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Sabato rates Illinois a “toss-up,” but Rauner is “most endangered”

Thursday, Apr 20, 2017

* Sabato’s Crystal Ball

Gov. Bruce Rauner (R) is ready to spend millions to win reelection, but he might have a wealthy opponent in the general in either venture capitalist J.B. Pritzker (D) — who just injected $7 million into his nascent campaign — or businessman Chris Kennedy (D), a scion of Robert Kennedy. Pritzker and Kennedy seem to be the Democratic favorites, but there could be a very crowded field. Rauner has a weak approval rating, so he will be vulnerable in Democratic-leaning Illinois. Toss-up

* Asked on Twitter why Illinois wasn’t “lean Democratic,” one of the author’s responded…


I tend toward agreement. Nobody knows yet who will win the Democratic primary. Plus, the Republicans have the Madigan issue here.

* As the governor said yesterday during a GOP fundraiser, do we want a strong future for our children

“Or are we gonna stay under the thumb of a group of corrupt, career politicians who’ve been dragging our state down the drain for decades? Corruption, cronyism, patronage, deficit spending, higher taxes, job losses, poorly funded schools. Are we gonna stay on this track we’ve been on for years? […]

“There’s only one thing holding us back and that’s corrupt Democrats down in Springfield controlling our government for their own benefit.”

The man is not going to be easy to defeat.

…Adding… But…


- Posted by Rich Miller        

43 Comments »
  1. - Gruntled University Employee - Thursday, Apr 20, 17 @ 11:20 am:

    If the Democrats in this state had half the messaging prowess that Rauner has it would be a slam dunk.


  2. - Markus - Thursday, Apr 20, 17 @ 11:21 am:

    Madigan should do the right thing for the party and the people of Illinois by announcing his retirement effective on Rauner’s last day in office.


  3. - The Dude Abides - Thursday, Apr 20, 17 @ 11:21 am:

    It won’t be easy because at least the ILGOP shows the ability to utilize 21st century recruiting techniques. Whoever the Democrat nominee is they need to hire a capable person to direct the campaign. That’s the key as I see it. If they do that I would call the race as leaning Democrat. The midterm should provide some headwinds for Rauner and he won’t have a record to run on. It will be Madigan this and Madigan that. I think Madigan would do the Democrats a favor if he announced that he would retire if Rauner is defeated in his reelection bid.


  4. - Juice - Thursday, Apr 20, 17 @ 11:22 am:

    “who’ve been dragging our state down the draing for decades?”

    I realize that the “g” at the end of “drain” is probably just a typo. But I’m really hoping that the Governor has taken to inappropriately adding g’s to the end of words after a couple of years of oddly dropping them.


  5. - Tom - Thursday, Apr 20, 17 @ 11:23 am:

    He will be beaten.


  6. - Anon221 - Thursday, Apr 20, 17 @ 11:23 am:

    Rauner- “Corruption, cronyism, patronage, deficit spending, higher taxes, job losses, poorly funded schools.”

    Might want to look in the mirror. Some of these already apply to Rauner. Before 2018, all might have sprouted from his focus on growing the economy and his frustration with education.


  7. - Ducky LaMoore - Thursday, Apr 20, 17 @ 11:24 am:

    ===Madigan should do the right thing for the party and the people of Illinois by announcing his retirement effective on Rauner’s last day in office.===

    He should do it the day after the primary 2018.


  8. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Apr 20, 17 @ 11:25 am:

    To beat an incumbent Illinois governor, it takes the owning of the message, an extraordinary amount of capital, in bodies and monies, and that governor being so swamped by their own numbers, no argument made by that governor will have any resonating quality to win.

    Rauner isn’t in any of those windows or buried so deeply that as an incumbent he will be easily defeated.


  9. - Gruntled University Employee - Thursday, Apr 20, 17 @ 11:27 am:

    Ducky,

    I respectfully disagree, I believe he should do it about 3 weeks before the General, after Rauner has wasted hundreds of millions of his and his friends dollars.


