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Poll: Brady leads among actual Republican voters

Tuesday, Aug 28, 2012

* The state’s delegates to the Republican National Convention may overwhelmingly favor Treasurer Dan Rutherford, but, heck, he put together the delegate slate. So, the We Ask America folks decided to do a poll of likely Republican voters to see who they favored.

The poll of 1,245 likely GOP primary voters was conducted yesterday and has a margin of error of ± 2.9 percent…

1. Which of the following possible candidates would you most like to see become the Republican challenger for governor?

Bill Brady 24.05%
Kirk Dillard 8.66%
Matt Murphy 3.79%
Christine Radogno 2.20%
Bruce Rauner 2.61%
Dan Rutherford 10.62%
Aaron Schock 7.35%
Other (Someone else) 4.40%
Uncertain 36.31%

Yeah, it’s early. Way early. But the folks down in Tampa are talking about 2014 like it’s right around the corner, so a poll was in order.

Name recognition from 2010 alone is almost definitely keeping Sen. Brady at the top of the heap. The same probably goes for Treasurer Rutherford and Sen. Dillard.

* Here are the xtabs by gender. Click the pic for a larger image…

Lots more undecided women than men. Dillard, kabillionaire Bruce Rauner, Rutherford and “Other” all do significantly better with men than women. But, again, it’s way early. We’re only running this poll because the Daily Herald decided to poll convention delegates and thereby created a minor stir down in Tampa.

* And by location. Again, click the pic for a larger image…

Brady does best Downstate, but he still has some significant residual impact in the suburbs, particularly in Cook. Dillard is essentially tied with Brady in the collars, which is probably residual from 2010 and the fact that he’s from DuPage. Rutherford does best against Brady in Chicago, where they’re tied, but slightly trails Congressman Aaron Schock for a distant third place in Downstate.

- Posted by Rich Miller        

52 Comments
  1. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Aug 28, 12 @ 9:56 am:

    Actual Tweet:

    Dan Rutherford‏@RutherfordDan - Republicans Love Rutherford

    SNARK

    Dan Rutherford@RutherfordDan - Whoa! Polls with real voters don’t count. Republicans I pick love Rutherford #stayondanmessage #livinginadream #sayitenoughitbecomestrue #damagecontrol


  2. - just sayin' - Tuesday, Aug 28, 12 @ 9:57 am:

    The incredible stupidity displayed by Illinois Republicans is obviously the fault of Mike Madigan.


  3. - LumberJack - Tuesday, Aug 28, 12 @ 10:02 am:

    Ugh huh….I forgot what I was gonna say, but I agree.


  4. - Shore - Tuesday, Aug 28, 12 @ 10:12 am:

    We’ll see how much love there is for Brady among republican voters and soon to be ex officeholders after the gerrymandering makes its impact next spring and folks end up with jesse jackson and jan schakowsky and quigley and perhaps duckworth as their members of congress for the next several years and on and on down ballot.


  5. - CU Voter - Tuesday, Aug 28, 12 @ 10:13 am:

    I’m pretty surprised that Schock beats Rutherford downstate. Rutherford needs to have another poll coming out that says different because this is a big ugly spot on his inevitability theme.


  6. - Independent Voice - Tuesday, Aug 28, 12 @ 10:19 am:

    Does anyone know the sampling of the poll by County?


  7. - Cincinnatus - Tuesday, Aug 28, 12 @ 10:19 am:

    Didn’t the Trib have Jim Ryan polling with an ENORMOUS lead in the 2010 primary? This poll reflects nothing other than name recognition, and Brady’s run against Quinn puts him on top. Rutherford, a state-wide office holder, should be extremely concerned considering his major efforts by traveling around the State.


  8. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Aug 28, 12 @ 10:20 am:

    Something to Pongee to ponder:

    Dan - 10.62%

    “ANYBODY BUT” Dan - 53.06%
    Uncertain, including about Dan - 36.31%

    1) Way way …WAY to early to talk 2014.

    2) Tons of work is needed to get done for Rutherford. over 50% made a choice that didn’t include you right now. That is real.

    3) Tweets and Facebook posts claiming all this “love” and connecting it to Faux “OPEN” pool of Republicans reeks of an opportunists, and of someone, in a slimey way, misleading “followers” in under 144 characters. Weak Mustard Indeed.

