* According to the Paul Simon Public Policy Institute’s latest poll, the federal tax reform law isn’t yet helping the Republicans. “Do you support or oppose the tax reform plan passed last December by the Republican Congressional majorities?”…
* “Does your view on tax reform make you more or less likely to vote for Republican Congressional candidates in November?”…
* From the Institute’s press release…
Well over a majority, 53% of Illinois voters say they opposed the tax cut with 15% strongly opposed and 38% who opposed and 2% who said “neither”. The state is deeply polarized on this issue with 80% of Democrats opposed while 75% of Republicans supported the tax cuts. Independents were in the middle with 36% who supported and 48% who opposed the cuts.
Central city Chicago voters opposed the tax cuts by a margin of 63% who opposed and 28% who supported. Downstate voters were more closely divided over the tax cuts with 40% who supported and 41% who opposed. 33% of suburban Chicago and the collar counties voters supported and 55% opposed the tax cuts.
Illinois voters were asked whether the tax cuts would make them more or less likely to vote for Republican congressional candidates in November. 33% of the respondents said the tax cuts would make them more likely to vote Republican in the fall while 56% said less likely with 6% choosing neither.
85% of Democrats said less likely; 80% of Republicans said more likely while 29% of Independents said more likely and 49% said less likely.
Downstate voters chose more likely over less likely by a margin of 48% to 42%. Chicago voters chose less likely by 70% to 19%. Suburban Chicago and the collar counties voters chose less likely over more likely by a margin of 58% to 31%.
The question of which party “best represents your interest in the U. S. Congress” produced a solid advantage for the Democrats. 43% of the respondents overall chose the Democrats; 28% chose the Republicans while 2% chose the Green Party, 6% the Libertarians, and 12% chose some other party.
40% of downstate chose the Republicans and 31% chose the Democrats while 2% chose the Greens and 7% the Libertarians. In Chicago, 55% favored the Democrats and 15% favored the Republicans. 6% took the Libertarians and 3% the Greens in Chicago. 45% of Chicago suburban and collar counties voters chose the Democrats and 25% the Republicans while 2% chose the Greens and 5% the Libertarians.
Keep in mind that these are registered voters, not likely voters. And more men were polled than women. Both of those things are not at all optimal.
The margin of error of the entire sample of 1,001 voters is plus or minus 3.1 percentage points. […]
Live telephone interviews were conducted by Customer Research International of San Marcos, Texas using the random digit dialing method. The telephone sample was provided to Customer Research International by Scientific Telephone Samples. Potential interviewees were screened based on whether they were registered voters and quotas based on area code and sex (<60% female). The sample obtained 51% male and 49% female respondents. Interviewers asked to speak to the youngest registered voter at home at the time of the call. Cell phone interviews accounted for 60 percent of the sample. A Spanish language version of the questionnaire and a Spanish-speaking interviewer were made available.
Field work was conducted from February 19 through February 25. No auto-dial or “robo” polling is included. Customer Research International reports no Illinois political clients. The survey was paid for with non-tax dollars from the Institute’s endowment fund. The data were not weighted in any way. Crosstabs for the referenced questions will be on the Institute’s polling web site, simonpoll.org.