Deja vu all over again
Friday, Nov 30, 2012 - Posted by Rich Miller
* The reporting on yesterday’s PPP poll has been somewhat breathless…
Reports are coming out that Pat Quinn is the least popular governor in the country.
according to a survey that came out Thursday, only one in four Illinois voters approves of Quinn’s job performance.
The liberal-leaning Public Policy Polling firm found that 64 percent of voters disapprove of the work Quinn is doing, making him “the most unpopular governor [it] has polled on anywhere in the country this year.”
The firm reports that, if the general election were held today, Quinn would lose to state Sen. Kirk Dillard (R) by a margin of 44 to 37 percent, and to state Treasurer Dan Rutherford (R) by 43 to 39 percent.
* More…
“Quinn’s unpopularity puts the Republicans in a position where they could win despite the fact that none of them are very well-known,” said Tom Jensen, director of Public Policy Polling.
An aide to Quinn defended his tenure and acknowledged that his efforts to deal with difficult subjects, such as Medicaid reform, facility closures and tax increases, have not been popular — but are in the best interests of state government.
* OK, here’s Real Clear Politics’ poll tracker for the 2010 general. As you can see, the average had him losing to Bill Brady by almost five points…
In October, the Tribune had Quinn trailing by four points and Rasmussen and PPP had him down by five.
On October 12th, 2010 - just a few weeks before the election - Quinn’s job approval was measured at 26 percent by the Tribune’s pollster. That’s just a point higher than PPP’s latest poll.
In other words, we’ve seen this movie before.
- shore - Friday, Nov 30, 12 @ 9:38 am:
There’s a likability and trust people have in quinn which enables him to weather storms and I don’t think he’s as vulnerable as that poll indicates.
To his credit, Rutherford, unlike Dillard, Brady and Schock, has worked extremely hard over the last several years to build ties around the state in and out of the party and that showed up in that poll. I don’t care for him, but that work does pay off and he earned that support he got.
- OneMan - Friday, Nov 30, 12 @ 9:40 am:
Here is a bit of a dumb question, does the more Democratic map ‘hurt’ Pat since there will be fewer seats where Dems have to really work or does that free up resources for Pat?
- Tom - Friday, Nov 30, 12 @ 9:41 am:
What many people forget is Quinn changed his media consultant mid stream which saved his butt. He hired Joe Slade White.
- Generation X - Friday, Nov 30, 12 @ 9:45 am:
That was before his war on labor began. He is not likely to have the same level of support that he did in 2010 from a key part of his base
- Oswego Willy - Friday, Nov 30, 12 @ 9:50 am:
It’s amazing … What. A. Ground. Game. Can do.
How did Brady lose???
Then name of the game is VOTES, and getting VOTERS to the polls.
“But we are up 5, what is the size the drapes need to be?”
Ground Game … worth its weight to invest in one.
- ArchPundit - Friday, Nov 30, 12 @ 9:52 am:
We just can’t quit him. Nate Silver got the 2010 race ‘wrong’ as well though by giving us probabilities of the outcome he also gives us the likelihood not just the binary choice of win-lose.
The AFSCME fight is going to be a problem if there is a primary.
A big part of the question is what will SEIU do? Do they stick with Quinn who has been a good ally? This may be different from not endorsing him with the possibility SEIU endorses him and then doesn’t do much. SEIU has been a critical player in the primaries and if they stick with Quinn and go all in, he becomes far more formidable than the 25% approval suggests.
- Mowatcher - Friday, Nov 30, 12 @ 10:03 am:
Correct me if I’m wrong, but didn’t Blago have a super-low approval rating in 2006 and still went on to beat Topinka by a sizable margin?
- western illinois - Friday, Nov 30, 12 @ 10:03 am:
Someone called Rich Miller compared Brady and Kirk downstate and attibuted teh difference to state workers….
He wont have the Union GOTV with him Probably against him…(ex maybe SEIU)
- Responsa - Friday, Nov 30, 12 @ 10:04 am:
Here’s why the PPP poll is important. Do you remember how close Quinn came to losing the Dem primary last time? Well, based on their observtion of him in action, (and supported by this poll) I don’t think Dems across the board will be dumb enough to “let” Pat make it to the general election this time. Whoever the R candidate for governor is in 2014 he/she will be facing a different, and probably much stronger opponent than Pat Quinn.
- Madison - Friday, Nov 30, 12 @ 10:04 am:
I actually have to admit that PQ has an ability to pull things out late in the game. While he is not likely to get as inept a team as Brady -Plummer again, he did pull off what I considered an upset victory in the primary as well.
As X mentioned above, this is a man at war with his base…a gambit designed to shed democratic votes, and add independents and Republican crossovers. For a guy that had the democratic party base in cook county in the palm of his hand? Odd gamble, since my recollection was his independent strength was maybe not saturated, but good.
Since team Madigan raised taxes and added seats, perhaps it’s time for Quinn to declare a truce with his base and focus on the revenue side. There is really no downside since the GOP is emasculated and now the threat is from the Primary.
