|
*** UPDATED x1 *** More on that Kennedy poll
Tuesday, Jul 11, 2017 - Posted by Rich Miller * The Chris Kennedy campaign just finished a call-in for political reporters about its latest poll. As we’ve already discussed, Kennedy’s poll has the candidate ahead of JB Pritzker 44-38. Here are a few notes…
A property tax issue polls worse than an FBI tapes issue. Think about that for a second. People are up in arms about property taxes, man. * Consultant Eric Adelstein repeatedly said during the briefing that the campaign is confident that it will have the resources to get its message out and compete. *** UPDATE *** Yesterday was the A-1 filing deadline day, and Kennedy reported a mere $438,834.92 in large contributions. That’s not good at all. [For some reason, my previous search included stuff that shouldn’t have been in there. This is a revised post.] He had $907K on hand at the beginning of the last quarter. We’ll see what their burn rate is by July 17th, when D-2s are due.
|
 |
|
|
- Fax Machine - Tuesday, Jul 11, 17 @ 2:13 pm:
Did they test fav/unfav on Rauner & Madigan?
- 47th Ward - Tuesday, Jul 11, 17 @ 2:13 pm:
=== 80 percent know Pritzker. 70 percent know Kennedy===
That is mildly surprising. I know he’s been spending money on TV and mail, but I still would have bet Kennedy was the better known of the two.
- Real - Tuesday, Jul 11, 17 @ 2:18 pm:
Pritzker has too many negaitives to win against Rauner.
- Ron Burgundy - Tuesday, Jul 11, 17 @ 2:19 pm:
You mean Tio Hardiman isn’t holding his 28% from last time? /s
- Come on man! - Tuesday, Jul 11, 17 @ 2:19 pm:
Mirror my thinking on the last thread.
Bottom line here- Kennedy needs to tighten stuff up and this is his. JB can use money to drive a wedge but cracks are needed first. This is far from over.
Also, bummer for Biss and Pawar.
- Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Jul 11, 17 @ 2:24 pm:
Oh boy…
From the other post today, prefacing this call-in
===*** UPDATE 1 *** On background, I’m told by the Kennedy folks that the poll “is not good for JB.” Pritzker, they say, has a “low ceiling” and “explosive negatives. The electorate, they claim, “wants to go with Kennedy by every measure.”===
Couple thoughts on that…
Starting here…
=== They mentioned two big problems for Pritzker in the polling. The FBI tapes of Pritzker talking to Blagojevich, for example, led to 55 percent of respondents saying they have “major doubts about supporting JB Pritzker.” That number was 60 percent on Pritzker’s property tax issues.===
Ok… that’s 55-60% negative feelings on the issues.
“Low ceiling”, or “tough climb”, or whatever they want to say. The truth is.. Yikes.
…
… or is it.
Same poll….
===* 45-5 positive/negative for Kennedy.
46-12 positive/negative for Pritzker===
Only a 7 point increase in negatives in generic positive negative… and this…
===contrast, the top testing negative on Kennedy was 21 percent: “He talks tough on property taxes but benefited” from property tax breaks.===
With a 34-39% higher “negative issues to candidate” spread… The poll has…
“45-5 positive/negative for Kennedy.
46-12 positive/negative for Pritzker.”
A single point difference in positives?
I dunno if I read this all that bad for Pritzker, and Kennedy, who has all this room for growth is standing still while Pritzker is still climbing with those two issues still hanging out and not tied off?
This isn’t bad news for either, but it’s not a crushing negative for Pritzker.
- Leon Despres - Tuesday, Jul 11, 17 @ 2:24 pm:
Kennedy may poll well when you have a trained poll operator on the phone talking him up (or throwing some softball negatives), but my bet is the minute people see the man n front of the camera folks will realize he’s not serious. Biss’s path… narrow, but growing wider by the day.
- VanillaMan - Tuesday, Jul 11, 17 @ 2:29 pm:
I’m starting to think Kennedy has a chance. I’ll repeat myself, boring and competent will win this race. Kennedy just might find a path. He’s powerfully boring, has the charisma of a clothes pin, and appear more competent than Rauner.
Kennedy can bore us to death over tax details while sounding like someone cognisant of tax concerns.
Now if he could do what Rauner refuses to do - he’d Kennedy will sound like a winner: praise and be positive about his adopted state. Rauner hates Illinois and repeatedly tells us we aren’t where he wants to retire. Citizens will respond positively to a leader praising Illinois and reminding us that we’re a great place to live.
- Real - Tuesday, Jul 11, 17 @ 2:34 pm:
Kennedy in the lead without much money is a good look. Madigan probably made a mistake with the Pritzker endorsments and all the negatives he has.
- Arsenal - Tuesday, Jul 11, 17 @ 2:37 pm:
==This isn’t bad news for either, but it’s not a crushing negative for Pritzker.==
It’s basically the exact kind of poll you would expect a campaign to put out, with the exact kind of spin. It’s good for Kennedy. You wouldn’t expect them to publicize a poll that wasn’t. And while you can only read so much into it, well, the spin will try to say otherwise.
- Real - Tuesday, Jul 11, 17 @ 2:38 pm:
Pritzkers property tax issue is way worse and one that Rauner would love to made ads about.
- blue dog dem - Tuesday, Jul 11, 17 @ 2:43 pm:
One Republican dud candidate. Six dud Democratic candidates. Looks like we will end up with yet another dud governor.
