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Poll: Raoul narrowly leads Quinn, Harold barely up

Wednesday, Feb 28, 2018

* From the Paul Simon Public Policy Institute…

In the Republican primary for Attorney General, Harvard Law graduate and Champaign-Urbana attorney Erika Harold, well known in Republican political circles, leads the lesser-known Gary Grasso, a DuPage County board member, 18 percent to 14 percent, with almost two-thirds (65 percent) undecided.

The Democratic primary for Attorney General is as crowded as the gubernatorial field, with eight candidates vying for the nomination. State Sen. Kwame Raoul of Chicago leads the pack with 22 percent of respondents, vs. former Gov. Pat Quinn, with 18 percent. None of the other candidates registers double-digit support, and the undecideds total 39 percent.

Biggest takeaway: Gov. Rauner needs to start giving Erika Harold some cash. Now.

* The only crosstabs included…

* These are registered voters, not likely voters, so be careful with this…

In the poll of 1,001 registered voters across Illinois, conducted February 19 through 25, the margin for error is plus or minus 3 percentage points. It is important to remember that among self-identified primary election voters, the margin is significantly wider: plus or minus 6 percentage points in the 259-voter sample of Republicans, and 4.5 percentage points in the sample of 472 Democrats.

- Posted by Rich Miller        

42 Comments
  1. - wordslinger - Wednesday, Feb 28, 18 @ 10:49 am:

    All that CNN exposure hasn’t done Mariotti any good.


  2. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Feb 28, 18 @ 10:52 am:

    Two biggest takeaway for me on the Dem side…

    Raoul should feel good he’s distancing himself in poll…

    … Quinn’s 25% downstate number is huge in a field this large.

    A snapshot of the feelings, may not be a good snapshot of the voters… but Raoul and Quinn should be happy.


  3. - Ron Burgundy - Wednesday, Feb 28, 18 @ 10:54 am:

    –Raoul should feel good he’s distancing himself in poll…–

    Needs to get after it downstate, though.


  4. - Arsenal - Wednesday, Feb 28, 18 @ 10:55 am:

    ==All that CNN exposure hasn’t done Mariotti any good.==

    Believe it’s MSNBC, but yes, an almost-nightly spot on the third-place news network isn’t worth much.


  5. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Feb 28, 18 @ 10:57 am:

    ===Needs to get after it downstate, though.===

    … which is why Quinn’s 25% downstate is the second takeaway.

    You’re on it. Agreed.


  6. - SAP - Wednesday, Feb 28, 18 @ 10:58 am:

    Erika Harold is a viable candidate in the general election and an ally of the Governor. Why hasn’t he dumped cash into her race?


  7. - vaguely - Wednesday, Feb 28, 18 @ 11:00 am:

    It appears that Drury is polling worse than anyone.


  8. - wordslinger - Wednesday, Feb 28, 18 @ 11:01 am:

    –Erika Harold is a viable candidate in the general election and an ally of the Governor. Why hasn’t he dumped cash into her race?–

    Same reason why the self-proclaimed head of and bankroller of the Illinois GOP hasn’t recruited or funded challengers to Preckwinkle or Berrios.

    He’s building a cult of personality, not a party.


  9. - Ron Burgundy - Wednesday, Feb 28, 18 @ 11:01 am:

    –Erika Harold is a viable candidate in the general election and an ally of the Governor. Why hasn’t he dumped cash into her race?–

    Probably thought they didn’t need to. Now they need to.


  10. - Fair and Balanced - Wednesday, Feb 28, 18 @ 11:04 am:

    After Quinn and Raoul, everyone in the AG’s race seems to be in a statistical tie due to the high margin of error. Looks like all of the candidates have a lot of ground to make up in the last 3 weeks. Anyone with the funds to advertise can win.


  11. - Christopher - Wednesday, Feb 28, 18 @ 11:05 am:

    So if one of Drury’s claims to fame is that he has opposed Madigan (unlike many others), that doesn’t seem to give him any traction whatsoever.


  12. - Anon - Wednesday, Feb 28, 18 @ 11:07 am:

    I wonder if Kwame recently overtook Quinn. I remember Rotering put out an add a week or two ago that went negative on Quinn and nobody else. Shocked that the Harold/Grasso race is so close… this poll should give Grasso the opportunity to fundraise and keep this thing competitive.


