Capitol Fax.com - Your Illinois News Radar » Fun with numbers
SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax      Advertise Here      About     Exclusive Subscriber Content     Updated Posts    Contact Rich Miller
CapitolFax.com
To subscribe to Capitol Fax, click here.
Fun with numbers

Tuesday, Jul 31, 2018 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Greg Hinz

One study released each month is based on a survey of households. Known as the current population survey, it’s best known as being the basis for the unemployment rates that come out 12 times a year. The study also includes figures on local employment, and in the case of metropolitan Chicago the news is bad.

Specifically, the latest monthly survey indicated that compared to a year ago—click on Chicago-Naperville-Arlington Heights seasonally adjusted data to get an Excel file containing the numbers—the metro area has lost jobs, with employment dipping from an estimated 3,594,100 to 3,589,700. Given national growth of about 1.5 percent in that period, the drop here is awful.

However, BLS does another report each month that IDES uses to compile its metro employment report. In June, according to that report, employment in the Chicago-Naperville-Arlington Heights area grew 42,300, almost 1.2 percent, to 3.829 million.

So, Chicago lost 4,000-plus jobs. Or it gained more than 42,000. Both can’t be right, can they? […]

A BLS spokesman emphasizes that the household survey uses a significantly smaller sample than the employer survey, so its margin of error is larger. With a current margin of error in metro Chicago of plus or minus 63,000, the finding that the region lost more than 4,000 jobs is compatible with the region also being found to have gained 42,000 jobs.

Emphasis added.

       

15 Comments
  1. - wordslinger - Tuesday, Jul 31, 18 @ 9:55 am:

    Yes. The base is rather large. And monthly numbers are rather a tiny snapshot.

    Monthly numbers are just fuel for the tronclodytes to set their hair on fire, when it suits their agenda.


  2. - 47th Ward - Tuesday, Jul 31, 18 @ 9:56 am:

    ===the finding that the region lost more than 4,000 jobs is compatible with the region also being found to have gained 42,000 jobs.===

    Oh, OK. So is this good news or terrible news?


  3. - Texas Red - Tuesday, Jul 31, 18 @ 10:09 am:

    ” With a current margin of error in metro Chicago of plus or minus 63,000, the finding that the region lost more than 4,000 jobs is compatible with the region also being found to have gained 42,000 jobs”

    Hence the saying “close enough for Government work” - which in an older age actually meant high attention to detail!


  4. - Stuntman Bob's Brother - Tuesday, Jul 31, 18 @ 10:17 am:

    Would an equally, or even more useful measurement be “total payroll dollars”? It seems like that would better capture economic activity better than the number of jobs alone. Not sure how that could be tracked accurately, unless the IRS could break out withholding taxes or something - as shown in the post, statistical sampling is a SWAG.


  5. - wordslinger - Tuesday, Jul 31, 18 @ 10:24 am:

    –Hence the saying “close enough for Government work” –

    Dude, the base they’re working with is 3.6 million.

    What do you want, the government to install a computer chip in everyone to track their every movement?


  6. - Precinct Captain - Tuesday, Jul 31, 18 @ 10:32 am:

    wordslinger - Tuesday, Jul 31, 18 @ 10:24 am

    That answer is probably yes, if the targets are black or brown


  7. - DuPage - Tuesday, Jul 31, 18 @ 10:38 am:

    Some workers are keeping a low profile. They fear being hunted down by Trump/ICE, and being torn away from their families.


  8. - Da Big Bad Wolf - Tuesday, Jul 31, 18 @ 10:39 am:

    The base is more like nine and a half million. The MOE of 63,000 is pretty good considering. You can’t have statistics without MOE. It has nothing to do with attention to detail or government work.


  9. - Annonin' - Tuesday, Jul 31, 18 @ 11:05 am:

    Survey…a lot like sample size in pollin’ — not a hard count


  10. - NoGifts - Tuesday, Jul 31, 18 @ 11:10 am:

    And I guess it makes me wonder what is “a job.” If two part time positions are combined into a full time position, is it two jobs then one job? Or is the job a job no matter how many people fill it? Is it just the count of people who say they have a job * the number of jobs they go to? If the population survey is designed to count the unemployment rate, is it a good survey for also counting the number of jobs? Maybe we are just abusing the data.


  11. - Archpundit - Tuesday, Jul 31, 18 @ 11:17 am:

    BLS is one of the most accurate and reliable government agencies worldwide. They are the standard. As mentioned by other having an MOE is part of that accuracy and reliability.

    Slagging on government agencies for being transparent in their processes is both wrong and dumb.

    If you don’t understand, learn.


  12. - Archpundit - Tuesday, Jul 31, 18 @ 11:19 am:

    —–And I guess it makes me wonder what is “a job.”

    They have definitions and are quite good at counting whether jobs are part or full time, but also looking at underemployment, etc. The above is just a small description of one aspect of the survey.


