* WBEZ…
All eyes are now on State Rep. Jeanne Ives, a three-term House member from west suburban Wheaton. She’s been the most visible voice of conservative anger over Rauner’s abandonment of a past pledge to veto legislation that allows public funding for abortions.
Ives told WBEZ Monday she intends to announce an exploratory committee for governor this week and has gotten commitments of support from past Rauner donors.
She also ridiculed Rauner’s campaign video: “To me, it didn’t matter what he said in that video. You can’t trust his word. Venture capitalist Rauner would have fired Rauner by now for failure to perform and for lying.” […]
Going back to 1990, incumbent Illinois governors have been challenged four times in primaries. Each time, the challengers got clobbered. Protest votes against Republican Gov. Jim Edgar and Democratic Govs. Rod Blagojevich and Pat Quinn trended between 25 percent and 33 percent. Rauner is clearly vulnerable with one poll in March measuring his public approval numbers in the mid-30s.
- DuPage - Tuesday, Oct 24, 17 @ 10:14 am:
I would vote for her in the primary but not in the general election. I would vote AGAINST Rauner.
- Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Oct 24, 17 @ 10:15 am:
I see her “over/under” at 37.5%.
If Ives can get ~ $5 million to really press the issue and peak at the end and give conservatives some money to really GOTV like they can with conservative groups, she can get within 20 points.
It should be a low overhead and high burn rate for GOTV and late running ads.
Like Dave McKinney reminds us, the $8,500 she has now can’t renovate an average kitchen.
- The 647 - Tuesday, Oct 24, 17 @ 10:20 am:
How is Dan Hynes losing by a percentage point in 2010 getting clobbered?
- Reaganing - Tuesday, Oct 24, 17 @ 10:30 am:
This is all poppycock. Ives running is all hypothetical and depends on so much. She has no money and no name recognition, and isn’t even taken seriously by a lot in her own party. Plus she would run as what, a single issue candidate on hb40? Maybe, if the stars aligned for her, she cracks 30%
- Rich Miller - Tuesday, Oct 24, 17 @ 10:35 am:
===a single issue candidate on hb40?===
Nope. There’s also the bogus but still powerful “sanctuary state” law and everything in Rep. Breen’s press release issued after Rauner signed HB40.
https://capitolfax.com/2017/09/28/house-gop-floor-leader-i-can-no-longer-support-rauner/
- Arsenal - Tuesday, Oct 24, 17 @ 10:36 am:
==Venture capitalist Rauner would have fired Rauner by now for failure to perform and for lying.==
That’s a pretty good line that could bruise him up if she repeats it a bunch.
- Arsenal - Tuesday, Oct 24, 17 @ 10:38 am:
==Nope. There’s also the bogus but still powerful “sanctuary state” law and everything in Rep. Breen’s press release issued after Rauner signed HB40.==
If Ives wants, she can draw a pretty broad, and deeply conservative, critique of Rauner. She indicates as much in this story, framing it in terms of his proven dishonesty and proven failure to accomplish anything. But, y’know, I get it if you don’t want to wager too much on Jeanie Ives’ message discipline.
- A guy - Tuesday, Oct 24, 17 @ 10:40 am:
The racehorse is only as good as the jockey. This horse will get whipped plenty, probably enough to decide to pull up long before the homestretch.
- Anonymous - Tuesday, Oct 24, 17 @ 10:40 am:
She is running to coalesce the well rounded rancor toward the Lying Flaccid Bruce. It’s not to win, it’s to hurt and activate revenge. Sometimes that overtakes ambition in politics - but only sometimes.
- wordslinger - Tuesday, Oct 24, 17 @ 10:43 am:
– you can’t trust his word…. failure to perform and lying…–
So are Ives and other GOP lawmakers who say this now Madigan stooges, too? Because that was generally the accusation leveled at those of us who have been saying that for a couple of years.
- Henry Francis - Tuesday, Oct 24, 17 @ 10:44 am:
If she runs, money will obviously be a challenge. But what I would be most interested in is seeing where her colleagues in the legislature would line up in a primary.
