Right off the bat, I should say that I think the so-called “stopgap budget” signed into law on June 30 was a good idea. Not fiscally, but because people who rely on state government desperately needed a break from the all-out legislative war between two ideologically entrenched parties.
Gov. Bruce Rauner absolutely refused to budge on negotiating a fully funded state spending plan until the Democrats agreed to some of his anti-union/pro-business agenda. Democrats wouldn’t move off their support for unions. So after more than 12 solid months of stalemate, the two camps finally agreed to a six-month budget for everything but elementary and secondary education funding, which got a full year’s worth of cash.
And even though social services providers and universities only got about half their previous levels of funding going back the last 12 months and forward through December, the stopgap budget money is probably enough to keep both systems from totally collapsing.
It was a reprieve, of sorts—just enough money to keep most of the “budget hostages” alive while the two warring parties retreated back to their corners to fight the upcoming fall campaign.
The stopgap also prevented state government from grinding to a complete halt. Prisons, for instance, couldn’t pay suppliers for everything from water to electricity to food because they haven’t had any official appropriations since the previous June. Without a court order, agencies can’t spend money if they don’t have a legislative appropriation signed by the governor.
Fiscally, however, the stopgap is a monster.
Comptroller Leslie Munger, who pays the state’s bills, told reporters last week that come late December the state will still be paying off invoices from June and it’ll have a total bill payment backlog of $10 billion.
The very same day, the respected and bipartisan Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability projected the stopgap deal has an $8 billion deficit.
You may recall that House Speaker Michael Madigan jammed his own spending plan through his chamber in late May, but several rank-and-file Senate Democrats subsequently revolted and stopped that bill dead in its tracks.
Ever since then, Rauner has been busily traveling the state taking credit for killing Madigan’s bill, always claiming it was disastrously out of balance by about $7 billion.
I Googled “Rauner Democrats $7 billion” and came up with 36,200 results. He really burned that message in, and for good reason. His political operation claims its polling shows a vote for that $7 billion deficit is darned near political death.
But . . . wait. Isn’t an almost $8 billion deficit in a budget he signed larger than a $7 billion deficit in a bill he claimed to stop?
Why, yes, it is.
But don’t tell that to the governor.
“We could be way, way worse off if the supermajority’s budget bill had passed,” Rauner said, speaking of Madigan’s proposal. “We’d be spending at an even higher level than we are today.”
Um, huh?
Never mind, because it probably won’t matter anyway when it comes to the campaign.
The Republicans are all about pinning that $7 billion deficit tag on the House Democrats. And the House Democrats are gearing up to whack Republicans for proposing a stopgap budget plan in late May that provided far less funding for K-12, higher education, social services and health care than was eventually approved by both chambers in late June.
Yep, you read that right. Unless somebody changes their mind, we’re about to witness a big, nasty campaign fight over two bills that never became law. Heck, the Republican stopgap proposal never even got a committee hearing, let alone a vote.
The Republicans will slam the Democrats for attempting to force a budget through that would’ve created such a huge deficit that the personal income tax rate would’ve risen to “more than 5.5 percent,” as a Rauner administration memo claimed last week (issued, by the way, the same day the $8 billion deficit projection was released). The tax rate is now 3.75 percent, after partially rolling back in January of last year from a high of 5 percent.
And the Democrats will slam the Republicans for trying to “slash” every politically popular spending program under the sun.
Why won’t the two sides blast each other for putting us in the hole by $8 billion? Because they actually passed that bill and Rauner signed it into law. Whacking each other for a bill that passed with huge bipartisan majorities just wouldn’t be cricket.
And so we’ll get fairy tales.
- Honeybear - Monday, Jul 18, 16 @ 9:38 am:
God blessed Gallipoli it is. Loving Savior, the arrogance it takes for people to not see the lives ruined while they battle. Don’t get me wrong, I think it’s Rauners fault and I am staunchly on one side, but man the lives that are going to be ruined. Jobs are so precious. I ache for my social service sisters and brothers out there who cannot find work after getting laid off. I also get resentful every time I listen to what St. Louis is doing next door with this or that project to help their residents. My God I feel shame. Folks are hurting so bad. The desperation I hear now in my office. People are genuinely out of food. Look I’ve been at this and ministry long enough to know when someone is lying. People aren’t lying they are desperate and hungry. Dozens Friday took down the info about the free dentistry clinic over the weekend. You might think that the stopgap has an effect. Not down here. I hate it because it took peoples attention away again. We were starting to get people to pay attention to the plight of the poor, disabled and elderly. Now that we have a stopgap…….crickets. We don’t feel it here. The agencies are still closed and will stay closed. Please don’t avert your eyes from those in need. We must hold those in power accountable. No matter who they are.
