Capitol - Your Illinois News Radar » *** UPDATED x1 *** Illinois economy “stuck in neutral”
SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      Mobile Version     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
*** UPDATED x1 *** Illinois economy “stuck in neutral”

Wednesday, Sep 20, 2017

* As I’ve tried to point out over the past several weeks, Illinois’ economy has been sliding downward for months. With all the other stuff going on, I neglected to post this press release the other day…

The Illinois Department of Employment Security (IDES) announced today that the unemployment rate increased +0.2 percentage points to 5.0 percent in August and nonfarm payrolls decreased by -3,700 jobs over-the-month, based on preliminary data provided by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and released by IDES. July job growth was revised down to show an increase of +600 jobs rather than the preliminary estimate of +2,100 jobs.

August’s monthly payroll drop kept over-the-year job growth well below the national average. While Illinois job growth has had its ups and downs since the beginning of the year, the 3-month trend shows average monthly gains of 1,100 jobs per month from June to August, while the six-month trend shows a -100 per month average job loss from March to August.

“The Illinois economy is stuck in neutral with hardly any growth over the past several months,” said IDES Director Jeff Mays. “As a result, this has caused the state to experience a rising unemployment rate over the past three months.”

“Illinois is working tirelessly to highlight our strongest assets – our strategic location and dedicated workforce – to bring more opportunity, competition and good paying jobs to our state,” said Illinois Department of Commerce and Economic Opportunity Director Sean McCarthy. “We need to couple that with lasting reforms and incentives to attract businesses and quality jobs in Illinois.”

In August, the three industry sectors with the largest gains in employment were: Trade, Transportation and Utilities (+6,600); Education and Health Services (+3,400); and Construction (+2,000). The largest payroll declines were in the following sectors: Leisure and Hospitality (-9,900); Professional and Business Services (-3,300); and Manufacturing (-3,000).

Over-the-year, nonfarm payroll employment increased by +23,600 jobs with the largest gains in these industry sectors in August: Professional and Business Services (+15,300); Financial Activities (+9,100); and Education and Health Services (+9,000). Industry sectors with the largest over-the-year declines include: Trade, Transportation and Utilities (-5,800); Government (-3,100); and Construction (-3,000). The +0.4 percent over-the-year gain in Illinois is about one-fourth as strong as the +1.4 percent gain posted by the nation in August.

The state’s unemployment rate is +0.6 percentage points higher than the national unemployment rate reported for August 2017, which increased to 4.4 percent. The Illinois unemployment rate is down -0.8 percentage points from a year ago when it was 5.8 percent. At 5.0 percent, the Illinois jobless rate stands -0.7 percentage points lower than January 2017.

The number of unemployed workers increased +4.8 percent from the prior month to 323,100, down -14.2 percent over the same month for the prior year. This was the third consecutive over-the-month gain in the number of unemployed persons. The labor force decreased -0.4 percent over-the-month and declined by -1.4 percent in August over the prior year. The unemployment rate identifies those individuals who are out of work and are seeking employment. An individual who exhausts or is ineligible for benefits is still reflected in the unemployment rate if they actively seek work.

* Despite the fact that construction is one of the bright spots, a capital bill would still help

IS THERE A CAPITAL BILL IN THE WORKS? Rauner: “I can say, I certainly hope so. I’ve advocated for a capital bill … since day one in office … I’ve encouraged conversations to occur. I believe conversations are occurring.”

What sources tell us: The legislative leaders’ discussion involved talk of a possible $3 billion to $5 billion capital bill that would involve a public-private partnership. We’re still unclear on the funding as parties are denying a gas tax would become part of it. And sources were jittery about whether this thing would even get off the ground.

Subscribers know more.

*** UPDATE ***  This is really weird. Either Natasha and I and others are being told something wrong, or, well, I dunno, but I still believe there’s a plan and there’s been no denial yet of that…

- Posted by Rich Miller        

  1. - Fax Machine - Wednesday, Sep 20, 17 @ 10:00 am:

    Isn’t there supposed to be money in a lockbox now for these projects after the amendment passed?

