Ignoring undeniable realities
Tuesday, Sep 9, 2014 - Posted by Rich Miller
* From today’s debate…
Rauner was asked whether he was asking voters to take his budget and educations plans on faith since his plans to freeze property taxes and reduce income taxes so far don’t appear to add up.
“We have the money for our schools, if we put it in the schools,” Rauner began, before he was asked to come off of talking points and make his promises add up.
“We close corporate welfare loopholes, we reform our tax code, we cut wasteful spending, we put in regulatory changes to grow the economy,” Rauner offered as ways to balance the budget.
* Um, no. Unless he wants to raise taxes even higher than they are now. From the Center for Tax and Budget Accountability…
On July 17, 2014, Bruce Rauner, the Republican nominee for Governor, released his long anticipated position paper on fiscal policy, dubbed the “Bring Back Blueprint: Jobs and Growth Agenda” (the “Blueprint”). The Blueprint represents candidate Rauner’s most complete policy statement on how to resolve the very real and serious fiscal problems that have plagued Illinois state government for decades.
In summary, those fiscal problems start with a projected deficit of $6.5 billion in the General Fund budget that was enacted for the state’s current fiscal year, FY2015, which began on July 1, 2014 and will end on June 30, 2015. (CTBA’s analysis of the FY2015 budget that passed into law is at available at CTBA’s website www.ctbaonline.org or by clicking here and CTBA’s analysis of the FY2015 budget proposed by Governor Quinn which did not pass the General Assembly is available by clicking here). For context, the projected FY2015 General Fund deficit of $6.5 billion represents 26.4 percent of all spending scheduled for public services this year.1 Unfortunately, running a General Fund deficit is nothing new in Illinois. According to the state Comptroller, this is the 25th consecutive year the state has run a General Fund deficit. That is a problem because $9 out of every $10 of General Fund spending goes to education (Pre-K through higher education, 34 percent), healthcare (29 percent), human services (19 percent), and public safety (7 percent).
Moreover, without a change in law, the General Fund deficit will worsen materially in FY2016. That is because the temporary state income tax rate increases passed as part of the Taxpayer Accountability and Budget Stabilization Act of 2011 (TABSA) are scheduled to phase-down, from 5 percent to 3.75 percent for the personal income tax, and from 7 percent to 5.25 percent for the corporate. Both state income tax rates will phase-down commencing on January 1, 2015, which is halfway through the state’s current fiscal year. This means the revenue loss from the rate phase-down is somewhat mitigated this year, as it will only pertain for six months. In FY2016, however, the lower income tax rates will be fully in effect for the whole year, causing significantly greater revenue loss. The net result will be that in FY2016, the state will realize a loss of revenue of around $3 billion from FY2015 levels—on top of the extant $6.5 billion deficit. [Emphasis added.]
But there’s plenty of money to go around.
Right.
* The CTBA also analyzed Rauner’s plan to cut nearly a billion dollars out of the budget and concluded that it would save a tenth of that.
- Anon - Tuesday, Sep 9, 14 @ 12:26 pm:
Rauner is clearly a Reagan Republican. He uses the same voodoo economics as the Gipper. Like Reagan, Rauner relies upon the unproven premise that tax cuts create jobs and that a nation or state can grow itself out of huge deficits while slashing taxes.
- Formerly Known As... - Tuesday, Sep 9, 14 @ 12:26 pm:
After Governor Quinn asked for a 1 percent “education surcharge”, got twice that amount, and then cut education funding anyhow…
I no longer believe anything candidates from any party say about their concern for education.
- Chicago Cynic - Tuesday, Sep 9, 14 @ 12:27 pm:
This is great work done by Ralph and his folks. Bruce Rauner is betting that nobody is going to push him on his math problem so he can ride out his Santa Claus approach all the way to election day. If today is any indication, he may not be so lucky. We’ll see if the Quinnsters finally craft this into a message beyond, “Bruce is rich.”
- VanillaMan - Tuesday, Sep 9, 14 @ 12:27 pm:
“We close corporate welfare loopholes, we reform our tax code, we cut wasteful spending, we put in regulatory changes to grow the economy,” Rauner offered as ways to balance the budget.
What an amazing set of ideas! It is like the money is right there! I can taste it! We just have to do those things and we can have that cake and eat it too.
How much longer do we need to hear gubernatorial candidates tell us this crap?
