Capitol Fax.com - Your Illinois News Radar » *** UPDATED x1 *** Illinois lost 45,116 people in one year
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*** UPDATED x1 *** Illinois lost 45,116 people in one year

Wednesday, Dec 19, 2018 - Posted by Rich Miller

* Ugh…


That’s like losing the equivalent of Elmhurst. Minnesota gained the equivalent of DeKalb and Indiana gained the equivalent of Danville.

* From the Census Bureau

Population declines were also common, with losses occurring in nine states and Puerto Rico. The nine states that lost population last year were New York (down 48,510), Illinois (45,116), West Virginia (11,216), Louisiana (10,840), Hawaii (3,712), Mississippi (3,133), Alaska (2,348), Connecticut (1,215) and Wyoming (1,197). […]

Texas had the largest numeric growth over the last year, with an increase of 379,128 people. Texas grew both from having more births than deaths and from net gains in movers from within and outside the United States.

Florida had the highest level of net domestic migration in the last year, at 132,602. Since 2010, Florida has gained a total of 1,160,387 people from net domestic migration.

The voting age population, those 18 years and over, increased by 0.9 percent to 253,768,092 people in 2018.

The estimates are as of July 1, 2018, and therefore do not reflect the effects of Hurricane Florence in September 2018, Hurricane Michael in October 2018, and the California Wildfires.

*** UPDATE *** Births are slightly down, deaths are slightly up, international migration is relatively flat, but check out how domestic out-migration has nearly doubled…



       

113 Comments
  1. - NIU Grad - Wednesday, Dec 19, 18 @ 9:52 am:

    Those municipality comparisons are chilling. Yikes.


  2. - Romeo - Wednesday, Dec 19, 18 @ 9:54 am:

    But according to JB, people aren’t leaving because of taxes. MN is an outlier, but they soften the income tax blow by not taxing groceries or clothing. Property taxes are significantly lower in MN than in IL, as the state typically pays more for education than Springfield does.


  3. - ItsMillerTime - Wednesday, Dec 19, 18 @ 9:55 am:

    The legacy of Rauner, making Illinois problems even worse. Hopefully JB and a stable budget will staunch the bleeding and further in the future we might even reverse this.


  4. - Honeybear - Wednesday, Dec 19, 18 @ 9:55 am:

    Great…The Population Loss Onanists are gonna go on about this ad nauseum.
    Ugh


  5. - thatsaBINGO - Wednesday, Dec 19, 18 @ 10:00 am:

    In other words, Illinois looks poised to lose two congressional seats in the next reapportionment. Can we know say that Democrats have run our state so poorly they are losing their own political clout in Washington as a result?


  6. - Anonymous - Wednesday, Dec 19, 18 @ 10:02 am:

    Honeybear,

    I for one welcome this rapid population decrease. the less congressional seats Illinois has the better. This state does not deserve to have national influence. I’m thinking good Ol’ JB can get us up to 80,000 exits by the next fiscal year.


  7. - Anon - Wednesday, Dec 19, 18 @ 10:03 am:

    I wonder what issues are cited in NY, that’s a big loss there too. Housing prices? Taxes? It seems like they don’t have the same level of violence as parts of Chicago do, I honestly don’t know much about their budget, but I don’t think they had an impasse like we did. It is cold, but so is Minnesota.


  8. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Dec 19, 18 @ 10:03 am:

    ===Democrats have run our state so poorly they are losing their own political clout in Washington as a result?==

    Rauner was Governor in 2017 and 2018.

    You’re welcome.

    Oh… “Democrats have run our state so poorly they are losing their own political clout in Washington as a result?”

    Durbin is 3rd in line in Democratic leadership in the US Senate. Bustos is the chair of the DCCC, running the campaign apparatus for the *majority* party in the US House.

    So… that’s “not a bingo”, and a firm no.


  9. - Anonymous - Wednesday, Dec 19, 18 @ 10:04 am:

    A state with a strong history of good government and high quality public services gains population, while a state with a bipartisan history of corruption, mismanagement, and archaic machine politics bleeds population. I’m utterly shocked.


  10. - Grandson of Man - Wednesday, Dec 19, 18 @ 10:04 am:

    We will hopefully and thankfully have a governor who will talk up the state instead of trashing it. Jay Bob says he wants to lower property taxes by taxing the rich more and shifting the tax burden more onto them. That’s the fairer way and long overdue, difficult as it is to make happen.

    Minnesota’s the best model above, because of high median incomes, a projected $1.5 billion budget surplus, health insurance expansion, full-union state, etc.


  11. - Not It - Wednesday, Dec 19, 18 @ 10:05 am:

    Great job, Bruce.


  12. - Anon221 - Wednesday, Dec 19, 18 @ 10:05 am:

    And how many of those people were college students??? Another “squeezy” result.

    https://www.ibhe.org/pdf/Outmigration2018Residence.pdf


  13. - Stark - Wednesday, Dec 19, 18 @ 10:05 am:

    You know how Minnesota funds those excellent public services? It certainly ain’t a flat tax.


  14. - Anonymous - Wednesday, Dec 19, 18 @ 10:10 am:

    If you go to the Census website and dig further into the details, Illinois had a natural increase (births -deaths)of +428,467.

    International net migration was +241,894.

    Domestic migration was -761,837. That number is insane.

    Only New York lost more people to domestic migration with 1,150,387.

