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*** UPDATED x2 *** Poll: Clinton, Duckworth leading bigly

Tuesday, Oct 4, 2016 - Posted by Rich Miller

* More data from that Paul Simon Public Policy Institute poll…

Democrat Hillary Clinton leads Republican Donald Trump by an overwhelming 53 percent to 28 percent margin among likely voters in the 2016 race for president in Illinois, according to a new poll by the Paul Simon Public Policy Institute at Southern Illinois University Carbondale.

Libertarian Gary Johnson garnered 5 percent and the Green Party candidate, Jill Stein, received 2 percent support. Nine percent said they remained undecided at this point.

The poll was conducted in the week after the first debate starting on Tuesday, September 27 and ending on Sunday, October 2. The sample included 1,000 registered voters, 865 of whom said they were likely voters. The likely voter sample has a margin of error of 3.3 percentage points.

The poll also showed:

*Republican Senator Mark Kirk trailing his challenger, Democratic Congresswoman Tammy Duckworth. This race showed Duckworth with a lead of 48 percent to Kirk’s 34 percent among likely voters. The Libertarian candidate, Kent McMillen, received the support of 3 percent of the respondents while 2 percent said they would vote for the Green Party candidate, Scott Summers, and 10 percent remained undecided. […]

The poll showed Clinton winning by 67 percent to Trump’s 19 percent in the City of Chicago where Democratic candidates usually do well while Trump is more competitive downstate where the candidates are essentially tied (Trump 40 percent to Clinton’s 39 percent). Suburban Cook and the collar counties are where the balance of power resides in Illinois and Clinton is winning there by about 30 percentage points (Clinton 56 percent to Trump 25 percent).

In the U.S. Senate race, the geographic breakdown is 61 percent for Duckworth in the city of Chicago to 26 percent for Kirk. In suburban Cook and the collar counties, 51 percent plan to vote for Duckworth compared to 31 percent for Kirk. Downstate Kirk is winning with 44 percent compared to Duckworth’s 36 percent.

Discuss.

*** UPDATE 1 ***  This Duckworth poll and all the other polls we’ve seen lately explain this move…


*** UPDATE 2 *** FiveThirtyEight now has Duckworth’s chances of winning at 87.3 percent.

       

44 Comments
  1. - Honeybear - Tuesday, Oct 4, 16 @ 9:35 am:

    So I’d love it if one of you statistical political people could give me your thoughts as to whether this trend will effect down ballot races. If the leads are that big, I might think that it would effect local races at least a little. What maybe 5%? Or maybe not at all. This is a sincere question from the shallow end of the pool.


  2. - Nick Name - Tuesday, Oct 4, 16 @ 9:36 am:

    “Nine percent said they remained undecided at this point.”

    How in the world can anyone be undecided “at this point”? Even the Green Party supporters make more sense.


  3. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Oct 4, 16 @ 9:37 am:

    The 53% for Clinton and the challenger to a senate seat Duckworth keeping 48%, that should give the Duckworth Crew solace.

    The fact Kirk is outperforming Trunp gives a glimmer of hope for Kirk as he trails in the teen-double-digits.


  4. - Team Sleep - Tuesday, Oct 4, 16 @ 9:44 am:

    As much as I dislike Mitch McConnell, my guess is that if his polling is similar then that explains why Senator Kirk is not getting PAC cash.


  5. - Anonymous - Tuesday, Oct 4, 16 @ 9:45 am:

    Nick Name - I do wonder if people who say “undecided” only say that because they are embarrassed to say who they actually intend to vote for in some cases.


  6. - Jocko - Tuesday, Oct 4, 16 @ 9:48 am:

    ==Nine percent said they remained undecided==

    I take that to mean 9% are voting for Trump, but are too embarrassed to say as much to a pollster.


  7. - Rich Miller - Tuesday, Oct 4, 16 @ 9:48 am:

    Jocko, try not to unskew.


  8. - Chairman McBroom - Tuesday, Oct 4, 16 @ 9:55 am:

    Is it bigly or big league?


  9. - The Captain - Tuesday, Oct 4, 16 @ 9:57 am:

    Another poll where Kirk can’t break 40, in this one he’s well below 40. I’m guessing that internal polling is showing something similar, yesterday it was announced that the DSCC was cancelling some of their mid-October Illinois ad spending.


  10. - Shore - Tuesday, Oct 4, 16 @ 9:57 am:

    As Zorn pointed out, Mark didn’t put up much of a fight in the Tribune debate almost like he thought it was a Brookings forum or hearing and it was really dissapointing. Tammy is uninformed, wants to paint him as Trump and is extremely anxious and flustered-not unlike dan seals. Not doing the forums is a terrible idea. The wttw one especially is usually wonkier and more issues focused-his strengths.

    He seems to think he’s still in the 10th fighting lee goodman or seals where he’s in a community where everyone knows him and Porter and what that means and he can ride out the storm, but I really don’t think people know him around the state as well as he thinks.


  11. - Ron Burgundy - Tuesday, Oct 4, 16 @ 10:05 am:

    -Is it bigly or big league?-

    Bigly. Trumpism from the last debate.


