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Cloonen campaign slams “illegal and unethical conduct” by Kankakee County state’s attorney, clerk and sheriff, alleges “voter intimidation”

Tuesday, Oct 4, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* The background is here. From a press release. All emphasis is in the original document…

Below is a statement from community leaders Gary Ciaccio, Mike Smith and former State Representative Lisa Dugan in response to allegations made by the Kankakee State’s Attorney’s Office on Tuesday:

“Since last Thursday, we have noticed illegal and unethical conduct by the Kankakee county state’s attorney, Kankakee county clerk and the Kankakee county sheriff’s offices. We took steps to ensure information was given to the Illinois Attorney General, the Illinois State Board of Elections and the Department of Justice regarding the actions of these local officials. We know many legally registered voters have been turned away from voting over the last few days. Since early voting for the 2016 general election began just a few short days ago, there have been numerous reports and eyewitness accounts of harassment and intimidation by local government officials of residents trying to participate in the democratic process of voting.

“We condemn attempts by anyone to engage in voter fraud, but we also will not tolerate attempts at voter intimidation aimed toward depriving local residents of their ability to vote. Everyone has a right to vote and no one should be subjected to intimidation. Our state and national constitutions exist for our protection as a people: to be protected from an overreaching government and to be protected from having our freedoms and our liberties taken from us.

“Again, we have ensured information was brought to the Attorney General and the Department of Justice to investigate these inexcusable incidents of intimidation and harassment against voters.”

  11 Comments      


*** UPDATED x1 - Parkhurst responds *** Kankakee state’s attorney opens voter fraud investigation in Rep. Cloonen race

Tuesday, Oct 4, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Press release

From the Office of Jamie Boyd, Kankakee County State’s Attorney
Date: October 4, 2016
For Immediate Release:
Re: Election Fraud

The Kankakee County State’s Attorney’s Office has opened an investigation into voter fraud. This unprecedented action was taken in response to reports of individuals from Chicago offering gifts to potential voters in exchange for a vote for Kate Cloonen, Hillary Clinton and others. Our office takes seriously the obligation to protect the rights of citizens to vote for the candidate of their choice, and to do so without undue influence from special interest groups. The investigation will also focus on the authenticity of vote by mail requests. Several applications have been filed with the election authority that appear to be fraudulently executed. These documents were also filed by people who are not voters in Kankakee County.

As a result of the information we currently have, and in an effort to end the ongoing practices aimed at illegally gaining a victory for specific candidates changes have been made to the processes. Effective immediately no “I voted” stickers will be issued to voters. This will end the practice of vote purchasers using the stickers as proof of voting. A register has been created to keep track of all individuals dropping off “vote by mail” applications so that contact information is available if questions arise regarding any applications.

Local police departments have been advised of the ongoing investigation, and are prepared to assist in the event of continued questionable activity. The Kankakee County Clerk will continue to vigilantly enforce the electioneering rules during the early voting and grace period voting in an effort to insure the integrity of the election process.

We are asking the public to contact our office with any information they are aware of regarding these or other questionable activities during this election season. We are especially hopeful that if someone is offered any gift in exchange for voting that our office will be notified immediately so that we may prosecute the offenders.

Cloonen has won her last two general election races by an average of about 100 votes each. So, this is huge.

I’ve asked the House Democrats for a response.

*** UPDATE ***  Rep. Cloonen’s Republican opponent Lindsay Parkhurst…

“These reports of voter fraud in Kankakee are incredibly disturbing. Fair and honest elections are the bedrock of our democracy. It is truly deplorable when people try to corrupt our system in this manner. I call on Kate Cloonen to denounce these actions and confirm to the public that no one affiliated with her campaign had any knowledge or involvement with these alleged crimes.”

  79 Comments      


Question of the day

Tuesday, Oct 4, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Your caption?…


  36 Comments      


Putting Ken Griffin’s wealth into perspective

Tuesday, Oct 4, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Crain’s

Citadel chief Ken Griffin remained in first place in Illinois on Forbes’ new list of the 400 wealthiest people in the U.S.

Griffin has a net worth of $7.5 billion, ranking him 57th on the list, Forbes said today.

Read the full list here.