    Can’t you just enjoy being the Lead in Tampa? You are Romney’s Guy, for cripes sake!

    You can’t shake off a half a dozen possible challengers with a “fixed” (slanted) poll of the delegation and “Tweeting” about it!

    “Amateur Hour” lifts its ugly head up again.

    Over 50% chose … they chose anyone BUY you … today …

    “Let me just say bluntly,…”

    You just couldn’t have it be enough that the Nominee chose YOU to be his guy. You delivered. You could have been the statesman, “working hard to move forward”

    Keep the Tweeting. Keep the Faux posturing. In can turn on you … in 144 characters or less.

    I doubt …DOUBT … those other listed in the poll … are watching your Twitter too … Nope …


  9. - Rich Miller - Tuesday, Aug 28, 12 @ 10:21 am:

    ===This poll reflects nothing other than name recognition===

    Which is what I said numerous times above.


  10. - Mo Money - Tuesday, Aug 28, 12 @ 10:31 am:

    Jim Ryan was blowing the GOP field in 2010 away too…how’d that work out? Poll VERY slanted to downstate and DuPage GOp is locked in for Dillard this time and that is 20% of primary vote.


  11. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Aug 28, 12 @ 10:32 am:

    === ===This poll reflects nothing other than name recognition===

    Which is what I said numerous times above===

    This is getting delicious! OK, show of hands, skip 2012, let’s go to 2014 and play “the Feud”!

    “100 People surveyed, top … 9 answers on the board, Heeeerrrre we go; Today, who would you vote for Governor?”

    Geez people … it means nothing, so don’t claim it, don’t “own” it … but realize, no one RULES it, and no one RULES over anyone yet!!

    (pause)

    I forgot, this is the ILGOP …my bad.

    Carry on, its all real. Sorry.


  12. - Robert the Bruce (formerly just Robert) - Tuesday, Aug 28, 12 @ 10:33 am:

    Yes it is too early, but it is fun to think ahead anyway.

    Dream scenario for Democrats:

    1) Dillard/Rutherford/Shock split the republican socially moderate votes.

    2) Republican social conservatives decide Brady already has had his chance and coalesce around another choice.

    3) Untested social conservative gets nominated.


  13. - Anonymous - Tuesday, Aug 28, 12 @ 10:35 am:

    Wasn’t Schock always rumored to go up against Durbin in 2014? Or am I just making this up?


  14. - Rich Miller - Tuesday, Aug 28, 12 @ 10:43 am:

    ===Didn’t the Trib have Jim Ryan polling with an ENORMOUS lead in the 2010 primary?===

    ===Jim Ryan was blowing the GOP field in 2010 away too===

    It appears that the Dillard campaign already has its talking points in order.


  15. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Aug 28, 12 @ 10:47 am:

    ===It appears that the Dillard campaign already has its talking points in order.===

    (eating popcorn…wating for everyone to come out of their ‘corners’)

    “The suspense is terrible, I hope it will last”


  16. - CircularFiringSquad - Tuesday, Aug 28, 12 @ 10:51 am:

    We think the pollees thought they were voting for “Gags” Brady, the idea generating machine who managed to insult every Greek in IL on Monday. He has established himself as the leading GOPie with his performance .


  17. - just sayin' - Tuesday, Aug 28, 12 @ 10:52 am:

    A “Fire Madigan” t-shirt has a better chance of becoming governor than any of these guys.


  18. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Aug 28, 12 @ 10:54 am:

    ===A “Fire Madigan” t-shirt has a better chance of becoming governor than any of these guys.===

    When you poll, will you poll ACTUAL t-shirts, or t-shirts that are delegates? Tweet the results when they come out.

    Thanks.


  19. - Jade Rabbit - Tuesday, Aug 28, 12 @ 11:00 am:

    It was my Birthday Friday, and Dan didn’t forget.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9VhrKZNAx7o


  20. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Aug 28, 12 @ 11:04 am:

    (nearly chokes on popcorn, does Heimlich on chair to self … recovers, plays video again, shakes head because ‘what else do you do’)

    Did I already say this was getting delicious?


  21. - The Fox - Tuesday, Aug 28, 12 @ 11:27 am:

    To paraphrase the late AFL-CIO President George Meany…The Republican party has suicidal tendencies.