  2. - Rich Miller - Wednesday, Sep 20, 17 @ 10:11 am:

    ===money in a lockbox===

    There’s a lockbox, but it has very little money.

  3. - wordslinger - Wednesday, Sep 20, 17 @ 10:22 am:

    A steep August decline in leisure and hospitality (-9,900) is standard as vacations wrap up and students head back to college.

    Remove that category and August is +6,200 non-farm.

  4. - Arsenal - Wednesday, Sep 20, 17 @ 10:23 am:

    This is the kind of thing that matters more to Rauner’s re-election chances than the gaffes and staff shake-ups and legislative losses of the summer. He’s just not delivering for the state.

  5. - Lucky Pierre - Wednesday, Sep 20, 17 @ 10:24 am:

    I guess just raising taxes and not reforming our business or political environment does not qualify as economic development.

  6. - Annonin' - Wednesday, Sep 20, 17 @ 10:35 am:

    Good ole Jeffie. Always quick to rush to the negative. That sure seems like a way to push everything. Most nation data suggested unemployment #s drifting up because more are returning to the labor force. IL data does not help discern whether that is in play.
    GovJunk is for a construction bill as long as he can use scab labor for the work. When some of that happened in the Peoria area for an airport and hospital project the repair costs were staggering.

  7. - lake county democrat - Wednesday, Sep 20, 17 @ 10:39 am:

    People can carp about Rauner all they want - and much of it is deserved - but the forces dragging the state economy are bigger than anything that has happened the last two years. With no progressive income tax and the immense pension burden, the state is handcuffed to make the kind of investments you need to build on its assets (as McCarthy says, location and people). There’s also a looming brain drain - I hope Chicago gets Amazon but I hope even more that Milwaukee or St. Louis doesn’t get it: a terrible thing for Chicago would be another attractive midwest city (especially Milwaukee given its proximity).

  8. - Century Club - Wednesday, Sep 20, 17 @ 10:41 am:

    It’s been puzzling to me that none of the Democratic candidates for Governor have come out with a really strong jobs message. I mean, Biss is a sitting Senator - he can introduce a jobs bill at any moment. For that matter, Pawar could too, or Stratton on behalf of JB.

    Not only does it seem like it would appeal strongly to core constituencies in the Democratic primary, but without it, you’re basically ceding this argument to Rauner’s (laughable) reforms = jobs message.

  9. - sulla - Wednesday, Sep 20, 17 @ 10:43 am:

    “Most nation data suggested unemployment #s drifting up because more are returning to the labor force. IL data does not help discern whether that is in play.”

    Illinois’ Labor Force is at a ten-year low as of this month.

    Source: LAU data series, statewide, seasonally-adjusted.

  10. - Ron - Wednesday, Sep 20, 17 @ 10:57 am:

    “There’s also a looming brain drain”

    Not in Chicago. According to the latest Census estimates, the City now has the highest % of 4 year college educated of the top 5 largest cities.

  11. - Ron - Wednesday, Sep 20, 17 @ 10:58 am:

    What exactly is a “jobs” bill? Workers Comp reform will help reduce costs for employers, eliminating the corporate tax in IL would encourage employers to locate in IL.

  12. - Century Club - Wednesday, Sep 20, 17 @ 11:11 am:

    Well, Ron, since 2/3rds of Illinois corporations don’t pay income tax, you’re most of the way there.

    A jobs bill could be a capital plan, a summer jobs program, or anything else along those lines. Even a plan to recoup the jobs lost as a direct result of the budget stalemate would be great.

  13. - Lucky Pierre - Wednesday, Sep 20, 17 @ 11:12 am:

    Alderman Pawar has publicly stated that Chicago and Illinois should offer zero tax incentives for Amazon HQ 2 because of his mistaken belief that it is the public sector that drives the economy and the private sector and “greedy” millionaires and billionaires are hurting Illinois residents.

