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*** UPDATED x2 - Kennedy, DGA respond *** Illinois drops to sixth-largest state

Wednesday, Dec 20, 2017

* Illinois Policy Institute

Illinois is no longer the fifth-largest state in the U.S., according to data released Dec. 20 by the U.S. Census Bureau. That title now belongs to Pennsylvania.

Illinois shrank by 33,700 people from July 2016 to July 2017, the worst decline of any state in the U.S. in raw terms. In percentage terms, Illinois saw the third-worst population decline in the nation. That brought the 2017 population estimate for Illinois to 12,802,023 people.

Meanwhile, Pennsylvania saw modest population growth of 18,400 people over the same time. And that was enough to overtake Illinois as the fifth-largest state in the country. The Census pegged Pennsylvania’s population at 12,805,537.

The one-year spreadsheet is here. Indiana gained 32,811 people during the same one-year period. Iowa gained 14,842. Michigan gained 28,866. Ohio added 36,055. And Minnesota added 51,556.

Illinois had 12,830,632 people in 2010, and then peaked at 12,890,403 in 2013 before dropping by 88,380 since then.

*** UPDATE 1 *** DGA…

Today, the U.S. Census Bureau released population estimates that showed Illinois is continuing to shrink under Governor Bruce Rauner. Over the past year, 33,703 people left the state. Illinois fell behind Pennsylvania and now is the 6th largest state in the nation. All of Illinois’ neighbors grew.

The rate of population loss has been accelerating under Rauner’s failed leadership:

    2016-2017 – Lost 33,703
    2015-2016 – Lost 26,325
    2014-2015 – Lost 20,387
    2013-2014 – Lost 7,965
    2012-2013 – Gained 11,909
    [US Census, Accessed 12/20/17]

Rauner made out-migration a campaign issue in 2014, and his inaugural address focused on population loss - “People are leavin’ to find jobs, or because they run companies, and they’re takin’ their jobs with `em.” Rauner continued, “One of the main reasons companies have been leaving Illinois is that they don’t have confidence in the financial condition of our state.”

Rauner’s solution? He plunged the state into a budget crisis that tripled the bill backlog, sunk the state’s bond rating, and forced a max exodus from the state’s colleges and universities. Unsurprisingly, more people are leaving the state than before he became Governor.

*** UPDATE 1 *** Chris Kennedy campaign…

Bruce Rauner’s leadership is decimating our state and our rapid population decline is evidence of that. Illinois residents are moving to states where quality schools and economic opportunity are available to them. His budget impasse cut off social services to more than 1 million people and made it impossible for too many to see their future in our state.

It doesn’t have to be this way. But, we need to do more than change our governor to fix the broken system that’s pushing people out of Illinois in droves. We have to change the way we fund our schools, the way we tax our citizens, the way we confront gun violence, and we need to hold our leaders in both parties accountable.

- Posted by Rich Miller        

163 Comments
  1. - titan - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 10:19 am:

    3,500 people is a rounding error in a population that size


  2. - Steve - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 10:23 am:

    Illinois will probably lose another seat in Congress.


  3. - Buford - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 10:23 am:

    So IL’s population has shrunk by just under 30k since 2010? Don’t know why, but I would of thought it would be higher.


  4. - Lucky Pierre - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 10:24 am:

    Nothing to see here folks move along. Permanently raising taxes and not reforming our business environment or government has solved all of our problems.

    Looks like a lot of Democratic literature boasting of our 5th largest economy and how wealthy Illinois is will have to be reprinted.


  5. - illini - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 10:26 am:

    Just based on these numbers it would appear that half of the population loss can be explained in part by the 17,000 Illinois college students that are attending out of state colleges that will never return. Sad.


  6. - NeverPoliticallyCorrect - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 10:26 am:

    So it’s just an estimate but if this is accurate it is yet another confirmation of how the political class has failed this state.


  7. - Ray del Camino - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 10:26 am:

    If you listened to all the Rauner caterwauling, you’d have thought we dropped 100k people to Right-to-Work states.


  8. - anon2 - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 10:28 am:

    === Illinois shrank by 33,700 people from July 2016 to July 2017, the worst decline of any state in the U.S. in raw terms. ===

    If that had happened on Quinn’s watch, Rauner would’ve blamed it on the Governor. Since it happened on Rauner’s watch, the Governor is no longer in charge.


  9. - muon - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 10:31 am:

    Illinois will certainly lose a seat in the next apportionment. If the rate of decrease picks up in the next 2 years so that the state loses about 100,000 more than currently estimated, Illinois could see a loss of two seats. That’s not likely, but it is possible with the current trends.


  10. - blankster - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 10:34 am:

    I plan to add myself and my wife to that decline soon. I’m tired of paying the high property taxes and income taxes that will only get worse as the state and Cook County dive deeper into debt.


  11. - Marc - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 10:35 am:

    .2% isn’t even significant figures


  12. - Downstate - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 10:36 am:

    People are leaving the state for jobs and opportunity.