Twelve other Illinoisans made the list, four of them from the Pritzker family:

    • Sam Zell, 117th, $4.7 billion, founder of Equity Group Investments
    • J.B. Pritzker, 190th, $3.4 billion, co-founder and managing partner of Pritzer Group, a private investment firm
    • Neil Bluhm, 204th, $3.2 billion, real estate and casino investor and a co-founder and chairman of Chicago-based Rush Street Gaming
    • Thomas Pritzker, 214th, $3.1 billion, executive chairman of Hyatt Hotels
    • Ty Warner, 274th, $2.5 billion, founder and CEO of Ty, a Westmont-based company that produces and distributes Beanie Babies and other plush toys
    • Gigi Pritzker, 290th, $2.4 billion, co-founder and CEO of OddLot Entertainment, a film production and financing company
    • Patrick Ryan, 290th, $2.4 billion, chairman and CEO of Ryan Specialty Group, a wholesale brokerage and specialty insurance firm in Chicago
    • Mark Walter, 290th, $2.4 billion, CEO of Guggenheim Partners, a global investment and advisory financial services firm headquartered in Chicago and New York
    • Joe Mansueto, 321st, $2.2 billion, chairman and CEO of Morningstar, a Chicago-based investment research and management firm
    • Joseph Grendys, 335th, $2.1 billion, CEO of Koch Foods, a poultry processing company headquartered in Park Ridge

So, Griffin’s $3 million contribution to Comptroller Leslie Munger’s campaign last week is equal to 0.04 percent of his net worth.

To put that into perspective, if your net worth (what is owned minus what is owed) is $100,000, your equivalent contribution to Munger would be $40.

  97 Comments      


Fun with numbers

Tuesday, Oct 4, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* From the Mark Kirk campaign…

Duckworth Supports $60 Billion Spending Increase For Free Community College

At the Chicago Tribune Editorial Board Debate yesterday, Rep. Duckworth said she wants free community college but could not answer how much it would cost when asked by editorial board members.

Well, we found out how much it would cost: $60 billion dollars.

“Rep. Duckworth has advocated for a new entitlement program without even knowing the cost of it, so we helped her with the research. Duckworth’s plan would cost taxpayers $60 billion,” said Kirk For Senate campaign manager Kevin Artl. “As Senator Kirk said yesterday that while he wants to spend less, tax less and borrow less, Rep. Duckworth wants to spend more, tax more and borrow more, and that is the most important contrast for voters heading into November.”

Except that $60 billion is the projected cost over 10 years.

* And no word yet on how much this would cost

Kirk, a retired Navy intelligence officer, said he wants the U.S. to create a safe haven for Syrian refugees in Jordan, with the help of the Jordanian government.

Duckworth said the idea “doesn’t even make sense” and would require “a massive increase in U.S. forces.”

“We can’t just be a nation that continually sends troops to war,” she said.

…Adding… Duckworth actually disclosed the cost in a press release at the end of yesterday’s debate…

Rapid Response #9: Tammy Duckworth Would Pay For Tuition-Free Community College By Closing Corporate Tax Loopholes
Today, Kirk Called Tuition-Free Community College For Deserving Students An “Entitlement”

CHICAGO —Tammy Duckworth has proposed how she would pay for her plan to make college more affordable: by closing a tax loophole that allows unlimited write-offs for executive bonuses, by closing the Carried Interest loophole, and by enacting the Buffet Rule to ensure millionaires pay their fair share. She would use the revenue to fully pay for the $60 billion cost of tuition-free community college for deserving students, in addition to making student loans more affordable and strengthening Pell grants.

Republican Mark Kirk on the other hand, today called tuition-free community college an “entitlement.” Tammy Duckworth considers it an investment in our future.

  47 Comments      


Rauner goes back on Facebook this Thursday

Tuesday, Oct 4, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Your thoughts?…


  56 Comments      


Huge profits made on CPS market uncertainty

Tuesday, Oct 4, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Dow Jones Business News

The Chicago Board of Education was desperate for cash. Two Wall Street players were willing to lend it — at a price.

J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. and Chicago-based Nuveen Asset Management have made realized and paper profits exceeding $110 million on purchases this year of $763 million in Chicago Public Schools bonds. The school system needed the money to replenish its dwindling coffers before the new school year and to build and repair facilities.

The school system’s bonds are a favorite for John Miller, Nuveen’s co-head of fixed income, who said the firm bought when the market feared a default, a concern he called overblown. “At the end of day, this school system is critically important to Chicago — to the whole country really,” he said.

