Today’s number: 0.07 percent
Thursday, Mar 26, 2015 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Greg Hinz…
Population growth in the Chicago area ground to a near halt, as even the limited momentum the area experienced during the Great Recession has dissipated.
According to figures being released this morning by the U.S. Census Bureau, the metropolitan area, which takes in portions of Illinois, southeast Wisconsin and northwest Indiana, gained an estimated 9,802 residents in the 12 months that ended June 30. That means births and immigration into the region barely exceeded the number of people who died or moved out.
That 9,802 figure—to a new total of 9,554,598—amounted to an increase of less than .1 percent. Within the Illinois portion, the increase was only 4,735, under .07 percent.
Earlier in the decade, estimates suggested that bad economic times might be keeping some people here who otherwise would have moved to other regions of the country. Now, with an economic recovery under way, outmigration appears to have picked up.
There’s more, so go read the whole thing.
Oy.
- Rapscallion - Thursday, Mar 26, 15 @ 9:20 am:
You reap what you sow. What government does can either result in economic/political refugees leaving an area or being drawn to it if you offer something better than elsewhere. Personal freedom can be a real B*TCH to those who in power who ignore it.
- Joe Schmoe - Thursday, Mar 26, 15 @ 9:21 am:
Gee, I wonder why?
- Steve - Thursday, Mar 26, 15 @ 9:22 am:
The people to blame here for slow Chicago area growth are obvious. George W. Bush, the Tea Party, christian conservatives, and free market zealots. Everyone knows the foundation of every successful , high growth area, is investing in early childhood development.
- Crispy - Thursday, Mar 26, 15 @ 9:22 am:
Proposed cuts to mass transit would only make this worse.
- ChiTownSeven - Thursday, Mar 26, 15 @ 9:29 am:
One of the biggest reasons for the drop in Chicago’s population is the drop in the number of housing units in the City. Fewer housing units has two direct consequences: First, fewer people; second, higher housing costs, which yields fewer people. This is one of the sad legacies of Mayor Daley. His housing policies dramatically decreased the net # of housing units, driving middle and lower-income out of the City, and increasing the property taxes paid on each unit.
- Six Degrees of Separation - Thursday, Mar 26, 15 @ 9:30 am:
Things can change in a decade’s time. Kendall County, of this forlorn, hopeless state, was the fastest growing county in the US (#1 out of more than 3,000) just a few short years ago, and Kane and Will counties were regularly adding 10 and 15 thousand residents a year in the boom years that are still recent enough to recall. If the jobs and the money and the amenities like education and cultural attractions, the people will come. High property taxes in the Chicago area are somewhat of a deterrent but can be overcome with compensatory high wages.
- Steve - Thursday, Mar 26, 15 @ 9:30 am:
One of the most interesting points in the article is Illinois is probably going to lose another Congressional seat next census. Can Mike Madigan draw another Picasso in 2020 to keep Luis Gutierrez in office, because it does get more difficult as you lose House seats?
https://gutierrez.house.gov/our-district/map-district
- Six Degrees of Separation - Thursday, Mar 26, 15 @ 9:34 am:
Steve - I get it, but somehow I don’t see Texas, Arizona and Florida as shining beacons in early childhood development, and yet that’s where many of the people are going. Ditto for Crispy’s comment, although I will grumble if ticket prices go up 30% to make up for the state shortfall. Chitown Seven, the classifieds are chock full of available places to live within the city if one wants to live there; I have not heard of an “acute housing shortage” anywhere in this region.
- A guy - Thursday, Mar 26, 15 @ 9:44 am:
S, The Guitierrez seat (not him in particular) is among the few seats that will be drawn in regardless. No worries there. In fact, they may be required to draw a second Latino majority seat by then. In truth, they probably should have been required to the last time.
- Cook County Commoner - Thursday, Mar 26, 15 @ 9:49 am:
Seems Illinois is at a tipping point. The aging of the baby boomers may be the factor that can save or break Illinois. I’d like to stay, but I’m not fiscally suicidal. I’m in a “wait and see” posture, but my patience is wearing thin. I don’t intend to be collateral damage while the political structure that made fiscally irresponsible promises fights it out with those that claim those promises cannot be diminished or impaired in any way shape or form, regardless of the wreckage to innocent bystanders and the future of Illinois and the younger generations who want to call it home. There’s plenty of blame to go around in this sordid morality play, but many folks don’t have to stay in the audience.
