10 @ 9:37 am:

    10 if it is airing only outside the Chicago market.

  3. - Davey Boy Smithe - Tuesday, Sep 28, 10 @ 9:37 am:

    Amber, your NRSC statement could’ve used a little Al Capone reference. Let’s work him in there next time.

  4. - Ghost - Tuesday, Sep 28, 10 @ 9:39 am:

    This is the meat and potaoes side of Kirk he should have ben running with all along. The question is has he returned in time to get the lead. I also like how he leaves open the ability to increase taxes, but still pushes he is the more fiscal conservative canidate.

  5. - shore - Tuesday, Sep 28, 10 @ 9:40 am:

    the college picture of kirk-talk about a guy who could actually claim to have a bad hair day.

  6. - wordslinger - Tuesday, Sep 28, 10 @ 9:44 am:

    Maybe the NRSC should call those Amber Alerts, warning reporters of releases that are missing intelligence and reason.

  7. - The Captain - Tuesday, Sep 28, 10 @ 9:52 am:

    Downstate roots? This is the guy who thinks Harvey and Downers Grove are downstate.

  8. - Louis Howe - Tuesday, Sep 28, 10 @ 9:57 am:

    B - Good…plain vanilla “Compare/Contrast” ad…However, I’d suggest Kirk continue to establish a strong negative tie between Quinn/Alexi at least until mid-October.

  9. - D.P. Gumby - Tuesday, Sep 28, 10 @ 10:09 am:

    For a downstater, this is a snoozer and comes across as pandering by a Chicago-ite.

  10. - ZC - Tuesday, Sep 28, 10 @ 10:09 am:

    “spend less, tax less, and borrow less” …

    … 1 out of 3 ain’t bad?? I certainly believe the national GOP is sincere about taxing less.

  11. - bored now - Tuesday, Sep 28, 10 @ 10:09 am:

    so a pattern of lying is a “mainstream Illinois value?”

    oh, forget i asked. rating: i agree with niles township…

  12. - Dirt Digger - Tuesday, Sep 28, 10 @ 10:28 am:

    May I ask what this statement:

    “increased the propensity to vote by 12.5%”

    even means? What is the actual change in turnout with what seems to be the 72 Hour Plan?

  13. - Cosmic Charlie - Tuesday, Sep 28, 10 @ 10:44 am:

    Good ad but the b-roll of him behind the desk is awkward. You want him to be accesible and with people, not barking orders from behind a desk.

  14. - COPN - Tuesday, Sep 28, 10 @ 10:45 am:

    The Rothenberg and Creamer article are well paired…a diminished return on ads to change folks’ minds does not mean efforts to turnout a vote is wasted.

    Then again, can an ad really be nuanced enough to target turnout over changing minds, or are ads just blunt force political weapons?

  15. - VanillaMan - Tuesday, Sep 28, 10 @ 10:48 am:

    Ad is good. The music played in the background is the sames as used by “Happy Aces Retirement Village”, or is it the background music for that slideshow at Rocky Mountain National Park back in 1982?

    Makes me want a cup of cocoa.

  16. - Draznnl (Rhymes with orange) - Tuesday, Sep 28, 10 @ 10:50 am:

    The ad is, at best, a B-. It tells you where he was born and went to college, but omits everything in between. By Kirk’s standards, every Chicago kid who attends SIU, Eastern, Western, etc., could claim downstate roots. Especially if mom gave birth somewhere like Springfield while the family was driving back from a Cubs-Cards game in St. Louis. On the other hand, the ad does look and sound nice.

  17. - Cincinnatus - Tuesday, Sep 28, 10 @ 10:51 am:

    Dirt Digger,

    I would read that statement to say if there is a 50% chance of a certain turnout, contact would increase the chance to 56%. Hitting the voters again raises the chance to 62%.

    Or something…

  18. - Ghost - Tuesday, Sep 28, 10 @ 11:04 am:

    Every time I hear mob banker I think of the Godfather and want to go vote for Alexi…

  19. - Responsa - Tuesday, Sep 28, 10 @ 11:26 am:

    Kirk’s ad for a collar, central Illinois, and downstate audience is good. The geographic epithet “Chicago politician” is heard often in conversation in those areas of the state and means something—so *being* that isn’t a great recommendation for any candidate regardless of their political affiliation. For this reason Kirk’s ad did not feel like pandering to me as someone else mentioned, nor do I think it will be viewed as such. I give it an A-.

  20. - A.B. - Tuesday, Sep 28, 10 @ 11:58 am:

    Terrific ad that defines significant differentiators for the downstate voter between Kirk and AG. People are looking for positive differentiators because the negatives are so high on both candidates and this ad will reach that mark downstate. Solid A for this one.