    Sadly, in those numbers are a lot of high net worth individuals that are further eroding our tax base.

    If you think raising property and income taxes will solve any of this, you are smoking illegal substances.

    How are we going to lure job creators back to Illinois? That is the only question that matters.


  13. - RNUG - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 10:38 am:

    My first 3 thoughts were all politically incorrect … but funny.

    That said, these are just estimates.


  14. - Iggy - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 10:39 am:

    10 years ago I would drive over the border and visit a friend in Munster Indiana. it was just an average Indiana suburb with not a whole lot of businesses lining the streets. 2 months ago I decided to take the scenic route and drive on the Indiana side of the border on my way home from a meeting in South eastern Illinois. As I approached Munster I experienced something that felt eerily familiar. I felt as I had been dropped right off in the middle of an Illinois suburb like a Downers grove. There were new hotels, new restaurants, new everything. Now I am not one to look at this and think Indiana doesn’t deserve to have this type of suburban development, but on the last 30 minutes of my drive back to my Illinois suburb I couldn’t help but think so much of this has happened as a direct result of Illinois’s failures. Obviously my anecdotal account doesn’t represent hard numbers or statistics and I’m sure we could go into all of the factors that created this situation. but instead of arguing the simple fact that Illinois’s population went down and Indiana’s went up, I encourage you to take a drive, because you might just wonder the same thing I wondered.


  15. - muon - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 10:41 am:

    Buford - Illinois’ population increased through 2013, but has declined since. The state has only lost a net of 30K since 2010, but it is down 90K since its peak in 2013.


  16. - Jack Kemp - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 10:41 am:

    Must be the weather.


  17. - People Over Parties - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 10:41 am:

    This is a disgrace. We need to start creating incentives for people to come to Illinois. We need more business friendliness, and a better economic engine, especially in Chicago. We need fiscal reform. Why has every other state solved its problems except for us. Really, what’s wrong with us?? This goes beyond one person or party. This is long term, and everyone takes part in this. Shame on us.


  18. - Nishi - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 10:41 am:

    I did my part. I moved back from Arizona.


  19. - Ron - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 10:45 am:

    Not surprising. This will continue for a while as we have one of the highest state and local tax burdens in the nation along with slow job growth and powerful public unions that require vast amounts of tax money.


  20. - A guy - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 10:46 am:

    The decline would be insignificant maybe IF all of our neighbors hadn’t grown. It’s not insignificant in that light.


  21. - Ron - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 10:48 am:

    A guy, you’re absolutely correct. How many states lost population? Illinois being one of very few is not good.


  22. - Sue - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 10:50 am:

    Guess what- the vast majority leaving contributed more then took from the state


  23. - Ron - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 10:50 am:

    Sad that a horrible place like Indiana gains 30K people and IL loses that many.


  24. - People Over Parties - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 10:51 am:

    With more evidence such as this, anyone suggesting that economic reforms are not needed is being utterly tone deaf.


  25. - logic not emotion - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 10:52 am:

    Given Illinois’ state of dysfunction, I find it amazing that more people haven’t left yet.


  26. - Ron - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 10:53 am:

    Nah, we should just raise taxes more. That will help, right?


  27. - Ron - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 10:55 am:

    People don’t stick around IL due to the weather or the scenery.

    We need to be competitive economically to grow population.

    Too bad few in state government get that.


  28. - mtwtsn - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 10:58 am:

    I also did my part, moved back from California — that was a tough choice, especially now that it’s winter. And upon moving back, it was incredible to notice the difference in the attitude and general psyche of the population. San Francisco is buzzing, with so much excitement and positivity in the air. I love Chicago, hence why I moved back, but there is a noticeable malaise here. I know everyone on here wants to blame Rauner, and as a Democrat it’s tempting, but let’s not forget he won because this feeling of malaise existed before his tenure. If Democrats had compromised on a number of pro-business issues, we might not be first in the nation in population loss. My parents just moved to Florida because of the property taxes here — talking about how high they are is not a “right-wing” agenda (my parents voted for Ralph Nader).


  29. - City Zen - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 10:58 am:

    It’s worse than those numbers imply. As of 2016, the “Under 18″ population is 1.5 percentage points lower than it was in 2010, whereas “Over 65″ is 2.1 percentage points higher. That’s an important metric in a state that doesn’t tax retirement income.

    So while Illinois’ population decreases, its tax base will decrease at a faster rate.


  30. - Robert the 1st - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 11:00 am:

    Where are Wordslinger and Demoralized to explain this is because of the bad weather (which apparently changed recently)? It has nothing to do with their party’s policies, regulations, or taxes.


  31. - Ron - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 11:00 am:

    City Zen, IL still has a younger population than the national average though.


  32. - Ron - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 11:01 am:

    mtwtsn, I don’t notice a malaise in Chicago. It’s booming.


  33. - @misterjayem - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 11:08 am:

    “Where are Wordslinger and Demoralized to explain this is because of the bad weather (which apparently changed recently)?”

    Oh, you’re looking for a more immediate explanation of Illinois’ loss of population?

