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Preckwinkle poll has her leading in first round and runoff

Thursday, Dec 20, 2018 - Posted by Rich Miller

* From the Toni Preckwinkle campaign

Our poll finds Toni Preckwinkle currently runs first among the field of mayoral candidates, attracting support from 22 percent of voters. Susana Mendoza (12 percent), Bill Daley (10 percent), and Paul Vallas (10 percent) are locked in a close contest for second place while all other candidates are currently attracting only single-digit support and 19 percent of voters remain undecided. […]

Our poll additionally finds Preckwinkle well positioned in a runoff election and leads both Bill Daley and Susana Mendoza in hypothetical head-to-head match-ups. Preckwinkle leads Daley by an 18-point margin, attracting 49 percent of the vote while Daley attracts 31 percent and 20 percent of voters are undecided. A race against Mendoza proves more competitive but Preckwinkle leads with 42 percent of the vote while 39 percent are [for Mendoza].

Click here for the full memo and methodology.

The big takeaway for me is that yesterday’s poll and today’s show the most competitive runoff race is between Preckwinkle and Mendoza. There’s still plenty of time for someone to catch fire from below or someone to flame out from above. Bill Daley’s millions in campaign cash may very well help him make a run of it. John Kass, however, thinks Preckwinkle, Mendoza and Daley should all get out of the race because reasons.

Monica Trevino from the Preckwinkle campaign…

The campaign is encouraged by the early polling results that demonstrate the broad base of support for Toni Preckwinkle. Chicagoans clearly recognize Toni’s strong record of standing up to the Good Old Boys Club and fighting for change. We are working to carry our momentum forward and bring the change that Chicago voters want.

* Meanwhile, from a Preckwinkle fundraising e-mail

I’ll cut right to the chase. We have a chance, right now, to help a sex-trafficking victim avoid a life sentence in prison. Her name is Cyntoia Brown. In 2004, as a 16 year old, Cyntoia killed her would-be rapist in self defense. She was a child. And instead of seeing her as a survivor of sex-trafficking, she was criminalized and convicted of first-degree murder, sentenced to life, now is being forced to serve 51 more years before there could be any possibility of release.

And then Preckwinkle goes on to ask for a $3 contribution to her own campaign fund. There’s no action requested on Cyntoia Brown.

* Unsolicited advice: Don’t make slam-dunk predictions. From December 3rd

Burton Odelson, a lawyer for former Chicago schools CEO Paul Vallas, said he didn’t bother to challenge Mendoza’s petitions because “that’s a done deal. She’s going to be way below” the 12,500 minimum.

Former state Sen. Rickey Hendon, the campaign manager for businessman Willie Wilson, agreed.

“They’re going to get her,” he said.

And then there was this doozy.

* The Sun-Times took a look at who circulated petitions for Ald. Ed Burke

Burke’s volunteers included 23 who, in addition to helping to get him on the ballot, collected 1,351 signatures for Gery Chico, a longtime Burke ally who is among the 21 candidates vying to succeed Mayor Rahm Emanuel. […]

Another Burke volunteer, Michael J. Synowiecki, gathered 121 signatures for mayoral candidate Susana Mendoza, who was recently won re-election as Illinois’ state comptroller. In a ceremony performed by Burke’s wife, Illinois Supreme Court Justice Anne Burke, Mendoza and her husband were married at the Burkes’ home in December 2011, a week before they were married by a priest in Joliet.

* And Paul Vallas held a press conference today to go after Bill Daley

Vallas served as Richard M. Daley’s revenue director and budget director before being dispatched to the Chicago Public Schools as CEO in 1995 as part of a dream-team pairing with then school board President Gery Chico.

At one point during that period, Vallas recalled a retreat was held for the mayor’s cabinet.

“The mayor didn’t attend that retreat. Bill Daley ran that whole retreat. He was there. He was like chairman of the board. He’s been his brother’s closest adviser for decades so, who are we trying to kid?” Vallas said.

“I don’t think there has been any major decisions that have been made in this city that Bill hasn’t had some influence on.”