- Anon221 - Monday, Jul 18, 16 @ 9:46 am:
The Fairy Tale Survival Guide- some of it may apply here;)
For instance:
Q: Should I eat this apple?
A: No. Pomegranates are also on the no-no list, as is any unidentified meat. It could be squirrel. It could also be your missing brother. Generally just a bad scene all the way around.
Q: Is it cool to trade my cow for magic beans?
A: Only if you think it’s cool to destroy your hometown when the giants come down looking for revenge. For more reasons that this is a bad idea, please see the musical Into the Woods. You have now been warned.
http://seananmcguire.com/fairytalefaq.php
- AC - Monday, Jul 18, 16 @ 9:48 am:
If success is taking a $4 billion backlog, turning it into an $8 billion backlog, while arguing it’s somehow better than a $7 billion backlog, then I’d prefer failure.
- Bleh - Monday, Jul 18, 16 @ 9:50 am:
Another great piece, Rich.
As you point, the governor has been effective at delivering his message against Madigan and the “supermajority budget,” and people are eating it.
While the governor has been great at calling out the Springfield establishment, him supporting the stopgap budget, is the exact same thing.
- Norseman - Monday, Jul 18, 16 @ 10:01 am:
Gee, based on the headline I expected a column about who makes the best corn dogs.
It’s extremely polite to say what we’re going to hear are fairy tales. I rather think of it as the stuff farmers spread in their fields. Unfortunately, with the amount of money coming into this campaign, there is going to be an awful lot of spreading going around.
- Anonymous - Monday, Jul 18, 16 @ 10:03 am:
Rich-
I think your article would be more impactful to the average citizen if you explain how court mandates work to force spending. It’s clear to your readers here, but probably not obvious to most everybody else. It’s a bit counter-intuitive that 90% of spending continues because the courts say it does, after all.
- justme - Monday, Jul 18, 16 @ 10:05 am:
Please read this article at the Chicago Tribune: “Stopgap budget failing to erase damage of state impasse”
http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/local/politics/ct-illinois-stopgap-budget-met-20160717-story.html
All we have done at my place is know we won’t have to close the doors before December - we just had to write off 10% of our budgeted reimbursements from the state to accommodate the lack of funds for LAST YEAR. So we start FY17 with a hole and only maybe half of the promised funding until December. We are just bleeding to death slower with the band-aid they gave us….
- wordslinger - Monday, Jul 18, 16 @ 10:11 am:
It was all about getting the schools open in the fall, before the election.
But if you read Monique’s article in the Trib today, you’ll see that higher ed and social services remain under direct assault.
After the election, back to squeezing the beast.
I find it very hard to believe that CSU, Eastern and Western will all be around at the end of Rauner’s term. Who knows how many contracted social service providers will be put out of business.
That is clearly the plan.
- Anon221 - Monday, Jul 18, 16 @ 10:12 am:
“Munger said last week that her office would prioritize payments for social service groups that run autism programs and rape crisis centers but said her office is waiting on state agencies to process invoices before she could cut the checks.”
http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/local/politics/ct-illinois-stopgap-budget-met-20160717-story.html
Question- are agencies holding onto invoices, or submitting them into the queue as they come in? HRC in DeWitt County, I was told on Saturday, continued to submit monthly invoices for work done. Are those being held up in an Agency office somewhere? This could be another hostage ploy by the Rauner Admin to continue the squeezin’.
- justme - Monday, Jul 18, 16 @ 10:50 am:
To Anon221 - yes, we have been submitting reimbursements since July 2016. No, we haven’t gotten any funds. Something about we had a signed contract, but no funding to pay was approved for those contracts (this is why there was the lawsuit). The stopgap funds have to be allocated to the appropriate year it has been allocated(as it is 18 mo. of actual budget and only about 13 months of funding in the stopgap, we have to make some ‘cuts” ) then vouchered accordingly. However, as we have been submitting every month, we have actually exceeded what ultimately was given to our agency to the appropriate year with the stopgap (FY16); so now I am in the process of actually reclassing transactions to get back down to what we actually got in the stopgap budget for FY16.
