Capitol Fax.com - Your Illinois News Radar » Here we go again
SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
CapitolFax.com
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
Here we go again

Thursday, Mar 27, 2014

* Tribune

Quinn sought to portray his fiscal blueprint as part of an effort to end a cycle of budget game-playing by his predecessors that left state finances in shambles. He said part of his strategy was the controversial pension overhaul law last year that he argued would dramatically cut retirement costs and let more tax revenue flow to schools, health care and other services.

Rauner contends that Quinn’s pension alterations are too timid and will save the state far less than the governor contends. That argument may have gotten a boost Wednesday when the state’s bipartisan fiscal forecasting agency revised downward by several billion dollars its long-term savings projection for the pension overhaul.

* That snippet may have been based on this Bruce Rauner campaign press release…

On the same day of Pat Quinn’s budget address in which he broke his promise to keep the 67% personal income tax temporary, the Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability released an analysis of the so-called pension reform law that shows it will save $22.6 billion less than was promised when the legislation was passed.

* This isn’t much different than the same stupid canard I dealt with in the subscriber section back in January. Here’s what I wrote back then. Substitute $15 billion with $22.7 billion and adjust everything else and you’ll get the same sort of results…

ONE OF THE DUMBEST ARGUMENTS EVER There’s been much screaming and hollering about how new calculations show that the pension reform law is projected to save $15 billion less than originally advertised last fall when the bill passed.

The complaints are based mainly on a recent Chicago Tribune article entitled “Illinois pension law saves $15 billion less than first thought.” The ultra-conservative Illinois Policy Institute, Bruce Rauner and other pension bill opponents have used the story as ammunition to claim that the law is based on a tissue of lies.

But the premise of that article was completely off base because it looked at the wrong number. The only truly valuable number is what taxpayers will end up shoveling into the pension system. Like everything else, it’s all about the final bottom line.

OK, we’re gonna get into a little math here, but it’s really easy so stay with me a minute.

The basic thing to remember here is that calculations originally showed last fall that pension reforms meant taxpayers would owe the pension systems $220 billion over 30 years. A recalculation with updated numbers, however, showed the total taxpayer obligation is now at $205 billion. That’s really good news, but it’s being irresponsibly spun as bad news.

The original estimates were based on Fiscal Year 2012 data. Without the new pension law, the data showed that taxpayers were on the hook for $380 billion in pension payments over 30 years. The reform law reduced that obligation estimate to $220 billion, which was a 42.1 percent reduction in what the government would have to give the pension funds.

When the numbers were updated to include Fiscal Year 2013 data (which included some pretty high investment returns), the new research found that taxpayers were now on the hook for $350 billion over the next 30 years without the reforms. The reform law would result in a 41.4 percent reduction to just $205 billion.

So, what about that $15 billion difference touted by the opponents? Where does it come from?

It’s not that hard to figure out and here’s an easy little example if you’re still scratching your head.

Let’s say you’re looking for a new watch. You find one at Macy’s that’s originally priced at $109 and is on sale at 40 percent off. You’d save $43.60 for a final price of $65.40. That’s still more expensive than Rauner’s watch, but not a bad deal at all.

But then you go next door to Bergner’s and you see the exact same watch listed at $100 and it’s also on sale for 40 percent off. You’d save $40 with the 40 percent sale, but your final bottom line price would be $60, compared to $65.40 at Macy’s,

It doesn’t take Einstein to figure out the better bottom line deal here. Yeah, your 40 percent “savings” are higher with the more expensive Macy’s watch, but the bottom line price you pay is significantly lower at Bergner’s.

The Policy Institute and Rauner would have you believe that Bergner’s is somehow ripping you off because the sale’s 40 percent reduction amount is lower than Macy’s. But that’s just plainly ridiculous. Who thinks like that?

Discuss.