    He has little regard for the spending and tax revenue 50,000 good jobs would do for Illinois economy and budget deficits.

  14. - Ron - Wednesday, Sep 20, 17 @ 11:25 am:

    Ah, so you simply want government spending. Not a good plan for long run job growth.

  15. - Ron - Wednesday, Sep 20, 17 @ 11:26 am:

    Why not make it 100% of IL corporations paying no tax? Just tax the employees.

  16. - Lucky Pierre - Wednesday, Sep 20, 17 @ 11:35 am:

    There’s a good reason why most Illinois companies don’t pay state income taxes: They don’t owe federal income taxes, either.

    About two-thirds of Illinois companies don’t pay state income taxes, yet the idea of closing loopholes to address that gap ignores the reality that 95 percent of those companies had zero or negative taxable income at the federal level, according to the Illinois Chamber of Commerce and the Taxpayers’ Federation of Illinois.

    These corporations do pay one of the highest property tax burdens in America

  17. - Roman - Wednesday, Sep 20, 17 @ 11:41 am:

    == Is there a capital bill in the works? ==

    Even if it’s a Public-Private Partnership (subscribers know more,) any capital bill will require a some sort of new tax. Having just raised income taxes this summer and with the Cook County beverage tax dominating headlines in the Chicago media market, I don’t see how the legislature will support a new tax this fall or next spring ahead of an election.

  18. - Ron - Wednesday, Sep 20, 17 @ 1:26 pm:

    “These corporations do pay one of the highest property tax burdens in America”.


  19. - Northsider - Wednesday, Sep 20, 17 @ 1:34 pm:

    Pawar can’t introduce a jobs bill, Century Club; he’s not in the legislature.

  20. - Ron - Wednesday, Sep 20, 17 @ 2:09 pm:

    A summer jobs program? That is hardly a long term solution to IL job growth problems. That is a crime prevention program.

  21. - City Zen - Wednesday, Sep 20, 17 @ 2:27 pm:

    ==A steep August decline in leisure and hospitality (-9,900) is standard as vacations wrap up and students head back to college.==

    Not really. Past years have not seen such a decline:

    It looks like IL had an unprecedented run up this summer though. What was the reason for those gains?

  22. - wordslinger - Wednesday, Sep 20, 17 @ 2:39 pm:

    LP, your comments about Pawar are schizo. Tax incentives to attract private business is the definition of the public sector driving the economy.

    It’s also centralized planning, the state picking winners and losers. You’d call it socialism if taxpayers got an equity stake (which is a better deal on a public investment).

    As it is, if there’s an Amazon deal with EDGE credits, the state won’t see any new income tax revenue. It will be deducted from employee salaries and remitted to Amazon’s bottom line.

    There are opponents to that kind of giveaway across the political spectrum.

  23. - wordslinger - Wednesday, Sep 20, 17 @ 2:41 pm:

    CZ, more seasonal tourists, more seasonal hospitality workers.

  24. - Whatever - Wednesday, Sep 20, 17 @ 3:29 pm:

    ==As it is, if there’s an Amazon deal with EDGE credits, the state won’t see any new income tax revenue. It will be deducted from employee salaries and remitted to Amazon’s bottom line.==

    HB 162 took that part of the EDGE credit away for agreements entered into after 2014.

  25. - City Zen - Wednesday, Sep 20, 17 @ 3:32 pm:

    Word - In the link in my last post, look at the large increase this past summer. We’ve never had such a growth surge in the past. Plus growth post-summer typically continues upward. Why more “seasonal” workers this summer than ever before? Just seems odd, that’s all.

  26. - In a Minute - Wednesday, Sep 20, 17 @ 4:14 pm:

    A state’s economic well being cannot and should not be based on public works projects. SMH in dismay
    Sustained economic growth comes from the private sector. Illinois political class does not view the private sector as having any value except to provide the tax revenues to sustain a really bad governmental system.

