57 Comments - VanillaMan - Monday, May 5, 14 @ 9:07 am: But I don’t accept that the best solution is to create an Illinois economy where employers reign supreme, the rich get richer and workers suck it up like in the Good Old Days. Boom baby! He had me right up to this point. What a load of biased bull-crap! How can he just step all over his earlier comments with that statement? - RonOglesby - Monday, May 5, 14 @ 9:09 am: he’s right that its not something that just started. But he shows his politics when he builds a strawman just to beat it up. As if there is no in between position of what we have today (over bearing state, and local, regs that hurt and slow business vs “employers reign supreme”. This part of the problem. Really smart folks that should normally be listened to, over simplifying to “its either serfs and kings” or “What we have now!” - Anon - Monday, May 5, 14 @ 9:12 am: I’m with mark brown. People are so quick to criticize, and jump on stories about how awful illinois is. It’s mostly rhetoric and it’s harmful to the general social discourse. I wish our elected officials would spend more time talking about what makes illinois great. I believe it’s due mostly to a hatred and envy of Chicago. Down staters feel ignored and powerless, and collar county folks feel like the little brother that doesn’t get respected. People should just accept chicago for what it is it’s the economic engine for the state of Illinois and the Midwest. It’s a cultural destination. And it’s population dense, which ensures it will drive the political and governmental discourse for years to come. But I don’t believe that is is causing a mass exedous out of illinois. - VanillaMan - Monday, May 5, 14 @ 9:12 am: Dude, that is one heck of a strawman you built! Knock it down! - John A Logan - Monday, May 5, 14 @ 9:17 am: Darren Lubotsky, click the link, pretty sure the scare crow role could be yours. http://www.thephipps.org/events/auditions - reflector - Monday, May 5, 14 @ 9:18 am: I like Illinois. We live in southern Illinois and as much as I like to visit other states I want to live here. I have a son n Texas who is retired and moving back tis summer, I have a son in Oregon who desperatly wants back and I have another son retired from the Army who refused all jobs unless they were in Illinois. - Walker - Monday, May 5, 14 @ 9:19 am: The picture of a large outmigration driven by recent government corruption and a tax increase, is an equally false creation, to Brown’s projected serfdom. - Judgment Day - Monday, May 5, 14 @ 9:20 am: “But I don’t accept that the best solution is to create an Illinois economy where employers reign supreme, the rich get richer and workers suck it up like in the Good Old Days.” He’s obviously never been in the position of a small business, trying to cope with the Secretary of State’s “Business Services” division….. - Allen - Monday, May 5, 14 @ 9:28 am: Blame it on Bush. I mean the Koch Brothers. No its the weather. - hisgirlfriday - Monday, May 5, 14 @ 9:28 am: Beat up on Mark Brown all you want, but this perception of his and Republicans having no counter to it besides attacking the messenger is precisely why Democrats still run things in this state even as the populace is fed up with corruption among those in power and not happy about tax increases. Ironically though, the MJM/Raum Dems have enabled such a pro-corporation at the expense of human people economic transformation almost as much as Rauner would with stuff like the CME giveaway, the neverending ComEd rate increases, the corporatization of Chicago Public Schools, the cannibalization of suburban HQs by taxpayer subsidies to move them downtown, etc… etc… - VanillaMan - Monday, May 5, 14 @ 9:37 am: Beat up on Mark Brown all you want - We are laughing at him. He looks ridiculous. - wordslinger - Monday, May 5, 14 @ 9:42 am: Meh, the next chairman of Berkshire Hathaway, Howard Buffett, could live anywhere in the world. He lives in Decatur and is a volunteer Macon County sheriff’s deputy. Go figure. http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304049904579518203727514762 - Formerly Known As... - Monday, May 5, 14 @ 9:42 am: iirc, the trend is worsening in recent years. That in itself is an important “trend” he overlooks. It also discounts the growing “trends” in the recent polling data we looked at last week. I’m with him concerning our economic equality, but not his highly selective choice of data and perspective. - Responsa - Monday, May 5, 14 @ 9:44 am: It’s really kind of a silly article, isn’t it? I guess I see no reason for Brown to have even written this piece in the first place if he genuinely thinks outward migration from IL is not, or will not be a problem, and is nothing for anybody to be concerned about. Who was his intended audience? Who is it he is trying to convince? - Formerly Known As... - Monday, May 5, 14 @ 9:46 am: Wordslinger - not sure if that article mentions it, but he said in an interview with Charlie Rose that he doesn’t want to lead the family business and lives in Decatur largely because of the excellent soil. Respectfully, I do not understand how one person invalidates the strong, clear opinions we saw of so many in last week’s