  21. - hisgirlfriday - Tuesday, Sep 28, 10 @ 12:12 pm:

    Can someone tell me what college is in Carlinville? And when/how long Kirk attended it?

    I thought his official biography to this point was that he went to school at Cornell and in England (where he got his vast teaching experience via work study)?

  22. - Responsa - Tuesday, Sep 28, 10 @ 12:15 pm:

    hgf, info is in Sweet’s column.

  23. - Cincinnatus - Tuesday, Sep 28, 10 @ 12:37 pm:

    This ad is right in the “sweet spot” for all voters, but especially for non-Chicagoans. It is also an example of a good attack piece that doesn’t come across as negative. I was going to give this ad a solid B+, but I no longer use this grade since Obama claimed it as his own. Let’s give it an A-.

  24. - A.B. - Tuesday, Sep 28, 10 @ 12:45 pm:

    Kirk was at Blackburn College for a year, before transferring to Cornell. His education in England was his masters degree from the London School of Economics and his J.D. was from Georgetown while he was working for Congressman Porter.

  25. - CM46 - Tuesday, Sep 28, 10 @ 2:24 pm:

    Production - A+. Good graphics music. The contrasting changes in music and graphics were well placed in this ad. Gotta love that boy scout pic. lol

    Content: A. I didn’t even know the guy was born in Champaign. So I guess it’s informative about the guy but to be honest, he didn’t grow up here so hopefully people won’t be duped by that bit of information. I guess overall it does the job. On the basis of the content, good ad and worth the money.

    Overall A.

  26. - Anon - Tuesday, Sep 28, 10 @ 3:32 pm:

    Has it ever been proven that IL voters have a poor opinion of the mob?

  27. - The REAL Anonymous fka Anonymous - Tuesday, Sep 28, 10 @ 8:45 pm:

    =Amber, your NRSC statement could’ve used a little Al Capone reference.=

    Don’t forget Geraldo.

  28. - The REAL Anonymous fka Anonymous - Tuesday, Sep 28, 10 @ 8:53 pm:

    Uh uh. The changes in voice are too obvious. Kirk, such a nice guy…dreamy. GiannUliaS, the DEVIL…downright evil. Kirk, such a nice guy, dreamy.

    And why is Kirk so tanned at the end? Summer–maybe, but beginning of fall?

    Contrasts are too strong all the way through and therefore seem insincere. Just sayin.

  29. - The REAL Anonymous fka Anonymous - Tuesday, Sep 28, 10 @ 9:09 pm:

    With sound off, teleVISION is better. (Sorry, couldn’t resist.)

Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.

* Open thread
* DHS slammed after care disrupted for "thousands" of mentally ill
* Mendoza wants emergency Deloitte contract review
* The plot thickens on Rauner's AV
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Important update and a supplement to today’s edition
* Frerichs: Don't use new federal rules on 529 programs for state taxes
* "Watchdog" flatly denies getting money from Illinois Policy Institute, but group funded 98 percent of budget
* Governor promised "superstar" appointee a year ago, hasn't delivered
* Chicago survives the first cut in Amazon HQ2 sweepstakes
* Rauner to air entire Blagojevich/Pritzker audio this weekend
* Adlai III endorses Biss
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today's edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)
* Yesterday's stories

Visit our advertisers...






* Mendoza wants emergency Deloitte contract revie.....
* Illinois governor to air ad of rival, Blagojevi.....
* Gov. Rauner to air ad of JB Pritzker and Rod Bl.....
* Illinois governor to air extended ad of rival, .....
* New Rauner campaign ad includes 11-minute Pritz.....
* Gov. Rauner to air ad of JB Pritzker and Rod Bl.....
* Illinois governor to air ad of rival, Blagojevi.....
* Illinois governor to air ad of rival, Blagojevi.....
* Illinois governor to air ad of rival, Blagojevi.....

* Lawyers support man's lawsuit in wrongful murder conviction
* U of Illinois withdrew 35 job offers after background checks
* Chicago makes Amazon's finalist list for second headquarters
* Chicago man dies 4 years after suffering gunshot to head
* Man freed from prison after 23 years fails drug test
* Rockford mayor says he'll seek limits to home rule powers
* Congresswoman collecting Valentine's Day cards for veterans
* Chicago trader accused of killing friend, dumping body
* Illinois sheriff helping people find opioid antidote drug
* Judge keeping some documents secret in Hastert lawsuit

