Question of the day
Friday, Aug 25, 2017 - Posted by Rich Miller
* The Quad City Times editorial appears to have been written before the school funding reform deal was announced…
Bruce Rauner’s administration is on the brink of collapse. Only a deft hand, which Rauner has struggled to produce, can jerk it from the ledge on which it teeters. […]
The past five weeks haven’t gone well.
Nor have the past two and a half years. And, here, is the real threat to Rauner’s political capital and retention of his seat in 2018. Basically nothing of value was accomplished after more than two years of budgetary strife. All those systemic failings Rauner correctly identified remain in place. His messaging — commingling re-election politicking with policy — has undermined any ability to actually make deals with General Assembly Democrats. Republicans in the Legislature are, again, under pressure to break from him on the school funding issue and override his veto.
Wednesday night’s staff shakeup is just another opening for his political opponents. It’s just another excuse for his Democratic gubernatorial challengers to tee off. It’s just another signal of an administration that, after years, just hasn’t been able to gain traction.
Rauner’s general analysis of that which ills Illinois wasn’t incorrect. But his inability to win the argument dogs him. It began with a short-sighted attempt to create right to work zones as soon as he entered office, immediately souring any future relationship with unions. It became more obvious as each piece of his “Turn Around Agenda” fell away. Desperation oozed this summer as Rauner pounded on General Assembly Democrats in stops throughout he state, only to ultimately lose the budget battle because he lost members of his own party.
Bruce Rauner’s administration has been on the brink for weeks now. But, on Wednesday, it became incredibly clear that he has no idea how to salvage it.
* The Question: Assuming it becomes law, do you think Gov. Rauner has saved his political life by agreeing to an education funding reform deal, or is it too late? Click here to take the poll and then explain your answer in comments, please.
- Curl of the Burl - Friday, Aug 25, 17 @ 11:54 am:
We still have veto session and an entire spring session to slog through as well. I will withhold my judgment until June 1, 2018.
- Blue dog dem - Friday, Aug 25, 17 @ 11:56 am:
Voted too late
His only prayer of a chance is the weak field of the Terrible Trio
- Annnoin' - Friday, Aug 25, 17 @ 11:56 am:
GovJunk was on the sidelines … no even lst to raise the scholarship program it will be funny to promote this after callin’ it a bailout.
- Me Again - Friday, Aug 25, 17 @ 11:59 am:
Rauner’ inability to compromise will lead to his downfall. The citizens of Illinois will not be fooled once again in the next election.
- Lamont - Friday, Aug 25, 17 @ 12:00 pm:
Even if this passes, HB40 is coming up soon. Rauners feet will be held to the fire for the remainder of his term.
- Casual observer - Friday, Aug 25, 17 @ 12:00 pm:
Will he let AFSCME strike if and when the time comes? He may have once thought he wanted that. Now, not so much.
- 360 Degree TurnAround - Friday, Aug 25, 17 @ 12:01 pm:
I voted too late. He has created too many enemies. You need more friends than enemies here.
- Amalia - Friday, Aug 25, 17 @ 12:01 pm:
too late. he’s just been ridiculous on this.and in the meantime, his operation is in tatters. the only teeny bit that matters for him is if it includes the Cardinal bailout. of course, for those of us who think that is a travesty, that will also hurt him.
- Pelonski - Friday, Aug 25, 17 @ 12:02 pm:
I voted that he saved his political life, not because it should have, but because you can never underestimate the American voter’s willingness to vote for a terrible candidate. If his political life was based on actual merit, he would have been written off well over a year ago.
- shane n - Friday, Aug 25, 17 @ 12:03 pm:
That he now has his own enemies list of people actively trying to disrupt and derail his administration is an indicator to me that he’s lost it when it comes to politics, if he ever had it at all. Thankfully, the GA has just decided to move on with governing the state void of an executive.
