Schneider now facing a likely primary opponent
Tuesday, Mar 17, 2015 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Lynn Sweet with the scoop…
Highland Park Mayor Nancy Rotering is jumping in the 10th Congressional District race for Congress, triggering a major 2016 Democratic primary brawl with former Rep. Brad Schneider, D-Ill.
“I’m definitely running,” Rotering told me in a phone interview on Monday. […]
Looking ahead to her congressional bid, Rotering said, “I believe that people will be excited when a woman runs.” […]
When it comes to name ID, Schneider is at 88 percent [according to a poll conducted for Schneider’s campaign], compared with Rotering at 25 percent. In a head-to-head, Schneider overwhelms Rotering at 56 percent to 12 percent.
Among the Democrats most likely to vote in a primary, Schneider gets 60 percent. The survey was of 430 likely Democratic voters in the 10th, conducted on March 11-12, with a margin of error of 4.7 percentage points.
* Roll Call…
In her announcement, Rotering seemed unmoved by the prospect of a primary.
“Exploring this Congressional run proved that my background, experience and energy are what the residents of the 10th District want and need,” Rotering said in a release. “I am running because of the strong support I have received within and outside of the District.”
But a primary could be problematic for Democrats.
This district, located in the Chicago media market, is one of the state’s most expensive. A contested primary could force Democrats to spend vital resources on each other, rather than on beating Dold, a top target in 2016.
Though the Republican won in 2014, this district historically leans Democratic in presidential years.
* The Hill…
The primary also has the potential to pit two major Democratic groups against one another. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has been in talks with Schneider and often backs former members of Congress who are making comebacks, while Rotering has the type of profile that the deep-pocketed EMILY’s List looks for in a candidate.
* The NRCC reacts…
Hi There,
Pull up a chair and grab some popcorn. Highland Park Mayor Nancy Rotering just announced that she will be challenging DCCC favorite Brad Schneider for the Democratic nomination in IL-10 in what is sure to be a bloody primary.
Only minutes into the process, both sides are already sniping at each other, with Rotering dismissing “Washington friends of Brad” and Schneider releasing a poll showing him far ahead, for now.
The press is already outlining how this development hurts Democrats’ chances in the district, saying that a messy primary will “force Democrats to spend vital resources on each other” instead of the general election in the expensive Chicago media market. Rotering has gone so far as to dump $200k of her own money into the race, ensuring that this fight goes into the final rounds.
Rotering is also signaling that she will make gender an issue, saying she believes “that people will be excited when a woman runs.”
NRCC Comment: “Democrats are gearing up for a bloody primary in the 10th District, which will waste resources and undoubtedly hurt their chances in the general election. It’s time to sit back and grab some popcorn, because this primary is about to get ugly.” –NRCC Spokesman Zach Hunter
- Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Mar 17, 15 @ 9:58 am:
Primaries never help in marshaling resources to a General Election.
Run ‘em all.
However, Emiliy’s List v. DCCC? Two heavyweights. It will be interesting, and the gender issue will be front and center.
Hmm…Schneider need another woman to jump in…?
- Shore - Tuesday, Mar 17, 15 @ 10:01 am:
All schneider has to do to win this is send out one mailing with what happened to the movie theater Rotering sank $3 million of taxpayer resources into that the city still hasn’t been able to get anything out of and this race will be over-not that she has a chance.
This just cost democrats the seat. kudos to congressman re-elect Dold.
- hisgirlfriday - Tuesday, Mar 17, 15 @ 10:04 am:
Schneider just isn’t a very inspiring candidate IMO. Not sure if a primary is the worst thing for dems here if rotering can provide a better contrast with dold and is halfway decent on the stump.
- I hate Ravinia - Tuesday, Mar 17, 15 @ 10:06 am:
I will grab some popcorn and enjoy the fireworks. Will AIPAC be involved at all in the Dem Primary? Who will Jan Schakowsky endorse?
