Also the running mate conversations should be starting now especially for individuals like Kwame Raoul who might have multiple suitors. They need to pick their running mate before they start circulating.
Too early to tell. So many things could go wrong for potential runners. I think Biss and Pawar will be in for sure. They have been in politics long enough not to say the absolutely brutally dumb thing to sink a campaign… maybe….
I think we’re going to have a repeat of the 2016 GOP primary where everybody and their brother is in it.
Reason why: everyone thinks their way is the only way to take Rauner on. Biss and Pawar have very similar messages. Kennedy and Pritzker have somewhat similar ideas regarding spending. Beyond that, I think this primary is going to be a bit of a train wreck, especially with Rauner stirring the pot.
Whoever comes out on top needs to unite the state party around a concise and cohesive message to combat Rauner. Say what you will about his actions (or lack thereof), he loves campaignin’.
Pritzker- because why not but I suspect the guy will be more frugal than people think.
Kennedy- He is at 44 percent. His race to lose.
Biss- He is on a mission from god.
Pawar- see Biss explaination
Daiber- there is a path for this guy as the field grows and you can’t win if you don’t play.
A female dem candidate- With all the resistance fervor and women’s march stuff I am baffled EMILYs list or a woman has not organically grown out of this boys club of a race.
Latino or African American candidate: see explaination abover
On the republican side:
Bruce Rauner- Duh
A trump republican- the president has shown a willingness to flex in races since he’s been elected giving it 6:1 odds
Born again republican: if rauner vetos HB40 this is unlikely but if he signs it I give this 3:1 odds
I think Pritzker for sure, because he’ll end up with lots of broad-based party and labor support.
That support will come from Kennedy mostly, who will find the SoS job to look more and more appealing, as will remaining in the private sector. I don’t think Kennedy will catch fire this time, and he’ll need to ignite a huge conflagration if he hopes to win the nomination.
Pawar and Biss are fighting for the same voters. Biss too will look longingly at the SoS race (assuming the incumbent isn’t talked into changing his mind). Biss has already proven he’ll back down from a fight, and this time will be no different. Pawar has nothing to lose, so I think he’ll stick it out.
Daiber? Maybe. But like Manar, might have a better shot at LG. Better still if he was a woman. Since he’s not, I think he’ll see the writing on the wall and decide not to file for Governor.
Summers could be LG if he’s bored, or SoS if he’s ambitious. Again, though, if Jesse White hangs them up, that race is a very attractive opportunity.
I think we might, just might, see another candidate or two. Has Robin Kelly ruled it out yet? Kwame Raoul also wants to move up, so keep an eye on the African American community and watch where the various possible (maybe future) candidates line up. They could do a lot worse than make political friends with a billionaire. That’s a good short-term plan for somebody.
So I have it as Pawar v. Pritzker, setting up a classic David v. Goliath primary. Could be fun.
Pritzker and Kennedy, because they have the resources.
Biss, because he’s a true believer.
Daiber, because there’s a huge hole in the race.
I think Pawar defers to Biss.
It’s hard for me to imagine someone else jumping in. They’d need insta-credibility. Preckwinkle is the only one who comes to mind as being possible, but I don’t think she wants it.
I think Biss will file. He will have the apparatus to get the necessary signatures to secure his place, and Biss will be wise to use his new statewide apparatus as the test he will need honed, given the others that will be filing.
I think Kennedy files. Kennedy will have some old school “Chicago” organization to lean on, as well as some downstate traditional operatives that will be able to fan out and get the required signatures. Kennedy will probably try to work within traditional Democratic circles, while Biss, who will have those pockets too, will try to tap Bernie Sanders type populism to fill in gaps. Kennedy’s labor strength will be tested here too. To that…
Pritzker will file. Pritzker may try to be the “Labor” friend, and use the traditional Labor/Democratic meshing more than Kennedy. Where Kennedy may have “more measurable” traditional Democratic help, Pritzker’s unmatched wealth here will bring people out to help him get on the ballot to take on Rauner in the long game, thinking the “Noonan Plan” is the best plan for Democrats.
Pawar is 50/50, leaning yes, but might not meet an unchallengeable threshold. Depending how much of Biss’ thunder Pawar can steal, that 50/50 will waver parallel to that Biss strengths and weaknesses. Can Pawar build an organization? Of the four so far, Pawar, easily, has the most to prove in building a real solid Crew and apparatus to show success and show strength. Petitions might be the high hurdle that exposes Pawar weaknesses.