  12. - wordslinger - Tuesday, Oct 4, 16 @ 10:06 am:

    –53 to 28–

    Perhaps Big Brain Bruce and Katrina could enlighten us as to how 81% of Illinois voters have staggered out of the Troncistan “mainstream,” which seems to be more of a drainage ditch, given Stony’s 5%.


  13. - Team Sleep - Tuesday, Oct 4, 16 @ 10:10 am:

    Full disclosure: I know quite a few of Kirk’s younger staffers. They are solid dudes and I feel for them. But the senior staff and Kirk himself do that campaign no favors. With as much as Kirk has done for Governor Rauner and the state party - and with Kirk’s top people leaving to work for Rauner - it is really odd (or perhaps telling) that Rauner did not reassign top staffers to go back to or report to Kirk’s campaign.


  14. - Anon221 - Tuesday, Oct 4, 16 @ 10:11 am:

    Per the Update- on NPR this morning, Clinton is opening more field offices in Arizona. need to focus on states in play that usually weren’t.

    http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-poll-idUSKCN1231UR


  15. - Downstate GOP Faithless - Tuesday, Oct 4, 16 @ 10:29 am:

    I may have misread something but Kirk is at 26% in the city and trailing so badly still? 26% for a Republican in the city is pretty high - just ask the former State Treasurer, he will tell you. Either the Kirk campaign is just that much of a trainwreck or something is off in the numbers (and I don’t think the numbers are off).


  16. - Anonymous - Tuesday, Oct 4, 16 @ 10:35 am:

    TS, I think it’s telling that the self-proclaimed leader of the Illinois GOP can’t find his very fat wallet when it comes to a GOP Senator on the ropes.

    Seriously, he can spend on a meaningless, sappy, ego-stroke “term limits” spot featuring himself, but he and his crew can’t go large for Kirk?

    I guess there’s nothing In it for Rauner, personally. Some “leader.”


  17. - wordslinger - Tuesday, Oct 4, 16 @ 10:36 am:

    Pardon, 10:35 was me.


  18. - ZC - Tuesday, Oct 4, 16 @ 10:37 am:

    Illinois is still just a really nasty state for Republicans in presidential years, and Trump was not the candidate to help reverse that pattern and to improve the GOP’s “brand.” In Kentucky, the Democrats run from the national party; but here in IL it’s the reverse.


  19. - Rich Miller - Tuesday, Oct 4, 16 @ 10:41 am:

    ===or something is off in the numbers (and I don’t think the numbers are off)===

    The numbers track with the comptroller’s race. Could be a lot of things here. African-American voters tend to “break late,” however.


  20. - Grandson of Man - Tuesday, Oct 4, 16 @ 11:00 am:

    The poll was taken after the debate, so it’s catchin’ the Clinton upswing. Trump has had a very bad week in the news cycles. That may change, especially if there are bombshell revelations.


  21. - Rich Miller - Tuesday, Oct 4, 16 @ 11:03 am:

    ===Trump has had a very bad week in the news cycles===

    lol

    You say that in a passive voice as if Trump’s behavior isn’t the real issue here.


  22. - Team Sleep - Tuesday, Oct 4, 16 @ 11:05 am:

    Word - you took the words right out of my mouth. I was trying to be nice. But you are correct: it would have taken almost nothing for him to lend staff and start a super PAC for Kirk. I know a lot happens behind the scenes but what happens at the outset of a campaign and the post-primary gearing up sets the tone. And nothing happened.


  23. - Anonymous - Tuesday, Oct 4, 16 @ 11:11 am:

    Chairman McBroom…..I knew Chairman McBroom (well, his son). You sir, are no Chairman McBroom!


  24. - Clark - Tuesday, Oct 4, 16 @ 11:23 am:

    “The poll was taken after the debate, so it’s catchin’ the Clinton upswing. Trump has had a very bad week in the news cycles. That may change, especially if there are bombshell revelations.”

    Even if Trump had a good week/good debate/was a better candidate, and if Kirk supported him, I don’t think that would change much in terms of changing the poll numbers coupled with the dem turnout.


  25. - ZC - Tuesday, Oct 4, 16 @ 11:24 am:

    I agree about debate bounces but this one may get fresh legs after Sunday night, at least if Hurricane Matthew doesn’t get too close to the coast.

    Not sure town hall forum is the format for Trump to get his stride back.


  26. - wordslinger - Tuesday, Oct 4, 16 @ 11:25 am:

    TS, and the takeaway for potential Kirk donors is: if the likes of Rauner and Griff wont make even a token effort for Kirk, why should I?


  27. - Nick Name - Tuesday, Oct 4, 16 @ 11:26 am:

    “The poll was taken after the debate, so it’s catchin’ the Clinton upswing.”

    After the debates begin, the only polling that matters is the polling done after the debates begin.


  28. - wordslinger - Tuesday, Oct 4, 16 @ 11:37 am:

    The poll also “caught” the 70-year-old GOP nominee in the midst of a five-day temper tantrum over the weight of a former Miss Universe.

    Before this is over, Trump will be rolling ball bearings in his hands and babbling about missing strawberries.