- Wordslinger - Thursday, Mar 26, 15 @ 9:51 am:
Is this 12-month figure supposed to mark some seminal moment in economic decline? What was the growth rate supposed to be?
Price some real estate in the area and give it another think.
- A guy - Thursday, Mar 26, 15 @ 9:54 am:
Slinger is right on this. Too short a time period. Two horrendous winters could effect this. Actuary tables with a lot of retirees, any number of variables. Economic cycles come and go. This is correctable over some time. Need to look at this over a longer span.
- Apocalypse Now - Thursday, Mar 26, 15 @ 10:00 am:
Maybe its time to enact a progressive income tax favored by the progressive/liberals!
- walker - Thursday, Mar 26, 15 @ 10:02 am:
Outmigration increases as state economy improves? Not likely. Correlation as causation.
Need wider range of potential causes, and longer time frames.
- Jack Stephens - Thursday, Mar 26, 15 @ 10:05 am:
There are many, many reasons why people live somewhere. Or move. Taxes may or may not influence that decision.
Anything else is bloviatimg.
- Secret Square - Thursday, Mar 26, 15 @ 10:07 am:
“The people to blame here for slow Chicago area growth are obvious. George W. Bush, the Tea Party, christian conservatives, and free market zealots.”
I presume you were being sarcastic, since the Chicago metro area has never been a bastion of support for any of the factors you list.
- Jack Stephens - Thursday, Mar 26, 15 @ 10:08 am:
Probably a good time to end the most regressive Entitlement program ever: Mortgage Welfare!
- Wordslinger - Thursday, Mar 26, 15 @ 10:08 am:
CCC, population growth has been tilted toward the Sun Belt since the end of WWII, primarily because massive Infrastructure investment — roads, water, electric — by the national government made it inhabitable.
That’s likely to continue til the well runs dry, which, if they don’t start wrapping tneir noggins around their water usage practices might be a lot sooner than you think.
The population of NYC has been stable for about 40 years. Is that a sign of economic decline? Again, price some real estate.
I’m not worried about Chicago metro. What’s going to keep ‘em down on the farms in rural areas that have been depopulating for decades is a concern.
- Streator Curmudgeon - Thursday, Mar 26, 15 @ 10:08 am:
When I read the headline (.07 percent), I thought Rich had found a great deal on certificate of deposit rates.
- Six Degrees of Separation - Thursday, Mar 26, 15 @ 10:09 am:
Is this 12-month figure supposed to mark some seminal moment in economic decline? What was the growth rate supposed to be?
In the growth game, it’s always keeping up with the Joneses. Every demographer and economic development promoter is always looking over their shoulder at the national rate, the rate of their next door neighbors, and the states/counties/cities at the top of the list. I agree that there is nothing magical about a 12 month period as it is just a snapshot in time…but every patient needs their temperature taken on a periodic basis, and IL’s recovery is not looking so hot at the moment.
- jerry 101 - Thursday, Mar 26, 15 @ 10:11 am:
I can only speak anecdotally, but I left because I saw the writing on the wall. A mayor who took a “see no evil, hear no evil, speak no evil” approach to the fiscal problems he inherited from his predecessor instead of just doing what needed to be done (i.e. raising taxes), instead choosing to try to rely on assessing more fines on people to somehow plug overwhelming budget holes, and who appeared like he was going to coast to re-election. And that’s not even to mention the wrecking ball he took to CPS.
A governor who pledged not to extend the income tax hike, plunging Illinois back into the fiscal crisis that Quinn had worked hard, though not entirely successfully, to dig Illinois out of.
Now, it looks like Rahm is going to be re-elected, so four more years of his head in the sand approach to Chicago’s budget crisis, and his continuing destruction of the Public School system.
Plus Bruce is showing that he has no idea what to do beyond destroying the social safety net and attacking unions.
Hopefully the city, state and metro voting population finally have a wake up call and realize you can’t have the goodies without paying for them, and vote the bozos out of office and put people in power who will fix the problem.
That’s really the only hope for the City and State.