Summers is 40/60 filing, and may file with the enough over the minimum to stay on, maybe, or this run right now is for exposure in Chicago for something other than governor in 2018. With Pritzker and Kennedy in, Summers might be in a struggle with Pawar and Biss for Chicago Ward support outside the usual “power wards” (maybe) and more about building a coalition so Sunmers gets on the ballot and see if Summers can make some noise in a crowded field.
Biss: Clearly he sees a path and he’s can raise enough money to make it a race. If he’s smart, he gets a patsy to run for his Senate seat, which he can reclaim if he loses.
Pawar: He’s crazy enough, the question is whether he gets starved of money and throws his support to Biss.
Kennedy: For a guy who’s backed out of as many races as he has, it’s always a possibility. But he’s gone further than he ever has before and he’s the front runner.
Pritzker: I don’t think he actually files signatures. I don’t see the primary being kind to him, and he may realize that when he announces.
Biss will file because he is energized to drive in the issues lane with enough youthful support to gain the required signatures by the December deadline.
Pritzker will file and I agree with OW that he and Kennedy will battle it out for the traditional labor support.
Kennedy, who will remain the front runner in the polls, will file. Being the front runner will attract volunteers from labor and the party who will help him circulate the petitions in every region.
Pawer is a 50/50 — not sure he understands the breadth and depth of running statewide.
There is room for three different types of Democrats.
A rich one.
A smart one.
A centrist.
We got two rich ones, and two smart ones, but no centrists.
Pritzker can outmanouver Kennedy, and Biss can outmanouver Pawar. But that still leaves room for a centrist.
The centrist candidate will win the general but only can win the primary. So far, there isn’t a candidate. It isn’t clear at this time that a centrist is what the Democrats want.
If the Democrats nominate an experienced politician with centrists views on issues, they’ll win. With the announced candidates so far, Rauner has a chance.
I would like to see all the Democratic candidates move and calture the center by shunning the kind of nonsense that lost Clinton the General. I don’t care if she won Illinois, by the time the Illinois Gubernatorial election occurs, Illinois voters will not be reflective of the 2016 voter base.
Biss and Pritzker, gentlemen, there is a wide open base of voters on your right. Stop it with the silly talking points about Koch unisex bathrooms and sanctuary status. Train your fire on Rauner and Illinois economics. Beat Rauner by telling his supporters how he raised gheir taxes by wasting $11,000,000 A DAY by not governing like an adult.
All of the announced candidates will file. The signature threshold is 5,000 with 90 days to circulate. If nothing else, all of them will be able to hire it done if they can’t get their own volunteers or various political organizations to get it done. I believe we will see two or three more candidates: an African-American, probably Summers, a woman, and Pat Quinn.
Pritzker and Kennedy will file for sure, I really don’t see what they have to lose by doing so. For Biss, I feel like he’s going to adopt a wait and see approach. Pawar will probably file but admittedly I’m just basing that off of speculation from this site.
Biss - he’s all in, not backing out again
Pritzker - ego+money goes a long way
Kennedy - he’s the front runner, and prob will be still at time of petitions.
Kennedy: yes, barring any major gaffes. The name recognition alone keeps him in the game thru this year.
Pritzker: yes, but it’s likely team Rauner jumps on him early since they rightly fear his money. Hope he did opp research on himself before deciding…
Biss: all in. If he’s going vs machine and Rauner, then why settle for Comptroller? Plus he’ll get strong support from grassroots groups that have been active on state level.
Pawar: maybe not, but mostly I can’t figure out his angle. Is it LG? 2019 in case Rahm doesn’t run again for an unforeseen reason? The new deal messaging is nice, but his City Council record will get scrutinized. If his timing is right, he can walk away a winner in this in so many ways since he is the underdog of underdogs.
- Fax Machine - Tuesday, Apr 4, 17 @ 2:56 pm:
All 6 and PAT QUINN. Daiber gets bounced for sigs
- Fax Machine - Tuesday, Apr 4, 17 @ 2:57 pm:
Also the running mate conversations should be starting now especially for individuals like Kwame Raoul who might have multiple suitors. They need to pick their running mate before they start circulating.