- ZC - Tuesday, Mar 17, 15 @ 10:09 am:
There’s really not gonna be that many competitive House seats nationwide in 2016. Still fewer where the basic playing field favors the Democrats (although having Kirk running again ought to help out Dold).
Whoever comes out of this Dem primary will thus get plenty of outside spending help. There’s going to be so much money flying around in 2016, with relatively few really competitive places to stash it, money isn’t going to be the #1 problem I predict. Intra-party bloodying up might matter, of course.
- Responsa - Tuesday, Mar 17, 15 @ 10:11 am:
Yesss! Looking forward to watching this intra party fight. Rotering’s emphasis that she’s a female and that “people will be excited when a woman runs”, seems bizarrely arrogant considering that there’s already a long-time woman congressperson in the district just immediately to her south. Looking at the composition of the U.S. House of Representatives suggests that the ladies are not exactly an endangered species there, either.
- John A Logan - Tuesday, Mar 17, 15 @ 10:12 am:
Taking a page out of the Republican play book. Brilliant!
- hisgirlfriday - Tuesday, Mar 17, 15 @ 10:13 am:
Do you have a link to that shore?
- Wordslinger - Tuesday, Mar 17, 15 @ 10:14 am:
The communications from the national Congressional campaign committees are just awful, juvenile, pointless and dreary.
Just like Congress.
- Meanderthal - Tuesday, Mar 17, 15 @ 10:14 am:
I’ve met Rogering on a few occasions. Very political ambitious. People think towns and villages in the northern suburbs are awash in funds for municipal services and they are not. She should stay put as Mayor or resign to run for Congress so people in that community can have the full attention of their Mayor during the difficult times that lay ahead.
- A guy - Tuesday, Mar 17, 15 @ 10:16 am:
Brad Schneider; to know him is to…dislike him. Watch this polling lead shrink in less than 5 minutes.
- hisgirlfriday - Tuesday, Mar 17, 15 @ 10:18 am:
@responsa: I get being turned off by gender-based identity politics appeals but your retort implying no one should care about getting more women in office because they aren’t as “endangered species” comes off just as tone deaf as you think rotering s gender appeal does.
- Responsa - Tuesday, Mar 17, 15 @ 10:30 am:
his girl friday–I sincerely and genuinely believe candidates should run on and be voted for because they have the best overall qualifications and ideas to represent their district–not to reward whatever special identity group they represent. I understand that not everyone views politics in this manner. But I think most people in the 10th do.
- ZC - Tuesday, Mar 17, 15 @ 10:31 am:
Wordslinger,
I basically agree but the barriers to communication between the candidates and the outside groups are completely crumbling. You could almost knock them over with a Q-tip these days.
Whoever comes out of this primary, they post all the stock footage, all the messages, all the validating research they want outside groups / party committees to run on their behalf - “we would really love it, if somebody out there just ran X ad / communication, that really plays to our district” - and if the DCCC (or whoever) is smart they’ll pick it up and run with it. Of course they could mess it up.
- Formerly Known As... - Tuesday, Mar 17, 15 @ 10:33 am:
==I believe that people will be excited when a woman runs==
Sorry. Strong candidates are exciting to me, not their gender.
- Gooner - Tuesday, Mar 17, 15 @ 10:45 am:
Have to agree with Responsa on that one.
Starting off with “vote for the woman” is an unforced error that will rub some the wrong way. Does that mean that as a male, I should vote for her opponent?
And “excited when a woman runs?” That sounds weird on many levels.
Not a good start for her.
- Wensicia - Tuesday, Mar 17, 15 @ 10:49 am:
I think Rotering is smart to run in a strong female gender year. It’s possible both Hillary Clinton and Tammy Duckworth (for senator) will run on this ticket.
- Just Observing - Tuesday, Mar 17, 15 @ 10:57 am:
Maybe poll respondents are just claiming to have heard of her, but I have a hard time believing Rotering has 25 percent name ID already. Highland Park comprises about five percent of the congressional district and I highly doubt many people know of her (or any suburban mayor) outside of their own town.
