Capitol Fax.com - Your Illinois News Radar » *** UPDATED x1 *** Illinois truly needs a boost
SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      About     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact Rich Miller
CapitolFax.com
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
*** UPDATED x1 *** Illinois truly needs a boost

Tuesday, Oct 3, 2017 - Posted by Rich Miller

* People need to start paying more attention to this…



* Whatever growth there is hasn’t been nearly enough…



*** UPDATE *** From Rep. Mike Fortner…

Hi Rich,

 I don’t know if you saw this yesterday, but the Census Bureau released their 2016 estimates for population and other demographics by congressional district. As we are expected to lose a district after 2020, this gives a clue as to where the losses have been greatest so far this decade. I’ve converted the raw population estimates into percentages that each congressional district is short of the national average.

    IL-01 -7%
    IL-02 -4%
    IL-03 -3%
    IL-04 -6%
    IL-05 -2%
    IL-06 -3%
    IL-07 -2%
    IL-08 -3%
    IL-09 -2%
    IL-10 -4%
    IL-11 -1%
    IL-12 -1%
    IL-13 -5%
    IL-14 -1%
    IL-15 -5%
    IL-16 -7%
    IL-17 -7%
    IL-18 -4%

If population trends continue this way through 2020, then IL-01, 04, 12, 16, and 17 will all be at least 10% below the national average by the time of the census. That roughly suggests the amount of population those districts would have to add to comply with the next round of redistricting.

       

42 Comments
  1. - Anon221 - Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 10:36 am:

    Two and a half years of Rauner provin’ he can’t be “bullied” didn’t help. And, yes, it was more like his famous “dog years”.


  2. - VanillaMan - Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 10:41 am:

    The quickest boost will be getting rid of the anchor weighing us down, sitting in the state’s most important office.


  3. - dlapine - Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 10:42 am:

    Can any of that not be attributed to the lack of a state budget? People notice that, and intelligent new job seekers pay pretty close attention to something like that. Let’s see if that growth improves in the next year or 2 now that we have a budget.


  4. - TinyDancer(FKASue) - Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 10:43 am:

    Chalk one up for the Civic Committee of the Commercial Club of Chicago and their “Illinois is Broke” campaign.


  5. - Perrid - Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 10:44 am:

    I doubt you could attribute ALL of the to the budget impasse, but it certainly did nothing to help.


  6. - JS Mill - Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 10:51 am:

    There is that pesky Minnesota again. I wonder what happened there besides paying their bills?/s


  7. - Ed - Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 10:51 am:

    I think there is a mistake. Did you mean the IL-01, 04, 13, 16, and 17? I think you put the Illinois 12th by mistake.


  8. - annonin' - Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 10:58 am:

    love all the negatives
    News Flash that same Census Bureau reports median salary in IL nearly $61K….surrounding states not close.
    So GovJunk has not wrecked everything


  9. - Sgt. Slaughter - Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 11:00 am:

    We need more people and jobs for sure. But, the one thing we CANNOT do is loosen up regs on the coal/oil/nat gas industries. Yeah, we have a lifetime of reserves, and the potential to lead the country in energy production and good paying jobs, but there are some people and jobs that we just don’t want. /s


  10. - Galena Guy - Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 11:00 am:

    Would be intwresting to see the age demographics of the folks who are coming and going. Might give a more complete understanding of what’s going on.


  11. - Sue - Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 11:04 am:

    Yea it’s Rauners fault. Just give us another tax increase and cave in to AFSCME and everything will be fine


  12. - Grandson of Man - Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 11:18 am:

    “Yea it’s Rauners fault. Just give us another tax increase and cave in to AFSCME and everything will be fine”

    No, Rauner has nothing to do with the last two and a half years. Everything is everybody else’s fault. There’s no personal responsibility from the folks who look for logs in their opponents’ eyes but don’t see them in their own.

    Rauner could have saved the state money by negotiating health insurance costs with state employees, but here we are, tied up in courts over the contract impasse, with tons of ill will and no savings for taxpayers on employee healthcare costs. Not smart or conservative.