- Blue dog dem - Friday, Aug 25, 17 @ 12:03 pm:
Lamont. Correct. Mrs Blue and her pack of she-wolves would disown Rauner if he signs it
- The Captain - Friday, Aug 25, 17 @ 12:05 pm:
Rauner has told the voting public that the school funding bill is a Chicago bailout and now Rahm Emanuel is praising the final agreement as being even more generous to Chicago than what he was asking for. I think the blowback for that will be more difficult for Republican GA members facing primaries but it doesn’t make it easier for Rauner either. He has no one to blame but himself though, this is how he chose to frame the debate and now he has to live with the long term consequences of short term political expediency.
- Fixer - Friday, Aug 25, 17 @ 12:07 pm:
I voted too late. As it is, he has done nothing to increase his support in the state among voters. Part of what put him over the top last time was assistance from union households. I doubt that he can count on that kind of support again.
- Anon221 - Friday, Aug 25, 17 @ 12:07 pm:
Voted for too late, but the pessimist in me reminds me my vote has been “Trumped” before. He might be able to pull off a “saved again, I’ve really changed this time” political persona just long enough, with the right (pun intended) crew to actually get re-elected. Especially if the primary is a disaster for the Dems.
- Montrose - Friday, Aug 25, 17 @ 12:11 pm:
I voted too late, but I don’t actually think it is, nor do I think he saved his political life. I think it will come down to how he handles the FY19 budget. Can he strike a deal and actually say he signed a budget during his tenure as Governor? That is much closer to election time.
- Cassandra - Friday, Aug 25, 17 @ 12:12 pm:
Who will his opponent be? I also see weaknesses in all his potential opponents we’ve heard of so far. It’s never too late. But he’ll need some really good campaign ads.
- Bruce (No, not him) - Friday, Aug 25, 17 @ 12:12 pm:
I’m hopefull it’s too late. The man is not good for Illinois.
- wordslinger - Friday, Aug 25, 17 @ 12:13 pm:
It can only help him. I think it’s too early to say whether his political life is truly in dire condition or not. 11/18 is far away, he has lots of money and not one of his potential opponents has been put to the test of a statewide race.
But there is absolutely no upside for any governor to have chaos in K-12. It’s nothing but angry heat. Bedrock GOP districts are going to be hurt badly very soon if the deal doesn’t get done.
And QCT states a univeresal truth: only a deft hand can jerk it.
- Oswego Willy - Friday, Aug 25, 17 @ 12:14 pm:
Voted “not too late”
“Why??”
Even at 63% disapproval, even with these past weeks, even without a complete signed budget to his credit, even with the firing or leaving of his Crew that owned messaging, even with the horribly bad “Body Man” and “Brittany Carl” hires, even with cartoons, even with Trump, even with no one wanting to run with him… even with Besler and Proft running the political…
$100+ million covers lots of sins.
Rauner has a year.
Can the Dem nominee run “Skyhook, in reverse”?
It’s tough to beat a sitting Illinois governor.
If this was January, 2018? Might feel completely different.
“Rauner vetoed that”… let’s see if a year of that is used…
Let’s see if the daily pressure continues…
As a question?
Nope, not too late.
- Pot calling kettle - Friday, Aug 25, 17 @ 12:15 pm:
Too late. If you veto a bunch of stuff and then agree to all that stuff during negotiation, why did you create the crisis in the first place? The only “gain” from the agreement is the diversion of tax funds into a scholarship/voucher program that can easily be framed as benefiting rich people.
The crisis creatin’ will be remembered by House and Senate Republicans who will be very leery of such behavior in an election year. And how does this debacle not get played over and over and over next summer and fall?
- illinoised - Friday, Aug 25, 17 @ 12:15 pm:
Too late. One correct move does not negate the egregious budget debacle as well as blunders.
- Real - Friday, Aug 25, 17 @ 12:16 pm:
I voted too late.
How did he save himself if CPS still gets what he called a bailout?
