27 Comments - Chris Widger - Thursday, Mar 1, 18 @ 10:51 am: I’m not sure why “a majority of current seniors have received acceptance offers from at least one college” is a refutation of “zero percent of kids in Cairo are college-ready.” Kennedy’s statement is a bit dumb, but clearly hyperbole. - Anon0091 - Thursday, Mar 1, 18 @ 10:54 am: How would any responsible campaign not take advantage of that? - Retired Educator - Thursday, Mar 1, 18 @ 10:55 am: Kennedy has had a free ride up till now. I guess the constant attacks fro Kennedy on Pritzker has finally hit a nerve. I think the payback is about to happen. - 47th Ward - Thursday, Mar 1, 18 @ 10:56 am: First it was Biss. Now it’s time to put a ceiling on Kennedy’s rise in the polls. It’s like Whack-a-Mole but with negative TV ads instead of soft mallets. - Arsenal - Thursday, Mar 1, 18 @ 10:56 am: ==Kennedy has had a free ride up till now.== And yet, he’s dropped about 20 points in the polls. I’ll agree that no one else has really attacked him, though. Almost all of that damage has been self-inflicted. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Mar 1, 18 @ 10:59 am: The Pritzker Crew at times reminds me of that student who forgets to turn in an assignment or… They are now trying to run Skyhook in the last 19 days, while they “let” Pritzker get under water while having tens of millions of dollars to swamp Kennedy and Biss weeks and months ago and put Rauner in his heels. You can’t have all the resources that the Pritzker Crew has and be a reactionary campaign. To use a football metaphor… You can’t expect to play prevent defense the *entire* game and expect to win. Rarely does it turn out well. It’s a bizarre campaign. - Almost the Weekend - Thursday, Mar 1, 18 @ 11:01 am: We are running a positive campaign with the least offensive attacks on our opponents. - Red fish blue fish - Thursday, Mar 1, 18 @ 11:15 am: Poor angle of attack. Kennedy may have misspoken, but his intuition is correct. A matriculation rate just under 60% is nothing to be proud of. The students of cairo deserve better. - Last Bull Moose - Thursday, Mar 1, 18 @ 11:28 am: Biss and Kennedy need to decide which is more important, their egos or stopping a Madigan ally from being governor. Brady and Dillard helped give us Rauner. Look an learn. - Seats - Thursday, Mar 1, 18 @ 11:29 am: OW - any possibility that they let Kennedy off the hook for so long for fear he’d drop out of the race if they attacked him too hard too early? As it seems JB is only in real danger if Biss or Kennedy drop out of the race. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Mar 1, 18 @ 11:38 am: ===…any possibility that they let Kennedy off the hook for so long for fear he’d drop out of the race if they attacked him too hard too early?=== I looked at the realities like this… Biss was giving up his Senate seat, he was always in. Kennedy’s own hubris, once he was on the ballot would prevent him from dropping out. The difference between Kennedy and Bill Daley was that petition drive and securing a place in the ballot. Also, I dunno if a smart campaign looks at having nearly $60 million to spend to define, swamp, control messaging on their terms and think… a passive “don’t rock the boat”, don’t take control of the race as a smart strategy. The good always has been the planned strategic rollouts, the rapid response “at times”… …but the idea of not controlling the messaging 24/7 or releasing polling in concert in the swamping of these guys (parts of Skyhook), then using a failed governor to define yourself… It’s a bizarre campaign. The overall statewide ground game is the ace in the hole, and that’s one serious ace to have. - Anon324 - Thursday, Mar 1, 18 @ 11:43 am: ==Poor angle of attack. Kennedy may have misspoken, but his intuition is correct. A matriculation rate just under 60% is nothing to be proud of. The students of cairo deserve better== Kennedy was on the right track, but didn’t connect the dots. When you don’t, you leave an easily exploitable hole, and it’s one the campaign should have fixed long ago instead of just using data as the be all end all talking point as if it speaks for itself. A far better response: “Everyone acknowledges that standardized tests are not the sole measure of how a school is performing, but it is the most readily available. And the fact of the matter is none of the standardized test scores in Cairo meet the state average. It’s not the fault of the teachers or students. The funding model has done a disservice to Cairo and similar districts throughout the state that continue to be deprived of the resources those teachers and students deserve to reach their potential. The change in the funding model passed over Rauner’s veto is a step in the right direction, but the continued reliance on property tax revenue will continue to shortchange Cairo and their students. It needs to change, and when I’m governor, it will change.” - Arsenal - Thursday, Mar 1, 18 @ 11:45 am: ==Kennedy’s own hubris, once he was on the ballot would prevent him from dropping out. == Not sure that was foreseeable. Before the campaign shake-up that gave his son a bigger role, there was near-constant chatter that Kennedy was poised to drop out, and that wasn’t inconsistent with his previous near-runs. One of the big reasons everyone waited so long to go negative was that everyone’s afraid of another Hillary/Bernie rift (Although it should be noted that Hillary never actually aired a negative ad against Bernie). - 47th Ward - Thursday, Mar 1, 18 @ 11:46 am: ===…but the idea of not controlling