That could be very awkward financially for all of them who have lived on Raunerbucks. And, if Rauner wins another term, it could be awkward legislatively as the Guv would need to work with them.
- Anon221 - Tuesday, Oct 24, 17 @ 10:48 am:
It could present a quandary if Ives is on the Primary ballot. On one hand, I would really, really like to defeat Rauner in the primary by helping out the R voters who would vote against him. But then there’s the Dem side where I may also want to make sure the strongest candidate gets on the General to defeat Rauner in the Fall. Regardless, I want to see Ives debate and chase Rauner until the Primary. He’s not going to like it, and if he gets too nasty towards Ives, that could turn off some R’s from even turning out for him in the General.
- Juice - Tuesday, Oct 24, 17 @ 10:49 am:
The 647. Not to speak for Rich, but I assumed that he was talking about Tio Hardiman in 2014 running as a protest candidate. Not Hynes in 2010 who ran a real campaign, but announced before there was really much of anything to protest.
- Grandson of Man - Tuesday, Oct 24, 17 @ 10:49 am:
I believe it was Rep. Skillicorn who said that Rauner didn’t fight much against the income tax increase. Perhaps Rep. Breen also said something similar. So there’s that, along with HB 40 and the sanctuary state. It will be fun if the coveted suburban women see an ad that says Rauner caved to Madigan on the tax hike.
- wordslinger - Tuesday, Oct 24, 17 @ 10:55 am:
Guy, who is the horse and who is the jockey in your metaphor?
- old time golfer - Tuesday, Oct 24, 17 @ 11:04 am:
Its smoke and mirrors by her and Proft to keep driving Rauner crazy. She cant win and has had no luck raising money. The other factor people keep ignoring who in there right mind is going to run with her as Lt Gov? Rauners millions will run commercial after commercial of negative adds against her and whoever is dumb enough to ask for that abuse.
OW is being nice at 37.5%
- Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Oct 24, 17 @ 11:08 am:
===…being nice at 37.5%===
Not really…
Between the sanctuary state bill signing, HB40, a Catholic Cardinal calling out Rauner….
If I said 40%, that would be generous.
Conservatives vote, and vote when angered.
I like the number at 37.5%
- Too Little, Too Late? - Tuesday, Oct 24, 17 @ 11:09 am:
The calendar is about to turn to November. Ives is leaving herself a minimal amount of time to circulate petitions and collect valid signatures.
- Arsenal - Tuesday, Oct 24, 17 @ 11:13 am:
==Ives is leaving herself a minimal amount of time to circulate petitions and collect valid signatures.==
There’s some big chunks of the Republican firmament pointedly not circulating for Rauner. If she can activate them, she can do it.
- just an observer - Tuesday, Oct 24, 17 @ 11:15 am:
Based upon the number of what sounds like Democrats stating that Ives should just give up, and let Rauner lose the general election, I say go for it! Enough compromising.
- Rich Miller - Tuesday, Oct 24, 17 @ 11:15 am:
===Ives is leaving herself a minimal amount of time===
Meh. There’s still plenty of time.
- A guy - Tuesday, Oct 24, 17 @ 11:18 am:
===Guy, who is the horse and who is the jockey in your metaphor?===
Sling, Ill take your question seriously… Rep. Ives is the jockey. The GOP faithful are the horse.
- VanillaMan - Tuesday, Oct 24, 17 @ 11:19 am:
An ILGOP West Point educated female gubernatorial candidate will get attention. It’s up to her what she does with it.
Money can’t buy that.
- cdog - Tuesday, Oct 24, 17 @ 11:27 am:
Any “negative ads” about Ives run by Rauner, will actually appeal to the non-buttercup crowd.
Bring it. This is a fight that needs to happen.
The ILGOP has been being punked by Rauner for over three years now. Rauner can no longer play confidence man and contradict actual truth.
It’s Game On, kids.