    And yes, Minnesota blows away any rationale that we have to go full right wing to improve our economy.


  13. - wordslinger - Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 11:28 am:

    Probably hasn’t been good for the economy to spend nearly three years without a capital plan, gutting higher ed and piling on $10B in unpaid bills to Illinois vendors.

    Might be helpful for the state to focus on fulfilling its core functions, rather than deliberately sabotaging them.


  14. - Ghost - Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 11:29 am:

    MI union town 2nd largest growth. MN high taxes and 15hr min wage greatest growth.

    Basically everything the GOP is fighting has created the largest growth in our neighbors


  15. - City Zen - Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 11:32 am:

    ==Minnesota blows away any rationale that we have to go full right wing to improve our economy.==

    Minnesota taxes retirement income.

    And while Minnesota has been adding jobs, they are not in the preferred “gross value add” or high GDP sectors like Finance, Information Services, and Mining, which are losing jobs. So high bars don’t tell the entire story.

    IPI’s stats are the most concerning. If the people leaving Illinois not only outnumber those arriving but also make more, we are in for a world of hurt.


  16. - Arsenal - Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 11:57 am:

    I’ve said this again in some similar threads, but this, more so than gaffes and staff drama, moreso than HB40, is what really imperils Rauner’s re-election. He’s just not delivered for anyone.


  17. - Grandson of Man - Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 11:59 am:

    “So high bars don’t tell the entire story.”

    You’re right, lest we forget—much higher incomes, full union rights and high union membership, which means higher pay in the vast majority of industries and occupations, nationwide.


  18. - Sue - Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 12:02 pm:

    Illinois’ downward trajectory predates Rauner by a couple of Governors as did the loss of congressional districts buts let’s blsme Rauner anyway


  19. - Moody's Blues - Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 12:06 pm:

    Ghost, help me understand your “MI union town 2nd largest growth.” All six states bordering Illinois now are right-to-work, Michigan included. (Yes, Michigan borders Illinois, in Lake Michigan, just as Illinois borders three other states in river waters). The graph only measures a one-year nightmare for Illinois, but does right-to-work explain the leakage of employers and jobs across our state lines?

    Also, we’ve gone from 27 U.S. House seats to 18 and the drop to 17 is assured. Late last year, number-crunchers at RealClearPolitics reported that “Illinois is close to losing a second seat” after the 2020 census.

    Lose one or lose two, this endless decline in congressional clout is miserable for Illinois.


  20. - anon2 - Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 12:07 pm:

    Of the five districts losing the most population, four are mainly downstate. Only CD 4 is completely in the Chicago area.


  21. - Lucky Lou - Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 12:17 pm:

    As soon as all those low down do nothing conservatives leave the state everything will be okay. Everyone else needs to line up behind Madigan and his many minions so that this wonderful, all knowing benevolent man can lead us out of the desert. We need to embrace the opportunity to increase taxes across the state so that all the neglected infrastructure can be addressed. We will also need to increase taxes further to address the ever growing pension shortfall. Fear not my fellow citizen, as these great public servants deserve a much better retirement than you could ever hope for yourself or your children.

    The State of Illinois is destined for great things. As soon as we can figure out how to increase our taxes while remaining on the government dole, we are all set.


  22. - @MisterJayEm - Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 12:22 pm:

    “Illinois’ downward trajectory predates Rauner by a couple of Governors as did the loss of congressional districts buts let’s blsme Rauner anyway”

    From the Chicago Tribune: “Illinois’ population first began to drop in 2014, when the state lost 11,961 people. That number more than doubled in 2015, with a loss of 28,497 people, and further multiplied in 2016.” (emphasis added)
    http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/local/breaking/ct-illinois-population-decline-met-20161220-story.html

    – MrJM


  23. - Grandson of Man - Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 12:24 pm:

    “let’s blsme Rauner anyway”

    Poor Rauner, he’s a victim of the last 2 1/2 years, with no budgets, massive cuts to higher ed, debt skyrocketing, slow job growth, people leaving the state, social services decimated.

    Sorry for assigning personal responsibility to him. That belongs to those who are poor and need social services but shouldn’t get them because of bad life choices.