* Frerichs: Can't get tax break for using college savings plan on private K-12 tuition
* Illinois governor to air extended ad of rival, Blagojevich on wiretap
* Chicago a finalist for Amazon's second headquarters
* 2 Illinois governor candidates spend $26M in last 3 months
* 2 Illinois governor candidates spend $28M in last 3 months
* Statehouse bill would connect rural schools to high-speed internet
* Statehouse bill would connect rural schools to high speed internet
* Education officials want to double state budget for schools
* University of Illinois trustee seat has been empty a year
* Rauner campaign: 'Governor believes David Duke is a racist'

* Chicago makes first cut for Amazon HQ2
* Vending machine food that's good for you? Yes, really.
* Here's Latinicity's new sit-down restaurant
* Paul Vallas says he's 'seriously considering' running for mayor
* Poll finds Rauner way ahead of GOP challenger

* Hacking campaign linked to Lebanese spy agency: researchers
* Chicago’s Sun Wah restaurant named a James Beard ‘classic’
* Developer says it’s moving forward with Keystone XL pipeline
* Senate Dems question legality of Trump work requirements
* Trump protecting medical providers who oppose abortion
* Even without El Nino last year, Earth keeps on warming
* US marshal shot, killed while serving warrant
* New Rauner campaign ad includes 11-minute Pritzker-Blagojevich conversation
* Chicago After Dark: Streak without a fatal shooting ends | Jan. 18, 2018
* Chicago makes first cut for second Amazon headquarters

* After nearly a decade, 'CPS Obsessed' creator retires popular blog
* Amazon HQ2 contenders down to Chicago, 19 other cities
* Trump insists views on border wall have not 'evolved,' contradicting his chief of staff
* Trump tweets create confusion for Republicans trying to avert government shutdown
* 'What am I going to do with ... scores from two years ago?' State finally releases 2016 science test results
* Dylan Farrow describes alleged Woody Allen assault in first TV interview
* Man to plead guilty today in stabbing death of DuPage teen in 1985, prosecutors say
* Alderman wants to remove domestic violence, sex crimes from city problem building tally
* Morning Spin: Even after tax hike, Illinois education board wants double the money

» A Prescription For Fruits And Veggies: One Solution To Food Insecurity in Illinois
» A Call For Transparency
» 2 Illinois Governor Candidates Spend $26M In Last 3 Months
» State Board of Education: Double School Funding Now
» Lawmakers Demand Fast Internet For Rural Schools
» 2 Dreamers Discuss Helping Other Immigrants Amid Uncertainty
» Rauner Spokesman: 'Governor Believes David Duke Is A Racist'
» Rauner Signs Law To Help Women Behind Bars
» A Poor Neighborhood In Chicago Looks To Cuba To Fight Infant Mortality
» Democratic Candidates In Lockstep At Justice Forum

* Frerichs: Can't get tax break for using college savings plan on private K-12 tuition
* Illinois governor to air extended ad of rival, Blagojevich on wiretap
* Chicago a finalist for Amazon's second headquarters
* 2 Illinois governor candidates spend $26M in last 3 months
* Our View: Focus on cost-cutting, then turn to taxes
* 2 Illinois governor candidates spend $28M in last 3 months
* Statehouse bill would connect rural schools to high-speed internet
* Education officials want to double state budget for schools
* University of Illinois trustee seat has been empty a year
* Rauner campaign: 'Governor believes David Duke is a racist'

* Moore? Noe? Finke? Bevy of options for Player of Year
* Likas' Ballot Breakdown: SJ-O, Milford boys enter discussion
* Amanda's picks: 6 things to do this weekend
* Big story: At Joe's, 50 years of haircuts and life lessons
* Food fare: McLean County restaurant inspections Dec. 1-15
* IDOT displays plans for Chain of Rocks Bridge replacement during meeting
* Most agree Chain of Rocks bridge needs replaced, but right now there’s no money
* Bulldogs easily pin Hilltoppers in dual meet
* Suspect arrested in connection with rural Fayette County killing
* Public salaries: Look up how much government workers are paid

* Prosecutors: Sex offender to plead guilty to 1985 slaying of Kristy Wesselman
* Stars turn out for swansong of Louis Vuitton designer
* Bill Snyder's 22-year-old grandson found dead in Manhattan
* Olympic win in view from Korean unity at Pyeongchang Games
* Chicago makes top 20 for Amazon HQ 2

* Subcommittee on Financial Institutions and...
* Lawmakers back renaming Warrenville post o...
* Teacher raised in Yorkville running agains...
* Tioga State Bank president and CEO address...
* Kane County assessor: No guarantee your ta...
* Dissident artist Ai Weiwei and US Rep. Ran...
* Suburban Democrats line up to challenge Ro...
* Hultgren joins fellow lawmakers fighting t...
* This RSS feed URL is deprecated
* Letter: Talk to tax preparer about GOP tax...