Whomever he gets if successful in the Primary, odds are they drank the kool-aid.
- I wonder... - Friday, Nov 30, 12 @ 10:06 am:
What does Shelia Simon do? Since Gov and Lt. Gov candidates have to run together in the primaries now (I believe this is the case or do they pick a running mate after the primary?), does she jump ship? Maybe run on her own? Or does she stay put? Any insight Rich?
- Rich Miller - Friday, Nov 30, 12 @ 10:07 am:
===attibuted teh difference to state workers===
Actually, it was union members in general because of Brady’s staunch right to work stance.
- Robert the Bruce - Friday, Nov 30, 12 @ 10:09 am:
==A big part of the question is what will SEIU do?==
Good question. SEIU sure gave a lot to Quinn in the last election - http://bit.ly/UwrqeS - over $2,000,000 by my count.
I’d think a republican governor would be worse for SEIU. On the other hand, in the long run, one way to exert more influence would be to sit an election out to send a message to Dems who have strayed from their support of unions.
- dupage dan - Friday, Nov 30, 12 @ 10:11 am:
So, yesterday it was all “Quinn is done”. Now it’s all “Quinn is safe”. And we are 2 1/2 years out from the next election. Sheesh.
I agree with the second. I mean, we re-elected Blagojevich, didn’t we?
- shore - Friday, Nov 30, 12 @ 10:11 am:
I wonder, you make a good point on sheila simon, I don’t know if she’s been teaching while lt governor but she’s been pretty invisible. I would have thought she’d be used more and more active.
- PublicServant - Friday, Nov 30, 12 @ 10:13 am:
Responsa has it right. Quinn won’t survive the primary.
- Oswego Willy - Friday, Nov 30, 12 @ 10:13 am:
The ILGOP needs Pat Quinn to survive a Primary, then have Labor bail on Quinn in the General, and try to build a skeleton Field Operation to get the Mansion back, along with some IL House and IL Senate seats, ate least in play.
I fear, the next 10 months, the ILDems will decide that Quinn isn’t the answer, have an Open Primary, with many circulating. The only fear for the ILDems is that Quinn gets 26% in a 4-way Primary, and that might get him over the Finish Line.
This Guv. race in the General, less Pat Quinn, will be won in the Precincts. Unless the GOP Nominee has a double-digit lead going into the Monday before, I can’t see the GOP Nominee beating the ILDem Nominee on Election Day without a double-digit lead, at least.
- Responsa - Friday, Nov 30, 12 @ 10:14 am:
Surely I’m not the only one here who has been receiving snarky emails from “friends” all over the country congratulating me on living in Illinois- the state with the lowest rated governor in all the states that were polled this year. The one from a buddy in California was especially galling.
- Rich Miller - Friday, Nov 30, 12 @ 10:21 am:
===Quinn won’t survive the primary. ===
He has to have a decent opponent first. And that would be???
- Rich Miller - Friday, Nov 30, 12 @ 10:22 am:
In other words, you can’t beat somebody with nobody.
Also, never underestimate the power of a governor to defend himself in a primary.
- Hyperbolic Chamber - Friday, Nov 30, 12 @ 10:23 am:
== The AFSCME fight is going to be a problem if there is a primary. ==
AFSCME stayed out of the Hynes/Quinn primary entirely, so, yes, it will be a problem. But it’s not just AFSCME. The IFT & IEA were late to the Hynes party in 2010; their $/support came in the final 2 weeks of the race. Early money is critical. The prospect of the 3 of them “all in” at an early date is a huge problem for PQ.
What SEIU does is a question. My guess is they stand by PQ, but to what degree?
- Hyperbolic Chamber - Friday, Nov 30, 12 @ 10:26 am:
This is also the first guber. primary with contribution limits. Game changer probably that benefits PQ, but this is when we will start seeing IEs explode in IL.
- 47th Ward - Friday, Nov 30, 12 @ 10:38 am:
===you can’t beat somebody with nobody===
Exactly. These numbers will change based on Quinn’s opponent in the primary. I think Quinn is more vulnerable to a challenge from a woman and/or an African-American candidate than he is from another white guy. And given the issues as we can expect them to be, I don’t think another white guy can run to the left of Quinn on pensions, taxes, guns, gay marriage, etc. Most likely, another white male’s path is to the right of Quinn, which is tough to do in a Dem primary. And if there are multiple opponents, then that would increase Quinn’s chances to win the nomination.
Preckwinkle insists she isn’t running. Maybe she’ll change her mind, because if Quinn is going to lose a Dem primary, I think she has the best chance of beating him.
But for now, Rich is spot-on as usual, we shouldn’t read too much into this poll.
- Yahoooz - Friday, Nov 30, 12 @ 10:48 am:
Illinois is in a fiscal state of disturbance. Regardless if one likes Quinn or not, whomever would have won would be faced with the same impossible to please everyone situations.