- Fax Machine - Tuesday, Apr 4, 17 @ 3:00 pm:
Also if Susana Mendoza got in the Gov primary she would win it.
- The Captain - Tuesday, Apr 4, 17 @ 3:00 pm:
Biss, Pawar, Kennedy and Pritzker
- Dolphin - Tuesday, Apr 4, 17 @ 3:11 pm:
Pritzker and Biss. In a way it would be a rematch of the Quinn v Hynes race. Only this time I hope the right guy wins.
- Rich Miller - Tuesday, Apr 4, 17 @ 3:11 pm:
I asked for explanations.
- Ducky LaMoore - Tuesday, Apr 4, 17 @ 3:14 pm:
Too early to tell. So many things could go wrong for potential runners. I think Biss and Pawar will be in for sure. They have been in politics long enough not to say the absolutely brutally dumb thing to sink a campaign… maybe….
- NIU Grad - Tuesday, Apr 4, 17 @ 3:16 pm:
When is the deadline for that/running mates?
- Fax Machine - Tuesday, Apr 4, 17 @ 3:19 pm:
Biss is the only one I have questions about because he has a record of pulling out and would have to give up his seat.
- Fixer - Tuesday, Apr 4, 17 @ 3:20 pm:
I think we’re going to have a repeat of the 2016 GOP primary where everybody and their brother is in it.
Reason why: everyone thinks their way is the only way to take Rauner on. Biss and Pawar have very similar messages. Kennedy and Pritzker have somewhat similar ideas regarding spending. Beyond that, I think this primary is going to be a bit of a train wreck, especially with Rauner stirring the pot.
Whoever comes out on top needs to unite the state party around a concise and cohesive message to combat Rauner. Say what you will about his actions (or lack thereof), he loves campaignin’.
- Come on Man! - Tuesday, Apr 4, 17 @ 3:24 pm:
Pritzker- because why not but I suspect the guy will be more frugal than people think.
Kennedy- He is at 44 percent. His race to lose.
Biss- He is on a mission from god.
Pawar- see Biss explaination
Daiber- there is a path for this guy as the field grows and you can’t win if you don’t play.
A female dem candidate- With all the resistance fervor and women’s march stuff I am baffled EMILYs list or a woman has not organically grown out of this boys club of a race.
Latino or African American candidate: see explaination abover
On the republican side:
Bruce Rauner- Duh
A trump republican- the president has shown a willingness to flex in races since he’s been elected giving it 6:1 odds
Born again republican: if rauner vetos HB40 this is unlikely but if he signs it I give this 3:1 odds
Labor republican: possible 10:1 odds
Dan Cronin: because a man can dream
- 47th Ward - Tuesday, Apr 4, 17 @ 3:25 pm:
I think Pritzker for sure, because he’ll end up with lots of broad-based party and labor support.
That support will come from Kennedy mostly, who will find the SoS job to look more and more appealing, as will remaining in the private sector. I don’t think Kennedy will catch fire this time, and he’ll need to ignite a huge conflagration if he hopes to win the nomination.
Pawar and Biss are fighting for the same voters. Biss too will look longingly at the SoS race (assuming the incumbent isn’t talked into changing his mind). Biss has already proven he’ll back down from a fight, and this time will be no different. Pawar has nothing to lose, so I think he’ll stick it out.
Daiber? Maybe. But like Manar, might have a better shot at LG. Better still if he was a woman. Since he’s not, I think he’ll see the writing on the wall and decide not to file for Governor.
Summers could be LG if he’s bored, or SoS if he’s ambitious. Again, though, if Jesse White hangs them up, that race is a very attractive opportunity.
I think we might, just might, see another candidate or two. Has Robin Kelly ruled it out yet? Kwame Raoul also wants to move up, so keep an eye on the African American community and watch where the various possible (maybe future) candidates line up. They could do a lot worse than make political friends with a billionaire. That’s a good short-term plan for somebody.
So I have it as Pawar v. Pritzker, setting up a classic David v. Goliath primary. Could be fun.
- Fax Machine - Tuesday, Apr 4, 17 @ 3:29 pm:
William Kelly will challenge Bruce Rauner in the GOP primary.