- Posted by Rich Miller        

24 Comments
  1. - PublicServant - Thursday, Mar 27, 14 @ 9:16 am:

    ===67% personal income tax===

    LOL. What’s a word here, or a word there in the grand scheme of things?…


  2. - I B Strapped - Thursday, Mar 27, 14 @ 9:22 am:

    It’s all Mox Nix anyway when the ISC Jams Madigans scheme and Rauner goes to Plan B next year.


  3. - wordslinger - Thursday, Mar 27, 14 @ 9:28 am:

    The Tribbies should stay away from “numbers” stories. Like Barbie said, “math is hard.”


  4. - Bill White - Thursday, Mar 27, 14 @ 9:32 am:

    === The Policy Institute and Rauner would have you believe that Bergner’s is somehow ripping you off because the sale’s 40 percent reduction amount is lower than Macy’s. But that’s just plainly ridiculous. ===

    In terms of intellectual honesty, this belongs in the same category as counting people who move out of state (and therefore do not receive IL funded Medicaid) as example of Medicaid fraud because the old names and addresses were never purged from the database.


  5. - Grandson of Man - Thursday, Mar 27, 14 @ 9:35 am:

    The key is the strong investment returns in 2013 that lowered the overall taxpayer liability. The entire pension debt model shifted downward in cost, which is good.

    What the IPI and their allies are doing is using reverse psychology. A 67% income tax increase sounds horrible, even though the tax was raised from 3-5%, which still makes us competitive with most tax states. It seems to be the same thing with the $22.6 billion.


  6. - langhorne - Thursday, Mar 27, 14 @ 9:36 am:

    once a campaign gets a headline and/or story they like, it lives on forever. no matter how discredited. even if it is from the bone gap gazette.


  7. - Political Neophyte - Thursday, Mar 27, 14 @ 9:57 am:

    Who thinks like that? The Policy Institute thinks like that.


  8. - train111 - Thursday, Mar 27, 14 @ 10:10 am:

    Who thinks this way? Campaign consultants writing 30 second adds for TV.

    Which is easier to sell a campaign on–Anti-tax, anti-spend, anti-everything hysteria or cold boring facts?
    Most overpaid consultants are going to run away with the first rather than trying to explain the second.


  9. - dupage dan - Thursday, Mar 27, 14 @ 10:13 am:

    Nice explanation - helps those of us (me) who don’t have the inclination to work that out.

    However, why does it matter? Does anyone really think the state gov’t is gonna keep to that schedule? We were all ramped up with Edgars program, how long did that last? The gov’t is gonna wait till this settles down a bit - hopefully, in a few years, folks memories will be a little fuzzy, and the politicians can go back to their previous behavior.


  10. - Palm Tree - Thursday, Mar 27, 14 @ 10:21 am:

    Who thinks this way?
    People who are trying to craft an argument to justify their No vote on the most comprehensive pension reform package in Illinois history. A package that credit rating agencies have praised. A package that if found constitutional reduces total taxpayer costs on pensions by almost half.

    People who initially supported the bill but were told by their financial benefactor to vote No.

    Now they are looking for cover for that No vote. People like Representative McSweeney.


  11. - Yellow Dog Democrat - Thursday, Mar 27, 14 @ 10:54 am:

    More embarrassing reporting from the Tribune…Abdon has a lot of work to do.


  12. - Timmeh - Thursday, Mar 27, 14 @ 10:58 am:

    For someone whose company ran the pension funds, it seems like Rauner doesn’t understand the numbers. Or is willingly distorting them. Either way, that’s not what you want from an “outsider businessman” running for governor.


  13. - MrJM - Thursday, Mar 27, 14 @ 11:09 am:

    Who thinks like that?

    Oh, this has nothing to do with “thinking”…

    – MrJM


  14. - 47th Ward - Thursday, Mar 27, 14 @ 12:55 pm:

    Overheard in the Tribune Tower:

    The numbers all go to eleven. Look, right across the board, eleven, eleven, eleven and…

    Oh, I see. And most amps go up to ten?