- Nick Name - Friday, Aug 25, 17 @ 12:17 pm:
Too late. Maybe a string of successful compromise packages could help him salvage what’s left of his term, but compromise isn’t his thing. At the first opportunity he’ll revert to his preferred “me vs. them” style of governin’ and this time next year, he’ll be scrambling to catch up to whoever the Dem challenger is.
- DrMark - Friday, Aug 25, 17 @ 12:18 pm:
Too late - the incompetence has been shown, and the clumsiness at governing. His only chance is to finally work with AFSCME on a contract. If he remains obstinate on the contract, he’s toast.
- Anonymous - Friday, Aug 25, 17 @ 12:18 pm:
It could be salvaged. A true ace comm team that reflects his views accurately with competence, and with a complete reversal in Rauners philosophy, attitude toward enemies, attitude toward learning his job, shucking off his phony Carhart van drivin’ regular ‘ol run of the mill billionaire. And about 10 other things, then yes he has a slight chance of becoming relevant. Just kidding. No way.
- Real - Friday, Aug 25, 17 @ 12:18 pm:
I would like to see how the Rauner supporters reaction now after Rauner agreed to a so called Chicago bailout.
- hisgirlfriday - Friday, Aug 25, 17 @ 12:20 pm:
I don’t think signing or not signing this bill matters one bit to his political life.
His only way of getting reelected is making people hate/oppose his opponent more than him.
Signing this bill doesn’t keep any promise or he made to his voters or win him a new constituency.
Its just the Chicago bailout in exchange for a tax break that makes our budget less balanced.
- 47th Ward - Friday, Aug 25, 17 @ 12:21 pm:
Let’s see: the Governor got rolled first on the budget, and again on the school funding bill. He’s fired or alienated most of his staff. He’s about to sign a bill hated by the Nativist wing of his party, income taxes went up 32%, property taxes continue to go up, he alienated the pro-choice community, he signed a terrible ComEd bill that will jack up electric rates around the state, thousands of social service providers went bankrupt waiting for state funding, Illinois universities will need a decade to recover from the mass exodus of students, did I mention income taxes went up?
Did I miss anything?
And the coup de grace, the hook onto which he is trying desperately to hang his hat, is a pilot tax credit program loved by Mayor Emnauel, Speaker Madigan and President Cullerton.
Epic, spectacular, collossal fail. By nearly every measure, his administration has been a disaster for Illinois. Unless that is politically popular and no one told me, then I’d say it’s pretty late in the game to turn things around.
Politically, he really needs his own Turnaround Agenda. As I said previously, he came to shake up Springfield. Well, it looks like Springfield has shaken up Rauner. Politics ain’t beanbag. Or bidness.
- Century Club - Friday, Aug 25, 17 @ 12:22 pm:
I voted saved himself, but call it a temporary reprieve.
Helps him because proving he can govern and extract concessions from Dems is a critical piece of his re-election narrative. This, plus criminal justice reform, automatic voter registration and the Trust act will give him a nice string of accomplishments to lure moderate voters looking to punish Democrats for the tax increase.
Will he be able to keep it up? Who knows
- Lamont - Friday, Aug 25, 17 @ 12:22 pm:
OW, I completely understand your cautiousness, but with all that has happened in the last 2.5 years, I cannot help but think it’s too late for Rauner. $100 million and all. Unlike Trump, who didn’t need the popular vote to win, Rauner does. And I surmise that Rauner got a lot of disgruntled union votes last time to put him over the top. Rauner has been horrible to the state unions, and unions in general. I think any Democratic nominee is going to beat Rauner. It might not be a clobbering, but I’m betting it’s minimally 4%.
- Anonymous - Friday, Aug 25, 17 @ 12:24 pm:
Signing the school funding bill probably is a positive for Rauner but as far as being reelected goes, the odds are against him. In 2017 media publications that had been supportive of him finally saw the light and turned on him. Fourteen months is a long time in politics and he has that long to win back a lot of people that he has lost. Deciding to compromise on the school funding bill was a political decision. But the way he framed the argument before the compromise, that it was a Chicago bailout, was a strategic error.