* This RSS feed URL is deprecated...
* Senator Durbin: “It doesn't bother me one ......

* This RSS feed URL is deprecated...
* WHIP COUNT: Senate vote on shutdown looks ......

* Chicago's ‘clusters’ of unsolved strangling deaths near Washington Park and Garfield Park, and other news
* From the archive: Remembering radio storyteller Joe Frank
* City Announces Start Date (2019) And Staging Area (Parking Lot) For Complete Rebuild of the Lawrence Red Line Station
* CBS Chicago: Englewood school plan still a tough sell
* Michael Wolff’s Fire and Fury, and the question of when we get to say the hell with the rules
* Kalak is a vodka that drinks like whiskey
* City Council Approves Cappleman-Sponsored Program To House Homeless
* Life In Chicago: Grant Fraud, Boot Bribery & Unnecessary OT
* Can The Winter Olympics Save The World?
* Gutierrez offers Kelly an apology, and all it took was the White House chief of staff implying Donald Trump, misspoke

* Illinois Awarded Funds to Offer Advanced Training on Detecting Impaired Driving
* Illinois EPA Announces Upcoming Household Hazardous Waste Collection Events
* IEMA Highlights Emergency Preparedness for People with Access and Functional Needs in May - Ready Illinois website offers preparedness tips for people, caregivers
* First Lady Launches Illinois Family Connects
* Governor and Lt. Governor Unveil 2016 Journal of Local Government Shared Service Best Practices

* AT&T, Verizon, and T-Mobile Tout Boosted Cellular Capacity Across Twin Cities in Anticipation of Super Bowl LII
* HMD confirms date and time for MWC 2018 launch of ‘awesome’ new Nokia phones
* Google Fi’s new Bill Protection feature brings savings and “unlimited” data
* Switch to Cricket Wireless, and get a free new Alcatel Verso or old LG Fortune
* These are the Xiaomi devices that will get the MIUI 9 update
* Newly published Samsung patent imagines phones with ‘hole areas’ rather than a notch
* 18% off travel adapter compatible in 150+ countries

* Collins ranked MLB's No. 9 catching prospect
* With maturity comes lofty expectations for Eloy
* Pirates rebuild not met with enthusiasm
* Moncada guiding Robert during mini-camp
* White Sox announce player development staff
* Robert at ease during Sox hitters mini-camp
* Moncada guiding Robert during mini-camp

Main Menu
Pundit rankings
Subscriber Content
Blagojevich Trial
Updated Posts

January 2018
December 2017
November 2017
October 2017
September 2017
August 2017
July 2017
June 2017
May 2017
April 2017
March 2017
February 2017
January 2017
December 2016
November 2016
October 2016
September 2016
August 2016
July 2016
June 2016
May 2016
April 2016
March 2016
February 2016
January 2016
December 2015
November 2015
October 2015
September 2015
August 2015
July 2015
June 2015
May 2015
April 2015
March 2015
February 2015
January 2015
December 2014
November 2014
October 2014
September 2014
August 2014
July 2014
June 2014
May 2014
April 2014
March 2014
February 2014
January 2014
December 2013
November 2013
October 2013
September 2013
August 2013
July 2013
June 2013
May 2013
April 2013
March 2013
February 2013
January 2013
December 2012
November 2012
October 2012
September 2012
August 2012
July 2012
June 2012
May 2012
April 2012
March 2012
February 2012
January 2012
December 2011
November 2011
October 2011
September 2011
August 2011
July 2011
June 2011
May 2011
April 2011
March 2011
February 2011
January 2011
December 2010
November 2010
October 2010
September 2010
August 2010
July 2010
June 2010
May 2010
April 2010
March 2010
February 2010
January 2010
December 2009
November 2009
October 2009
September 2009
August 2009
July 2009
June 2009
May 2009
April 2009
March 2009
February 2009
January 2009
December 2008
November 2008
October 2008
September 2008
August 2008
July 2008
June 2008
May 2008
April 2008
March 2008
February 2008
January 2008
December 2007
November 2007
October 2007
September 2007
August 2007
July 2007
June 2007
May 2007
April 2007
March 2007
February 2007
January 2007
December 2006
November 2006
October 2006
September 2006
August 2006
July 2006
June 2006
May 2006
April 2006
March 2006
February 2006
January 2006
December 2005
April 2005
March 2005
February 2005
January 2005
December 2004
November 2004
October 2004

Blog*Spot Archives
November 2005
October 2005
September 2005
August 2005
July 2005
June 2005
May 2005


RSS Feed 2.0
Comments RSS 2.0

Hosted by MCS SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax Advertise Here Mobile Version Contact Rich Miller