    Exactly.

    Does that mean it’s louder? Is it any louder?

    Well, it’s one louder, isn’t it? It’s not ten. You see, most blokes, you know, will be playing at ten. You’re on ten here, all the way up, all the way up, all the way up, you’re on ten on your guitar. Where can you go from there? Where?

    I don’t know.

    Nowhere. Exactly. What we do is, if we need that extra push over the cliff, you know what we do?

    Put it up to eleven?

    Eleven. Exactly. One louder.

    Why don’t you just make ten louder and make ten be the top number and make that a little louder?

    These go to eleven.


  15. - sue - Thursday, Mar 27, 14 @ 1:02 pm:

    Many(including myself) would have no problem leaving the personal tax rate at 5 percent if it had solved the State’s fiscal issues-BUT IT DOESN’T seem to have worked-employment remains stagnant, credit ratings have been slashed; bills remain unpaid and pensions are still grossly underfunded- The problem doesn’t seem to be revenues but spending- Quinn had the benefit of increased tax revenues for 4 years and rather then reduce the State’s deficit- he found a number of programs to expand- Assuming the rate remains at 5- it would be nice to see the legislature bring the spending down to the level where revenues equal outlays


  16. - Rich Miller - Thursday, Mar 27, 14 @ 1:03 pm:

    ===Quinn had the benefit of increased tax revenues for 4 years and rather then reduce the State’s deficit- he found a number of programs to expand===

    Which were?


  17. - titan - Thursday, Mar 27, 14 @ 1:22 pm:

    Who thinks like that?

    A very large portion of the general population are functionally innumerate. They can be made to think like that.


  18. - Demoralized - Thursday, Mar 27, 14 @ 1:44 pm:

    @sue:

    Look forward to your list of cuts that would need to happen if the tax increase expired. The revenue didn’t go to a bunch of new spending. It went to basically maintain and hopefully help keep the ship from completely sinking. Discretionary spending has been cut and cut and cut. They’ve passed legislation to deal with the pension (whether it’s constitutional or not is another question), which is a huge cost driver. I’d be interested to see what additional brilliant ideas you would have to make up for the shortfall if the tax is allowed to expire.


  19. - DuPage - Thursday, Mar 27, 14 @ 1:45 pm:

    If it saves so little then it won’t be missed when the ILSC throws it out!


  20. - jerry 101 - Thursday, Mar 27, 14 @ 1:56 pm:

    Holy stinkbombs Batman! I’m paying a 67% income tax rate in Illinois?!?! Dad gum it!!

    Bruce Rauner. Businessman. Bad at math.


  21. - wordslinger - Thursday, Mar 27, 14 @ 2:19 pm:

    –Bruce Rauner. Businessman. Bad at math–

    Give him a break. He’s just conflicted.

    “…and, frankly, sometimes I disagree with myself.”

    Best. Quote. Ever.

    http://chicago.cbslocal.com/2014/03/21/rauner-enlists-bipartisan-support-in-seeking-new-solutions-for-illinois/


  22. - Driveby - Thursday, Mar 27, 14 @ 3:39 pm:

    I always though that the unfunded liability was the thing to look at. I’ll have to read here more often for a more enlightened viewpoint like this.


  23. - Donkey Dem - Thursday, Mar 27, 14 @ 3:54 pm:

    Cut the Nursing Home’s Mental Health, and the Poor. That’s the why to balance the budget. And Oh, give the unions whatever they want.


