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Pritzker estimates FY20 deficit at $3.2 billion

Friday, Feb 8, 2019

* Press release…

In a report detailing the toll that former Gov. Bruce Rauner’s ideological warfare inflicted on Illinois, the Pritzker administration released a new report today detailing a budget gap for the upcoming fiscal year of $3.2 billion, 16 percent more than the Rauner administration estimated in November.

Digging Out: The Rauner Wreckage Report builds on and extends the work of the Illinois Comptroller’s Office, identifying even worse damage than previously known – particularly the true magnitude of the budget deficit and the backlog of bills – triple the amount of when Governor Rauner’s impasse began. Late payment interest penalties related to Rauner’s impasse have exceeded $1.25 billion, and interest on the refinancing of Rauner’s bill backlog will surpass $2 billion.

“Illinois will need years to dig out of the fiscal mess this administration inherited, and the road to recovery will begin with Governor Pritzker,” said report author Deputy Governor Dan Hynes, who oversees budget and economic issues for the administration. “The Pritzker administration will be honest and transparent about the challenges we face and put forward long-term plans and investments that will get our state on firm financial footing. Despite these challenges, we will propose a balanced budget that invests in education and human services that were decimated under the previous administration.”

The report goes on to detail the human and fiscal consequences of the historic budget crisis, a failed and prolonged dispute with AFSCME, the continued backsliding on pensions and chronic mismanagement of state government. With new revelations of failure coming nearly every week, the report also details previously unreported failures, such as failing to pay the rent for the Governor’s Washington, D.C. office and forfeiting millions in federal reimbursements for OSHA.

Among the countless missed opportunities in the report, the state’s late payment penalties have crowded out other investments. Namely:

    * Last year alone, the State paid out more than $700 million in late payment penalties – about what the state spends on the Department of Children and Family Services, or enough to hire at least 7,000 new teachers across the state.

    * Illinois’ general obligation bond ratings are the lowest among the states, costing more than $75 million a year in additional interest costs on bonds issued since 2017. That is the equivalent of an additional 25,000 MAP recipients per year since 2017 – or enough for MAP grants for every undergraduate student at SIU-Carbondale and Illinois State every year.

While a generation of future Illinoisans will be forced to deal with Gov. Rauner’s fiscal wreckage, the new administration will use its first budget to light a multi-year path forward to fiscal stability and a new prosperity for Illinois.

Additional details are available in the report.

* From the report

1. If left unaddressed, the State of Illinois’ general funds budget deficit for FY20 would be approximately $3.2 billion, roughly 16 percent higher than the Rauner administration officially estimated just three months ago.

2. The state’s debt associated with unpaid bills is nearly $15 billion: $7.9 billion in unpaid bills, $5.5 billion in backlog borrowing, $650 million in interfund borrowing and $500 million in estimated backpay for state workers. This is almost triple the amount outstanding before Governor Rauner’s impasse began.

3. Rauner’s failed and prolonged dispute with AFSCME over step increase wages has resulted in a court finding that he improperly withheld wages from state employees. The cost of his anti- union battle may total more than $500 million with the impact of compounded interest penalties.

4. The State’s projected unpaid bill backlog at the end of FY19 is likely to be $500 million more than previously stated, creating longer delays in vendor payment cycles and additional pressure on the provider community – and, most critically, the vulnerable Illinoisans they serve.

5. Interest alone on additional general obligation bonds attributable to the refinancing of Rauner’s bill backlog will exceed $2 billion.

6. Late Payment Interest Penalties that built up during the impasse exceeded $1.25 billion. Continued interest payments will likely exceed $60 million in FY19 in part because this year’s budget maintains a structural deficit that went unaddressed during Rauner’s term.

7. The State’s management and administrative infrastructure has deteriorated significantly, with major fiscal, legal and other critical positions unfilled for years. Reductions in staffing have affected public safety and social service programs.

8. The mismanagement of state contracts has allowed increased costs and lengthy project delays, resulting in, for example, information technology systems that don’t function effectively. This mismanagement severely impacts the administration and delivery of vital services, including healthcare. In some cases, it threatens the flow of federal reimbursement funds. The mismanagement extends to basic government functions like processing revenues and paying rent.

