Our two states
Friday, Nov 9, 2018 - Posted by Rich Miller
* Ben Yount…
Professor John Jackson with the Paul Simon Public Policy Institute at Southern Illinois University said on Tuesday that change flipped the state’s political balance.
Jackson said that southern Illinois cemented itself as a Republican stronghold, while the Chicago suburbs became the new power base for Democrats.
“DuPage County was the real heart of the Republican Party,” Jackson said. “The suburbs now are where elections are won and lost statewide, and they’ve been increasing trending toward the blue. I would rate them as purple.” […]
“I think there was a red wave in southern Illinois,” Jackson said. “It swept away almost all standing Democrats. With the exemption of [state Rep.] Jerry Costello Jr., everything south of I-64 is going to be represented by Republicans.”
* Daily Herald…
Seven new members were elected Tuesday to the Kane County Board, putting new representatives in place for more than one-third of the county.
Democrats also gained a 12-12 split on the board, but recent history indicates the even number won’t foretell a blue wave for county policy in the near future.
The new Democrats on the board are Anita Lewis, Matt Hanson, Chris Kious and Mo Iqbal.
Lewis was courted to run for the seat by county board Chairman Chris Lauzen, who is a Republican. Iqbal ran an unsuccessful campaign for Elgin City Council in 2015, but he defeated incumbent Republican Kurt Kojzarek by nearly 700 votes. […]
“By my projections, all I needed was the amount of votes I had,” Kojzarek said. “I got my people out. It’s just there were 2,000 extra people that didn’t vote or didn’t register that changes from four years ago. The changing demographics swept me in.”
* Macon County also had a huge voter turnout on Tuesday, but things didn’t go well for the Democrats…
Tuesday’s election was the largest midterm turnout Steve Bean has seen since the 1998 election when Glenn Poshard ran for governor.
“We had 39,453″ this year, said Bean, outgoing Macon County Clerk, who will retire and hand over the reins to Josh Tanner, the winner of the race to fill the job. “We had 39,541 in 1998.”
Bean is a Democrat, so that office flipped to the Republicans. Tanner won 54-46.
* Herald & Review…
Macon County sheriff’s Lt. Tony Brown on Wednesday said he’s moving forward with asking for a recount of Tuesday’s election. Brown, a Democrat, finished 99 votes behind sheriff’s Lt. Jim Root, the GOP candidate.
Brown said he hopes that a recount, along with provisional and outstanding absentee ballots the county clerk’s office is still tallying, ultimately leads to him being declared the winner of the election.
Not looking great for him.
* The Democrats also lost control of the county board…
The Macon County Board saw Republicans take a slight edge in the contested races on Tuesday night.
In District 1, Democratic incumbent Laura Zimmerman held onto her seat with 40 percent of the vote, and Republican challenger Linda Little captured 33 percent of the vote to unseat Democratic incumbent Kevin Meachum.
Republican challenger Jim Gresham unseated Democrat Jerry Potts in District 3 with 53 percent of the vote.
* Related…
* ADDED: After years of Democratic control, is the 12th District firmly in Republican hands?
* ADDED: Rauner wins only 1 Galesburg precinct
* Patrick Windhorst Gets Ready to Join Illinois House: Republican Patrick Windhorst defeated democrat Natalie Phelps-Finnie in the mid-term election winning 58-percent of the vote.
* Lance Yednock won in Ottawa, La Salle, Peru; Jerry Long won in Streator in 76th District tally
- Pundent - Friday, Nov 9, 18 @ 11:43 am:
The absence of Democrats downstate and Republicans in the northern part of the state is not a good thing. Our elected officials have to represent the interests of the entire state. We need balance otherwise large groups of people get marginalized. This is already happening in Washington where we see blue states being punished in favor of red and a congress that gleefully plays along. Its the reason that Roskam and Hultgren will no longer hold office. This doesn’t bode well for anyone in the near term.
- wordslinger - Friday, Nov 9, 18 @ 11:52 am:
–Jackson said that southern Illinois cemented itself as a Republican stronghold, while the Chicago suburbs became the new power base for Democrats.–
Been a while coming, but it’s more reflective of the national split.
Want to guess where most of the people are in Illinois?
Hint: take a look at the party affiliation of all the statewide elected officials and the large majorities in the GA.
- So_Ill - Friday, Nov 9, 18 @ 11:58 am:
I think democrats will gladly trade the suburbs for southern Illinois.