- VanillaMan - Tuesday, Sep 9, 14 @ 12:31 pm:
Like Reagan, Rauner relies upon the unproven premise that tax cuts create jobs and that a nation or state can grow itself out of huge deficits while slashing taxes.
Don’t drag Reagan into this.
- Rich Miller - Tuesday, Sep 9, 14 @ 12:32 pm:
===and then cut education funding anyhow===
If you count the federal stim money disappearing, then, yeah, he cut education funding.
- steve schnorf - Tuesday, Sep 9, 14 @ 12:32 pm:
“We close corporate welfare loopholes, we reform our tax code, we cut wasteful spending, we put in regulatory changes to grow the economy,” Rauner offered as ways to balance the budget.
I believe Bruce Rauner is absolutely correct here, IF:
“reforming the tax code” includes going to a progressive income tax and getting serious about applying the sales tax to services
“closing corporate loopholes” is something he is serious about
he can identify a significant amount of “wasteful spending” he will cut–let’s say half a billion
- Chicago Cynic - Tuesday, Sep 9, 14 @ 12:37 pm:
Brooke, repeat after me. Bruce Rauner is Santa Claus. Bruce Rauner is Santa Claus.
- frustrated GOP - Tuesday, Sep 9, 14 @ 12:39 pm:
Maybe he has some ways we will invest the state’s money to increase return. oh, wait, we need to have cash on hand to do that, and we don’t. oh well
- Anon - Tuesday, Sep 9, 14 @ 12:40 pm:
== I believe Rauner is correct if “reforming the tax code” includes going to a progressive income tax. ==
There are no GOP votes for a graduated income tax. Conservatives much prefer our highly regressive state and local tax system that soaks the poor — tho they never call that “class warfare.”
- wordslinger - Tuesday, Sep 9, 14 @ 12:43 pm:
–“We close corporate welfare loopholes, we reform our tax code, we cut wasteful spending, we put in regulatory changes to grow the economy,” Rauner offered as ways to balance the budget.–
Sounds like a plan?
Where is it?
It’s like the old Steve Martin bit: “You can be a millionaire and never pay taxes.”
“How? First, get a million dollars…..”
- Carl Nyberg - Tuesday, Sep 9, 14 @ 12:52 pm:
Are Republicans starting to be held accountable for spewing empty dishonest claims on campaign trail?
Or is Rauner just so overtly dishonest that it’s hard to overlook?
- Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Sep 9, 14 @ 12:56 pm:
===Or is Rauner just so overtly dishonest that it’s hard to overlook?===
There is your answer to your question, for me.
It’s Blago, with his own cash, just say what gets me elected, facts or no facts….
Now multiply that for Blago and Rauner by 10, versus your standard campaign promise spiel
- Carl Nyberg - Tuesday, Sep 9, 14 @ 12:57 pm:
I canvassed a Republican mom on northwest side for a candidate for alderman.
This woman had one child in CPS and another about to start. Her husband worked for City of Chicago in the events planning department.
She was convinced Rauner was going to make new money appear because he’s smart about money and that’s why he’s rich.
Since she was inclined to vote for my candidate for alderman, I just let her speak.
But there are a bunch of fools out there.
Rauner didn’t get rich b/c he smart about money. He got rich diverting public money to his personal bank account.
Rauner isn’t going to make the State of Illinois rich. Rauner’s going to make a bunch of money managers rich and leave Illinois taxpayers paying the bill.
- Norseman - Tuesday, Sep 9, 14 @ 12:58 pm:
Nothing surprising here for the Rich readers. The Raunerbots will ignore the information or obfuscate, but the information is for all to judge.
The problem is that the mainstream IL media are not doing a good enough job to call out the Raunervich baloney. This guy is a snake oil salesman and a lot of folks are buying. If he wins, will discover how big a liar this guy is!
- Carl Nyberg - Tuesday, Sep 9, 14 @ 12:59 pm:
On some days Blago wanted to be Huey Long (minus 35 points of IQ). Huey Long was exceptionally smart and focused.
On most days–like the day Blago voted to cut the inheritance tax–Blago was our for Blago.
- Carl Nyberg - Tuesday, Sep 9, 14 @ 1:01 pm:
Rauner is a lightweight on public policy.
Rauner makes the mediocrity on Chicago’s City Council look like serious students of public policy.
I’m glad the media is sniffing out how unserious Rauner is about issues.
But it did take the media overly long to figure out Blagojevich was a turkey.