9. Tens of millions of dollars have been and will continue to be allocated to comply with court orders and consent decrees due to management failures to address the state’s most serious challenges.

…Adding… Good point…



Link is here.

- Posted by Rich Miller        

80 Comments »
  1. - Oswego Willy - Friday, Feb 8, 19 @ 10:09 am:

    “Thompson Pivot… engaged”


  2. - City Zen - Friday, Feb 8, 19 @ 10:16 am:

    “The Rauner Wreckage Report”

    Sorry, governors own, as they say. It’s your deficit, JB. Just as Bruce owned Quinn’s deficit.

    You wants it? You gets it.


  3. - Steve - Friday, Feb 8, 19 @ 10:17 am:

    What’s amazing is: there’s not a national recession going on.


  4. - Al - Friday, Feb 8, 19 @ 10:19 am:

    Yeah, that all sounds about right. The last administration was an epic failure.


  5. - Perrid - Friday, Feb 8, 19 @ 10:20 am:

    City Zen, in a year (let alone 4) he’ll own it, and what he’s done to address it. Rauner still owns it now. Voters are simple but they aren’t that simple.


  6. - Chicagonk - Friday, Feb 8, 19 @ 10:21 am:

    Not surprising that the strategy for the foreseeable future will be to continue to blame Rauner, but only partisan voters really care about blame games. Most Illinoisans just want a government that will fix the budget problems.


  7. - Montrose - Friday, Feb 8, 19 @ 10:21 am:

    “Sorry, governors own, as they say. It’s your deficit, JB. Just as Bruce owned Quinn’s deficit.

    You wants it? You gets it.”

    Are you suggesting JB is responsible for the decisions Rauner made the last four years? I don’t see this as JB saying its not his problem. Its him saying “look at the problem I now have to deal with.”


  8. - Oswego Willy - Friday, Feb 8, 19 @ 10:21 am:

    ===Sorry, governors own, as they say. It’s your deficit, JB. Just as Bruce owned Quinn’s deficit.

    You wants it? You gets it.===

    … which is why Pritzker is actually addressing these Rauner deficits, owning the need to correct Rauner’s failures, and owning the need of… needed revenues… as we will see a Thompson Pivot shortly to bridge “today” to a chance to get a progressive income tax.

    That’s called governing, and we all can argue the merits of these moves, these revenue options, but Pritzker *is* already owning his term… Rauner’s destruction is being owned by correcting it.


  9. - illini - Friday, Feb 8, 19 @ 10:23 am:

    I think many of us suspected that a report such as this would be damaging, but I doubt many of us expected these numbers to be as astronomical as they are. But then Rauner was not concerned about such details. These were not a part of his agenda.


  10. - Andrea Durbin - Friday, Feb 8, 19 @ 10:24 am:

    * Last year alone, the State paid out more than $700 million in late payment penalties – about what the state spends on the Department of Children and Family Services, or enough to hire at least 7,000 new teachers across the state.

    Meanwhile, we learned this week that overdue child abuse and neglect investigations have risen more than 35% since September. To be clear, as of last week, more than 1,700 abuse and neglect investigations have gone beyond the 60-day mark. Nearly 400 of those cases are allegations of abuse or neglect of children from birth to three years old. Investigators are carrying huge caseloads, far beyond their ability to process them. I fear for those children and pray every day we do not see a horrific death in the news and learn that a hotline call was made but that we failed to protect him or her.

    Never forget: this destruction was willful and deliberately chosen as a “wedge issue” to separate Democrats from unions. Even though the budget impasse is over, some hostages are still waiting to be released.


  11. - City Zen - Friday, Feb 8, 19 @ 10:26 am:

    ==City Zen, in a year (let alone 4) he’ll own it==

    That’s not how the job works.

    ==Are you suggesting JB is responsible for the decisions Rauner made the last four years? ==

    Regardless of who’s responsible, it’s JB’s deficit. All the pseudo-marketing in downtown Chicago won’t change that.


  12. - Iggy - Friday, Feb 8, 19 @ 10:27 am:

    Obviously an increased gas tax is on the horizon. Legalized sports gambling and Cannabis should help bring in some dollars. Now tell me what you are going to cut.