  24. - RNUG - Thursday, Mar 27, 14 @ 6:27 pm:

    - wordslinger - Thursday, Mar 27, 14 @ 2:19 pm:

    I pointed that quote out to my wife when I read it in the paper the other day. Probably the most honest thing the man has said …


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


* Madigan taps Maggie Hickey for independent investigation of House
* New photos of the Executive Mansion, and some vintage ones
* Question of the Day
* Wisconsin gerrymandering case punted by Supreme Court
* Morrison defends his handling of SVP arrested twice for child sex crimes
* Rauner campaign launches two new initiatives
* Adventures in data governing
* Higher ed group to continue working this summer
* *** UPDATED x4 *** State Senate candidate once dressed up in blackface for Halloween
* Brady says GOP leveraged balanced budget from nervous Dems
* *** LIVE COVERAGE ***
* Politifact rates Rauner Legionnaires' claim 'False'
* Former 'Chicago Tonight' host Elizabeth Brackett has died
* Yesterday's stories

Support CapitolFax.com
Visit our advertisers...

...............

...............

...............

...............
<


Loading


* Dale Gardner Veterans Memorial Bridge plaque un.....
* Rauner campaign launches two new initiatives..
* Illinois to fund Medicaid preventative dental s.....
* Vote in the Scott Stantis cartoon caption contest..
* State, Lake County Resolutions Critical Of Foxc.....
* History buffs may want to consider a trip to Sp.....
* Instagram posts from Aurora's first ever ga.....
* State, federal governments push for overdose pr.....
* Brady says GOP leveraged balanced budget from n.....
* Illinois Budget Bill Makes Few Tax Changes exce.....


* Canadian man identified in fatal Illinois skydiving accident
* Correction: Skydiver Death-Illinois story
* Records: Trump Tower failed to follow fish protection rules
* Illinois to fund Medicaid preventative dental services
* Mother of man fatally shot by central Illinois police sues
* Search continues for 2 after southern Illinois jail escape
* Indiana residents oppose development of waste facility
* Cleanup of massive central Illinois rock slide begins
* Midwestern states endure flash flooding, heat wave
* New organization that honors black firefighters to open

* Chatham man wins Illinois Bicentennial coin design contest
* Rauner to consider allowing medical cannabis for opioid patients
* Bipartisan work yields gun bills, fate rests with Rauner
* Rauner names Justin Blandford curator of Governor's Mansion
* Rauner names Williamsville woman interim HFS director
* Both Rauner and Pritzker have donated to Mansion renovations
* Both candidates for governor have donated to Mansion renovations
* Illiopolis boy helps push bill to cover hearing aids for kids
* Under the Dome Podcast: AFSCME lawsuits everywhere, #MeToo fallout, governor ad war
* Rauner says more ads coming like one featuring other Republican governors

* Here's what Walgreens' new downtown digs will look like
* Trump: Sanctuary cities order should be limited to Chicago
* Trump administration seeks Supreme Court order on sanctuary cities
* Michigan Avenue penthouse sells for $8 million
* Show us your office!


* At start of LeGrier trial, cop who fired fatal shot defended as ‘reasonable’
* Second driver identified in fatal wrong-way crash on I-57
* Barry Trotz resigns as Capitals’ coach after Stanley Cup win
* Rahm joins parade slamming Trump policy to separate families at US-Mexico border
* FBI’s Wray, Justice Dept. grilled over Clinton email investigation report
* Disney issues seizure warning about ‘Incredibles 2’ for fans with epilepsy
* Emanuel says Amazon ‘really liked’ two Chicago sites
* Chicago, look to the future and go ahead with Elon Musk’s tunnel to O’Hare
* Slave owners and Nazis quote Romans 13 to justify immorality, too
* Body found in burned vehicle in Gary


* Cubs' Javier Baez out against Dodgers, Kris Bryant bats leadoff
* Emanuel: Amazon 'really likes' two Chicago sites
* Hundreds of immigrant children are being held in fenced cages at border facility
* Divided District 64 board seeks committee to weigh in on school resource officer program
* JetBlue founder looks to start new low-cost U.S. airline, reports say
* Porter County cop accused of exposing himself to women
* Trial opens in 2015 police shooting in which bat-wielding teen and bystander killed
* Turano Baking seeks new office building in south Oak Park
* A day before his father sent to prison in Turkey, Knicks' Enes Kanter talked democracy in Mount Prospect
* Rocker Tommy Lee's drama with son Brandon gets ugly on Father's Day