polls? Should others now submit Jimmy John, etc. as a counter-example? - Frank - Monday, May 5, 14 @ 9:52 am: The truth is somewhere in the middle. It’s harder to find a job right now in Illinois than a lot of other states…particularly for blue collar and unskilled workers. (The studies Brown sites actually show out-migration rates are very low for the more affluent among us.) So, no doubt, some are leaving to find jobs. But this is absolutely part of a long-term trend — something that started with the invention of air conditioning. Illinois has lost Congressional representation due to proportional population loss since the 1950 census. It would be interesting to track population movement over the last half century. My guess is net out-migration from Illinois was higher in the 70’s and early 80’s. - wordslinger - Monday, May 5, 14 @ 9:52 am: –Should others now submit Jimmy John, etc. as a counter-example?– Did JJ leave? He was an Illinois delegate for Romney at last year’s GOP convention. Corporate hq is in Champaign. Illinois has a diverse economy; some areas are doing very well, some not so much and some are in the tank. Around me, the greatest example of an industry in the tank remains construction. When things were going great guns, there were construction cranes everywhere. It seems to be coming back a little, but it’s still nothing like it was for years when condo buildings were going up everywhere and the Greater Loop was crawling with ironworkers. - Yellow Dog Democrat - Monday, May 5, 14 @ 9:54 am: Atleast someone is looking at the data. We can argue about what it means or how to fix it, but atleast we are arguing on facts. A likely explanation is the national migration of manufacturing jobs out of the Midwest. It would be interesting to compare net migration rates with other manufacturing states. i think it is also important to look at strengths…what is drawing college grads to Illinois or keeping them here and how do we do more of it. - wordslinger - Monday, May 5, 14 @ 9:56 am: –It would be interesting to track population movement over the last half century.– Since 1950, the states with the greatest growth in overall population representation, by far, are Florida, California and Texas. The state’s with the greatest losses, by far, are Pennsylvania and New York. - A guy... - Monday, May 5, 14 @ 9:57 am: The first step is recognizing and admitting that you have a problem….Mark Brown is a talented wordsmith who is shopping for rationalization. He found it. It sets us back to not confront the issues everyone knows are real. - Grandson of Man - Monday, May 5, 14 @ 10:08 am: Illinois should try to rebuild itself with strong wages for workers and strong unionization. That is our history, and it worked well for us. We don’t need this race to the bottom stuff, in which people like Rauner try to blackmail us by saying or implying that jobs won’t come unless we strip unions. Somebody has to have guts to stand up to the power of wealthy corporations and individuals who are pumping millions of dollars to politicians and campaigns that are geared toward permanently shifting the political and economic balance of power in their favor. They are pumping millions of dollars to fight health insurance reform. Where else in the world is this happening, and is it a coincidence that we have income inequality that is higher than every first-world country? “Should others now submit Jimmy John, etc. as a counter-example?” They should also submit the example of how the Chicago metro area is leading the nation in corporate investment deals, and how Illinois is ranked much higher in per capita income than even Texas. I agree with Brown and am glad that he gets it. Neil Steinberg has an article in today’s Sun Times, in which he rejects that Indiana is a better place than Illinois. - VanillaMan - Monday, May 5, 14 @ 10:10 am: “Illinois has been a net exporter of people for a long time. These are long-term trends. This isn’t caused by the latest state budget crisis or anything like that,” Lubotsky said. “This isn’t something that just happened in the last 10 years.” What Mr. Brown is saying is simple: The skeptics are right, but we aren’t the cause. - lake county democrat - Monday, May 5, 14 @ 10:32 am: Resident 1%’er Wordslinger’s “we’re just fine, the masses can eat cake - or move” aside, Mark Brown is both right and wrong. California had a massive increase in taxes on the rich and thusfar there’s been no exodus of business. But Toyota’s recent move is a worrisome sign, and there’s also reason to believe that in California the rich and businesses have better reason to see the tax increase as a true investment than here, where they have every reason to think that it’s meant simply to postpone a day of reckoning. Something else wordslinger doesn’t mention: New York, one of those states with the big losses he mentioned, is luring new businesses with ten year tax breaks and other goodies. - RonOglesby - Monday, May 5, 14 @ 10:55 am: — California had a massive increase in taxes on the rich and thusfar there’s been no exodus of business— Not a huge exodus, but also not a huge new business. Their Tech industry is has some rumblings as places like Austin start