    Data from here:

    https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/demo/popest/2010s-national-total.html#par_textimage_2011805803


  15. - The Dude Abides - Wednesday, Dec 19, 18 @ 10:10 am:

    Given that time window it likely had a lot to do with Rauner holding the state budget hostage for over 2 years. A lot of people were hurt by that and it forced some folks to find another place to live.


  16. - Demoralized - Wednesday, Dec 19, 18 @ 10:10 am:

    ==Democrats have run our state so poorly==

    That is a lazy, hyperpartisan “analysis” of the situation. If only things were that simple.


  17. - Iggy - Wednesday, Dec 19, 18 @ 10:15 am:

    = lot of people were hurt by that and it forced some folks to find another place to live.=

    Proof? And my cousin’s neighbor stopped getting child care so she moved to Indiana doesn’t count.

    I could also make the statement: This state’s unfriendly business climate, archaic workers comp laws, and sky rocketing property taxes, forced a lot of middle class folks out of this state for greener pastures.


  18. - Flat Bed Ford - Wednesday, Dec 19, 18 @ 10:15 am:

    Congressional seats are based on a ten year cycle. Over the next congressional map there is a solid chance Illinois will lose two seats. Over the previous ten years Democrats will have had the Governors office 60% of the time and majorities in the House and Senate 100% of the time. Those claiming the Democrats had/have nothing to do with this are ignoring reality.


  19. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Dec 19, 18 @ 10:17 am:

    ===Over the previous ten years Democrats will have had the Governors office 60% of the time===

    … and yet, ignoring Rauner’s term… of a whole General Assembly without a budget, crushing social services, and refusing to fully fund higher ed is… nothing?

    The voters this November disagree, but… whatevs…


  20. - in absentia - Wednesday, Dec 19, 18 @ 10:20 am:

    Politics aside, folks these days don’t have to work where they are employed anymore. So if you’re a remote employee, why stay in the cold? Texas is a naturally attractive state in terms of weather and yes - taxes.


  21. - anon2 - Wednesday, Dec 19, 18 @ 10:21 am:

    Minnesota has a graduated income tax with a top rate of 9.85%, and yet people are moving there, not moving out. Something to remember when opponents of the graduated income tax in Illinois start warning about population loss.


  22. - Anonymous - Wednesday, Dec 19, 18 @ 10:23 am:

    Debt and increasing taxes, both of which will continue to increase in Illinois, insure a continuous exit of population.


  23. - Anonymous - Wednesday, Dec 19, 18 @ 10:23 am:

    Bears fans are leaving, could be a good thing.


  24. - High Socks - Wednesday, Dec 19, 18 @ 10:28 am:

    =Can we know say that Democrats have run our state so poorly=

    Know, know we cannot


  25. - Nick Name - Wednesday, Dec 19, 18 @ 10:31 am:

    ===You know how Minnesota funds those excellent public services? It certainly ain’t a flat tax.===

    Exactly. Every one of those states, save Indiana, has progressive income tax brackets. They fund their publicv services, higher ed and K-12, capital projects, etc. And flat-tax Indiana also has a county-level income tax to make up for locally what can’t get funded by the state income tax.

    And those states’ property taxes are lower. Which Illinois could achieve if our leaders and people ever put on their big boy pants and amend the constitution to allow for progressive tax brackets.


  26. - 47th Ward - Wednesday, Dec 19, 18 @ 10:32 am:

    With the exception of Michigan, Illinois still has more people than any two of those other states. The more people you have, the more you are likely to lose.


  27. - Sue - Wednesday, Dec 19, 18 @ 10:32 am:

    Can’t wait for the next few years as these trends continue and all of you won’t have Rauner to blame.


  28. - Now What? - Wednesday, Dec 19, 18 @ 10:33 am:

    Wasn’t this the GOP/IPI plan all along? Break it, scapegoat it, then remake it in your own image? Well done, 1%!


  29. - Turner - Wednesday, Dec 19, 18 @ 10:37 am:

    ==Rauner was Governor in 2017 and 2018.==
    Come on Willy, pick a lane. I thought Rauner wasn’t a Republican and he governed like a coastal limousine liberal. Even Jeanne agrees with you on that point. R.I.N.O.


  30. - Fixer - Wednesday, Dec 19, 18 @ 10:37 am:

    Anons are out en masse today, it seems. Two years, no budget, no pay increases for my household… yeah, my family and I were considering leaving. We decided to stick it out though as we’ve moved around quite a bit over the last 10 years because of my employment prior to starting with the state. I’m glad we stayed. This is home for us. Hopefully we’ll see some of that out migration change now that there is someone at the Helmand that has shown some interest in governing as opposed to simply trashing the state at every opportunity.


  31. - Anonymous - Wednesday, Dec 19, 18 @ 10:42 am:

    “The more people you have, the more you are likely to lose.”

    True. If Wyoming lost that many people it would mean something. For Illinois it is just a blip.


  32. - wordslinger - Wednesday, Dec 19, 18 @ 10:44 am:

    –Minnesota (+6,769) also had the largest population growth from domestic migration in the region–

    Does that mean the bulk of their and other Midwestern states increased population is international immigration and/or new babies?


  33. - Jibba - Wednesday, Dec 19, 18 @ 10:44 am:

    Once again, we talk about what to do about this problem. Rauner’s solutions got no traction because they were not supported by the people and their representatives. We don’t want to become North Mississippi, nor can we become West Indiana because our tax rates will remain higher even if we cut all services to the bone, given our existing debt.

