Illinois - the only state in the Midwest and Heartland to go D. And last place in crime, debt, and growth. Maybe it’s time to rethink things. Seems like the people are already doing so.
Lots of rust belt state map comparisons look like that.
Before Dems totally dismiss Trump’s victory as a triumph for hate, they have to come to grips with the fact that more than a few Obama supporters in the industrial midwest voted for Trump.
Look at Brown County (Green Bay) in Wisconsin. Almost no black voters there, but Obama won it twice. Hillary got crushed there last night.
At least my county went blue… but maybe time for a 102-county Illinois Democratic Party strategy instead of a 60-House-seat Illinois Democratic Party strategy.
Diversity in thought, not in race or party, is seen in 2008, and homogenized into pockets of where diversity of thought is more prevalent… and where diversity of thought may be less accepted?
Keep in mind, Obama is leaving office with Reagan-like high approval ratings, and yet even his Illinois is seen in maps as less thoughtful… in true colors of that lacking.
@ Mama
i believe —
solid color over 10% spread for that party
light party color is less than 10% spread but in the party colors favor
Grey not reported.
So most comments say something interesting about the map and politics, but Deft Wing chooses to personally belittle supporters of the other side. Says much more about you than them.
Here’s my comment about the map. Expected Trump headwinds were actually coattails. Surprised me and a lot of others.
As the hack shows, the DNC put their thumb on the scale for her.
The superdelegates gave us her. (and is something the postmortem needs to take care of. Either superdelegates should have to be elected, just like regular delegates, or they shouldn’t be allowed to exercise their preferences until after their state’s primary. Remember the voter suppression Clinton and her surrogates did right before the California primary, to steal votes from Bernie?)
Clinton was the candidate of baby boom Dems, and they’re slowly dying off. Mortality tends to get us all, at some point, and if the primary had been confined to Dems under 50, Clinton would have lost. Gen X and the Millenials know she’s poison, and now we have the votes to prove it.
I’ll be back later to talk about Trump.
- Sangamo better blues - Wednesday, Nov 9, 16 @ 9:34 am:
Last night’s state results may be less Rauner’s and more Trump’s doing.
This is where the Dems need to start their autopsy for Illinois to prepare for 2018. I know, at least in DeWitt County, there is very little difference between the R’s and the D’s. Most are more like a Tea Party Republican in conservatism and beliefs. Is that happening in other counties? If it is, the Dems need to stop the hijacking.
I said it in the primary; Hillary is the only person who could lose to Trump. And she did. I am not totally shocked. Unfortunately, getting elected President of the United States is a much easier task than being President of the United States. I hope for everyone’s sake, the new president will take his oath of office more seriously than he has taken everything else. The world is in his hands.
We in Illinois all saw this Presidential election once before.
Consider the 2010 Quinn Brady race
1. The polls got it all wrong
2. There were two fairly well known 3rd party candidates allowing voters an opt out in bot cases. Scott Lee Cohen and Rich Whitney then and Gary Johnson and Jill Stein this time.
3. African American vote in 2012 93-7 for Obama. In 2016 88-8 for Clinton with 4% going to 3rd parties. That 4% of the African American vote is vote right out of the Dems hide.
4. Latinos 71-27 for Obama with 2% for third party candidates in 2012. 65-29 for Clinton in 2016 with 6% for third party candidates. That extra 4% for 3rd parties probably came 2/3 out of the Dems hide.
5. 18029 year olds. In 2012 60-37 for Obama with 3% for third parties. In 2016 54-37 for Clinton with 9% for third parties. That extra 6% for third parties was probably again 2/3 from the Dems.
Just like in 2010 how the third party options cut into the vote enough to allow Pat Quinn’s Cook County majority squeak him into office, the third party votes in the 2016 Presidential election cut into core Democratic constituencies allowing Trump to squeak into office off of ‘traditional’ GOP support.
Those red areas here and in the rest of the rural Midwest that flipped from blue will expect Trump and Rauner to fill them up with those manufacturing jobs they’ve been promising.
In other words, reverse, in a hurry, decades-long advancements in technology and global economic development.
Call them The Great Cons, because the grift worked for both of them.
2014 mid terms and this election were clear messages this nation did not like what Obama was throwing at them. Obama has to be stunned today, absolutely stunned.