  27. - wordslinger - Wednesday, Sep 20, 17 @ 5:31 pm:

    –A state’s economic well being cannot and should not be based on public works projects. SMH in dismay
    Sustained economic growth comes from the private sector.–

    And how does the private sector function without sustained public infrastructure investment, Dr. Friedman? Mule teams?

Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.

* Reader comments closed for the weekend
* Illinois rated second most likely governor's office to flip parties
* It's just a bill
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - A couple of new mailers and a fundraising list
* Question of the day
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - ICPR responds again
* Rauner says "left-leaning" Chicago press is "plenty biased"
* Keep your trackers out of taverns
* "If any region should feel alienated from state government, it's the suburbanites"
* Democratic legislator files resolution condemning "scofflaw counties"
* Rauner ad gets it wrong, but Pritzker needs to end his silence
* Just a small critique
* Are the Democrats unified?
* Buttigieg delivered the best zinger of the day
* White vows to finish out sixth term
* Rauner to return to Quincy Veterans Home this weekend
* Yesterday's stories

Visit our advertisers...






* Angie Muhs: SJ-R to host candidate debates in c.....
* Statehouse Insider: It's time for the campa.....
* Speak Out: Reader wants neighbors to clean up b.....
* McDermott: Amateur hour in Illinois..
* Miller: Mailers can be misleading..
* Rauner signs bill to educate students about loans..
* Gov. Rauner Signs Series of Public Safety Bills.....
* Sham candidates are an affront to democracy. He.....
* Governor signs Sen. Chuck Weaver's bill on .....
* Gov. Rauner names August 17 as Traffic Fatality.....

* Rediscovered bulldog mascot gets artist-custodian’s touch
* NW Indiana boy, 8, saves his brother, 2, from dog attack
* Carbondale considers biodegradable ‘natural’ burials
* Rockford officials christen $16M school in Cherry Valley
* Study: Most Illinois kindergarteners weren’t ready in 2017
* Illinois hunters will soon be allowed to wear pink; penalties increased for deer poaching
* Iowa river traffic relies on aging lock and dam system
* New 5-day bike ride to feature Illinois farms, vineyards
* Springfield agrees to pay half of factory-site cleanup
* Trump tabs Springfield-based prosecutor for US attorney

* Penalty for first-time distracted-driving ticket to increase
* Judge in Aaron Schock case removed from all cases involving federal government
* Rauner signs bill to educate students about loans
* Doris Kearns Goodwin coming to Springfield for fundraiser
* Davis staffer arrested after altercation at Londrigan fundraiser
* Illinois Democrats say downstate counties can go their way
* Rauner appoints GOP official Shaw to retirement board
* Illinois Democrats talk of importance of fall elections
* AP fact check: No Pritzker plan to increase taxes 26 percent
* Rauner: 2018 election is 'one of most important' in Illinois history

* DuPage pushes fight for O'Hare western terminal
* United sheds punching-bag status with biggest U.S. airline rally
* Northern Trust looks to get into crypto custody
* Redbox gears up for its first major ad campaign
* Whither the Kraft Heinz ketchup packet?

* 3 shot on Near North Side
* Man missing from Albany Park may need medical attention
* ‘Hidden gems’ of South, West sides served up at Taste of Black Chicago
* Utah man continues hunting after mountain lion stalks, attacks him
* It’s the Indians’ turn to honor Jim Thome and retire his number
* Trio of boys steal vehicle, hospitalized after crashing three times on West Side
* Community in disbelief after Crane basketball player’s suicide in police chase
* Don’s Snack Attack aims to provide a ‘little bit of lightness’ at the courthouse
* High School Football Preview: Chicago’s top 10 receivers