    Google “Who was Governor of Illinois from July 2016 to July 2017?”

    – MrJM


  34. - Robert the 1st - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 11:10 am:

    Yeah MrJM,

    People and businesses are fleeing because of Rauner and his proposed (but not enacted) policies. I’m embarrassed for you.


  35. - @misterjayem - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 11:15 am:

    “I’m embarrassed for you.”

    Oh, don’t bother on my account.

    But if you really want to be embarassed, just Google “Illinois ‘no budget’” or “Rauner worst governor” — that should do the trick.

    – MrJM


  36. - People Over Parties - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 11:20 am:

    This is beyond Rauner. This trend, and the feelings with it, have been occurring long term. Don’t be partisian.


  37. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 11:24 am:

    ===Don’t be partisian.===

    Rauner, unlike any governor, vetoed budgets purposely to hurt social services and higher ed. Rauner purposely ran up bills, knowing without a budget this could hurt the credit ratingZxx

    I’m not partisan. That’s what happened.

    Rauner is the worst Republican Governor in America. That’s not helping any trend, it’s exacerbates people’s motives to move.


  38. - anon2 - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 11:24 am:

    The income tax dropped sharply in 2015 when much of the temporary tax increase expired. But that didn’t attract lots of newcomers or keep others from leaving. If taxes are the main reason people migrate, then the tax cut should’ve had some effect.


  39. - @misterjayem - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 11:25 am:

    “Don’t be partisian.”

    I scrupulously criticize every single Illinois governor who’s ever presided over a three-year budget impasse, regardless of party.

    – MrJM


  40. - Anonymous - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 11:33 am:

    - Where are Wordslinger and Demoralized to explain this -

    Where’s your explanation for the 60k increase from 2010 - 2013? Or did you not make it past the headline?


  41. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 11:37 am:

    ===With more evidence such as this, anyone suggesting that economic reforms are not needed is being utterly tone deaf.===

    Term limits and fair maps…

    Ugh.


  42. - Robert the 1st - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 11:40 am:

    You’re right. It’s all Rauner’s fault. Everyone is leaving because there wasn’t a state budget. Has nothing to do with regulations, policy or taxation. Every state state that borders us says otherwise; but the state workers, union officials, lobbyists, and politicians who comment here know better.


  43. - cdog - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 11:44 am:

    News Flash. These are net numbers.

    Does anybody have feeder numbers?

    How many people left with incomes over $50k?
    How many newbies came that were attracted to Illinos’ sanctuary offerings?

    (Like the bakery jobs in Chicago. /s)


  44. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 11:45 am:

    ===You’re right. It’s all Rauner’s fault.===

    “Pat Quinn failed” says so.

    Pick a subject, there’s a quote from Candidate Rauner;

    Bond ratings? - Pat Quinn failed
    Budget? - Pat Quinn failed
    Crime? - Pat Quinn failed
    Administrative issues, Personnel? - Pat Quinn failed

    People leaving Illinois? - Pat Quinn failed.

    So… Rauner, as the worst Republican governor doesn’t own his three years of failure? Candidate Rauner may not see it that way, LOL


  45. - Robert the 1st - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 11:47 am:

    Blame him all you like. Elect another Democrat governor. IL will turn around in a heart-beat.


  46. - Too Much to Handle - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 11:48 am:

    I would be curious to know more about the people who left. Who were they? What part of the state did they live in? What were their incomes and what were the main reasons why they left the state? This data would be more useful in fashioning solutions than generalizing about the reasons why we think people are leaving.


  47. - Arthur Andersen - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 11:50 am:

    Well, at least we got rid of Arizona Bob.


  48. - kitty - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 11:53 am:

    No evidence to date demonstrates implementing RTWFL, elimination of prevailing wage laws and prohibiting collective-bargaining for public sector employment would fix Illinois budget problems or address out migration. These measures are supported by those who resent the ability of public employees to be part of the middle class (as well as the services they provide) and by the multimillionaire capitalist investor class whom want to exploit all workers public or private.


  49. - illini - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 11:59 am:

    @ArthurAndersen - I was thinking the same.


  50. - @misterjayem - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 11:59 am:

    “Blame him all you like. Elect another Democrat governor. IL will turn around in a heart-beat.”

    You see?

    With strawman arguments like that, there’s no need for you to feel embarrassed on behalf of any other commenters.

    – MrJM


  51. - Don Draper - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 12:00 pm:

    The candy snackers told me that a big tax increase without any reform of spending drivers like pensions would put a stop to this kind of thing. I feel misled.


  52. - NorthsideNoMore - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 12:18 pm:

    Intelligent people and sucessful busnises look at options… then usually select the best one based on numerous factors. Locating, re-locating or expanding to the once Great State of Illinois is not a desirable choice without some major incentives or illogical motivation to come or stay.


  53. - Anon - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 12:18 pm:

    With approximately 45% of graduating high school students leaving the state for other out-of-state universities perhaps this is one of the reasons for Illinois population decline? Student populations are counted in the census data (including those students who live in dorms). Maybe we need to actually fund our higher education system?