- Highland Il - Friday, Nov 9, 18 @ 12:03 pm:
As a Republican in Madison County this should make me feel good, but it doesn’t. Why? Because many of these GOP candidates are closer to Trump then to my way of thinking. We’ll see a lot of state representatives and senators getting an easy taxpayer paycheck. They’ll accomplish nothing just being a “no” vote in Springfield blaming everything on Chicago & Madigan.
- Oswego Willy - Friday, Nov 9, 18 @ 12:04 pm:
Counties don’t vote.
If land were the main factor of influence, the at-large Congressman Gregory Gianforte of Montana would be the most important member of Congress.
- Perrid - Friday, Nov 9, 18 @ 12:07 pm:
OW, land doesn’t vote in a state. Land very much votes on the federal level, because that’s just the (arbitrary) choice our forefathers made, just look at the Senate.
- Anotheretiree - Friday, Nov 9, 18 @ 12:09 pm:
Republicans control a lot of dirt and possums…I feel a new slogan coming on
- Oswego Willy - Friday, Nov 9, 18 @ 12:11 pm:
===…land doesn’t vote in a state. Land very much votes on the federal level, because that’s just the (arbitrary) choice our forefathers made, just look at the Senate.===
Hmm…
“land doesn’t vote in a state. Land very much votes on the federal level.”
… and yet it’s the popular vote that elects Senators.
Oh… to this…
“because that’s just the (arbitrary) choice our forefathers made, just look at the Senate.”
The Senate wasn’t a directly elected position by our forefathers too.
“17th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution: Direct Election of U.S. Senators. Americans did not directly vote for senators for the first 125 years of the Federal Government. The Constitution, as it was adopted in 1788, stated that senators would be elected by state legislatures”
So there’s that..
- wordslinger - Friday, Nov 9, 18 @ 12:22 pm:
The arithmetic demands that for the GOP to be a viably competitive statewide party they have to find a path back into the suburbs. There’s no getting around it.
- anon2 - Friday, Nov 9, 18 @ 12:26 pm:
The stark regional split between parties is the reason three-member House districts with cumulative voting were introduced after the Civil War. With downstate being almost all red, we can expect more resolutions favoring secession of the Chicago area from the state. What would Illinois be without the City and its suburbs?
U.S. Senators are elected, but each state gets two, regardless of population. The number of senators is based upon states, not people.
- Jibba - Friday, Nov 9, 18 @ 12:29 pm:
==everything south of I-64 is going to be represented by Republicans.===
And for better or for worse, that should be one congressional district after the 2020 redistricting, if it even has enough people to form a single district. Add some more rural southern counties if needed.
This is not gerrymandering by packing. It is recognizing that the urban/rural divide is our biggest political difference. Large rural conservative areas should receive the representation they want, and urban areas should be grouped to obtain liberal representation, in as compact an area as possible.
- VanillaMan - Friday, Nov 9, 18 @ 12:31 pm:
The Senate represents governments, not land. Without it, there would be only 13 US states. Who in their right mind would carve out civilization, just to have it ruled by folks thousands of miles away?
We a a federal government system where the state governments are united within the Senate.
Why have we forgotten US civics?
- JB13 - Friday, Nov 9, 18 @ 12:32 pm:
Want to end the Republican Party in Illinois? Do something that helps downstate. Southern IL missed out on the fracking shale oil boom because Chicago progressives found it icky. How much better off would the state have been with an infusion of oil revenue for years, when the rest of the economy tanked? Don’t overlook downstate “dirt.” It’s a huge part of the state’s economy and, in the grand scheme of things, far more important than tech jobs, because, food. Represent all of Illinois, not just “where all the people are.”
- Oswego Willy - Friday, Nov 9, 18 @ 12:33 pm:
===The Senate represents governments, not land==
… then, the 17th Amendment passed…
- OldDutch - Friday, Nov 9, 18 @ 12:34 pm:
South of I-80 is almost all red, the exception being the region around Metro-east. North of I-80 and east of I-36 seems to be more and more blue. Coming from deep Southern Illinois, I am not surprised.
- jim - Friday, Nov 9, 18 @ 12:36 pm:
commenters are right — who cares about downstate Illinois? Although there are some pockets of limited power, GOP is a non-entity in Illinois, at best irrelevant. that’s why all this pritzker talk about working with GOP in legislature is pure drivel. He doesn’t need them for anything. He has more Democratic votes than he needs. Of course, if some GOPers want to vote yes for his programs, so some of Cullerton/Madigan Dems can vote no, that would be welcome.
- VanillaMan - Friday, Nov 9, 18 @ 12:39 pm:
This entire “senate doesn’t represent us” meme is bogus.