» Illinois Bicentennial Coin Unveiled
» Austin Texas, Like Chicago, Is Struggling With Pedestrian Safety
» Push To Bridge Gender Wage Gap Continues
» Pediatrics For Transgender Kids; ‘Pay What You Can’ Yoga Studio; Illinois Politics
» Dad-isms: Jokes and Lessons Our Fathers Taught Us
» Parkland Survivors Join Chicago Youth, Celebrities At St. Sabina's Peace March
» Why Don’t Chicago Beaches Have A Poop Threshold?
» Furniture From Closed CPS Schools Ends Up In Surprising Places
» Students Go Back In Time To Record On Machine That Democratized Music
» State Week: AFSCME Contract; Abortion Court Fight; Former Madigan Staffer Responds To Accusations


* Chatham man wins Illinois Bicentennial coin design contest
* Rauner to consider allowing medical cannabis for opioid patients
* George Will: Congress suffers arthritic knees from genuflecting to presidential power
* Bipartisan work yields gun bills, fate rests with Rauner
* Bernard Schoenburg: Gov. Rauner owns Sangamon farmland — with somebody
* Bernard Schoenburg: Rauner owns Sangamon farmland — with somebody
* Angie Muhs: New reporter will focus on local business coverage
* Our View: City should not put competing township referendum on ballot
* Faith Coalition for the Common Good: Leaders impact lives of homeless
* Statehouse Insider: Illinois second to Missouri again


* St. Louis Children’s Hospital will show free screening of East St. Louis football doc
* Collinsville man charged with murder in fatal shooting of former neighbor
* Welcome to campus, Ayo
* Shots fired, body found, strange coincidence
* Chatham student designs winning Bicentennial coin
* Illinois to fund Medicaid preventative dental services
* Franklin County town hall to tackle opioid misuse
* BBB warns customers about Rural King, citing 'an underlying pattern of complaints'
* State police investigating after man shot dead by officer during domestic disturbance
* Fire calls


* What suburban members of Congress are saying about Trump immigration policy
* Correction: Skydiver Death-Illinois story
* Report: Shooting in Sweden leaves 4 injured
* H. Clinton: Separating families at border a 'moral crisis'
* Trump admin. asks high court to halt sanctuary cities ruling

* Apartment building with affordable units p...
* The Mothers and Offspring Mortality and Mo...
* Kelly likely to keep seat
* Conway Laments Migrant Family Separation &...
* Berthoud High School second semester honor...
* Luis Gutierrez: GOP Is Using Xenoph...
* How Donald Trump and Chuy Garcia Broke the...
* Lipinski to hold events for 3rd District r...
* Rep. Davis to host military family roundtable
* Peyton Reed Reveals If 'Ant-Man And Th...

* Rebellious Resistance Guide: How to Fight ......
* Monday, June 18, 2018...
* Lvm Capital Management LTD Decreased Its B......
* Great West Life Assurance Company Has Uppe......
* Trump tweets Dems and GOP should get toget......

* Rebellious Resistance Guide: How to Fight ......
* The Democrats' Myopic Reaction to the ......
* Tammy Duckworth for Senate Tammy......
* Our view: GOP group spot on in recent Blag......
* "Senator Tammy Duckworth …&quo......