  54. - Ron - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 12:21 pm:

    vetoed budgets purposely to hurt social services and higher ed.”

    Nah, you can thank public employee unions for crowding out social spending.


  55. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 12:23 pm:

    Governors own vetoes, no matter their rationale.

    I’m not feeding you. Good luck.


  56. - Ron - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 12:25 pm:

    Public employee unions own our tax revenue.


  57. - Jimk849 - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 12:26 pm:

    Finally Rauner’s 10th. Accomplishment to finish his list.


  58. - Ron - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 12:27 pm:

    How many newbies came that were attracted to Illinos’ sanctuary offerings?

    (Like the bakery jobs in Chicago. /s)

    cdog, Who cares? What we know from the estimates is that Chicago is gaining high income, highly educated people and losing low income, low educated people.


  59. - illini - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 12:28 pm:

    @Willy - unfortunately some will not take your advice.


  60. - Ron - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 12:28 pm:

    Chicago now highest educated populace of the 5 largest US cities.


  61. - People Over Parties - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 12:29 pm:

    Partisan blaming continues to find it’s way in. If we want to have a future, the same old way of doing things isn’t gonna cut it.


  62. - Ron - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 12:29 pm:

    Party, but surely taxing high income folks even more will help Illinois.


  63. - OneMan - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 12:30 pm:

    It would be interesting to see how this breaks down by age.

    My guess is as the boomers get older and start to retire is this only going to get worse because regardless of whom you chose to blame, Madigan, Quinn, Rauner, whomever… the thing is if you were on a fixed income wouldn’t you move someplace with a lower property tax burden?

    If you get the maximum payout of Social Security you get about $32,244, you going to stick around and pay 6 or 7 thousand of that a year in property taxes? I don’t plan on it.


  64. - anon2 - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 12:31 pm:

    === I would be curious to know more about the people who left…What were the main reasons why they left the state? ===

    Gallup found that in Illinois, 8 percent of those who said they were leaving claimed it was because of taxes (versus 14 percent of New York respondents). One in four of Illinoisans who said they were leaving claimed it was work/business related, 17 percent said weather/location, 15 percent said it was for a quality of life change, 9 percent said cost of living, and 6 percent said it was for family/friends or school related. https://capitolfax.com/2014/04/30/gallup-half-of-illinoisans-would-leave-if-they-could/

    On the other hand, in per capita terms, Illinois’ gross out-migration rate ranks just 29th out of the 50 states and the District of Columbia. In other words, Illinois residents are actually less likely to move out than are residents of the median state. But things don’t look so good when it comes to gross in-migration. Adjusted for population, Illinois attracts fewer newcomers than all but two other states: New York and Michigan. https://capitolfax.com/2017/09/08/illinois-problem-isnt-people-moving-out-its-that-theyre-not-moving-in/


  65. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 12:35 pm:

    ===Partisan blaming continues to find it’s way===

    I’m using the same matrix Candidate Rauner used in his blame.

    Keep up.

    ===… the same old way of doing things isn’t gonna cut it.===

    You mean vetoing 3 straight budgets, running up record debt, forcing the closure of some social services, diminishing higher ed.

    That’s the new status quo. Rauner’s

    You do realize that…


  66. - Louis G. Atsaves - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 12:38 pm:

    If the population in Illinois was dropping at the same rate as the population of the United States of America, I would take the vast majority of the don’t worry about it it’s not so bad comments which follow this article more seriously.

    But the population of the USA has not dropped over the same period of time, it increased.

    So let’s blame the weather, being that it is far warmer in our immediate neighboring states. /snark

    Illinois. Where lackluster, less than mediocre, tired and adamant refusal to change anything is cherished.

    Sheesh.


  67. - Ron - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 12:41 pm:

    anon2, thanks so taxes and horrible business environment/lack of job growth are why people leave Illinois.


  68. - anon2 - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 12:42 pm:

    It could be a coincidence, but the ten least happy states in 2017 all voted for Trump. From #41-50, the states are ALASKA, TN, MO, KY, MS, ARK, AL, LA, OK, WV. Illinois, a blue state, ranks 20th. Among the ten happiest states, five are blue and five are red, though MN ranks #1.
    https://wallethub.com/edu/happiest-states/6959/


  69. - JS Mill - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 12:42 pm:

    =. Has nothing to do with regulations, policy or taxation. Every state state that borders us says otherwise; =

    You don’t have any clue as to what you are saying. Our border states have higher taxes than we do. And, although it is not a border state it was mentioned in the report…please explain Minnesota. Raised taxes. Highest increase in population. Lots of regulation.

    Go figure.


  70. - Ron - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 12:44 pm:

    No, IL has one of the highest state and local tax burdens in the nation. I think we passed WI now.


  71. - Ron - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 12:44 pm:

    All RTW states surround us now too.


  72. - Ron - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 12:45 pm:

    Decade upon decade our our political class being in bed with public employee unions has created this.


