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Question of the day

Thursday, May 18, 2017

* Democratic gubernatorial candidate Ameya Pawar just finished an “Ask Me Anything” event on Redditt. Click here to see it.

* From The Economist

Even so, says Christopher Mooney of the Institute of Government and Public Affairs in Urbana, it is not inconceivable that a less well funded candidate, such as Mr Pawar or Mr Biss, might win the Democratic primary next March. Mr Pawar makes a persuasive pitch to progressives, promising a “new deal” with more funding for public schools, universal child care, legalised pot, big investments in infrastructure and reform of the criminal-justice system. He points out that he is the only person of colour in the race in a state where, by 2020, most children will be either from a minority or mixed-race. And he promises to fix Illinois’s abysmal finances with a progressive income tax and the elimination of tax loopholes for companies.

* The Question: What do you think is Pawar’s best path to victory?

- Posted by Rich Miller        

33 Comments »
  1. - AlfondoGonz - Thursday, May 18, 17 @ 3:16 pm:

    Russian hacking.


  2. - Taxation = Civilization - Thursday, May 18, 17 @ 3:22 pm:

    I think he needs to continue talking to people downstate with respect/not pandering to them.

    I also think he can win by being the non-billionaire candidate in an age when there are some mightly unpopular billionaires controlling our gov. Rauner, Griffin, Trump. I suspect there will be a backlash.

    That said, he’s still a long shot, but I wouldn’t dismiss him.


  3. - Been There - Thursday, May 18, 17 @ 3:24 pm:

    I think he has only 2 chances. One is he hangs around until Kennedy and Biss hopefully drop out and then some oppo dirt comes out on Pritzker. Or maybe he does a great job in the first debate and his poll numbers possibly shoot up. I would handicap both options as long shots.


  4. - A guy - Thursday, May 18, 17 @ 3:24 pm:

    Running for Alderman again.


  5. - Postbot 5999 - Thursday, May 18, 17 @ 3:26 pm:

    King Ralph it. Hope all the other candidates get together for a photo shoot and get mass electrocuted together leaving him the last person standing.


  6. - ChiGuy - Thursday, May 18, 17 @ 3:26 pm:

    Dropping out at the beginning of fall and announcing his mayoral campaign


  7. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, May 18, 17 @ 3:27 pm:

    If his Ward magically gains about 2.6 million voters and they all magically vote Pawar…

    Honestly?

    The only way he could even get within 10 points is if both Kennedy and Pritzker implode in January and establishment Dems feel Pawar is the lone candidate standing that won’t implode later against Rauner.

    I can’t see any significant or large voting blocks or a base described as such making Pawar viable.


  8. - WTF - Thursday, May 18, 17 @ 3:38 pm:

    People exposed to Pawer are impressed by him.

    His only chance is to try to hang around until there are forums/debates that people are paying attention to. I think Democratic Party voters would love to see a fresh young face playing Bernie Sanders. They want to be excited.

    But he can’t excite people who’ve never heard of him.


  9. - Anonymous - Thursday, May 18, 17 @ 3:45 pm:

    Winning the Powerball


  10. - Norseman - Thursday, May 18, 17 @ 3:45 pm:

    I’ll go with AlfondoGonz’ answer.


  11. - 47th Ward - Thursday, May 18, 17 @ 3:47 pm:

    At this point in 2003, nobody gave Obama much chance to beat Dan Hynes or Blair Hull. Pawar has the most charisma of any candidate running. If he can raise some money and hang around, one brilliant ad at the right time can change things quickly.

    The analogy to 2003 is a HUGE stretch, I admit. But if Pawar is Obama, Kennedy is Hynes, Pritzker is Hull, does that make Biss Pappas or Skinner?


  12. - Robert the Bruce - Thursday, May 18, 17 @ 3:49 pm:

    I’m a bit more optimistic than OW, but it’s certainly a longshot.

    1) Raise enough money to be relevant. He’ll be far outspent by Pritzker, but he still could raise enough to be on TV.

    2) Become media darling (earn free media).

    3) Convince most Bernie Sanders supporters that he is a better option than Biss among non-corporate Democrats. This, to me, is a sizable voting bloc.

    4) Kennedy drops out, narrowing the field, making Pawar the most viable alternative to Pritzker, earning him more of a chance to do #1-#3.


  13. - OurMagician - Thursday, May 18, 17 @ 3:52 pm:

    He would need to 1)dominate somehow downstate 2)have a block of Cook/Suburban voters for him en masse and 3)have voters realized that replacing a rich guy with a richer guy isn’t exactly in their best interest. The Pritzker tax issue problem isn’t that he appealed them, it’s how he did it by buying the mansion next door, running it down, and having large campaign donation look as if they influenced the decision. Pawar would need to tap into voter anger with the games the rich can play that they can’t in order to be successful.


  14. - Jerry 101 - Thursday, May 18, 17 @ 3:55 pm:

    Pritzker spends all his money destroying Kennedy. Kennedy spends all his money destroying Pritzker. Biss spends all his time attacking Pritzker and Kennedy. Pewar just spends his time and money building name recognition. He wins with a plurality of a very divided vote.

    Something like Pewar 27%, Pritzker 25%, Kennedy 23%, Biss 20%, Others 5%


  15. - Cubs in '16 - Thursday, May 18, 17 @ 4:20 pm:

    Demonstrate to voters, especially indies, why he has the best chance to defeat Rauner. His platform sounds good but he needs to convince us how he’s going to achieve these things. Promises aren’t going to cut it.