  29. - archpundit - Tuesday, Oct 4, 16 @ 12:14 pm:

    So Duckworth released an internal poll yesterday in which she is lower than this…and Clinton was doing worse. Nothing horrible about any of that, but it’s an amusing year for sure.

    I will note a couple who insisted Trump isn’t doing that bad yesterday, it looks like he is doing that bad. He’s in Keyes territory here and that shouldn’t be surprising. There are moderate Republicans in Illinois (See, Willy, Oswego) and they are sitting out, voting for Johnson or something.


  30. - archpundit - Tuesday, Oct 4, 16 @ 12:17 pm:

    ===hat may change, especially if there are bombshell revelations.

    Umm..those seem to be coming on one side only and that’s the side that hurts Trump so unless you thought Assange was dropping something I think you might be out of luck.

    That said, if the trend continues, there is still time to depress Republican turnout and that is the end of Kirk. There’s still time to stem some of the bleeding at the top of the ticket, but he’s 1 1/2 weeks on nonsense and the nonsense keeps flowing.


  31. - Scholar athlete - Tuesday, Oct 4, 16 @ 12:21 pm:

    Touch ‘em all, wordslinger. You hit that one out of the park!


  32. - Grandson of Man - Tuesday, Oct 4, 16 @ 12:22 pm:

    “You say that in a passive voice as if Trump’s behavior isn’t the real issue here.”

    For me Trump’s behavior and statements have been the issue since the beginning. But the polls have swung back and forth since around or right before the conventions. I wish it wasn’t like that, and wish the polls would settle where they are now. Who knows what tomorrow brings?


  33. - Mason born - Tuesday, Oct 4, 16 @ 12:27 pm:

    At this point, hetween the tax & charity issues, the question isn’t whether Trump will sleep in the White House so much as whether he’ll have top or bottom bunk w Maadoff.


  34. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Oct 4, 16 @ 1:00 pm:

    ===There are moderate Republicans in Illinois (See, Willy, Oswego) and they are sitting out, voting for Johnson or something.===

    - archpundit -

    Yep. I’m a “no Trump never Trump”. I actually wonder how I’ll break, it might be “game time” decision, but a decision will be made.


  35. - ArchPundit - Tuesday, Oct 4, 16 @ 1:24 pm:

    ===Yep. I’m a “no Trump never Trump”. I actually wonder how I’ll break, it might be “game time” decision, but a decision will be made.

    We’ve all been there in some race…;)

    And you would probably drag yourself across broken glass to vote, but for less committed voters, a portion will sit out the election as a whole.


  36. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Oct 4, 16 @ 1:30 pm:

    ===And you would probably drag yourself across broken glass to vote,===

    I would. Getting to the polls is important… or absentee.

    ===…but for less committed voters, a portion will sit out the election as a whole===

    That’s the shame of this all. Can’t let one race deter where a vote can make a critical difference, just by abandoning the entire process. The undervote and turnout, those two will be an interesting comparison on their own and in concert.


  37. - ArchPundit - Tuesday, Oct 4, 16 @ 1:32 pm:

    We agree on all of that–but I just wanted to brag I voted first in my county on September 23rd.


  38. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Oct 4, 16 @ 1:34 pm:

    ===but I just wanted to brag I voted first in my county on September 23rd.===

    Well the last thing I’d want to do is steal your glory or bury the lede on your accomplishment.

    Hopefully I’m am the first outside those working the early voting to congratulate you.


  39. - Daniel Plainview - Tuesday, Oct 4, 16 @ 1:36 pm:

    - but he and his crew can’t go large for Kirk? -

    Hey now, he put in the effort to take Gidwitz to the woodshed and make him grovel over Kirk, doesn’t that count for something?

    Or did Rauner just want to show everyone what a tough guy he is? Hmmm.


  40. - Last Bull Moose - Tuesday, Oct 4, 16 @ 2:37 pm:

    I may have to vote early, before I become too demoralised to move.


  41. - @MisterJayEm - Tuesday, Oct 4, 16 @ 4:35 pm:

    Q: “whether this trend will effect down ballot races. If the leads are that big, I might think that it would effect local races at least a little. What maybe 5%? Or maybe not at all.”

    A: “I may have to vote early, before I become too demoralized to move.”

    tl;dr- when races are a foregone conclusion, the voters who think their party is doomed are more likely to skip the election entirely — and that puts a brick on that party’s down-ballot candidates.

    – MrJM


  42. - Anonymous - Tuesday, Oct 4, 16 @ 5:36 pm:

    Melissa Bean was given an 89% chance of beating Joe Walsh by the same source.


  43. - @MisterJayEm - Tuesday, Oct 4, 16 @ 7:59 pm:

    “Melissa Bean was given an 89% chance of beating Joe Walsh by the same source.”

    And some times the roulette wheel comes up “00″ — that doesn’t mean the odds of it weren’t 37 to 1 against.

    – MrJM


  44. - Anon - Wednesday, Oct 5, 16 @ 11:26 am:

    I get the frustration with Rauner but…the more Rauner gets involved, the more Kirk has to answer for him and the more his “independent” brand is damaged.


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


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