I sat there last night and openly wondered if the polls were skewed because those being polled were reluctant to admit their preference. Just a thought.
- Grandson of Man - Wednesday, Nov 9, 16 @ 11:47 am:
“Call them The Great Cons, because the grift worked for both of them.”
I agree. What scares me is that so many people who want economic growth and hate the establishment elected two super-rich establishment people who are all about enriching themselves at others’ expense, Rauner and Trump.
I could understand disliking the establishment and wanting change, but choosing Rauner and Trump? That’s the sheep picking the wolves to guard them.
it’s surprising she came this close given to Comey’s interference. but let’s talk about the unending torrent of misogyny that was directed at her and women generally. if that had been racism, it would have been decried but the media does not take sexism as seriously. the use of the C word was not in the Vagina Monologues reclaimed sense. welcome to the world where the president is a person who did all those things to women, makes comments, is married to someone who posed for quite racy photos. we are taken directly backwards. and people are ok with that. that’s misogyny in action.
If you did a population map for Illinois where blue was increase in population and red was decrease in population, they would be very similar. I’m not sure what that tells us, just find it interesting.
It seems like the vote totals out of the city are really high (even for an election year)? Is that how Mendoza won & Hillary big, enough to cancel basically the rest of the state?
It looks to me that on a statewide level, 2008 and 2012 were outliers, that the normal D/R breakdown is roughly 54-55% D. Now, it looks like on the local level the map may be moving to favor the R’s.
The collar counties went blue in 08 and stayed there in 12 and 16. The R’s are going to have to win back the collar counties if they have any hope of getting majorities in the legislature. Might take a new map to do it.
Despite all the pretty county colors, we’re aware that Clinton carried Illinois by +16? That’s not the +25 that Obama got in 2008, but it’s a whupping in any league.
That will continue as long as those suburban counties remain blue.
- 1988 and counting - Wednesday, Nov 9, 16 @ 3:23 pm:
The elephant in the room is the lack of leadership in the Illinois Republican Party. Look at all of the Republican establishment players who took the bait and abandoned Trump after he was nominated. Did their write in votes help them win yesterday.
I highly doubt that supporting Trump would have resulted in electoral victories for Kirk and Dold and others, but I do wonder if a coordinated campaign effort might have produced better totals across the board. Most Republican candidates took an every man for himself approach once again.
What does the one poster call himself? “Circular Firing Squad.” That is the IL GOP.
- Grandson of Man - Wednesday, Nov 9, 16 @ 4:13 pm:
In the maps I see two popular Democrats (Bill Clinton and Obama) and two unpopular Democrats, Gore, Kerry and Hillary. Hillary completely lacked the buzz, the movement. Trump had it. Sanders had it. Obama and Bill Clinton had it.
- 1988 and counting - Wednesday, Nov 9, 16 @ 4:30 pm:
@Grandson:
Hillary was an awful candidate. Her nomination was rigged if the leaked emails can be believed and a close reading of the messages suggests that they were authentic. She had cozy relations with many media figures and pollsters. Even when playing a pat hand from a stacked deck, Hillary managed to lose to an unpopular and controversial “Republican” candidate.
I do not read to much into Hillary’s Illinois vote totals because Trump never really campaigned here. He held fundraisers and collected checks and left.
The Democratic Party’s trend of losing votes in rural, rust-belt regions like downstate IL has got to be addressed by party leaders, but is it possible to have those challenges addressed by someone other than DC-based consultants who don’t
understand flyover America.
DD has it right. But I want to add Obama was a very special candidate for a lot of people whose popularity unfortunately disguised long-term rot for the Democrats across the Midwest at least from its Appalachian eastern end to the Missouri River through the Dakotas.
- old pol - Wednesday, Nov 9, 16 @ 9:14 am:
Illinois - the only state in the Midwest and Heartland to go D. And last place in crime, debt, and growth. Maybe it’s time to rethink things. Seems like the people are already doing so.
- Rod - Wednesday, Nov 9, 16 @ 9:14 am:
In the 13th Ward in Chicago where Michael Madigan is the Ward Committeeman Trump got 25.71% of the vote. Enough said.
- Mama - Wednesday, Nov 9, 16 @ 9:15 am:
Will someone please explain the 4 different colors. Thanks
- thechampaignlife - Wednesday, Nov 9, 16 @ 9:17 am:
Interesting evolution in mapping. Much less smoothing of county lines.