  13. - Anonymous - Friday, Feb 8, 19 @ 10:29 am:

    Fine. What are you going to do about it? We seem adept at wringing our hands and fretting about how bad the situation is and pointing fingers at the other guy. With new leadership, we need new approaches. All I have seen so far is the spending of more money we don’t have.


  14. - Oswego Willy - Friday, Feb 8, 19 @ 10:29 am:

    (Sigh)

    - City Zen -

    What is your point? Honestly? Sincerely?

    Is your point… anger?

    Identifying where we are and how we got there, is one step, doing the governing to fix it is the second and most important step that Pritzker will own because governors own their terms.

    Is that too difficult if a concept for you abd the anger, or what is the best way to help you see what’s going on?


  15. - Demoralized - Friday, Feb 8, 19 @ 10:30 am:

    ==it’s JB’s deficit==

    It’s his to fix right now, but it isn’t his creation.

    It’s a good idea for him to set the narrative right off the bat that he’s been left with a mess to clean up and to show how the guy before helped create the mess he now has to try and clean up.


  16. - Angry Republican - Friday, Feb 8, 19 @ 10:31 am:

    Meh. JB obviously is laying out his 10 point plan for a tax increase (progressive or otherwise). Either that, or he is reusing Rauner’s blame Madigan tactic.


  17. - Harvest76 - Friday, Feb 8, 19 @ 10:31 am:

    Governors own, that is correct, but not 2 weeks after inauguration. What JB is doing now is an accounting of the problem. What he will own is everything that gets better or worse from here.


  18. - Oswego Willy - Friday, Feb 8, 19 @ 10:32 am:

    ===It’s a good idea for him to set the narrative right off the bat that he’s been left with a mess to clean up and to show how the guy before helped create the mess he now has to try and clean up.===

    … a Thompson Pivot, if you will.

    We’ve seen this movie before, the question will be answered how Pritzker goes about fixing it, and owning those decisions politically and governmentally


  19. - 44th - Friday, Feb 8, 19 @ 10:32 am:

    $700mm in late payment penalties out the door. This is like running up max credit card debt and not even paying the minimums on time. only broke people do that, and it buries them even further obviosly.


  20. - El Conquistador - Friday, Feb 8, 19 @ 10:36 am:

    Accused others…


  21. - NeverPoliticallyCorrect - Friday, Feb 8, 19 @ 10:36 am:

    First, Pritzker didn’t have a thing to do with this mess we find ourselves in. Second, it’s political posturing to call it the Rauner Wreckage. Every state legislator who refused to negotiate with Rauner and who have let these problems build up over decades has a hand in the problem. Yes that includes Mr. Madigan. But to the winners go the history whitewashing so let’s hope for something better from Democratics this time around.


  22. - Smalls - Friday, Feb 8, 19 @ 10:36 am:

    Can someone answer this. I know we have tier 2 for pensions. And I know the supreme court has said that the free health insurance for retirees can not be diminished. But has the state eliminated free health insurance in retirement for new hires? I don’t remember ever hearing about that, so I presume that is still a benefit accruing to new hires.


  23. - Moe Berg - Friday, Feb 8, 19 @ 10:41 am:

    Very encouraged to see the Pritzker administration tallying the damage and naming the person who caused it. That is what accountability looks like.

    I hope they will go beyond only the numbers to document other ways the Rauner wrecking crew weakened the state through malfeasance and neglect.

    It’s the only way to measure progress and, after four years, begin to hold Pritzker accountable for what he has done or failed to do.


  24. - City Zen - Friday, Feb 8, 19 @ 10:41 am:

    ==Identifying where we are and how we got there, is one step==

    Agreed, assessing the current state of JB’s deficit is an important step.


  25. - Honeybear - Friday, Feb 8, 19 @ 10:42 am:

    Thankful, so thankful
    that the 500 million (aprox)
    in
    illegally withheld
    contractually owed wages
    has not been forgotten
    or swept under the rug.
    Thank you
    It’s sometimes very hard to be patient
    for justice.
    But the acknowledgment
    of the wage theft.
    Gives me (only speaking for me) that patience
    a bit more strength and faith
    that I haven’t been forgotten.
    That justice for me and the other victims
    of Rauner
    Is on Pritzkers agenda.
    Not being held hostage
    by an agenda.
    but part of an agenda.
    That means a lot.
    A seat at the table, not on the menu.
    And it’s smart.
    Since it’s frontliners like me,
    That are working every day
    to get us out of the hole.