- Anon0091 - Tuesday, Jul 11, 17 @ 2:45 pm:
Real,
We get it. You don’t like Pritzker. That’s fine. But if this is the “looks real bad for JB” stuff, I’ll beg to differ. Zero evidence he has a ceiling and zero evidence that he’ll have a serious problem when people start to focus on the race.
Right now, it’s a race for insiders like us. The real race begins with the first debate which is probably in December. Meanwhile, Kennedy can’t raise money and people like him until they see or hear him. Pritzker is infinitely more likeable and that will matter down the road.
If I have to pick who has the better odds at the nomination, the smart money is still on Pritzker.
- The Captain - Tuesday, Jul 11, 17 @ 2:45 pm:
=== I’m starting to think Kennedy has a chance. I’ll repeat myself, boring and competent will win this race. ===
I don’t necessarily disagree. Also, Kennedy’s team seems to think that Pritzker has disqualifying negatives. Ok, let’s give them the benefit of the doubt and say that’s the case, why aren’t they then positioning Kennedy as the safe alternative? Instead they’re selling him as “radical change”. I don’t get it.
- walker - Tuesday, Jul 11, 17 @ 2:46 pm:
Not especially strong for either Kennedy or JB. Can be spun either way.
Only mild surprise, to keep watching, is Biss in “low single digits.”
- Rahm's Middle FInger - Tuesday, Jul 11, 17 @ 2:47 pm:
Where are JB’s polls? If they are so excited about his numbers… why aren’t they releasing theirs?
- VanillaMan - Tuesday, Jul 11, 17 @ 2:48 pm:
For the same reason McDonalds claims that their Southwestern salad is spicy.
- Arsenal - Tuesday, Jul 11, 17 @ 2:53 pm:
==Not especially strong for either Kennedy or JB. Can be spun either way.==
Yup, but Kennedy in the lead, so he gets to say so.
==Only mild surprise, to keep watching, is Biss in “low single digits.”==
Very surprising to me.
==If they are so excited about his numbers… why aren’t they releasing theirs?==
Because they’re not the ones trying to prebut disappointing fundraising numbers?
- Anonymous - Tuesday, Jul 11, 17 @ 2:54 pm:
Kennedy already lost. He won’t have the resources to keep up with JB and Biss will come on strong late in the race and cut into Kennedy’s base.
I bet an Eli’s cheese cake Kennedy finishes 3rd behind Biss.
JB: 38%, Biss 29%, Kennedy 26%, 7% among the rest.
- Real - Tuesday, Jul 11, 17 @ 2:56 pm:
Anon0091 - Tuesday, Jul 11, 17 @ 2:45 pm:
Real,
We get it. You don’t like Pritzker. That’s fine. But if this is the “looks real bad for JB” stuff, I’ll beg to differ. Zero evidence he has a ceiling and zero evidence that he’ll have a serious problem when people start to focus on the
…..
If you read the comments on the first Kennedy article you will see where I say I like Jb. I want him to win but my only issue is his negatives. I want Kennedy, Jb, or any dem to beat Rauner, but at the same time you don’t want to put a candidate out there that has too many negatives like Jb.
- Educ - Tuesday, Jul 11, 17 @ 2:57 pm:
Not surprised by recognition gap, we’ve gotten ten or twelve mailers for Pritzker downstate, zero for Kennedy.
- wordslinger - Tuesday, Jul 11, 17 @ 4:08 pm:
=== 80 percent know Pritzker. 70 percent know Kennedy===
That is mildly surprising.–
I’m very surprised. I would have bet the farm that Kennedy had higher name ID.
- MickJ - Tuesday, Jul 11, 17 @ 4:12 pm:
“Eric Adelstein” Eric played yesterday and made it to day two of the WSOP main event. Just above average stack of chips. Go Eric
- Responsa - Tuesday, Jul 11, 17 @ 5:15 pm:
It’s way too early to effectively gauge voter interest in the 2018 gubernatorial race and way too soon to assume that the voters who *are* paying attention have chosen a candidate to root for and stick with. These polls are meaningless other than as a “reason” to issue
campaign PR press releases.
- Responsa - Tuesday, Jul 11, 17 @ 5:25 pm:
==I bet an Eli’s cheese cake Kennedy finishes 3rd behind Biss.==
You think Biss will do better outside of metro area than Kennedy? That would surprise me greatly.
But as I said above, it’s early.
- Open minded - Tuesday, Jul 11, 17 @ 6:32 pm:
I started as a supporter of Kennedy. I’ve known Biss for years so I might’ve supported him but he is a (I don’t mean to be rude) lightweight. I met JB at an event and immediately liked the guy. The more people meet JB the more their going to love him.
- me - Tuesday, Jul 11, 17 @ 10:05 pm:
Anyone who knows polling knows these numbers are just ok for Kennedy. His up a handful on JB but started with the Kennedy name. JB will kill him with the money. Kennedy will never be able to keep up. Slow and steady wins the race. My money is on JB
- Anonymous - Tuesday, Jul 11, 17 @ 10:12 pm:
Responsa: Biss is going to win the northside of Chicago, the north shore and every college town. JB is going to cut into Kennedy’s downstate lead because he is the only one who will be able to afford to go up on tv in all 10 Illinois media markets. I don’t see a coalition of voters that put Kennedy over 30%. He is boxed in and really has no room to stake out his own natural base.