If representation is best represented by the House, has these same “experts” realized that between 2011 up to January, the GOP was in the majority in both the House and the Senate?
Bogus.
- City Zen - Friday, Nov 9, 18 @ 12:41 pm:
==This is already happening in Washington where we see blue states being punished in favor of red==
How so?
- Steve Rogers - Friday, Nov 9, 18 @ 12:41 pm:
Let’s bring back cumulative representation in the House. It worked for 110 years, and this is the exact reason it was put in the constitution in the first place–the steep political division of the state in the 1850s and 60s.
- VanillaMan - Friday, Nov 9, 18 @ 12:41 pm:
Did you see the polls?
It’s not just two different politics, it is two different cultures.
South and North in Illinois are polarizing greater than ever.
- VanillaMan - Friday, Nov 9, 18 @ 12:43 pm:
The only thing Pritzker wants is the availability of a GOP fig leaf when the Democrat’s plans go awry.
- Da Big Bad Wolf - Friday, Nov 9, 18 @ 12:46 pm:
“With the exemption of [state Reps.] Jerry Costello Jr., Jay Hoffman, and LaToya Greenwood, everything south of I-64 is going to be represented by Republicans.”
Fixed it for you Professor Jackson.
- Jibba - Friday, Nov 9, 18 @ 12:47 pm:
VM, it is just plain math that a Senator from Wyoming represents fewer people than a Senator from California, yet their votes are of equal weight. They are both democratically elected as per our constitution, but it violates equal representation. Intentionally.
I’m beginning to think, since the formal and informal restraints that govern the Senate only seem to apply during Democratic administrations, the Senate may have outlived its usefulness, and we would be better off having a Parliament.
- Rich Miller - Friday, Nov 9, 18 @ 12:48 pm:
===bring back cumulative representation===
I don’t think it can survive a modern one-person, one-vote test.
- Anonymous - Friday, Nov 9, 18 @ 12:54 pm:
The GOP “owning” Southern Illinois is a problem… for them. Because if you examine long-term demographic trends, their people are dwindling steadily, aging-out and being replaced by non-whites, without matching replacements. Over time, the electoral math will make them more and more irrelevant. Would not be the first time people do things against their own interest.
- Anonymous - Friday, Nov 9, 18 @ 1:01 pm:
Southern Illinois is going to have NO voice in state government, unlike in the days of such powerful Downstate Democrats as Paul Simon, Alan Dixon, Paul Powell and Glenn Poshard. Way to marginalize yourselves, Egyptians.
- VanillaMan - Friday, Nov 9, 18 @ 1:08 pm:
There are 12 Senators from New Englad and only 1 is a Republican.
Yet you finger point at Wyoming?
There was no Republican US Senate candidate even running in California because the Democrats change state law to prevent it. 33 million people - no choice.
The 17th didn’t change the purpose of the Senate. Additionally, it failed to do what it was supposed to do as promised - end corruption. I don’t advocate repealing the 17th. What we have obviously failed to do is teach basic US civics explaining how a federal government works.
- Jibba - Friday, Nov 9, 18 @ 1:12 pm:
VM…you’re talking politics and I’m talking process. Exactly how has California outlawed Republicans from running for Senate? Think you need to quit drinking this early.
- Rich Miller - Friday, Nov 9, 18 @ 1:15 pm:
===because the Democrats change state law to prevent it===
What a fake news take that was. The top two vote-getters in the primaries advance to the general election. So, think about that. The Republican Party in California could not muster enough votes for a Senate candidate to top either of the top vote-getter in the Democratic primary. They did manage to do it in the governor’s race.
- VanillaMan - Friday, Nov 9, 18 @ 1:20 pm:
If you live in New England, you get 1 US Senate vote for every 1 million people.
Fact is, the Senate doesn’t represent land or people - it represents their governments. Without that, there would be no reason to become a US state.
- lollinois - Friday, Nov 9, 18 @ 1:20 pm:
== South of I-80 is almost all red, the exception being the region around Metro-east. ==
Champaign County is pretty far south of I-80.
- Oswego Willy - Friday, Nov 9, 18 @ 1:21 pm:
===the Senate doesn’t represent land or people - it represents their governments.===
… then, the 17th Amendment…
- west wing - Friday, Nov 9, 18 @ 1:47 pm:
After Tuesday and the long campaign of hype about the blue wave downstate, the Dems need to regroup and try a new approach to downstate campaigns. Democrats sitting in Chicago doing the typical top-down messaging has failed several campaign cycles.