The bottom line is that in the fall of 2018 Illinois will be in worse shape than it was before he became Governor. If I’m campaigning against Rauner I would pound that simple message home. The GOP would have a better chance to retain the Governor’s office if Rauner bowed out but I don’t look for that to happen.
- Oswego Willy - Friday, Aug 25, 17 @ 12:26 pm:
- Lamont -
Noted.
Also noted that Hilkary won Illinois by 17 points, Mendoza beat Munger by 4 points, and Rauner losing to a generic Dem by double digits.
The 2 in 5 union households… I think I’ve heard that number bantered about a time or 3
A year in politics is like 7… It’s forever.
Let’s see which Dem wins, how they win, how they take it to Rauner… I need to “see”
It’s not too late.
- Grandson of Man - Friday, Aug 25, 17 @ 12:29 pm:
I voted too late, though I have no idea what the future brings. I’m thinking in terms of possible messaging, that Rauner secretly wanted and needed the tax hike and budget. His quick vetoes and GA overrides should be shown as him rolling over for Mikey faster than you can say Jack Robinson. He purposely refused to put up a fight and try to beat back the overrides.
That’s what I would do if I was Democrats or a PAC–try to dampen GOP base enthusiasm by taking Rauner’s supposed strengths and using them against him.
- Anonymous - Friday, Aug 25, 17 @ 12:30 pm:
Its definitely not too late, but his recent behavior/actions should not give anybody confidence that he can rebound. With that said, next November is a long time from now and he is likely running against someone who also lacks experience.
- Michelle Flaherty - Friday, Aug 25, 17 @ 12:33 pm:
Does a $75 million tax credit buy him absolution for when he signs HB 40?
- winners and losers - Friday, Aug 25, 17 @ 12:36 pm:
Not too late.
“We oppose any effort to create private school vouchers in Illinois,” chairman Ald. Scott Waguespack (32nd) wrote Friday morning. “No self-respecting Democrat should accept this brazen Rauner-Trump-DeVos tactic to decimate public schools, rob our children’s classrooms of resources and weaken teachers’ unions. Democrats in Springfield and Mayor Emanuel must unite to reject this unacceptable proposal, and force the parties to get back to the table to negotiate a new deal.”
- winners and losers - Friday, Aug 25, 17 @ 12:36 pm:
Not too late.
“We oppose any effort to create private school vouchers in Illinois,” chairman Ald. Scott Waguespack (32nd) wrote Friday morning. “No self-respecting Democrat should accept this brazen Rauner-Trump-DeVos tactic to decimate public schools, rob our children’s classrooms of resources and weaken teachers’ unions. Democrats in Springfield and Mayor Emanuel must unite to reject this unacceptable proposal, and force the parties to get back to the table to negotiate a new deal.”
- Earnest - Friday, Aug 25, 17 @ 12:36 pm:
I wouldn’t say it saved his political life, but it will avoid a lot more damage. I think his political life can improve quite rapidly as long as he can put a decent and stable team together. Until he has an actual Democratic opponent, and very possibly even after, he’s still a strong contender to win re-election.
- Molly Maguire - Friday, Aug 25, 17 @ 12:39 pm:
Too late. School funding is a gimme. Everyone assumed an agreement would eventually have to be reached.
- Trapped in the 'burbs - Friday, Aug 25, 17 @ 12:40 pm:
Sadly, I agree with OW. Voters have short memories. None of the democratic hopefuls are very exciting and Rauner will set new spending records but he’s going to have to make a decision on abortion and probably legalized recreational marijuana. If past is prologue, he’ll blow it.
- Molly Maguire - Friday, Aug 25, 17 @ 12:45 pm:
Seconding others here that his biggest problem going forward will not be Dems, but his own “allies” and former staff members. He is going to get eaten up from both sides.
