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Poll: Durbin doing well

Tuesday, Dec 4, 2012

* The latest from Public Policy Polling

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Dick
Durbin’s job performance?
Approve …………………………………………………. 51%
Disapprove……………………………………………… 34%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 15%

Q2 Generally speaking, in 2014, if the Democratic
candidate for Senate was Dick Durbin, would
you vote for him or his Republican opponent?
Dick Durbin …………………………………………….. 52%
Republican opponent ……………………………….. 38%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 10%

* From the pollster

Durbin is in such good shape because 20% of Republicans support his work in the Senate, and 13% of them say they will probably vote for him in two years. Independents are split right down the middle on both fronts, including 42-42 on the re-elect.

Faced with actual opponents, Durbin does even better, though slightly more Republicans and independents are undecided than Democrats. Outgoing Rep. Bob Dold comes closest to matching the ideal Republican’s standing, with a 21-point deficit (54-33). Failed 2010 Tea Party contender Patrick Hughes is down 22 (53-31), and retiring Rep. Joe Walsh lags by 25 (54-29).

In all three actual head-to-heads, Durbin maintains the same 13% of the GOP’s support, and outdoes his 82% level with his own party by two or three points. The main difference is with independents. He jumps up two to five points with them for leads of nine points over Dold and Hughes and 18 over Walsh.

Granted, Hughes is a complete unknown—88% have no opinion of him, so he is truly generic. Still only 46% have an opinion on Walsh (14% favorable and 32% unfavorable), and 49% on Dold (21-28). So they stand more to gain than Durbin does. But when name recognition is equalized at this point, Durbin’s advantage actually increases to leads of 25 to 35 points, so combined with his strength and the Republicans’ relative unpopularity, he is unlikely to get much if any more vulnerable.

Barring unforeseen circumstances and/or a solid candidate, agreed.

* More results

Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Bob Dold?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 21%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 28%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 52%

Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Patrick Hughes?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 4%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 8%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 88%

Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Joe Walsh?
Favorable……………………………………………….. 14%
Unfavorable ……………………………………………. 32%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 55%

Q6 If the candidates for Senate in 2014 were
Democrat Dick Durbin and Republican Bob
Dold, who would you vote for?
Dick Durbin …………………………………………….. 54%
Bob Dold………………………………………………… 33%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 13%

Q7 If the candidates for Senate in 2014 were
Democrat Dick Durbin and Republican Patrick
Hughes, who would you vote for?
Dick Durbin …………………………………………….. 53%
Patrick Hughes ……………………………………….. 31%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 16%

Q8 If the candidates for Senate in 2014 were
Democrat Dick Durbin and Republican Joe
Walsh, who would you vote for?
Dick Durbin …………………………………………….. 54%
Joe Walsh………………………………………………. 29%
Not sure …………………………………………………. 17%

* Methodology

PPP surveyed 500 Illinois voters from November 26th to 28th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-4.4%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.

Crosstabs are here.

- Posted by Rich Miller        

27 Comments
  1. - Ace Matson - Tuesday, Dec 4, 12 @ 11:41 am:

    It should be “Whom” would you vote for. Doesn’t anybody know grammar anymore?


  2. - Skeeter - Tuesday, Dec 4, 12 @ 11:42 am:

    Durbin is an interesting guy. Against a lot of Dems, I would take a serious look at a moderate Republican like Dold or even Dilliard.

    But Durbin is different. He’s got enough of a history for standing up for this state that he’s a real asset.

    Also, I haven’t spent much time talking to him, but when I have he’s one of the most down to earth people that I’ve met. He’s very likeable personally.

    The GOP may be better off giving him a pass and then putting all the resources into defeating Quinn. Pick your battles. Money spent defeating Durbin will be wasted. Money spent against Quinn/Dem nominee can make a difference.