  10. - Meh - Thursday, Apr 20, 17 @ 11:29 am:

    I don’t see Madigan retirning, or announcing his retirement, as the key to Rauner’a defeat. On the contrary, Rauner will see this as a major victory and why he should win re-election. Plus I don’t necessarily think Rauner cares much for who the Speaker is, it’s just that Madigan is a good selling point.

    To the post, I agree. It’s a toss-up. If Pritzker or Kennedy win they might turn off the energetic Bernie base (i won’t even go into how self-defeating that would be). But the Dems are going to need all the money to at the very least march Rauner’s.


  11. - zatoichi - Thursday, Apr 20, 17 @ 11:29 am:

    So what has Rauner actually accomplished to get us out from ‘under the thumb’ or ‘because Madigan’? He talks a good game, but $13B in unpaids, no budget, AFSCME, universities, social services all point to worse outcomes then what existed 3 years ago before he stepped into the big chair.


  12. - Arock - Thursday, Apr 20, 17 @ 11:34 am:

    “If the Democrats in this state had half the messaging prowess that Rauner has it would be a slam dunk.” - What would their message be “Yes we know we ran the State into the abyss but give a second chance to keep doing the same things in the future, surely we won’t get the same results.”


  13. - Anon221 - Thursday, Apr 20, 17 @ 11:35 am:

    OW- I would add one word onto your last sentence:

    “Rauner isn’t in any of those windows or buried so deeply that as an incumbent he will be easily defeated.”

    Yet. And that is the hope that still remains in the box for the Dems to tap into.


  14. - Anonymous - Thursday, Apr 20, 17 @ 11:35 am:

    I like Larry, Larry is generally good, but he was way, way off on the presidential election.


  15. - Dance Band on the Titanic - Thursday, Apr 20, 17 @ 11:40 am:

    Without a budget, the pile of unpaid bills will be much closer to $20 billion by election day. Cannot imagine how Rauner explains that away.


  16. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Apr 20, 17 @ 11:44 am:

    Oh - Arock -, lol

    ===What would their message be…

    We Democrats will pay our bills, restore funding to state universities, stop the hold of hostages, like social services, and get back to where a governor cares about people, and not an agenda.


  17. - Il annoyed - Thursday, Apr 20, 17 @ 11:44 am:

    I think Rauner can win if he closes a budget deal soon. He can say he fought the “Dem Machine” and claim a victory against them and ensure that people have some time to forget the pain of not having a budget before the general.

    If he drags the budget stalemate on til 2018 and kills a few universities, people won’t forget the mayhem in time to buy his outside reformer act.


  18. - Arsenal - Thursday, Apr 20, 17 @ 11:46 am:

    Toss-Up sounds about right, especially with Kondik’s explanation. There’s a couple too many unknowns to say who has the edge.

    Kind of a silly exercise right now, before the filing deadline is even closed.


  19. - Chucktownian - Thursday, Apr 20, 17 @ 11:56 am:

    Rauner loses easily. The question is whether it’s double digits. Watch this warehouse scandal that’s growing. It appears “Governor Reform” is just as corrupt as his predecessors.


  20. - Annonin' - Thursday, Apr 20, 17 @ 11:58 am:

    Yup clear out that Madigan ’cause everyone knows that DopeyDuct’s word is good as gold. Buy that B* and we will give a guided tour of new warehouse space suddenly on the market TeeHee


  21. - Cassandra - Thursday, Apr 20, 17 @ 11:59 am:

    I agree.

    By most accounts he is a good retail politician, and it seems unlikely that his personal wealth would be an issue if Kennedy or Pritzker is his opponent.

    It will be interesting to see how the two final candidates handle the tax increase issue, assuming none has been imposed before the election. Will the Democrats be advocating flat out for the big tax increase many appear to believe is necessary. Rauner presumably will continue to say he is trying to stave one off without reform in a state with an acknowledged history of corruption. Many citizens are only marginally affected by the state’s budget problems, if at all, and may not support a tax increase in exchange for vague promises of improvement, especially if these improvements will have little impact on their lives. Fewer and fewer citizens, for example, have defined benefit pensions.