“We took a period of market risk on behalf of our client when they needed it most and the market has recognized their improved financial position,” a J.P. Morgan spokeswoman said. […]

Prices of outstanding Chicago school bonds were hit in 2013 and 2015 after defaults by Detroit and Puerto Rico. Illinois Gov. Bruce Rauner called for a state takeover of the school system and for a potential bankruptcy filing over the past year and prices fell below 75 cents on the dollar.

Nuveen determined that the default risk was far lower than that implied by the bond prices.

Smart move by Nuveen and Morgan. They figured out what others missed: The governor was just jaw-boning and that his ideas wouldn’t actually be put into place. They wound up making out like bandits.

* Meanwhile, this is from an SEIU Healthcare union media advisory…

Taxpayers to Rauner: Yes or No — Will you stand up to banks on near $1 billion payout on toxic swap deals?

Coalition demands that governor call on bank CEOs to extend deadline on ‘toxic’ interest rate swap deals

SPRINGFIELD—College professors, students, home healthcare workers, child care providers and others will call on Gov. Rauner to save taxpayers a near $1 billion payout to big Wall Street banks, money that instead could fund vital social services and education programs now being slashed by the Rauner administration.

The coalition will make the demand during an 11 a.m. press conference on Tuesday, Oct. 4, in the Blue room at the State Capitol Building, 301 S. 2nd St. Several Wall Street banks hold documents called Letters of Credit on toxic interest rate swap loans. The letters of credit expire on Nov. 27, triggering an immediate payout of hundreds of millions of dollars in addition to additional fees and penalties unless the banks extend the letters of credit.

Wanna guess who initiated those “toxic” swaps? Rod Blagojevich, SEIU’s bestest pal. Somehow, that isn’t mentioned in the release.

* But Blagojevich’s involvement is highlighted by the governor’s office today…

Rauner Takes Steps to Reduce Risks from Blagojevich-Quinn Inherited Financial Deals

Administration Spent Last Year Working to Reduce Taxpayers Financial Risk

SPRINGFIELD – Over the past several months, the Rauner Administration has taken steps to reduce the state’s financial risk on interest rate swaps and letters of credit. The Governor’s Office of Management and Budget (GOMB) recently completed renegotiations with all the banks that hold the State’s swaps to reduce the state’s financial risk.

“Governor Rauner inherited these swaps and letters of credit, which have been hanging over the heads of Illinois taxpayers for years,” Rauner spokeswoman Catherine Kelly said. “The Rauner Administration has successfully negotiated better terms for Illinois’ taxpayers, which have reduced our financial exposure and increased our ability to direct the state’s limited resources to education and social services.”

The new terms are more favorable to the state and reduce the state’s financial risk. Under the new terms, the State is less likely to have the swaps terminated and owe a payout to the banks because the credit rating thresholds that allow the banks to terminate have been lowered. These new terms are better for the State than the terms agreed to by the Quinn administration in 2013 and the Blagojevich administration in 2003.

The Governor’s Office of Management and Budget has made negotiating with the providers of letters of credit a priority with the goal to renew or replace them prior to the expiration date of November 27, 2016. […]

In October of 2003, the Blagojevich Administration negotiated five separate, interest rates exchange agreements totaling $600 million. At the time they cost the state 4.16% in interest and fees, they now cost Illinois 6.79% in interest and fees.

The payouts the State would owe to banks now if all the swaps were terminated is approximately $150 million. If the letters of credit are not renewed or replaced, there would be additional obligations on the State.

  14 Comments      


Ty Fahner behind LOLIllinois campaign

Tuesday, Oct 4, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Some folks may have seen this on a billboard or in their social media feeds…

* Greg Hinz found out who was paying for it

But few things stay secret for long in politics, and after checking with political insiders, I was pointed to the Civic Committee, which ran a somewhat similar public reform campaign a couple of years ago using the name Illinois Is Broke.

I’m told the new campaign likely will cost at least $1 million, with ads running on the Chicago Tribune’s website and other media outlets statewide.

“We created this campaign to give Illinois citizens, no matter their politics, the opportunity to visibly demonstrate their concerns and frustrations over the failed leadership in our state,” committee President Ty Fahner says in a statement. “Our hope is that this campaign will be loud enough that they will have no choice but to hear us and act on a responsible, bipartisan budget. There is nothing laughable about doing nothing anymore.”