  73. - People Over Parties - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 12:52 pm:

    I’m not endorsing anything Rauner has done during his time in office. There have been disappointments, sure. But I do agree with his point that the state needs to change how it approaches the economy and it’s financial problems. The way things were working before he became governor were not ideal for the state, and I’m sure most people of common sense would agree. The problem goes beyond his tenure.
    Y


  74. - Jc19pd2 - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 12:54 pm:

    Does this line up with the articles I’ve seen here on capfax regarding African Americans leaving Chicago and cook county?
    https://capitolfax.com/2017/05/25/fingers-point-over-continued-chicago-population-loss/


  75. - Ron - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 12:57 pm:

    Jc19pd2, I’m sure the black exodus continues, so very likely a part of the population loss.


  76. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 12:57 pm:

    ===But I do agree with his point that the state needs to change how it approaches the economy and it’s financial problems. The way things were working before he became governor were not ideal for the state, and I’m sure most people of common sense would agree.===

    For the 2nd time…

    You mean vetoing 3 straight budgets, running up record debt, forcing the closure of some social services, diminishing higher ed.

    That’s the new status quo. Rauner’s

    You?

    ===I’m not endorsing anything Rauner has done during his time in office. There have been disappointments, sure.===

    Yeah, tell that to all the social services that closed, the people out of work, the clients losing their providers, you call these dissapointments.

    Rauner is the wrong person to think his change will be good. Three years of Rauner failures, as Candidate Rauner would say…

    … you all them disappointments. That’s fun.


  77. - Ron - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 12:58 pm:

    Gee, so many amazing job opportunities for african americans, right?


  78. - Ron - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 12:58 pm:

    Social spending is being crowded out by the insatiable tax appetite of pensions.


  79. - Ron - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 1:08 pm:

    I would much prefer a social safety net than an expensive unionized public workforce.


  80. - Rob Paral - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 1:11 pm:

    Important to note that, overall, non-metro-Chicago is driving Illinois population loss.
    2010-2016 Change:
    non-metro Chicago part of Illinois: -73,760
    metro Chicago part of Illinois: +44,667
    Pennsylvania outside of metro Philadelphia is stable.


  81. - Lucky Pierre - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 1:11 pm:

    If only Governor Rauner did not veto 3 straight unbalanced budgets that did not do anything to address this terrible outmigration Illinois problems would be solved?

    Good luck running on that


  82. - Baloneymous - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 1:14 pm:

    Can someone please give Ron a teachers pension with no social security so he’s happy and content.


  83. - Ron - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 1:15 pm:

    How about we give teachers social security and a 401k?


  84. - Ron - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 1:15 pm:

    And no match until benefit protection is removed from the state constitution.


  85. - People Over Parties - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 1:16 pm:

    We clearly have different definitions of what “status quo” refers to. My only point is that if we are to have a future, returning to the past isn’t gonna solve much.


  86. - @misterjayem - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 1:19 pm:

    “I would much prefer a social safety net than an expensive unionized public workforce.”

    We’re all very familiar with Bruce Rauner’s wedge argument of 2012, i.e. “In Illinois there’s been a long-time history of what I would call social service, social justice, a bigger role for government in the safety net than in many other states. I think we can drive a wedge issue in the Democratic Party on that topic”

    We’re also very aware of the three years of pain and chaos that Bruce Rauner’s wedge-driving has wrought upon the people of Illinois.

    – MrJM


  87. - Baloneymous - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 1:20 pm:

    Ron

    You do realize if we could even do that. Guess what? Still have to pay pensions too. Ugh/sigh


  88. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 1:22 pm:

    ===If only Governor Rauner did not veto 3 straight unbalanced budgets that did not do anything to address this terrible outmigration Illinois problems would be solved?===

    Since Rauner has yet to sign a budget for Illinois, that isn’t a badge of honor… LOL

    “Look at me, I’m not in charge. I have no budgets.”

    Classic.

    ===We clearly have different definitions of what “status quo” refers to===

    It’s been 3 years, not 3 minutes.

    Rauner is the status quo


  89. - Ron - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 1:26 pm:

    Rauner is the status quo? He’s the first governor in my lifetime to want to change anything.


  90. - Ron - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 1:26 pm:

    It’s crazy how deep some folks heads are in the sand on this site.


  91. - People Over Parties - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 1:27 pm:

    ===Rauner is the status quo===

    Welp, it’s hard to argue with someone who’s never wrong.


  92. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 1:27 pm:

    ===He’s the first governor in my lifetime to want to change anything.===

    How old are you?

    When was the Edgar Ramp?

    What do you add to these discussions?


  93. - Ron - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 1:28 pm:

    You do realize if we could even do that. Guess what? Still have to pay pensions too.

    I have my doubts. Illinois will not be able to honor the pensions. Will be sued and go to the supreme court. A court very likely to be very anti public employee.


  94. - Ron - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 1:29 pm:

    The Edgar ramp is a major part of the problem.


  95. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 1:29 pm:

    ===Welp, it’s hard to argue with someone who’s never wrong.===

    Exactly. You’d think Rauner would learn by now, amirite? He’s wrong quite a bit.