    What then? Pay the bills, provide stable, boring government. Rebuild our services and try to provide them more efficiently, perhaps including additional tweaks to workman’s comp and other “business unfriendly” issues that can be done without giving away our morality. Continue with government reform to weed out pork, pay to play, and other patronage. Reinvest in Chicagoland, our economic advantage over most places in the country; good schools and safety are the places to start. Play up our natural advantages of water availability, transportation, technology, and a population center. Start legal challenges against states that poach our businesses with special deals not available to their existing citizens. Continue with and maintain blue state reforms that higher income citizens enjoy, such as marriage equality, marijuana legalization, abortion rights, and similar things that may be jeopardized in the upcoming decades.

    These things will not fully reverse some of the decline, which has been ongoing since 1900 (driven by agricultural workforce loss and later manufacturing), but they will build on the few advantages that we do have. If we do it right, we have a chance to become Minnesota, not Mississippi.


  34. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Dec 19, 18 @ 10:44 am:

    ===Come on Willy, pick a lane. I thought Rauner wasn’t a Republican and he governed like a coastal limousine liberal.===

    LOL

    No lane *to* pick.

    Keep up, please.

    Rauner bought the GOP GA. Rauner bought the brand, the naming rights, the voting switches.

    Ives and the conservatives with sour grapes now are focused on, yep, that liberal social agenda.

    Raunerism bought the ILGOP, the GOP party, any bad every thing… GOP.

    You add Dunkin, Drury, and Franks… the GOP brand, Raunerism, hurt Illinois.

    Ives uses R _ _ _ as a term to make the party a monolithic disaster, shrinking it to permanent minority status.

    Ives is as much of the problem as Rauner is.


  35. - Tequila Mockingbird - Wednesday, Dec 19, 18 @ 10:53 am:

    I know a lot of retirees looking to flee madiganistan before property values fall further and taxes and fees Skyrocket. We are a couple years from retiring but we were looking at properties in Minnesota a few weeks ago.


  36. - Generic Drone - Wednesday, Dec 19, 18 @ 10:54 am:

    So you’re sayin Illinois Policy is wrong? Say it ain’t so. IPI is always saying if we raise taxes on the rich, the sky will fall and Illinois will be a vacant wasteland.


  37. - lake county democrat - Wednesday, Dec 19, 18 @ 10:56 am:

    Rauner passed his agenda? Could have fooled me. Quinn, Blago and George Ryan sure did.

    Anyone being serious about the population flight knows it’s a longterm trend and the roots of it have bipartisan causes - you can go back to the 1970 Convention, Edgar’s kicking the can, Ryan’s kicking it harder, or Rauner’s eating the seed corn for key moments.


  38. - Maximus - Wednesday, Dec 19, 18 @ 10:57 am:

    People don’t actually believe a graduated income tax is going to fix the financial problems in Illinois right? Could it maybe collect more money to help? Sure. Fix the problem? Not possible.


  39. - Skeptic - Wednesday, Dec 19, 18 @ 11:01 am:

    Interesting…half of those states are Right-to-Work. It’s almost as if that didn’t have any significant effect on outmigration. Who woulda thunk? /s


  40. - Galena Guy - Wednesday, Dec 19, 18 @ 11:01 am:

    And, not to put too fine a point on it O.W., Rauner’s antics & childlike behavior caused one of the Repub’s most effective leaders - Christine Radogno - to call it quits.


  41. - 47th Ward - Wednesday, Dec 19, 18 @ 11:01 am:

    35,445 of those 45,116 were college freshman who left Illinois to go to school elsewhere.

    http://www.news-gazette.com/news/local/2018-01-13/record-number-illinois-college-freshmen-heading-out-state.html


  42. - City Zen - Wednesday, Dec 19, 18 @ 11:02 am:

    ==as the state typically pays more for education than Springfield does==

    While the state of Minnesota pays more for education, Minnesota taxpayers actually spend less per pupil on education.


  43. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Dec 19, 18 @ 11:03 am:

    ===Rauner passed his agenda? Could have fooled me.===

    Aw, this is fun, lol

    Rauner held the state hostage, at times possibly worse than his agenda, and with the help of Drury, Franks, and Dunkin, forced Illinois without a budget for an entire General Assembly.

    Rauner holding Illinois hostage was the feature, not the bug, if he couldn’t get his agenda… so the agenda turned to… squeezing the beast.

    Your comment is cute, as it’s not based on any realty to what Rauner “accomplished”

    The only real “fail” to squeeze the beast was not closing a state university. Rauner wanted that bad.


  44. - Michelle Flaherty - Wednesday, Dec 19, 18 @ 11:10 am:

    I knew there had been a lot of turnover in the Rauner administration, but I had no idea it had reached this level.


  45. - Anonymous - Wednesday, Dec 19, 18 @ 11:14 am:

    New York Times has an interesting map that shows voting patterns of populations. All over United States, no matter if it is a red state or blue state, rural area people tend to vote red, people from urban and suburban areas tend to vote blue. Texas is more blue than Illinois. But being a larger area, they have more rural areas, which take away the influence of their urban areas.