- Oneman - Tuesday, Apr 4, 17 @ 3:30 pm:
Biss, Pawar, Kennedy, Pritzker & Vallas
Biss, he is raising good small money and likely has good grassroots buzz. That is a strong signal for him to go for it.
Pawar, why not? It’s all upside for him get exposure around the state and all of that.
Kennedy, well if you ask mom for money to run you kind of have to run.
Pritzker, the second longest shot to actually do it on my list, but I think pride is going to drive him in part.
Vallas, my dark horse may see a fragmented field and see an opportunity.
- Arsenal - Tuesday, Apr 4, 17 @ 3:32 pm:
Pritzker and Kennedy, because they have the resources.
Biss, because he’s a true believer.
Daiber, because there’s a huge hole in the race.
I think Pawar defers to Biss.
It’s hard for me to imagine someone else jumping in. They’d need insta-credibility. Preckwinkle is the only one who comes to mind as being possible, but I don’t think she wants it.
- Rich Miller - Tuesday, Apr 4, 17 @ 3:33 pm:
===When is the deadline===
Sigh.
Try reading again: December.
- Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Apr 4, 17 @ 3:35 pm:
Here are my thoughts on this, “today”
I think Biss will file. He will have the apparatus to get the necessary signatures to secure his place, and Biss will be wise to use his new statewide apparatus as the test he will need honed, given the others that will be filing.
I think Kennedy files. Kennedy will have some old school “Chicago” organization to lean on, as well as some downstate traditional operatives that will be able to fan out and get the required signatures. Kennedy will probably try to work within traditional Democratic circles, while Biss, who will have those pockets too, will try to tap Bernie Sanders type populism to fill in gaps. Kennedy’s labor strength will be tested here too. To that…
Pritzker will file. Pritzker may try to be the “Labor” friend, and use the traditional Labor/Democratic meshing more than Kennedy. Where Kennedy may have “more measurable” traditional Democratic help, Pritzker’s unmatched wealth here will bring people out to help him get on the ballot to take on Rauner in the long game, thinking the “Noonan Plan” is the best plan for Democrats.
Pawar is 50/50, leaning yes, but might not meet an unchallengeable threshold. Depending how much of Biss’ thunder Pawar can steal, that 50/50 will waver parallel to that Biss strengths and weaknesses. Can Pawar build an organization? Of the four so far, Pawar, easily, has the most to prove in building a real solid Crew and apparatus to show success and show strength. Petitions might be the high hurdle that exposes Pawar weaknesses.
Summers is 40/60 filing, and may file with the enough over the minimum to stay on, maybe, or this run right now is for exposure in Chicago for something other than governor in 2018. With Pritzker and Kennedy in, Summers might be in a struggle with Pawar and Biss for Chicago Ward support outside the usual “power wards” (maybe) and more about building a coalition so Sunmers gets on the ballot and see if Summers can make some noise in a crowded field.
That’s… who I think will file… and why.
- so... - Tuesday, Apr 4, 17 @ 3:44 pm:
Biss: Clearly he sees a path and he’s can raise enough money to make it a race. If he’s smart, he gets a patsy to run for his Senate seat, which he can reclaim if he loses.
Pawar: He’s crazy enough, the question is whether he gets starved of money and throws his support to Biss.
Kennedy: For a guy who’s backed out of as many races as he has, it’s always a possibility. But he’s gone further than he ever has before and he’s the front runner.
Pritzker: I don’t think he actually files signatures. I don’t see the primary being kind to him, and he may realize that when he announces.
- Downstate Dem - Tuesday, Apr 4, 17 @ 3:49 pm:
Biss will file because he is energized to drive in the issues lane with enough youthful support to gain the required signatures by the December deadline.
Pritzker will file and I agree with OW that he and Kennedy will battle it out for the traditional labor support.
Kennedy, who will remain the front runner in the polls, will file. Being the front runner will attract volunteers from labor and the party who will help him circulate the petitions in every region.
Pawer is a 50/50 — not sure he understands the breadth and depth of running statewide.
- VanillaMan - Tuesday, Apr 4, 17 @ 3:50 pm:
There is room for three different types of Democrats.
A rich one.
A smart one.
A centrist.
We got two rich ones, and two smart ones, but no centrists.
Pritzker can outmanouver Kennedy, and Biss can outmanouver Pawar. But that still leaves room for a centrist.