to hear whispers about “the new valley”. New startups popping up in Austin and of course companies like VMware and others putting more and more people in Austin Tx since its cheaper to build and all of that. Could California have kept more business there… - zatoichi - Monday, May 5, 14 @ 11:05 am: I grew up in the western suburbs and jobs led to living in 4 different states. Every one of them had the the same basic issues that get repeated here endlessly: political corruption, spending too much, taxes/fees/licenses cost too much, people moving away, business regulations, school issues, employment. The grass is always greener elsewhere. Once you get there you realize it still turns brown in the fall. Moved back here to a great job and to be closer to older parents. Is it perfect? No, but what is? Our family events were very large as a kid. Now my cousins are spread all over the country and the world almost all due to jobs/spouse’s family, virtually none left for generally accepted political reasons. - Soccertease - Monday, May 5, 14 @ 11:14 am: Illinois’ new slogan: “Where’s Your Beach?” Oops, Corona beer has already used that. - Anyone Remember - Monday, May 5, 14 @ 11:14 am: As an immigrant to Illinois, don’t underestimate the affect the Illinois climate has on relocation decisions. Best original comment about Springfield? “Too far South for a pleasant Summer, too far North for a pleasant Winter.” - Precinct Captain - Monday, May 5, 14 @ 11:18 am: The Midwest in general is losing folks, Wordslinger is right. http://www.newgeography.com/content/002585-new-census-data-reaffirms-dominance-south - wordslinger - Monday, May 5, 14 @ 11:25 am: It’s easy to track various states changing share of the national population through votes in the electoral college. Go to the link below. Compare each state’s electoral vote from 1948 to 2016 to track how the country has been steadily reshaped south and southwest since WWII. Florida’s share of the population has more than tripled. California’s more than doubled. Texas has been growing rapidly since the 70s. - wordslinger - Monday, May 5, 14 @ 11:26 am: Here’s the link, sorry. http://www.270towin.com/ - Anon - Monday, May 5, 14 @ 11:48 am: The fact is Republicans have pointed to net out migration from IL as the result of Democratic control of state government. The inconvenient truth is that net outmigration didn’t start in 2003. Thanks to Mark Brown for refuting the unfair GOP attack. - lake county democrat - Monday, May 5, 14 @ 12:13 pm: Ron - point taken. My thinking is that Illinois would be thrilled if it could pay some of its debts through a progressive tax falling more on the rich and businesses and just “keep” what we have, though that’s not a good strategy for longer-term growth. PC/Anon - Yes, obviosuly the north has lost population to the south and west in general. What Brown and Steinberg aren’t saying is that it’s a question of who is leaving as well as how many and whether an area loses “per person” wealth porportionate to the population decrease. Detroit’s metropolitan area is still one of the biggest business regions in the nation - the suburbs are not doing too bad, it’s the city that’s a nightmare. Chicago maintained a pretty stable population in the last census, but there were big demographic shifts (Hispanics increasing, African-Americans decreasing). So there’s more to look at than just the raw population numbers. Again: states ARE poaching businesses and attracting new businesses at the expense of other states. To deny that and insist that the appeal of Illinois is inelastic and just hope that inertia keeps people and businesses here would be a mistake. - Formerly Known As... - Monday, May 5, 14 @ 12:33 pm: The Midwest as a whole may be losing population, but that does not explain why Illinois - ranks near last in America for population growth - led the nation in people moving out last year - is a net loser of population to Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Missouri and Wisconsin With all of the natural advantages we have, we should at least be showing a net gain of population to us from the other Midwest states, not a loss. - VanillaMan - Monday, May 5, 14 @ 12:47 pm: Voters want the problem addressed in a way that acknowledges their perception and does something to change the way things currently work in Illinois to counter their perception. You can’t expect Illinois citizens to be cheerleaders for the state when it’s team of leaders refuses to acknowledge the score against the other teams or even acknowledge that Illinois is losing. Why we are losing is secondary. We’re losing! - RonOglesby - Monday, May 5, 14 @ 1:16 pm: Formerly Exactly. For all the advantages we have, And for all the advantages that get touted here whenever the bad numbers come out, someone needs to explain why we seem to be lacking in so many categories and why our growth is in the toilet as compared to surrounding states. There are overall trends north to south, and yes more populated areas will not grow as fast as the up and comers, but to be consistently last in category after category and have so many say “ITS NOT SO!, YOU DONT UNDERSTAND!” is like watching a grand state wide, self delusion