Speak the truth. Give Rauner, and any of his unprincipled tagalongs he11, Ives.
- Arsenal - Tuesday, Oct 24, 17 @ 11:33 am:
==An ILGOP West Point educated female gubernatorial candidate will get attention.==
That’s true, we underrate the fact that she has an intriguing profile.
- Life long Republican - Tuesday, Oct 24, 17 @ 11:43 am:
~Aresenal~ You need lots of money for people to know that your background is intriguing and that she lacks…
- Roman - Tuesday, Oct 24, 17 @ 11:47 am:
== Going back to 1990…==
Yes, most primary challenges of elected incumbents (that doesn’t count Quinn in ‘10) have been Quixotic footnotes. But never before has an incumbent governor been so out of step with his party’s base voters.
- A guy - Tuesday, Oct 24, 17 @ 11:50 am:
With or without money, she has the means to get attention.
- Arsenal - Tuesday, Oct 24, 17 @ 11:50 am:
==You need lots of money for people to know that your background is intriguing and that she lacks…==
Her profile, plus the press’ need for drama, will get her a smattering of press (I mean, look it, already has). From there, it’s up to her to lure in a big fish or two for money. But she’s going to get more coverage than, say, Tio Hardiman did in ‘14.
- Rich Miller - Tuesday, Oct 24, 17 @ 11:52 am:
===Her profile, plus the press’ need for drama, will get her a smattering of press ===
Could be more than that. Think Fox News assigning somebody to the beat.
- Generic Drone - Tuesday, Oct 24, 17 @ 12:00 pm:
Republicans need to run a moderate candidate. Ives is not that person any more than Rauner.
- cdog - Tuesday, Oct 24, 17 @ 12:32 pm:
RINO’s could be dangerously near extinction. /s
sidecar– Who would the Tribune endorse, West Point Ives or Lyin’ Bruce?
- Thomas Paine - Tuesday, Oct 24, 17 @ 1:05 pm:
I don’t consider the Democratic Primaries for governor relevant. The Democratic Party does not have the same deep ideological schisms that the Illinois GOP has.
Here are some primary numbers that ought to give Rauner pause:
2014:
Rauner - 40%
Cross - 57%
Oberweis - 56%
2010 -
Topinka - 60%
2006
Topinka - 38%
2002
Ryan - 44
Durkin - 45
Hawkinson - 47
Burkett - 64
1998
Did Rick son - 48
Churchill - 47
Over the last 20 years, since federal prosecutors and statewide Democratic victories unplugged the GOP patronage machine, the performance of party-preferred candidates has Ben pretty unimpressive.
Keep in mind too that while Rauner won a crushing victory over Quinn in the general, his 40 percent in the primary shows some pretty fundamental weakness.
I would start Ives at 42%.
- train111 - Tuesday, Oct 24, 17 @ 1:15 pm:
If Ives runs, the
Cook County Board ought to institute a tax on popcorn. They could make up all that lost soda tax revenue in 1 debate.
- Three-Finger Brown - Tuesday, Oct 24, 17 @ 1:40 pm:
One year ago I would have said she has no chance, with her brand of nasty pitchfork populism and lack of viable ideas, but, well…
I’m no Rauner fan, but he’s Winston Churchill compared to Ives.
- wordslinger - Tuesday, Oct 24, 17 @ 1:47 pm:
– Who would Tribune endorse? West Point Ives or Lyin’
Bruce?–
You can’t be serious.
Also, a little help for you: a political appointment to a service academy at the age of 18 is not a sign of a lifetime of superior virtue and righteousness. Those folks have the same strengths and weaknesses as the rest of humanity.
- Arsenal - Tuesday, Oct 24, 17 @ 1:53 pm:
==Could be more than that. Think Fox News assigning somebody to the beat.==
The wild card is the Bannon/Breitbart/Mercer crowd. If the got interested (they’d bring money, too), Ives could really mix it up.