  96. - Ron - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 1:31 pm:

    Edgar was one of our worst governors.


  97. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 1:31 pm:

    You said…

    ===He’s the first governor in my lifetime to want to change anything.===

    Edgar tried to change something…

    ===The Edgar ramp is a major part of the problem.===

    Just stop. Take a nap, read a book, paint, scuplt, go do anything, or add.


  98. - illini - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 1:35 pm:

    @Willy - I guess I am old because I remember Otto Kerner as being our Governor. Some people have a very limited context and an even more limited imagination when attempting to make constructive comments.


  99. - Ron - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 1:36 pm:

    Edgar kicked the can very far. That’s some change.


  100. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 1:40 pm:

    - illini -

    I don’t go back that far as Otto, but there’s something to be said to those not seeing beyond the moment, and trying to then take everyone back to blame for today.

    Institutional knowledge is so incredibly important, “here” especially.

    Oh well. You take care, bud.


  101. - wordslinger - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 2:09 pm:

    –Where are Wordslinger and Demoralized to explain this is because of the bad weather (which apparently changed recently)?–

    Do you see the increases in other Midwestern states as significant? I’d say it’s all the same regional population stagnation.

    But if it makes you feel better, if this trend continues, Indiana will surpass Illinois in population sometime around the year 3000.


  102. - Six Degrees of Separation - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 2:10 pm:

    Iggy 10:39-

    If Indiana were the growth magnet you describe and IL to be in a malaise, we would expect Lake County to be booming in population, and draining the adjacent IL counties. However, this is what the Census estimates tell us…

    Lake CO IN 496,050 (2010) 485,846 (2016) -2.1%
    Will CO IL 677,544 (2010) 689,529 (2016) +1.8%
    Cook Co IL 5,195,075 (2010) 5,203,499 (2016) +0.2%

    My take is that NW Indiana has its own issues. There is some growth in Munster, Griffith and St. John, but sluggish elsewhere especially in the old industrial areas…there are not many Napervilles or Downers Groves in Lake, Porter or LaPorte counties in IN. Will County IL has been a job magnet and going against the grain of recent downturns in the state. Cook also has its issues, especially in south Cook, but downtown is booming, but not enough to offset losses elsewhere in the county.


  103. - Baloneymous - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 2:13 pm:

    Ron

    SCOTUS will set a new precedent overturning contract law? Are u sober right now?


  104. - anon2 - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 2:27 pm:

    === Important to note that, overall, non-metro-Chicago is driving Illinois population loss.===

    In other words, the red part of the State.


  105. - Ron - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 3:13 pm:

    Indiana gained 30K people, Illinois lost 35K people. You guys have your heads buried deep in the sand.


  106. - Ron - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 3:14 pm:

    Thanks Rob Paral. Downstate will continue to lose people as no one wants to live in dead towns. Rural Indiana is doing better. I wonder why?


  107. - wordslinger - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 3:19 pm:

    Ron and Robert, by your “logic,” state policies must be the reason that Illinois’ GDP is more than twice that of Indiana and the population nearly double.

    Same geography, geology, lake access……

    So… thanks, Madigan?


  108. - Ron - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 3:22 pm:

    wordslinger, yet Illinois is losing people NOW while Indiana is gaining people.


  109. - Ron - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 3:23 pm:

    Look, Indiana is awful, it’s sad that it gains people while we lose them. We are doing something very wrong. One clue, our taxes are not too low.


  110. - Ron - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 3:24 pm:

    Indiana is creating jobs at more the twice the rate Illinois is.


  111. - Ron - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 3:25 pm:

    Illinois YOY job growth 0.3%

    Indiana YOY job growth 0.9%


  112. - wordslinger - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 3:31 pm:

    .5% increase vs. .3% decrease. Go nuts at the significance.

    If you actually look at the spreadsheet link, the Northeast and Midwest are stagnant while the South and West have modest growth. Been that way for quite some time.


  113. - NormalNews - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 3:31 pm:

    Two words explain it… Mike Madigan.


  114. - Downstate - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 3:32 pm:

    Six years ago I started talking about high net worth people leaving Illinois. The general response on this board was “good riddance”.

    Certainly don’t see that attitude anymore. Hopefully some level of maturity is now starting to emerge among the Illinois electorate.

    It all comes down to choices:
    1. Higher Income Taxes
    2. Higher Property Taxes
    3. Fewer social programs
    4. Vote on a constitutional amendment.

    Pretty simple. And keep in mind #1 and #2 above only increases the outflow of job creators from this state.


  115. - 47th Ward - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 3:32 pm:

    ===It’s crazy how deep some folks heads are in the sand on this site.===

    I couldn’t agree more. Thanks for the chuckle.


