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HB40 political earthquake continues to reverberate

Tuesday, Oct 10, 2017

* Rep. Jeanne Ives in The Federalist

Last April, Rauner publicly promised he would veto a bill that would force taxpayers to pay for abortions through all nine months of pregnancy. He lied. He signed the bill with a shrug of his shoulders, stating “I have always been pro-choice and I always will be.” […]

The cost of this law could approach $20 million. In a state with presumptive eligibility for pregnant women to receive Medicaid, there is also a real possibility that Illinois taxpayers will pay for abortions of women from surrounding states who falsely claim to be residents. The state has had enormous problems in the past with high numbers of ineligible folks on Medicaid.

In all this drama, the families of Illinois are forgotten and left to pick up the tab. Already on the hook for the highest property taxes in the nation, many families face unemployment as businesses bleed into more friendly states. Other families are trying to keep their heads above water, having seen needed social services reduced or eliminated over the past three years. So, as pundits and pols rant and rave in the papers and on social media, too many families quietly pack up and leave. Even those who are doing well look at state politics and wonder why they would entrust their family’s future to these “leaders.”

Here is what Illinois families should know: While the concentrated power in Springfield seems daunting, the people have the collective numbers, resources, and values to end Illinois’ rigged political culture. Illinoisans deserve bold leaders, and in 2018, they can pick those leaders willing to fight for them to own a home in a safe community, to have access to quality schools, to be able to count on basic services when they are in need, and to have the opportunity to build their lives and pursue happiness.

* As we’ve discussed before, here’s the fiscal impact note for HB40

The estimated annual cost for abortion services resulting from House Bill 40 is approximately $1.8 million, which would be 100% GRF funded. There may be other budgetary impacts that are not quantifiable.

So, what are those “other budgetary impacts”?

* Here’s the original fiscal impact note that was filed on an identical bill in 2015

The cost for the Department of Healthcare and Family Services would be $1.3 million.

But then a month later, DHFS filed a corrected note

There would be zero cost to the Department of Healthcare and Family Services; Offset savings were overlooked in the first note filed.

“Offset savings” appears to be a bureaucratic way of saying if there’s no birth, there are no further costs.

…Adding… HB40 opponents say Cook County currently pays for 5-6,000 abortions a year at the hospital. The state will now pick up that tab.

* Meanwhile

Some supporters of HB40 fear the harsh conservative backlash — a steady drumbeat of disapproval against Gov. Bruce Rauner’s signature on the bill expanding public funding of abortion in Illinois — has eclipsed any talk of what they view as a victory for low-income women.

“I feel like the conversation around this is all focused on politics instead of on the women,” Lori Chaiten, ACLU’s Director of the Reproductive Rights Project told POLITICO. “This was a huge step forward for women and communities in Illinois. It is getting drowned out by the negative statements and the politics in this state.”

Opponents will quickly point out that it wasn’t just Rauner’s signature that was the problem — it was that he had promised abortion opponents in his party that he would veto the bill. Rauner said he came to the decision after meeting with groups of women across the state who told him they didn’t have access to abortion because of finances.

“Unfortunately, I do believe we’ve become incredibly polarized, not just in Illinois but across the country,” Chaiten said. “I do think it’s really important to stop for a minute. I think this is what the governor did. He stopped and listened to the experiences of the women of this state and to women who needed access to health care. It was a brave and bold move on his part.”

* Politifact

Bruce Rauner said his signing of a controversial abortion bill was consistent with his pro-choice principles and that he had never presented himself as anything but pro-choice.

We looked through numerous campaign appearance videos, ads and news stories and found no evidence that Rauner ever tried to hide or downplay his pro-choice beliefs. In fact, his campaign touted the Rauners’ support of abortion rights groups to rebut the charge that he was not pro-choice.

Rauner sought anti-abortion voters by assuring them that, as governor, he had no social agenda and that “the right for a woman to choose is the national law and… that ain’t gonna change in Illinois.” Politically, it proved to be a smart strategy that helped gain him election in 2014. By 2017, however, it became impossible to continue finessing the issue.

In picking a side, Rauner declared that he has been consistent in declaring his pro-choice beliefs. We rate that statement True.

* Related…

* Kadner: Too busy spurning Rauner, GOP fails to make Dems pay for taxes: If Republicans have a difficult time uniting behind Rauner, I can’t see how they will run effective campaigns for countywide office or ever mount a serious challenge to Michael Madigan’s control of the Illinois House.

* Anti-abortion groups dump Rauner for 2018: Meanwhile, Rep. Jeanne Ives, a DuPage County Republican, told me in a phone interview that she’s “much closer” to deciding whether to run after getting expressions of support from “all over the state.”