  26. - Illinois Resident - Friday, Feb 8, 19 @ 10:43 am:

    Easy fixes when implemented. Progressive income tax. Cannabis legalization. Problem solved.


  27. - Oswego Willy - Friday, Feb 8, 19 @ 10:43 am:

    ===Every state legislator who refused to negotiate with Rauner and who have let these problems build up over decades has a hand in the problem.===

    No. Good try. No.

    Franks, Drury, and Dunkin, with Rauner held a state hostage.

    Rauner never had 60 or 30, so Rauber used… Franks, Drury, abd Dunkin to stop governing and 71 to save Illinois from Rauner.

    ===whitewashing===

    Your projecting the false narrative then calling others on whitewashing is embarrassingly delicious.


  28. - West Town TB - Friday, Feb 8, 19 @ 10:44 am:

    Ideology is only part of choosing a governor. You have to be able to manage the state. Hopefully JB will be better.
    What a waste.


  29. - Anonymous - Friday, Feb 8, 19 @ 10:44 am:

    This is Pritzker’s way of telling the tax payer, you are going to be taxed more and trying to blame Rauner for it.


  30. - Oswego Willy - Friday, Feb 8, 19 @ 10:45 am:

    ===assessing the current state of JB’s deficit===

    lol, what budget did JB sign?

    Your anger is palpable.


  31. - Demoralized - Friday, Feb 8, 19 @ 10:47 am:

    ==assessing the current state of JB’s deficit==

    It’s his to fix but not his yet. There is a difference. And you’re smart enough to know that.


  32. - SSL - Friday, Feb 8, 19 @ 10:49 am:

    It’s fair for JB to summarize what he’s up against, and it is a bunch. The can kicking has been epic. And he deserves a period of time to get his bearings.

    I just want to know what the solution really looks like. Put a stake in the ground and let us know what’s going to address the mess you just described JB? How much from legalized marijuana? Are you going to expand gambling and allow sports betting? Will you raise the flat tax until you can get the progressive tax, and what will those rates be? Are you going to tax retirement income? Will you increase the gas tax, and by how much? Where will you reduce expenses?

    If JB can outline a plan in the next three months, that would be great.


  33. - Illinois Resident - Friday, Feb 8, 19 @ 10:57 am:

    -This is Pritzker’s way of telling the tax payer, you are going to be taxed more and trying to blame Rauner for it.-

    Yes, the rich are going to have to start paying more Illinois taxes soon.


  34. - don the legend - Friday, Feb 8, 19 @ 11:00 am:

    Another inane Anonymous comment:
    This is Pritzker’s way of telling the tax payer, you are going to be taxed more and trying to blame Rauner for it.

    Have you ever taken on a new job or responsibility and not taken the time to evaluate your present condition? Failure to do so is incompetence and a sure first step to continued failure.

    Pick a name to put to that silly comment, maybe something like ‘Governor Junk’ or ‘Governor I’m Not in Charge’ or simply ‘Bruce’.


  35. - Nick - Friday, Feb 8, 19 @ 11:06 am:

    Not a good starting place for the unions.
    Afscme and the teamsters will be working on a new contract
    Can’t see JB being able to give them much


  36. - Norseman - Friday, Feb 8, 19 @ 11:15 am:

    That Rauner left IL in worse fiscal shape than when he started is not a surprise. We all knew he was shorting a lot of people and programs to sustain his impasse. The only true surprise is the dollar amount.


  37. - Iggy - Friday, Feb 8, 19 @ 11:17 am:

    =That are working every day
    to get us out of the hole.=

    show your work


  38. - Pick a Name - Friday, Feb 8, 19 @ 11:21 am:

    Jay Robert needs to call MJM and see what to do. A progressive income tax, an increasing minimum wage and weed income isn’t going to get it done.


  39. - Demoralized - Friday, Feb 8, 19 @ 11:23 am:

    ==Jay Robert needs to call MJM and see what to do==

    Still playing the Rauner “I’m not in charge” game I see. Perhaps we’ll now have an adult in the Governor’s Mansion who can manage to work on governing instead of doing your level of whining.


