Fun with numbers
Thursday, Jul 14, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Tribune..
The group backing the proposed state constitutional amendment to reduce the influence of politics in legislative mapmaking says a majority of its petition signers were Democrats.
Dave Mellet, the campaign manager for the Independent Maps group, said it commissioned a demographic analysis of the 20,518-signature sample that the State Board of Elections used to verify that the proposal qualified for the fall ballot.
That sample is a random 5 percent of the more than 563,000 people who signed petitions to put the proposal on the ballot.
Mellet said the petition sample found 56 percent of signers qualified as likely Democrats, 23 percent as likely Republicans, and 23 percent as likely independent voters based on primary voting history.
* From the Independent Maps press release…
“Illinois is a Democratic state, so it’s not surprising that Democrats would make up the largest group of petition signers,” he said. “However, these numbers are much larger than expected and debunk the narrative pushed by opponents of redistricting reform that Democratic voters do not support this amendment.”
* Illinois Republican Party Spokesman Steven Yaffe…
“The Independent Maps movement is proof that Mike Madigan and the politicians who support him don’t care about good government reform even when it has bipartisan support from voters. Democrats were key to making sure the Independent Map Amendment received enough signatures to make the November ballot, but all Madigan wants is to protect his grip on power.”
Look, right off the bat let me just say there is zero doubt that remap reform polls very well among all demographics, including partisanship. Heck, I support remap reform myself and have for many years, although I have my own oft-stated reservations about this particular proposal.
* But there’s something missing here. What was the percentage of petition signatures gathered in Chicago? After all, the city’s high density makes it a much easier place to gather petitions.
From the Independent Maps folks…
About 34 percent of the signatures were provided by registered voters in Chicago.
5,241,179 votes were cast in Illinois for the top four presidential candidates. 1,015,634 votes were cast for president in Chicago that year - or about 19 percent. So the overall petition submission is heavily skewed to Chicago, which Obama won with 84 percent of the vote.
* Even so, let’s be very clear again, this doesn’t mean Democrats don’t back the ballot initiative. It’s obviously popular in the city if that many petitions were signed there. But are the Democratic numbers really “much larger than expected” considering where so many of them were gathered?
I’d say no.
- snap - Thursday, Jul 14, 16 @ 11:45 am:
It might also be worth mentioning the people signing the petition probably didn’t stop to read it. They signed based on whatever information the circulator gave them or the text on the petition.
The petition itself was probably a bit misleading. If someone did take the time to read the text they would have no idea how it differed from the current constitution because the changes weren’t highlighted.
- The Captain - Thursday, Jul 14, 16 @ 11:56 am:
Independent Maps have started running some web ads, including the sidebar of this website, that feature a picture of a woman and “vote yes on independent maps”. Is that a stock photo of a woman or is that supposed to be someone I should recognize such as a prominent person or celebrity? I have no idea who that is and I can’t figure out if I’m supposed to recognize her.
- Groucho - Thursday, Jul 14, 16 @ 12:09 pm:
This could be the Illinois democrats Brexit. They will wake up the next day and say what did we do?
- Anonin' - Thursday, Jul 14, 16 @ 12:24 pm:
Wow we could barely remind folks this whole crusade has been co-opted by the 1%ers who are lookin’ to grab more control. It might be handy to ask once again about their vision of IL after all the competitive races mumbo jumbo is over.
- lake county democrat - Thursday, Jul 14, 16 @ 12:43 pm:
Groucho and Anonin - so are you admitting that gerrymandering creates a substantively different legislature? Forgive us non-1%’ers who agree with President Obama that gerrymandering is anathema, regardless of which party is doing it.
- A guy - Thursday, Jul 14, 16 @ 1:10 pm:
Hard to be too bold when you sample a sample.
- Publius - Thursday, Jul 14, 16 @ 1:24 pm:
https://www.elections.il.gov/CampaignDisclosure/CommitteeDetail.aspx?id=29503
Follow the money backers
This is not an independent map organization it is a Rauner group
- Doc Anonymous - Thursday, Jul 14, 16 @ 1:54 pm:
Rich, thanks for the rather keen analysis. Democratic voters are easier to reach for signatures because they live in concentrated urban areas.
A problem with any redistricting effort will be that voters tend to gerrymander themselves, as it were, so that Democrats cluster in urban areas, where Republicans dominate the countryside. In other words, unless someone makes an effort to produce districts that deliberately connect urban and rural areas, we’re still going to have plenty of districts dominated by one party or the other–i.e., a recipe for hardliners rather than moderates.
As a little side note, I teach about ancient Athens, and the closest thing they had to voting districts seem to have been deliberately designed to mix citizens from different areas of Attica–their “districts” were intentionally non-contiguous, mixing folks from the city, coast, and mountain areas around Athens. The equivalent would be Illinois senatorial districts that each include neighborhoods in the city of Chicago, suburbs, and rural areas–from all over the state. I’m not sure this would be better over all, but it would at least eliminate the problem of hyperpartisanship via district.
- Precinct Captain - Thursday, Jul 14, 16 @ 4:26 pm:
== 56 percent of signers qualified as likely Democrats, 23 percent as likely Republicans, and 23 percent as likely independent voters==
Adds up to 102. Must be the Rauner Math!
- JimO - Thursday, Jul 14, 16 @ 5:23 pm:
Fantastic, Data shows Democrats CLEARLY support the more open election process. Democrats champion extended voting hours, extended days, easy direct registration and voting.
What does the GOP desire? Look around at legislatures of the most gerrymander states? Where are the most draconian registration, voting ids, fewest hours and places? GOP
That different is #1 reason to VOTE against the farce call ‘independent maps’.
- Arthur Andersen - Thursday, Jul 14, 16 @ 6:38 pm:
PC, it adds up that way because Lincoln and Chicago Counties were included.