Denver and Colorado are far from perfect, but at least they have their fiscal houses in order.
I love Chicago and my home state, but I’m not about to sacrifice the well being of my family for a state run by idiots.
- jerry 101 - Thursday, Mar 26, 15 @ 10:16 am:
Wordslinger - NYC’s population has been growing for the past 35 years, not steady. NYC’s population is the biggest it’s ever been. It has 600,000 more people than it had in 1970.
I, for one, did leave in part due to taxes. Chicago and Illinois taxes are too low. I left because they didn’t tax me enough to provide the level of services that were promised. I was a big supporter of Quinn’s tax hike.
It ain’t the weather, though the weather in Chicago sucks. It’s the economy, which sucks.
- Demoralized - Thursday, Mar 26, 15 @ 10:18 am:
== regardless of the wreckage to innocent bystanders==
Like the people who would have their retirements affected?
- Wordslinger - Thursday, Mar 26, 15 @ 10:25 am:
Six, I’m just trying to figure out the expectations here.
The Chicago metro region is mature. Downtown Chicago has gone vertical for decades to accommodate population growth, while the suburbs have expanded in concentric circles the same way.
Beyond gobbling up more farmland further out from the central core, where is all this massive population growth supposed to take place? From the lake to the Fox, I don’t notice too many vast tracts of land for development.
- RNUG - Thursday, Mar 26, 15 @ 10:25 am:
== regardless of the wreckage to innocent bystanders ==
If by innocent bystanders you mean the taxpayers here in Illinois, they weren’t and aren’t innocent … over the past 45 years they voted for the clowns who kept taxes low by failing to properly fund the pension systems … and now it’s time to pay up.
- Six Degrees of Separation - Thursday, Mar 26, 15 @ 10:28 am:
17 counties in IL gained, 85 lost population in the yearly estimate. Surprised to still see reasonably strong growth in Kendall and Kane, all things considered. And downstate continues to drain - Champaign grows, but usually strong McLean shows a loss for the first time since I don’t know when.
http://factfinder.census.gov/faces/tableservices/jsf/pages/productview.xhtml?src=bkmk#
- A Jack - Thursday, Mar 26, 15 @ 10:31 am:
I would argue that people aren’t moving to the Chicago area because of quality of life issues such as harsh winters, heavy traffic, and the inflated housing prices, rather than a few percent tax. Chicago is a great place to visit, but I wouldn’t want to move back there.
- Jack Stephens - Thursday, Mar 26, 15 @ 10:31 am:
They’ve also “voted for the clowns” who expanded the
Downstate Prison Industrial Complex….with insufficient Capital to adequately manage that lime of business.
- Anonymous - Thursday, Mar 26, 15 @ 10:31 am:
RNUG, Pay up? Or move out!
- RNUG - Thursday, Mar 26, 15 @ 10:33 am:
== likely to continue til the well runs dry, … water usage practices might be a lot sooner than you think. ==
One of the often overlooked advantages of Illinois and a number of other northeastern states is the amount of fresh water we are blessed with. Most of the southwestern states couldn’t exist with importing water via massive infrastructure … and the fights over dividing that water have been heating up.
- Anyone Remember - Thursday, Mar 26, 15 @ 10:34 am:
While the “business” and “government” climate are important factors, as an immigrant to Illinois, please don’t discount the “climate” as a factor.
http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/ct-confidential-snow-population-drop-1218-biz-20141217-column.html
- Six Degrees of Separation - Thursday, Mar 26, 15 @ 10:35 am:
Word, you are correct that many areas in the metro are mature and stable. There is not as much “vertical” growth over the last 50 years as you’d think…sure, near the loop. But almost everywhere else, a teardown and redevelopment often means less dense replacement. I agree that far-flung development is not desirable vs. redevelopment and infill in the areas where it can be done. For example, there are many vacant lots in Englewood, and I think it will eventually gentrify. But with infill, there’s often a reason a parcel wasn’t developed in the first place, and usually a water, soil or contamination issue.
- Enviro - Thursday, Mar 26, 15 @ 10:38 am:
Just to put this in perspective, the U.S. birth rate reached an all-time low in 2013 of less than 1%, as babies born in the country declined for the sixth straight year since the peak in 2007.