  40. - Honeybear - Friday, Feb 8, 19 @ 11:24 am:

    Nick,
    To me, not speaking for AFSCME, it’s not about what I can get, what Pritzker can give.
    It’s about
    Good faith
    Fairness
    Negotiation
    Honoring Collective Bargaining

    We negotiate hard
    JB negotiates hard

    We pound out a contract
    You are advocating a point that makes us
    seem greedy
    In it for ourselves

    It’s not what I believe public service is or should be.
    JB plays hard but fair. We play hard but fair.
    Hopefully that results in what’s fair
    for the State of Illinois.

    That being said
    Pritzker must totally move fast away from Rauners desire to increase our healthcare costs 120%.
    I’m personally okay with paying more.
    But I can’t pay 120% more.
    Pritzker must let folks know that he embraces
    what is fair
    not what is designed
    to destroy a union.


  41. - Anotheretiree - Friday, Feb 8, 19 @ 11:24 am:

    I fear that a recession will be fatal to Illinois finances. Rauner may have pushed us over the edge and now we’re just waiting for the Wil E Coyote moment to start to fall. AGSCME should agree to a a freeze.


  42. - Blue Dog Dem - Friday, Feb 8, 19 @ 11:31 am:

    Because …..Rauner. you get to use that one for a year and then smart people will have you figured out.


  43. - Jibba - Friday, Feb 8, 19 @ 11:34 am:

    “JB’s deficit”

    What nonsense.

    CZ ramps up for the 2022 election even before JB’s first budget address.


  44. - Anonymous - Friday, Feb 8, 19 @ 11:38 am:

    Taxing the rich alone is not going to solve Illinois financial mess. It will require increased tax on the middle class in addition. After new future increased out migration, who will they tax then?


  45. - Anon - Friday, Feb 8, 19 @ 11:39 am:

    When people in Illinois get hammered by the new policy on SALT when they do their taxes this year there will be zero appetite for new taxes at the state level.

    The same group JB wants to go after is already getting hammered this year because of the new policy.

    We are literally a recession away from the state being ungovernable.

    The $3.2 Billion deficit is before even one new dollar is spent, and there are tons of new spending promises that were made that people intend to collect on.

    Weed taxes and a progressive income tax isn’t nearly enough to deal with the scope of the problem we are in.

    That realization sinking in will be the scariest thing of all, because until now it has always been assumed the progressive income tax will make all our problems go away.


  46. - Pick a Name - Friday, Feb 8, 19 @ 11:40 am:

    Not whining at all Demo. JB’s never been in a position like this, not even close. He needs to get direction from someone who has vast amounts of experience.

    That someone has been in office since I was a high school senior. Now, I am 65 years old, a senior citizen.


  47. - Steward As Well.... - Friday, Feb 8, 19 @ 11:47 am:

    Smalls 10:36am - Yes to your question as of now.


  48. - Honeybear - Friday, Feb 8, 19 @ 11:53 am:

    Anotherretiree- totally disagree with you there.
    It’s the
    exact time
    to pay the workforce
    fair wages
    to stop the
    loss of institutional knowledge/experience
    loss of experienced good public servants
    we need good wages
    to attract and retain
    good hardworking state employees.
    We are so shortstaffed
    the workloads are insane.
    stop the bleeding.
    Good contract
    Fair wages
    Fair benefits
    equals
    a stable workforce
    equals
    the means to stop digging when you’re in a hole.
    No CEO wants a crappy workforce
    except Rauner


  49. - A 400lb. Guy on a bed - Friday, Feb 8, 19 @ 11:55 am:

    I’m sure that the IPI will come up with the money.


  50. - Einherjar - Friday, Feb 8, 19 @ 12:14 pm:

    Gov Pritzker must remember that Rauner did NOT do this alone. There are Raunerite enablers still serving in the Pritzker administration. Some are wanting senior roles in the Pritzker administration. The very same people who hid the damage, made up the numbers, concealed the truth, should be removed, not rewarded. Governors own the choices made by those underneath them.
    Keeping Rauners damage makers does not square with blaming Rauner for the damage.


  51. - Jibba - Friday, Feb 8, 19 @ 12:16 pm:

    These are the exact reasons that I have been saying since prior to the election that all the new spending promises were not going to be fulfilled. Neither will JB likely do much about property taxes, since they aren’t really his immediate problem.