  46. - DuPage Dave - Wednesday, Dec 19, 18 @ 11:19 am:

    Long term population change is a complicated thing, not tied to one administration or party. Rauner was a lousy governor, but this trend goes back a long time. One example cited here, the lack of state support for public universities, is owned by both parties over many years. When students leave Illinois at 18 they are likely not to return. So we lose not just one person but an educated person. The state constitution is a big obstacle to a graduated income tax, so there’s no easy way to emulate Minnesota.

    To me the best summary is that Illinois has a lot of problems that will take quite a long time to diminish. I wish Pritzker well, but these problems will take decades to work out.


  47. - 47th Ward - Wednesday, Dec 19, 18 @ 11:23 am:

    10,000 baby boomers retire every single day. Illinois is not now, nor has it ever been, a retirement destination kind of place.

    Really, big numbers are fun to play with and all, but context is really important. Unless you just want to alarm people and inflame a debate that suits your political stance.

    Austin Berg should be careful. Someday the ILGOPs will be back in power and guess what? Illinois will still lose population. How will he spin it then?


  48. - Anonymous - Wednesday, Dec 19, 18 @ 11:26 am:

    @DuPage Dave,
    Agree with you that population loss is a complex issue. Another issue is Illinois was a manufacturing state for a long time. Many small towns were one factory towns. When the factory went abroad the towns’ economy collapsed. Illinois will have to reinvent itself and find a new economy. Factories that went to China aren’t coming back.


  49. - Anonymous - Wednesday, Dec 19, 18 @ 11:27 am:

    Does this include college students leaving for out-of-state schools?


  50. - Downstate Rube - Wednesday, Dec 19, 18 @ 11:28 am:

    Onanist? High quality comment Honeybear. Is this what’s considered acceptable now?


  51. - City Zen - Wednesday, Dec 19, 18 @ 11:39 am:

    ==You know how Minnesota funds those excellent public services? It certainly ain’t a flat tax.==

    Must be Minnesota applying their wonderfully high and gloriously progressive tax rates equally to retirement income as they do to regular income.

    It certainly ain’t exempting retirement income.


  52. - Anonymous - Wednesday, Dec 19, 18 @ 11:40 am:

    “Onanist? High quality comment Honeybear. Is this what’s considered acceptable now?”

    I would have said “navel gazing” myself, but Honeybear’s comment was far funnier.


  53. - Responsa - Wednesday, Dec 19, 18 @ 11:45 am:

    For a person who regularly talks of having gone to Divinity school and who preaches Christian help for the helpless, that was a pretty unexpected and cruddy comment, Honeybear. Really?


  54. - Anonymous - Wednesday, Dec 19, 18 @ 11:48 am:

    Onanism is against Christianity? Doesn’t the Bible say to love oneself?


  55. - thatsaBINGO - Wednesday, Dec 19, 18 @ 11:48 am:

    pardon the typo, it happens. OW, losing two congressional seats is losing clout to other states, however you slice it. I don’t see Durbin in the senate for the next 12 years either.


  56. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Dec 19, 18 @ 11:52 am:

    ===losing two congressional seats is losing clout to other states, however you slice it.===

    Yeah, no… No.

    The third in line in the Democratic Senate carries lots of juice. Now you’re concerned about 12 years from now… lol… your moving goal posts are quite comical.

    You forgot to address the whole Bustos leading the DCCC, for the majority. Why was that?


  57. - Grandson of Man - Wednesday, Dec 19, 18 @ 11:55 am:

    Well, well, well, look what we have here. Outmigration practically started under Rauner. Not only did he purposely cause more per-capita damage than anyone, but people were leaving the state during his term.

    Rauner and certain right wingers push the Illinois exodus narrative and talk the state down, so…ironic.


  58. - Joeblow - Wednesday, Dec 19, 18 @ 11:57 am:

    I dont wanna hear anyone who keeps voting for these tax and spend democrats crying about their high property tax bill or the fact that your factory where you work is closing and moving to indiana.When are you democratic voters gonna wake up and realize how bad illinois is fiscally?-no whining allowed


  59. - Merica - Wednesday, Dec 19, 18 @ 12:07 pm:

    The question of whether to move or stay is a multiprogned analysis that requires the consideration of 1. Family ties, 2. Income potential, 3. Quality of schools, 4. Taxes, 5. Cost of living, 6. Quality of other services, 7. Home appreciation or lack thereof, as well as others and in no particular order.

    Objectively speaking, when you eliminate the consideration of family ties and personal relationships, Illinois is a pretty bad deal. Particularly in the Republican controlled central and downstate areas where property taxes often exceed 2.5% of your home’s value, and where government services, such as schools are often poor. Add to that a challenged housing market with little or no appreciation (meaning you lose home value each year when you account for inflation and maintenance) and you’ve got a really bad deal.

    To fix the pension crisis, every household in Illinois would need to pay an additional $1,200.00 a year, for 30 years.

    I hope these problems can be fixed. I just don’t know how it can be done.


  60. - Anon - Wednesday, Dec 19, 18 @ 12:09 pm:

    I am retired and looking to move from Illinois where I have lived for 61 years

    I get tired of being legislated based on issues in Chicago


  61. - JS Mill - Wednesday, Dec 19, 18 @ 12:11 pm:

    =While the state of Minnesota pays more for education, Minnesota taxpayers actually spend less per pupil on education.=

    I wonder why? Actually, I don’t wonder, I know why.

    Do you?