* ICE agents detain man who was driving his pregnant wife to hospital to give birth
* In a party dominated by Trumpism, growing ranks of forgotten Republicans sound warning
* MMA fighter accused of driving under influence of drugs in crash that killed father of 4
* Hitting refresh button may be Chris Sale's key to winning 1st Cy Young Award — once he returns from DL
* Trump's power plant plan could release hundreds of millions of tons of CO2 into air
* Ready or not, Bills are that much closer to Josh Allen time after AJ McCarron injury
* Federal report confirms children living at East Chicago Superfund site had high lead levels, negating 2011 study
* Boy, 13, charged following shooting at baskbetball tournament at Garfield Park fieldhouse
* Kofi Annan, former head of the U.N., dies at age 80
* Avisail Garcia returns to White Sox lineup against Royals

» New Law To Address Police Officers' Mental Health
» Chicago Musicians Remember Queen Of Soul Aretha Franklin
» Deep Fried Politics
» State Week: Both Democrats and Republicans Assert Party Unity At State Fair
» Web Extra, The Week in Review: Editorial Boards Push Back
» The Week in Review: Campaign Season ‘Officially’ Kicks Off at State Fair
» #664 Remembering Aretha Franklin
» Dems Vow Down-Ballot Effort, Red-State Reach
» Aug. 16, 2018 - Full Show
» Live From The State Fair: Ag, Food, Entertainment, And President Lincoln

* Penalty for first-time distracted-driving ticket to increase
* Statehouse Insider: It's time for the campaign season to begin. Again.
* Our View: Kindergarten study a good starting point
* BGA: How an ordinary homeowner forced reform upon an Illinois township government
* Angie Muhs: SJ-R to host candidate debates in congressional races
* Bernard Schoenburg: Ag policy forum featured only Republicans
* Judge in Aaron Schock case removed from all cases involving federal government
* Rauner signs bill to educate students about loans
* Doris Kearns Goodwin coming to Springfield for fundraiser
* Counterpoint: It's another Trump idea that belongs on a Hollywood launch pad

* Highland lays to rest its leader, police chief, and public safety director
* Smith sees positives in scrimmage
* Vigil will mark 22nd anniversary of Trudy Appleby's disappearance
* Boil order lifted in Johnston City
* Carbondale Church of Christ, Gaia House to give away household items
* Woman with no vision in right eye attacked on MetroLink platform
* Q-C kids enjoy Discovery Fair
* Cayuga man arrested after stabbing
* Chris Gregory writes software for a new Animation Station at The Science Center
* 5 Questions with ... Melverta Wilkins, Caterpillar product change engineer and founder of Sista Girls and Friends

* South Elgin asking residents to speak up if they have complaints about MetroNet
* Summer Celebration held at the Shrine of Our Lady of Guadalupe in Des Plaines
* How Naperville college helps students become 'changemakers'
* Schaumburg man hailed for saving life of South Barrington woman
* Omarosa exaggerated Chicago's weekend murder tally

* Valerie review at Summerhall, Edinburgh – ...
* Illinois congressman's staffer arreste...
* Bernard Schoenburg: Ag policy forum featur...
* Illinois congressman's staffer arreste...
* $40 million expansion at IHI announced
* Randy Hultgren Hosts Several Town H...
* Will Trump's GOP give candidates room ...
* Despite year-of-the-woman buzz, female can...
* Campaign field director of GOP lawmaker ar...
* Angie Muhs: SJ-R to host candidate debates...

* Trump tabs Springfield-based prosecutor fo......
* Ami Investment Management Boosted Graham H......
* Rlj Lodging Tr (RLJ) Holder Land & Bui......
* Koch Industries Increased Its United Techn......
* Zacks Investment Management Has Upped Stak......

* Of the 4 female veterans in Congress, 2 ar......
* Can Tahirah Amatul-Wadud Become the Next P......
* Senate passes resolution defending press a......
* Just a small critique...
* Millhiser gets nod from Trump to be next U......