* Rauner losing his groove

* Kass: Rep. Jeanne Ives attacks Rauner’s weak right flank

* HB 40: Saving Abortion Access in Illinois

* Editorial: Rauner’s unforced error

* Knox County Right to Life leaders say Rauner’s re-election chances are now dim: “We’re going to lose the election. I don’t think Rauner can win, and I think if Rauner wins – what have we won? We’ve basically got a Democrat in Republican clothing.” He added, “So I don’t see the Republican party or Pro-Lifers losing by running another candidate.”

- Posted by Rich Miller        

  1. - NoGifts - Tuesday, Oct 10, 17 @ 12:54 pm:

    Offset savings: Cost of an abortion is many times lower than cost of a birth.

  2. - Honeybear - Tuesday, Oct 10, 17 @ 12:56 pm:

    Wow, ILGOP really doesn’t like the taste of Perfidy

  3. - Roman - Tuesday, Oct 10, 17 @ 1:00 pm:

    From the above “Rauner losing his groove” link:

    == (Madigan) outmaneuvered the governor, peeling away enough Republicans to pass a budget that featured an income tax hike. ==

    More fodder for Ives.

    Rauner’s message to conservatives is “stick with me and I’ll take on Madigan.” But, he’s already tried and failed miserably. Ives can argue that through his political ineptitude, Rauner has made Madigan more powerful than ever before.

  4. - Swift - Tuesday, Oct 10, 17 @ 1:03 pm:

    See, Rauner doesn’t have a social agenda, this is just good governance, cover the costs of aborting the children of the impoverished and state employees and save taxpayer money. Venture capital 101, cut costs to improve the attractiveness of the company to investors despite any social costs.

  5. - wordslinger - Tuesday, Oct 10, 17 @ 1:05 pm:

    The “fiscal impact” of HB40, besides being illusory, is preposterous coming from the likes of Ives.

    She and the other “outraged” legislators played ball with Rauner when he was piling on more than $10B in unpaid bills. He literally couldnt have done it without them.

    And Ives and the rest certainly don’t have a “fiscal impact” problem with the $75M tax credit designed to aid Catholic schools.

    Don’t pretend you oppose HB40 now because of “fiscal conservatism.” Rauner and those who enabled him simply can’t claim that label.

  6. - Arsenal - Tuesday, Oct 10, 17 @ 1:06 pm:

    I’m pretty convinced now that this isn’t something Rauner can just wait out. Every day brings a new story about conservative anger at him, with basically nothing to rebut it.

  7. - Swift - Tuesday, Oct 10, 17 @ 1:22 pm:

    Next on the Turnaround Agenda, smoking is now permitted in state facilities and encouraged with low cost GTR brand cigarettes, inmates can now purchase shanks in the commissary and prison infirmaries are now stocked with Smarties instead of actual medicine. The startup costs of getting wards of the state working in coal mines are probably too high, but I’m sure there are alternative plans to deal with the orphans, he did just offer up a congratulatory Tweet about China…

  8. - Old time Republican - Tuesday, Oct 10, 17 @ 1:39 pm:

    Jeanne Ives will be as damaging to the Illinois GOP as Alan Keyes was. God bless her soul, JBT warned them all in 2014 what would happen if you ran a far right wing conservative and she was 100% correct. Proft only sees $$$ and could care less about the future of this great state. Ives is only a pawn in his game of self enrichment.
    Rauner is severely damaged but Ives is utterly unelectable state wide.

  9. - Ahoy! - Tuesday, Oct 10, 17 @ 1:52 pm:

    –“Offset savings”–

    Yes, this is actually probably going to save money. That might not matter to most folks on any side of the debate, but if you’re looking strictly at a fiscal impact, it will save money.

    As for Ives, let her run, she will probably get destroyed in the primary, if she somehow won she would get absolutely demolished in a general election. Let her run and then we don’t have to deal with her in the House either, everyone wins! Except Ives.

  10. - Telly - Tuesday, Oct 10, 17 @ 2:03 pm:

    == Ives is utterly unelectable ==

    Said everybody about Donald Trump.

  11. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Oct 10, 17 @ 2:04 pm:

    ===Said everybody about Donald Trump.===

    Trump lost Illinois by 17 points.

  12. - Last Bull Moose - Tuesday, Oct 10, 17 @ 2:09 pm:

    Pickett’s charge revisited, a futile and costly effort in a lost cause.

    Rauner needs a challenger, but not her.

  13. - blue dog dem - Tuesday, Oct 10, 17 @ 2:17 pm:

    Recent McDonalds coffee club polling data has Rauner losing to any of the current Dem candidates 12-1-1. This is the same coffee club that voted 13-1 Rauner over Quinn.