- Shore - Tuesday, Mar 17, 15 @ 11:01 am:
-Ask Julie Hamos, Jay Footlik and so many other fun also rans how easy it is to beat a previous congressional candidate for office. yes duckworth beat cegelis but that was with institutional support Rotering won’t have.
-That theater debacle is easy to understand will crush whatever credentials Rotering thinks she has. She’s not a lefty-that angle is gone. Schneider has a track record on womens issues and will have the backing of the first female speaker and Jan-that angle is gone. She has no national security (Israel) experience-Schneider was on the HIRC-yeah we’re giving it the name Henry Hyde used for it. Rotering’s one angle is Schneider’s a loser-and he can argue that away by pointing out he won in 2012. She also inherited $ so the self made millionaire thing isn’t true. Add in the fact Emilys List has been slaughtered around the country of late.
-National Democrats have to be fuming that one of the seats they were counting on winning-this is the most democratic seat in the country held by a house goper they’ll have to fight a nasty primary to get. They’re already whining that Hillary’s campaign is sucking away attention and $ from Hill fundraising efforts and even if Rotering does prevail they’ll be bitterness that she wasted whatever time and $ Schneider got from national party.
Looking forward to enjoying the show, Party on Wayne!
- Amalia - Tuesday, Mar 17, 15 @ 11:04 am:
oh Tenth Dems. find a smarter way to win.
- walker - Tuesday, Mar 17, 15 @ 11:16 am:
Amalia: amen to that
- slow down - Tuesday, Mar 17, 15 @ 11:29 am:
It would be foolish for Schneider or Dold to underestimate Rotering. She has a far more impressive resume than either of those two, is very smart, and has been a very effective campaigner in her relatively short time in elective politics.
- hockey fan - Tuesday, Mar 17, 15 @ 11:32 am:
Shore- nice try but she didn’t buy that theater that was her predecessor.
I think she can beat schneider because his support is very shallow and I think she is a much better campaigner. His last race was lackluster.
- Formerly Known As... - Tuesday, Mar 17, 15 @ 11:40 am:
==She has a far more impressive resume than either of those two==
She was elected to Congress before? /s
- Almost the Weekend - Tuesday, Mar 17, 15 @ 11:53 am:
The DCCC since Rahm left has continued to make terrible long term decisions. Short-term it’s smart having Schneider run again because he will be able to hit the ground running, but nobody on the DCCC is on the ground in this district. He is not impressive especially compared to Rotering. Wouldn’t be surprised to see her win this by 5+ points in the primary. The campaign money deficit might be an issue, but with Hillary on top of the ticket those coat tails will makeup the difference.
Side Note: Money might not even be a factor. Look at what Emily’s List did for Bustos in the primary in 2012.
- lake county - Tuesday, Mar 17, 15 @ 12:01 pm:
No matter who the Democrats nominate, they have a big advantage in a presidential year. No comparison between Lake County GOP, etc. and a Democratic campaign, Tenth Dems, etc.
- slow down - Tuesday, Mar 17, 15 @ 12:41 pm:
Formerly Known As, she hasn’t served in Congress but she has an impressive resume. Degrees from Stanford (BA), Northwestern (MBA) and Chicago (JD), a career that includes stops at GM, McDermott, Will & Emery, and the HP city council, and this is all while raising 3 or 4 kids. She’s impressive.
- Lake County 2.0 - Tuesday, Mar 17, 15 @ 12:52 pm:
“lake county” I hope that is the light that you view the Republican’s in the 10th with. Dold completely out organized Brad. Lake County GOP made serious headway on early vote/VBM and schocked the 10th dems when 7,000 vbm requests went to Willard in Cook. It won’t be enough but things are moving along to expand. And you think Hillary is the key to victory? Please, I’ve seen more charisma and connection in Brad!!
- Lake County 2.0 - Tuesday, Mar 17, 15 @ 12:52 pm:
Sorry, Willard in Lake.