- Roman - Wednesday, Nov 9, 16 @ 9:19 am:
Lots of rust belt state map comparisons look like that.
Before Dems totally dismiss Trump’s victory as a triumph for hate, they have to come to grips with the fact that more than a few Obama supporters in the industrial midwest voted for Trump.
Look at Brown County (Green Bay) in Wisconsin. Almost no black voters there, but Obama won it twice. Hillary got crushed there last night.
- Deft Wing - Wednesday, Nov 9, 16 @ 9:19 am:
The fascination with Barack Obama and the Clintons is over.
- LizPhairTax - Wednesday, Nov 9, 16 @ 9:20 am:
Darker is greater margin.
- Rocky Rossi - Wednesday, Nov 9, 16 @ 9:20 am:
One word. JOBS
- Name/Nickname/Anon - Wednesday, Nov 9, 16 @ 9:20 am:
Umm I don’t think that map is right.
- hisgirlfriday - Wednesday, Nov 9, 16 @ 9:21 am:
At least my county went blue… but maybe time for a 102-county Illinois Democratic Party strategy instead of a 60-House-seat Illinois Democratic Party strategy.
- Roman - Wednesday, Nov 9, 16 @ 9:23 am:
@Rod
McCain got 24 percent in the 13th Ward and Romney go 27 percent.
- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Nov 9, 16 @ 9:23 am:
Diversity in thought, not in race or party, is seen in 2008, and homogenized into pockets of where diversity of thought is more prevalent… and where diversity of thought may be less accepted?
Keep in mind, Obama is leaving office with Reagan-like high approval ratings, and yet even his Illinois is seen in maps as less thoughtful… in true colors of that lacking.
- Allen D - Wednesday, Nov 9, 16 @ 9:24 am:
@ Mama
i believe —
solid color over 10% spread for that party
light party color is less than 10% spread but in the party colors favor
Grey not reported.
- Allen D - Wednesday, Nov 9, 16 @ 9:25 am:
That is a pretty Painting…. needs just a little more red IMO
- Simple Simon - Wednesday, Nov 9, 16 @ 9:27 am:
So most comments say something interesting about the map and politics, but Deft Wing chooses to personally belittle supporters of the other side. Says much more about you than them.
Here’s my comment about the map. Expected Trump headwinds were actually coattails. Surprised me and a lot of others.
- Ron Burgundy - Wednesday, Nov 9, 16 @ 9:32 am:
2008: Personal charisma and people hurting.
2016: No personal charisma and people still hurting.
- LizPhairTax - Wednesday, Nov 9, 16 @ 9:33 am:
This is like trying to keep a car in its lane by swinging the wheel way to the left and then way to the right.
There’s more to it, but the winner every eight years is whatever it wasn’t for the past eight years.
- Lynn S. - Wednesday, Nov 9, 16 @ 9:34 am:
@ Deft Wing:
The fascination with THE CLINTONS is over.
As the hack shows, the DNC put their thumb on the scale for her.
The superdelegates gave us her. (and is something the postmortem needs to take care of. Either superdelegates should have to be elected, just like regular delegates, or they shouldn’t be allowed to exercise their preferences until after their state’s primary. Remember the voter suppression Clinton and her surrogates did right before the California primary, to steal votes from Bernie?)
Clinton was the candidate of baby boom Dems, and they’re slowly dying off. Mortality tends to get us all, at some point, and if the primary had been confined to Dems under 50, Clinton would have lost. Gen X and the Millenials know she’s poison, and now we have the votes to prove it.
I’ll be back later to talk about Trump.
- Sangamo better blues - Wednesday, Nov 9, 16 @ 9:34 am:
Last night’s state results may be less Rauner’s and more Trump’s doing.
- Anon221 - Wednesday, Nov 9, 16 @ 9:35 am:
Politico’s breakdown by county-
http://www.politico.com/2016-election/results/map/president/illinois/
This is where the Dems need to start their autopsy for Illinois to prepare for 2018. I know, at least in DeWitt County, there is very little difference between the R’s and the D’s. Most are more like a Tea Party Republican in conservatism and beliefs. Is that happening in other counties? If it is, the Dems need to stop the hijacking.