  62. - Sue - Wednesday, Dec 19, 18 @ 12:11 pm:

    Anon- you truly seem to be challenged- comparing us to Wyoming due to our size? The States listed all grew population. We are the only one on the list to lose. And 41k is a huge number of people and the trend has been getting worse. Illinois has huge liabilities and now a smaller tax base to pay for them. You are always screaming about facts but never want to acknowledge when the facts are confirming that the State is poorly managed and people are voting with their feet. Burying your head where the sun doesn’t shine is not going to improve our situation. Pritzker needs to do something other then tax and spend. It’s a shame he can’t hire Scott Walker to serve out his term


  63. - NeverPoliticallyCorrect - Wednesday, Dec 19, 18 @ 12:17 pm:

    Love the history revisionists here. Both parties are to blame for where we are as a state, Rauner is just the most recent governor at fault, Madigan is beyond words in his culpability. But it doesn’t matter. The Dems won. Now if they really want to fix things and if they want to encourage people to stay or move here they can’t keep doing business as usual. If they do, their base will keep electing them but the rest of us will continue to bail, and probably in increasing numbers. Let’s see what game JB brings to the table. Perhaps we all just need to shut up and check back in after May 31 with the new state budget. Oh but that wouldn’t be fun would it?


  64. - Anonymous - Wednesday, Dec 19, 18 @ 12:22 pm:

    Joe: the fact that your factory where you work is closing and moving to China.
    There. Fixed it for you.


  65. - 37B - Wednesday, Dec 19, 18 @ 12:22 pm:

    Tequila:
    When making your decision consider that Minnesota taxes all retirement income. Lowest rate is 5.35% for married filing jointly $0-37,110 bracket.
    On the other hand the average sales tax burden is slightly lower (7.3% v. 8.75%) and the average property tax burden is about half (1.17% of value v. 2.32% of value). Pick your poison.


  66. - Grandson of Man - Wednesday, Dec 19, 18 @ 12:29 pm:

    “I know a lot of retirees looking to flee madiganistan before property values fall further and taxes and fees Skyrocket. We are a couple years from retiring but we were looking at properties in Minnesota a few weeks ago.”

    Is this sarcasm or Kass logic? Minnesota taxes retirement income.


  67. - wordslinger - Wednesday, Dec 19, 18 @ 12:36 pm:

    –Perhaps we all just need to shut up…–

    You first.

    –Is this sarcasm or Kass logic? Minnesota taxes retirement income.–

    It’s the logic of those who said they were moving to Canada if “socialist” Obamacare passed.


  68. - thatsaBINGO - Wednesday, Dec 19, 18 @ 12:37 pm:

    OW Bustos will probably be able to do big things in the house if she can help preserve the majority. But that is still an IF. The house is in play in 2020 and we also shouldn’t rule out the possibility that she shows interest again in a statewide race. Honestly though, that has nothing to with the population decline.

    It is you who haven’t addressed the fact that Illinois could lose two seats in the house. I guess that’s not that important to you… ???? btw, we had 20 as late as 2003.


  69. - Illinois Resident - Wednesday, Dec 19, 18 @ 12:41 pm:

    Watch this trend change as soon as cannabis is legalized. It will be a game changer.


  70. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Dec 19, 18 @ 12:46 pm:

    ===Bustos will probably be able to do big things in the house if she can help preserve the majority. But that is still an IF.===

    Trump’s numbers, the Senate class up in 2020, the GOP nationally in the congressional aspects of a map and the senate seats up point to Dems continuing to be surging.

    Your premise on the clout thing is inherently weak in knowledge to what you waft it to be.

    This I want alone…

    ===Honestly though, that has nothing to with the population decline.===

    You wrote;

    ===Illinois looks poised to lose two congressional seats in the next reapportionment. Can we know say that Democrats have run our state so poorly they are losing their own political clout in Washington as a result?===

    Your premise is… population loss = loss of clout.

    (Narrator: It doesn’t)

    ===It is you who haven’t addressed the fact that Illinois could lose two seats in the house. I guess that’s not that important to you… ===

    Leadership in the Caucuses is the power.

    Chairmanships is the power.

    A freshman California congressman, in the minority, in the largest state caucus is weaker than Bustos.

    A freshman senator in the majority from a Florida is far weaker than the 3rd in line in the minority caucus.

    Please keep up.

    Thanks.


  71. - Sue - Wednesday, Dec 19, 18 @ 12:54 pm:

    Oswego- please enlighten all of as as to what if anything meaningful Durbin has ever done for the State of Illinois. Being 3rd in leadership in the minority is kind of like being somewhere in Siberia. BTW the map for 2020 in terms of the Senate still seems pretty helpful to McConnell and not Chuckie S


  72. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Dec 19, 18 @ 1:01 pm:

    - Sue -

    https://www.durbin.senate.gov/about/senator-durbins-accomplishments

    You can argue with yourself, and inherently being in leadership is stronger for your state than not being in leadership.

    If you want to argue that it doesn’t… hmm.


  73. - Liandro - Wednesday, Dec 19, 18 @ 1:03 pm:

    @Wordslinger:

    Looks like Rich was at the same holiday party as me. I’ll check on his car keys before he leaves.

    “but check out how domestic out-migration has nearly doubled…”


  74. - Anonymous - Wednesday, Dec 19, 18 @ 1:06 pm:

    “Pritzker needs to do something other then tax and spend. It’s a shame he can’t hire Scott Walker to serve out his term.”

