Capitol Fax.com - Your Illinois News Radar » Less like this, please
SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
CapitolFax.com
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
Less like this, please

Monday, Jun 29, 2015

* The liberal Illinois Economic Policy Institute fact checks some of the Illinois Policy Institute’s recent claims. The most notable

Claim: “Illinois ranked 42nd nationally for wage growth, well behind all neighboring states.”

Verdict: False

This one is not even close. Figure 4 presents BLS information on average hourly earnings for private sector employees by state from January 2014 through May 2015, the latest month for which data is available. Over the previous 17 months, worker wages have increased from $25.05 per hour to $25.77 per hour in Illinois. This equates to a growth of 72 cents per hour, or a 2.9 percent gain. Among neighboring states, the next closest are Kentucky (+70 cents) and Iowa (+67 cents) while incomes have actually declined or remained stagnant in Illinois’ other neighbors. Hourly wages fell by 14 cents per hour in Wisconsin, and marginally improved by 4 cents per hour in Indiana and 9 cents per hour in Missouri.

Um, the Illinois Policy Institute used a different timeline, December 2013 through December 2014. But, guess what? Illinois’ wage growth was 2.8 percent for that time period - only slightly below the 2.9 percent figured cited by the liberal group.

It’s not that we shot way up, it’s that other states dropped a whole lot. North Dakota was on top of the heap during the December-December growth chart at 7.1 percent. Using January 2014 through May 2015 data, it’s at 1.3 percent.

An honest analysis would’ve pointed this out.

* More alleged fact checking

Claim: “Illinois ranked 29th nationally in job creation, behind most neighboring states.”

Verdict: Only Half True

The Illinois Policy Institute further asserts that “Illinois was tied for 29th nationally in job creation from December 2013 to December 2014.” The timeline from December 2013 to December 2014 may be suspect, given the unusually cold weathers that Illinois has recently experienced. On the other hand, an evaluation of seasonally-adjusted BLS employment data from December 2013 to December 2014 finds that the state added 66,800 workers during that time (Figure 3). This growth in jobs nearly matched similar employment gains in Michigan (+72,500 jobs), Ohio (+72,000 jobs), and Pennsylvania (+70,900 jobs) but was significantly ahead of Wisconsin (+47,100 jobs), Indiana (+45,000 jobs), Missouri (+25,800 jobs), and Iowa (+22,800 jobs).

This Illinois Policy Institute claim may be true when looking at employment gains in terms of the percentage growth rate– and yes, the economy would be better if Illinois’ growth rate were higher from December 2013 to December 2014– but why should Illinois residents care too much about percentage increases when actual jobs are being created in Illinois?

Why should people care? Because we’re twice as big as Indiana but didn’t create all that many more jobs than it did.

That’s a really weak bit of spin.

Back to the drawing board.

- Posted by Rich Miller        

17 Comments
  1. - Marty Funkhouser - Monday, Jun 29, 15 @ 12:50 pm:

    Be nice if someone would just do the analysis straight up. Oh wait, that’s why we have COGFA.


  2. - Allknowingmasterofraccoondom - Monday, Jun 29, 15 @ 12:58 pm:

    Yea but what does .72 cents get you in Illinois vs .67, .70 in those other states? It’s all voodo math, but relative to the cost of living, which is very high in Illinois it does make a significant difference.


  3. - A guy - Monday, Jun 29, 15 @ 12:59 pm:

    lies, damn lies and statistics.


  4. - Ginhouse Tommy - Monday, Jun 29, 15 @ 1:03 pm:

    A little bit of honesty goes a long way. Smoke and mirrors gets lost when someone cracks the mirror. Jeez.


  5. - ChrisB - Monday, Jun 29, 15 @ 1:04 pm:

    As always, it’s the Delta that matters.


  6. - cover - Monday, Jun 29, 15 @ 1:06 pm:

    It’s really unfortunate that “fact check” stories have to be fact-checked…


  7. - Griff - Monday, Jun 29, 15 @ 1:10 pm:

    I trust nothing out of the IPI. It is just a high priced minion for ALEC and the Koch brothers. Keep fact checking!!!


  8. - Old and In The Way - Monday, Jun 29, 15 @ 1:15 pm:

    - A guy - Monday, Jun 29, 15 @ 12:59 pm:

    lies, damn lies and statistics.

    Lies, damnable lies, and IPI statistics…..


  9. - chi - Monday, Jun 29, 15 @ 1:18 pm:

    That IL EPI is really weak sauce. “why should Illinois residents care too much about percentage increases?” Are you kidding me? Don’t give away credibility that easily. It’s unnecessary. The facts are on your side. Very disappointing.


  10. - Ahoy! - Monday, Jun 29, 15 @ 1:24 pm:

    They are both using too short of a time span for good data, best would be to at a minimum look at the last 10 years, it would probably be best to do a 5, 10 & 20 year analysis. With the short amount of time both are looking at, one can usually find a statistic that makes the case they want to make.

    I don’t really like the IPI, but they aren’t wrong about Illinois job growth and wage growth issues, we got some fixing to do.