  116. - wordslinger - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 3:35 pm:

    –Six years ago I started talking about high net worth people leaving Illinois. –

    Yet the facts show a steep decline in poor black communities.

    http://www.chicagobusiness.com/article/20160528/ISSUE05/305289992/chicagos-racial-makeup-is-changing-in-new-ways


  117. - Ron - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 3:36 pm:

    word, that is a huge difference in population trends. I’m sure continuing on our current path of ever increasing taxes will help.


  118. - Ron - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 3:37 pm:

    Chicago is definitely the bright spot, the rest of the state is in a death spiral.


  119. - Gruntled University Employee - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 3:39 pm:

    Minnesota gained the most in the mid west and their billionaire Governor raised taxes.


  120. - Gruntled University Employee - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 3:40 pm:

    Ron, you don’t visit Champaign much do you?


  121. - Ron - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 3:43 pm:

    Indiana has gained 30,000 jobs yoy.

    Illinois has gained 18,000 jobs yoy.

    I’ve been to Champagne. Was just their in October. It’s fine.


  122. - Ron - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 3:44 pm:

    People move where there are jobs. Illinois is hardly creating any. I wonder if our tax structure has anything to do with it.


  123. - Gruntled University Employee - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 3:46 pm:

    With that logic, higher taxes seemed to help Minnesota quite a bit.


  124. - Ron - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 3:48 pm:

    Illinois has a higher tax burden the Minnesota.


  125. - Ron - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 3:50 pm:

    Our tax increase hasn’t helped, if you haven’t noticed.


  126. - Gruntled University Employee - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 3:50 pm:

    But Minnesota increased it’s tax burden and people are flocking to it. I’d love to see Mike Madigan retire, but only if Bruce Rauner is gone also.


  127. - Arizona Bob - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 3:52 pm:

    @Nishi

    =I did my part. I moved back from Arizona=

    and I moved TO Arizona. My real estate taxes went down $8000 for a comparably valued home, and my income taxes went down about $2,000, plus I got a tax CREDIT for $400 I gave to my local schools here. They deserve it. No $120,000 for 178 work day drivers ed teachers here….


  128. - Gruntled University Employee - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 3:53 pm:

    Like Illinois, Minnesota is a prevailing wage state, it’s people can pay more in taxes and have more government services because the wages are higher.


  129. - Ron - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 3:55 pm:

    Illinois still has a higher state and local tax burden than Minnesota. And they don’t have a kleptocratic political class.


  130. - Ron - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 3:56 pm:

    What about Indiana, Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, Missouri, Iowa?

    All have lower taxes and growing populations.


  131. - Ron - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 3:56 pm:

    And much faster job growth.


  132. - Arizona Bob - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 3:57 pm:

    @ANON2

    =The income tax dropped sharply in 2015 when much of the temporary tax increase expired. But that didn’t attract lots of newcomers or keep others from leaving. If taxes are the main reason people migrate, then the tax cut should’ve had some effect=
    anyone paying attention knew that the Dems and RINOS would raise taxes again. It was just a matter of time. Those who are wise amongst you will understand that the tax rates will need to be raised to New York and California levels to fund the disastrous pension liabilities. That’s why professionals aren’t coming to Chicago and only businesses that can pack up and leave on short notice are coming in. Sad, but the Sword of Madigan, Pritzker and Cullerton is being held above the people of Illinois head by a very thin string…


  133. - wordslinger - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 3:58 pm:

    –and I moved TO Arizona.–

    Lot of people that retire do that, AB.

    AZ is in top 10 in % of over 65, IL is in the bottom 10.


  134. - Gruntled University Employee - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 4:03 pm:

    ==What about Indiana, Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, Missouri, Iowa?==

    They don’t have Madigan OR Rauner either. Leadership plays a big role in public confidence.


  135. - Arizona Bob - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 4:04 pm:

    @anon2

    “=== Important to note that, overall, non-metro-Chicago is driving Illinois population loss.===
    In other words, the red part of the State.”

    Yep. People with education, non-government workers and people who understand the root causes of the problems are going to “more Red” states like Arizona, Florida and Texas. They understand that the kleptocracy in Springfield and Chicago dominate tax policy and corruption, and real problem solvers and those who grow the economy outside of the government have no hope here. In Az our fear is that with so many Californians coming here that our politics will take a left turn to dysfunction like Illinois and Cali..


  136. - Gruntled University Employee - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 4:07 pm:

    Word,

    I’m 8 years away from retiring and the wife and I have no desire to spend our golden years in this climate.


  137. - Gruntled University Employee - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 4:08 pm:

    ==In Az our fear is that with so many Californians coming here that our politics will take a left turn to dysfunction like Illinois and Cali.. ==

    One can only dream.


  138. - Downstate - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 4:13 pm:

    Word,
    Why doesn’t Chicago, with their Democrat Party rule simply work towards implementing your party’s ideas for economic growth.
    1. Lobby the state GA for income tax for city workers and residents.
    2. Increase property taxes to cover all city pension deficits
    3. Require union membership for every employee in the city.
    4. Provide cradle to grave entitlements
    5. Provide sanctuary to every illegal citizen that requests it.

    Would love to see the “nirvana” you create. /s/


  139. - wordslinger - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 4:14 pm:

    Downstate, I won’t be baited.