* Keep 'Em Down On The Farm
* The Week In Chicago Rock
* Kusanya clean-up day August 19, 2018
* Short-term ‘retirement’ post turns out to be a long-term one for Jesse White
* Univesity transfer students are now sought out...
* What if A.I. is coming for jobs faster than we thought?
* LMS market after Blackboard-Moodle breakup
* Building Tomorrow’s Talent: Collaboration Can Close Emerging Skills Gap
* Colleges and Universities Woo Once-Overlooked Transfer Students
* 10 Ways That Edtech Has Transformed Libraries

* Bicentennial announces plans for Aug. 26th Constitution Day
* Gov. Rauner proclaims Traffic Fatality Awareness Day, urges public's help in making Illinois roads safer
* Illinois Department of Human Rights Honors "Dream Builders"
* Gov. Rauner signs public safety legislation
* Illinois Payrolls Up for Sixth Straight Month

* Get over $4,300 worth of CompTIA certification training for only $59
* iPhone X + Huawei P20 = Motorola P30 | #PNWeekly 318
* Understanding color accuracy in mobile devices (Part 3 of 3)
* Honor Play in for review
* Netflix cancels its talk shows starring Michelle Wolf and Joel McHale
* We asked, you told us: Your favourite Galaxy Note 9 feature starts with a ‘4’
* Google rolls back Android Messages to old design and removes dark mode

* Moncada remains confident despite struggles
* Game CXIII: Royals at White Sox
* Daniel Palka fills the designated hitter role on Saturday for Wh...
* White Sox's Avisail Garcia: In lineup Saturday
* White Sox's Leury Garcia: Still on bench Saturday
* Avisail Garcia returns to White Sox lineup against Royals
* Under the Radar: Amado Nuñez

Main Menu
Pundit rankings
Subscriber Content
Blagojevich Trial
Updated Posts

August 2018
July 2018
June 2018
May 2018
April 2018
March 2018
February 2018
January 2018
December 2017
November 2017
October 2017
September 2017
August 2017
July 2017
June 2017
May 2017
April 2017
March 2017
February 2017
January 2017
December 2016
November 2016
October 2016
September 2016
August 2016
July 2016
June 2016
May 2016
April 2016
March 2016
February 2016
January 2016
December 2015
November 2015
October 2015
September 2015
August 2015
July 2015
June 2015
May 2015
April 2015
March 2015
February 2015
January 2015
December 2014
November 2014
October 2014
September 2014
August 2014
July 2014
June 2014
May 2014
April 2014
March 2014
February 2014
January 2014
December 2013
November 2013
October 2013
September 2013
August 2013
July 2013
June 2013
May 2013
April 2013
March 2013
February 2013
January 2013
December 2012
November 2012
October 2012
September 2012
August 2012
July 2012
June 2012
May 2012
April 2012
March 2012
February 2012
January 2012
December 2011
November 2011
October 2011
September 2011
August 2011
July 2011
June 2011
May 2011
April 2011
March 2011
February 2011
January 2011
December 2010
November 2010
October 2010
September 2010
August 2010
July 2010
June 2010
May 2010
April 2010
March 2010
February 2010
January 2010
December 2009
November 2009
October 2009
September 2009
August 2009
July 2009
June 2009
May 2009
April 2009
March 2009
February 2009
January 2009
December 2008
November 2008
October 2008
September 2008
August 2008
July 2008
June 2008
May 2008
April 2008
March 2008
February 2008
January 2008
December 2007
November 2007
October 2007
September 2007
August 2007
July 2007
June 2007
May 2007
April 2007
March 2007
February 2007
January 2007
December 2006
November 2006
October 2006
September 2006
August 2006
July 2006
June 2006
May 2006
April 2006
March 2006
February 2006
January 2006
December 2005
April 2005
March 2005
February 2005
January 2005
December 2004
November 2004
October 2004

Blog*Spot Archives
November 2005
October 2005
September 2005
August 2005
July 2005
June 2005
May 2005


RSS Feed 2.0
Comments RSS 2.0

Hosted by MCS SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax Advertise Here Mobile Version Contact Rich Miller