- Fitz - Tuesday, Sep 9, 14 @ 1:13 pm:
$6.5 billion deficit? Figure 3 from the report shows this as an FY 14 carryover (debt) and a balanced FY15 revenue to appropriation. Has anyone proposed a budget that pays the backlog to $0 at end of FY 15?
- Langhorne - Tuesday, Sep 9, 14 @ 1:27 pm:
BVC is blago, but with money.
Quinn is blago 2.0
BVC is blago 3.0
- Skeptic - Tuesday, Sep 9, 14 @ 1:56 pm:
Baron VW Carhart may be as much of an empty-suited narcisist as Blago, but is he the sociopath that made Blago special?
- Peoria guy - Tuesday, Sep 9, 14 @ 2:02 pm:
Wow! The contrast was on full display today.
On one side, a corrupt failed governor who’s broken every promise he made. On the other, Bruce and Evelyn with their vision to shake up Springfield and bring back Illinois.
Hands down, Bruce and Evelyn won today’s debate before the Chicago Tribune Editorial Board. And you can bet Pat Quinn will only grow more desperate in the days ahead. Will you help us prepare for his desperate attacks with a donation of $25, $50, $100, $250, $500, or even $1,000?
Pat Quinn’s been dodging questions for months about his 67% tax hike, record job losses, cuts to education and rampant corruption. But today he had nowhere to run when confronted with his record.
Voters were reminded what Rod Blagojevich and Pat Quinn have done to our great state. And they were presented with a clear alternative in Bruce Rauner: lower taxes, more jobs, world-class schools and term limits.
After Pat Quinn’s embarrassing performance today, we should expect his allies will only grow more desperate in their attacks. The special interests that run Springfield know their hold on power is slipping away – and we need to be ready to respond.
Can you help us prepare for Pat Quinn’s desperate attacks with a donation of $25, $50, $100, $250, $500, or even $1,000?
Thank you for all you’ve done – and for all you will do
- Skeptic - Tuesday, Sep 9, 14 @ 2:10 pm:
Wow, I’m surprised Rich let Peoria guy @2:02 through with that little number
- wordslinger - Tuesday, Sep 9, 14 @ 2:17 pm:
Peoria Guy, buy an ad, you cheap hack.
- Cassandra - Tuesday, Sep 9, 14 @ 2:23 pm:
What all this says to me is that neither candidate will have much room to maneuver on taking office. The same gooey financial mess, brought on by gubernatorial predecessors, will plague both. Both will have to extend the tax increase for a while. Both will likely have to deal with court rejection of recent pension reform. Doesn’t matter what they say. Quinn will probably try for a permanent increase. Rauner, who will have to work with a Democratic legislature, may go for a temporary extension. After that, who knows. We sure won’t know any more before the election. There is no more real new information coming in, only hype.
- MrJM - Tuesday, Sep 9, 14 @ 2:26 pm:
Peoria Guy,
The distant whistling sound that you hear is the Hammer.
– MrJM
- Wowser - Tuesday, Sep 9, 14 @ 2:30 pm:
People don’t want the truth. That’s why Rauner’s pixie dust is being snorted by a fed up populace. Two interesting takeaways for me— Rauner all in on bashing MJM and Rauner’s criticism that Quinn “cut peoples pensions!”
- paddyrollingstone - Tuesday, Sep 9, 14 @ 2:34 pm:
On some days Blago wanted to be Huey Long (minus 35 points of IQ). Huey Long was exceptionally smart and focused.
My favorite Huey Long story:
The first time that Huey P. Long campaigned in rural, Latin, Catholic south Louisiana, the local boss who had him in charge said at the beginning of the tour: “Huey you ought to remember one thing in your speeches today. You’re from north Louisiana but now you’re in south Louisiana. And we got a lot of Catholic voters down here. “I know,” Huey answered. And throughout the day in every small town Long would begin by saying: “When I was a boy I would get up at six o’clock in the morning on Sunday, and I would hitch our old horse up to the buggy and I would take my Catholic grandparents to mass. I would bring them home, and at ten o’clock I would hitch our old horse up again, and I would take my Baptist grandparents to church.” The effect of the anecdote on the audience was obvious, and on the way back to Baton Rouge that night the local leader said admiringly: “Why Huey, you’ve been holding out on us. I didn’t know you had any Catholic grandparents.”
“Don’t be a damned fool,” replied Huey, “We didn’t even have a horse.”
- olddog - Tuesday, Sep 9, 14 @ 2:36 pm:
=== Wow! The contrast was on full display today.
