So why don’t they just release their poll numbers? Otherwise it just sounds like the typical play of a losing candidate trying to inflate their chances late to encourage supporters to still go to the polls
I have heard there are many Republicans in my area who are going to vote for Ives over Rauner. They want to send a message to the Gov. especially about abortion. A couple told me that they expect Rauner will win but they want to make it as close as possible. My response was you have a right to vote as you see fit, but I doubt you are going to change Rauner.
It will be interesting to see what the final numbers are for GOP/Dem primary ballots cast in Illinois.
Got to think that lower GOP turnout hurts Rauner as soft/moderate Republicans pull Dem ballots where there is more perceived action in the gov and AG primaries and the hard core GOP base may go with Ives due to her purity.
This wouldn’t surprise me. This is shaping up as a race for the base, and the base isn’t happy with the Governor. Can’t know what’s happening in other areas, but she’s worked hard downstate and she’s got some solid support in DuPage and Kane.
- Pot calling kettle - Tuesday, Mar 13, 18 @ 1:12 pm:
If she were that close, wouldn’t Uihlein kick in some $$$ to push her over the top? Or, perhaps, he just wanted to knock Rauner down but not out.
HGF, that’s a pretty good take, and Ives’ best hope.
It would have been interesting if that Uihlein money could have gone to a real pro with a good track record, rather than be contingent on handing it over to Proft.
- Pot calling kettle - Tuesday, Mar 13, 18 @ 1:14 pm:
It’s also tricky when you consider the Trump voters who don’t have a voting history the pollsters can use to weight them. Will they show up at the polls? IF so, it seems they are unlikely to support Rauner.
Pck, In a number of polls I’ve seen, 18-22% of GOP primary voters are self identifying as Trump voters. Could be they’re easier to get to participate. Tea Party self identifiers are more participatory in polls than their final numbers suggest; 17-19% on a series of polls in Kane/DuPage.
===Is Ives’ number spiking up towards Rauner’s — or is the Rauner number plunging down towards Ives?===
More of the first than the second, but both are occurring. Ives seemed to hit a hurdle. Rauner seemed to hit a wall. Undecideds are trying to rationalize their vote for Ives I believe. Many have already rationalized that they can’t support the Governor. It’s simply amazing how few signs he has up in DuPage and Kane. Last time his presence was very strong. You rarely come across one now. PCs aren’t grabbing them from headquarters either. This could be a surprise, but it’s less of a shock with each passing day.
For a campaign that started with Ives being a “fringe” candidate, to running the completely false Madigan/Ives ad, I wouldn’t be surprised if this primary comes down to the thousands of votes.
- Pot calling kettle - Tuesday, Mar 13, 18 @ 1:30 pm:
==so show me the poll==
I would guess the weighted polls (based on traditional filters) show Ives behind by more than 10%, but the Ives and Rauner camps probably have other models that show Ives closer than 10%. They won’t show those polls because the models are iffy at best and include folks with little to no track record of showing up for the Primary. That’s my guess.
Gotta love a contested primary. Bruce. Your gonna get smoked in the general. You might be able to smoothe things over with some Chicago area progressives with this blame Madigan theme, but us sophisticated dpwnsyate cpnservative independents wont. We’ll be staying at home.
I voted early yesterday and voted for Ives. I’m as mainstream GOP as you can get and running against Rauner is the only way Ives could ever get my vote for anything. But being part of the Anybody But Rauner club means I’m part of the Ives surge.
Assuming it’s a serious question. So, Tea Party, Trump Republicans, Traditional Republicans, Moderate Republicans, Independents (Surprising number of people who self identify as Independents who’ve never pulled anything but an R ballot)
To your second question; the polling samples are composed of whomever actually answers the phone. Some groups are more likely to be polled than others. It’s been very difficult to get enough women in these things to replicate their actual participation level in elections.