  22. - ste_with_av_en - Thursday, Apr 20, 17 @ 12:00 pm:

    The Dems keep thinking saying Trump and Rauner together will bring him down. I don’t think they understand that will not work. However, every Dem can me tied to Madigan. Even if there is a Trump backlash, there’s a good chance it won’t affect Republicans at the state level.


  23. - say what - Thursday, Apr 20, 17 @ 12:01 pm:

    The minute a university closes, cps students can’t go to school and gun violence follows, prisoners die due to lack of nurses, a small town folds, vendors stop being enablers he will own, he will lose.


  24. - Jocko - Thursday, Apr 20, 17 @ 12:08 pm:

    Anon221 beat me to it! I guess cronyism, deficit spending, and underfunded schools only count when the OTHER guy does it.


  25. - Rogue Roni - Thursday, Apr 20, 17 @ 12:08 pm:

    Meh. I kinda agree. There’s also the matter of he who shall not be named in the Oval Office. He’s as popular as the clap in Chicago. Dont see us going 2 years without another major scandal. We’ll see.


  26. - Anonymous - Thursday, Apr 20, 17 @ 12:20 pm:

    A srtong and effective Democrat campaigner will negate a good deal of the anti Madigan rants, and expose Rauners heartless ineptitude.


  27. - Langhorne - Thursday, Apr 20, 17 @ 12:24 pm:

    Yesterday, we were “close” to a deal.

    Today, we are back to ripping corrupt, self serving politicians.

    But we do have 30 and 60, who are honest and will do the right thing, right? Wouldnt want impure votes on the GB.


  28. - Dr J - Thursday, Apr 20, 17 @ 12:50 pm:

    “corrupt Democrats down in Springfield controlling our government for their own benefit”

    …said the wealthy businessman/investor whose entire gubernatorial platform is essentially “we need to make Illinois a more lucrative business environment.”

    His income jumped by how much during his first year in office?


  29. - Responsa - Thursday, Apr 20, 17 @ 12:53 pm:

    Whoever ends up being the best of the best Democratic candidate in 2018 is still going to have to deal with the Madigan issue. Why oh why doesn’t the man retire?


  30. - Huh? - Thursday, Apr 20, 17 @ 1:04 pm:

    “I’m the only one thing holding us back in Springfield by controlling our government for my personal agenda that has nothing to do with the budget.” Fixed it for you.


  31. - Rod - Thursday, Apr 20, 17 @ 1:07 pm:

    I agree with Rich that Governor Rauner will not be easy to beat, part of that will be due to the fact that Speaker Madigan will be in the shadow of whoever is the Democrat challenger, part of that will also be due to Rauner being able to run against corrupt Chicago and the Democrats from there who have legislatively controlled Springfield for years.

    Jettisoning Madigan or his retirement will not work either, because the public sector unions totally don’t trust President Cullerton even though the Speaker can be a dangerous ally too. As the Union guys say outside of pro-Rauner meetings – We like Mike. They don’t say – we like John.

    While Willy has repeatedly pointed out that constitutionally the Governor owns a failure to have a balanced budget adopted, the Governor’s consistent campaign message will be the fault lies with the Democrats and their inherent insider politics based on beholden interests. While he is the rich guy who is beholden to no one. The counter message from JB Pritzker or Kennedy will be what exactly, will they create space between themselves and the regular Chicago Democrats?


  32. - RNUG - Thursday, Apr 20, 17 @ 1:29 pm:

    == What would their message be … ==

    Part of the message will need to be the estimated $20B in backlogged bills. By then, just paying the bills up to current (if you did) will take about 50% of the budget, we’ll be spending 25% on repaying the pension shortage, leaving only 25% (or $10B in dollars) to actually pay for all State programs.