- Amalia - Tuesday, Mar 17, 15 @ 12:58 pm:
@ Walker, your ideas?
- Precinct Captain - Tuesday, Mar 17, 15 @ 12:59 pm:
==- Responsa - Tuesday, Mar 17, 15 @ 10:30 am:==
That’s right, white men never got anything handed to them, so all these girls and minorities should just pipe down!
- Rahm's Parking Meter - Tuesday, Mar 17, 15 @ 1:04 pm:
I like Nancy and Brad. I have been known as a 10th Booster (Though the Tenth Dems never stop figuring out ways to shoot themselves in the foot for ego)…
I am staying neutral and out of this primary. I have supported Brad in the past and if he wins, he has my loyal support… If Nancy wins, same thing..
- Sue - Tuesday, Mar 17, 15 @ 1:07 pm:
Just what we need. Another progressive who wants to spend money we don’t have
- VanillaMan - Tuesday, Mar 17, 15 @ 1:17 pm:
Schneider ran an awful campaign. Condescending, insulting and polarizing.
Someone else.
- ZC - Tuesday, Mar 17, 15 @ 1:59 pm:
>> Just what we need. Another progressive who wants to spend money we don’t have
Correct me if I’m wrong, but I was under the impression there was quite a bit of money, in IL-10.
Sorry, troll bait, but I couldn’t resist.
- Springfieldish - Tuesday, Mar 17, 15 @ 2:08 pm:
I hope folks realize that the annoying ads with the snooty couple were DCCC ads, not out of Schneider’s campaign and over an objection as to their tone.
Posts like this one bring out all the Dold trolls.
Frankly, a primary might be a good thing for either Rottering or Schneider. She really is an impressive municipal leader. That theater knock is baloney, it was a deal made by her predecessor, and if it was such a big negative for her, why no candidate running against her for mayor? Me thinks the Dold folks are feeding whatever they can to some of the commentators above.
- All ears - Tuesday, Mar 17, 15 @ 2:36 pm:
Brad won a contested primary in 2012 and still beat Dold. 2016 is a presidential year and that will favor Brad or Nancy regardless of which one wins the primary.
- Demoralized - Tuesday, Mar 17, 15 @ 2:48 pm:
==Just what we need. Another progressive who wants to spend money we don’t have==
Did the NRCC call you up and tell you to post that here? Sheesh. Nothing like the drive by trolling.
- Sue - Tuesday, Mar 17, 15 @ 3:35 pm:
If truth is what you are looking for-Nancy ran a pretty ugly campaign for her first run at mayor blaming the then sitting mayor who is a pretty well respected and competent fiscal conservative for everything but the Kennedy assassination. Get ready for nasty with a capital N if Schneider runs in the primary
- 'Goose - Tuesday, Mar 17, 15 @ 5:25 pm:
Interesting that David Hoffman is immediately on board. COuld it be because Nancy spent hundreds of thousdands of HP taxpayer money for Hoffman and Sidley Austin to “investigate” her predecessor’s actions regarding the HP Theatre. The investigation findings were never released, so it was truly a waste of tazpayer money going right to Hoffman and his law firm. Seems very transactional of both Hoffman and Rotering to me.
- anon - Tuesday, Mar 17, 15 @ 6:57 pm:
Both Schneider and Rotering are extremely uninspiring. 10th Dems need to find someone with a little more to them.
- Springfieldish - Tuesday, Mar 17, 15 @ 8:31 pm:
You meant Rottering, didn’t you, Sue? Yeesh, I bet it was difficult to type and keep things strait with all the Dold calls interfering with you trying to post.
Love the shift, though. First it was the theater that was the problem, but then, oops, no, it was she was nasty.
We get it. You’re Dold with a capital D which rhymes with T which stands for troll.
- Nica - Tuesday, Mar 17, 15 @ 10:21 pm:
Who is more progressive; Rotering or Schneider? That’s my pick.