- Ducky LaMoore - Wednesday, Nov 9, 16 @ 9:38 am:
I said it in the primary; Hillary is the only person who could lose to Trump. And she did. I am not totally shocked. Unfortunately, getting elected President of the United States is a much easier task than being President of the United States. I hope for everyone’s sake, the new president will take his oath of office more seriously than he has taken everything else. The world is in his hands.
- old pol - Wednesday, Nov 9, 16 @ 9:41 am:
The map does not explain Dold’s loss. Maybe he should have ridden the coat tails rather than backstabbing his Party’s Nominee?
- train111 - Wednesday, Nov 9, 16 @ 9:42 am:
We in Illinois all saw this Presidential election once before.
Consider the 2010 Quinn Brady race
1. The polls got it all wrong
2. There were two fairly well known 3rd party candidates allowing voters an opt out in bot cases. Scott Lee Cohen and Rich Whitney then and Gary Johnson and Jill Stein this time.
3. African American vote in 2012 93-7 for Obama. In 2016 88-8 for Clinton with 4% going to 3rd parties. That 4% of the African American vote is vote right out of the Dems hide.
4. Latinos 71-27 for Obama with 2% for third party candidates in 2012. 65-29 for Clinton in 2016 with 6% for third party candidates. That extra 4% for 3rd parties probably came 2/3 out of the Dems hide.
5. 18029 year olds. In 2012 60-37 for Obama with 3% for third parties. In 2016 54-37 for Clinton with 9% for third parties. That extra 6% for third parties was probably again 2/3 from the Dems.
Just like in 2010 how the third party options cut into the vote enough to allow Pat Quinn’s Cook County majority squeak him into office, the third party votes in the 2016 Presidential election cut into core Democratic constituencies allowing Trump to squeak into office off of ‘traditional’ GOP support.
- Anonymous - Wednesday, Nov 9, 16 @ 9:46 am:
Those red areas here and in the rest of the rural Midwest that flipped from blue will expect Trump and Rauner to fill them up with those manufacturing jobs they’ve been promising.
In other words, reverse, in a hurry, decades-long advancements in technology and global economic development.
Call them The Great Cons, because the grift worked for both of them.
- Wordslinger - Wednesday, Nov 9, 16 @ 9:48 am:
Pardon, 9:46 was me.
- Piece of Work - Wednesday, Nov 9, 16 @ 9:56 am:
2014 mid terms and this election were clear messages this nation did not like what Obama was throwing at them. Obama has to be stunned today, absolutely stunned.
- Team Sleep - Wednesday, Nov 9, 16 @ 10:05 am:
I sat there last night and openly wondered if the polls were skewed because those being polled were reluctant to admit their preference. Just a thought.
- Anonymous - Wednesday, Nov 9, 16 @ 10:10 am:
Win or lose, Illinoisans are lopsidedly Democratic.
- City Zen - Wednesday, Nov 9, 16 @ 10:19 am:
Has Rachel Maddow recovered from her nervous breakdown yet?
- Hamlet's Ghost - Wednesday, Nov 9, 16 @ 10:49 am:
Clinton ain’t Obama
- Liberty - Wednesday, Nov 9, 16 @ 11:45 am:
Rauner is no Trump…
- Grandson of Man - Wednesday, Nov 9, 16 @ 11:47 am:
“Call them The Great Cons, because the grift worked for both of them.”
I agree. What scares me is that so many people who want economic growth and hate the establishment elected two super-rich establishment people who are all about enriching themselves at others’ expense, Rauner and Trump.
I could understand disliking the establishment and wanting change, but choosing Rauner and Trump? That’s the sheep picking the wolves to guard them.
- Amalia - Wednesday, Nov 9, 16 @ 11:59 am:
two words, Comey, sexism.
it’s surprising she came this close given to Comey’s interference. but let’s talk about the unending torrent of misogyny that was directed at her and women generally. if that had been racism, it would have been decried but the media does not take sexism as seriously. the use of the C word was not in the Vagina Monologues reclaimed sense. welcome to the world where the president is a person who did all those things to women, makes comments, is married to someone who posed for quite racy photos. we are taken directly backwards. and people are ok with that. that’s misogyny in action.
- Ahoy! - Wednesday, Nov 9, 16 @ 12:16 pm:
If you did a population map for Illinois where blue was increase in population and red was decrease in population, they would be very similar. I’m not sure what that tells us, just find it interesting.