  13. - wordslinger - Tuesday, Jul 31, 18 @ 11:26 am:

    –The base is more like nine and a half million–

    Employed base. “….with employment dipping from an estimated 3,594,100 to 3,589,700.”


  14. - NoGifts - Tuesday, Jul 31, 18 @ 11:26 am:

    I’m just saying looking at two different data sources and comparing their totals is not helpful because the surveys have different purposes and likely have different definitions. So the answer is probably “yes, they can both be right.”


  15. - EconLady - Tuesday, Jul 31, 18 @ 4:10 pm:

    Statistics is an actual science. The findings from a statistical analysis are not pronouncements. They are rigorous best guesses.


Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.


* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Update to today’s edition
* Uber’s Local Partnership = Stress-Free Travel For Paratransit Riders
* IEA releases member poll, with eye on major pension upgrade
* Finally, a CTU fiscal proposal that doesn't involve magic beans
* Go read the rest
* As lawsuits and strike threats fly, Pritzker calls on Stellantis to live up to its commitments on Belvidere plant
* Today's quotable: George McCaskey
* Buried nugget and magic beans
* Open thread
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Supplement to today’s edition and some campaign stuff
* SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - Today's edition of Capitol Fax (use all CAPS in password)
* Live coverage
* Selected press releases (Live updates)
* Yesterday's stories

Support CapitolFax.com
Visit our advertisers...

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............

...............


Loading


Main Menu
Home
Illinois
YouTube
Pundit rankings
Obama
Subscriber Content
Durbin
Burris
Blagojevich Trial
Advertising
Updated Posts
Polls

Archives
October 2024
September 2024
August 2024
July 2024
June 2024
May 2024
April 2024
March 2024
February 2024
January 2024
December 2023
November 2023
October 2023
September 2023
August 2023
July 2023
June 2023
May 2023
April 2023
March 2023
February 2023
January 2023
December 2022
November 2022
October 2022
September 2022
August 2022
July 2022
June 2022
May 2022
April 2022
March 2022
February 2022
January 2022
December 2021
November 2021
October 2021
September 2021
August 2021
July 2021
June 2021
May 2021
April 2021
March 2021
February 2021
January 2021
December 2020
November 2020
October 2020
September 2020
August 2020
July 2020
June 2020
May 2020
April 2020
March 2020
February 2020
January 2020
December 2019
November 2019
October 2019
September 2019
August 2019
July 2019
June 2019
May 2019
April 2019
March 2019
February 2019
January 2019
December 2018
November 2018
October 2018
September 2018
August 2018
July 2018
June 2018
May 2018
April 2018
March 2018
February 2018
January 2018
December 2017
November 2017
October 2017
September 2017
August 2017
July 2017
June 2017
May 2017
April 2017
March 2017
February 2017
January 2017
December 2016
November 2016
October 2016
September 2016
August 2016
July 2016
June 2016
May 2016
April 2016
March 2016
February 2016
January 2016
December 2015
November 2015
October 2015
September 2015
August 2015
July 2015
June 2015
May 2015
April 2015
March 2015
February 2015
January 2015
December 2014
November 2014
October 2014
September 2014
August 2014
July 2014
June 2014
May 2014
April 2014
March 2014
February 2014
January 2014
December 2013
November 2013
October 2013
September 2013
August 2013
July 2013
June 2013
May 2013
April 2013
March 2013
February 2013
January 2013
December 2012
November 2012
October 2012
September 2012
August 2012
July 2012
June 2012
May 2012
April 2012
March 2012
February 2012
January 2012
December 2011
November 2011
October 2011
September 2011
August 2011
July 2011
June 2011
May 2011
April 2011
March 2011
February 2011
January 2011
December 2010
November 2010
October 2010
September 2010
August 2010
July 2010
June 2010
May 2010
April 2010
March 2010
February 2010
January 2010
December 2009
November 2009
October 2009
September 2009
August 2009
July 2009
June 2009
May 2009
April 2009
March 2009
February 2009
January 2009
December 2008
November 2008
October 2008
September 2008
August 2008
July 2008
June 2008
May 2008
April 2008
March 2008
February 2008
January 2008
December 2007
November 2007
October 2007
September 2007
August 2007
July 2007
June 2007
May 2007
April 2007
March 2007
February 2007
January 2007
December 2006
November 2006
October 2006
September 2006
August 2006
July 2006
June 2006
May 2006
April 2006
March 2006
February 2006
January 2006
December 2005
April 2005
March 2005
February 2005
January 2005
December 2004
November 2004
October 2004

Blog*Spot Archives
November 2005
October 2005
September 2005
August 2005
July 2005
June 2005
May 2005

Syndication

RSS Feed 2.0
Comments RSS 2.0




Hosted by MCS SUBSCRIBE to Capitol Fax Advertise Here Mobile Version Contact Rich Miller