I know - it all sounds confusing (and insane). The band-aid is not really big enough to cover the wound.
- CCP Hostage - Monday, Jul 18, 16 @ 10:51 am:
Just a point of information, no Department on Aging Community Care Program providers have received a penny of stopgap money. Aging is holding our invoices while waiting for direction and codes from the comptroller.
- Anon221 - Monday, Jul 18, 16 @ 11:09 am:
Thanks justme and CCP Hostage. As Rauner, and Munger to some extent, use the stopgap as a “tool” for either the Turn or a campaign, these internal “stopgaps” in the process need to be shown to the public in full sunlight. Otherwise, voters will assume that payments are going out. Keep holding feet to the fire, and let us all know what is going on and how we can help herd the cats (legislators).
- RNUG - Monday, Jul 18, 16 @ 11:31 am:
The election this fall will be won by whoever can spin this issue the best with a clear and simple message.
- CCP Hostage - Monday, Jul 18, 16 @ 12:15 pm:
Anon221, RNUG, OW–I’ve heard you all comment on human service providers’ ineffective messaging and you’re right. We struggle with it. In our defense, my particular group signed on to take care of seniors. We’re good at dementia care, maximizing independence, and treating our seniors with respect. We are unfortunately getting better at the politics, but still not good at it. I would appreciate any help with messaging suggestions.
- Oswego Willy - Monday, Jul 18, 16 @ 12:32 pm:
- CCP Hostage -
Understand…
By not actively engaged in your discussions, your challenges, your goals, and even the method to deliver a product…
The best I know I can help is try to shave off the rough edges and point out a lack of cohesive messaging.
Not snarky, but the rest is really up to you, given my own challenges to your predicament.
OW
- professor anonymous - Monday, Jul 18, 16 @ 12:53 pm:
==“The good news is that there is a lifeline for social services and universities,” ===
good news? lifeline for universities? somebody must be listening to Applegate again. If the stopgap provided a ‘lifeline’ to universities, it’s no bigger than a length of string.
- Honeybear - Monday, Jul 18, 16 @ 1:07 pm:
CCP Hostage- reach out to your AFSCME Local. I know they’d love to coordinate doing some events with you. I’m sure they could provide some volunteers to help out. We’ve got to stick together on this one. We’re in the same trench. I know this is not about messaging per se but AFSMCE is trying to build coalition as fast as we can. My local is really helping the food pantries right now.
- Anon221 - Monday, Jul 18, 16 @ 1:30 pm:
CCP Hostage- Page 11 of this booklet has some similarities to what we are going through now in Illinois. Involve, educate, inspire your community and the larger community that includes legislators in your district. Combine your efforts with those of other service providers to do so. Be a persistence rascal!!!
https://www.councilofnonprofits.org/sites/default/files/documents/Make_a_Difference_RG%5B1%5D.pdf
- CCP Hostage - Monday, Jul 18, 16 @ 1:32 pm:
Honey bear, I will. Thanks
- RNUG - Monday, Jul 18, 16 @ 1:58 pm:
- CCP Hostage -
My point was to keep it short and simple. If it’s long and complicated, people quickly turn out. Think of the voter as an AD/HD kid. Remember the KISS principle … something like the Nike slogan: Just Do It! Ideally 15 to 30 seconds max.
Whatever the unions come up with, it needs to convey the simple Rauner bad, unions good idea. Some of the messages like “when others can’t or won’t” … “we protect you”, “we take care of you”, “we’re here for you” are on target. So is something like “people are expected to pay their bills and pay their bills, why isn’t the State?”
Short, simple, catchy and repetitive can beat lots of unfocused dollars.
- RNUG - Monday, Jul 18, 16 @ 1:59 pm:
tune out, not turn out …
- Oswego Willy - Monday, Jul 18, 16 @ 2:31 pm:
- CCP Hostage -
You’ve gotten great examples how to go about your business…
I guess I still am “here”…
“What are you prepared to do?”
Will you call out the governor? His agencies?
Will you call out members of the GA that were so supportive, but now Rauner has taken their support away?
Will you recognize and purposely advocate “Vote Accordingly”?
That was my comment, “What are you prepared to do?”.
With a great deal of respect. I know where I stand in the Social Services squeezing.
Oswego Willy