    But you are a master baiter.


  140. - Robert the 1st - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 4:15 pm:

    There’s a term for Word’s nirvana; Venezuela.


  141. - wordslinger - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 4:16 pm:

    –There’s a term for Word’s nirvana; Venezuela.–

    How’d you land there? Be specific.

    Or is that some wicked burn you saw on the TV box?


  142. - Robert the 1st - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 4:19 pm:

    See Downstate’s 1 through 4. They, like every other nation on planet Earth don’t tolerate the immigration policies of your party.


  143. - wordslinger - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 4:22 pm:

    Robert, after your naptime, perhaps you and DS can show where I ever advocated any of those silly Strawmmen you built.

    You boys get cranky when you miss nap time. Better watch out, Santa Claus is coming to town.


  144. - Flyer - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 4:24 pm:

    The college kids who leave the state aren’t coming back - why would they?


  145. - Anonymous - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 4:25 pm:

    Robert, still waiting for you to explain the boom years 2010-2013.


  146. - Downstate - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 4:25 pm:

    Word,
    What of the items are not a part of the Democrat party platform? (I will grant you that #3 is an overstatement).


  147. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 4:27 pm:

    ===The college kids who leave the state aren’t coming back - why would they?===

    Family, jobs, Chicago and Chicagoland is the economic engine of the Midwest…

    Having them leave may lead to the opportunity they won’t come back, greater than if they stayed in-state, but it’s not a done deal…


  148. - 47th Ward - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 4:33 pm:

    Downstate, Wordslinger isn’t here to answer for the Democratic Party of Illinois. I am.

    And you left something off your list: #6 Downstate Toll Roads.

    We’ve had just about enough of you leeches taking our tax money to pay for roads nobody up here will ever use. We need that money to pay for cradle to grave entitlements and whatnot. We support your efforts to secede. You can be West Indiana, Eastern Misery, or Northern Kentucky for all I care.

    And please ask Santa for some English lessons for Christmas. I know your schools are terrible Downstate, but try to learn the difference between nouns and adjectives. Confusing these simple things makes you sound like a Fox News watching moron.


  149. - wordslinger - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 4:34 pm:

    – What of the items are not a part of the Democrat party platform? –

    Your writing is as dazzling as your arguments.

    Show some initiative and answer your own silly questions. You’re not entitled to bore me with your nonsense.


  150. - Postbot673 - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 4:41 pm:

    Population loss deniers are the worst.


  151. - Yellow Dog Democrat - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 4:41 pm:

    43 comments so far, Ron.

    Tell us how you really feel.


  152. - 47th Ward - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 4:50 pm:

    ===Population loss deniers are the worst.===

    Huh? 150 comments here and I’ve seen 0 comments denying that Illinois is losing population. What blog are your reading?


  153. - Nick Name - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 4:58 pm:

    Switch to decaf, Ron.


  154. - wordslinger - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 5:17 pm:

    –Looks like a lot of Democratic literature boasting of our 5th largest economy and how wealthy Illinois is will have to be reprinted.–

    From the updates, looks like they’re blaming it on Rauner. That’s what happens when you’re in charge.


  155. - Ron - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 5:42 pm:

    Downstate, illinois population loss would be catastrophic if Chicago we’re not part of the state. The economy would about the same as Mississippi too.


  156. - Ron - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 5:54 pm:

    People that deny losing population is bad are the worst.


  157. - Ron - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 5:56 pm:

    If Kennedy is right and we’re only losing net takers, I would not be as concerned.


  158. - Anonymous - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 8:32 pm:

    “”How did you go bankrupt?” Bill asked.

    “Two ways,” Mike said. “Gradually and then suddenly.”

    The Sun Also Rises - Hemminglway


  159. - cdog - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 9:50 pm:

    Well, that was entertaining. wow.

    I like the new labels.
    “Population loss deniers”
    “Death spiral deniers”

    And what is it about the noun “democrat” that makes democrats go nuts?


  160. - 47th Ward - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 10:22 pm:

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democrat_Party_(epithet)

    I can’t have a polite conversation with someone who insults me, intentionally or not. “Democrat” is a noun. “Democratic” is an adjective. Democrats belong to the Democratic Party. People who call it the Democrat Party aren’t Democrats, and it is usually spewed as if they are calling someone a dirty name.

    That’s what it is, cdog.


  161. - Robert the 1st - Wednesday, Dec 20, 17 @ 11:17 pm:

    Oh boy. I should have made popcorn to reread this. cdog, Downstate, and Ron have triggered a few regulars more than Obama ever did to the Tea Party.


  162. - Rabid - Thursday, Dec 21, 17 @ 4:42 am:

    the govenors election and reeletion is based on lies


  163. - Anonymous - Thursday, Dec 21, 17 @ 5:02 pm:

    Rich…all those folks that move to Indiana are still working in Ill. The South Shore RR is adding trains every year.


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* *** UPDATED x2 *** How independent is Madigan's new independent counsel?
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