    He will have his hands full making a balanced budget next year, even with bonding of the old debt. Bring on weed, gambling, broadened tax bases, gas tax, and anything else that is politically doable. We also may need some things that are harder, such as taxing services and maybe even a retirement income tax (with very high exemptions).

    Are there really any other ways? If you say “waste, fraud, and abuse,” please give specific line items and amounts, thanks.


  52. - Grandson of Man - Friday, Feb 8, 19 @ 12:45 pm:

    Great that Pritzker admits Rauner’s wrongdoing in ripping off state workers. It’s time to begin paying the workers the steps and longevity pay they’re owed, for the workers and taxpayers. It may or may not be paid all at once, but it should start right away. This is growing our debt and is flat-out owed to workers who honored their end of the deal.

    “Taxing the rich alone is not going to solve Illinois financial mess.”

    Agreed. It’s not the sole reason to raise taxes on the rich in Illinois. It needs to be done for morality’s sake. We can’t continue to expose the state and its workforce to harsher financial conditions while taxing the rich at the same rate as everyone else.


  53. - Nonbeleiver - Friday, Feb 8, 19 @ 12:47 pm:

    @- Illinois Resident -
    “Yes, the rich are going to have to start paying more Illinois taxes soon.”

    How would you define ‘rich’ and what would be theie tax rate vs the ‘non- rich’?

    A serious question on my part.


  54. - RNUG - Friday, Feb 8, 19 @ 12:50 pm:

    == But has the state eliminated free health insurance in retirement for new hires? ==

    Not that I know of, but they could. However, it would be a bit of a double-edged sword. Having the State health insurance in retirement lets employees retire before the Medicare age of 65. That stops the accrual of additional pension benefits and allows the State to replace a high paid employee at the end of their career with a lower paid new hire.

    Take it away, and you will find more State employees staying until age 65 when they qualify for Medicare, racking up a higher pension when they do retire.

    I’ll note the primary reason that the 20 year retiree health insurance provision was put in place was to slow down employee turnover and try to retain experienced people between the 8 year and 20 year mark. It, like the Tier 1 pension, was supposed to offset the (then?) lower wages.

    I hate studies, but there may have to be one to guesstimate if eliminating the retiree health insurance benefit would be a good or bad move in the overall financial scheme of state expenses.


  55. - Grandson of Man - Friday, Feb 8, 19 @ 1:00 pm:

    “How would you define ‘rich’ and what would be theie tax rate vs the ‘non- rich’?”

    For starters, the rates would most likely be more generous than Iowa and Minnesota, whose top tax rates start at much lower incomes. Maybe 9% or slightly more for $1 million or more as the highest rate, 8% for a half-million or more, or thereabouts.

    I would like to see the highest rate go to those who make $10 million or more a year, say 10%. It would not hurt the Pritzkers, Rauners and Griffins of Illinois, who can so much easier afford to pay, than cuts to state workers that can really hurt.


  56. - Nonbeleiver - Friday, Feb 8, 19 @ 1:15 pm:

    @ Grandson of Man

    Thank you for responding with at least some specifics.

    I assume you are not requesting higher tax rates for those other than which you have specified.


  57. - Nonbeleiver - Friday, Feb 8, 19 @ 1:18 pm:

    - Anonymous - Friday, Feb 8, 19 @ 11:38 am:

    Taxing the rich alone is not going to solve Illinois financial mess. It will require increased tax on the middle class in addition. After new future increased out migration, who will they tax then?

    You are correct. Unfortunately this is the reality that few politicians are willing to be forthright about. Up to now it is always about the ‘rich’ and I do not believe that will the savior answer.


  58. - Smalls - Friday, Feb 8, 19 @ 1:41 pm:

    Steward @11:47, thanks. I know there it does not pay immediate dividends, but it is an easy target with significant long term savings. Eliminate retiree healthcare for new employees.


  59. - Grandson of Man - Friday, Feb 8, 19 @ 1:43 pm:

    “I assume you are not requesting higher tax rates for those other than which you have specified.”

    Of course I won’t be the one proposing rates, but I think there should be higher rates for higher incomes, going down as incomes get lower. The key is giving a tax cut for a large or vast majority of Illinoisans.