- ? - Wednesday, Nov 9, 16 @ 12:35 pm:
It seems like the vote totals out of the city are really high (even for an election year)? Is that how Mendoza won & Hillary big, enough to cancel basically the rest of the state?
- drew - Wednesday, Nov 9, 16 @ 1:11 pm:
Looks like Lake, DuPage, and Champaign got bluer than they were in 2012.
- Anonymous - Wednesday, Nov 9, 16 @ 1:54 pm:
It looks to me that on a statewide level, 2008 and 2012 were outliers, that the normal D/R breakdown is roughly 54-55% D. Now, it looks like on the local level the map may be moving to favor the R’s.
- ZC - Wednesday, Nov 9, 16 @ 1:57 pm:
Calling it now - some enterprising small businessman secure the patent on, “Don’t blame me, I live in Illinois” bumper stickers for 2020.
- A guy - Wednesday, Nov 9, 16 @ 1:59 pm:
To the update: It would appear that President Obama gets credit for changing the palette.
- A guy - Wednesday, Nov 9, 16 @ 2:00 pm:
Twice.
- LTSW - Wednesday, Nov 9, 16 @ 2:07 pm:
The collar counties went blue in 08 and stayed there in 12 and 16. The R’s are going to have to win back the collar counties if they have any hope of getting majorities in the legislature. Might take a new map to do it.
- 1988 - Wednesday, Nov 9, 16 @ 2:12 pm:
I think Bush 41 was the last GOP candidate to carry Illinois and he barely did so.
- wordslinger - Wednesday, Nov 9, 16 @ 2:18 pm:
–I think Bush 41 was the last GOP candidate to carry Illinois and he barely did so.–
No, Reagan 88.
- wordslinger - Wednesday, Nov 9, 16 @ 2:22 pm:
Despite all the pretty county colors, we’re aware that Clinton carried Illinois by +16? That’s not the +25 that Obama got in 2008, but it’s a whupping in any league.
That will continue as long as those suburban counties remain blue.
- DGD - Wednesday, Nov 9, 16 @ 2:25 pm:
That would be Bush 41 in 88.
- wordslinger - Wednesday, Nov 9, 16 @ 2:30 pm:
DGD, you are correct, mea culpa. Thank you.
- 1988 and counting - Wednesday, Nov 9, 16 @ 3:23 pm:
The elephant in the room is the lack of leadership in the Illinois Republican Party. Look at all of the Republican establishment players who took the bait and abandoned Trump after he was nominated. Did their write in votes help them win yesterday.
I highly doubt that supporting Trump would have resulted in electoral victories for Kirk and Dold and others, but I do wonder if a coordinated campaign effort might have produced better totals across the board. Most Republican candidates took an every man for himself approach once again.
What does the one poster call himself? “Circular Firing Squad.” That is the IL GOP.
- Grandson of Man - Wednesday, Nov 9, 16 @ 4:13 pm:
In the maps I see two popular Democrats (Bill Clinton and Obama) and two unpopular Democrats, Gore, Kerry and Hillary. Hillary completely lacked the buzz, the movement. Trump had it. Sanders had it. Obama and Bill Clinton had it.
- 1988 and counting - Wednesday, Nov 9, 16 @ 4:30 pm:
@Grandson:
Hillary was an awful candidate. Her nomination was rigged if the leaked emails can be believed and a close reading of the messages suggests that they were authentic. She had cozy relations with many media figures and pollsters. Even when playing a pat hand from a stacked deck, Hillary managed to lose to an unpopular and controversial “Republican” candidate.
I do not read to much into Hillary’s Illinois vote totals because Trump never really campaigned here. He held fundraisers and collected checks and left.
- downstate democrat - Wednesday, Nov 9, 16 @ 5:58 pm:
The Democratic Party’s trend of losing votes in rural, rust-belt regions like downstate IL has got to be addressed by party leaders, but is it possible to have those challenges addressed by someone other than DC-based consultants who don’t
understand flyover America.
- Angry Chicagoan - Thursday, Nov 10, 16 @ 6:56 am:
DD has it right. But I want to add Obama was a very special candidate for a lot of people whose popularity unfortunately disguised long-term rot for the Democrats across the Midwest at least from its Appalachian eastern end to the Missouri River through the Dakotas.
- Strobby - Thursday, Nov 10, 16 @ 8:24 am:
Lets see what it looks like after 2 years of Trump