On one side, a corrupt failed governor who’s broken every promise he made. On the other, Bruce and Evelyn with their vision to shake up Springfield and bring back Illinois. ===
Well, I guess we all see what we want to see in these debates …
For what it’s worth, I thought all the candidates presented themselves better in person than you’d expect from the paid media. Quinn displayed that he’s as knowledgeable about legislative issues as you’d expect in a sitting governor, and Rauner displayed that he can deliver a well-practiced sales pitch, with occasional flashes of what looked like sincerity in between the smirking and laughing. So I guess partisans of both have plenty of reason to think their guy won the debate.
But if there was a “winner” this morning, I thought it was Paul Vallas. He said unequivocally that he supports the public schools, helping to clarify an issue where some of us have had our doubts about him, and he was able to explain clearly and convincingly why Rauner’s pension reform proposal is actuarially unsound. I’m still nervous about Vallas’ involvement with corporate school reform, but at least he displayed the understanding of state government finance you’d expect from a former director of the Illinois Economic and Fiscal Commission.
And Evelyn what’s-her-name had a cute comment about how her running mate dresses.
- Robert the Bruce - Tuesday, Sep 9, 14 @ 3:02 pm:
Notepassing is not allowed at debates. Are calculators also not allowed?
- Mighty M. Mouse - Tuesday, Sep 9, 14 @ 3:11 pm:
===Baron VW Carhart may be as much of an empty-suited narcisist as Blago, but is he the sociopath that made Blago special?===
Yes. Just as clearly, if not more so. I pointed out months ago that he’s what Dr. Robert Hare would call a “sub-clinical” (or partial) psychopath. His constant lying is just one of about 15 identifying traits that Rauner exhibits, either somewhat or a lot. Psychopath and sociopath mean the same thing.
- Peoria guy - Tuesday, Sep 9, 14 @ 3:17 pm:
Hey, I did not post that as an ad—It was Rauner’s e-mail to his followers. I thought people would want to see it and comment on how silly it was. Rich can obviously delete it but it was meant as a post, not an ad.
- Peoria guy - Tuesday, Sep 9, 14 @ 3:19 pm:
Anybody who has read my posts the last month knows I am no Rauner supporter.
- walker - Tuesday, Sep 9, 14 @ 3:36 pm:
Fitz: Keep reading. It goes on to point out that even if we assume some of Rauner’s most optimistic claims come true, the budget is still billions away from balancing, (beyond any carryover).
- FormerParatrooper - Tuesday, Sep 9, 14 @ 4:02 pm:
Neither has a realistic budget plan. It would also take the GA to pass something as well. So I see most of this as political bluster.
I don’t feel there is anyone to vote for. I wonder if OW would mind if I wrote him in on the ballot?
- Percival - Tuesday, Sep 9, 14 @ 4:35 pm:
Not only is Rauner’s plan self-levitating, The Chicago Progressive Caucus just announced a plan for universal pre-school for Chicago children under 5 years old. They want to pay for it from “surplus” TIF funds (the money was not taken from taxpayers for preschools) renegotiating toxic waste deals and a new financial transaction tax(?). I now think all the politicians have gone nuts over pandering with new spending. They keep doing this because the voters keep buying into it, despite a City 2013 deficit of what - $290 million or so? - and school closings on the way. Are there any adults in sight?
- olddog - Tuesday, Sep 9, 14 @ 4:36 pm:
@ Peoria guy 3:17 and 3:19
Thanks for clarifying. My comment regarding the substance of Rauner’s email stands.
- forwhatitsworth - Tuesday, Sep 9, 14 @ 7:35 pm:
Sounds like Peoria Guy is already smoking medical marijuana!
- Just the Way It Is One - Wednesday, Sep 10, 14 @ 1:48 am:
Ha! Rauner’s comment about closing Corporate Loopholes in the Tax Code is absolutely hilarious, coming from one who’s played the Tax System for years as a Billionaire, to the point of figuring out how even not to pay ANY Social Security or Medicare Taxes for those couple of years, not to mention the millions he’s no doubt finalgled into keeping for himself from the usual Corporate Tax obligations…!
- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Sep 10, 14 @ 8:44 am:
- FormerParatrooper -,
Go right ahead, see - Norseman - for your yard sign.
- Grandson of Man - Wednesday, Sep 10, 14 @ 9:36 am:
Last night I saw a Rauner property tax freeze ad on TV. He’s doubling down on this bad policy idea.