    Scott Walker of the Foxconn catastrophe? Most people would consider a three billion tax giveaway “spending.”


  75. - anon2 - Wednesday, Dec 19, 18 @ 1:08 pm:

    === Minnesota taxes retirement income. ===

    Yet it’s population keep growing, and near retirees on this blog talk about moving there. Apparently taxing retirement income isn’t causing an exodus in MN.


  76. - anon - Wednesday, Dec 19, 18 @ 1:09 pm:

    My goodness. What happened in 2015 that caused the population loss to fall off a cliff like that?


  77. - Sue - Wednesday, Dec 19, 18 @ 1:22 pm:

    Oswego- posting Durbin’s own propaganda is laughable- name one thing he has done for Illinois


  78. - muon - Wednesday, Dec 19, 18 @ 1:23 pm:

    If you look at the data, the key number is the change in net domestic migration. It’s roughly the same from 2010-2013 and again in 2015-2018. The 2014 number is closer to the 2015 rate than the 2013 rate, so it is fair to say that the change in domestic migration rates started sometime in 2014 and have held roughly the same. In political terms it started at the end of the Quinn administration and the Rauner administration didn’t change it in any meaningful way.

    There’s a crucial piece of data missing to help with the analysis. Net domestic migration is made up of two numbers, total in minus total out. It will most interesting to see if the change in 2014 is more due to a change to migration in or to migration out, and is it as steady as the net migration.


  79. - City Zen - Wednesday, Dec 19, 18 @ 1:27 pm:

    ==I wonder why? Actually, I don’t wonder, I know why. Do you?==

    Glad you asked. Minnesota started Tier 2 pension benefits in 1989. Minnesota teachers also have to work 5 extra years to reach full vesting, which is 5 less years than Illinois teachers. They also use their last 5 salaries (not 4) to determine their pension. Feel free to peruse salary schedules across similar districts between the two states as well. I think you’ll be pleasantly surprised as to how conservative they are. Of course, this is probably because Minnesota teachers participate in social security, so the school districts have to consider that 12.4% cost when determining salaries.

    And now you know. And knowing is half the battle.


  80. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Dec 19, 18 @ 1:28 pm:

    - Sue -

    I’m not a Dem. I put up his accomplishments according to Durbin for you to argue with yourself.

    You are arguing that being in leadership isn’t helping Illinois? Would you like Durbin not in leadership?

    Transportation and rail projects would be an example.


  81. - Occam - Wednesday, Dec 19, 18 @ 1:37 pm:

    For State revenue purposes, you don’t look at the net number but the gross out-migration number of (114,154) versus the gross international migration of +30,735. I’m sure IDOR has the numbers on the vast disparity in mean taxable income between those two groups. And what that translates to in annual income tax revenue losses compounded year after year.


  82. - jimmydean - Wednesday, Dec 19, 18 @ 1:42 pm:

    funny how elected leaders on BOTH sides just dont get it..i fear they never will until it finally implodes…….and jbs fair tax and weed isnt the answer…not even close.


  83. - Stuntman Bob's Brother - Wednesday, Dec 19, 18 @ 1:42 pm:

    ==Rauner passed his agenda? Could have fooled me. Quinn, Blago and George Ryan sure did.
    Anyone being serious about the population flight knows it’s a longterm trend and the roots of it have bipartisan causes - you can go back to the 1970 Convention, Edgar’s kicking the can, Ryan’s kicking it harder, or Rauner’s eating the seed corn for key moments.==

    If only there were some common denominator in Illinois politics for the past thirty years that we could point to for…for….oh, yeah, anybody heard from Mikey lately?


  84. - bobby - Wednesday, Dec 19, 18 @ 1:44 pm:

    im not red or blue but those blaming rauner id say ,hes partially to blame but them red #s started b4 he took the oath….


  85. - Anonymous - Wednesday, Dec 19, 18 @ 1:49 pm:

    “I’m sure IDOR has the numbers on the vast disparity in mean taxable income between those two groups.”
    What vast disparity? What are you talking about?


  86. - Anonymous - Wednesday, Dec 19, 18 @ 1:52 pm:

    C’mon Sue, DD got smoking banned on airplanes.

    It takes a very savvy, sharp person to get that done.


  87. - wordslinger - Wednesday, Dec 19, 18 @ 1:55 pm:

    –funny how elected leaders on BOTH sides just dont get it..i fear they never will until it finally implodes…….and jbs fair tax and weed isnt the answer…not even close.–

    Is that supposed to communicate an idea? Because it does not.

    Apparently, you consider yourself one of those who “gets it.” Why don’t you expand on your unique knowledge for the benefit of mankind.


  88. - lake county democrat - Wednesday, Dec 19, 18 @ 2:08 pm:

    -Your comment is cute, as it’s not based on any realty to what Rauner “accomplished”-

    OMG, I thought I had referenced Rauner’s record as one of four critical points since 1970 that led us to the current crisis!!! Oh wait, I did, in the very next paragraph.

    Re: both sides not getting it, alas I think they do, which is why the can will be kicked as long as it can. I honestly don’t know what the reaction will be when the next significant tax hikes happen: a yawn like when the “temporary” income tax increase was restored or an eruption like with the soda tax. It’s one reason I think Proft and company’s spending last election isn’t as wasteful as it looks now: it also works as a long game to stoke suburban voter anger. None of it creates a good environment to attract people and businesses here, even if the losses are only due to natural attrition (which I doubt).