    This isn’t a fiscal panacea, just like legal marijuana revenue isn’t a panacea. It’s creating a fairer structure and placing the more/most vulnerable in a safer long-term position. It’s a moral stance.


  60. - Nonbeleiver - Friday, Feb 8, 19 @ 1:53 pm:

    On 2019-01-17 04:59, goudy@nova1net.com wrote:

    Year Population GRF

    1970 11.1 million $2.907B

    2000 12.43 million $22.976B

    2019 12.8 million est $36.277B

    Inflation 1970 - 2018 547%

    Inflation 2000 - 2018 45.82%

    Anyone can check my data but the above is what I found using various state sources.

    There is little question that the state has vastly increased its revenue and expenditures well above population growth and inflation.

    Anyway, some data to consider.


  61. - Oswego Willy - Friday, Feb 8, 19 @ 1:55 pm:

    ===There is little question that the state has vastly increased its revenue and expenditures well above population growth and inflation.===

    Very well, where do you cut?


  62. - walker - Friday, Feb 8, 19 @ 1:56 pm:

    Wow! A governor reporting accurate numbers!


  63. - Nonbeleiver - Friday, Feb 8, 19 @ 2:12 pm:

    Where do you cut?

    That is what should be discussed and debated. I I have already pointed out some details on this matter and invite others to do the same.

    Just wanted to point out that revenue has increased significantly over the decades.


  64. - Oswego Willy - Friday, Feb 8, 19 @ 2:14 pm:

    === I have already pointed out some details on this matter and invite others to do the same===

    What are the highlights of you cuts. A thumbnail.


  65. - Chicagonk - Friday, Feb 8, 19 @ 2:17 pm:

    @Nonbeliever - The flip side of those figures is that the 1970 number and 2000 number should have been a lot higher if politicians were actually doing their jobs and funding the pensions.


  66. - Heaven help us - Friday, Feb 8, 19 @ 2:40 pm:

    Raising taxes, before the multi-year progressive tax exercise is complete, is inevitable. First year a progressive tax could be collected would be FY22. That’s two and a half fiscal years from now.

    ‘How high will the flat tax go’ is the question.

    Pritzker is spending more, even knowing he’s $3.2B behind. Does he have spending brakes in his style of management? Illinois is going to find out. He doesn’t appear to say ‘no’ often.


  67. - Ridgelander - Friday, Feb 8, 19 @ 3:07 pm:

    —-“I assume you are not requesting higher tax rates for those other than which you have specified.”

    Of course I won’t be the one proposing rates, but I think there should be higher rates for higher incomes, going down as incomes get lower. The key is giving a tax cut for a large or vast majority of Illinoisans.

    “This isn’t a fiscal panacea, just like legal marijuana revenue isn’t a panacea. It’s creating a fairer structure and placing the more/most vulnerable in a safer long-term position. It’s a moral stance.—

    Although the past is certainly not a solid basis for predicting the future, the Illinois Senate is on record as to what they might regard as a possible graduated income tax, assuming the passage of a constitutional amendment that would allow it.
    I would certainly vote for a graduated tax that had rates like they were considering in April 2016.

    Please see Senate Amendment #1 to SB 518, 4/19/2016, 99th General Assembly.

    http://www.ilga.gov/legislation/BillStatus_pf.asp?DocNum=518&DocTypeID=SB&LegID=84481&GAID=13&SessionID=88&GA=99


  68. - JDuc - Friday, Feb 8, 19 @ 3:19 pm:

    Building the case for the impending tax increase


  69. - RNUG - Friday, Feb 8, 19 @ 3:52 pm:

    Being a bit cynical about it, if the flat income tax gets raised now, it will be easier to structure a progressive tax that would then give a break compared to the increased flat tax … which might still be an increase over today’s 4.95% rate.


  70. - Oswego Willy - Friday, Feb 8, 19 @ 3:57 pm:

    ===…if the flat income tax gets raised now, it will be easier to structure a progressive tax that would then give a break compared to the increased flat tax … which might still be an increase over today’s 4.95% rate===

    So glad you broke the seal.

    Yes, 100%, this was my thought;

    Raise the flat tax “now”, but by doing so, it massages the numbers to make that promise of “who gets a higher tax” work, as the new bar allows a middle area of “decline”

    That’s the play, been stewing about it for a while, waited fir someone to drag it out.