the messaging 24/7 or releasing polling in concert in the swamping of these guys (parts of Skyhook), then using a failed governor to define yourself…=== Good points and fair criticism Willy. But remember, Pritzker is a Democrat. We don’t play like the Republicans. I think it has something to do with having a sense of shame that Pritzker isn’t trying to create his own reality a la Rauner (and Trump). It’s a different approach and others with $60 million to spend would probably do it differently. But unlike Rauner’s first run for office, Pritzker is being attacked by the incumbent AND two primary opponents. It’s a three-front war where Pritzker still needs to build name ID and introduce himself to voters. Given all of that, I think Team Pritzker is running a great campaign. - wordslinger - Thursday, Mar 1, 18 @ 11:52 am: –The Better Government Association rated Kennedy’s claim that “zero percent of kids in Cairo are college-ready” as false.– Not only is that preposterous statement false, but it’s a nasty general insult on the folks struggling to make a go of it down there under tough circumstances. From my reading over the years, I don’t think any of the born-on-third-base generation of Kennedy’s large, public, extended family were summa cum laude. They sure as heck don’t show it. - OurMagician - Thursday, Mar 1, 18 @ 12:00 pm: The flashy U of I numbers in the Pritzker ad look good but digging deeper shows the salaries quoted are in the lower half of the Big 10. Pritzker and Rauner are cut from the same cloth, swamp their opponents with sort of factual information and try and win. https://youtu.be/-MCytLRuGG0 - Crazy Like a Fox - Thursday, Mar 1, 18 @ 1:09 pm: == It’s a three-front war where Pritzker still needs to build name ID and introduce himself to voters.== $50 million should be enough to build name ID and introduce himself to voters. The problem for Pritzker is voters know him and don’t exactly love him. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Mar 1, 18 @ 1:11 pm: ===Good points and fair criticism Willy. But remember, Pritzker is a Democrat.=== Appreciate the kind words. Noted on the party affiliation and how we differ. ===I think it has something to do with having a sense of shame that Pritzker isn’t trying to create his own reality a la Rauner (and Trump). It’s a different approach and others with $60 million to spend would probably do it differently.=== Then why spend the $60 million in the Primary? Pritzker was a Billionaire before this started, will be a Billionaire after too. It’s puzzling how a Crew with $60 million to use finds itself being out-messaged in the negative, when they had every resource and then some to swamp and define his opponents. Modesty is tough to sell me because I’m constantly reminded that Dems are netter after bruising primaries to close ranks. ===But unlike Rauner’s first run for office, Pritzker is being attacked by the incumbent AND two primary opponents. It’s a three-front war where Pritzker still needs to build name ID and introduce himself to voters.=== With great respect you know I have for you… “Rauner’s first run for office, Rauner attacked the incumbent AND three primary opponents. It was a four-front war where Rauner still needed to build name ID and introduce himself to voters.” … and the Superstars created Skyhook. There’s a great deal that impressed me with the Pritzker Crew and Anne Caprara and that Crew, there are many things they do exceptionally well, but it’s bizarre how they’ve allowed others to bake them be the Crew to dance to a tune when Rauner all but wrote the battle plan to a similar set of variables. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Mar 1, 18 @ 1:16 pm: ===Not sure that was foreseeable. Before the campaign shake-up that gave his son a bigger role, there was near-constant chatter that Kennedy was poised to drop out, and that wasn’t inconsistent with his previous near-runs.=== Respectfully, “it’s the same until it wasn’t” Being actually on the ballot, Daley never got that far, neither did Kennedy until now. Kennedy was also first to break the caps, with no way to sustain against Pritzker or Rauner. Hubris of finally getting on a ballot and breaking the caps… how can Kennedy walk away? Once Kennedy got on the ballot, bad campaign problems or not… you carry him enough, but you define him more, and you control the messsge with greater purpose. It’s bizarre. - 47th Ward - Thursday, Mar 1, 18 @ 1:19 pm: Willy, if there was a formula everyone would use it. There isn’t. You’ve made some good points, and I’m not really disagreeing with you much. Don’t forget that Rauner had the Tribune, the Commercial Club, and all of the anti-union, anti-public pension types on his side, plus IPI (or is that redundant?). Pritzker doesn’t have that infrastructure and the DPI is predictably AWOL, while DGA is neutral. Political campaigns are like snowflakes: no two are the same. - Anon312 - Thursday, Mar 1, 18 @ 1:21 pm: The ACT scores do actually show a zero percent college readiness from those who took the test. Maybe that’s not the full picture, but it’s not a pretty one anyways. To say Kennedy is “badmouthing” them when he’s actually campaigning to fund the system and give them even more opportunity seems incredibly disingenuous. More dirty politics from a “positive” campaign. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Mar 1, 18 @ 1:30 pm: ===… if there was a formula everyone would use it. There isn’t.