  3. - shore - Tuesday, Dec 4, 12 @ 11:48 am:

    Dold outspent his opponent, a political neophyte who a lot of democrats didn’t think had a shot of winning, 2-1 and lost. Durbin’s gang of 6 thing failed and he hasn’t offered much, but his two greatest assets are who the republican candidate is and the republican brand.


  4. - 47th Ward - Tuesday, Dec 4, 12 @ 11:55 am:

    Durbin is solid and Illinois is lucky to have him. He’ll be our US Senator for as long as he likes.

    There is no way a top tier GOPer will run against him. It’s political suicide. I expect we’ll see a neophyte millionaire run a vanity campaign and spend way too much money for way too few votes.


  5. - Cheryl44 - Tuesday, Dec 4, 12 @ 11:58 am:

    I’d love to see Joe Walsh waste more GOP money running against Senator Durbin.


  6. - Johnny Q. Suburban - Tuesday, Dec 4, 12 @ 12:02 pm:

    Odd to me that Dold had more statewide name ID than Walsh. Would have guessed Walsh would be by far the more recognizable name.


  7. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Dec 4, 12 @ 12:06 pm:

    The long answer - Aaron Schock for Governor…. Why? Durbin is not beatable. Not today, Not in the next Primary, not in the next General.

    Schock for Governor is the answer to is poll’s question to “How is Durbin doing?” Over 50% & between 13 to 20% Repubs favoring Durbin, again, the answer to the question is Schock for Governor.

    Maybe 7 years from now, it will change, but in the next 23 months look pretty nice for the Senior Senator from Illinois.


  8. - Captain Illini - Tuesday, Dec 4, 12 @ 12:08 pm:

    There is no doubt that Senator Durbin is ultra liberal in his voting record, and he’s a master at demagogic language…so IF there were an opponent, then the logical thing to attach are his long time voting record and presenting an alternative to his many stances, inclusive of everything needing more taxes.


  9. - Rich Miller - Tuesday, Dec 4, 12 @ 12:14 pm:

    ===It should be “Whom” would you vote for. Doesn’t anybody know grammar anymore? ===

    Actually, it should be “For whom would you vote?”


  10. - MrJM - Tuesday, Dec 4, 12 @ 12:18 pm:

    The fact that 55% of respondents are “not sure” about their opinion of Joe Walsh is a reminder that we CapFaxers are a select lot who operate within a rarefied bubble.

    ‘Cause, I mean… Come on, people!

    – MrJM


  11. - dupage dan - Tuesday, Dec 4, 12 @ 12:47 pm:

    Captain Illini, While I agree with your characterization of Durbin, I think you fail to note that his stance on the issues is a fair mirror image of the beliefs of many in this state.

    Just sayin’


  12. - Don Moss - Tuesday, Dec 4, 12 @ 12:54 pm:

    Durbin is one of the best things to happen to Illinois in many many years. My hope is that he rises to become the Senate Majority Leader in the near future.


  13. - Siriusly - Tuesday, Dec 4, 12 @ 1:12 pm:

    Interesting poll. I don’t think it will be enough to convince him to run again though. I think he’s going to retire.


  14. - just sayin' - Tuesday, Dec 4, 12 @ 1:28 pm:

    Pat Hughes and Joe Walsh? Really?

    The gop would be better off slating a ham sandwich. 1st, at least would do no harm. 2nd, I know it would poll better. 3rd, ham sandwich is no has-been.


  15. - RNUG - Tuesday, Dec 4, 12 @ 1:38 pm:

    I’ve never voted for Durbin and probably never will. I knew him back in the 70’s when he was getting started and saw a different side than the public does today.

    But I’ll concede that when he isn’t busy pushing the Dem party national agenda, he does bring home the bacon for Illinois and his staff knows how to do constitutient services … so I understand why people like him.


  16. - wordslinger - Tuesday, Dec 4, 12 @ 1:40 pm:

    DD and Captain Illini, since you both agree that Durbin is “ultra liberal in his voting record, and he’s a master at demagogic language…”, it makes me wonder:

    How would you describe yourselves?