The centrist candidate will win the general but only can win the primary. So far, there isn’t a candidate. It isn’t clear at this time that a centrist is what the Democrats want.
If the Democrats nominate an experienced politician with centrists views on issues, they’ll win. With the announced candidates so far, Rauner has a chance.
I would like to see all the Democratic candidates move and calture the center by shunning the kind of nonsense that lost Clinton the General. I don’t care if she won Illinois, by the time the Illinois Gubernatorial election occurs, Illinois voters will not be reflective of the 2016 voter base.
Biss and Pritzker, gentlemen, there is a wide open base of voters on your right. Stop it with the silly talking points about Koch unisex bathrooms and sanctuary status. Train your fire on Rauner and Illinois economics. Beat Rauner by telling his supporters how he raised gheir taxes by wasting $11,000,000 A DAY by not governing like an adult.
- W Flag - Tuesday, Apr 4, 17 @ 3:53 pm:
I have my doubts about Chris Kennedy who has played the role of Hamlet so often in the past.
- Fax Machine - Tuesday, Apr 4, 17 @ 4:31 pm:
Summers could be a black centrist - very good lane to be in
- Clark - Tuesday, Apr 4, 17 @ 4:38 pm:
If the Dems were smart, they wouldn’t have too many file to avoid any damage in the primaries. I see it this way in mini primaries:
Biss v Pawar: Biss wins the Bernie Sanders primary and he’s going to be the “progressive” card on the ticket
Pritzker v Kennedy: Pritzker wins the big $ primary and will probably have most of the union support anyway
Wild card: Can’t really think of anybody, but Pat Quinn going Round 2 would be amusing.
If it’s just Biss, Pritzker, and someone to be named later, it should make for a very safe primary for the dems.
- sal-says - Tuesday, Apr 4, 17 @ 4:58 pm:
Don’t care. I’ll vote for ANY of them. Including Quinn. Or a Republican not named Raunner.
Citizens need to Save IL from Raunner. If we have anything left to save by the election.
- Reformed Public Servant - Tuesday, Apr 4, 17 @ 5:17 pm:
Pritzker- $$$
Biss- He is owed it for bowing out of Comptroller race.
Pawar- he’s the IL “outrage” candidate.
Jarrett- name, skills at executive level, and woman with deep Chicago ties.
WATCH OUT BOYS!
- titan - Tuesday, Apr 4, 17 @ 5:33 pm:
The really credible candidates will generally file on the first day (November 27 this round)
- Michelle Flaherty - Tuesday, Apr 4, 17 @ 5:51 pm:
The field is cleared for Jake Brimberry
- Michael Westen - Tuesday, Apr 4, 17 @ 6:58 pm:
All of the announced candidates will file. The signature threshold is 5,000 with 90 days to circulate. If nothing else, all of them will be able to hire it done if they can’t get their own volunteers or various political organizations to get it done. I believe we will see two or three more candidates: an African-American, probably Summers, a woman, and Pat Quinn.
- DS - Tuesday, Apr 4, 17 @ 8:15 pm:
Pritzker and Kennedy will file for sure, I really don’t see what they have to lose by doing so. For Biss, I feel like he’s going to adopt a wait and see approach. Pawar will probably file but admittedly I’m just basing that off of speculation from this site.
- JoeMaddon - Tuesday, Apr 4, 17 @ 10:09 pm:
Biss - he’s all in, not backing out again
Pritzker - ego+money goes a long way
Kennedy - he’s the front runner, and prob will be still at time of petitions.
Pawar drops out.
Kurt doesn’t run.
- Veil of Ignorance - Wednesday, Apr 5, 17 @ 6:56 am:
Kennedy: yes, barring any major gaffes. The name recognition alone keeps him in the game thru this year.
Pritzker: yes, but it’s likely team Rauner jumps on him early since they rightly fear his money. Hope he did opp research on himself before deciding…
Biss: all in. If he’s going vs machine and Rauner, then why settle for Comptroller? Plus he’ll get strong support from grassroots groups that have been active on state level.
Pawar: maybe not, but mostly I can’t figure out his angle. Is it LG? 2019 in case Rahm doesn’t run again for an unforeseen reason? The new deal messaging is nice, but his City Council record will get scrutinized. If his timing is right, he can walk away a winner in this in so many ways since he is the underdog of underdogs.