  13. - Arsenal - Wednesday, Feb 28, 18 @ 11:13 am:

    ==So if one of Drury’s claims to fame is that he has opposed Madigan (unlike many others), that doesn’t seem to give him any traction whatsoever.==

    While plenty of Dems don’t like Madigan, they don’t vote on that.


  14. - Boone's is Back - Wednesday, Feb 28, 18 @ 11:14 am:

    I would imagine that this has to help Raoul significantly in marshaling support. No one other than him and Quinn are in double digits.


  15. - don the legend - Wednesday, Feb 28, 18 @ 11:22 am:

    Wordslinger is right on when he says “He’s building a cult of personality, not a party”.

    The ILGOP has left SOS, Comptroller and Treasurer without a viable choice for their party. When have either of the two parties ever conceded 3 of 5 constitutional offices to the other party?

    Rauner is proving deadly for the ILGOP or what’s left of it.


  16. - Not It - Wednesday, Feb 28, 18 @ 11:27 am:

    I will never forgive Quinn for skipping his successor’s inauguration. No class whatsoever. The dude should just retire.


  17. - Thomas Zane Stepp - Wednesday, Feb 28, 18 @ 11:28 am:

    I don’t really see the Kwame appeal. He’s like any other cook county politician. Not really a lot of legal credentials when compared to the others.


  18. - Arsenal - Wednesday, Feb 28, 18 @ 11:33 am:

    ==When have either of the two parties ever conceded 3 of 5 constitutional offices to the other party?==

    2014, depending on what you think of Schimpf.


  19. - Steve Rogers - Wednesday, Feb 28, 18 @ 11:55 am:

    Really not sure what this poll tells me at all. Except that most people haven’t decided. 2/3 of Rs and 1/3 to 1/2 of Ds don’t know yet.


  20. - Ron - Wednesday, Feb 28, 18 @ 11:59 am:

    Already voted for Raoul.


  21. - Responsa - Wednesday, Feb 28, 18 @ 12:09 pm:

    Other than the meh ad we saw a few days ago Sharon Fairley seems MIA. Who is her supposed constituency, why is she running, and why has she not dropped out if this is remotely reflective of her support level? Can someone try to fill in the currents that underlie this run for those of us not in the know?


  22. - Ron Burgundy - Wednesday, Feb 28, 18 @ 12:22 pm:

    –why has she not dropped out–

    Everyone below the line on the table should be asking themselves that question.


  23. - Logan Listener - Wednesday, Feb 28, 18 @ 12:25 pm:

    I’ve often found myself disagreeing with the positions Raoul has taken over the years but he’s consistently impressed me with his dedication towards actually getting things done in Springfield and his willingness to work across the aisle.

    I’ll be sad to see him leave.

    But he’ll have my vote.


  24. - Last Bull Moose - Wednesday, Feb 28, 18 @ 12:35 pm:

    No inside knowledge here but the anti-Quinn ad is consistent with her trying to help Kwame. Plus she gets some name recognition.


  25. - Anonymous - Wednesday, Feb 28, 18 @ 12:47 pm:

    At least Quinn is even tempered. Haven’t we learned from Trump the danger of a leader with a short fuse?


  26. - Soccermom - Wednesday, Feb 28, 18 @ 12:53 pm:

    I’m shocked by Erika Harold’s numbers, to the point that I wonder how accurate this poll is.


  27. - Henry Francis - Wednesday, Feb 28, 18 @ 1:00 pm:

    Does Qunn have any sort of campaign organization? Does he have any dough (any left over from 2013)? It seems like he has not done much to campaign. Kwame has tv ads. What does Quinn have? Is the strategy just to lay low, as the bigger profile he creates would mostly remind people why they didn’t vote for him 4 years ago?

    As Governor he worked to make the will of the people the law of the land. As Attorney General he will continue that work and enforce the law of the land. /s


  28. - Soccermom - Wednesday, Feb 28, 18 @ 1:13 pm:

    This is troubling news for Ruiz. (from the news release on the Simon Institute website)

    “A Spanish language version of the questionnaire and a
    Spanish-speaking interviewer were made available.”


  29. - Anon0091 - Wednesday, Feb 28, 18 @ 1:30 pm:

    “I’m shocked by Erika Harold’s numbers, to the point that I wonder how accurate this poll is.”