Both the House and Senate Dems need an overhaul regarding downstate.
- anon2 - Friday, Nov 9, 18 @ 1:56 pm:
=== If representation is best represented by the House, has these same “experts” realized that between 2011 up to January, the GOP was in the majority in both the House and the Senate? ===
Gerrymandering accounts for the GOP majority, not more votes. Because of the GOP tsunami in 2010, they gerrymandered Congressional districts in most states. That’s contrary to the spirit of democracy, IMO. But if the extremely malapportioned (based upon population) Senate is fine, then gerrymandering should get a pass, too.
- Jibba - Friday, Nov 9, 18 @ 2:12 pm:
Illinois will certainly lose at least one congressional district after 2020. There are 6 “non-Chicagoland” big districts, and at least one will have to go.
Imagine a new CD centered around metro east and a second one containing the major central Illinois cities (Peoria, Springfield, B-N, C-U, Decatur). That leaves all other rural areas south of a line from Quincy to Danville in one district. But the population numbers warrant it. as do the political trends. Not gerrymandering at all, but reflective of the opinions of the district.
- Da Big Bad Wolf - Friday, Nov 9, 18 @ 2:13 pm:
==Southern IL missed out on the fracking shale oil boom because Chicago progressives found it icky.==
Maybe so, but Southern Illinoisans found fracking icky too. The Illinois Farm Bureau was against it because they thought it would harm farms. Southern Illinoisans Against Fracturing Our Environment, out of Murphysboro, sued the Illinois Dept of Natural Resources to try and stop it. Fracking is no longer profitable with oil at $60 a barrel and dropping, so people aren’t talking so much about it these days. But that could change. Fracking will benefit some people and hurt others so it remains controversial.
By the way Pat Quinn (D) and John Bradley (D) Marion, supported fracking and they lost their races.
- Da Big Bad Wolf - Friday, Nov 9, 18 @ 2:26 pm:
==Who in their right mind would carve out civilization, just to have it ruled by folks thousands of miles away?==
Good question. Anyone here from America Samoa care to answer that?
- James R. Anderson - Friday, Nov 9, 18 @ 2:47 pm:
Illinois has 18 Congress-critters. In the new Congress, there will be:
- Four from Chicago — all Democrats
- Eight from the suburbs — all Democrats
- Six from Downstate — One Democrat, five Republicans
(For those of you keeping score, Kinzinger lives in the Grundy County portion of Channahon, which is Downstate.)
The question we will see answered over the next decade was whether this year’s election was a wave, a correction or a realignment. I think it’s some of each.
I think the Joe Bustos article in the BND was excellent.
- Smitty Irving - Friday, Nov 9, 18 @ 3:17 pm:
VM, the California system was Arnold’s departing gift. He insisted on it in return for GOP Budget votes (2/3 rds vote required for budget prior to Brown II).
- hisgirlfriday - Friday, Nov 9, 18 @ 3:32 pm:
Downstate is not a monolith! Hate seeing folks act like it should just be written off as one thing or the other.
Macon County and Champaign County are both Downstate counties in same media market but their unique identities dictate their polarized opposition to each other politically.
White voters are getting sorted between the two parties based on college education vs. no college education, whereas during the post-war age of unionism the white voters got sorted based on union vs. non-union sensibilities.
A community like Decatur, once “Strike City USA” for its fervent unionism, is becoming more and more a Republican bastion after globalization has sufficiently hollowed it out as a post-industrial shell of what it was and the people left behind are just left with bitterness at the Democrats that sold them out on NAFTA and economic progress in exchange for advances on social issues that they may not even agree with, as they also bear scars of racial tension. Thus, Decatur, once distinct from small town Illinois falls into the same voting pattern as the folks that saw their town squares get up and disappear to bigger regional cities.
Meanwhile, Champaign-Urbana, a community with little to no union history becomes a Democratic hotbed based on fidelity to liberal social values and revulsion at the anti-science and anti-diversity sensibilities of the modern GOP. As a place with a knowledge-based economy and scores of foreign students and professors it recoils at Trumpism.
There is a really good twitter thread at link about how a lot of Decatur-like places in Ohio have shifted Republican that I think has similar implications for Downstate IL.
https://mobile.twitter.com/AlecMacGillis/status/1060594526241411075
- 47th Ward - Friday, Nov 9, 18 @ 3:46 pm:
===the California system===
And John Cox managed to do in California what he couldn’t in his native Illinois: become his party’s nominee for Governor.
But like all of his previous efforts in Illinois, he lost.