=== Yep. Totally agree. I’ve also seen campaigns, maybe you have, where the incumbent is vulnerable to the very same campaign they ran to win in the first place. It happens. And I do appreciate, sincerely, that you aren’t disagreeing with me as you are saying, then I hope you can understand why I found this all bizarre. ===Pritzker doesn’t have that infrastructure and the DPI is predictably AWOL, while DGA is neutral.=== Rauner built the infrastructure before the primary that didn’t exist as he set it up, and the after the primary made it the GOP infrastructure. Isn’t that what Pritzker is doing now too, like Rauner did and the same challenges too? ===Don’t forget that Rauner had the Tribune, the Commercial Club, and all of the anti-union, anti-public pension types on his side, plus IPI=== The vertical integration Rauner has/d was part of their game plan that Pritzker, as a Dem wouldn’t necessarily have, but Pritzker does have a vast majority of organized labor that can be utilized for messaging and bodies, something Rauner never had, so there’s a difference too. ===(or is that redundant?)=== That’s some funny stuff. The infrastructure in the end might be the single most important of all the “important” things, and Pritzker has pocket aces on that in the Primary. - olddog - Thursday, Mar 1, 18 @ 1:46 pm: Sounds like he’s been misinterpreting the same data that led him to proclaim last year that at Lanphier and Southeast high schools in Springfield, “less than 10 percent of the kids who graduate … are ready to go on to a university, enter a trade school, go to community college, or enter the workforce without remedial education. Ninety percent of those kids, therefore, are going to be doomed to a life of economic oppression.” I think that was based on flawed PARCC test data, but wherever he got the idea, he was dead wrong and he lost my vote — and it was only a couple of days after he announced. http://www.sj-r.com/opinion/20170211/schoenburg-where-is-moral-outrage-for-illinois-high-schools-kennedy-asks - Arsenal - Thursday, Mar 1, 18 @ 2:31 pm: ==The problem for Pritzker is voters know him and don’t exactly love him.== So what’s everyone else’s problem since he’s still leading them? - Thomas Paine - Thursday, Mar 1, 18 @ 3:45 pm: === Then why spend the $60 million in the Primary? === I’m gonna go with “because he can.” Let’s be brutally honest, there is a dminishing rate of return in campaign spending, like nearly all advertising. Hardly any campaign consultant will ever admit it. the return on primary spending early on in the race is even smaller. You are trying to reach a subsegment of a segment of the viewers/listeners, at a time when they are not paying attention to political candidates because election day seems so. far. away. It was Joe Kennedy who said “Don’t buy me a landslide”, or something like that, right? Pritzker could have spent $20 million and he’d likely be a 25% now. People would have the same criticism: he spent all that money, he is only winning by a little bit. But for Pritzker, another $30 million is no big deal for something he is passionate about. And spending $20 million and losing would be disasterous. Plus, this IS NOT just marketing, this is politics. And so of course there is some game theory here. Pritzker is letting everyone know early on that he is “all in” as they say in poker. That means more endorsements. That helps chill his opponents’ fundraising. And it takes away what was Bruce Rauner’s primary rallying cry in 2014, when HE argued he was the right choice to lead the GOP because he would personally ensure they were never outspent again. There is some deep game theory going on here. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Mar 1, 18 @ 3:55 pm: ===I’m gonna go with “because he can.”=== … and they’re under water, but you seem to forgot that. ===Pritzker could have spent $20 million and he’d likely be a 25% now.=== … but he didn’t, because, what did you say.., “because he can” So, the argument is, spending $60 million, a choice, and still under water, but we don’t know if he spent only $20 million, were gonna guess Pritzker sits at 25%, given all the negative ads, and the whole underwater thingy you’re ignoring? Ok. ===People would have the same criticism: he spent all that money, he is only winning by a little bit.=== Some may. My question has been not going after Rauner, Biss and Kennedy with more vigor, but if you’d like to make about your question and not my question, that’s cool. ===Pritzker is letting everyone know early on that he is “all in” as they say in poker. That means more endorsements. That helps chill his opponents’ fundraising. And it takes away what was Bruce Rauner’s primary rallying cry in 2014, when HE argued he was the right choice to lead the GOP because he would personally ensure they were never outspent again.=== … and yet, it was the Pritzker Crew who wouldn’t devulge polling that could’ve shown a lead or being the front runner, while seemingly picking up all these endorsements and spending all these monies. Yep. It’s bizzare when you look at it that way too. - Arsenal - Thursday, Mar 1, 18 @ 4:04 pm: ==And so of course there is some game theory here.== And not only Game Theory. Another thing to be honest about here is that “The Democratic Party of Illinois” is basically just a name on some letterhead. There’s no centralized structure of staff. Madigan only cares about House Dems. JB’s been up front that he wants to fill in that gap, and he has to do it fast. That costs money, too. Like everything else in life, you got fast, you got cheap, and you got good. You can only pick two. Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.