- Try-4-Truth - Friday, Aug 25, 17 @ 12:45 pm:
He only postponed the inevitable. I don’t see how he wins reelection. He was barley over 50% when all of the cosmic, political stars were aligned for him 3 years ago.
I don’t see how he wins with today’s environment.
- JS Mill - Friday, Aug 25, 17 @ 12:47 pm:
Voted Too late- he and his wife have been exposed for who they really are. He won’t have help for his left flank next election.
The caveat is that if a opponent emerges that has zero money, that could make this a little different.
- Anonymous - Friday, Aug 25, 17 @ 12:49 pm:
Not too late. He saved himself with this.
Look at the Proft react- Game changing win
McQueary- I’m sure a nice editorial after telling Gov to go with SB1 now she can say they are doing SB1 but got extra- school choice which the Trib loves.
Rauner- my new education bill ensures fair funding for all students, I got Madigan to bend and go against the terrible special interests, I have increased education funding for our children every year since being in office and I vetoed the tax increase.
Be assured the new ads for the Governor, the talking head radio shows will all say Governor Rauner’s education bill. Fixed a problem that has plagued this state for 30 years. Rauner fixed it.
Governor’s own.
- Bigtwich - Friday, Aug 25, 17 @ 12:51 pm:
As a white male I do not have anything more to add to the discussion,
- DeseDemDose - Friday, Aug 25, 17 @ 12:51 pm:
Rauner is a goner. Nobody trusts him anymore. He has thrown the folks that helped get him elected under the bus. He has fired the new creeps he hired that did exactly what he hired them to do. Way to many lies and flip flops.
- Flapdoodle - Friday, Aug 25, 17 @ 12:52 pm:
Voted “too late” but only because there was no “hanging on by a thread” option. It’s a long time yet to the election, the Dem nominee is unknown (and each major contender has significant liabilities), and the guv is a pretty good campaigner.
Still, Rauner is in a deep hole that he best not dig any deeper. The scrutiny will be intense; any misstep will be jumped on by Dems and media. Voter memories fade, but digital files don’t — Dems already have a lot of good media ammunition. And there’s always the turnout factor — will the GOP base have the midterm blues, will too many Dems assume victory and stay home?
It will be an instructive ride.
- Norseman - Friday, Aug 25, 17 @ 12:57 pm:
Too late. The damage has been done by Rauner’s and IPI’s mishandling of the AV and staff changes. Despite massive support for SB 1, he chose to make Chicago bailout the issue for his opposition. Then he surprises everyone with ancillary issues never discussed. Finally, he agrees to a compromise that gives Chicago what it needs. This is the message folks will hear, not one of a strong leader.
- 47th Ward - Friday, Aug 25, 17 @ 12:59 pm:
===Look at the Proft react- Game changing win===
LOL.
- walker - Friday, Aug 25, 17 @ 1:13 pm:
Anyone who can clearly blame his opponents for a tax increase that he tried to stop, starts with extra chips. The schools opened on time, so having no budget for two years will fade in significance. Rauner has still got a chance.
Also, national issues might be the key factors in driving turnout.
- Responsa - Friday, Aug 25, 17 @ 1:15 pm:
As important and valuable as this blog is to IL governing I will say here again a version of what I seem to say in many threads: There is a confirmation bias in these threads that often does not necessarily track with what’s being observed and heard out in the general public. I don’t know if he “saved” himself at least temporarily or not. But I do think it will help blunt some of the criticism and I firmly and increasingly believe more than ever that it matters a great deal who Gov. Rauner’s opponent turns out to be in 2018 as the key to whether he will be re-elected –even more than what the Governor himself says and does over the next few months.
- @MisterJayEm - Friday, Aug 25, 17 @ 1:15 pm:
It’s never too late for someone with Rauner’s bank accounts.