For what its worth, if the election were held today my quess is Quinn would win again. I just cant see many of Quinn’s distractors voting for the Brady Plummer ticket and can only imagine what the unions would be saying about them had they been elected instead of Quinn
- siu alum - Friday, Nov 30, 12 @ 10:49 am:
If Lisa Madigan doesnt run then would Hynes throw his hat in? What does he have to lose?
- Johnny Q. Suburban - Friday, Nov 30, 12 @ 10:50 am:
Man, 2014 is going to be one fun electoral season.
- Generation X - Friday, Nov 30, 12 @ 11:04 am:
With AFL-CIO and teachers unions seemingly casting their lots with Afscme a reasonable primary opponent or Moderate Republic opponent would spell big trouble for PQ
- CircularFiringSquad - Friday, Nov 30, 12 @ 11:08 am:
How about PQ-Forby?
That is both the joke and the punchline
- RMD - Friday, Nov 30, 12 @ 11:12 am:
Refreshing to have a politician be unpopular. It means they maybe standing on principle and trying to do the right thing regardless of consequent.
- PublicServant - Friday, Nov 30, 12 @ 11:29 am:
===Quinn won’t survive the primary. ===
===He has to have a decent opponent first. And that would be??? ===
RNUG - Throw your hat into the ring.
- PublicServant - Friday, Nov 30, 12 @ 11:35 am:
===Quinn won’t survive the primary. ===
===He has to have a decent opponent first. And that would be??? ===
Wordslinger? You’re not that busy right?
- Rich Miller - Friday, Nov 30, 12 @ 11:44 am:
===Wordslinger? You’re not that busy right? ===
Skeletons.
lol
Just sayin…
- cassandra - Friday, Nov 30, 12 @ 11:47 am:
I don’t think the Republicans will have repaired their “brand” by 2014-that project will take decades, –so the Democratic primary, again, will be where our next governor is chosen. The challenge for a party with a long-term supermajority is to keep from dissolving into factions and fighting among themselves. A nasty primary fight would likely cause a lot of rifts for a Republican (probably not yet born, the way things are going) to exploit some day.
- wordslinger - Friday, Nov 30, 12 @ 12:07 pm:
Rich, skeletons? Some of them aren’t even dead yet.
- Loop Lady - Friday, Nov 30, 12 @ 12:17 pm:
Last I heard, Hynes is very happy in the private sector…wouldn’t you be too looking at the morass that is IL gov’t?
- PublicServant - Friday, Nov 30, 12 @ 12:38 pm:
It’s always darkest before the Dawn Clark Netsch maybe?
- dave - Friday, Nov 30, 12 @ 12:48 pm:
**He has to have a decent opponent first. And that would be???**
I’m calling it right now. Alexi runs for Governor against Quinn (though, if Durbin doesn’t run again, he’s an option there as well).
And Hynes doesn’t run for office again.
- Amuzing Myself - Friday, Nov 30, 12 @ 1:08 pm:
OW: ground game doesn’t matter if you don’t establish your message in the suburbs. Brady could have had a thousand troops on the ground in each collar county and it wouldn’t have mattered. He was seen as too extreme, and never did the tv work to soften his image. Ground game didnt help either caucus or the GOP congressional candidates this year either.
- Oswego Willy - Friday, Nov 30, 12 @ 1:17 pm:
- Amuzing Myself -,
Since there WAS NO ground game to offer as proof, we will never know.
“Call me, Maybe?”
Further,
I agree that hiding from Chicago and Cook county by the Brady Staff’s decision, all the while, literally, hiding Jason Plummer from everyone except squirrels and rabbits, you are on-point there. The Campaign decision to forgo Cook and Chicago was a Death-Nail.
Lastly,
Extreme, not extreme, the point should have been, “The governor’s race will decide the political destiny of the ILGOP. Do you trust Quinn with the GOP’s future map, or are you going to trust Pat Brady. The 80% Rule say, ‘Vote Brady’. Well, we got curtain-measuring, and no message to carry in Cook and the Collars to rally.
Add no ground game … to no message …to “no candidate” to campaign in Cook … you get a losing recipe.
Lots of ingredients, cooked perfectly for Irrelevency.
- Oswego Willy - Friday, Nov 30, 12 @ 1:22 pm:
===Ground game didnt help either caucus or the GOP congressional candidates this year either.===
You show me a REAL ground game by the SGOP or the HGOP, especially on Election Day, then we can debate that, but since there was not a ground game, I have nothing more to say on that!
To the Congressionals, If all who lost, if they can say they had run EVERY plus voter they had, made sure their Election Day was flawless, then you got me. However, I don’t think you can honestly say the congressionals ran ground games that ensured all their plus voters voted, let alone IF they had plus voters they identified.
- Robo - Monday, Dec 3, 12 @ 9:44 am:
Agree with all the comments about a ground game, but I think polling has been off for a number of cycles now. I think there are 3 problems pollsters have to deal with 1) lying (that’s an old one), 2) cell phones (landlines are declining fast), and 3) cheap polling (you get what you pay for).