* The nutty Trump trolls, the Korea agreement and Democrat cold-warriors.
* “They could be murderers and thieves.” Donald Trump.
* Survey: U.S. Public Skeptical That North Korea Will Get Rid of Nukes
* Judicial Watch Sues State Department for Obama-Era Records on Refugee Resettlement Site Locations
* LA Times: High cost of housing drives up homeless rates, UCLA study indicates
* Clark Co joins growing number of Illinois counties passing resolutions upholding Second Amendment
* Talking is better than war.
* Don Hellison.
* 50% oppose sanctuary communities in new Rasmussen poll
* The Weekend In Chicago Rock


* 2017 Wabash County Tentative Multiplier Announced
* Liquor Control Commission Underage Compliance Report for Cook County
* Liquor Control Commission Underage Compliance Report for Will Count
* Multi-State Salmonella Outbreak Linked To Cereal
* PHIL VASSAR AND LOVE AND THEFT ROUND OUT THE DU QUOIN STATE FAIR GRANDSTAND

  
* Tronc to change name back to Tribune Publishing after years of ridicule
* YouTube Music and YouTube Premium are officially launching today, includes more countries
* KCC comes to confirm the existence of an LG smartwatch with Wear OS
* Microsoft says it’s ‘dismayed’ by child separations after criticism over ICE contract
* FCC filing hints at the Moto C2 Android Go smartphone from Motorola
* Google removes Uber integration in Maps with no explanation
* OnePlus’ Kyle Kiang talks OnePlus 6 and record sales

* Cleveland Indians vs. Chicago White Sox lineups for Monday, ...
* White Sox Minor League News and Notes, 6/11 to 6/17
* White Sox Weekly Minor League Update: Week 11
* White Sox Weekly Minor League Update: Week 11
* Robert returns from injury to make pro debut
* Dominguez leads DSL Orioles to 4-0 win over DSL White Sox
* Cleveland Indians: Previewing three-game series against the Whit...


Main Menu
Home
Illinois
YouTube
Pundit rankings
Obama
Subscriber Content
Durbin
Burris
Blagojevich Trial
Advertising
Updated Posts
Polls

Archives
June 2018
May 2018
April 2018
March 2018
February 2018
January 2018
December 2017
November 2017
October 2017
September 2017
August 2017
July 2017
June 2017
May 2017
April 2017
March 2017
February 2017
January 2017
December 2016
November 2016
October 2016
September 2016
August 2016
July 2016
June 2016
May 2016
April 2016
March 2016
February 2016
January 2016
December 2015
November 2015
October 2015
September 2015
August 2015
July 2015
June 2015
May 2015
April 2015
March 2015
February 2015
January 2015
December 2014
November 2014
October 2014
September 2014
August 2014
July 2014
June 2014
May 2014
April 2014
March 2014
February 2014
January 2014
December 2013
November 2013
October 2013
September 2013
August 2013
July 2013
June 2013
May 2013
April 2013
March 2013
February 2013
January 2013
December 2012
November 2012
October 2012
September 2012
August 2012
July 2012
June 2012
May 2012
April 2012
March 2012
February 2012
January 2012
December 2011
November 2011
October 2011
September 2011
August 2011
July 2011
June 2011
May 2011
April 2011
March 2011
February 2011
January 2011
December 2010
November 2010
October 2010
September 2010
August 2010
July 2010
June 2010
May 2010
April 2010
March 2010
February 2010
January 2010
December 2009
November 2009
October 2009
September 2009
August 2009
July 2009
June 2009
May 2009
April 2009
March 2009
February 2009
January 2009
December 2008
November 2008
October 2008
September 2008
August 2008
July 2008
June 2008
May 2008
April 2008
March 2008
February 2008
January 2008
December 2007
November 2007
October 2007
September 2007
August 2007
July 2007
June 2007
May 2007
April 2007
March 2007
February 2007
January 2007
December 2006
November 2006
October 2006
September 2006
August 2006
July 2006
June 2006
May 2006
April 2006
March 2006
February 2006
January 2006
December 2005
April 2005
March 2005
February 2005
January 2005
December 2004
November 2004
October 2004

Blog*Spot Archives
November 2005
October 2005
September 2005
August 2005
July 2005
June 2005
May 2005

Syndication

RSS Feed 2.0
Comments RSS 2.0
WordPress




Hosted by MCS SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax Advertise Here Mobile Version Contact Rich Miller