  22. - soccermom - Tuesday, Aug 28, 12 @ 11:27 am:

    Shore — “Perhaps Duckworth?”

    Care to make it interesting? I’ve got three bucks that says she wins by more than 4 points.


  23. - Cassiopeia - Tuesday, Aug 28, 12 @ 11:35 am:

    Any republican has a better chance of being elected Governor in 2014 than the incumbent has of being re-elected.


  24. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Aug 28, 12 @ 11:40 am:

    ===Any republican has a better chance of being elected Governor in 2014 than the incumbent has of being re-elected.===

    Heard that in 2006 …heard in 2010 that any Repub should beat Quinn …

    Funny thing is … The ILGOP finds a way to help the Nominee lose. Take nothing … NOTHING to chance. History seems to repeat.


  25. - soccermom - Tuesday, Aug 28, 12 @ 11:41 am:

    Cassiopeia — I think you’ll find your wrong there. Especially as the GOP won’t run “any Republican.” They’ll run a specific Republican with a specific set of baggage.


  26. - Cincinnatus - Tuesday, Aug 28, 12 @ 11:55 am:

    - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Aug 28, 12 @ 10:47 am:

    “The suspense is terrible, I hope it will last”

    OW ≠ Oswego Willy

    OW = Oscar Wilde


  27. - wordslinger - Tuesday, Aug 28, 12 @ 12:01 pm:

    Who are these 2.61 people who know Bruce Rauner?

    Cincy, I hope you’re not on the payroll. You haven’t done your guy a lot of good the last couple of days.


  28. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Aug 28, 12 @ 12:06 pm:

    Cincinnatus,

    lol

    I was going more Gene Wild-ER, in “Willy Wonka and the Chcolate Factory”, than Oscar Wilde.

    Although some might prefer to see my arrest and early “demise” like Oscar Wilde, and not his writing prowess, which I know rather easily I have not/will not/ can not match …

    I will take the OW “snarkless”, so thanks …


  29. - Cincinnatus - Tuesday, Aug 28, 12 @ 12:16 pm:

    - wordslinger - Tuesday, Aug 28, 12 @ 12:01 pm:

    “Who are these 2.61 people who know Bruce Rauner?”

    Sun-Times employees.


  30. - GreatPlainser - Tuesday, Aug 28, 12 @ 12:43 pm:

    While it is August of 2012, and under 2 years from the primary I do feel this process of posturing is important for the ILGOP. We all are well aware of the baggage the party has. We also know that Bill Brady will run because he didn’t learn his lesson the first two times. Rutherford…I mean I just don’t see it if Dan really had the strength to take a challenging race he would have done so already he likes to move at his pace and a blown up melodrama multi-year primary isn’t it. It will get that way because of the Bruce Rauners of the world and let’s not forget the Adam Andrzjewskis either. They will make this unpleasant. So if some half baked candidates get scared out of the process now (or by let’s say next summer) it might be good for the GOP.
    They simply can’t nominate a Brady again. Dillard, Schock, or maybe a third undisclosed candidate needs to emerge from the chaos. Brady won the GP in 2010 because of a crowd of noise makers. That kind of thing needs to happen again but with a better candidate this time around.


  31. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Aug 28, 12 @ 12:57 pm:

    ===While it is August of 2012, and under 2 years from the primary I do feel this process of posturing is important for the ILGOP.===

    Less than 70 days from an election … under a new Democratically-drawn map … and you want no unity now? It’s “important” to do this now … also at the National convention … its’ ….”important” …

    ===So if some half baked candidates get scared out of the process now (or by let’s say next summer) it might be good for the GOP.===

    You ain’t gonna scare anyone with the primary 16 or so months away. The technical term for that is called … “wishful” … “Thinking”

    Ask Tom Cross … how do you do well in Golf … “One shot at a time” … like one election at a time.

    This ain’t good, it’s mock-able. No one declared, so no one will bow out of the conversation.

    It was a nice read thou … thanks.


  32. - Yellow Dog Democrat - Tuesday, Aug 28, 12 @ 1:23 pm:

    Sounds like Undecided has a clear lead.

    Murphy? Really? Does anyone really see him running?