    And DD, you are of the opinion that a majority of Illinoisans are “ultra-liberal” and supporters of “demagogic language?”


  17. - Crime Fighter - Tuesday, Dec 4, 12 @ 1:44 pm:

    It’s good to see the positive comments about Senator Durbin. I’ve worked with Senator Durbin’s staff and found the Senator and his staff to be excellent. Unfortunately, over the years I’ve witnessed alot of unwarranted hostility toward the Senator, even protests at his Springfield home by the shoot, pollute, and swindle crowd here in Sangamon County.
    After seeing the comments and the polling, there may be hope yet for a civilized society.


  18. - dupage dan - Tuesday, Dec 4, 12 @ 2:12 pm:

    Could have been more specific, word. However, Durbin’s past rhetoric as it pertains to actions of those in charge of prisoners at Gitmo is disturbing. Durbin said the highly charged comments on the floor of the senate. He later apologized. Frankly, I think the first remarks reflect his true feelings as opposed to the follow up. Just my opinion.

    If you read my post, however, I pointed out that a “fair number” of Illinoisans supported his positions. How you get from there to a majority is a mystery to me.

    I made no comparison re the rhetoric.


  19. - dupage dan - Tuesday, Dec 4, 12 @ 2:15 pm:

    Sorry, misread my own post. I said “fair mirror image of the beliefs of many in this state”. Beliefs of many does NOT equate to a majority, word.


  20. - CU Voter - Tuesday, Dec 4, 12 @ 2:15 pm:

    Still a lot of Eagles fans out there


  21. - Downstater - Tuesday, Dec 4, 12 @ 3:14 pm:

    I would expected his favorable numbers to have been higher.


  22. - walkinfool - Tuesday, Dec 4, 12 @ 4:30 pm:

    Why compare Durbin to the three strawmen? Dold, Walsh, and Hughes are not credible candidates from the getgo, and the GOP can come up with a dozen better — if any of them wanted to take the personal risk.


  23. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Dec 4, 12 @ 4:56 pm:

    ===… — if any of them wanted to take the personal risk.===

    None will.

    They can read polls, and this is enough to at the bare minimum, make someone pause.


  24. - G'Kar - Tuesday, Dec 4, 12 @ 5:00 pm:

    Joe Walsh is “retiring”? That is a polite way to put it, I suppose.


  25. - RNUG - Tuesday, Dec 4, 12 @ 5:13 pm:

    Crime Fighter @ 1:44 pm,

    What you see is not always what you get if you are one of the powerless “little people”. From multiple incidents involving different members of my immediate family over a 35 year period, at least some of that hostility is warranted.


  26. - park - Tuesday, Dec 4, 12 @ 7:56 pm:

    He’s OK. Has shown courage a number of times since he’s been elected. I’m an R and would vote for him.


  27. - wordslinger - Wednesday, Dec 5, 12 @ 12:24 am:

    Dupage Dan, I wouldn’t dare to question you about ignorant demagoguery.

    You’re the champ.

    But, in this case, I think you’re referring to the time when Sen. Durbin expressed outrage when a few United States soldiers violated the Uniform Code of Conduct.

    There are hundreds of thousands of volunteer soldiers, risking their lives for all of us, every day. I, and most, remain in awe and grateful.

    The soldiers in question that Durbin referred to had counsel, were tried and convicted.

    They were bad people. They did bad things. They abused prisoners of war, in the most perverted ways.

    That’s outrageous. We’re Americans, savvy?. We don’t roll that way.

    We are better than that.

    Durbin said the word “Nazi.” And he was right. The actions of those few criminals were disgusting and perverted, just like the Nazis.

    My folks beat the Nazis and the Commies and chose to cross the ocean to become Americans.

    That’s a great gift, and an awesome responsibility. It means a great deal to me.

    My country, right or wrong. When right, keep it right. When wrong, make it right.

    Leave it better than you found it. That’s the only mission.


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