  14. - allknowingmasterofracoondom - Tuesday, Oct 10, 17 @ 2:22 pm:

    Killing babies is cheaper than raising babies. Wow. That is some cold you-know-what right there.

    Oh yea, it is a women’s healthcare “access” issue. I forgot.

  15. - G'Kar - Tuesday, Oct 10, 17 @ 2:31 pm:

    ==Illinoisans deserve bold leaders, and in 2018, they can pick those leaders willing to fight for them to own a home in a safe community, to have access to quality schools, to be able to count on basic services when they are in need, and to have the opportunity to build their lives and pursue happiness.==

    That’s why Ives supports a progressive income tax to reduce the dependence on property taxes, SB 1947 to create a new funding system to help bring quality to Illinois schools, protected social safety net by voting to override the Governor’s veto of the budget, and voted for SB 10 to allow all Illinoisans to build their lives and pursue happiness.

    Oh, wait . . .

  16. - Cleric dcn - Tuesday, Oct 10, 17 @ 2:34 pm:

    Snuffing out little babies on taxpayer dollars is saving money. There are periods of history that show this sort of behavior and it is not pretty. If fact truth be know it is some of the darkest moments in human history.

    By the same token they need to not allow some people to work for the State because they drain the healthcare budget. We do not want to hire you unless you pass a physical and do not need to take any medication, all the blood work is normal. Yes then we can hire you.

    You want to have a baby on the Medicaid’s dime. Well now we want to see if you have the correct history to produce a productive person.

  17. - Ghost - Tuesday, Oct 10, 17 @ 3:02 pm:

    Economic impact should include that the money is spent in the Illinois economy creating jobs

  18. - VanillaMan - Tuesday, Oct 10, 17 @ 3:22 pm:

    ==“We’re going to lose the election. I don’t think Rauner can win, and I think if Rauner wins – what have we won? We’ve basically got a Democrat in Republican clothing.” He added, “So I don’t see the Republican party or Pro-Lifers losing by running another candidate.”==

    This. is. real.

  19. - Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Oct 10, 17 @ 3:27 pm:

    ===“We’re going to lose the election. I don’t think Rauner can win, and I think if Rauner wins – what have we won? We’ve basically got a Democrat in Republican clothing.” He added, “So I don’t see the Republican party or Pro-Lifers losing by running another candidate.”===

    What conservatives are learning now is…

    No repeal of HB40 is in the offing for the next 5 years… at least.

    But, Raunerites supported Rauner in the House and the Senate since January 2015.

    So there’s that.

  20. - VanillaMan - Tuesday, Oct 10, 17 @ 3:46 pm:

    Rauner will not win reelection. His last hold-outs were pro-lifers hoping he’d support them as they supported him. He did to them what he did to everyone else. So he lost them. He won’t get them back.

    They’ll vote for anyone, but Bruce Rauner. Questioning their resolve is flat-out disrespectful. The Governor can’t win them back.

  21. - Nick Name - Tuesday, Oct 10, 17 @ 4:02 pm:

    “Killing babies is cheaper than raising babies. Wow. That is some cold you-know-what right there.”

    It’s simple math. An abortion can cost as little as $300 and as much as $1500. But the average cost for a vaginal delivery is more than $18,000, and almost $28,000 for a C-section.

    If Republicans really were pro-life, they’d be piling on to shovel as much Medicaid money as possible to states to pay for medical care, including pre-natal care, deliveries, and post-natal care, for poor women. But instead they want to cut Medicaid. Watch for more states to pass laws similar to HB40.

    The GOP Congress just let the federal CHIP program — health insurance for low-income children, covering about 9 million children nationwide — lapse, but the House just passed a 20-week abortion ban. So sure, more babies may be born, but they can fend for themselves on health care (and nutrition, etc.).

    The GOP is not pro-life, and “pro-lifers” are the most gullible voting bloc ever. You got in bed with Trump; you got in bed with Rauner. Own it.

  22. - Last Bull Moose - Tuesday, Oct 10, 17 @ 4:41 pm:

    One strand of pro-life is about saving souls, not about having children live a life of material comforts. When my grandfather practiced medicine in central Illinois he always chose the mothers’ life over the childs’ during delivery. He only lost 2 mothers during his career. For this he was denied privileges at the Catholic hospital.

  23. - Telly - Tuesday, Oct 10, 17 @ 4:50 pm:

    – Trump lost Illinois by 17 points –

    Not the primary.

    Agreed that Ives has no chance in the General. But dismissing her chances in the primary would be tantamount to dismissing Trump after the Mexicans-are-rapists and McCain-is-not-a-hero episodes. She’ll probably say equally wacky things.

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