- RNUG - Thursday, Mar 26, 15 @ 10:40 am:
== Pay up? Or move out! ==
Those that stay will have to pay up. Those that move out may find things are different, and not always better, elsewhere.
As much as we gripe about the level of taxation here, it’s not really that big of a factor in the total cost of living. Parts of Illinois are expensive and other parts are quite cheap.
Each person has to judge what is the proper balance for themselves. Every part of this country has certain advantages and disadvantages. For example, I like Texas or Louisiana or Florida to visit in the winter but those summers are brutal.
- Six Degrees of Separation - Thursday, Mar 26, 15 @ 10:41 am:
As far as “available space”, adding one person to each household in the metro would add 3 million people without building a single new building. Not that it would always happen that way, but there are many cases where the people boom was not coincident with a housing boom.
- RNUG - Thursday, Mar 26, 15 @ 10:44 am:
== babies born in the country declined ==
This country as a whole is right at or below the birthrate required to maintain a stable population.
- Anonymous - Thursday, Mar 26, 15 @ 10:44 am:
Enviro,Immigration, both legal, and illegal more then makes up for the low birth rate in this country!
- Percival - Thursday, Mar 26, 15 @ 10:52 am:
The dear departed are no dummies. They know what’s coming thanks to decades of champagne spending and beer income.
- 47th Ward - Thursday, Mar 26, 15 @ 11:01 am:
It’s growth. It’s anemic, but it’s growth. And things can change pretty quickly,so I wouldn’t read too much into this one-year snapshot.
Plus, we have too much traffic anyway. Those of you on the fence, go ahead to pack up your things and don’t let the door hit you on the way out. The rest of us that are staying will be fine.
- Cassandra - Thursday, Mar 26, 15 @ 11:18 am:
America is fortunate that we attract enough immigrants to keep us at or above replacement rate. Hopefully, that will continue–that lots of people want to come live here and become citizens.
If I were graduating from college today, though, I probably wouldn’t be looking at Chicago, but rather, the coasts. Not because of politics, corruption, taxes, the mayor, or the governor, but because the coastal cities are viewed as more exciting and all my friends would be moving there. The West coast has better weather and NYC is the center of the world. Not much we can do about that.
- jimbo2 - Thursday, Mar 26, 15 @ 11:20 am:
Chitown, 6 degrees & Word have all hit the nail on the head.
A huge factor are the artificial limits put on housing growth and incentives to actually decrease the amount of available units.
See this very good analysis:
http://danielkayhertz.com/2015/03/16/unnecessary-population-loss-on-the-north-side-is-a-problem-for-the-whole-city/
Which uses Lincoln Park as an example:
“Indeed, just a couple miles from the heart of the Loop lies a neighborhood that, despite a rich history, beautiful architecture, and quick access to the second-largest business district in America, has lost 40% of its population since the middle of the last century. An area that once held 102,000 people is now home to barely 64,000.”
That is just one of the very attractive neighborhoods in Chicago. In my m=neighborhood I can see the same change right across the street from where I live, one $500,000 2 flat has been converted into a $1,350,000 single family home with 5.5 bathrooms???. Another 2 flat a few doors down just received permits for the same conversion and has already been gutted.
Admittedly, weather is always a big factor. I can name several people who have called it quits after one of our bad winters and are now in Florida, California and Nevada.
So, make the facts fit your talking points all you want. But, as a lifelong resident of Chicago these trends seem clear to me.
- Anonymous - Thursday, Mar 26, 15 @ 11:21 am:
The climate is likely a very large factor. Paul Krugman has written about this repeatedly. For this week’s installment:
http://mobile.nytimes.com/blogs/krugman/2015/03/23/charlatans-cranks-and-cooling/
- A guy - Thursday, Mar 26, 15 @ 11:30 am:
=== RNUG - Thursday, Mar 26, 15 @ 10:44 am:
== babies born in the country declined ==
This country as a whole is right at or below the birthrate required to maintain a stable population.===
It’s all because of us old guys stuck in stable marriages, darn it! /s
- A guy - Thursday, Mar 26, 15 @ 11:31 am:
Cut off the A/C. They’ll come back.