  11. - Ginhouse Tommy - Monday, Jun 29, 15 @ 1:29 pm:

    Cover I agree.


  12. - Harry - Monday, Jun 29, 15 @ 1:36 pm:

    Makes me think IEPI’s rejoinder is so weak because maybe their case is weak.

    If not, someone should be fired.


  13. - Chicago Cynic - Monday, Jun 29, 15 @ 1:46 pm:

    What the heck is the Illinois Economic Policy Institute? Never heard of it.


  14. - sal-says - Monday, Jun 29, 15 @ 1:47 pm:

    Bob Secter in today’s Trib has an interesting article about ‘the Raunner IL Experiment’ and how it’s faired w/ Walker in WI after 4 years. Uh, as could be expected, not so well.


  15. - nixit71 - Monday, Jun 29, 15 @ 1:55 pm:

    IEPI is to trade unions as CTBA is to public sector unions.


  16. - walker - Monday, Jun 29, 15 @ 2:02 pm:

    IEPI how’s it feel to be “wronger” than IPI?

    Both cherry pick data and time frames — but IL is not doing well in these area, for real.

    Interesting that some of the poorest performers, NJ, LA, and WI, all have Governors announced for President in same week.

    Expect completely false statements about these states to begin to flow.


  17. - A guy - Monday, Jun 29, 15 @ 2:08 pm:

    === Old and In The Way - Monday, Jun 29, 15 @ 1:15 pm:

    - A guy - Monday, Jun 29, 15 @ 12:59 pm:

    lies, damn lies and statistics.

    Lies, damnable lies, and IPI statistics…..===

    thus, the twain shall kinda meet?


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


* Open thread and another LSSI reminder
* In defense of Mary Todd Lincoln on her 200th birthday
* Caption contest!
* Rauner says he'll file end of term report, clear clemency backlog
* Question of the day: Golden Horseshoe Awards
* Pritzker roundup
* Cook County Public Guardian sues DCFS: "Abject moral and human rights failure"
* Mendoza signature clearance rate is high during first round
* Your holiday season moment of Zen
* Pritzker criticized over lack of Active Transportation Alliance members on his transition committee
* Color me skeptical
* Pritzker heading to White House today
* Sen. Schimpf wants Satanic sculpture removed from rotunda as Rep. Bryant introduces condemnation resolution
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Supplement to today’s edition
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today's edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)
* *** LIVE COVERAGE ***
* Yesterday's stories

Support CapitolFax.com
Visit our advertisers...

...............

...............

...............

...............
<


Loading


Main Menu
Home
Illinois
YouTube
Pundit rankings
Obama
Subscriber Content
Durbin
Burris
Blagojevich Trial
Advertising
Updated Posts
Polls

Archives
December 2018
November 2018
October 2018
September 2018
August 2018
July 2018
June 2018
May 2018
April 2018
March 2018
February 2018
January 2018
December 2017
November 2017
October 2017
September 2017
August 2017
July 2017
June 2017
May 2017
April 2017
March 2017
February 2017
January 2017
December 2016
November 2016
October 2016
September 2016
August 2016
July 2016
June 2016
May 2016
April 2016
March 2016
February 2016
January 2016
December 2015
November 2015
October 2015
September 2015
August 2015
July 2015
June 2015
May 2015
April 2015
March 2015
February 2015
January 2015
December 2014
November 2014
October 2014
September 2014
August 2014
July 2014
June 2014
May 2014
April 2014
March 2014
February 2014
January 2014
December 2013
November 2013
October 2013
September 2013
August 2013
July 2013
June 2013
May 2013
April 2013
March 2013
February 2013
January 2013
December 2012
November 2012
October 2012
September 2012
August 2012
July 2012
June 2012
May 2012
April 2012
March 2012
February 2012
January 2012
December 2011
November 2011
October 2011
September 2011
August 2011
July 2011
June 2011
May 2011
April 2011
March 2011
February 2011
January 2011
December 2010
November 2010
October 2010
September 2010
August 2010
July 2010
June 2010
May 2010
April 2010
March 2010
February 2010
January 2010
December 2009
November 2009
October 2009
September 2009
August 2009
July 2009
June 2009
May 2009
April 2009
March 2009
February 2009
January 2009
December 2008
November 2008
October 2008
September 2008
August 2008
July 2008
June 2008
May 2008
April 2008
March 2008
February 2008
January 2008
December 2007
November 2007
October 2007
September 2007
August 2007
July 2007
June 2007
May 2007
April 2007
March 2007
February 2007
January 2007
December 2006
November 2006
October 2006
September 2006
August 2006
July 2006
June 2006
May 2006
April 2006
March 2006
February 2006
January 2006
December 2005
April 2005
March 2005
February 2005
January 2005
December 2004
November 2004
October 2004

Blog*Spot Archives
November 2005
October 2005
September 2005
August 2005
July 2005
June 2005
May 2005

Syndication

RSS Feed 2.0
Comments RSS 2.0
WordPress




Hosted by MCS SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax Advertise Here Mobile Version Contact Rich Miller