    I think Murphy announces for Treasurer when Rutherford announces for Gov.


  33. - TwoFeetThick - Tuesday, Aug 28, 12 @ 2:03 pm:

    As a potential candidate for governor, Schock isn’t soup yet. While his career and fast rise have been impressive, he would get slaughtered, and he’d fall as fast as he rose. He needs to get more experience so he learns not to say the stupid things he is quoted as saying on another post.

    Dillard would’ve crushed Quinn, and I think he’s the Republicans best hope in 2014. He’s a moderate (GASP!) in the same vein as other, moderate Republicans that have been elected governor. If the Republicans try to go all tea-baggy again they’ll just lose again. As much as Illinois is a microcosm of the country as a whole, that craziness the Republicans nationally are wallowing in just doesn’t play well here. Well, in most parts of the state, anyway (especially in the parts where most of the people live).


  34. - D.P. Gumby - Tuesday, Aug 28, 12 @ 2:32 pm:

    My magic 8 ball is starting to make it clearer…wait…wait…I see it…
    Plummer for governor!!!!!


  35. - Excessively Rabid - Tuesday, Aug 28, 12 @ 2:33 pm:

    Yeah, well, this is how we got four more years of Quinn, isn’t it?


  36. - Yellow Dog Democrat - Tuesday, Aug 28, 12 @ 3:55 pm:

    ER -

    It’s doubtful that ALL those folks will be running. Take solace in the fact that Brady is pretty much stuck at 25%, and can only win if there are four or more candidates in the race.


  37. - Anonymous - Tuesday, Aug 28, 12 @ 4:30 pm:

    =Weak Mustard Indeed.=

    I remember the days when Rs won elections based on who they were v. on whose coattails they were riding.

    It’s a matter of perception, granted, but it still had meaning and seemed to allow people to establish credibility as true leaders a little more easily. It also seemed to allay the fears of voters because it left them believing elected pols were “owing” to fewer v. more.


  38. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Aug 28, 12 @ 4:39 pm:

    ===It’s a matter of perception, granted, but it still had meaning===

    OK, it is perceived as a…

    “Faux “OPEN” pool …of Republicans …(and) reeks of an opportunist(s), and of someone, in a slimey way, misleading …”

    They are Rutherford’s HAND PICKED delegates … who are they going to choose?

    This is a dopey arguement.

    In the light of day, showing that those polled, are not really “unbiased” makes the whole think Icky, and the fact Rutherford, himself, tweeted and touted it, says a great deal …

    Weak Mustard Indeed!


  39. - Anonymous - Tuesday, Aug 28, 12 @ 4:45 pm:

    Weaving and spinning reality seems to be the plan for meeting just about any objective nowadays and it eventually fails. It’s not a good long-term strategy.

    Enron comes to mind.


  40. - Anonymous - Tuesday, Aug 28, 12 @ 4:55 pm:

    And I’ll add that the only reason the Bushes survived as well as they did in politics was because we were in that “transitory state” as a Nation. They had a history of leadership and credibility in the family and people in general were still unaware of how effective flat out manipulation could.

    Some of our leaders today, both in the private and private sector, don’t enjoy such a history no matter how long they’ve been in office.

    My comments aren’t directed at Rutherford, or anyone else in particular. I’m just saying that people are becoming more aware of such strategies and tactics and chances are that they’ll soon become less effective, and possibly even backfire, if the foundations built are nothing more than vapor.


  41. - Yellow Dog Democrat - Tuesday, Aug 28, 12 @ 4:56 pm:

    Rich-

    Schock just shoved the knife into the backs of other GOP contenders. Check out the suntimes blog
    Piece by McKinney.


  42. - Anonymous - Tuesday, Aug 28, 12 @ 4:57 pm:

    Sorry. “…and people in general were still unaware of how effective flat out manipulation could BE.”


  43. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Aug 28, 12 @ 4:59 pm:

    ===I’m just saying that people are becoming more aware of such strategies and tactics and chances are that they’ll soon become less effective, and possibly even backfire, if the foundations built are nothing more than vapor.===

    That would be great! Hurray!


  44. - Anonymous - Tuesday, Aug 28, 12 @ 4:59 pm:

    Sheesh! “Some of our leaders today, both in the private and PUBLIC sectorS, don’t enjoy such a history no matter how long they’ve been in office.