    259 GOP voters is not a real sample. It’s still pretty shocking that she’s no higher but then again she’s done nothing to communicate with the public writ large.


  30. - illini - Wednesday, Feb 28, 18 @ 1:33 pm:

    Several thoughts or observations =

    This race is being fought in Chicago, but may well be decided by the downstate votes. The fact that Kwame and PQ are leading comes as no surprise.

    Kwame does have a distinct money advantage and the blessing of influential backers, groups and individuals.

    Being a high profile member of the GA could be a disadvantage and does not necessarily qualify one to be the AG.

    All candidates will likely oppose most of the Trump/DOJ initiatives.

    All have impressive resumes, but many are obviously not able to gain traction with the voters and that is unfortunate.

    In some ways, this race is more important that the Governors race.


  31. - Soccermom - Wednesday, Feb 28, 18 @ 2:37 pm:

    It probably is worth noting that the pollster asked to talk to the youngest registered voter in the home. That, combined with sample of registered voters (as opposed to likelys) means this group may skew younger than the actual electorate. If that’s the case, Quinn should outperform.


  32. - Ron - Wednesday, Feb 28, 18 @ 3:10 pm:

    Soccermom, if true this poll is not very useful.


  33. - Last Bull Moose - Wednesday, Feb 28, 18 @ 3:25 pm:

    Thanks Soccermom. It’s like having a weapon that shoots low and to the right. I can adjust.


  34. - Not amused - Wednesday, Feb 28, 18 @ 3:31 pm:

    Oh, geez. Not a Raoul fan but absolutely anti-Quinn..

    How people can vote for Quinn to be legal counsel for the state when he made some slimy appointments at the end of his term as governor, I don’t know.


  35. - Anon - Wednesday, Feb 28, 18 @ 3:32 pm:

    Vaguely - perhaps they’ve all met him.


  36. - orzo - Wednesday, Feb 28, 18 @ 3:37 pm:

    Can’t see too many folks throwing money at the “below the line” people. Which means they are toast. Even if there are some odd numbers in this poll, it probably has the top four identified accurately (though the order could still change)


  37. - Anonymous - Wednesday, Feb 28, 18 @ 5:56 pm:

    Outside of Raoul and Quinn, the others are tied. It’s unclear what the line means. Raoul has already spent $2 million on TV. If any of the others have close to that, they can win. A bjg “if.”


  38. - DarkHorse - Wednesday, Feb 28, 18 @ 6:04 pm:

    On the GOP side: Grasso has practiced law for almost 40 years. A lot of people in that position, they may not be “rich”, but they might have an ability to throw in 500k at the end. If Grasso has that money, and willing to risk it, he’s in contention.

    On the Dem side: Fairley has already put in $420k of her own money. Somehow I feel like she has the ability to put in another couple hundred thousand on her own. If so, maybe she has a shot.


  39. - Anonymous - Wednesday, Feb 28, 18 @ 6:25 pm:

    $600,000 ain’t gonna do it for Fairley or any of the others. In a poll skewed towards young white women, Rotering only has 5%, and she’s spent over $400,000 on TV. Ruiz has spent about the same, and even with a Spanish-speaking pollster only has 4%. They are the only ones, besides Raoul, who had been on TV over a week before the poll was conducted. Not good news for them.


  40. - Real - Wednesday, Feb 28, 18 @ 6:53 pm:

    Erika Harold is a viable candidate in the general election and an ally of the Governor. Why hasn’t he dumped cash into her race

    -Rauner was using Harold to go against Lisa Madigan.. Since she dropped out it seems he knows it’s an uphil battle to win against someone like Kwame Raoul or any other anti Trump AG candidate.


  41. - Real - Wednesday, Feb 28, 18 @ 6:56 pm:

    I will never forgive Quinn for skipping his successor’s inauguration. No class whatsoever. The dude should just retire

    -Attend your successors inauguration because it just happens to be a rich guy that decided to buy an election? You have no brain cells among many other things.


  42. - Last Bull Moose - Wednesday, Feb 28, 18 @ 7:09 pm:

    The thought of Erika Harold as the only state wide Republican office holder is strange. It would be better than Rauner.

    Depending on who the Democrats nominate, I might have to vote for her for the sheer fun of watching her for four years.


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