* Related…

* Daley starts the ball rolling on a series of televised mayoral debates

* Most volunteers who got signatures for embattled Ald. Burke can’t vote for him

* All seven candidates challenging incumbent Ald. Jason Ervin were bounced from the 28th Ward ballot in 2015. This time, four candidates face challenges — could it happen again?


  1. - Grand Avenue - Thursday, Dec 20, 18 @ 1:59 pm:

    Whichever one of Burke’s opponents went through all of Burke’s sheets to give that information to the Sun-Times does not know how to efficiently allocate campaign resources.

    What’s next - most of Ed Burke’s $10 Million war chest came from donors with addresses outside the 14th Ward? I’m shocked I tells ya!

  2. - Shytown - Thursday, Dec 20, 18 @ 2:04 pm:

    I’ll take the CFL poll over Toni’s poll any day but nice try Team Toni. Daley and Mendoza being neck and neck ain’t happening.

    And what’s up with that Toni fundraising email? That’s just offensive.

  3. - lake county democrat - Thursday, Dec 20, 18 @ 2:08 pm:

    In a Preckwinkle/Mendoza run-off, there’s a lot more material for attack ads on Preckwinkle. What is she going to counter “broke campaign pledge, tax hikes, soda tax, attacked poor through support of Berrios” with? “Barely got enough signatures?” Madigan toady?

  4. - TNR - Thursday, Dec 20, 18 @ 2:10 pm:

    The Preckwinkle solicitation is, um, interesting.

    Seems to me, if she wants to make changes to the criminal justice system and influence who is and who isn’t prosecuted, she’d be better off remaining county board prez. Sure, she’d run the police department as mayor. But the issues mentioned in her email are mostly controlled by county judges and prosecutors.

  5. - Oswego Willy - Thursday, Dec 20, 18 @ 2:17 pm:

    The end game for Preckwinkle and Mendoza is to be 1-2.

    “Survive and advance”, the NCAA tournament mantra.

    Get to 19-23%… vote those voters… then it begins in earnest.

    After January 1st… then it’s on. Daley too.

  6. - Goner - Thursday, Dec 20, 18 @ 2:19 pm:

    Toni’s toast. Her home-cooked poll can only eke out a 3-point lead in a runoff? Her whole campaign seems like it’s running scared. Paranoia reigns supreme. I wouldn’t be shocked if it was Daley vs Mendoza in the end.

  7. - The Captain - Thursday, Dec 20, 18 @ 2:21 pm:

    It wasn’t just Odelson and Hendon who were sure Mendoza wouldn’t qualify for the ballot, Preckwinkle’s people were overly confident as well. That tweet didn’t age well.

  8. - Touré's Latte - Thursday, Dec 20, 18 @ 2:42 pm:

    Saw a Bill Daley commercial last night. Do not remember what it said. Maybe NOT the desired reaction.

  9. - Sonny - Thursday, Dec 20, 18 @ 2:53 pm:

    Toni hasn’t had to battle in a long time and she’s carrying loads of baggage these days.

  10. - WSJ Paywall - Thursday, Dec 20, 18 @ 2:58 pm:

    Mendoza is a formidable candidate, but there’s no doubt she’s underwhelmed as a campaigner in this race so far.

  11. - Stark - Thursday, Dec 20, 18 @ 3:08 pm:

    Surprised Preckwinkle hasn’t found a way to create a regressive tax on the people who want Ms. Brown released. /s

  12. - City Guy - Thursday, Dec 20, 18 @ 3:21 pm:

    Isn’t voting for Bill Daley the equivalent of voting for Jeb Bush? Dynasties have a shelf life, especially when they leave behind a big mess for others to clean up.

  13. - Shytown - Thursday, Dec 20, 18 @ 3:25 pm:

    == Mendoza is a formidable candidate, but there’s no doubt she’s underwhelmed as a campaigner in this race so far. ==

    Not according to independent polls…

  14. - Mike - Thursday, Dec 20, 18 @ 4:02 pm:

    Mendoza should and will win.

  15. - F for respect - Thursday, Dec 20, 18 @ 4:05 pm:

    Mendoza is one of the most relentless campaigners in the entire state

  16. - 100 percent city - Thursday, Dec 20, 18 @ 4:07 pm:

    you *

Sorry, comments for this post are now closed.

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