  45. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Aug 28, 12 @ 5:06 pm:

    From thje piece, YDD …

    “”If you are a candidate who’s lost, the natural question is what’s different, what’s going to change? Clearly, there’s a sense of weakness there,” (Aaron)Schock said, insisting he isn’t meaning to single out any particular candidate with the criticism.”

    WOW … it wasn’t meant for 1 … it was meant for MANY …

    “The suspense is terrible, I hope it will last”

    This is so good, it’s horrible for 2012 …

    OK, who will answer Schock 1st?


  46. - reformer - Tuesday, Aug 28, 12 @ 5:41 pm:

    Republicans confident of winning the governor’s seat in ‘14 may find their general election opponent is not the incumbent.


  47. - John Galt - Tuesday, Aug 28, 12 @ 6:55 pm:

    1) It won’t be Brady the next time around. It’s name ID only at this point. This will be his third attempt. Not going to happen.

    2) Dillard will do a much better job of locking up DuPage this time around. The only way for Rutherford to win is to make major inroads there, but if Dillard can get Cronin, The Addison Machine, and the rest of the Establishment he won’t get far. The only one from DuPage who might try to make a go is Adam A and he only has very limited support. Cronin will either run for re-election as DuPage Chairman to completely lock down DuPage for his own 2018 run, or perhaps run for a statewide office in 2014 on a quasi-slate with Dillard.

    3) Murphy & Duffy simply don’t have the juice. If anything I expect one or both to run for a lower statewide office, but Murphy drew a 2 year slot. He’ll probably stay in the senate and climb up the leadership ladder.

    4) As noted in the story, Rutherford, Schock & Brady are all downstate guys. Might split alot of that vote this time around.

    5) Rauner could jump in & hoover up all of the Chicago money, but at this point Dillard & Rutherford have some inroads there too.

    Bottom line is it will be Dillard, Rutherford, plus a viable 3rd candidate and that will be it. The GOP will offer up a few solid down-ballot statewide races as well–Attorney General, Treasurer, etc.


  48. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Aug 28, 12 @ 8:34 pm:

    ===but if Dillard can get Cronin, The Addison Machine, and the rest of the Establishment…===

    Paper Tiger!! (clap, clap, clap-clap-clap)

    There ain’t no machine.

    Get over that RIGHT now.

    This is the #1 reason why the field operation failed Dillard last time, and anyone who thinks any of DuPage can deliver at a 6 to 1 ratio again for one candidate will fail in 2012, and again in 2014 and again in 2016.

    The GOP has no aparatus to deliver at the Primary level for anyone at a clip that can be depended on at the 1980s or 1990 levels. That is a fact.

    Be real for 2 minutes, and look at the … reality.

    I complain about the field ops, but everyone says they exist.

    “By sundown tomorrow…” there still won’t be precinct workers delivering the mail or delivering… the votes.

    Other than that, …


  49. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Aug 28, 12 @ 8:53 pm:

    ===The GOP will offer up a few solid down-ballot statewide races as well–Attorney General…===

    Name the last 2 that ran against Lisa …. yeah, that’s what I thought … lol

    Let’s fix 2012 first, then lets get ready for 2014 AFTER 2012 is done!

    Fiasco, but that statement above, was worth a chuckle …


  50. - John - Wednesday, Aug 29, 12 @ 1:23 am:

    Has anyone done a poll for the 2014 US Senate race yet??


  51. - Yellow Dog Democrat - Wednesday, Aug 29, 12 @ 8:20 am:

    @John -

    What’s the point? Dick Durbin is running for re-election.

    @Willy -

    Agreed. For someone too young to even remember Reagan, Schock sure has a lot of advice for the party. I’m sure it will be well-received.


  52. - Conservative Republican - Wednesday, Aug 29, 12 @ 10:29 am:

    GOPers should think seriously about Dan Cronin for governor. Successful elected politician (Du Page Co Board Chairman and long time State Senator) with broad appeal.


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


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* White Sox fans excited about future seasons
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* Covey looks to impress Sox in clash with KC
* Sporcle Saturday: Double your pleasure
* Sox Century: Sept. 22, 1917
* White Sox 7, Royals 6: A game-ending 9-2-4-6 double play


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