  24. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 12:25 pm:

    ===As soon as all those low down do nothing conservatives===

    Rauner is not, by any measure, a social or fiscal conservative.

    ===Everyone else===

    Oh boy,

    ===needs to line up behind Madigan and his many minions===

    Take a breath, you’re hyper-ventilating. I say this as Rauner is allegedly losing Republicans by the trash can van full, and your concern is Madugan?

    ===We need to embrace the opportunity to increase taxes across the state so that all the neglected infrastructure can be addressed.===

    When construction materials and labor to do the work starts taking pixie dust instead of money, or bonds are let for the financial equivalency of a pile of Hostess Twinkees, then this will make sense.

    ===We will also need to increase taxes further to address the ever growing pension shortfall.===

    The ILSC made clear pensions are to be paid, so again, pixie dust or a huge pile of Hostess Twinkies won’t suffice.

    ===Fear not my fellow citizen, as these great public servants deserve a much better retirement than you could ever hope for yourself or your children.===

    Jealousy isn’t becoming. You could’ve worked for the state or taken a job with a public pension. You chose not to.


  25. - LL - Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 12:41 pm:

    Tongue in cheek escapes some of the less intelligent I guess. And just for you, a special heartfelt lol.


  26. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 12:45 pm:

    I’m guessing “LL” is - Lucky Lou -

    Yeah, your noted and well known snarky comments and tone should go without saying.

    lol

    What’s next, guess what you’re thinking you want for Supper?

    (That is snark)


  27. - Honeybear - Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 12:55 pm:

    Thank you Sue and Lucky Lou for proving my point about state worker disparagement. Word was right that you wouldn’t comment on the post yesterday but would be back today.

    Anyway, let’s have an economic lesson.
    Velocity of money
    Basically how quickly money is plowed back into the economy.
    More important than outflow of people is
    The 16 billion denied our own contractors
    (Although good news! My kids orthodontist finally got paid by my state insurance for the braces invoice almost 3 years ago. Yea! No more collection calls trying to recover the states portion! )
    Anyway, that’s 16 billion or 10 with the bonds that isn’t getting plowed back
    Add no Capital plan for two years
    Add the destruction of private social services ( mom and pop)
    Add the destruction of higher Ed

    Your basically severely restricting the velocity of money
    Which in turn creates
    Illinois flight
    Which creates IPI, Tronc headlines
    Which creates the crisis Rauner wants to exploit
    Increase velocity of money
    Like Minnesota
    We’d be in a lot better shape


  28. - Louis IV - Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 1:08 pm:

    ===well known===

    And I didn’t think you noticed. That means a lot.

    In all seriousness, just think of all the time spent here over the years. Isn’t there something else you could gave done. The incessant blathering, not to mention your own special brand of snark. You’re better than that OW. Aim higher.


  29. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 1:16 pm:

    - Lucky Lou -, - LL -, - Louis IV -

    Your multiple personalities aside,

    Your concern for me and my aim is noted.

    If you could aim at one nickname that might hit the target better than the snark(?)

    To the Post,

    There is a difference between stagnant population and actually losing population, but when Congressional Districts’ populations rise, meaning 435 seats should be 1 million people (for argument’s sake and round figures) and the next census means 435 seats should be 1.1 million, a stagnant or population loss is amplified as to keeping seats when the population(s) in districts are increasing no matter what.


  30. - State Rep Mike Fortner - Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 1:27 pm:

    anon2@12:07 - IL-01 is mostly in Chicago and Cook with a minority in Will, and it’s farther behind than IL-04. That puts two of the five firmly in Chicagoland. One can even make the case that IL-16 is in between Chicagoland and Downstate since much of its population is in the Ring Around the Collars.


  31. - ChrisB - Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 2:39 pm:

    I suppose the commenters here would blame Gov. Rauner for losing a seat in the 2010 census, too.


  32. - cover - Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 2:44 pm:

    = One can even make the case that IL-16 is in between Chicagoland and Downstate since much of its population is in the Ring Around the Collars. =

    Is that the district that the next map will apply Wisk detergent to?