  71. - Nonbeleiver - Friday, Feb 8, 19 @ 4:10 pm:

    @Oswego Willy

    When the last tax increase was proposed I noted to freeze the budget and the additional income be s sunseted after four years and the additional income devoted 100% to paying back bills. This would have and would still save billions in interest. Naturally that was not done.

    NOW. Limit state budget to no more than 2% increases. Eliminate Medicaid services not required by federal law (Google- Illinois Medicaid Ballotpedia to see the list). Reduce pension contributions by 20% from previous funding for the next four years. Implement a 3% state services tax for five years (at which time legislative language would prevent it from being renewed) and use it to help pay back bills.

    At least these are some ideas. I hope that you receive them in the positive spirit I have provided.


  72. - Oswego Willy - Friday, Feb 8, 19 @ 4:15 pm:

    ===Eliminate Medicaid services===

    Find 60/30 and a governor to agree.

    That’s not a solution.

    Then there’s some that might have federal matching funds?

    Easy answer are usuall neither.


  73. - Oswego Willy - Friday, Feb 8, 19 @ 4:17 pm:

    I wanted this alone…

    ===At least these are some ideas. I hope that you receive them in the positive spirit I have provided.===

    Bud,

    You have to be pragmatic to the political.

    The Medicaid… getting 60 and 30, and a governor… I can’t see that.

    With respect.


  74. - Nonbeleiver - Friday, Feb 8, 19 @ 4:21 pm:

    @ZOswego Willy

    It’s a part of the solution although certainly only one component.

    I am not writing for the benefit of what the Governor or GA want. They have already shown, through many decades and political parties, that their actions are not particularly credible. And so, yes the nightmare of Illinois fiances will continue. We will be commenting upon this 5- 10 or more years from now.

    At least I have given some solid ideas which is more than most on this site or our political leaders do.


  75. - Oswego Willy - Friday, Feb 8, 19 @ 4:22 pm:

    ===I am not writing for the benefit of what the Governor or GA want. They have already shown, through many decades and political parties, that their actions are not particularly credible. And so, yes the nightmare of Illinois fiances will continue.==

    The reason they won’t be for it, again, the politics, the voters aren’t for it.


  76. - Oswego Willy - Friday, Feb 8, 19 @ 4:24 pm:

    ===At least I have given some solid ideas which is more than most on this site or our political leaders do.===

    They have to be politically pragmatic as well as thoughtful and fiscally sound.

    Bud, you’re looking at this mathematically.

    I am too.

    60/30 Governor.


  77. - Demoralized - Friday, Feb 8, 19 @ 4:31 pm:

    ==Eliminate Medicaid services not required by federal law ==

    That usually doesn’t turn out well. You’ll have those people flocking to emergency rooms to get services. ER’s are more expensive.

    ==Reduce pension contributions by 20% ==

    Why would you reduce them? That just makes the pension situation all that much worse.

    ==state services tax==

    I think a service tax is a good idea. But, as OW says, I’m not sure there’s any stomach for it.

    ==Limit state budget to no more than 2% increases==

    I’ve never been a big fan of arbitrary percentages. I think you take a look at core services and then go from there.


  78. - Anonymous - Monday, Feb 11, 19 @ 9:21 am:

    I cannot believe how ignorant the people on this forum are. Do you not realize the pivotal role the legislature plays in this process? How is it Governor Rauner’s fault when he tried to cut the deficit, but was overturned often by the legislature. Also, how is raising the minimum wage going to help the deficit (JB’s first move) when state workers currently making minimum wage will now make more? Blind ideology has gotten Illinois to this point. Reality is going to hit JB and his acolytes hard.


  79. - Harvest76 - Monday, Feb 11, 19 @ 9:29 am:

    ==I cannot believe how ignorant the people on this forum are.==

    The opening argument of the brightest minds rarely begins as such


  80. - Oswego Willy - Monday, Feb 11, 19 @ 9:51 am:

    ===How is it Governor Rauner’s fault when he tried to cut the deficit, but was overturned often by the legislature.===

    Yeah… no…

    No.

    Ask Drury, Franks, and Dunkin.

    Rauner chose to prevent 71 to save Illinois instead for finding 71 (or even 60) for his damaging agenda.

    Please, do keep up.


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