– MrJM
- Rich Miller - Friday, Aug 25, 17 @ 1:17 pm:
===There is a confirmation bias in these threads that often does not necessarily track with what’s being observed and heard out in the general public.===
The dude’s disapproval rating is over 60 percent and you’re chastising critical commenters? Pluck the plank out of your own eye.
- Aldyth - Friday, Aug 25, 17 @ 1:22 pm:
As much as I would like to think it is too late, we’ve seen a lot of voters in my area who only pay attention to what’s on the surface and are readily influenced by political ads. A lot won’t pay any attention to what’s actually happened when there is the right rhetoric played for them.
- Flynn's mom - Friday, Aug 25, 17 @ 1:33 pm:
It’s way too late. He has shown that he is not capable of being governor. His tantrums, lies and lack of knowledge regarding our state have come through loud and clear. Rauner cares about Rauner not the people of Illinois.
- RNUG - Friday, Aug 25, 17 @ 1:35 pm:
If it was just about Rauner, I would say he is toast.
But we have to remember, he won because he “wasn’t Pat Quinn” and he has the money to get that message out. The people that still support Rauner are die-hards; they will show up to vote. Heck, I even like a few of his ideas and don’t like some of the big spending plans certain D’s are floating. I didn’t vote for Rauner (first time not voting R for Gov), but I’m keeping my options open.
So it’s really going to depend on who the D’s run against him … and if there is enough money for the D message to get through.
- Try-4-Truth - Friday, Aug 25, 17 @ 1:38 pm:
===== - Responsa - Friday, Aug 25, 17 @ 1:15 pm:
As important and valuable as this blog is to IL governing I will say here again a version of what I seem to say in many threads: There is a confirmation bias in these threads that often does not necessarily track with what’s being observed and heard out in the general public. I don’t know if he “saved” himself at least temporarily or not. But I do think it will help blunt some of the criticism and I firmly and increasingly believe more than ever that it matters a great deal who Gov. Rauner’s opponent turns out to be in 2018 as the key to whether he will be re-elected –even more than what the Governor himself says and does over the next few months. =====
Here is a basic fact, from the general public…
I did nothing for Pat Quinn. I gave no money, I walked no precincts, I made no phone calls, and I had no sign in my yard. Next year will be a busy year for myself and my family.
I am “all in” in next year’s election. I don’t even care who the Democratic nominee is. I may not even vote in the primary. I really don’t care. I will do whatever it takes to defeat Gov. Rauner. There are lots of people just like me. We gave up on Gov. Quinn. We won’t make that mistake again.
And, I live “down-state”. I live far away from Cook County. This is the difference between 2014 and 2018.
(I have the same story for 2020 BTW)
- Anonymous - Friday, Aug 25, 17 @ 1:42 pm:
Rauner won against an incumbent who had begun by establishing a reputation for incompetence then engaged in a needless battle against the state’s senior citizens. Quinn is gone now.
This tims around, who would be on Rauner’s side?
- Responsa - Friday, Aug 25, 17 @ 1:42 pm:
Oh, I’m not questioning the legitimacy of how individual people choose to respond to the QOTD. And, yeah, I am fully aware he is not so popular in many circles including some who previously voted for him.
But a thing I am very serious about is cautioning people about too willingly basing so much of their opinion of future events on published private polls and purported approval/disapproval ratings today.
- Walter - Friday, Aug 25, 17 @ 1:45 pm:
Rauner won against an incumbent who had begun by establishing a reputation for incompetence then engaged in a needless battle against the state’s senior citizens. Quinn is gone now.
This tims around, who would be on Rauner’s side?
- Nick Name - Friday, Aug 25, 17 @ 1:55 pm:
See CapFax post here: https://tinyurl.com/y8aakjue
This is why I voted “too late.” Gov. Gaslight can’t even wait to sign a compromise bill to start trashing it.
- igotgotgotgotnotime - Friday, Aug 25, 17 @ 4:46 pm:
Rauner took a safety to avoid giving up a touchdown. But he’s so far behind at this point, so disorganized, seemingly disheartened- he’s toast.