  33. - wordslinger - Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 3:59 pm:

    –I suppose the commenters here would blame Gov. Rauner for losing a seat in the 2010 census, too.–

    Illinois population grew by 3.3% or 440,100 between the 2000 and 2010 censuses.

    You could probably attribute most of that to immigration. That’s usually how it works in wealthy, mature economies with negative replacement growth. See Europe and Japan.

    If you’re confused about how Congressional representation works, it’s share of population, not growth of population.


  34. - City Zen - Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 4:47 pm:

    ==Illinois population grew by 3.3% or 440,100 between the 2000 and 2010 censuses.==

    USA population increased 9.7% over that same time period.


  35. - wordslinger - Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 5:17 pm:

    ==Illinois population grew by 3.3% or 440,100 between the 2000 and 2010 censuses.==

    USA population increased 9.7% over that same time period.–

    So what?

    Did you expect that Illinois growth rate would be close to that of Texas, Florida, Arizona, California?

    How and/or why?

    Immigration from Mexico, birth rates, air conditioning, interstate highways, jet engines, water and power projects — you think they might trump that pop tax as influencers?


  36. - Arizona Bob - Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 6:42 pm:

    @wordslinger

    ==Illinois population grew by 3.3% or 440,100 between the 2000 and 2010 censuses.==
    USA population increased 9.7% over that same time period.–
    So what?
    Did you expect that Illinois growth rate would be close to that of Texas, Florida, Arizona, California?
    How and/or why?==

    The how is changing the corrupt “people exist to serve the government” culture that has run Illinois into the ground. The whole system from capital to education is set up to benefit the public worker and contractors FAR above that in the private sector, and the political support and money that brings to the pols. It’s very successful in that. The problem is that when you have government that time and again devastates industries (gas taxes, soda and sales taxes, increasing income taxes and Blago’s trucking fees that killed the industry in Illinois are some examples) businesses know that Illinois governments will do whatever is necessary to maintain their patronage base, and there are better places to go where business is considered more than a temporary revenue source. NO business, no jobs. No jobs, no workers. NO workers, no market for business creating a cycle. Pretty simple, but no elected official cares to break it…


  37. - wordslinger - Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 7:34 pm:

    –NO business, no jobs. No jobs, no workers. NO workers, no market for business creating a cycle. Pretty simple, but no elected official cares to break it…–

    Yeah, just like that.

    Well, Bob,it is sad that Illinois lost a remarkable renaissance man like yourself, what with your building nuke plants, roads and bridges, teaching at high schools and universities, running GOP candidates on the South Side and so much more back in your day.

    You remember saying all that stuff?

    You should put it all in a book before you forget.


  38. - Anonymous - Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 8:01 pm:

    Illinois is economic disaster. without Chicago the state would be like Mississippi


  39. - Anonymous - Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 8:59 pm:

    Minnesota has a strong history of high quality public services and a state government largely free of corruption. And Illinois? Let the laughter commence.


  40. - Anonymous - Tuesday, Oct 3, 17 @ 9:30 pm:

    The IMA has been talking about the manufacturing jobs numbers for more than a year. Illinois trails the Midwest in manufacturing job growth - every other state has grown and Illinois has lost jobs since the recession ended.
    Z


  41. - Sue - Wednesday, Oct 4, 17 @ 2:17 am:

    Word- you must have been a great math student- if the other jurisdictions have a faster growth rate then Illinois- their “share” of the population for congressional districts will be bigger thus Illinois will lose seats


  42. - Arizona Bob - Wednesday, Oct 4, 17 @ 12:53 pm:

    @wordslinger
    Well, Bob,it is sad that Illinois lost a remarkable renaissance man like yourself, what with your building nuke plants, roads and bridges, teaching at high schools and universities, running GOP candidates on the South Side and so much more back in your day.
    You remember saying all that stuff? =

    I don’t just remember saying it, Word, I remember doing it. I don’t get involved in that much anymore. I’ve got late stage idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis and if I don’t get a lung transplant soon I’ll be taking a permanent dirt nap.