in slow motion. - wordslinger - Monday, May 5, 14 @ 1:20 pm: It’s tempting to connect corruption with economic stagnation or decline, but history shows it ain’t always so. Some of the most corrupt times occurred during greatest economic growth. The Gilded Age, the Roaring 20s. Some great fortunes, companies and cities have been built on corruption. Look at Miami. Coke money in the 80s fueled explosive economic growth. - Ahoy! - Monday, May 5, 14 @ 1:22 pm: I have never personally met an employer in Illinois believe that they “reign supreme,” in fact it’s been quite the opposite. I’m sure there are politically connected corporations in this state and large businesses that get sweat heart deals, but that is not the case for the vast majority (over 99%) of employers. - Formerly Known As... - Monday, May 5, 14 @ 1:30 pm: RonOglesby - exactly. In spite of larger demographic trends, we should at least be the “best” of the “worst” in terms of Midwest population growth and migration patterns. Instead, we are now closer to the “worst” of the “worst”. And how are we losing more people to Kentucky, Iowa, etc. than we are gaining? That’s not good. - Demoralized - Monday, May 5, 14 @ 1:42 pm: Seems to be a few of you who just can’t help yourselves when it comes to trashing the state. It’s all doom and gloom for you. If it’s so bad why are you still here? - Anon - Monday, May 5, 14 @ 1:53 pm: == a few of you who just can’t help yourselves when it comes to trashing the state. == It will come to an abrupt stop if Raunuer is elected. Suddenly, chronic critics will see the bright side of everything and attribute it to the Republican in the mansion. - Formerly Known As... - Monday, May 5, 14 @ 1:57 pm: “Love it or leave it”. lol - Formerly Known As... - Monday, May 5, 14 @ 2:01 pm: Or maybe they could… stay in the state they love and try making it a better place to live? Not sure why some are so reticent to acknowledge objective data indicating problems exist. - wordslinger - Monday, May 5, 14 @ 2:26 pm: –Not sure why some are so reticent to acknowledge objective data indicating problems exist.– Problems exist? Geez, sometimes life is one g-d thing after another. I didn’t sign up for this. I’m moving to the place with no problems. - Illiana - Monday, May 5, 14 @ 2:43 pm: The thing that stands out to me about these areas with high outmigration is the cost of living. For example, I have seen some numbers in the past showing the DC metro having some high percentage net outmigration from domestic migration. The DC metro has seen incredible job growth, low unemployment, & high incomes; yet none of these is enough to convince Americans to move there. The region’s population growth is heavily immigration. In Illinois’s case, I would like to see numbers comparing migration & cost-of-living numbers for Chicago v. NW Indiana or the two sides of the St. Louis metro to each other. I suspect things probably still don’t look good, but given how much Chicagoland skews any statewide numbers, I would think something related to cost-of-living (i.e. restrictions on housing development) could greatly improve those matters. I have heard Chicago puts height restrictions on residential developments outside the loop. In addition, I wonder why housing units get shorter when you cross from Chicago into Evanston. - Formerly Known As... - Monday, May 5, 14 @ 2:45 pm: == I’m moving to the place with no problems. == They might not be moving to places with no problems, but they sure are moving. Apparently they see those states as having fewer problems with unemployment, corruption, poor value for high taxes and the other concerns so many Illinoisans recently expressed in nationwide polls. - wordslinger - Monday, May 5, 14 @ 2:51 pm: –For example, I have seen some numbers in the past showing the DC metro having some high percentage net outmigration from domestic migration– I’m not sure where or what you’re seeing. DC Metro is doing a-ok, if growth and wealth is what you’re after. - Formerly Known As... - Monday, May 5, 14 @ 2:53 pm: “The first step to solving a problem is admitting you have one”. If we fail to acknowledge and admit our challenges, how will we address them? If we deny and distract from reality, how will we progress? We’ve got a lot of good things going for us in Illinois. Despite all of those great things, we are grossly underperforming. - wordslinger - Monday, May 5, 14 @ 2:58 pm: –Apparently they see those states as having fewer problems with unemployment, corruption, poor value for high taxes and the other concerns so many Illinoisans recently expressed in nationwide polls. “Other concerns” dominated the survey Rich posted Friday. Covers a lot of ground. Here’s my issue with your doomsayers: you’re alleged small-government types who think government should cure all problems. You’ve hit your heads. In the great scheme of things, I don’t think state governments have much to do with the economy, at all. They have a great deal to do with incarceration, transportation and medication. I don’t think data found within artificial state lines mean much of anything, unless you’re in the poor outliers in old Dixie. - whetstone - Monday, May 5, 14 @ 3:34 pm: It’s worth remembering