  89. - Oswego Willy - Wednesday, Dec 19, 18 @ 2:15 pm:

    ===I thought I had referenced Rauner’s record as one of four critical points since 1970 that led us to the current crisis!!! Oh wait, I did, in the very next paragraph.===

    You wrote…

    ===Rauner’s eating the seed corn for key moments.===

    Even… “The Great Car-Nac”… would be clueless to a meaning.

    Also, as I explained…

    ===Rauner held the state hostage, at times possibly worse than his agenda, and with the help of Drury, Franks, and Dunkin, forced Illinois without a budget for an entire General Assembly.

    Rauner holding Illinois hostage was the feature, not the bug, if he couldn’t get his agenda… so the agenda turned to… squeezing the beast.

    Your comment is cute, as it’s not based on any realty to what Rauner “accomplished”

    The only real “fail” to squeeze the beast was not closing a state university. Rauner wanted that bad.===

    Your quip says little to nothing to that, but the three exclamation marks to point to your non-explanation of “sumptin-sumptin” are a nice touch, lol


  90. - Demoralized - Wednesday, Dec 19, 18 @ 2:35 pm:

    City Zen

    You can always be counted on to come up with some half snarky comment about what people make.


  91. - muon - Wednesday, Dec 19, 18 @ 2:42 pm:

    Occam - The number 114,154 is not a gross number, it’s the net domestic migration for last year. It is estimated from two numbers, the number of people who moved to Illinois from other states minus the number of people who moved out of Illinois to other states. The difference between those two numbers can be as important as the difference in median income between domestic and international migration.

    The uptick in the net domestic migration in 2014 could be due to either the in-migration or the out-migration. If the in-migration jumped downward that suggests that the state had a problem in population retention compared to pre-2013. If the out-migration jumped upward it suggests that the state had a problem with attracting new residents, often due to a lack of job creation. Moving the state forward successfully requires understanding which part shifted early this decade and addressing that.


  92. - Blue Dog Dem - Wednesday, Dec 19, 18 @ 2:50 pm:

    45,118 is now the number. Two neighbors heading to Kentucky Lake area. They claim because of high property taxes. Dunno. But their share of income tax will be missed.


  93. - cover - Wednesday, Dec 19, 18 @ 2:52 pm:

    = funny how elected leaders on BOTH sides just dont get it..i fear they never will until it finally implodes =

    Isn’t this the same sort of “logic” often heard from die-hard Trump supporters? Anger is not a governing strategy.


  94. - JS Mill - Wednesday, Dec 19, 18 @ 3:02 pm:

    @CZ you are too easy to bait and always so easy to predict on this issue.

    You obviously don’t know why.

    I will spot you the answer. Poverty. Urban Povert in particular.

    Since you brought up pensions I can add that Tier 2 has added to the cost as did the funding crisis. Illinois is producing about 75% fewer educators than it did just 5 years ago.

    As a free marketer you know that when demand is met with scarcity the thing in demand gets more costly.

    Today’s lesson is free of charge by the way.

    Happy holidays my friend.


  95. - Bobby - Wednesday, Dec 19, 18 @ 3:13 pm:

    Then stop voting 4 the same yahoos every election?? Stop listening to the lies. The sky won’t fall, the children will be fine, and the union folk will always vote blue….


  96. - muon - Wednesday, Dec 19, 18 @ 3:14 pm:

    I can partially answer the question I posed about the breakdown of the net domestic migration. It’s partial because the Census does estimate the numbers of people moving between states each year, but they do it through a different data set - the American Community Survey and it’s only through 2017. Nonetheless it provides some interesting results. The numbers are in thousands.

    Year : In : Out
    2010 : 204 : 278
    2011 : 216 : 269
    2012 : 209 : 278
    2013 : 224 : 305
    2014 : 210 : 323
    2015 : 210 : 338
    2016 : 204 : 346
    2017 : 195 : 339

    What I see is that except for 2013 and 2017 the number of people moving in from other states has remained about the same throughout the decade. But in 2013 and 2014 the number of people moving out of Illinois to other states climbed steadily and reached a level in 2015 that now seems to hold steady. That suggests that somewhere back in 2013 and 2014 the state developed a significant new source of outmigration that has not been addressed.


  97. - Bobby - Wednesday, Dec 19, 18 @ 3:15 pm:

    Oh,a d when they say ” we need to look at new revenue sources”, that’s code for new taxes..just not in a. Election year.


  98. - Bobby - Wednesday, Dec 19, 18 @ 3:30 pm:

    . That suggests that somewhere back in 2013 and 2014 the state developed a significant new source of outmigration that has not been addressed………..then stop using Rauner as an excuse for e eryrhing a d start addressing the issue.


  99. - thoughts matter - Wednesday, Dec 19, 18 @ 3:45 pm:

    ==Glad you asked. Minnesota started Tier 2 pension benefits in 1989. Minnesota teachers also have to work 5 extra years to reach full vesting, which is 5 less years than Illinois teachers. They also use their last 5 salaries (not 4) to determine their pension. ==

    If I am looking at this correctly, you are comparing IL tier to their tier 2. Suggest you compare our tier 2 to theirs, instead of apples and oranges.