- RNUG - Thursday, Mar 26, 15 @ 11:36 am:
- A guy - @ 11:30 am:
Good one …
- Andy S. - Thursday, Mar 26, 15 @ 11:40 am:
OK, lets all take a deep breath and put this in perspective. The population in Chicago did, after all, rise rather than fall. According to the US Census Bureau, the Chicago metro area ranked 277 out of 392 in population growth in the 12 month period ended July 1, 2014, so there were another 115 metro areas that grew even more slowly, or where population actually fell.
Where is it foreordained that Chicago must be a certain size? If the population were to fall to 9 million or (gasp!) even 8.5 million, would the State and the City not be able to pay their contractual obligations? I have not seen any convincing evidence of this at all.
- RonOglesby - Now in Texas - Thursday, Mar 26, 15 @ 11:58 am:
I left Illinois. I guess I am one of “those” but can only really speak to my reasons. Saying its 1 specific thing is almost impossible to do.
I didnt like the fiscal situation in Illinois. You can argue we dont pay enough in taxes, or our government is too expensive/wasteful, or previous pols caused it… but whatever side you are on we can all pretty much agree they are not getting the house in order quickly and there is little visibility into them really getting out of debt.
Eventually the bill comes due.
When it does come time to pay the piper I was sure that I was on the list for an increase in taxes (I’m a high earner) both on any business cash and my income.
Weather also played into it. I was sick of the cold and not being outside in my yard for months at a time. Also if doing any business that requires work outside southern states offer more available work days per year.
I wanted to go somewhere that growth was happening and be in a business friendly location. To start a business in a place that makes it as easy (and low cost) as possible. When starting a business, unless I see a huge need not served, I have to go where growth (number of customers) is increasing, not flat or decreasing, or I wind up fighting existing companies for a shrinking or stagnant pie of buyers.
Chicago / Chicagoland will always have lots going for it. There will always be money and people there. (It wont go full Detroit). BUT you can choke the goose that lays the golden eggs enough that its production of said golden eggs decreases or flat lines. Small business people like myself just dont want to deal with it.
- Grandson of Man - Thursday, Mar 26, 15 @ 12:15 pm:
Whenever I thought of leaving Illinois, the main reason was the weather. I imagine many Illinoisans leave for warmer climates.
CBS Chicago recently did a news segment called something like, “They’re Leaving Illinois.” When I saw the promo, I had a feeling the IPI was behind it, and sure enough, it was. CBS didn’t qualify IPI as a conservative policy organization during the segment. That was bad journalism. The “report” tried to state its case by mentioning a mere two examples–a couple who left downtown Chicago and moved to Indiana for lower property taxes, and a man who left Chicago for North Carolina because he couldn’t find a teaching job. Pretty weak.
“IL’s recovery is not looking so hot at the moment”
Illinois had the largest average annual unemployment rate drop recently, of all the states. Remember not too long ago when Illinois had a 9% or greater unemployment rate? It’s now 6%–and with a higher than average labor participation rate. So in that regard we are moving in the right direction.
- Nutnut - Thursday, Mar 26, 15 @ 12:38 pm:
==”births and immigration into the region barely exceeded the number of people who died or moved out”==
Just goes to show you: people are choosing to DIE rather than live in Illinois. #thanksObama
- Formerly Known As... - Thursday, Mar 26, 15 @ 1:18 pm:
Illinois is already losing population. If Chicago’s population growth from birth and immigration is slowing this much, the next statewide numbers are going to plummet.
- Liberty - Thursday, Mar 26, 15 @ 1:19 pm:
“While Chicago and Lake County are recovering faster than in the 2000s, the rest of the state is advancing more slowly. The culprit is a softer factory sector, which has backpedaled over the last two years. Export-oriented manufacturing centers such as Decatur, Peoria and the Quad Cities face pressure from lower commodity prices and weaker demand for mining and farm equiment and will be slow to revive, preventing the state from narrowing its performance gap with the region and the nation this year.” Moody’s Analytics for COFGA
- From the 'Dale to HP - Thursday, Mar 26, 15 @ 1:40 pm:
The state and to a certain extent, the city, have experienced poor leadership for decades. That’s why we’re in this mess.
On the state side… I have no clue who the last governor who actually led was. Thompson? Ogilvie? Stevenson?