that the South was handicapped for much of the 20th century by the legacy of slavery and sharecropping. It modernized much later than the north, and was something like a third-world country well into the last century. Plus: air conditioning. Between those, the South/Sun Belt became much more competitive for industry. It doesn’t invalidate the idea that Illinois should be better run, but for decades it wasn’t a fair fight. - Formerly Known As... - Monday, May 5, 14 @ 3:58 pm: == I don’t think state governments have much to do with the economy, at all == In such case, you may wish to read page 62 - http://cgfa.ilga.gov/upload/2014januaryillinoistaxincentivesupdated012914.pdf Or State Regulatory Policy and Economic Development by Robert Tannenwald, Senior Economist and former Vice President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. Those “artificial state lines” mean a very real difference in minimum wage and labor costs; infrastructure; environmental protection and land use; regulation of labor markets and the workplace, as well as worker’s comp costs and unionization rules; energy production, distribution, conservation, availability and cost; freight transport rates and routes; educational opportunities and skilled labor in the workforce; tax rates; and incentives. All of these things help determine everything from site selection for a new business to growth or expansion for an existing business and current employees. Those decisions made by state governments bear a very real, tangible impact on a state’s economy. Those are more than just imaginary lines. - Formerly Known As... - Monday, May 5, 14 @ 4:06 pm: == you’re alleged small-government types == Thanks for assuming and stereotyping while mocking. I have never before been called one of the “small-government types” who have “hit your heads” in light of my strong support for the social safety net, equality of opportunity and the principle that corporations should pay their taxes and stop bleeding Illinois dry. And I’m the one who hit my head? Thanks. - wordslinger - Monday, May 5, 14 @ 4:19 pm: –All of these things help determine everything from site selection for a new business to growth or expansion for an existing business and current employees.– I’ll take your word for it. –Businesses are choosing to invest in the Chicago metro area more than anywhere else in the United States. Last year, the Chicago metropolitan area led the nation in new facilities and expansions, according to Site Selection magazine. The metro area includes nine Illinois counties, one Wisconsin county, and Lake, Porter, Jasper and Newton counties in Indiana.– http://www.nwitimes.com/business/local/chicago-metro-leads-nation-in-major-business-investments/article_3a714a58-b25e-5644-9c1c-d4f9a94118da.html - Yellow Dog Democrat - Monday, May 5, 14 @ 4:40 pm: Rich - I think your readers will enjoy this tool from University of Wisconsin’s Applied Population Laboratory: http://www.netmigration.wisc.edu If you zoom to Illinois specific data, you will see that the migration out of Illinois is the 2000’s is not characteristically different from the 90’s, and neither is as bad as the 80’s. It is also worth noting that the Latino population is rising basically everywhere in Illinois. - Demoralized - Monday, May 5, 14 @ 5:11 pm: ==Last year, the Chicago metropolitan area led the nation in new facilities and expansions, according to Site Selection magazine. == Don’t rain on @FKA’s Illinois has problems parade. - Formerly Known As... - Monday, May 5, 14 @ 6:02 pm: That is one glimmer of good news, but sadly insufficient. Now if we can just do something about - Chicago’s unemployment rate, which is near last for big cities www.bls.gov/web/metro/laulrgma.htm - Illinois’ unemployment rate, which is 49th in America - The unemployment rate for young minorities in Chicago - This www.chicagobusiness.com/article/20140215/ISSUE01/302159988/well-educated-highly-paid-residents-leaving-cook-county - This www.chicagobusiness.com/article/20140419/ISSUE01/304199999/census-people-are-leaving-all-six-chicago-area-counties - Or this www.chicagobusiness.com/article/20140502/BLOGS02/140509951/toyota-ignores-chicago-and-illinois-in-hq-search-why That article is good news, wordslinger, but by no means is it some sort of miraculous panacea. Especially since 5 of those 14 counties are outside of Illinois. A glimmer of good news amid the rest. Let’s hope more like those are on the way. - wordslinger - Monday, May 5, 14 @ 8:54 pm: –That article is good news, wordslinger, but by no means is it some sort of miraculous panacea.– You raised the issues of site selection and expansion. I thought the article addressed those issues more directly than most. I get through most days without expectations of miraculous panacea. - Formerly Known As... - Monday, May 5, 14 @ 9:47 pm: == You raised the issues of site selection and expansion. == Within the broader context of the state of our economy and job growth. Which was brought about by you raising the issue of state governments having much to do with the economy. Simply one facet of a multi-pronged issue, some good, some clearly not so good. Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.