  100. - thoughts matter - Wednesday, Dec 19, 18 @ 3:48 pm:

    IL Tier 1 is what I meant after the word comparing


  101. - Da Big Bad Wolf - Wednesday, Dec 19, 18 @ 4:22 pm:

    ==45,118 is now the number. Two neighbors heading to Kentucky Lake area.==
    But 45,116 was never really the number. The miniCensuses have such a high MOE they are not very useful. So the population of Illinois could actually have an increase or a greater decrease.


  102. - City Zen - Wednesday, Dec 19, 18 @ 4:23 pm:

    @JS Mill

    So it’s demographics? Sadly, I’m not allowed to point that out here when comparing the two states, lest I be vilified. But I agree our demographics require additional spend. But Minnesota is doing so great.

    ==Illinois is producing about 75% fewer educators than it did just 5 years ago.==

    Good thing the JOLTS reports show public education sector still has the lowest turnover among all job sectors. We have more educators and lowest student/teacher ratios today than even recorded in our nation’s history. I’m sure we’ll figure out a way to overcome whatever shortages come our way. Until then, no more ERI’s. That said, I cannot force someone to teach in Taylorville/Cairo/Cahokia anymore than I can force a network engineer or dentist to work there as well.

    A merry season to you as well.

    ==You can always be counted on to come up with some half snarky comment about what people make.==

    I thought it was arrogance?

    A merry season to you as well.


  103. - muon - Wednesday, Dec 19, 18 @ 4:42 pm:

    ==The miniCensuses have such a high MOE they are not very useful. So the population of Illinois could actually have an increase or a greater decrease. ==

    The MOE for the total population from the 2017 estimate data I posted is +/- 5,000, and I would assume that the estimate for 2018 is similar. Since the annual decrease was 45,000 it is highly unlikely that there was an increase in population last year.


  104. - Da Big Bad Wolf - Wednesday, Dec 19, 18 @ 6:01 pm:

    The American Community survey only has a confidence level of 90%. Since the population of Illinois is 12.8 million that means the number could be off one 1280000. That’s over a million people, not 5000 people.
    Here is a paper suggesting American Community Survey might be off as much as 25%.
    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4344219/


  105. - Blue Dog Dem - Wednesday, Dec 19, 18 @ 8:13 pm:

    Wonder if that correlates to two congressional districts yet.


  106. - Anonymous - Wednesday, Dec 19, 18 @ 8:22 pm:

    BDD…at 700K people per district, there might only be 4 districts outside of greater Chicagoland.


  107. - muon - Wednesday, Dec 19, 18 @ 10:11 pm:

    Da Big Bad Wolf - the paper you cite describes MOE problems at the census tract level and the need to aggregate them to larger geographies to be meaningful. They note that as the geography gets larger the MOE is reduced. Aggregation at the state level does not have that problem, and the MOE quoted is a good assessment of the accuracy of the estimate.


  108. - church lady - Wednesday, Dec 19, 18 @ 11:09 pm:

    Oh, the Trib and Kass delight in these population stats. Keep reading their stuff and you will bellieve that Illinois is the most awful place and everyone is fleeing. The state that is losing the most population Percentage wise is W. Virginia. Doubt if its the taxes that are driving people out. It’s the loss of the mining jobs. Also, W. Virgina is a VERY conservative state, so it’s not creeping “libral-ism” thats a problem.
    And, yes, we have high property taxes around Cook/DuPage/Kane counties, but that’s determined locally and mostly costly school taxes.
    Finally, Illinois is an older state and our infrastructure needs improvement. It costs money.


  109. - Anon - Thursday, Dec 20, 18 @ 1:22 am:

    Nice chart but it does not reflect all the illegal aliens who have come into the state. Easily offsets the decline.


  110. - ISU alum - Thursday, Dec 20, 18 @ 6:43 am:

    Illinois, love it or leave it. We don’t want people here that do not like our state anyway. You can leave your job here for someone else.


  111. - Anonymous - Thursday, Dec 20, 18 @ 6:47 am:

    @Sue “Anon- you truly seem to be challenged- comparing us to Wyoming due to our size?” Well I called the difference a blip. In less subjective terms, 45116 of Wyoming’s population would be 7%. 45116 of Illinois’s population would be .4%.
    “And 41k is a huge number of people” Well to invite over to your house for eggnog, yes. For Illinois to lose, no.
    “You are always screaming about facts but never want to acknowledge when the facts are confirming that the State is poorly managed and people are voting with their feet.”
    I’m always screaming about the facts? How does one scream on a blog? I said nothing about whether the state is poorly managed or not. But even a state with a population increase can be poorly managed.


  112. - Anonymous - Thursday, Dec 20, 18 @ 9:18 am:

    Many of the posts correctly cite Rauner, but over-weigh his impact. He alone didn’t create the pension mess; it predated him. This population trends will most likely continue into JBs term.


  113. - Da Big Bad Wolf - Thursday, Dec 20, 18 @ 11:09 am:

    muon, I couldn’t find where you got that number of 5000. I don’t think it is humanly possible to count almost 13 million people and only be off by 5000.

    The American Community Survey has a confidence rate of 10% on their website. On the US Census website in the methodology tab they are proud of thei mini Censuses only being off 3% of the US Census (which has its own MOE). 3% of 12.8 million is 384,000 people. Assuming the US Census to be perfect (it’s not) the Illinois population could be 338,884 more people or 429,116 less people.


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