They city meanwhile, picked a really bad time to stop paying it’s bills about 10/15 years ago. Then when things started to go bad, it appears the plan was to get the Olympics. When that didn’t work, a bunch bailed ship. So Rahm comes in and it turns out that he’s got the leadership skills of W: takes a stance only it’s always the wrong one.
So any time these guys want to stop playing politics and start tackling the issues at hand, that’d be great. Stop worrying about poll numbers or reelection or what the Trib Ed Board is going to think or making sure your buddy’s buddy’s cousin has a job and do what you were hired to do: fix it.
- Rapscallion - Thursday, Mar 26, 15 @ 2:02 pm:
If you want to grow and attract new citizen immigrants, you need positives to overcome the negatives. Weather ain’t getting any better, folks. Adopting a pro growth tax/business policy (for EVERYONE, not just big corporation fatcats)and bringing in good, high paying professional jobs will do that. Recent data shows that we’re losing the best and brightest graduating from fine Illinois universities in engineering, science and business to silicon valley, Washington state and Texas. Chicago downtown lifestyle is a BIG attraction for professional singles, but the violence and relative lack of opportunity are killing the state.
It’s going to take entrepreneurship leadership to do it. I hate to say this, but Rauner may be the best one to get this going.
- Cassandra - Thursday, Mar 26, 15 @ 3:38 pm:
Don’t forget Portland (Or). It rains a lot but last year it seemed like everybody I knew had a kid who was moving to Portland.
- RNUG - Thursday, Mar 26, 15 @ 4:47 pm:
== On the state side… I have no clue who the last governor who actually led was. ==
Thompson was really good at it. Edgar also knew how to do it but was from the opposite branch of the GOP and sometimes clashed with his own party. Even Ryan, at times, was fairly effective at leading on the issues that mattered to him.
- Wordslinger - Thursday, Mar 26, 15 @ 6:17 pm:
A chart in today’s WSJ from the Labor Dept. shows that, nationwide, metro areas have recovered the jobs lost in the recession and are up about 3% from a 2007 baseline.
Just the opposite for rural areas, still down 3% from the 2007 baseline.
- NoGifts - Thursday, Mar 26, 15 @ 6:28 pm:
A small percent in Chicago is a large number for some smaller cities. We’ve got an aging population and people are having smaller families. Households are smaller. I don’t think population growth for growth’s sake is a worthy goal.
- Lynn S. - Thursday, Mar 26, 15 @ 6:49 pm:
I am one of those who moved from a rural county to a city (Champaign-Urbana after college 25 years ago). Why do I stay here, even though I’m somewhat underemployed? Because there’s so much more going on in the city than back on the farm, or even the small (200 people) village 4 miles away from the farm. JOBS are important, and easier to get (not to mention, usually higher paying) in the city. Education was much better for my son–my son had several Advanced Placement classes, yet many rural high schools do not offer these, and may not even offer calculus to their seniors considering college. Internet is cheaper and has higher speeds in the city–my brother who lives on the farm must use a Verizon wifi device, with lower data limits, and it costs him $10 more than my AT&T line.
Then there’s the nightlife, the fact I can get national newspaper at many stores around Chambana, the intelligent debates I can get around town (as opposed to the Rush Limbaugh acolytes and wannabes in the rural counties–I have no issues with conservatives, but I absolutely despise intellectual laziness), and the diversity. Do I want my child thinking the world is 99% white, and that black and hispanic folks exist on TV and in Chicago? Or do I want him in class with folks from a variety of nations and backgrounds?
The rural areas have been declining for over 100 years, because automation has slowly reduced the need for people to work farmland. Lack of education (and resistance to higher educational standards) and no economic development (prisons merely pit poor whites against poor blacks, and folks like Rauner find ways to wring money out of the misery) are slowly killing small towns.
And frankly, until the rural and small town folks wake up and admit these issues, they’ll continue to die out. Change may be hard, but I would argue the slow destruction of your town or county is worse.
- Lurker - Thursday, Mar 26, 15 @ 6:49 pm:
Cassandra -
I am one that moved to Portland!
- HappyToaster - Friday, Mar 27, 15 @ 8:29 am:
The great Boomer retirement migration is underway.