==a political appointment to a service academy at the age of 18 is not a sign of a lifetime of superior virtue and righteousness==
No, but good luck convincing voters of that.
- Suburbanon - Tuesday, Oct 24, 17 @ 1:57 pm:
I supported Ives to get her off the Wheaton City Council. Now I will support her to leave the Illinois House. Even if she wins primary, she can’t win General. However, Proft may gain a new co-host.
- cdog - Tuesday, Oct 24, 17 @ 2:24 pm:
“…not a sign of a lifetime of superior virtue and righteousness.”
This would be nice but West Point Ives just has to be more virtuous, and more principled than Lyin’ Rauner, and we all know that will not be hard.
- wordslinger - Tuesday, Oct 24, 17 @ 2:27 pm:
Arsenal, I covered West Pointer Alexander Haig’s last place finish in the 88 Iowa caucuses.
Pete Dawkins won the Heisman
Trophy at West Point, was a Rhodes Scholar and a combat veteran and couldn’t get elected to anything in New Jersey.
Many other examples long forgotten,
Not a knock on service academy grads, it’s just not the golden ticket to elective office in and of itself.
- VanillaMan - Tuesday, Oct 24, 17 @ 2:30 pm:
Those were guys, genius.
- cdog - Tuesday, Oct 24, 17 @ 2:45 pm:
I guess Haig wasn’t “in control.” Probably couldn’t get elected dog catcher, as they say today. /s
Ives has a real chance, as a woman, a mother, a veteran, who is outspoken and principled. I hope this continues to develop.
Back on Haig, he had a fatal credibility problem when he “took control” of the White House. He was too creepy when he forgot about the Speaker of the House in his Presidential succession exercise, after Reagan was shot.
His military credentials couldn’t overcome that crazy brain fluff.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zUKW0fL-OqY
- Rabid - Tuesday, Oct 24, 17 @ 4:06 pm:
if jeanne jumped ship to right to work that’s 15% union vote, plus 36% base
- Honeybadger - Tuesday, Oct 24, 17 @ 4:30 pm:
- Suburbanon - Tuesday, Oct 24, 17 @ 1:57 pm:
I supported Ives to get her off the Wheaton City Council. Now I will support her to leave the Illinois House. Even if she wins primary, she can’t win General. However, Proft may gain a new co-host.
Or they could start a new Christmas card company “Proft & Ives” specializing in mean-spirited greeting cards.
- Oswego Willy - Tuesday, Oct 24, 17 @ 6:35 pm:
===I would start Ives at 42%===
I’ll take the under.
- Wordslinger - Tuesday, Oct 24, 17 @ 11:37 pm:
Perhaps I’ve been too dismissive of Ives chances up to now. It ain’t the 1990s anymore for the ILGOP.
In the 2014 GOP primary, Rauner got 291K of 819K votes, for 40%. Good enough to win a four-way race, but not exactly a runaway train.
In the 2016 prez. primary, there were 1.45M GOP votes: Trump, 562K; Cruz, 438K; Kaisich, 286K; Rubio, 127K, and the rest with change.
That makes one million Trump/Cruz GOP primary voters, two-thirds of the total. It’s within reason to think that group of potential gubernatorial primary voters might be more inclined to Ives’ brand of Republican than Rauner’s.
Rauner might want to think of pulling a Madigan and put a couple of other Republicans on the ballot to avoid a one-on-one race, to be on the safe side.
- Rich Miller - Tuesday, Oct 24, 17 @ 11:41 pm:
===might want to think of pulling a Madigan and put a couple of other Republicans on the ballot===
Except, for the moment, a federal judge has looked askance at that behavior. Too big of a risk.
- Sparminer - Wednesday, Oct 25, 17 @ 1:27 am:
Ives should run as an Independent–bypassing the Primary. Downstate Conservative Democrats don’t like or trust JB because he is Madigan’s candidate. Republicans don’t like Rauner. Put Ives in a good position to pull a WIN . Conservative Democrats and Republicans looking for a conservative minded Independent.