    Yes, I know they will just keep deferring the bill backlog, but that is the kind of picture you can paint Rauner into. I can visualize Ross Perot style charts.

    Then be honest and tackle the need for a tax increase. Make it perfectly clear both Rauner and whoever the Dem candidate is will be raising taxes. Then pivot and propose pushing for a graduated income tax that only hits the rich.

    You can paint Rauner as personally greedy, wanting to not pay higher taxes. And if it is JB on the Dem side, he can come off as public spirited and willing to step up and actually solve problems … including personally paying more in taxes. Done right, the contrast will be stark … I can even visualize some ads alternating between black & white and color to drive home that contrast.


  33. - JB13 - Thursday, Apr 20, 17 @ 1:31 pm:

    Rauner can win. His message? “I am the only thing standing between the Democrats and the massive tax increases they wish to impose to benefit their public sector “cronies,” especially thoae in Chicago, and thus avoid the pain for the decades of mismanagement they inflicted on the state.”
    What’s the Democratic response? We’re not raising taxes? Public sector workers aren’t our biggest backers? Everything is Rauner’s fault for ruining the paradise he inherited in 2014? We’re not going to steer larger and larger shares of state money to Chicago? Good luck with any of that. I’d bet a Democrat wins in 2018, just because this is Illinois, and there’s a lot of Democratic anger right now, thanks to Trump. But it will be a lot closer than you AFSCME types on this board believe.


  34. - OldIllini - Thursday, Apr 20, 17 @ 1:43 pm:

    After Trump won the Republican nomination last summer, commenters in the NYT and WSJ were saying Hillary was in, why bother holding the election.
    These comments on Rauner having a chance are much more realistic.


  35. - Texas Red - Thursday, Apr 20, 17 @ 1:56 pm:

    With the current set of weak sisters in the Dem race, Rauner’s chances look good. Rauners path to victory…keep his foot out of his mouth and let Madigan do the talking for him.


  36. - Responsa - Thursday, Apr 20, 17 @ 2:06 pm:

    It is undeniable that there was voter tension and energy at play in our state in 2014 that opened the door for a Rauner candidacy and a Rauner message about Illinois’ future. Both the Democratic and Republican parties in Illinois need to be honestly assessing what ways that zeitgeist may have substantially changed and conversely in what ways it is still present and paramount in voters’ minds. I don’t see a lot of introspection about all that going on.


  37. - Anonymous - Thursday, Apr 20, 17 @ 2:27 pm:

    Rauner spent$60 million blaming Quinn, now he doesn’t want to accept the blame?


  38. - RNUG - Thursday, Apr 20, 17 @ 2:39 pm:

    == Rauner spent$60 million blaming Quinn, now he doesn’t want to accept the blame? ==
    Hi
    He’s going to spend $100M - $125M to blame Madigan …


  39. - Molly Maguire - Thursday, Apr 20, 17 @ 2:49 pm:

    He is just god-awful


  40. - Skirmisher - Thursday, Apr 20, 17 @ 3:37 pm:

    Unless the demo Challenger can out lie Rauner (Not likely), then I think their only salvation is to somehow rally the voters behind a significant reform movement. That will necessarily put him at odds with the demo establishment. RNUG had a good suggestion that the great reform movement center on a graduated income tax system.
    But who am I kidding? None of these candidates can pull that off. My money (But not my vote) is on Rauner.


  41. - ejhickey - Thursday, Apr 20, 17 @ 3:43 pm:

    I feel sorry for the winner in 2018


  42. - Smitty Irving - Thursday, Apr 20, 17 @ 4:38 pm:

    Arock - please look up Pate Philip, and with a/v recording, ask him why he let Mike Madigan boss him around 1993 - 1995 and 1997 - 2003. Eagerly looking forward to your report.


  43. - Smitty Irving - Thursday, Apr 20, 17 @ 4:42 pm:

    What is the average historical headwind Rauner will be facing as the GOP has the White House and it is an off - year election?


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