In a follow-up interview, Fahner said the group intentionally is not taking a position on whether the budget stalemate is more the fault of Gov. Bruce Rauner, who wants concessions on worker compensation and other labor issues before approving a tax hike, or House Speaker Mike Madigan, who says the budget should not be held “hostage.”

“We’re not giving them (that) advice,” Fahner said. “But they can’t solve problems if they don’t talk,” something that Rauner and Democratic leaders have rarely done since early summer.

Yeah, all they need to do is talk it out. Right. That’ll work. You’ve got a Randian governor hellbent on hobbling if not outright destroying the Democratic Party’s biggest sources of support (labor, trial lawyers) and a formerly centrist House Speaker who has moved significantly to the left since his primary challenge last spring (remember his CTU campaign signs?).

The governor is spending tens of millions of dollars to further tarnish Madigan in legislative campaigns, and one of Rauner’s allies is about to debut a “documentary” about the man. Madigan, for his part, is unloading on Rauner, comparing him to Donald Trump and using Rauner wherever he can to tarnish Republican candidates.

This war will end when those two guys want it to end, and not a minute before.

They should’ve just given me that million dollars. I could’ve gotten them the same results.

  26 Comments      


*** UPDATED x2 *** Poll: Clinton, Duckworth leading bigly

Tuesday, Oct 4, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* More data from that Paul Simon Public Policy Institute poll…

Democrat Hillary Clinton leads Republican Donald Trump by an overwhelming 53 percent to 28 percent margin among likely voters in the 2016 race for president in Illinois, according to a new poll by the Paul Simon Public Policy Institute at Southern Illinois University Carbondale.

Libertarian Gary Johnson garnered 5 percent and the Green Party candidate, Jill Stein, received 2 percent support. Nine percent said they remained undecided at this point.

The poll was conducted in the week after the first debate starting on Tuesday, September 27 and ending on Sunday, October 2. The sample included 1,000 registered voters, 865 of whom said they were likely voters. The likely voter sample has a margin of error of 3.3 percentage points.

The poll also showed:

*Republican Senator Mark Kirk trailing his challenger, Democratic Congresswoman Tammy Duckworth. This race showed Duckworth with a lead of 48 percent to Kirk’s 34 percent among likely voters. The Libertarian candidate, Kent McMillen, received the support of 3 percent of the respondents while 2 percent said they would vote for the Green Party candidate, Scott Summers, and 10 percent remained undecided. […]

The poll showed Clinton winning by 67 percent to Trump’s 19 percent in the City of Chicago where Democratic candidates usually do well while Trump is more competitive downstate where the candidates are essentially tied (Trump 40 percent to Clinton’s 39 percent). Suburban Cook and the collar counties are where the balance of power resides in Illinois and Clinton is winning there by about 30 percentage points (Clinton 56 percent to Trump 25 percent).

In the U.S. Senate race, the geographic breakdown is 61 percent for Duckworth in the city of Chicago to 26 percent for Kirk. In suburban Cook and the collar counties, 51 percent plan to vote for Duckworth compared to 31 percent for Kirk. Downstate Kirk is winning with 44 percent compared to Duckworth’s 36 percent.

Discuss.

*** UPDATE 1 ***  This Duckworth poll and all the other polls we’ve seen lately explain this move…


*** UPDATE 2 *** FiveThirtyEight now has Duckworth’s chances of winning at 87.3 percent.

  44 Comments      


Poll: Mendoza leads Munger 40-32

Tuesday, Oct 4, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* More from the Paul Simon Public Policy Institute’s recent poll…

In the race for state Comptroller, incumbent Leslie Munger is running to retain the seat she was appointed to by Governor Rauner upon the death of Judy Baar Topinka. She is being challenged by Democrat Susana Mendoza. Mendoza is leading by a 40 percent to 32 percent margin among likely voters. There is a large 22 percent of the voters who remain undecided. […]

Mendoza is leading in the City of Chicago at 52 percent compared to Munger’s 23 percent. Downstate the incumbent, Munger, is leading by 43 percent compared to Mendoza’s 28 percent. The balance of power is held in the Cook county suburbs and collar counties where Mendoza is leading by 42 percent to Munger’s 28 percent.