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


* Energy Storage Brings Cheaper Electricity, Greater Reliability
* Roundup: Testimony focuses on ex-aides loyalty to Madigan
* Uber’s Local Partnership = Stress-Free Travel For Paratransit Riders
* Some not-great state flag redesign contest feedback from WGN
* Question of the day: Golden Horseshoe Awards
* Pritzker: Gia Biagi signals a “new era” at IDOT
* Open thread
* Isabel’s morning briefing
* Live coverage
* Selected press releases (Live updates)
* Yesterday's stories

Support CapitolFax.com
Visit our advertisers...

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............


Loading


Main Menu
Home
Illinois
YouTube
Pundit rankings
Obama
Subscriber Content
Durbin
Burris
Blagojevich Trial
Advertising
Updated Posts
Polls

Archives
December 2024
November 2024
October 2024
September 2024
August 2024
July 2024
June 2024
May 2024
April 2024
March 2024
February 2024
January 2024
December 2023
November 2023
October 2023
September 2023
August 2023
July 2023
June 2023
May 2023
April 2023
March 2023
February 2023
January 2023
December 2022
November 2022
October 2022
September 2022
August 2022
July 2022
June 2022
May 2022
April 2022
March 2022
February 2022
January 2022
December 2021
November 2021
October 2021
September 2021
August 2021
July 2021
June 2021
May 2021
April 2021
March 2021
February 2021
January 2021
December 2020
November 2020
October 2020
September 2020
August 2020
July 2020
June 2020
May 2020
April 2020
March 2020
February 2020
January 2020
December 2019
November 2019
October 2019
September 2019
August 2019
July 2019
June 2019
May 2019
April 2019
March 2019
February 2019
January 2019
December 2018
November 2018
October 2018
September 2018
August 2018
July 2018
June 2018
May 2018
April 2018
March 2018
February 2018
January 2018
December 2017
November 2017
October 2017
September 2017
August 2017
July 2017
June 2017
May 2017
April 2017
March 2017
February 2017
January 2017
December 2016
November 2016
October 2016
September 2016
August 2016
July 2016
June 2016
May 2016
April 2016
March 2016
February 2016
January 2016
December 2015
November 2015
October 2015
September 2015
August 2015
July 2015
June 2015
May 2015
April 2015
March 2015
February 2015
January 2015
December 2014
November 2014
October 2014
September 2014
August 2014
July 2014
June 2014
May 2014
April 2014
March 2014
February 2014
January 2014
December 2013
November 2013
October 2013
September 2013
August 2013
July 2013
June 2013
May 2013
April 2013
March 2013
February 2013
January 2013
December 2012
November 2012
October 2012
September 2012
August 2012
July 2012
June 2012
May 2012
April 2012
March 2012
February 2012
January 2012
December 2011
November 2011
October 2011
September 2011
August 2011
July 2011
June 2011
May 2011
April 2011
March 2011
February 2011
January 2011
December 2010
November 2010
October 2010
September 2010
August 2010
July 2010
June 2010
May 2010
April 2010
March 2010
February 2010
January 2010
December 2009
November 2009
October 2009
September 2009
August 2009
July 2009
June 2009
May 2009
April 2009
March 2009
February 2009
January 2009
December 2008
November 2008
October 2008
September 2008
August 2008
July 2008
June 2008
May 2008
April 2008
March 2008
February 2008
January 2008
December 2007
November 2007
October 2007
September 2007
August 2007
July 2007
June 2007
May 2007
April 2007
March 2007
February 2007
January 2007
December 2006
November 2006
October 2006
September 2006
August 2006
July 2006
June 2006
May 2006
April 2006
March 2006
February 2006
January 2006
December 2005
April 2005
March 2005
February 2005
January 2005
December 2004
November 2004
October 2004

Blog*Spot Archives
November 2005
October 2005
September 2005
August 2005
July 2005
June 2005
May 2005

Syndication

RSS Feed 2.0
Comments RSS 2.0




Hosted by MCS SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax Advertise Here Mobile Version Contact Rich Miller