  16. - Anonymous - Thursday, May 18, 17 @ 4:26 pm:

    Find three or four words which crystalize the ideas he wants to implement and change his name to those ideas. Then when people go into the voting booth they will not be confused.
    “Tax Rich Fund Schools” or whatever.


  17. - CrazyHorse - Thursday, May 18, 17 @ 4:28 pm:

    His only path is to hope the current Powerball jackpot keeps growing and he has the only winning ticket.


  18. - Berwyn Latino - Thursday, May 18, 17 @ 4:45 pm:

    Keep pointing out he’s a minority candidate in a field of ‘dorky old rich white guys.


  19. - Saluki - Thursday, May 18, 17 @ 4:49 pm:

    Running for alderman.


  20. - Tired - Thursday, May 18, 17 @ 4:51 pm:

    Win the lottery, in any state other than illinois. But good luck tho.


  21. - Albany Park Patriot - Thursday, May 18, 17 @ 4:59 pm:

    If and when the Bernie folks get involved will make a big difference. Might swing things for the alderman or Sen. Biss. Don’t see the Bernie folks getting all that jazzed about Pritzker or Kennedy.


  22. - Liberal Elite - Thursday, May 18, 17 @ 5:06 pm:

    The most votes ever in a Dem Gov Primary was 2002, with a total 1.2 million votes in a three way race with Blago winning by 25k and with 457k. 982,000 just voted for Bernie 6 minutes ago and are super excited to show up to the polls again.

    How many Bernie voters do you think are pulling a lever for Pritzker and Kennedy? As many as 1k? Even that?


  23. - Free Set of Steak Knives - Thursday, May 18, 17 @ 5:14 pm:

    Not sure if Rauner would rather face Pawar or Biss — probably Biss — but Pawar’s best hope is Rauner running a dark money campaign to convince all of the pot smokers in Illinois to vote for Pawar.

    Plus, lots of really, really negative dark money spending against JB and Kennedy.

    Pretty much do what the Russians and Trump purportedly tried to do for Bernie.


  24. - Arsenal - Thursday, May 18, 17 @ 5:21 pm:

    Everything I can think of is basically out of his hands, which is just a hell of a place to be. I like him a lot, I just don’t see it.


  25. - Berwyn Latino - Thursday, May 18, 17 @ 5:45 pm:

    Biss doesn’t seem to catch, he’s kind of bleh. Pritzker will likely run away with this but I think the race for #2 is between Pawar and Kennedy. Biss has more dough and can outlast Pawar, but, Pawar is young and a minority. Pawar’s best hope is to last until it’s one on one with JB.


  26. - Anonymous - Thursday, May 18, 17 @ 9:33 pm:

    Third party candidate running against one billionaire and one multimillionaire

    We will see how big the Bern is in Illinois


  27. - Lucky Pierre - Thursday, May 18, 17 @ 9:35 pm:

    That was me


  28. - VanillaMan - Thursday, May 18, 17 @ 10:25 pm:

    He’s running to raise his recognition, not for governor.

    His best path?
    Everyone else drops out.


  29. - Joe Bidenopolous - Friday, May 19, 17 @ 12:08 am:

    ===Running for Alderman again.===

    There’s a not-so-new gal in town, and she’ll smoke him, but anyway


  30. - Joe Bidenopolous - Friday, May 19, 17 @ 12:22 am:

    So seriously, he has a path. Rauner is going to use that $70 million (which will grow) to the hilt.

    He’s going after JB right now. That’s to a) to find out if JB has the stomach for the fight, and b) if so, to weaken him in the primary in the hopes that his deep pockets don’t make it to November 2018.

    If JB doesn’t have the gumption or if he weaken considerably, the fire turns to Kennedy, the scion of an outdated, geographically-irrelevant-to-Illinois political family without the capital to back up the history. He wilts.

    By the time this happens, it’s late in the process. Biss has already dropped, being the smart guy he is and knowing he’s already screwed the unions and that most of the LIFT backers are with literally anyone else.

    And that leaves Pawar…10 long months from now….standing


  31. - Joe Bidenopolous - Friday, May 19, 17 @ 12:30 am:

    Note - none of that was defense of, or support for, Pawar. It was merely outlining a potential path to the nomination (and likely crushing in the general).

    Now, let me tell you something though. I live in a part of 40 that until a few years ago was in 47. Our family is embedded in the community, schools, sports, all the good stuff. We know all the neighbors…and they’re CRAZY in support of Pawar. I mean, probably literally insane. It’s like Bernie 1.2 (yep, intentional).

    Personally, I want to tell them that Pawar doesn’t have what it takes to stand toe-to-toe with the governor and come out on top. But then I remember they’re going to ask me who does. And I don’t have an answer to that yet


  32. - NorthsideNoMore - Friday, May 19, 17 @ 8:09 am:

    He is planning for the future, Building name rec and a War chest. Not ready for prime time but stay tuned.


  33. - @MisterJayEm - Friday, May 19, 17 @ 8:23 am:

    “What do you think is Pawar’s best path to victory?”

    A strong showing in the evening gown followed by a decisive win in the swimsuit competition.

    – MrJM


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