* That collar county result seems odd to me. Just keep in mind that subsets have much higher margins of error than do the full statewide results…

I’ve seen a couple of other private polls on this race that I wasn’t allowed to share, but they were both pretty close to the state’s generic partisan ballot. This one isn’t far off, either. And it’s why Munger’s TV ad campaign is absolutely crucial.

  36 Comments      


Poll: 55 percent disapprove of Rauner, but 63 percent disapprove of Madigan

Tuesday, Oct 4, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* The Paul Simon Public Policy Institute has a new poll out. Let’s start with approval ratings for the governor and the two chamber leaders…

The advertising in many of the 2016 legislative campaigns in Illinois has focused largely on three people who are not on the ballot, that is, Governor Bruce Rauner, Speaker of the House Michael Madigan, and Senate President John Cullerton. The poll asked whether the respondents approved or disapproved of the job each was doing.

The results for Rauner show that his job approval ratings are underwater with 40 percent somewhat approving or strongly approving and 55 percent somewhat disapproving or strongly disapproving of the job he is doing.

However, the governor is more popular downstate where he is somewhat closer to positive territory with 45 percent approving and 51 percent disapproving of the job he is doing. In the suburban areas, Rauner is in negative territory with 55 percent disapproving and 39 percent approving.

The Governor’s biggest problem is in the City of Chicago where his disapproval outnumbers starkly overtake his approval (62 percent to 34 percent).

Speaker Madigan’s overall job approval ratings are also in negative territory with 63 percent somewhat disapproving or strongly disapproving and 26 percent somewhat approving or strongly approving.

Madigan’s best job approval ratings are in the City of Chicago where the ratings are 32 percent approve and 56 percent disapprove. His suburban Cook and collar county job approval ratings are 28 percent approve to 59 percent disapprove. Downstate yields the harshest assessment of the Speaker’s tenure with 73 percent disapproving and 20 percent approving.

In the recent negative ads wars, Senate President John Cullerton has not been the lightning rod that the Speaker has. There are 41 percent who disapprove or strongly disapprove of Cullerton’s performance while 26 percent approve and 29 percent aren’t sure.

* Notice the intensity of “strongly disapprove” on Gov. Rauner…

* Now compare that same intensity to Speaker Madigan’s ratings…

Yikes.

* And here’s Cullerton…

* OK, now on to Rauner by region…

* Compare that to Madigan by region…

Keep in mind that Madigan has a bunch of Downstate races where he has incumbents and some much-ballyhooed challengers.

Oof.

* Methodology…

The margin of error for the entire sample of 1,000 voters is plus or minus 3.1 percentage points. The margin of error for likely voters (n=865) is plus or minus 3.3 percentage points. This means that if we conducted the survey 100 times, in 95 of those instances, the population proportion would be within plus or minus the reported margin for error for each subsample. For subsamples, the margin of error increases as the sample size goes down. The margin of error was not adjusted for design effects.

Live telephone interviews were conducted by Customer Research International of San Marcos, Texas using the random digit dialing method. The telephone sample was provided to Customer Research International by Scientific Telephone Samples. Potential interviewees were screened based on whether they were registered voters and quotas based on area code and sex (<60% female). Interviewers asked to speak to the youngest registered voter at home at the time of the call. Cell phone interviews accounted for 60 percent of the sample. A Spanish language version of the questionnaire and a Spanish-speaking interviewer were made available.

Field work was conducted from September 27-October 2. No auto-dial or “robo” polling is included. Customer Research International reports no Illinois political clients. The survey was paid for with non-tax dollars from the Institute’s endowment fund. The data were not weighted in any way. Crosstabs for the referenced questions will be on the Institute’s polling web site, simonpoll.org.

More results in a bit.

…Adding… Some folks in comments are completely missing the point. Yes, Madigan doesn’t have to run statewide. No duh. But he has become the major “issue” in House campaigns throughout the state. If the House Democrats had a presidential or other statewide type polling as badly as Madigan is, they’d be running away from that person as fast as humanly possible in order to avoid being dragged down by him/her. But the Dems can’t run away from Madigan because that’s where they get their money.

Same goes for the Republicans, by the way. Not many viable House Republican candidates/incumbents are cheering on Gov. Rauner. He’s definitely a drag. He’s just not as big of a drag yet as Madigan.

  58 Comments      


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